Social Impact of Out-migration in Anhui Province: One Step Forward and Two Steps Back?

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Social Impact of Out-migration in Anhui Province: One Step Forward and Two Steps

Back?

Sucheta Mazumdar, Duke University

Danan Gu, Duke University

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Outline

I. Out-migration and Rural China

II. Impact on Agriculture

III. Impact on Women

IV. Impact on Elderly

V. Case Study: Anhui Province

VI. Summary

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I. Out-migration and Rural China• One Step Forward• No other country has made the transition so fast as China from

predominantly rural workforce (71 % in 1978) to 50 % of work force in 2000. This transition has been seen as very much a success story.

• Crucial to the transition, initially through 1980s jobs were created through Township Village Enterprises ( TVE) (approx 125 million). The TVE allowed for commuting and continued rural location of workers.

• There was a drop in overall poverty levels in China when compared to 1978.

• Increase of rural income (almost 55 percent) from non-farm sources

• Migration of surplus rural labor to urban centers and remittances sent to rural China were also very much part of the story of poverty reduction and employment. It was actively encouraged by local officials as a route to poverty reduction

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• But, TVE growth and route to rural mobility has dropped markedly by the second half of 1990s. New jobs are located in urban centers, in manufacturing, service sector and construction that involves out-migration from the rural sector. The impact on rural China of this rapid transition, especially on married women and the elderly, the two groups most likely to continue living in the countryside, has not been extensively studied. Added to this, as explored in the conclusion, has been the urban bias of state policies that have increased the rural-urban divide in China today.


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• There were 34 million out-migrants in 1990, and females were 44%. In 2000, there were 93million according to 1990 criterion, and females were 52%;

• Sichuan, Anhui, and Hunan are the three biggest out-migration provinces, accounting for 16.4%, 10.2%, and 10.2% of total inter-provincial temporary migration, respectively; whereas Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai occupy the three biggest im-migration provinces, accounting for 35.5%, 8.7%, and 7.4%, respectively.

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% of out-migrants out of national total

16.4 (1)10.24 (1)10.16 (1)

Figure 1 Three largest out-migration provinces

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% of Immigrants out of national total

35.5 (1)8.7 (1)7.4 (1)

Figure 2 Three largest immigration provinces

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• Out-migrants has been dramatically increased since 1990.

• Female out-migrants are younger than male out-migrants.

• Compared with those of males, increase rates of intra- and inter-provincial migration for females are higher from 1990 to 2000.


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Figure 3 Mean age of rural migrants in 1990 (upper) and 2000 (Lower), China

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Figure 4 Intra-provincial and inter-provincial rural out-migration in 1990 and 2000, China

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I. Out-migration and Rural China.

• Who is leaving: • 15 % of total rural labor force China have left their

villages of origin, 88.5 are between the ages of 18-40.

• While proportion of female to male migrants has risen over the last 10 years, male migration outnumbers female in age groups after the age of 25.

• In 8 village studies (which included 3 case study villages in Anhui) it was found that of the total number of migrants 64.3 % was male.

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• Who is leaving:

• Both males and females with more years of schooling are tend to migrate out.

• Single men and women are more like to have experience of out-migration. This feature has been enhanced in 2000 compared with that of 1990.

• For male out-migrants, the predominant motive for migration is economic, especially for inter-provincial migrants. For female out-migrants, the motives for migration due to marriage and/or family share quite a few percentage points, especially for intra-county migrants. But such percentages have declined since 1990s, especially among inter-provincial migrants, and economic motive has increased.


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Figure 5 Comparison of education of non-migrants, intra-provincial out-migrants, and inter-provincial out-migrants, Rural China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Non Intra-p Inter-p Non County Intra-p Inter-p

Less than Primary school Primary schoolSecondary school High school or above

Males, 1990 Males, 2000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Less than Primary school Primary schoolSecondary school High school or above

Females, 1990 Females, 2000

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Figure 6 Comparison of marital status of non-migrants, intra-provincial out-migrants, and inter-provincial out-migrants, Rural China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Never married Currently married Divorced/ widowed


0%

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100%


Never married Currently married Divorced/ widowed


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Figure 7 Comparison of motivation of non-migrants, intra-provincial out-migrants, and inter-provincial out-migrants, Rural China

0%

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80%

100%

Intra-p Inter-p County Intra-p Inter-p

Economic Visiting rel./fri. With familyMarriage Others


0%

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80%

100%


Economic Visiting rel./fri. With familyMarriage Others


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• But while the focus of much of the current research is on out-migration: duration spent away is a highly variable factor. The vast majority of migrants, especially female, return to their counties of origin after a few years. Percentage of families migrating away out of the countryside is relatively small. Therefore, out-migration is linked to the long-term aspect of development of rural China.


