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Transcript of Singapore Property Weekly Issue 47
Issue 47 Copyright © 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.
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CONTENTS p2 Singapore Property News This Week
p10 Predicting the 1Q2012 Dip
in the URA Private Property Price Index
p14 Resale Property Transactions
(March 28 – April 3)
Welcome to the 47th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly. Hope you like it! Mr. Propwise
FROM THE
EDITOR
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Singapore Property This Week
Page | 2 Back to Contents
Residential
Freehold Cavenagh Gardens on the
collective sale market
The site located along Cavenagh Road is
asking for $460 - 480 million or $1,708 -
$1,782 psf ppr based on a 2.1 gross plot ratio
(excluding balcony allowance) or $1,553 to
$1,620 psf ppr (including balcony allowance).
The 128,256-sq ft site is zoned residential
and has a 269,338 sq ft potential GFA, which
can be further expanded to 308,920 sq ft if it
can be amalgamated with adjoining state land
which would bring the total land area to
around 150,000 sq ft, and the development is
granted the Green Mark GFA incentive or
bonus balcony gross floor area. This would
also bring the price to $1,598 psf ppr
(excluding balcony allowance) or $1,394 to
$1,453 psf ppr (with balcony allowance) or
lower with the Green Mark GFA incentive.
The expected breakeven cost and sale price
of units of a new development is $1,784 -
1,848 psf and $2,308 - 2,400 psf respectively
with amalgamation and $1,962 - 2,040 psf
and $2,308 - 2,400 psf respectively without.
The site is expected to be popular since it
can potentially be developed into high-end
residences, serviced-apartments or SOHO
apartments. This is especially since the site
located next to the Istana and near Orchard
road and has a redevelopment potential of
350 1000-sq ft units.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 3 Back to Contents
The tender will close on May 3.
Far East sells 109 Hillsta units
109 units at 99-year leasehold 416-unit
Hillsta project located at Choa Chu Kang
Road/Phoenix Road has been sold, with 90%
of the buyers mainly Singaporeans mostly
already living in the vicinity. The project
comprises condominium apartments, Soho-
style apartments with a 3.6 metres higher-
than-usual floor-to-ceiling height and 20
strata townhouses. A one-bedroom condo
unit costs an average of $1,042 psf, a two-
bedroom unit $984 psf and a three-bedroom
unit $918 psf while Soho-style one-bedroom,
two-bedroom and three-bedroom units costs
an average of $1,198 psf, $1,106 psf and
$1,093 psf respectively. Townhouses have an
average cost of $907 psf.
Top bid for Pasir Ris condo site 19.3%
higher than next highest bid
At $472 psf ppr, the top bid paid by Elitist
Development for the 251,036 sq ft site
located at Elias Road/Pasir Ris Drive 3 is a
good 19.3% higher than the next bid. This
might be due to the site’s location,
neighbouring a landed housing estate and
near amenities like Elias Mall and Pasir Ris
Park, as well as the positive outlook in the
Outside Central Region market. The nine bids
the site attracted is an indication of
developers’ interest in the residential market.
Given the bid price, the expected sale price is
between $900 to $950 psf. Nevertheless, the
site is expected to face much competition
from upcoming projects yet to be launched as
well as upcoming projects from government
land sale (GLS) sites.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 4 Back to Contents
Two adjacent sites at Serangoon Rd up for
collective sale
The first site, Serangoon Mansion is asking
for $23 million or $1,039 psf ppr if there is no
development charge. Nine walk-up
apartments with unit sizes of 1,141 sq ft to
1,195 sq ft sit on the 6,327 sq ft plot. The
second site, which is adjacent to the first, is a
two-storey shophouse at 23 Race Course
Lane. It sits on 1,314 sq ft plot and is asking
for $4.78 million or $1,039 psf ppr if there is
no development charge. Both sites are
zoned “residential with commercial at first
storey" and have a 3.5 gross plot ratio. The
sites could be redeveloped into a mixed
development with shops on the first level and
30 700-sq ft residential units on higher levels.
The expected break-even price is around
$1,500 psf. Buyers can either tender for one
or both sites by May 10.
Two freehold GCBs sold for a total of
$91.6m
The first Good Class Bungalow (GCB), a two-
storey bungalow at Ridout Road over 20
years old with five bedrooms, a tennis court
and swimming pool is sold for $60.6 million or
$1,490 psf based on its 40,679 sq ft land
area. The plot could potentially be subdivided
for redevelopment into two GCBs.
