Fear No More: Singapore’s Defining 2011 General Election by Netina Tan

Bangkok, 7th May.2011 Current affairs and analysis N° 1 / 2011

A Report by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation Regional Office

Southeast and East Asia Introduction Singapore’s 2011 General Election will go down history as the most crucial since 1959. Singaporeans are restless and in a new mood for change. As seven opposition parties fielded an unprecedented 82 out of 87 seats up for contest, the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) will face its biggest electoral battle the since 1988’s polls. The ground is not sweet for the PAP. Bread and butter issues such as rising cost of living, housing prices, immigration policy and income-inequality have fuelled widespread dissatisfactions. During the 9 days of campaign period, Singaporeans have been very vocal in their frustrations against the Government. Riding on the wave of anti-PAP sentiments, the opposition parties have made significant headways remaking their image and presenting themselves as necessary checks to the PAP.

The illusive climate of fear that had prevented Singaporeans from publicly supporting the opposition has dissipated. In this GE, Singaporeans are showing no fear as they throng the opposition rallies by the thousands cheering the leaders (picture on right) or heckling the PAP candidates during their walkabouts. Those who characterized Singaporeans as political apathetic may need to rethink what has possessed this once politically boring city-state.

An estimated 15,000 people at the first Workers’ Party Rally, 28 Apr 2011.

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The PAP is bracing for a significant drop in its popular vote shares. Even Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has expressed doubts that the PAP will maintain a 66% vote mandate in this GE. To appease the public unhappiness, PM Lee has made a last ditch attempt to win the hearts of the people by apologizing for its “ mistakes ” in mishandling the escape of terrorist Mas Selamat and flooding of downtown Orchard Road.

In a worst-case scenario, the PAP may lose 2 Cabinet Ministers and see the opposition’s seat shares increased from 2.5 to 12.5 percent in the House. Even if the opposition manages a breakthrough and win a Group Representative Constituency (GRC) or two, the PAP would still retain a comfortable majority and remain in power. At the end, the PAP’s incumbency advantage, party organization and unique electoral system will ensure that the wounded men in white soldier on after the Polling Day on 7 May 2011. What has changed? Demand for political pluralism. The ground in Singapore has shifted since the last 2006 GE. Despite the Government’s ability to lift the economy out of global financial crisis, earning double-digit economic growth rate in 2010, Singaporeans are unhappy. Public opinion surveys show that younger and educated Singaporeans want more political pluralism and less willing to accept that a hegemonic party government is best for the country. The demand for political

participation, accountability and transparency has grown. With the help of new media and the Government’s increased tolerance for dissent, Singaporeans have become more vocal in expressing their dissatisfactions both online and in public forums.

More younger voters and new media. This election will see a record of 2,211,102 voters on May 7, 80% more than the last election where only 1.22 mil people get to vote. About one-third of the 2.2 million people on Singapore's register of electors are under the age of 35 while about 100,000 or 5% of the total electorate are first time voters. A post 2006 GE survey by the Institute of Policy Studies showed that about half of those under 35 are categorised as swing-voters - those who can be persuaded by either the opposition or ruling party. Certainly, this has been a group of voters hotly pursued by all the parties. The Internet is now accessed by more than 78% of Singapore’s population (3.4 mil). As more rely on the new media for information and communication, the PAP government is anxious of its effects on the polls and at wits’ end flip-flopping on media regulation. For example, in 2006 GE, the Government banned Facebook, Twitter or podcasts during elections. And later, the PAP declared that they would mount “a quiet counter-insurgency against its online critics ”. However, by 2008, it lifted

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the ban on political films, videos and podcasts. Nervousness over the role of social media has led to the gazetting of a local social-political website, “The Online Citizen” (TOC), as a political association. As a political association, the TOC is now bound by the Political Donations Act, which among other things forbids donations from foreign sources.

Electoral competition has occurred both on the ground and online as parties have used new media to organize and expand their support base. During hustings, political websites, parties and the mainstream media have put up live tweets and video coverage of the latest rallies on the Internet. Before the campaign, netizens have turned to social media to scrutinize the background and experiences of candidates. Notably, a young PAP candidate, Tin Pei Ling was lambasted by netizens for being materialistic and immature after pictures of her flaunting a Kate Spade bag and a video of her stomping her feet during an interview. The fact that Tin is married to the principal private secretary of the PM also fuelled criticisms of nepotism. The rigour of the PAP’s stringent candidate selection process was also questioned when a PAP candidate withdrew his candidacy at the 11th hour, resulting in a last minute fielding of a back-up candidate on the Nomination Day.

Traditionally, the PAP has had the monopoly to set the agenda and terms of debate. But this GE, the opposition parties have used the Internet as an

alternative platform to raise electoral issues and explain its party policies. Statistics from online monitoring companies show that for the first 26 days of April - the day before Nomination Day, there were already 44,000 blog postings, Tweets, and Facebook updates related to the GE. The numbers are expected to escalate nearer the Polling Day. However, the opposition's online popularity may not correlate with their electoral performance. Voters may not vote according to their online preferences. Presently, studies show that Internet users still turn to traditional, mainstream media for dominant sources of GE news. The impact of new media on Singapore’s voting behaviour remains unclear and will need further study after the polls.

