Slide 12-1Copyright © 2003 Pearson Education, Inc. Course Overview I. International capital...

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Copyright © 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.

Course Overview

I. International capital mobility a. Why international capital flows? b. The reasons of exchange: some aspects of international

trade and intertemporal choice

(i) Static analysis

(ii) Dynamic Analysis c. Recent evolutions of financial integration

d. The Balance of Payments

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c. Recent Evolution of Financial Integration

Empirical evidence:• Large CA deficits of the US

• Japan and more recently emerging Asian countries have an excess of saving

Current Account (2003), billion of US $:

US -542

Japan 138

Euro zone 36

Emerging Asia 148

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CA =S-I

Investment rates are high (US, Asian countries), CA differences could be explained by differences in saving rates:• High saving rate in Asia

• Low saving rate in US (high public deficit + low private saving rate)

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Investment as a percentage of GDP (2003)• US 18.4• Japan 24 • Euro zone 19.9 • Emerging Asia 30.7• Australia, Canada, New Zealand 22.1

Saving as a percentage of GDP (2003)• US 13.4• Japan 27.2• Euro zone 20.3• Emerging Asia 34.6• Australia, Canada, New Zealand 21

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These figures show that: I≠S ->capital flows

If capital is highly mobile between countries, domestic investment should not depend on domestic saving.

To measure the financial integration, some studies have tested the following relation:

I/Y=a+b(S/Y)

If b=0, capital is highly mobile between countries.

If b->1, countries behave as closed economies.

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Some results:• Feldstein, Horioka (1980) [15 countries, 1960-74]:

b=0.88

• Obstfeld, Rogoff (2000) [All countries, 1990-1995]: b=0.41

Degree of financial integration has probably increased between 1980’s and 1990’s.

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Course Overview

I. International capital mobility a. Why international capital flows?

b. The reasons of exchange: some aspects of international trade and intertemporal choice

(i) Static analysis (ii) Dynamic Analysis c. Recent evolutions of financial integration d. The Balance of Payments

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Balance of payments accounting• Helps us keep track of both changes in a country’s

indebtedness to foreigners and the fortunes of its export- and import-competing industries

Structure of this section• Some reminding about National Income Accounting• Balance of Payments accounting• Chapter 12 Krugman and Obstfeld, Chapter 20

Mishkin• Read “case study” in Krugman and Obstfeld p. 306

and p. 316.

d. The Balance of Payments

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The National Income Identity for an Open Economy• It is the sum of domestic and foreign expenditure on the

goods and services produced by domestic factors of production:

Y = C + I + G + EX – IM (12-1)where:

– Y is GNP– C is consumption– I is investment– G is government purchases– EX is exports– IM is imports

• In a closed economy, EX = IM = 0.

National Income Accounting for an Open Economy

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Gross national product (GNP) • The value of all final goods and services produced by a country’s

factors of production and sold on the market in a given time period

• It is the basic measure of a country’s output.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)– It measures the volume of production within a country’s borders.

– It equals GNP minus net receipts of factor income from the rest of the world.

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The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness• Current account (CA) balance

– The difference between exports of goods and services and imports of goods and services (CA = EX – IM)

– A country has a CA surplus when its CA > 0.

– A country has a CA deficit when its CA < 0.

– CA measures the size and direction of international borrowing.

– A country’s current account balance equals the change in its net foreign wealth.


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• CA balance is equal to the difference between national income and domestic residents’ spending:

Y – (C+ I + G) = CA– CA balance is goods production less domestic demand.

– CA balance is the excess supply of domestic financing.


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Figure 12-2: The U.S. Current Account and Net Foreign Wealth Position, 1977-2000


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Saving and the Current Account• National saving (S)

– The portion of output, Y, that is not devoted to household consumption, C, or government purchases, G.

– It always equals investment in a closed economy.– A closed economy can save only by building up its capital stock

(S = I).

– An open economy can save either by building up its capital stock or by acquiring foreign wealth (S = I + CA).

– A country’s CA surplus is referred to as its net foreign investment.


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Private and Government Saving• Private saving (Sp)

– The part of disposable income that is saved rather than consumed

Sp = I + CA – Sg = I + CA – (T – G) = I + CA + (G – T) (12-2)– T is the government's “income” (its net tax revenue)

– Sg is government savings (T-G)

• Government budget deficit (G – T)– It measures the extent to which the government is

borrowing to finance its expenditures.


