sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun...

43
3I5132 sia 0141X$IOW $13 ff14 HHT H$IA $10 VUA3U ){AH 3$IA cUHTASIHOOAX3 YJTA3SID T$1OH$1 bofl .H ndot 1nO hiM t'O .oM 1qB nbhoW HDMA33S1 DIMOMODH 1O UA3$IUH JAMOITAVI unvA 2flurbfiM OO! 8€1O AM bhdrnBD 1RinoM bnB 3nErIi1 3inocpoD ni moiq fL3lB23i 'M3ffM lo ruq i qsq 2idT thnoiiET4 r1i lo oth ton bnB 21of1iu rti lo odi 1B b2iqx noiniqo nA .3ffflOnO33 .ra$1 31rr10fl033 lo uf5tUfl ton 1xi lo 2noLJ3a tiod .b3v31 2irth hA .iliiO hM bns boa .H rirlot 'd QQI © ,lib5r. IIuTt ftrIi bbivoiq noiifrrIq ti3i1qx luorliiw b1oup d m ,ilqB1gsuq owi box o .31IJO2 3fIi 03 (I3V! 2! 3iiOfi © f1thUI3fIi

Transcript of sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun...

Page 1: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

3I5132 sia 0141X$IOW $13 ff14

HHT H$IA $10 VUA3U ){AH 3$IA cUHTASIHOOAX3 YJTA3SID T$1OH$1

bofl .H ndot 1nO hiM

t'O .oM 1qB nbhoW

HDMA33S1 DIMOMODH 1O UA3$IUH JAMOITAVI unvA 2flurbfiM OO!

8€1O AM bhdrnBD

1RinoM bnB 3nErIi1 3inocpoD ni moiq fL3lB23i 'M3ffM lo ruq i qsq 2idT thnoiiET4 r1i lo oth ton bnB 21of1iu rti lo odi 1B b2iqx noiniqo nA .3ffflOnO33

.ra$1 31rr10fl033 lo uf5tUfl

ton 1xi lo 2noLJ3a tiod .b3v31 2irth hA .iliiO hM bns boa .H rirlot 'd QQI © ,lib5r. IIuTt ftrIi bbivoiq noiifrrIq ti3i1qx luorliiw b1oup d m ,ilqB1gsuq owi box o

.31IJO2 3fIi 03 (I3V! 2! 3iiOfi © f1thUI3fIi

Page 2: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

iqt1 nbhoW $I3M QQI iuidI

HHT 151A $10 UAHU II4Aa EIIA cU3TASIHODAXEI YJTA1S1O T$1Oq3$1

TDA1THA

iJ2ubni ni i nb1nd thi3irnrno3 i&Li mobiw thnoiin3vno r11 nirnixi qnq 2ir!T

.noi2iJIono3 2ifli vuiiau1 ion ob nMiv3 ufj lo nibioi 1u15th3 £ i&li bnfl W .nibb flu

Iiioi lo 5mrk £ a b3nibb vEd !nBd !Bi31rnrno3 d bIr1 2122E ifk 33flflIBd-fIO 1&11 trii 21 II

iii1 .2no5I ir1t ioI nbInRd ni qcrth 'n iiivo 5zu2nm 21111 iua .2i22 iBIbrfrIi1Ii

ol 211131 Ii bno .iiivii irk nEthd-TIo '21nj$d 113imrrio ni rIiwoi biqin r1i 25iOfl1 ii

ii biir1T .2AnEd niio1 'd nibnI ID 1or12-11o ni thwo !13iinIli2dtJa r1i lo inuox Ai

'1biqin nwoi &1 noiithbrrriini 1si3n13nuI 2b133b thiv 12131 r1i ivo lEdi ioI dl iongi

ol An13d b iuam di nu12u1b13 13i1 113111 bnil W .'mono th lo ii r1i ol vii1i

liodoTto3 oT .nu13b u1u3 lo 3nbiv ui13 on 21 r1i 2noi11bi2no3 23f1i iol 1nuo3313

JIJEb fIi2U nbIn&i lo r1Efloqmi f1l 10 iU2i viiBfrIi1B n13 iMr1i2no3 02113 w nibni1 3r1i

iA .onil3ob bni1312u2 £ lo 33flthiV3 ub on bniI w ,niA .21nuo3)B omo3ni thnoirn uti moil

