Slides for Housing Advocates 2011
Transcript of Slides for Housing Advocates 2011
www.mhponline.org
2011 Slides for Advocates
January 2011
For more information, contact Leigh Rosenberg,Research &
Outreach Manager, Minnesota Housing Partnership
www.mhponline.orgContents
1. Employment
2. Housing Market
3. Housing Affordability
4. Focus on Renters
5. Homelessness
6. Future Trends
www.mhponline.orgContents
1. Employment
2. Housing Market
3. Housing Affordability
4. Focus on Renters
5. Homelessness
6. Future Trends
9.4%
7.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Unemployment Rate
US Official Rate, Seasonally adj Minnesota Official Rate, Seasonally adj
US, U-6 rolling average MN, U-6 rolling average
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), Minnesota DEED and US Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS)
U-6 uses 4-quarter rolling averages for Q4 08 onward and annual averages for 2005-2007. Official rate is U-3 measure.
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10
Residential Building Construction Employment, Minnesota
Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES), Minnesota DEED
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,0001
97
0
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
Units Permitted by New Building Permits, 1970-2009, Minnesota
Multi-family
Single Family
Source: MHP tabulation of US Census Bureau data
www.mhponline.orgContents
1. Employment
2. Housing Market
3. Housing Affordability
4. Focus on Renters
5. Homelessness
6. Future Trends
27,100
16,700
10,500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (projected)
Foreclosures: Minnesota by Region,2005-2010 (Projected)
Minnesota 7-county metro Greater MN
Source: HousingLink data. 2010 projection by MinnesotaHousing Partnership based on first three quarters of 2010.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Sheriff's Foreclosure Sales, Hennepin County, 1988-2010 (projected)
2010 estimate based on 1st 3 quarters. Source: Hennepin County, courtesy of Prentiss Cox; HousingLink.
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
(th
ru S
ept)
Average Home Sales Price, Twin Cities Metro
Adjusted for inflation (2009 dollars)
Source: Minnesota Housing Partnership tabulation of Minneapolis Association of Realtors data.
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Homeownership Rate, Minnesota, 1960-2009
Sources: US Census Bureau Decennial Censuses 1960-2000, American Community Survey (ACS) 2001-2009.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Racial Disparities in the Homeownership Rate, Minnesota, 1960-2009
White, Non-Hispanic
All
Non-white
Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0
Twin Cities Metro Home Prices 2008-10
Source: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors
Twin Cities Metro Home Prices 2008-10
Source: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors
www.mhponline.org
Foreclosure Risk
Remains
• High unemployment
• Potential for falling home prices
• Negative equity
• Possible rate resets and recasts,
though less of a concern
6.6%
02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Q105
Q305
Q106
Q306
Q107
Q307
Q108
Q308
Q109
Q309
Q110
Q310
Mortgage Delinquencies & Pre-foreclosure Notices, Minnesota
60+ Days Mortgage Delinquency Rate Pre-foreclosure Notices
Del
inq
uen
cy R
ate
(60
+ d
ays)
Pre-fo
reclosu
reN
otices
Source: Minnesota Housing Partnership tabulation of National Delinquency Survey, Mortgage Bankers Association & Minnesota Home Ownership Center data
www.mhponline.org
17
Foreclosures and Income
Loss/Reduction
Source: 2009 Foreclosure Counseling Program Report, MN
Home Ownership Center
• In 2009, 61% of homeowners seeking foreclosure counseling
from MN Homeownership Center attributed mortgage default
primarily to loss or reduction of income.
• Loss of income (usually job loss) : 32%
• Reduction in income (reduced work hours, reduction in
government assistance, or loss of part-time job) : 29%
• Compares to 50% of seeking foreclosure counseling in 2008
attributing default to loss or reduction of income.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10
Twin Cities Homes-for-Sale Months’ Supply,2005-2010
All balanced
Increased Number of Vacant Homes
Source: HUD tabulation of US Postal Service data
Vacant ResidentialProperties
Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10Percent
Change Sep09-10
Duluth metro 6,326 6,197 7,187 +16.0%
Mankato metro 1,369 1,553 1,765 +13.7%
Twin Cities metro 38,203 33,592 44,012 +31.0%
Rochester metro 1,933 1,933 2,988 +54.6%
St. Cloud metro 2,627 2,653 3,081 +16.1%
Minnesota 81,286 79,050 96,561 +22.2%
www.mhponline.orgContents
1. Employment
2. Housing Market
3. Housing Affordability
4. Focus on Renters
5. Homelessness
6. Future Trends
8.4% 8.5% 7.9%
13.3%
22.8% 23.4%22.0%
32.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1980 1990 2000 2009
Proportion of Households Burdened by Housing Costs, Minnesota
Paying 50% or more of income for housing
Paying 30% or more of income for housing
Data sources: 1980 & 1990: National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS); 2000 Decennial Census; 2009 American Community Survey .
