SMB Chart Summitt 2017

Visit smbu.com/dailyvideo, email [email protected] or call 646.560.5953 for more information

5 Lessons from the Prop DeskMike Bellafiore, Co-Founder

SMB Capital and SMB TrainingAuthor, One Good Trade and The PlayBook

mailto:[email protected]


SMB TRAINING is NOT a Broker Dealer. SMB Training engages in trader education and training. SMB TRAINING offers a number of products and services, both electronically (over the internet through smbtraining.com) and in person. SMB TRAINING also offers web-based, interactive training courses on demand.

The seminars given by SMB TRAINING are for educational purposes only. This information neither is, nor should be construed, as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. You shall be fully responsible for any investment decision you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by SMB TRAINING or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs.

SMB Training and SMB Capital Management, LLC are separate but affiliated companies.

No relevant positions

Please note: Hypothetical computer simulated performance results are believed to be accurately presented. However, they are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and are subject to change without any notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since, also, the trades have not actually been executed; the results may have been under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any portfolio will, or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. All investments and trades carry risks.”



Benefits to you• Introduce some SMB traders trained from new to High

Performing Traders and why they have succeeded• Share some of the strategies they use to succeed• Share my favorite setup • Learn my new favorite trade to teach• Answer any of your trading questions• Offer a perspective from a unique seat in the trading

community• Introduce our free daily video as a new trading resource

for you • Reveal: The $million trader trading formula



Mattel Changing Fundamentals- My favorite trade

DenisMAT

Date of Trade (Jan 26, 2017)



Lesson 1: Trade Strategya) stock gapping downb) stock with a negative news catalystc) fight on the tape where the seller winsd) holding below VWAPe) no longer term technical support in sightf) staircase stepping down visually on our chartsg) hold short for a real move



Big Picture



Intraday Fundamentals• Reported earnings per share of $0.92, compared to reported earnings per

share of $1.08 in the prior year; and adjusted earnings per share of $1.06, compared to adjusted earnings per share of $1.27 in the prior year.

• "And while our sales at retail remained strong, the slowdown triggered elevated retail promotional activity and decreased shipping, all of which had a significant impact on our gross margin.“

• Gross margins from 50.2% to 47%• Red flag

•ATR- 1.12•Avg Vol- 4.47mill•Rvol- 8•Short Float 12.6%



Long Term Technical Analysis



Blog post about this in real-time- (smbu.com/blog)



Intraday Technical Analysis



Trade Management



Lesson #2:My new favorite trading setup to teach

• Our risk/reward is remarkable (1×10 and better)

• You know exactly where you are wrong in the setup so your exit is clearly defined

• This trade does not require many trade decisions mid-trade

• You see this setup daily

• It an easy trade for students to understand

• This trade has spurred floundering new and developing traders to become 7-figure traders



CSX- 3RD DAY PLAY

Bryan BCSX

1/24/17



Big Picture

• SPY WAS INCREDIBLY STRONG TRADING ABOVE 227 AND UP TO 228.08 BEFORE PULLING BACK A LITTLE ON THE CLOSE.

• CSX CONTINUES TO BE SUPER STRONG



Intraday Fundamentals.

CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, is a transportation company. The Company provides rail-based transportation services, including rail service and the transport of intermodal containers and trailers. The Company serves three lines of business, such as merchandise business, coal business and intermodal business. The Company's merchandise business consists of shipments in diverse markets, such as agricultural products, phosphates and fertilizers, food and consumer, chemicals, automotive, metals, forest products, minerals, and waste and equipment. The Company's coal business transports domestic coal, coke and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. The Company's intermodal business combines the rail transportation with the short-haul flexibility of trucks and offers long-haul trucking.

• ATR- 1.948• Avg Daily Vol. 15M • RVol- ~ 1.1• Short Float- 1.5%• Float 934M



Technical Analysis - 1 year



Technical Analysis - 3 Months



Exit• Break of the trend line• Vertical• Trades to target price• Something clearly different on the tape• Breaking news that changes trade• Reason2Sell needed before exit



ATI- EARNINGS BREAKOUT LONG AGAINST A LEVEL

Bryan BATI

1/24/17



Big Picture

• SPY WAS INCREDIBLY STRONG TRADING ABOVE 227 AND UP TO 228.08 BEFORE PULLING BACK A LITTLE ON THE CLOSE.

• ATI WAS STRONG LIKE BULL



Intraday Fundamentals.