213 niH .bsb i1 r1i ivo 51&12 iFmm lo o1 ir1ik s b51&11u2 vr1 m iieubni r1i i2offl

rb bnil a?lood2 aivbB lo B 01 arioqi ioli2nini £ ifli 22o1 2i(1i ,22IJ)2ib w .nu13b inn13rrr1q 13 lo ninnid r1i n&li ir1nn 1nm31iupz iois1ui wn lo fri ni2sr1q

i1tiD A1J$M boH .H ndoT.

irnono3 lo 1ncnr1BqU 1nmttqU f1xu$1 'ii21vinU *ioY w*I 2i1oqBnniM lo IniH vm$1 1irtbI

ooH 1111 31M Qà unvA tiup1EM O OOO1 YM AioY wM O8 MM 2i1oqEnniM

$l1ffl4 bnB

Page 3: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

qt !2 t9T tPGLG 12 IJO GAIqGUcG 0. 2!11!UC9'IU qccJuc !" PIJ1c!UMtP!U tJJG flu1cq 21tGV tCL

GCOWIJ JC22 CG1JtL (0 (pG fl2 GCOUOUJA OfiL COUCIn2!OIJ pscq ou u irnJ?2!2 o /L!cQ o

Jpc bntho o p2 wiq?t o CGCJC (pG 9ccnLsc? o ip COIJ2GU2fl2 bo2!ou (JJ9 UJC2 LG

bo2iqou !U (JiG J1JCj COUJIJJfIIJJ(A uq (JiG CLrI2JIJU pnLqGu O LG!(1I(1OIJ (eoIGwpG b t)

IJO(G qjG woi. bLopjGw2 icq pX (pG UJ(JIJ JuqntQ wot uop tz GLoqu cowbc!(JAG

1LLGJGA1J( boiiricjjA (B9cou b viY CL(L GO1GWPG (JIG qcu O pu]c COIJ2r1I(J(2 2!W!JLP

dno(Gq 2 7?tJIJ (JJ1 JJiG P1J1C!U LTqn2(LX 12 pGCOUJ11J !LLJ1U( GCOUOUJICSJJ? 9uq 2 JUJO2(

O (JIG JGGLj DGbO!( JIJ2flL9'IJCG COthOL11OU uq UOM bLowJuGu pujqu COU2flJt1J( M2 LGCGIJ(JA

Jq P!P OwC!J2 !U IJJUA pi.ucpca o, oiuwuv oi cxiibc' I/ll1!w I2sc I,ouJJcL CJJ1LUJ91J

jpG ATGM (JJ( UJC2 S'LG qccJJupJ !'J !wbo'ucG !2 iq p P'un GXGCfl(JAG2

uq iou jo 2?wbtouJ2 o six JuqriQt !u qtLG2

LSbJqIA OAGL (JIG J52( ?GL2 Gcouq !IJ (JIG J5(G j(J2 PSIJJC2 GXBGI4GUCGq LGCOL(J 1G/ O 1jflLG2

9CLOL2 SLG ogcu cJtcq to 2rthbot4 tp!2 courcuoLr JL2( uoupsujc cLGqi( tGU(JAG2 JISAG LOM1I

it ! MJqGJA pcpccq tpst JU JJG flutcq 51G2 COUIUJGLC!5I P5UICPJ !2 qGCflLYJU JIJqnW.A jMO

4(iOU5J BflLGSfl O ECOUOW!C JG2G5LCJihG(JGL5! KG2GLAG BSUIC O JIflIGsbOJ2 suq G2GLCJJ V220CJ5(GKG2GSLCIJ DGbWGU( MGM AOLIC flIJ!AGL2!A