The second, a bungalow sitting on a 20,001
sq ft land at Binjai Park was sold for $31
million, or $1,550 psf. The two-storey-plus
basement bungalow which won the
Greenmark Platinum Award has six
bedrooms, a gym, home theatre, steam
room, lift, and dehumidifiers in all rooms. The
GFA is about 14,300 sq ft.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 5 Back to Contents
Commercial
Making industrial space affordable
Some measures in place to ensure the
affordability of industrial space include JTC’s
innovative infrastructure projects which help
SMEs to reduce business costs and the up-
front provision of capital-intensive facilities.
The upcoming supply of industrial land was
also increased to 24 ha in H1 2012, some
with lower lease periods. The project
completion period for the sites sold under the
industrial GLS is also reduced from eight
years to between five to seven years. These
will help to increase the supply of industrial
space and keep rents low. The government
may also sell the remaining JTC factory
spaces which are mostly smaller flatted
factories to owners and occupiers instead of
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
Hong Kong’s Chiu family sells 51 Parkway
Centre office units for $53.37m
The 51 strata-titled units located on the
second to ninth floors, and the thirteenth floor
of Parkway Centre, which has 68 years of
lease remaining, are sold to a company led
by Mr Kishore Buxani. The price of $53.375
million is equivalent to $1,043 psf on the total
area of 51,191 sq ft. The 51 units sold are all
leased out at $4 to $4.80 psf with a net yield
of 4.2%. These units make up 44% of the
116,950 sq ft total strata area in the 13-storey
building and 43% of the building’s total share
value. While the company may initiate an en
bloc sale of the entire building if other owners
are keen to do so, they intend to first
concentrate on increasing the value of the
entire building either directly or through the
Management Corporation Strata Title.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 6 Back to Contents
The building has a total of three retail units on
the first storey and 107 units on the remaining
storeys, with some on the higher levels
boasting seaviews, and has a large multi-
storey car park and the Parkway Parade mall
as its neighbour.
Oxley purchases McDonald’s Place for
$150 million
Freehold McDonald's Place at King Albert
Park located at Bukit Timah Road/ Clementi
Road near the future King Albert Park MRT
station has all its seven strata commercial
units sold for $150 million to Oxley Holdings.
The two-storey building on the 5,534.8 sq m
site zoned for commercial and residential use
has a plot ratio of 3. The price of $150 million
is equivalent to $2,918 psf of net lettable area
based on the current lettable area of 4,776 sq
m, or $1,207 psf ppr based on its 16,604 sq m
potential GFA and a $65.8 million
development charge.
60-year leasehold Aljunied industrial site
attracts 14 bids with $43.4 m top bid
The top bid of $43.4 million or $255.44 psf ppr
for the 0.63 ha industrial site located at Sims
Drive/ Aljunied Road came from Fragrance
Biz Space, beating out 13 other bidders. This
is despite the new conditions on strata sub-
division for industrial developments. However,
this is not unexpected given the plot’s location
in a mature estate and its relatively small size.
The site zoned Business 1 has a maximum
permissible gross plot ratio of 2.5. Its
expected breakeven price is around $400 psf
to $430 psf with an expected rental rate of
$2.80 - 3.50 psf.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 7 Back to Contents
Things to look out for at Changi City
As Singapore’s largest integrated business
park development sitting on a 4.7 ha land,
Changi City includes three-storey retail mall
Changi City Point, a 313-room hotel and a
business space tower, ONE@Changi City.
Changi City Point has a total net lettable area
of 207,000 sq ft with a 450-seater rooftop
arena for performances and other activities,
out of which 96% has been leased out.
ONE@Changi City has a total net lettable
floor area of 650,000 sq ft on nine levels,
315,000 sq ft of which has been leased by
Credit Suisse. The average rent is around
$4-5 psf.
UOL group to develop One KM
The upcoming three-storey-plus-basement
One KM currently being developed by UOL
group positioning itself as an edutainment
mall with enrichment schools and other
education-related trades since there are 20
local and international schools with a total
student population of 37,000 located in the
vicinity. There will be 170 to 200 shop units of
sizes 400 sq ft to 600 sq ft in the mall with a
210,000 sq ft net lettable area, out of which
20,000 sq ft has been leased to Cold
Storage. UOL will likely hold the retail units
for investment purposes and rent them out at
rates up to over $30 psf. The mall located
next to the upcoming Paya Lebar Central
Commercial Hub and near Paya Lebar MRT
station will have 530 car park lots. 244-unit
freehold Katong Regency, located above the
mall, is expected to offer 126 one-bedroom
or one-bedroom-plus-study units, 58 two-
bedroom or two-bedroom-plus-study units,
36 three-bedroom or three-bedroom-plus-
study units, 18 sky suites and 6 penthouses
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 8 Back to Contents
at $1,500 - 1,600 psf at its launch.
