Simulation Model Concepts v2. Intent Illustrate the use of simulation models Subject a draft design...
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Transcript of Simulation Model Concepts v2. Intent Illustrate the use of simulation models Subject a draft design...
Simulation Model Concepts
v2
Intent
Illustrate the use of simulation models Subject a draft design to a battery of tests
Illustrate the concept of performance measures Compare outcomes for alternative designs
Lead into a discussion of model scoping Design models to explore specific questions
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100,000 200,000 300,0000
20%
40%
60%
Run Size
Tota
l A
llow
ab
le M
ort
ality
Harvest Rule Simulated Trajectories
Population Model
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
How to compare the 2 piles of pasta?
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Pasta Performance Measures
Avg length = 23cmNoodles<10cm=15%Done = soft
Avg length = 26cmNoodles<10cm = 5%Done = Al dente
Fish Performance Measures
Median Spawner AbdSpawners < BM2 = x%Variability in Spawners
“ All models are wrong, but some are useful”
G.P.E Box
Vs.
Developed by
Gottfried Pestal and Tatiana Tunon SOLV Consulting Ltd.www.solv.ca
Incorporating ideas from
Ann-Marie Huang, Mike Staley, Pete Nicklin, Jamie Scroggie, and Rick Stanley
All images via Google image search.