Social and ecological systems interacting: historical and future transitionshistorical ...€¦ ·...

Presentation to the HENVI Science Days, Helsinki 2011

Social and ecological systems interacting: historical and future transitionshistorical and future transitions

Marina Fischer-Kowalski

Institute of Social Ecology, ViennaInstitute of Social Ecology, ViennaAlpen Adria University

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O tliOutline

1 The socio metabolic approach: a theory of1. The socio-metabolic approach: a theory of society-nature interaction and co-evolution

2 Historical transformations lead to a high energy2. Historical transformations lead to a high energy, high carbon society, as will be described. A sustainability transition needs to lead away from that

3. The role of the social sciences in comprehending the „Great Transformation“ to modern society. How could they provide guidance for a next transformation?guidance for a next transformation?

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 |

social metabolism

The dual maintainance and perpetuation of human society

Human society is maintained• Culturally: by a flow of self referential communication,

f (organized in subsystems of society (the economy, politics, law, education…), each with its own codes

• Biophysically: by a continuous flow of energy and materials from / to the natural environment (social metabolism), and by deliberate interventions into the environment (colonization)

Both modes of perpetuation are interdependent and indispensible

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i t t i t ti

social metabolism

l i ti society – nature interactioncolonization

cultural sphere of causationnatural sphere of causation

SOCIETY‘Sli

programmelabour

NATURE CULTUREBIOPHYSICALSTRUCTURES

meta-bolism

live com-munication

material world human society

representationevents

material world human societysocial

metabolism

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Social science family relations of the socio

social metabolism

Social science family relations of the socio-metabolic approach

• It relates to classical political economy (Ricardo, Smith, Marx)• It draws on sociological systems theory (Luhmann, Baecker, Simon…) in

it d t di f i l t t f i tiits understanding of social systems as systems of communication• it draws on ecological anthropology (Steward, Rapaport, Harris) • it draws on basic ideas of Latour ( actor network theory“): hybridit draws on basic ideas of Latour („actor network theory ): hybrid

structures, symmetry• It draws on Godelier‘s ideas of historical / evolutionary dynamics: it is not

th t l h i t h b l i ( i ithat only human society changes by learning (e.g. improving technology), but that nature changes through human interventions, and this in turn drives social change,

• thus creating a co-evolutionary dynamics. (see also Noorgard, Gowdy)

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The socio-metabolic approach

social metabolism

The socio-metabolic approachscarcity pollution

metabolic rift of global

bi h i l

Biosphere Biosphere

biogeospherical cycles

S SS S

Pre-industrial metabolism Industrial metabolism

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Model of social metabolism

social metabolism

Model of social metabolism

AirAir,Water

WaterVapour

Imports Exports

EconomicProcessing

p p

Immigrants Emigrants

DMI

DE DPODMI

DE=domestic extraction

DMC= domestic

StocksDMI=domestic material input

DPO=domestic

material consumption =DMI -exports

Domestic Environmentprocessed outputexports

source: after Matthews et al. 2001, Eurostat 2007

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C l i i l i l t

social metabolism

Colonizing ecological systems

• Colonization refers to the intended and sustained• Colonization refers to the intended and sustained transformation of ecological systems, by means of organized social interventions, for the purpose of improving g p p p gtheir utility for society.

• A colonizing intervention must both be causally effective in changing some biophysical process; it must make a difference in the world of matter. Likewise, it must be culturally conceived of organized and monitored; it mustculturally conceived of, organized and monitored; it must ‚make sense‘ in the world of communication.

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | source: (Fischer-Kowalski & Weisz 1999, p. 234)

Colonization of ecological systems

social metabolism

Colonization of ecological systemsResources / services gainedgained

Colonized system

Social systemNatural

Change induced through colonization

system

Work / energy /Work / energy / materials invested

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S t li

social metabolism

Systems coupling • Sustaining colonizing interventions requires certain organizational

provisions in the social system concerned; equally the continuousprovisions in the social system concerned; equally, the continuous receipt of certain ecosystem services creates dependence upon them. In effect, a structural coupling between the social system and its relevant

t l t lnatural systems evolves. • Colonizing interventions not only induce intended, but also unintended

changes in natural systems, and thereby put the required ecosystem g y y p q yservices at risk

• Thus, colonizing interventions may lead to a control spiral: over time, interventions may have to be extended intensified or changedinterventions may have to be extended, intensified or changed altogether to take care of unintended side effects.

• This may at some point be beyond the coping (learning) capacity of the social system: the colonizing regime has to change (transition), or the socio-ecological system collapses.