Office rentals to fall by no higher than 15%
in 2012 (according to analysts)
The fall in office rents is expected to fall by a
maximum of 15% in 2012, much lower than
the 20-50% fall in 2009 financial crisis. The
average gross monthly rental value for Grade
A office space in the Raffles Place/New
Downtown area fell by 5.3% to $9.76 psf in
Q1 2012 from Q4 2011. The biggest fall is
from Grade B offices in the Beach Road
micro-market, which fell by 8.8% to $5.21 psf
in Q1 2012. The biggest fall in average
occupancy rates for Grade A offices is in the
Orchard Road area, from 91.8% in Q4 2011
to 84.4% in Q1 2012. The average occupancy
rate in Raffles Place/New Downtown fell from
88% in Q4 2011 to 87.2% in Q1 2012.
Nevertheless, the overall islandwide
occupancy rates is considered fairly stable
with major lease renewals and the decent
take-up in newly or soon-to-completed
projects.
Demand for office spaces has been on the
decline as a result of the Eurozone debt crisis
and slower growth in the Chinese and
Japanese economies, which has led to
corporate restructuring and a hold on
expansion. The impact has not been severe
so far, but rents are expected to fall given the
cautionary stance many will take in light of the
uncertain economy and the upcoming supply.
Industrial properties the best performing
property sector in the Q1 2012
The average capital values for prime freehold
factories on the ground floor and upper floor
space increased by 4.8% to $633 psf and
5.3% to $560 psf from Q4 2011 to Q1 2012.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 9 Back to Contents
Prime factory prices also increased slightly
higher than the 1.2% and 2.1% growth for
their respective ground and upper floor space
in the same period. One reason for this could
be the new conditions on subdividing GLS
sites. Growths in rents, however, have been
slowing; with a mere 0.5-0.8% increase from
Q4 2011 to Q1 2012 compared to the 2%
increase in Q4 2011. The average monthly
gross rents for prime factory space are $2.39
psf for ground floor space and $2.08 psf for
upper floor space, while the average monthly
gross rents for warehouses were $2.47 psf
and $2.04 psf for ground and upper floor
spaces respectively. The rents for business
parks fell by 1.5% to $3.90 psf in Q1 2012;
rents for high-specs space also fell, both a
result of a fall in demand and an upcoming
increase in supply. Nevertheless, demand for
industrial space is likely not to fall a lot, which
should result in industrial rent declines not
exceeding 3% for the year. Capital values are
also expected to remain fairly stable.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 10 Back to Contents
Predicting the 1Q2012 Dip in the URA Private Property Price Index
By Getty Goh
URA released the 1Q2012 flash estimate for
the Private Property Price Index (PPPI) on 2
April 2012, which showed a moderate decline
for the index. Even though the drop was
marginal, it was significant as it represented
the first decline since the property market
rebounded strongly from the 2008 Global
Financial Crisis.
To the casual observer, the dip may come as
a surprise. After all, there were many media
reports on how strong new property sales
were in the first three months of 2012.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 11 Back to Contents
One of the local property portals even
reported that private homes transaction in
January 2012 was “a whopping 2,077 units
compared to just 670 in December 2011”.
Looking at such media reports, it would not
have been too unreasonable for many people
to go away with the impression that property
prices were still on the rise.
Trends in the Singapore property market
Those of you who have read my articles (see
blog by Mr. Propwise in Dec 2011) or
attended my weekly free preview would have
heard me share my bearish views since late
2011. Hence, this decline did not come as a
surprise. So how was I able to tell that the
market was at a tipping point? To me, the
answer lies in the statistical trends.
While my company relies on several
indicators to assess the Singapore property
market, I often use the Ascendant Assets
Indicator (AAI) to tell me how the overall
market is performing. The basic premises of
the AAI index are (1) a lead-lag relationship
exists between the stock and property market
and (2) we are able to tell how the economy
is performing by analysing the correlation
between the stock and property market.
To illustrate, let us look at Figure 1. The
correlation between stocks and properties is
observed to be high, i.e. when the AAI (the
blue line) is more than 50% (represented by
the dotted line). These phases of strong
correlation occur when both stock and
property prices are moving in tandem
upwards (during bullish economic conditions)
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 12 Back to Contents
or downwards (during bearish economic
conditions).
Figure 1: Ascendant Assets Index (correct
as at 2011Q4)
Source: URA and Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd
Phases of weak correlation (blue line below
the dotted line) occur when stock prices
diverge from property prices. This happens
because stocks, which are more liquid, react
faster to changing market conditions. As a
result, yellow phases indicate that the
economy is turning point.
