since 1860
description
Transcript of since 1860
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
since 1860since 1860
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
monthly temperaturemonthly temperature
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Ice Age Return?Ice Age Return?
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Mann StickMann Stick
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
C-14C-14
C-14variationswith time
P.E. Damon and C.P. Sonett, Solar and terrestrial components of the atmospheric 14C variation spectrum, in The Sun in Time, eds. C.P. Sonett, M.S. Giampapa and M.S. Matthews, University of Arizona Press, Tucson (1991).
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
TurkeyTurkey
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Mann StickMann Stick
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
A brief history A brief history of climateof climate
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Little Ice Age
global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Little Ice Age
global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Little Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Little Ice Age
global warming
the “hockey stick”
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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global warming
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
other records?
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
-2K-2K
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-2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000-2
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-2
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Agri begins. Why?Agri begins. Why?
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
-9K-9K
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warming
Medieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
-10K-10K
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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Rome
VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
Agriculture begins
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
-12K-12K
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Ice AgeIce Age
Ice Age: glaciers &coast line
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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-20000 -18000 -16000 -14000 -12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
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Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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-4 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0x 104
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
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kiloyears BCE10203040 0
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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global warmingMedieval warm period
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kiloyears BCE204060 0
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
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kiloyears BCE20406080 0
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
-120 interglac-120 interglac
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
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kiloyears BCE255075100 0
vostokdeuterium
GreenlandO-18
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
-140K-140K
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm period
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kiloyears BCE255075100125 0
vostokdeuterium
GreenlandO-18
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm periodAgriculture begins
kiloyears BCE50150250 100200 0
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
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VikingsLittle Ice Age
global warmingMedieval warm periodAgriculture begins
kiloyears BCE100200300 0
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Mann StickMann Stick
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
IPCC predictionsIPCC predictions
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Technology Review articlesTechnology Review articles
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrickSteve McIntyre and Ross McKitrickMonte Carlo resultsMonte Carlo results
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
NRC T(t)NRC T(t)
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
So What?So What?
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
C-14 variationsC-14 variations
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
sunspotssunspots
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
sunspotssunspots
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Warming only since 1970?Warming only since 1970?
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
CO2 no offsetCO2 no offset
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
spectral windowsspectral windows
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
GreenhousGreenhousee
effecteffect sunlight
atmosphere
IR to space
Earth
H2O, CO2, O3
Physics calculation:
T increase by factor of about sqrt(sqrt(2))
= 56C
= 100 F
(Car in parking lot effect)
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Warming only since 1970?Warming only since 1970?
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Warming only since 1970?Warming only since 1970?
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
cloudsclouds
Cloud cover:the big unknown
Is cloud cover changing due to other effects -- either solar, or random, or …?
2% change in cloud cover would overwhelm human
CO2
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Radiative Forcings 2007Radiative Forcings 2007
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Svensmark & Friis-Svensmark & Friis-ChristensenChristensen
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
since 1860since 1860
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Warming only since 1970?Warming only since 1970?
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Acidify theAcidify theOceans?Oceans?
The direct effects of COThe direct effects of CO2 2 on ocean acidityon ocean acidity
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
AnecdotesAnecdotes
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Berkeley snowBerkeley snow
Berkeley 1885Looking East on Durant. Steeple is 1st Congregational Church at Durant & Dana.
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
swim suitsswim suits
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Jan 312002
Larsen BIce Shelf
Larsen Ice 1Larsen Ice 1
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Feb 17
Larsen Ice 2Larsen Ice 2
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Feb 23
Larsen Ice 3Larsen Ice 3
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
March 5
1255square miles
650 feetthick
720 billion tons
Larsen Ice 4Larsen Ice 4
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Amery IceAmery Ice
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Antarctica losing ice Antarctica losing ice massmass
Antarctic Ice Sheet Losing Mass, According to CU-Boulder Study March 2, 2006 University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have used data from a pair of NASA satellites orbiting Earth in tandem to determine that the Antarctic ice sheet, which harbors 90 percent of Earth's ice, has lost significant mass in recent years.
The team used measurements taken with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, to conclude the Antarctic ice sheet is losing up to 36 cubic miles of ice, or 152 cubic kilometers, annually. By comparison, the city of Los Angeles uses about 1 cubic mile of fresh water annually. "This is the first study to indicate the total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is in significant decline," said Isabella Velicogna of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, chief author of the new study that appears in the March 2 online issue of Science Express.