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W ki h b i t b li i

social metabolism

Working hours by sociometabolic regime

Average daily Trinket (hunters Campo Bello Nalang (permantAverage daily hours

Trinket (hunters & gatherers)

Campo Bello(swidden)

Nalang (permant agriculture)

per adult 1,2 4,7 5,9ECONOMY

3,2 3,8 3,7HOUSEHOLD

per inhabitantECONOMY

0,8 2,5 3,5ECONOMY

HOUSEHOLD2,1 2,1 2,1

HOUSEHOLDPopulation dens. (pers/km2)

11 38 43

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: Fischer-Kowalski et al. 2009

(submitted)

regime transitions

Transitions between socio-metabolic regimes

NeolithicRevolution

industrial revolution

Sustainability Transition?

?I d t i l Sustainable ??Hunters and Gatherers

Agrarian societies

Industrial societies coal | oil

Sustainable ? Knowledge society?

Socio-metabolic regimes

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: adapted from Sieferle et al. 2006

the energy transition 1700-2000 in regime transitions

the UK: from biomass to fossil fuelsShare of energy U it d Ki dShare of energy

sources in primary energy consumption

(DEC)

United Kingdom

90

100

biomass(DEC)

70

80

90 biomasscoal

50

60

Biomass

Coal

OIL/Gas/NuclearOil / gas / nuc

20

30

40 / nuc

0

10

1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: SEC Data Base

the energy transition 1700-2000 - latecomersregime transitions

gyUnited Kingdom AustriaAustriaUK

60

70

80

90

100

60

70

80

90

100

20

30

40

50

Biomass

Coal

OIL/Gas/Nuclear

20

30

40

50

Biomass

Coal

OIL/Gas/Nuclear

0

10

1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

10

1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Japan

90

100

JapanShare of energy

sources in primary energy consumption

(DEC) 50

60

70

80

Biomass

Coal

OIL/Gas/Nuclear

Japan

( )

0

10

20

30

40

Source: SEC Data Base

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1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1830 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Metabolic scale:

regime transitions

60Construction minerals

Global materials use 1900 to 2005

Ores and industrial minerals

Fossil energy carriers

Biomass construction materials

40

n to

ns]

ores & ind. minerals

materials

20

[bill

ion

fossil fuels

biomass

0

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: Krausmann et al. 2009

th l i

regime transitions

the coal regime

• The transition towards the coal regime started in the UK slowly in the g y17th century. Its link to the rise of capitalism has been well reflected already by the social science grandfathers (Smith, Marx, Spencer, Mills…), without much causal reference to its base for energy (coal). ) gy ( )

• This transition, for the vast majority of people, was unwelcome and forced upon them. Beyond its wellknown economic and technological features, such as wage labour, the steam engine and railroads, it was , g , g ,connected to the start of a demographic transition multiplying population; it removed the former constraints to city growth and to the mobility of people and commodities, it changed personality structures and opened p p g p y pup completely new realms of culture and meaning. This regime allowed the industrial countries to become colonial powers and use much of the world as their agricultural hinterland.

• the completion of this transition in the core industrial countries was marked by a world economic crisis and two world wars.

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last century’s socio metabolic regime transitions worldwide

regime transitions

last century s socio-metabolic regime transitions worldwide100,0 10,0

TPES/cap (primary y-metabolic

80,0 8,0

axis)

DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)

metabolic rates: annual resource use per capita

60,0

GJ/

cap/

yr 6,0

[t/ca

p/yr

]

Materials

40,0TPES

[G

4,0 DM

C [

Energy

20,0 2,01930

coal based-

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

-

coal based

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009

th il i

regime transitions

the oil regime• with the advent of petroleum, led by the United States, another major p , y , j

transition occurred that was much more welcomed by the people.• it brought with it a reorganization of population dynamics towards low

fertility; another major change in the organization of human labour (F di ) l ti “ i f d d ti th b kth h(Fordism); a „green revolution“ in food production; another breakthrough in mobility and transportation; electricity, „consumer society“ and the American way of life. Again the makeup of the human character changed (Riesman) and gender relations became fluid; democraticchanged (Riesman) and gender relations became fluid; democratic governance spread and the welfare state (New Deal), and an increasing share of the population could participate in education and knowledge; colonialism was abandoned and forests in the industrial core countries

ll d twere allowed to regrow.• The heydays of this metabolic regime ended with a first crisis of supply

of the oil fuelling it (which happened to coincide with peak oil in the US) in the early 1970s Cultural marker: Club of Rome Report of Meadows‘in the early 1970s. Cultural marker: Club of Rome Report of Meadows world model „Limits to Growth“

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regime transitions



80,0 8,0

axis)


metabolic rates: annual resource use per capita

60,0

GJ/

cap/

yr 6,0

[t/ca

p/yr

]

Materials

40,0TPES

[G

4,0 DM

C [

Energy1973

20,0 2,01930

coal based oil based-

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

-

coal based

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1973 2000 l t i d

regime transitions

1973-2000: a latency period

• since the oil crisis in the early 1970s material and energy use per capitasince the oil crisis in the early 1970s, material and energy use per capita stagnated (in the industrial countries and globally).