Deciphering the market trends
If you were to look at Figure 2, you will notice
that past yellow volatile zones (highlighted in
red) coincided with the decline of the URA
PPPI (pink line). Based on this recurring
trend, I was able to tell that economic
conditions were gradually becoming more
uncertain and that a decline in the URA PPPI
was just around the corner.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 13 Back to Contents
Figure 2: Volatile market conditions and
the drop in URA PPPI
Source: URA and Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd
As the saying goes, “knowledge is power. The
ability to find good deals and knowing when is
the most optimal time to buy or sell a property
does not happen by chance. Now that you are
aware that such market trends exist, hopefully
you would be able to use it and make a more
informed investment decision the next time
round.
By Getty Goh, Director of Ascendant Assets,
a real estate research and investment
consultancy firm.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 14 Back to Contents
Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Mar 28 – Apr 3
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
2 ICON 657 1,238,888 1,887 99
3 MERAPRIME 1,098 1,450,000 1,321 99
3 QUEENS 1,195 1,320,000 1,105 99
4 CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY 883 1,450,000 1,643 99
4 CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY 1,216 1,800,000 1,480 99
5 ONE-NORTH RESIDENCES 592 900,000 1,520 99
5 HERITAGE VIEW 1,313 1,488,000 1,133 99
5 BOTANNIA 1,227 1,325,000 1,080 956
5 DOVER PARKVIEW 936 975,000 1,041 99
5 THE INFINITI 1,249 1,180,000 945 FH
8 CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES 570 932,000 1,634 FH
8 CITYLIGHTS 1,356 1,850,000 1,364 99
9 HELIOS RESIDENCES 1,668 6,001,900 3,597 FH
9 ORCHARD VIEW 2,530 6,360,000 2,514 FH
9 VIDA 527 1,190,000 2,256 FH
9 THE TRILLIUM 2,217 4,790,000 2,160 FH
9 THE COSMOPOLITAN 1,141 2,300,000 2,016 FH
9 PARC EMILY 1,227 1,963,200 1,600 FH
9 WATERFORD RESIDENCE 1,195 1,619,888 1,356 999
9 LANGSTON VILLE 936 1,260,000 1,345 999
9 OLEANAS RESIDENCE 1,668 2,180,000 1,307 FH
10 GALLOP GREEN 2,992 5,684,800 1,900 FH
10 GALLOP GABLES 3,111 5,300,000 1,704 FH
10 AVALON 1,582 2,628,000 1,661 FH
10 REGENCY PARK 3,175 5,250,000 1,653 FH
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
10 SPRING GROVE 1,012 1,600,000 1,581 99
10 SOMMERVILLE PARK 1,948 3,000,000 1,540 FH
10 PROXIMO 1,119 1,700,000 1,519 FH
10 THE ASTON 678 1,010,000 1,489 FH
10 MUTIARA VIEW 1,173 1,500,000 1,278 FH
10 THE TESSARINA 1,679 2,100,000 1,251 FH
10 THE SERENADE @ HOLLAND 3,746 3,830,000 1,022 99
11 PARK INFINIA AT WEE NAM 560 1,118,000 1,997 FH
11 NEWTON SUITES 1,238 2,330,000 1,882 FH
11 MONTEBLEU 807 1,300,000 1,610 FH
11 MONTEBLEU 807 1,285,000 1,592 FH
11 NINETEEN SHELFORD ROAD 947 1,340,000 1,415 FH
11 THE ANSLEY 1,302 1,650,000 1,267 FH
12 TRELLIS TOWERS 1,485 1,660,000 1,118 FH
13 BLOSSOMS @ WOODLEIGH 1,410 1,638,000 1,162 FH
14 THE SUNNY SPRING 1,109 930,000 839 FH
14 SIMSVILLE 1,528 1,220,000 798 99
14 STARVILLE 2,260 1,600,000 708 FH
14 WING FONG MANSIONS 1,163 815,000 701 FH
15 THE SOVEREIGN 3,305 7,000,000 2,118 FH
15 THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER 1,066 1,620,000 1,520 FH
15 THE COTZ 398 590,000 1,481 FH
15 PEBBLE BAY 2,174 2,960,000 1,361 99
15 COTE D'AZUR 1,109 1,488,000 1,342 99
15 THE WATERSIDE 2,142 2,850,000 1,331 FH
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 15 Back to Contents
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