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II. Impact on Agriculture

• Feminization of Chinese Agriculture• The share of women in the agricultural labor force in China has been

growing steadily. While in 1982 women constituted 46.2 percent of the agricultural labor force, in 1987 this rose to 50%, 1994: 50-60% and now in some parts of commodity grain production areas the figure is as high as 90%.

• Labor and Agriculture:

• Remittance, Consumption and Inflation

• Underdevelopment in the Countryside?

• Better educated leave; Effect of shifting from labor intensive crops to “easier” ones, and leaving land fallow. Disdain for Agriculture ; Falling output and food security

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III. Impact on Women • Property Rights

• Unequal access to village resources

• Unequal access to credit

• Lower levels of education and illiteracy among women

• Lower access of women to science and technology inputs

• Gender Relations, impact on mental health

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IV. Impact on Elderly

• Out-migration of sons, low remittances and poverty

• No retirement

• Why Pensions and Old Age Insurance Projects are unlikely to work ( example of Britain).

• Reintroduction of Childcare responsibilities

• Taking care of grandchildren classified as “unproductive labor” and low social status

• Physical Exhaustion Issues for both Women and Elderly

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V. Case Study—Anhui Province

1. Why Focus on Anhui?

1) Anhui is one of earliest provinces from which women began to migrate in 1980s.

2) Nationally, Anhui is one of the three largest out-migration provinces sharing 10.2% of total inter-provincial temporary migration in China in 2000.

3) The per capita income for rural Anhui population was 2585 yuan ($320) in 2000, lower than that for all rural Chinese, which was 3,146 yuan ($400); whereas the per capita income from dadong (getting paid work through temporary migration) for rural Anhui people was 312 yuan (40$), higher than that for all rural Chinese, which was 240 yuan($30) (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2002 ).

4) Anhui women migrate for shorter period of time, returning home often between episodes (more episodic), which enable researchers to gather data on out-migration.

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Figure 8 Five largest destination province for Anhui out-migrants

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2. Out-migration in Anhui

• For inter-provincial migrants from rural Anhui, three predominated destinations are Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, accounting 70%. Guangdong and Beijing ranks fourth and fifth preference among rural Anhui migrants, accounting about 15%.

• More females involves in intra-provincial migration. There are 3.3 million intra-provincial out-migrants (55% are females) and 4.3 million inter-provincial out-migrants in 2000 (45% are females). The corresponding % of females for China are 50% and 47%.


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3. Out-migration in Anhui

Similar pattern as all China was observed with some difference.

• Out-migrants from Anhui were older than their counterparts in

China.

• Less educated persons account for a higher percentage among out-migrants in Anhui than those of all China .

• Married and divorced/widowed persons in Anhui have a higher propensity to go out compared with those of all China.

• Social network, family, and marriage factors play more roles on out-migration in Anhui than in China.


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0.800.850.900.951.001.051.101.151.20

Male 1990 Female 1990 Male 2000 Female 2000

Figure 9 Ratio of mean age of rural out-migrants of Anhui VS China after adjusting mean age of non-migrants

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Figure 10 Ratio of selected variables of rural out-migrants Anhui VS China after adjusting the corresponding distributions of non-migrants

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0.0

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Figure 11 Ratio of % of motive of rural out-migration of Anhui VS China

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• Case Study data description:

• Data: survey on impact of out-migration on rural women (Sichuan and Anhui)

--conducted by Institute of Population Research of Peking Univ., and China Population Development Research Center in 2000.

• 12 villages and 1565 women aged 15 +.

• Two level modeling

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Figure 12 Per Capita net income for Rural China, Rural Anhui, and 12 villages in the Survey

Sources: China Statistics Abstract 2003

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China Anhui V_1 V_2 V_3 V_4 V_5 V_6 V_7 V_8 V_9 V_10 V_11 V_12

Village

RM

B (

Yua

n)

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Woman’s socio-demographic Characteristics

(Age, education, living arrangement,

Household size)

Husband’s Characteristics(Age, education,

Ever out for a month or more)

Family Economic status

(per capita income higher than average)Farming is the

most difficult issue when husband’s out

(Yes, No)

Out-migration(out for a month or more

Yes, No)

Community Indicators

(Distance to bus stat. ,village per capita

income, population density,

% of household with dagong)

Figure 13 Framework of the effects of rural females out-migration on family income and agriculture in the case of Anhui province

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Out-migrants Out-migrantsYes No Yes No