• Endeavours to find another energy source in nuclear power proved to be i d i k (Th Mil I l d d Ch bil) d did tvery expensive and risky (Three Mile Islands and Chernobil), and did not

really take off. • Key new development: information technology. It does have a potential y p gy p

to bring about a departure from the high carbon regime, but this was underutilized..

• Increasingly the exploitation of natural resources and the accumulation• Increasingly, the exploitation of natural resources and the accumulation of wealth failed to further improve the living conditions of the broad majority of people. In the industrial countries, mass incomes stagnated, labo r time rather e panded than decreased and elfare ser iceslabour time rather expanded than decreased and welfare services contracted.

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regime transitions



80,0 8,0

axis)


2000metabolic rates: annual resource use per capita

60,0

GJ/

cap/

yr 6,0

[t/ca

p/yr

]

Materials

40,0TPES

[G

4,0 DM

C [

Energy1973

20,0 2,01930

coal based oil based Latency-

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

-

coal based oil based Latency

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f

regime transitions

the composition of material input into industrial societies

t i l i t EU15 (t i %)material input EU15 (tonnes, in %)carbon

containing input

Biomass

total: 17 tonnes/cap*y

Biomassconstruction minerals

industr.minerals

fossil fuels

source: adapted from EUROSTAT 2003

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regime transitions

Material outflows from industrial societies

Wastes and emissions

D PO t o air ( C O2 )

outflows total: 16 tons per capitaWastes and emissions

D PO t o air ( C O2 )

D PO t i *

CO2

D PO t o air*

D PO t o land ( wast e)D PO t o wat er D PO t o land ( wast e)

D PO t o land ( d issipat ive use)

D PO t o wat er

unweighted means of DPO per capita forA, G, J, NL, US; metric tons

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: WRI et al., 2000; own calculations

th t d d t hi d i i

regime transitions

the past decade: catching up and crisis

• Meanwhile many developing countries emerging economies) haveMeanwhile, many developing countries, emerging economies) have started successfully to catch up, economically and biophysically, in their consumption of material input. They follow the same carbon intensive pathway often based on coal (which creates even more CO2 per unitpathway, often based on coal (which creates even more CO2 per unit energy). This has globally become apparent in a new rise of metabolic rates after the year 2000, although the metabolic rates in the industrial

t i i d t tcountries remained stagnant.• Now, we have maybe just surpassed a next world economic crisis. From

a climate perspective, this crisis had advantages: it reduced carbon p p gemissions. And now rising resource prices create pressure on industry towards increasing resource productivity.

• This may provide a certain moratorium but no major socio-metabolic• This may provide a certain moratorium, but no major socio-metabolic transition yet.

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regime transitions

Resource use per capita (metabolic rates) by development status and population density

20

25Construction mineralsOres and industrial minerals

15

20Fossil fuelsBiomass

Share of world l ti

5

10population 13% 6% 62% 6%

-

5

High densityindustrial

Low densityindustrial

High densitydeveloping

Low densitydeveloping (NW)industrial core rest of the world

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Metab.rates: DMC t/cap in yr 2000Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010


regime transitions



80,0 8,0

axis)


2000metabolic rates: annual resource use per capita

60,0

GJ/

cap/

yr 6,0

[t/ca

p/yr

]

Materials

40,0TPES

[G

4,0 DM

C [

Energy1973

20,0 2,01930

coal based oil based Latency-

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

-

coal based oil based Latency

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Projections of resource use up to 2050 – threeregime transitions

Projections of resource use up to 2050 three forced future scenarios

Global metabolic scale (Gt) Global metabolic rate (t/cap)150

Observed dataFreeze & catching up

18

Observed dataFreeze & catching up

Global metabolic scale (Gt) Global metabolic rate (t/cap)

100

le [G

t]

Factor 2 & catching upFreeze global DMC

12

t/cap

/yr]