2GU!0L KG2GSLCP OWCGL OI,G22OL O ECOUOW!C2

•1OIJIJ H VL5LC CGLtIGL

OL VLG UJG JçGboL CLG1IJ)L6 1IJ

Page 4: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

fiG ICt2—!2 pl]ciu qcCjiuiIJ Of. UOt VIJ2MGL!1J CJJ!2 driG2t!ou !2 MPS( (JJ!2 14!CIC !2 pon(

(JIGU LGJXJ1J 2OUJG O (JJC2G LG2(LJC(JOU2 WJJJ( pG qG2JLpJc flUGL G1(JJCL 2CGU2L!0 MG W(12t JCIJOM

bGLpb2 g 21Gt? UG( J2 U0 JOUGL UCCG22?t HOMGAGL J GXCG22JAG LGI1J(!OU J2 bioqncu

1JGCG22'L) bGLpb2 LOCr1211J (PG JU9UCJJ 2SG(? UG( 9LOfluq COUIWGLC!I psuJc2 !2 U0 JOUGL COLLGC(

1UUOA(101J T.G W9JCHJ p911Jc2 1LLQJGA9L1( (PGU ( WW!UJflW LG(I11UIC1U LGflJ(OL) bojic? 12

cr.pcj (0 (JIG UOM 04. CLG1( bticrj&i.j? 2p0L(-tGLW CLGCfl( 14. (GCpU0JO1C9J CpIJG uq UU91JC!I

uq cbpj LCdnJLGUJGIJI2) P9T W]CG nb (JIG UUUC!J 24.G(A IJG( 2(GW 4.1.0W (JIG bLGWJ2G (JJ( pIJJC2 LG

(2GG COLL!9U 3) JJJG LGf1J1OL? boJJcJG2 (2ncp qGbo2i( !L12r1L9'UCG qJ2conu( MuqOM JGuqp.1

o pGGU Jwbor.(u( couqrip 4.01. cLGqp UOM2 to JI0t12GJIOJ2 suq 2LUJJ- uq wGqJrlW-2JsG Pc12!UG22G2

bcq CGU(LJ LOJG IU fP U""E 2X2(GW JpGA JIAG GGU JCG?t bLoAiqGL2 04. JJdnJqA JJJGA JJAG

poob Juqn2tLJG2 M2 p9LqJ? CfT2G 4.OL LGt COIJCGLW COWWGLC!! PIJ12 pOMGAGL JIVG

1JU1LJJ? GxbUq Of. COIJ(LC( MJIJJ (JIG bg2sc 04. (JWG JJJG qGuJi2c 04. (JIG pri? MpJb uq c pnj

jjiA ponjq 9'1J?OUG C9LG MJJG(JJGL Of. UO( (JIG pnJciu Juqr12tQ !2 P1 qGCJ!UG yiiX JUqfl2(L1G2

JI2 GGU LOM!IJ 2(GqJA LGJAG (0 LO22 qouicc bLoqnc(,

NP!!G PUJC2 JIVG WUtJUG LGJ(JAGJ?t C0U2(1J( 2PLG 04. U(GGqi(7OU) U'!J JU(cLwcqJ(JOu

SCtiiJJA L!2GU in JWbO141JCG LGJ(1AG (0 LG(G GCOUOUJIC C(IM(X GACU OAGL (JIG J2( T ?GL2

04. 2JIOCJC2 tO (JIG pujqu Juqn2tLA ipst OCCflLLG OAGL p bGLoq uq COUnJJGLCJJ pUJCJIJ JI2

p urnq 4.fTL(JJGL (}J( 1pJ2 2JJJI( J022 JU WL1CC1 2J191.G M2 UJ9JUJ? (LU2JIOLA LG2bOIJ2G (0 2GLJC2

pUJcZ W JI9AG 2t1JGLG 2JJJI( J022 04. UJ'L1CG( 2JJLG !" (PG Jt 18O2 9L1CGLJA 1O2 V C2G csu

UU1JC!! Ju(GLwGqJ(J0u !U IJIJ2 COflU(LA JJ2 GGU LOf1JJJ? 2(JG OAGL (PG J2( 4.0111. qGcqG2 yt WO2(