15 THE BELVEDERE 1,302 1,728,000 1,327 FH
15 CASA MEYFORT 1,765 2,320,000 1,314 FH
15 COTE D'AZUR 840 1,060,000 1,263 99
15 PARKSHORE 990 1,200,000 1,212 FH
15 PALAZZETTO 818 920,000 1,125 FH
15 COSTA RHU 1,345 1,500,000 1,115 99
15 THE AMBROSIA 1,313 1,420,000 1,081 FH
15 THE AMBRA 1,130 1,190,000 1,053 FH
15 EAST GROVE 883 895,000 1,014 FH
15 GOLD LEAF MANSIONS 915 902,000 986 FH
15 THE GRANDIFLORA 1,087 1,010,000 929 FH
15 UNITED MANSION 1,356 1,250,000 922 FH
15 PINEHURST CONDOMINIUM 1,302 1,200,000 921 FH
15 EAST GROVE 1,055 960,000 910 FH
15 TELOK MANSION 1,550 1,200,888 775 FH
15 PALM LOFT 1,679 1,300,000 774 FH
16 COSTA DEL SOL 947 1,350,000 1,425 99
16 COSTA DEL SOL 1,313 1,650,000 1,256 99
16 RIVIERA RESIDENCES 786 930,000 1,184 FH
16 BAYSHORE PARK 936 880,000 940 99
16 BAYSHORE PARK 936 855,000 913 99
16 EAST MEADOWS 1,195 1,085,000 908 99
17 FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM 883 830,000 940 FH
17 AVILA GARDENS 1,604 1,320,000 823 FH
17 BALLOTA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,066 830,000 779 FH
17 BALLOTA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,313 906,800 691 FH
17 BALLOTA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,432 988,000 690 FH
18 EASTPOINT GREEN 958 770,000 804 99
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
18 MELVILLE PARK 1,206 860,000 713 99
19 GOLDEN HEIGHTS 764 960,000 1,256 FH
19 SUNGLADE 1,152 1,280,000 1,111 99
19 EVERGREEN PARK 1,238 860,000 695 99
19 HOUGANG GREEN 1,141 790,000 692 99
20 BISHAN 8 1,163 1,400,000 1,204 99
20 GRANDEUR 8 1,259 1,220,000 969 99
20 THE GARDENS AT BISHAN 1,152 1,060,000 920 99
20 BRADDELL VIEW 1,453 1,150,000 791 99
20 THE GARDENS AT BISHAN 1,367 1,080,000 790 99
20 SIN MING PLAZA 2,142 1,480,000 691 FH
21 GARDENVISTA 1,130 1,330,000 1,177 99
21 PANDAN VALLEY 1,313 1,330,000 1,013 FH
21 THE RAINTREE 947 950,000 1,003 99
21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,055 1,058,000 1,003 FH
21 PANDAN VALLEY 2,239 2,200,000 983 FH
21 BUKIT REGENCY 1,421 1,350,000 950 FH
21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,421 1,290,000 908 FH
21 BUKIT REGENCY 1,249 1,130,000 905 FH
21 HIGH OAK CONDOMINIUM 1,216 1,100,000 904 99
21 HILLVIEW GREEN 1,442 1,235,000 856 999
21 SHERWOOD TOWER 1,518 1,150,000 758 99
21 SHERWOOD TOWER 1,421 988,000 695 99
22 LAKEHOLMZ 1,507 1,255,000 833 99
22 THE CENTRIS 1,894 1,558,888 823 99
22 LAKEHOLMZ 1,496 1,208,000 807 99
22 PARC VISTA 1,270 1,010,000 795 99
22 LAKESIDE TOWER 1,970 905,888 460 99
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 47
Page | 16 Back to Contents
NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property
transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land
Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a
purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
23 CASHEW HEIGHTS CONDOMINIUM 1,658 1,558,800 940 999
23 CHANTILLY RISE 947 860,000 908 FH
23 CASHEW HEIGHTS CONDOMINIUM 1,227 1,100,000 896 999
23 HILLVIEW RESIDENCE 1,432 1,230,000 859 999
23 HILLVIEW REGENCY 1,195 970,000 812 99
23 NORTHVALE 1,087 820,000 754 99
23 GUILIN VIEW 1,259 935,000 742 99
23 NORTHVALE 1,087 800,000 736 99
23 REGENT HEIGHTS 1,163 850,000 731 99
23 PALM GARDENS 1,216 865,000 711 99
26 CASTLE GREEN 1,216 950,000 781 99
26 SEASONS PARK 1,066 820,000 769 99
27 ORCHID PARK CONDOMINIUM 872 720,000 826 99
27 ORCHID PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,249 838,000 671 99
27 ORCHID PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,249 800,000 641 99