Farming is the most difficult issueTotal cases 656

(43%)868

(57%) No 74.8 62.1

Yes 25.2 37.9Age No. of children <25 13.41 5.76 0-1 65.40 47.93 25-29 37.80 27.07 2+ 34.60 52.07 30-34 37.35 47.24 Household size 35+ 11.43 19.93 2 1.83 1.50Education 3 43.29 37.67 Illiteracy 43.73 58.40 4 32.47 42.51 Primary school 35.78 28.27 5 13.87 12.79 Secondary school or above 20.49 13.33

6+8.54 5.53

Living with parents/ parents in-law Husband even out No 73.48 82.49 No 21.37 37.11 Yes 26.52 17.51 Yes 78.63 62.89

Table 1 Distribution of selected variables for the sampled women (%)

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Table 2 Effect of female out-migration on family income

Fixed Effect Coefficients S.E. PIntercept 0.0178 1.3561 0.9899Women’s characteristics

Out-migration before 1999 (Yes/No) 0.5077 0.1440 0.0004Age

25-29/15-24 -0.2242 0.2727 0.4110 30-34/15-24 -0.2229 0.3229 0.4902 35+/15-24 -0.0189 0.3747 0.9597Education

Secondary school/(primary) 0.4928 0.1520 0.0012 High school or more/(primary) 1.0977 0.2160 <.0001Characteristics of Husband & Family

Husband’s age

30-34/20-29 -0.0145 0.2147 0.9462 35+/20-29 -0.3577 0.2708 0.1868Husband’s out-migration (Yes/No) 0.4901 0.1432 0.0006Husband’s education

Secondary school/(primary) 0.3690 0.2150 0.0863 High school or more/(primary) 1.1378 0.2111 <.0001Family size -0.8946 0.1544 <.0001Living with parents/parents-in-law (Yes/No) 0.4547 0.3041 0.1350Number of children co-residence ( 2+/0-1) -0.1278 0.2166 0.5554Village factors

Distance to bus station (2+ km / 0-1) -0.2131 0.4564 0.6406Village population density (1500+/<1500) -0.0533 0.4215 0.8994Households with out-migrants (Most/some) 0.4289 0.4340 0.3233Village per capita income 0.0018 0.0007 0.0186

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Table 3 Three most important investment of earned money from Dadong

Invest to %

Daily consumption 86.6

Children's education 30.7

Build house 27.8

Wedding 26.5

Saving 26.4

Buy electrical appliance 20.4

Input in agriculture 19.5

Medical cost 9.0

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Fixed Effect Coefficients S.E. P

Intercept -1.0710 1.3415 0.4509Women’s characteristics Ever out-migration (Yes/No) -0.6104 0.1559 <.0001Age 25-29/15-24 0.0474 0.3342 0.887230-34/15-24 -0.0158 0.3833 0.967135+/15-24 -0.1997 0.4397 0.6497EducationSecondary school/(primary) 0.3682 0.1743 0.0349High school or more/(primary) -0.1315 0.2467 0.5942Characteristics of Husband & FamilyHusband’s age30-34/20-29 0.4499 0.2410 0.062235+/20-29 0.3609 0.3047 0.2365Husband’s educationSecondary school/(primary) 0.0437 0.2539 0.8635High school or more/(primary) -0.0373 0.2487 0.8809Family size 0.0922 0.1749 0.5981Living with parents/parents-in-law (Yes/No) -0.4441 0.3428 0.1955Number of children co-residence ( 2+/0-1) 0.3702 0.2512 0.1408Family per capita income (Higher than average/No) 0.3204 0.1701 0.0599Village factorsDistance to bus station (2+ km / 0-1) -0.2854 0.4311 0.5080Village population density (1500+/<1500) 0.0521 0.3988 0.8962Households with out-migrants (Most/some) 0.0311 0.4119 0.9399Village per capita income -0.0003 0.0007 0.7110

Table 4 Effect of female out-migration on agriculture production

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Yes No

No problem 13.93 14.63

Ask others for help 52.14 58.78

Labor exchange 21.43 12.50

Hire workers 3.93 6.38

Do nothing 2.14 2.39

Others 6.43 5.32

Table 5 What out-migrants do when they face farming difficulty

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Summary and Conclusion

• Two Steps Back? • • Enhanced Rural Urban divide in 2000.

• For rural China to participate in economic growth benefits, 12-15 million new non-farm jobs need to be created every year (Johnson, 2002).

• Unsustainable levels of urbanization?

• Limits to labor export?

• Post-Olympic 2008 end of construction boom and impact on rural China

• Models of Sustainable Agriculture

Social Impact of Out-migration in Anhui Province: One Step Forward and Two Steps Back?

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