The study was co-authored by CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr of CIRES, a joint campus institute of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The estimated ice mass in Antarctica is equivalent to 0.4 millimeters of global sea rise annually, with a margin of error of 0.2 millimeters, according to the study. There are about 25 millimeters in an inch.
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, completed in 2001, predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate. But the new study signals a reduction in the continent's total ice mass, with the bulk of loss occurring in the West Antarctic ice sheet, said Velicogna.
Researchers used GRACE data to calculate the total ice mass in Antarctica between April 2002 and August 2005 for the study, said Velicogna, who also is affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Inconvenient Truth CO2 & TInconvenient Truth CO2 & T
from “An Inconvenient Truth” by Al Gore
“Here is an important point. If my classmate from sixth grade were to see this -- you remember, the guy who asked about South America and Africa [continental drift] -- he would ask, “Did they ever fit together? “The answer from the scientists would be, ‘Yes, they do fit together.’ “It’s a complicated relationship, but the most important part of it is this: When there is more CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature increases because more heat from the sun is trapped inside…. “There is not a single part of this graph -- no fact, date, or number -- that is controversial in any way or is disputed by anybody. “To the extent that there is a controversy at all, it is that a few people in some of the less responsible coal, oil, and utility companies say, ‘So what? That’s not going to cause any problem.’ “But if we allow this to happen, it would be deeply and unforgivably immoral.”
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
CO2 lags climateCO2 lags climate
N. Caillon et al., Science vol 299, 1728, 14 March 2003
Temperature change precedes CO2 change by 800 ± 200 yrs
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
GreenlandGreenland
“Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that because of what is happening in Greenland right now, the maps of the World will have to be redrawn.“If Greenland melted or broke up and slipped into the sea -- or if half of Greenland and half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet.
Al Gore -- An Inconvenient Truth
Calculations by the Hadley Centerfor Climate Change, Met Office
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Thermohaline Circulation Thermohaline Circulation Turn off?Turn off?
Atlantic ocean circulationAtlantic ocean circulationpredicted to declinepredicted to decline
but not switch offbut not switch off
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Intense hurricanesIntense hurricanes
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
NOAA Annual PublicationNOAA Annual PublicationThe Climate of 2006The Climate of 2006
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
wildfires - both plotswildfires - both plots
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
tornadoestornadoes
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Asian SootAsian Soot
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
rainfallrainfall
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
since 1860since 1860
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Hansen plot revisedHansen plot revised
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Playing with Playing with dynamitedynamite
We are adding enough CO2 to We are adding enough CO2 to the atmosphere that we need the atmosphere that we need
to worry.to worry.
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
What do we What do we do?do?
Conservation
China
Carbon Credits
Clean Coal
C6
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
World energy useWorld energy use
GDP for most countries GDP for most countries correlates with energy usecorrelates with energy use
(plot courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
oil foreveroil forever
We are running out of cheap ($20/bbl) oilWe are running out of cheap ($20/bbl) oil We are NOT running out of expensive ($50/bbl) oilWe are NOT running out of expensive ($50/bbl) oil At that price, coal can be converted to diesel fuel At that price, coal can be converted to diesel fuel
(Fisher-Tropsch process). That implies an “infinite” (Fisher-Tropsch process). That implies an “infinite” supply.supply.
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
cost of coalcost of coal
fuelfuel market costmarket cost cost per kWh cost per kWh (1000 Cal)(1000 Cal)
cost if cost if converted to converted to electricityelectricity
coalcoal $40 per ton$40 per ton 0.6¢0.6¢ 1.8¢1.8¢
natural gasnatural gas $10 per $10 per million cubic million cubic feetfeet
3¢3¢ 9¢9¢
gasolinegasoline $3 per gallon$3 per gallon 9¢9¢ 27¢27¢
electricityelectricity $0.10 per $0.10 per kWhkWh
10¢10¢ 10¢10¢
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
The Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto Treaty
Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
The Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto Treaty
Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)
Ratified by 164 nations (US signed but didn’t ratify)
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
The Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto Treaty
Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)
Ratified by 164 nations (US signed but didn’t ratify)
No restrictions on China or India
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
The Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto Treaty
Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)
Ratified by 164 nations (US signed but didn’t ratify)
No restrictions on China or IndiaUS Senate Byrd-Hagel resolution:
95-0 binding targets and timetables for developing nations
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
The Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto Treaty
Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO2 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)
Ratified by 164 nations (US signed but didn’t ratify)
No restrictions on China or IndiaUS Senate Byrd-Hagel resolution:
95-0
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
The Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto Treaty
China: currently building one new gigawatt coal power plant every week…
plus two new gigawatt nuclear reactors per year.