Electoral reforms and increased competition. To placate the calls for more opposition presence in the House, the PAP government has institutionalized the Nominated Member of Parliament (NMP) scheme that appoints non-partisan “ distinguished” citizens into the House for a 3-year term and raised the number of Non-Constituency Member of Parliament or “ best opposition loser” (NCMP) from 6 to 9. This means even if all the opposition candidates fail to win any seat in the GE, the new rule allows 9 top opposition candidates with the most votes to have seats in the House. In addition, the unpopular large sizes of

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the GRCs have also been reduced while the number of single member constituencies (SMCs) increased, from 9 to 12. Given more SMCs and smaller GRCs, the opposition is expected to have an easier contest. Since 2008, 5 new political parties have sprung up, boosting the total number of registered parties to around 28. In this GE, the opposition fielded an unprecedented 83 candidates, double the usual average total of about 40 candidates (1988 to 2001 GE). In this big slate, 62 are first-timers - the biggest slate of new candidates in two decades. The opposition would have fielded all 87 seats if not for a disqualification of a GRC team from the Singapore Democratic Alliance (SDA) for being 35 seconds late in submitting the nomination form.

More qualified opposition candidates. The opposition parties fielded many well-qualified candidates in the GE. More than ten high-powered professionals, businessmen and former civil servants with impressive academic credentials from top universities in the US and the UK who look more like PAP candidates, have joined the opposition. For example, the National Solidarity Party boasts of two Cambridge trained former government scholars, Tony Tan and Hazel Poa in their slate while the Workers’ Party has a “star catch ”, Chen Show Mao, a corporate lawyer with impressive credentials from Harvard, Oxford and Stanford. On the other hand, the new Reform Party’s (RP) secretary general, Kenneth Jeyaretnam

has double-first class honours in Economics from Cambridge. The fact that senior civil servants, who were part of the establishment “defected” also has a psychological effect of undermining the PAP’s image of invincibility. Many were especially surprised when Tan See Jay, a former Principal Private Secretary to Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong stood as a Singapore Democratic Party (SDP, a member of the Council of Asian Liberals and Democrats and partner party of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom) candidate and also, with the candidacy of Benjamin Pwee, a Cambridge trained former senior civil servant from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the Singapore People’s Party (SPP). These well-qualified candidates helped to boost the credibility and image of the opposition parties. Better opposition coordination. Months before the Nomination Day, the mainstream media has featured extensively on the disunity and internal infightings of the opposition. For example, the violent clash between the rival factions of the Singapore Malay National Organization (PKMS), the unravelling of the Singapore Democratic Alliance (SDA) and the mass resignation of central executive committee members from the Reform Party (RP) made headline news. Despite the bad press and public clashes of egos, this GE also saw the opposition leaders eventually rising above the fray and horse-trading to

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carve out battleground (picture on right). The common declared goal was to avoid three-party fights and prevent walkovers so that voters have the chance to exercise their rights to vote. Finally, on Nomination Day, some parties gave way, two independents pulled out at the 11th hour and only one constituency out of 27 ended up with a three-cornered fight – signifying better opposition co-ordination efforts. During the hustings, the opposition leaders also publicly supported one another, especially if they were unfairly treated by the PAP or by the mainstream media. High stakes strategy. The opposition abandoned the “ by-election strategy” used in 1991 GE, where less than 50% of seats were fielded so that Singaporeans can vote without fearing about toppling the PAP government. This time round, two long-standing opposition leaders WP Low Thia Khiang and SPP Chiam See Tong raised the stakes by leaving their SMCs, their traditional opposition stronghold, and led two teams to contest in the GRCs. In particular, the WP fielded a five-men “A ” team to stand in Aljunied GRC, against the PAP’s team led by Foreign Minister George Yeo. It is a high stakes strategy as the WP and the SPP intend to make an important electoral breakthrough by winning a GRC, for the first time since the scheme was introduced in 1988. If this strategy backfires, the WP would lose both the SMC and GRC and end up with no seats in the House. However, if the WP succeeds in Aljunied GRC, the PAP will lose 2

Cabinet Ministers and a potential Speaker of the House - a catastrophic outcome for the PAP. The wounded PAP will soldier on

Representatives of 7 opposition parties in a strategy meeting to carve out battlegrounds, 2 Mar 2011. The recent political changes and shifts in mass sentiments are necessary but insufficient for party alternation. The PAP’s incumbency advantage, massive party organization and unique electoral system mean that the playing field remains uneven. As MM Lee Kuan Yew said, the PAP will remain the strongest party as it has the best party organization, access to funding and resources to field all seats and run a more effective campaign. As in the past, the PAP has turned to pork-barrel politics, promising millions of dollars in estate housing upgrading and improvement in residential facilities to induce its voters.

The PAP will remain in power after the Polling day. As the electorate mull over the various party platforms and trade-offs in voting for the

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untested opposition candidates on the “ cooling off ” day, the PAP is hoping that its electorate will vote with their heads and not with their hearts. The 2011 GE is a

defining election as it marks the “coming out ” of the Singapore electorate and desire for a multi-party system. Whatever the outcome, the wounded PAP will soldier on and content with a larger opposition presence in the House.

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