C0LLGC(!U 4.01. UI1WPGL 04. UJGS2fILGWGU( J22nG2 MG uq tji( COWWGLC1J p'u12 2JJLG 04. (O(J

Page 5: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

1&ioi3ibaii 3iü io1 33n3b1v3 !rrrio1 crnobiw Isnoiin3vno3 03 3nuo run 2JIu23I iuo ob 'rfW

v3wori ic si8rIT .3ib513 b arrrio 13rbo 03 isaas lnsd lo oi3i fi gni',Isris molt 8fflO3 VI8W

.ahi3m thi rbiw zm3Idolq om ow3

3I1IBcf—1bO '&&IEd io1 3dUJO33 03 liEl aia lnad lo iuasm IsnoitibEii tEnt zi m3Idoq 3110

zzsriiwd ob 'th 113111W 03 3n33X3 silt bsacsi3th svEnI z1rtsd zis' I iasI sdi iev0 .zsiiivil3z issria

briE noi1sfusisb lb noiiEnlidmo3 silT (.4QQ1 ,€2I isirisE) briE b'o8 ss) .issrfa s3nEIsd sill lb

ru bsvlovnui znoibnufl zuohsv srIi sIquo3sb 1nzass13ni 03 zlnEd bsnirrrisq zznf noiiEvonni thbn&uft

isrfio ol sisruiiio srLt enEol sift lb srnuoe lisa won z1nsd sfqmsxs ioI .nibrus1 nuisibsmisini

gnibisl rioqque liasiibni 'srb rbiniw 03 insixs sift bsassl3rii oafs svsrl IT .anoiiutiiani lEi3nEnIfi

sf13 rfguoinii riiisrte-1th sisiili3sI won srfF .assirlsisug bnis libs13 lo asnil qwbsd gnibivoiq 'd

o3nsisd—rlo rio bsasd asiuzssm isriz-'uiwbrii Isnit ci iluasi silT .ainismirilani sviisvnsb lb floizivoIq

snfw lb noiieil boos B isdi work sW .ruoiludhtrio3 'aM.nsd 16i3,smrnlo3 eisiaisbruJ alseas issnla

a5waEsm Isnoilibsn sd noiisibsrrnslni lo sisria 'alnsd lsbismrno3 iii 3111133b £ nssd svErf ot aissqqs

.issrfa s3nsisd srli lb 03 no molt asiiivii3s lnsd lo lnemsvom evitsisi s a133ft3i bzsiani

ISi3lsmrrIo3 ngisiol sd gnibnsl lb noianisqxs srll asvlovni i,ism chit nijiw msldoiq isrLto sifT

bsiudhlno3 asni insrnusvlovni nisio1 bsaasi3ni srIT .zO8QI sift ,svo bsnu33o isrli enrzfl 2.tJ 03 z)IrlEd

vsnf asuazsm 15131110 silT .awofi libsi3 3iiaemob lo sisila tahuEd 15i3iSnnlmo3 lb insmsmassmeim 01

rfJs bits 31usD3M) alnsd lBbismmo3 ngisiol 'd beilqqua enisol ni eah sift bsisiaiebniu '11ns3fiinia

baa ensol lnsd nisiol lo lnsmsiuessmaim sift ifiod iol rui138T1o3 islls 3nsrnu3ob iliw sw aA .(SQQI

lsbismmo3 iii srui3sb lsiinsteduz £ 10 s3rlsbivs fl6 1e5iiivii3s issnfa s3rlELsd—lbo lo (IOiWI3XS 3113

.asnfainsv- ziseas bsisibsrrnsini lo sisth eEnsd

01 bsbnsi vsii wsiv 2U2ii32ri03 5113 10 ainsnoqoiq 15(11 sia6r1qms 03 3n61-ioqmi oafs ciii

sDnsr]oqmf 'elrisd iuods as3rIsislni ws,b 03 eisdmun noilsibsrrneini b 315112 3s*ism 8W 1i3si103ni

