Singularity - it-cafe.ir
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مسعود زمانی
18 August 2015 www.it-cafe.ir
@masoud_zamani
@_innovcenter @_itcafe_
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The Best Way to Predict the FUTURE, is to CREATE it. (Alan Key)
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ریموند کورزویلRay Kurzweil
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OCR
text-to-speech synthesizer
computer speech recognition
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1990 1999 2004
2005 2012
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دنیای نماییExponential World
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خطی و محلی: دنیای دیروز(Local & Linear)
نمایی و جهانی: دنیای امروز(Global & Exponential)
•Wi-Fi•GPS•Google•Skype•Smartphone•…
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رشد نمایی و رشد خطی
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(2015)دالر 90-( 2007)دالر 40،000
چاپگرهای سه بعدی
سال7برابر در 450
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(2014)دالر 20،000-( 2008)دالر 500،000
روبات های صنعتی
سال6برابر در 25
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(2015)دالر 500-( 2007)دالر 100،000
Drones
سال8برابر در 200
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(1984)دالر برای هر کیلووات ساعت 30
(2015)دالر برای هر کیلووات ساعت 0.14
انرژی خورشیدی
سال31برابر در 214
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(2015)دالر 85-( 2009)دالر 20،000
(3D LIDAR)حسگرها
سال6برابر در 235
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(2015)دالر 60-( 2006)دالر 4،000
Neurotech
سال9برابر در 67
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2020درصد کاهش هزینه تولید تا سال 90نزدیک به
(گرافن)فناوری نانو
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(2014)دالر 1،000-( 2007)دالر 10،000،000
فناوری زیستی(DNA Sequencing)
سال7برابر در 10،000
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گام30
1،073،741،824
ر براب26محیط زمین
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رشد نمایی
رشد مستقل از رویدادهای جانبی
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سینگیوالریتی چیست؟What’s Singularity?
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یتیتعریف سینگیوالر
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School of thought-مکاتب فکری سینگیوالریتی
Accelerating Change
Event Horizon
Intelligence Explosion
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تیمسیرهای رسیدن به سینگیوالریMain Paths to the Singularity
Create an artificial intelligence that exceeds human intelligence.
Build human-computer interfaces that allow humans to go beyond their innate intelligence to a significant extent. (‘cybernetic singularity’)
Find ways in biology to improve upon the natural human intellect.
Build large computer networks in which ‘beyond human intelligence’
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Marshall McLuhan
First we buildthe tools, then they build us.
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1847 R. Thornton
1863 Samuel Butler
1958 Stanislaw Ulam
1965 I.J. Good
1985 Ray Solomonoff
1993 Vernor Vinge
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Siz
e o
f E
co
no
my
time in years
Co
mp
ute
r-d
om
ina
ted
Do
ub
lin
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very
1.5
years
Su
pe
rhu
man
in
tell
igen
ce
Db
l.M
on
thly
(Han
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-106 -1/10-10-101-102-104
Hu
nte
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ath
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sto
ne
-ag
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ra.
Do
ub
lin
g e
very
250’0
00 y
rs
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
eco
no
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farm
ing
.
Do
ub
lin
g e
very
900 y
ears
Ind
ustr
ial re
vo
luti
on
Do
ub
lin
g e
very
15years
2.5 mio BC 10’000 BC 1800AD 2025? 2040??
-103-105-10-7
2042???
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صدها هزار سالزبان
ده ها هزار سالنوشتار
سال400چاپ
سال50تلفن
سال7تلفن همراه
سال3یشبکه اجتماع
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Calc
ula
tions p
er
Second
pe
r $
10
00
Year
1900 ‘20 ‘40 ‘60 ‘80 ‘20 ‘40 ‘60 ‘802000 2100
10-10
10-5
1
105
1010
1015
1020
1025
1030
Electro-mechanical
Relay
Tube
Tran-sistor
IntegratedCircuits
Manual calculation
Bacterium
Worm
Spider
Lizard
Mouse
Monkey
Human brain
ParallelProcessors
QuantumComp.?
All Human brains
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PetaFLOPS 20:توان پردازشی مغز انسان
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PetaFLOPS 20:توان پردازشی مغز انسان
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Arthur Shopenhauer
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عصر تکاملی6
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؟آیا سینگیوالریتی قابل اجتناب استCan we Avoid singularity?
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Self-preservation?
Self-replication?
Spreading? Colonizing the universe?
Creating faster/better/higher intelligences?
Learning as much as possible?
Understanding the universe?
Maximizing power over men and/or organizations?
Transformation of matter (into computronium?)?
Maximum self-sufficiency?
The search for the meaning of life?
هوش چیست؟Intelligence
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استدالل در راستای رسیدن به یک هدف≈عقالنیت ≈هوش Intelligence ≈ Rationality ≈ Reasoning Towards a Goal
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Monistic VORLD
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What’s waiting for us?
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Our mission is to educate, inspire and empower leaders to apply exponential technologies to
address humanity's grand challenges.
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(150، ص 2، ج مجمع الفصحا)شاه نعمت اهلل
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