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Households Spending at least Half of Income on Housing, Minnesota
Renters
Owners
Source: MHP tabulation of American Community Survey (ACS) Data, US Census Bureau.
9.6% 9.4%
10.0%
11.0%
11.7%12.2% 12.3%
12.7%13.3%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Share of All Households Spending at Least Half of Income on Housing, Minnesota
Source: MHP tabulation of American Community Survey (ACS) Data, US Census Bureau.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1980 2000
Proportion of Renter & Owner Households Burdened by Housing Costs, Minnesota
Owners Paying 30-49% of income
Owners Paying 50%+ of income
Renters Paying 30-49% of income
Renters Paying 50%+ of income
Pro
po
rtio
no
f a
ll h
ou
seh
old
s
Source: Minnesota Housing Partnership tabulation of National Historical GeographicInformation System (NHGIS) , 2000 Census, and American Community Survey (ACS) data
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Housing Affordability by Essential Service and Common Occupations, Minnesota
Registered nurse median earnings Middle school teacherNursing aide Childcare workerOffice clerk CashierFood prep worker Income needed for median priced aptIncome needed for median priced home
Source: Minnesota Housing Partnership tabulation of Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), Minnesota DEED; American Community Survey, MN Revenue Department Sales Ratio Study, Federal Housing Finance Board Monthly Interest Rate Survey (MIRS).
64.5%
5.4%
52.7%
15.6%
57.8%
14.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Income Below $50,000 Income Above $50,000
Proportion of Households Paying 30% or More of Income for Housing, 2009
Renters Owners All
Source: MHP tabulation of American Community Survey (ACS) Data, US Census Bureau.
www.mhponline.orgContents
1. Employment
2. Housing Market
3. Housing Affordability
4. Focus on Renters
5. Homelessness
6. Future Trends
12.7%1.8% 7.4%
-3.2%
13.8%
-21.1%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2009
Percent Change in Median Rent and Renter Income, Minnesota (2009 dollars)
Rent
Income
Overall, from 1980 to 2009, real rental costs increased by 23%, and renter incomes fell 13%, from $32,500 to $28,300.
Data sources: 1980 & 1990: National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS); 2000 Decennial Census; 2009 American Community Survey.
1980s: real rentsincreased while renter incomes declined.
2000s: rents continued to increase; renter incomes fell dramatically.
1990s: rents rose, and incomes rose faster.
www.mhponline.org
More Need for
Rental
• Renters expecting to buy in next 3 years:
57% in 2003 and 52% in 2009
• Renters who think homeownership is a
good investment:
79% in 2003 and 61% in 2009
Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, April 2010 Release
www.mhponline.org
More Need for
Rental
• Less rental affordability
• More foreclosures, less home ownership:
need for rental
• Limited rental construction in recent years
• Generation Y and Baby Boomer trends
$800
$820
$840
$860
$880
$900
$920
$940
$960
Q4 02 Q4 03 Q4 04 Q4 05 Q4 06 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10
Average Market Rents, Twin Cities Metro
Source: GVA Marquette Advisors
7.3%
3.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Q4 02 Q4 03 Q4 04 Q4 05 Q4 06 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10
Rental Vacancy Rates, Twin Cities Metro
Source: GVA Marquette Advisors
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Population by Age, MN, 2000 & 2020
2000
2020
Boomers and older
Sources: American Community Survey (2009) and Minnesota Demographic Center (2020).
Gen Y
www.mhponline.orgDemographics
Generation Y:
• Key first time homebuyer population
• Household formation down; more likely to
change jobs & location
• Limited income growth; tight credit
market
Baby Boomers:
• Aging in place, but also need for senior
housing
www.mhponline.orgContents
1. Employment
2. Housing Market
3. Housing Affordability
4. Focus on Renters
5. Homelessness
6. Future Trends
www.mhponline.org
3,0794,553
5,645
7,696 7,854 7,751
9,6546.9
9.9
11.8
15.6 15.6 15.1
18.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Homeless Minnesotans Identified
on a Single Night
Individuals counted
Homelessness rate per 10,000 persons
Source: Wilder Research, Homelessness Study, 1991-2009.
Rate per 10,000Count
161 157
204
232
260 257
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average Number of Homeless Families in the 4th Quarter, Hennepin Co.
Unduplicated monthly count of families seeking shelter through county-contracted shelters. Source: Hennepin County
www.mhponline.orgContents
1. Employment
2. Housing Market
3. Housing Affordability
4. Focus on Renters
5. Homelessness
6. Future Trends
www.mhponline.orgLooking Ahead
• Slow recovery from Great Recession
• Continued uncertainty in the housing
market (foreclosures, underwater owners)
• Limited new single family construction
• Increased need for rental
• Rehabilitation of existing housing
• Need to preserve affordable housing
• Potential for job creation
www.mhponline.org
Housing to Create
Vital Communities
Building affordable housing:
• Leverages public & private resources
• Creates jobs
• Generates tax revenue
• Builds lasting infrastructure
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