Page 6: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

riiwo 3viiBI3l 343 iol 3r1uo33E o lid al3dmun 31s42-3,ilBm ,i3ih b3llqmi w A .mono33 343 oi

53B3bnz 28U2B3 333(12 83nzIEd beiwlbBnu 3rD fl33 jsrlj bnlI w bs5bnI .noiiib3m133ni IEI3fIEfIfi 10

B els3ibrIi EIUZS3ffl b3wLbE uo bnA .l3ubolq 31323mob oxg o vi1s131 is lrisd ni efIiI33b on

.32E513f1i 1B313

lnuo33B sh3qo-1q o b3ni23b 31B rnrli 3as *IBd lo asiuaem 131r112n03 lalfi 3w 13qBq Eirii nI

3(13 s1sris n3rD 5W .alnzd ngisiol d rIibn31 2.U Idol io1 bnB siiivilos 133112 33rtslsd—lto io1

3iid3rnob oi ol brIE 3ib313 lo drrnol isrDo oj 3viiEIsl eigs b313i.niznoa Iw3n ir13 lo Ioivsr13d

owl riiw i3ivi1z 133(12 33rIELcd—flo b din3Isviups 1ib313 ioIrIJdno3 3w 223rI3wdo1 iol .i3uboiq

.athJa3l islimie (18V b18i i&1i aborli3rri 1n31flib liup

in3lsllib 13331qmo3 B 3n323q risrfl sw ifu231 lo dasnlwdol er13 no 33n3bPt3 i&1fliiI niEldo oT

83E1q ni) a1nuo33E 3mo3ni lsrIoiiErI 3111 moil ElEb riiau 33nEnoqmi '21nsd nnuassm 03 If3Eolqqs

3imono33 ol noiiudhn1o3 'dlnsd 31U2ESfrI ol dl3dmun bobbE-3jjIEv 3W 3W .(Elsb 333112 33fIEIEd lo

b3bivolq lErli 03 -lElimia '(13v ai 3sth noizdslqmI rIB 3vI rbsolqqE 21± rio b8dsd anoiisiuqcnoD .sCivii3E

3Ldiddoq lo 3211s33a .3flh133b IB11J332 £ O 33fI3biV3 on 21 3-13113 :EJEb iserid 33fIBISd bsin3mgus 3I13 'd

.3E2U luqrii no bs2Ed arIoilEiuqmo3 ob odis ew srnb bebbE-3ulEv erli emsldrnq lrIsm3wds8m

.3flu133b 1513J332 £ lo 33fl3biV3 on di 318(13 nxsA

gnibul3rli 2iB5' 1n3i rü ijwbni gnblnsd srIi beilol 1niSr133 3VBrl 213o112 lo l3dmun A

lxsri 3W .23n3m311up31 (1O3B1LJ5 W3(I lo (Ii r1i2z1iq 3113 bns 2522OI rizol noiiil3qmo3 b325313ni

323± 1r1i 3b1113n03 5W .gribtrisd Isbl3mrrlo3 lo noiiibno3 8(13 rio 2)130(12 32343 lo l3Eqmi 3113 2232dB

flJfl .bohq 21± 18V0 noilsibemislni lo 31B(f2 1nEd 111 2201 irfi12 3111 ioI belrIuo33z 8vErl sm a1o33s1

.3n1138b lrI3n&rrt3q olni iiwbni 3111 br1wq svsrl 2)130(12 828(13 iBID 123U2 01 33fl3biV3 on 21 313(11

3± noLs 1bsvoiqmi 1ibEs32 SyBil z)1nEd lo esriuriol srli Od 10 21B3' owl lafil 8± iiI bssbnI

Page 7: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

L022 qowG C bLoqflc( (0Db) 9IJq O COWIJJGLC!9J PUJC 109112 (0 11011111191 ODb flO(JJ L9(!02 JJ9AC

CJJ'- 5 OUGL2 q!GLC11t b;L2b;c!Ac Ii bjon tPG L9(J02 O C0WUJGLCJ9J 9UJC S22G(2 (0 1101111119!

