SNOWPACK Modeling at the CAIC
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Transcript of SNOWPACK Modeling at the CAIC
SNOWPACK Modeling at the CAIC
Colorado Avalanche Information Center
CAIC’s Modeling History
• Manual weather obs for highway operations from 1950 in some areas and 1995 along most sections
• Formal database of automated wx data began in 2007
• CAIC WRF simulations became operational in 2010
• CAIC SNOWPACK simulations began in 2012
CAIC WRF
• Weather Research and Forecasting Model• Nested grids
– 12km over western US (230x200x37)– 4km over Colorado (187x187x37)
• 84 hr forecast, 4 times a day• Model run on two, 16-core computers
CAIC WRF
• Initialized with LAPS (Local Analysis and Prediction System)– Uses RAP (Rapid Refresh model) as background– Incorporates CAIC and MADIS datasets
• Forecasts use NAM 13km for lateral boundary
SNOWPACK
• Off-the-shelf snowpack model from SLF– Similar to model developed by Metero France
• Forced by either weather obs or weather model
• Used operationally by SLF Avalanche Warning group
• ASARC developed operational tool for CAC
2012-13 Density Evolution at RMP
CAIC SNOWPACK Effort
• 2012-13 season: SNOWPACK simulation of cover on Red Mountain Pass from CSAS Swamp Angel study site
• 2013-14 season: SNOWPACK simulations driven by observations for– Red Mountain Pass– Grand Mesa– Arapahoe Basin– Cameron Pass
CAIC Modeling Effort
• 2013-14 season: SNOWPACK simulations driven by CAIC WRF model data– Simulations every 6 hrs– 1 simulation for every WRF grid cell over 2700 m
• 3599 simulations
– Current visualization• Snowpack temperature• Snowpack density• Snowpack grain size
Questions?