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI) is a specialty materials and components producer. The Company operates through two business segments: High Performance Materials & Components and Flat Rolled Products. ATI's products include titanium and titanium alloys, nickel-based alloys and specialty steels, precision forgings, castings and machined components, zirconium and related alloys, precision and engineered stainless steel strip, and grain-oriented electrical steel. Its standard products include specialty stainless sheet and stainless steel plate. It is engaged in the production of titanium alloys, nickel-based and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, and vacuum-melted specialty alloys used in the manufacture of components for both commercial and military jet engines, as well as replacement parts for those engines. It also produces titanium alloys, vacuum-melted specialty alloys and stainless alloys for use in commercial and military airframes, airframe components and missiles.

• ATR- .661• Avg Daily Vol. 1.9M • RVol- ~ 11• Short Float- 24%• Float 102M



Game Plan

• GAME PLAN WAS TO LOOK FOR A PLACE TO GET LONG ATI

• I IDENTIFIED 20.20 AS A LEVEL THAT THE STOCK COULDN’T TRADE BELOW AND PLANNED ON GETTING LONG AT 20.30 OR AS CLOSE TO 20.20 AS POSSIBLE.



Technical Analysis -1 year



Technical Analysis 1 Month



Technical Analysis - 5 MIN CHART



Exit• Need a Reason2Sell• Wrote extensively about this in The PlayBook• Break of trendline• Breaking news that changes trade• Vertical to upside where now too much risk to be long from this price• Tape clearly changes• Time



This is SWang



SMB TRAINING is NOT a Broker Dealer. SMB Training engages in trader education and training. SMB TRAINING offers a number of products and services, both electronically (over the internet through smbtraining.com) and in person. SMB TRAINING also offers web-based, interactive training courses on demand.

The seminars given by SMB TRAINING are for educational purposes only. This information neither is, nor should be construed, as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. You shall be fully responsible for any investment decision you make, and such decisions will be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

This material is being provided to you for educational purposes only. No information presented constitutes a recommendation by SMB TRAINING or its affiliates to buy, sell or hold any security, financial product or instrument discussed therein or to engage in any specific investment strategy. The content neither is, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy, sell, or hold any securities. You are fully responsible for any investment decisions you make. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances. Such decisions should be based solely on your evaluation of your financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs.

SMB Training and SMB Capital Management, LLC are separate but affiliated companies.

No relevant positions

Please note: Hypothetical computer simulated performance results are believed to be accurately presented. However, they are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and are subject to change without any notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since, also, the trades have not actually been executed; the results may have been under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any portfolio will, or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. All investments and trades carry risks.”



Scalpers can make real $$



Lesson #3: Trade your niche

• Tier 1 firm fires SMB• Align your talents with a trading edge• It’s not just about finding a trading edge• Experiment, discover a niche best for your talents, trading

edge and then master that edge• The politest trader I have ever trained• Trader in The PlayBook



Lessons from Swang

• Trade your niche• Trade a niche that highlights your talents• Consistently and with a process push yourself to

trade bigger• It doesn’t hurt to be polite to the managing partner• High ability to process information quickly matters



SMB KTG- 4 years ago- So can you!



SMB Training home run- Finding Nadal



SMB College Training Program

• Nadal took the course • In-House for 6 weeks• Applied• Showed edge with his results• We got to know him in training• Gained a set on our desk• Had not graduated college yet



Lesson #4: Nadal trade - what are low floats?

• Generally low floats are stocks with <10M shares float

• High short interest >20% based on float• Highly manipulative• Wide spread• Highly shorted and potential short squeeze



Holding multiple time frames



Takeaways

• This is one trade that works over and over in a strong market

• Sector strength in strong market• Strong intraday charts• Strong daily charts• Highly shorted = short squeeze• >1-to-3 risk reward



Trade like a Shark



Lesson #5: Growth mindset• Do you have any more children?• Ivy league grad, D1 athlete, connected • None of the above• Growth mindset• KBIO 350k loss and became even better• Imbalances, automated trading, market plays • Partners begin to admire their best traders• Green $hirt



What is Vwap• Price * Shares/(total shares for the day)

• Barometer of the average participant's price for the day

• Used by big banks/funds as an execution strategy and an execution benchmark



Swing Entry – Two Day VWAP



Lessons from Shark

• Growth mindset best for trader improvement• Every trade is a gift from the market to learn• Let trades come to you



The $million trader trading formula

• Growth mindset + passion + foundation + experiment + niche + trading edge + train + A+ setups trade big + talent + bionic + patience + perseverance = $million trader



SMBU.com/dailyvideo



#1 Market Lesson

• “You can be better tomorrow than you are today!”- Mike Bellafiore, The PlayBook



Contact

• [email protected]• smbu.com



SMB Chart Summitt 2017

Economy & Finance

Transcript of SMB Chart Summitt 2017