Simulating Geopolitical Decision Making Processes With

LeaderSIMBarry Silverman

Mike JohnsGnana Barthy

Evan SandhausJanuary 2006

PMFServ ArchitectureStimuli

Biology/Stress

Personality, Culture, Emotion

PMFserv

Cognitive

Response

Social Module

Expression

Simulated World

Physiolo-gy Tanks

•sleep•nutrition

•injury

Janis-Mann

Gillis-Hursh

Inte-grated Stress

Energy Tank

Status

CopingStyle

NegativeEmotions

TimePressure

EF ES

TP

PhysiologyUpdates Coping Style

GibsonAffordance

LEGEND: Implements Interprets NewLiterature Literature PMF

Perception

ValueTrees(GSP, Bayes)

Subj.Utility

(Damasio)

Cog.App.(OCC)

SEU

GSPNodeFail/Succeed

Emotions(11 pairs)

Action Choices Afforded

Current World State:GSP Leaf NodeAffordance Updates

AugmentedDecisionTheory

IntentionManagement

NestedIntent-ionalityProc’g

Relationship Tanks•Alignment

•Credibility/Trust•Cognitive Unit

•Valence

iStress

Identity Properties

•Demography•SocialGroup

•Role

Observations of Other Agents

Updates

Relationship ParameterLevels

Action Choice (physical, speech)

Emotions(11 pairs)

SEU

Candidate Action

Relationship ParameterLevels

BR

EV

Memory

PMFServ ArchitectureStimuli

Biology Module/Stress

Personality,Culture,Emotion

Memory

Cognitive

Response

be free

help others

support terrorist

hide terrorist distract guards

crowd together block guards vision

be independent

sacrifice life

protect terrorist

survive

run for cover

protect children

TBR = E [ P U(st, at) ]

t=1+

-

Perception Module Expression

Social Module,Relations,Trust

Agents in Role Playing Game Simulations

Intentions/GSP Trees•Needs & Wants

•Culture & Personality•Relationships & Trust

Model of Others’Intentions/GSPs

Stressors/Personality& Coping Style

PMFserv•Perception•Subj.Utility•Hot Reaction

PMFserv•Obj.Utility•Cold Delibertn•Game Theory

Discourse•Bluffing•Deception•Threats/Pacts

GameWorld•Territory•Resources•Groups•Threats•Tributes•Bluffs•Battles•etc.

Intentions/GSP Trees•Needs & Wants

•Culture & Personality•Relationships & Trust

Model of Others’Intentions/GSPs

Stressors/Stimulants& Coping Style

PMFserv•Perception•Subj.Utility•Hot Reaction

PMFserv•Obj.Utility•Cold Delibtn•Game Theory

Discourse•Bluffing•Deception•Threats/Pacts

Agent Agent

Human

Actions

Utterances

Actions

Utterances

ActionsUtterances

LeaderSim Architecture

GameServer

Game World State

XMLRPC

Athena’sPrism Client

Human Users

Athena’sPrism Client

Athena’sPrism Client

LeaderSim AI

LeaderSim AI

PMFServ

PMFServ

LeaderSim Game Elements

Leaders

Territories Resources

Acknowledge Legitimacy

Open Embassy

Acquire Black Market WMD

Activate Biological WMD

Activate Chemical WMD

Activate Nuclear WMD

Air Strike

Appease Fanatics

Bust

Corporate Lobbying

Covert Weapons Search

Create Aid Project

Create Biological WMD

Create Chemical WMD

Create Nuclear WMD

Debt Forgiveness

Destroy WMD

…

Actions

Con

trol

Have

Aff

ect

Do

Action Selection Algorithm

Preferences Tree

Standards Tree

Goals Tree

RankedAttacking/Target

Resource Pairs

Offensive / Defensive

Actions

RankedActions

PaymentStrategy

Power Vulnerability Scale

AlignmentWMD

ReservoirDifferences

PMFServ

Action

Attacking/TargetResource Pairs

Power And Vulnerability

P a M ax Enem y sourcesD estoryed a( ) ( R e ( ))

V a M ax Own sourcesD estoryed a( ) ( R e ( ))

• Power– Measurement of an agent’s ability to act upon

the resources of others

• Vulnerability– Measurement of the ability of other agents to

act upon one’s own resources

Goals, Standards And Preferences

• Goals– Best envisioned as steps in a plan to accomplish a

task– Typically start with “I will…”

