SMC Global Monthly Report on Spices

Presented by:Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst

02 July 2014

Monthly Report On

SPICESJuly 2014

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1

Monthly Price movement of Spices NCDEX & MCX (June 2014)

Source: SMC Research


Monthly Price movement of Spices on spot markets (June 2014)

1.26

3.46

4.12

5.10

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

JEERA CHILLI TEJA TURMERIC CARDAMOM

-0.51

-0.30

2.78

3.00

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD) CHILLI (GUNTUR) JEERA (UNJHA) CARDAMOM (VANDANMEDU)

% Change

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7346.00

6904.00

6302.00

6754.00

6254.00

6574.00

5600.00

5800.00

6000.00

6200.00

6400.00

6600.00

6800.00

7000.00

7200.00

7400.00

7600.00

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Seasonal Index Monthly close price 2014

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Fundamentals

�Turmeric futures (Aug) would possible in the range of 6400-7000.

�Spot turmeric prices are decreasing in Erode markets on account of poor quality arrivals.

�Demand for the hybrid finger turmeric increased due to quality but enquiries for other varieties were limited resulting in half the

arrivals being unsold.

�Traders have not yet received upcountry demand. So, they are buying only quality turmeric for local masala and turmeric grinding

units by offering a lower price.

�However, there is demand for hybrid finger variety & fetching higher price.

�At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association sales yard, the finger turmeric was sold at Rs.4,299-6,377 a quintal; the root variety

Rs.4,099-6,199.

�Salem Hybrid: The finger variety fetched Rs.6,037-7,548 and the root variety Rs.5,531-6,461.

�At the Regulated Market Committee, the finger turmeric was sold at Rs.5,650-6,339 and the root variety Rs.5,269-6,189.

�At the Erode Cooperative Marketing Society, the finger turmeric ruled at Rs.5,420-6,345 and the root variety Rs.5,304-6,189.

�At the Gobichettipalayam Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Society, the finger turmeric was sold at Rs.5,517-6,547 and the root

variety Rs.4,806-6,189.

MARKET MOVEMENT AHEAD

Commodity: TURMERIC (Aug) Trend: Down Range: 6400-7000

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Turmeric futures Seasonal Index V/s Monthly close price 2014


July August Sept Oct

July - - - -

August -186.00 - - -

Sept -324.00 -138.00 - -

Oct -422.00 -236.00 -98.00 -

Source: SMC ResearchAs per closing on 30th June 2014

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Calendar spread of Turmeric futures


Forward curve of Turmeric futures

As per closing on 30th June 2014

6,574.00

6,760.00

6,898.00

6,996.00

6,300.00

6,400.00

6,500.00

6,600.00

6,700.00

6,800.00

6,900.00

7,000.00

7,100.00

July August September October

4

Fundamentals

�Jeera futures (Aug) is expected to trade in the range of 11000-12000 levels.

�Higher production current year and carry forward stocks Jeera supply may continue to pressurize the prices.

�Fresh supplies in international market along are limiting buying interest among stockiest and exporters at current levels.

�In Jodhpur mandi total 3 - 4 lakh bags carry forward stocks reported during the current period. Till now 50% new crop arrivals

traded in Jodhpur market.

�The export demand of jeera in local mandies will be under check at current levels on the account of fresh supplies from Syria and

Turkey in international market.

Commodity: JEERA (Aug) Trend: Range bound Range: 11000-12000

Jeera futures Seasonal Index V/s Monthly close price 2014


12127.50

11517.50

10025.00

10490.00

11135.00

11260.00

9500.00

10000.00

10500.00

11000.00

11500.00

12000.00

12500.00

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15



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Calendar spread of Jeera futures


July - - - -

August -225.00 - - -

Sept -440.00 -215.00 - -

Oct -520.00 -295.00 -80.00 -


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Forward curve of Jeera futures

As per closing on 30th June 2014

Commodity: CARDAMOM (Aug) Trend: Range bound Range: 890-970

Fundamentals

�Cardamom futures (Aug) is likely to trade with an upside bias. In days to come the counter hover in the range of 890-970

levels.

�The auctioneers decided to suspend auctions for over a week.

�As arrivals continued to remain thin, auctioneers have decided to suspend the auction from June 30 to July 11 citing “uneconomical

arrivals”.

�Following the announcement of suspension of auctions, upcountry buyers were actively covering.

�Ramzan buying has slowed due to inadequate stocks.

�The weather conditions have not improved as expected in major cardamom growing tracts such as Kumily, Kattappana and

Vandanmettu.

�The deficient southwest monsoon has created apprehensions about a possible delay in the new crop.

�There is also a hint of lower production.

� During the current season of the crop ending in July, arrival is

estimated at 21,134 tonnes against 15,040 tonnes during the

same period a year ago. Sales are estimated at 20,496 tonnes

against 14,409 tonnes respectively.


July - - - -

August 26.10 - - -

Sept 52.40 26.30 - -

Oct 69.40 43.30 17.00 -

Calendar spread of Cardamom futures


11,260.00

11,485.00

11,700.00

11,780.00

11,000.00

11,100.00

11,200.00

11,300.00

11,400.00

11,500.00

11,600.00

11,700.00

11,800.00

11,900.00


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Cardamom futures Seasonal Index V/s Monthly close price 2014


Forward curve of Cardamom futures


755.70

792.40

872.50

963.20

912.50

948.10

700.00

750.00

800.00

850.00

900.00

950.00

1000.00

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15



948.10

922.00

895.70

878.70

840.00

860.00

880.00

900.00

920.00

940.00

960.00


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Fundamentals

�Chilli futures (Aug) is likely to trade in the range of 9650-10300 levels.

�Firm sentiment witnessed in Guntur domestic market.

�The cold storage stocks are reported lower as compared to the last year.

�In Karnataka mainly land preparation in progress and transplanting in progress in growing regions. Districts covered Kolar,

Shivmoga, Dharwad, Gadag, Hassan, Mysore etc.

�As on 24th June, in Karnataka, total targeted area for Red chilli crop is approximately 37958 hectares during 2014-15 Kharif season.

Till date 3995 hectares has been covered as compared to1654 hectares last year same period.

�Red Chilli sowing in Andhra Pradesh has started slowly. As on 25th June, 274 hectares area has been covered as compared to 365

hectares last year. The districts covered are Kurnool (272 Ha.) and Chittor (2 Ha.). As of now, deficient rains have no impact on the

sowing progress, in the core chilli growing areas.

Commodity: Chilli (Aug) Trend: Range bound Range: 9650-10300

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Calendar spread of Chilli futures


July - - - -

August -206.00 - - -

Sept -314.00 -108.00 - -

Oct -616.00 -410.00 -302.00 -


Forward curve of Chilli Teja futures


9,684.00

9,890.00

9,998.00

10,300.00

9,300.00

9,400.00

9,500.00

9,600.00

9,700.00

9,800.00

9,900.00

10,000.00

10,100.00

10,200.00

10,300.00

10,400.00


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Disclaimer:

This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.

For further any queries, please contact

Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst [email protected]

Ph.: 011-30111000

Extn.: 674

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SMC Global Monthly Report on Spices

Economy & Finance

Transcript of SMC Global Monthly Report on Spices