Factor 2 & catching upFreeze global DMC

50met

abol

ic s

cal

6etab

olic

rate

[t

50m

me

0

1900

1925

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

0

1900

1925

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: UNEP IRP Decoupling Report 2011

Three forced future scenarios of resource use

regime transitions

Three forced future scenarios of resource use

1. Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic t f th 2000 d l i t i t h t trates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to same rates incompatible with IPCC climate protection targets

2 M d t t ti & i d t i l t i d2. Moderate contraction & convergence: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up

compatible with moderate IPCC climate protection targets

3. Tough contraction & convergence: global resource consumption of the year 2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic ratescountries settle for identical metabolic rates

compatible with strict IPCC climate protection targets

Built into all scenarios: population (by mean UN projection), development p p ( y p j ), ptransitions, population density as a constraint, stable composition by material groups

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010

h ll t t i bilit

regime transitions

challenge to sustainability

• a continuation of past trends clearly challenges the natural resourcea continuation of past trends clearly challenges the natural resource base for the social metabolism of future generations, as well as improvements of material welfare for present generations in developing countriescountries

• this reaches even beyond the most imminent and most politicized issue of climate change resulting from the high carbon content of our metabolism and emissions of CO2 and encompasses all resources, including food and water

• What is required is another major metabolic transition, and concomitantWhat is required is another major metabolic transition, and concomitant changes in the economy, in technology and in society

• which we need to bring about either by insight and reason, or it will be forced pon s or (most likel ?) a combination of bothforced upon us, or (most likely?) a combination of both.

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what can be the role of the social sciences in guiding

social sciences’ role

what can be the role of the social sciences in guiding such a transition?

• there are a number of indications of social scientists moving in newthere are a number of indications of social scientists moving in new directions, leaving the social science cocoon and taking the natural sciences seriously (e.g. Gidden‘s remarkable book about climate policy, Leggewie Beck Latour )Leggewie, Beck, Latour…).

• The belief in incremental progress has lost much of its attraction, though sometimes leading to an arrogant attitude towards „technological fixes“ – a new balance is required.

• Still, most of social science is far from being engaged in an active role in seeking for solutions. But we need to learn: There is no rescuein seeking for solutions. But we need to learn: There is no rescue planet in sight, nor is an alternative source of energy of the same density readily availability at a low price. There will be no other chance than going solar again and this will entail a very different structure ofthan going solar again, and this will entail a very different structure of society.

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di ti ti d


new directions continued

• Among the many natural scientists that observe with awe what is goingAmong the many natural scientists that observe with awe what is going on and what is threatening in the future, you find a desperate search for advice on how to change social behaviour (see NATURE Jan. 2010).Al d thi t b f th d t f th I t t A G ld• Already thirty years ago, before the advent of the Internet, A.Gouldner developed his theory of „culture of critical discourse“. He concluded that the capacity to rationally argue for – always relative – truths emerges as a countervailing power. This is what the IPCC is attempting

• The number of educated people in the world receptive to understanding complex arguments is rising rapidly. Politically, it is very dangerous tocomplex arguments is rising rapidly. Politically, it is very dangerous to deny the need for major structural change – it opens the terrain of discontent to simplistic, aggressive solutions.

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structural support for making a change


structural support for making a change

– world population growth has slowed down substantially, and its p p g y,decline will follow in the second half of this century; this can be accelerated by the empowerment of womenurbanization offers opportunities for material welfare at lower– urbanization offers opportunities for material welfare at lower resource cost. Cities suffer from the burden of overconsumption and are inclined to take action in changing their infrastructures

– there is or will be peak oil and impact prices– corporations are alarmed by rising resource scarcity and prices, and

start considering less expansionist and more saving orientedstart considering less expansionist and more saving oriented strategies

– there is ample potential of synergistic solutions: with health policy i t b it ith d l t li i f i t i i f dagainst obesity, with development policies for maintaining food

security, with labour unions about reducing labour time…

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Life expectancy at birth in relation to national income: In social sciences’ role

• Evtl preston folie einfügen!

1960, for same life expectancy less than half the income is required than in 1930!

• Evtl. preston folie einfügen!

Source: Preston 1975 (2008)

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Human development vs. Carbon emissionssocial sciences’ role

R2 = 0 75 0 85

HDI

2000

R2 = 0,75 – 0,85

20052000

19951990

1985 YES WE19851980

1975

YES, WE CAN!

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Fischer-Kowalski | HENVI Science Days | Helsinki | 4 - 2011 | Source: Steinberger & Roberts 2010 carbon emissions

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