• Standards– Typically socially-imposed guidelines for behavior– Typically start with “People should…” or “People

should not…”

• Preferences– Ideals about the desired state of the world– Typically start with “I like…” or “I dislike…”

Goal Tree

Goals

Grow Protect

Eco

no

my

Blac

k Market

Fo

reign

Aid

Military

Dip

lom

acy

WM

D P

rog

ram

s

Med

ia

Zealo

ts

Peo

ple

Au

tho

rity

Eco

no

my

Blac

k Market

Fo

reign

Aid

Military

Dip

lom

acy

WM

D P

rog

ram

s

Med

ia

Zealo

ts

Peo

ple

Au

tho

rity

Standards Tree

MilitaryDoctrine

Treatment of Out Groups

SensitivityTo

Life

Scope OfDoing Good

Task Relationship

Balance

Exercise of

Power

Standards

Neu

tral is O

ut G

rou

p

No

t Sen

sitive

Sen

sitive

Lo

ok A

fter N

arrow

er In

teres

ts

Brin

g A

bo

ut G

reater

Go

od

Be T

ask F

oc

used

Reso

lve

Issues b

y N

ego

tiation

Pro

vide H

elp

Be

Rela

tion

ship

F

ocu

sed

Be O

pen

Be C

on

trollin

g

Use A

sym

metric

Attacks

Use C

on

ven

tion

al A

ttacks

On

ly Co

nven

tion

al

Also

Co

nv

entio

nal

Ou

t Gro

up

s are L

egitim

ate T

argets

Trea

t with

Fairn

ess

and

Justice

Frien

d is O

ut G

rou

p

En

emy is O

ut G

rou

p

Help

N

eutrals

Help

E

nem

ies to

o

Help

F

riend

s

Preferences Tree+ Preferences

- Friendly Territory

- Neutral Territory

- Contested Territory

+ Enemy Territory

- Home Territory

- Own Resources

- Ally’s Resources

- Neutral’s Resources

+ Enemy’s Resources

Grow

Maintain

Contain

Reduce

- Authority

- People

- Zealots

- Media

- WMD Programs

- Diplomacy

- Foreign Aid

- Black Market

+ Economy

AI PerceptionsLeader 1

Leader 2

Leader 3

Leader 4

Leader 5

Territory 1

Territory 2

Territory 3

Territory 4

Territory 5

Ac

tion

1

Ac

tion

2

Ac

tion

3

Ac

tion

4

Self

Ally

Neutral

Enemy

Home

Ally

Neutral

Contested

Enemy

LeaderSim AI

WM

D

Ge

no

cide

Milita

ry Stick

Lig

ht M

il Stick

Asym

me

tric S

tick

Lig

ht

Asym

me

tric S

tick

Po

litical

Sticks

Ca

rrot

Se

lf O

rga

niza

tion

Scope of LeaderSim

ScaleUpTerritories (10)Resources (10)Actions (70)Total (10x10x70xpayment levels)

x no. of pliesx N leaders (10)

PrototypeTerritories (3)Resources (3)Actions (5)Total (3x3x5xpayment levels)

x no. of pliesx N leaders (3)

References www.seas.upenn.edu/~barryg/HBMR.html

•.Silverman, BG, Rees, R., Toth, J, et al., (2005, Jan).“Athena’s Prism – A Diplomatic Strategy Role Playing Game for Generating Ideas and Exploring Alternatives”, 1st Internat’l Conf on Intel Anal

•Silverman, B.G., Johns, M., Bharathy, G. (2004, August). “Agent-Based Simulation of Leaders.” ACASA/UPenn, Tech Report.

•Silverman, B.G., Johns, M., et al. (2002, May). “Constructing Virtual Asymmetric Opponents from Data and Models in the Literature." 11th BRIMS, SISO.

Prototype LeaderSim Results

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161

Turn Blue Yellow Red

Nash Equilib: 2 winners in conflictual world

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 21 41 61 81 101 121

Turn

Res

ourc

es

Blue Yellow Red

Rare 3 in endgame. Yellow specialized away from Red and Blue.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161

Turn

Re

so

urc

es

Blue Yellow Red

Using threats, Yellow turns Red and Blue against one another

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161

Turn

Re

so

urc

es

Blue Yellow Red

Y’s power is curtailed early. Y then uses treaties to negotiate peace.