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The Balance of Payments Accounts

Remark: CA= Sp –I+ (T-G)• An increase in public deficit may or may not lead to CA deficit.

• If Ricardian equivalence does not hold, public deficit may surely cause CA deficit.

• If not, public deficit and CA are disconnected since the rise in public deficit is offset by the rise in Sp.

A country’s balance of payments accounts keep track of both its payments to and its receipts from foreigners.

Every international transaction automatically enters the balance of payments twice: once as a credit (+) and once as a debit (-).

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Three types of international transactions are recorded in the balance of payments:• Exports or imports of goods or services

• Purchases or sales of financial assets

• Transfers of wealth between countries – They are recorded in the capital account.


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Examples of Paired Transactions• A U.S. citizen buys a $1000 typewriter from an Italian

company, and the Italian company deposits the $1000 in its account at Citibank in New York.

– That is, the U.S. trades assets for goods.

– This transaction creates the following two offsetting entries in the U.S. balance of payments:

– It enters the U.S. CA with a negative sign (-$1000).

– It shows up as a $1000 credit in the U.S. financial account.


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• A U.S. citizen pays $200 for dinner at a French restaurant in France by charging his Visa credit card.

– That is, the U.S. trades assets for services.

– This transaction creates the following two offsetting entries in the U.S. balance of payments:

– It enters the U.S. CA with a negative sign (-$200).

– It shows up as a $200 credit in the U.S. financial account.


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The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity• Any international transaction automatically gives rise

to two offsetting entries in the balance of payments resulting in a fundamental identity:

Current account + financial account + capital account = 0 (12-3)


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The Balance of Payments AccountsTable 12-2: U.S. Balance of Payments Accounts for 2000

(billions of dollars)

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The Balance of Payments AccountsTable 12-2: Continued

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The Current Account, Once Again• The balance of payments accounts divide exports and

imports into three categories:– Merchandise trade

– Exports or imports of goods

– Services– Payments for legal assistance, tourists’ expenditures, and

shipping fees

– Income– International interest and dividend payments and the earnings

of domestically owned firms operating abroad


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The Capital Account• It records asset transfers and tends to be small for the

United States.

The Financial Account• It measures the difference between sales of assets to

foreigners and purchases of assets located abroad.– Financial inflow (capital inflow)

– A loan from the foreigners with a promise that they will be repaid

– Financial outflow (capital outflow)– A transaction involving the purchase of an asset from

foreigners


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The Statistical Discrepancy• Data associated with a given transaction may come

from different sources that differ in coverage, accuracy, and timing.

– This makes the balance of payments accounts seldom balance in practice.

– Account keepers force the two sides to balance by adding to the accounts a statistical discrepancy.

– It is very difficult to allocate this discrepancy among the current, capital, and financial accounts.


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Official Reserve Transactions• Central bank

– The institution responsible for managing the supply of money

• Official international reserves– Foreign assets held by central banks as a cushion

against national economic misfortune

• Official foreign exchange intervention– Central banks often buy or sell international reserves in

private asset markets to affect macroeconomic conditions in their economies.


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• Official settlements balance (balance of payments)– The book-keeping offset to the balance of official

reserve transactions

– It is the sum of the current account balance, the capital account balance, the nonreserve portion of the financial account balance, and the statistical discrepancy.

– Example: The U.S. balance of payments in 2000 was -$35.6 billion, that is, the balance of official reserve transactions with its sign reversed.

– A country with a negative balance of payments may signal that it is running down its international reserve assets or incurring debts to foreign monetary authorities.


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The Balance of Payments AccountsTable 12-3: Calculating the U.S. Official Settlements Balance for 2000

(billions of dollars)

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Case Study: Is the United States the World’s Biggest Debtor?• At the end of 1999, the United States had a negative

net foreign wealth position far greater than that of any other single country.

• The United States is the world’s biggest debtor.

• However, the United States has the world’s largest GNP.


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The Balance of Payments Accounts Table 12-4: International Investment Position of the United States at

Year End, 1998 and 1999 (millions of dollars)

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