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
China and IndiaChina and India
(Numbers courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)
2121stst century emissions from the Developing World will century emissions from the Developing World will surpass those of Industrialized World 2015-2025surpass those of Industrialized World 2015-2025
Developing world emissions growing at 2.8% Developing world emissions growing at 2.8% vs industrialized world growing at 1.2%vs industrialized world growing at 1.2%
Sobering factsSobering facts
When Developing World carbon ≥ Industrial World carbon, When Developing World carbon ≥ Industrial World carbon, each 10% reduction in industrial world emissions is each 10% reduction in industrial world emissions is
overcome by overcome by < 4 years< 4 years of developing world growth of developing world growth
If China’s (or If China’s (or India’sIndia’s) per capita emissions were those of Japan, ) per capita emissions were those of Japan, global emissions would be 40% higher than todayglobal emissions would be 40% higher than today
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
The Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto TreatyThe Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
If global warming is caused by greenhouse emissions, and the US ratifies the treaty, then the temperature rise will be delayed by at most, a few years.
Unless China and India agree to reductions, use non-yet existing conservation techniques, or sequester.
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
A Really Inconvenient TruthA Really Inconvenient TruthLarge reserves of natural oil are recoverable at $50-70 /bbl Fisher-Tropsch process allows diesel to be made from coal at about $40-$50 bbl
done by Nazis in WWIIdone by South Africa for last several decades
We are not going to run out of fossil fuels!
The future of global warming -- if human caused -- depends on China and India.
Who will pay?
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
China CO2 surpassing USChina CO2 surpassing US
China COChina CO22 surpasses surpasses US COUS CO22
in 2007?in 2007?
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
IGCC integrated gas IGCC integrated gas combined cyclecombined cycle
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Energy flowEnergy flow
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Global WarmingGlobal Warminga bigger issue:a bigger issue:What is the proper role What is the proper role
of scientists?of scientists?
… … to analyze dispassionately and to analyze dispassionately and report without prejudice?report without prejudice?
… … to spin the results to avoid the risk to spin the results to avoid the risk that the public will misinterpret or that the public will misinterpret or
underestimate the dangers?underestimate the dangers?
oror
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
from An Inconvenient Truthby Al Gore
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
Josh Billings(a 19th century humorist)
The trouble with most folks isn’t so much their ignorance --it’s known’ so many things that ain’t so.
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
What do we What do we do?do?
Conservation
Chinese Clean Coal
Carbon Credits
C5
compact fluorescents in Notre Dame de Paris
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
1998 was the warmest year on record!
Is another cooling spell possible?
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
CO2 for 550 Myr RohdeCO2 for 550 Myr Rohde
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
65 Myr climate Rohde65 Myr climate Rohde
plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
sea level risesea level rise
plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia
Richard A MullerUC Berkeley
cloud numberscloud numbers
HighHighthinthin
HighHighthickthick
middlemiddlethinthin
middlemiddlethickthick
all lowall lowcloudsclouds
TotalTotal
global global fraction (%)fraction (%) +10.1+10.1 +8.6+8.6 +10.7+10.7 +7.3+7.3 +26.6+26.6 +63+63
ForcingForcingAlbedo Albedo (W/m(W/m22))
-4.1-4.1 -15.6-15.6 -3.7-3.7 -9.9-9.9 -20.2-20.2 -53.5-53.5
Outgoing Outgoing IR (W/mIR (W/m22)) +6.5+6.5 +8.6+8.6 +4.8+4.8 +2.4+2.4 +3.5+3.5 +25.8+25.8
Net Net forcing forcing (W/m(W/m22))
2.42.4 -7.0-7.0 +1.1+1.1 -7.5-7.5 -16.7-16.7 -27.7-27.7
Role of clouds
c.f. insolation variations rms = 18 W/m2
Richard A Muller
UC Berkeley
HavanaHavana
Havana 2003 (vs 1850)