(P12 bGtoq

qIL1( Iuqn2tLA (bLiIJJ9L1J? 2AflJ2 9IJq JO9IJ 220CJ9tOIJ2) J02t WOLC LGJ9t!AG L0(1U (p911 qlq P9LJ2 0ACL

Tu(CLwCqi9'LTG2 uot9pJ? Ju9ucc cowb9u!G2 LJCLC92Gq (PC!!. w9qcct 2J19LC qL9ILJ9tJCSJJ? H0MGAGL (JIG

2111CC LJ1GU (pG p9'UJC 2JJ9'LG Ji92 2(C9qJX qGcJJucq SJI!U CO BCLCGU( 111 I5 20WC t?bc2 o

COUAGU(10119J MJ2qOUV 111 It 922G12 9wonIJ(Gq to b;Lccur 0 (0(9J !u(GuJJCqtGq cJS!UJV

bLIA9G ULT9UC!9J ZUGLWGq9LG2 OAGL (JIG bcLoq T—3 It CJG9'LJ? LGAG9J2 (JiG 2OIILCG 0 (JiG

CP9L( I 2Ji0M2 (pG 2119LG2 o (ou—p9J9ucG 2JJGGC) fl U11911C!9I 922G(2 pcjq p? (JIG qGLG11t t?bG2 o

yql•n2(Gg J9J9IICG 211661 JGØ2ULG2

qowC2pc9fl?t OMIJCq p9uJC2 iiq (JJt (JIG L1102( LGCGU(IX V9IJ9P!G GMCJCIJCG 2rthboL2 (p2 COUkCU1LG

9 J9(GL 2GC(1O1J MG 9LflG IJJ9( (JiG (LC11 111 OMIJGL2JJJb 12 !1ICGP (0 LGAGL2G COIIL2G U 19A0L O

!wbJA tpt p9'uJqu JIS2 pecowe Op2oJGtG Jt 1uibJ1G2 OIJJA CJJ9t (JIG w!X o OMIJGL2JIJb 92 cp9uGq P1

P20LG pX oLCu-oMucq 911JC2 JUcLG92Gq 2IJJUC9Ufl? ..LP!2 bpcuowGuou Ji0MGAGL qOGZ U0(

ifIJA 2!IJ!4C91If CCJUG 111 P911IC!11 M!1P!U (JIG flU!(G 2(9(G2 It 12 PuG CJJ9( (JIG 2JJ9LG 0 pfl2!UG22

PLG9JC0MU o fl p9UJCI1J pGCMGCIJ t0LG!1I 911q qowc2(c OMIJGL2JI!b JJJ1JC (JJGLC W9? 'Jot Ji9AC PCGU

COUCJIT2!0132 9bbJ? tO (JIG 9LG(G JGJGJ O PuJ!'J M!tp!IJ (JIG flU1Gq V9(G2 9uq U0( (0 (JiG

(JIG2G PGC9112G MG M!2p CO C9buiLG 9JJ 91JJC 9CC!A!A (JJ9t 0CCIL2 M!ip!u fl p0LqGLz jpnZ JJ OfiL

ucjnqc (JIG 9cC!qCG2 o 0LG1J-0MUGq 92 MGJJ qowG2Cc9fl? OHJIGq cut!C!c2 Jc wCJnqG

BG0LG bLocGGqu MC M!2JJ (0 GWbp92!G CJJ9C OflL WG92fTLG2 O fI9UJCJiJ M!CJJ!U (JiG flUJIGq

M1fp 2OLIJG c0uCJI1q1U LGW9'LJC2

OACL9JJ Gcouow?V JJ1112 MG CJIC O(JJGL LG20U2 CO pc Ob(JuJ!2pc pont (JIG IJI(TLC 0 91JflU 9uq Guq

Page 8: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

iii 8E.0 moil saoz qUO tanimon 03 isaa lnad b oiii sifT .sbE33b ijo1 iaI 3± isvo bsasni

ifioH .€LO oi t.0 moft 3201 uo Inimon 03 anaol lrisd lo oiisl sifi brie I ni .0 ol VQI

1uqoq 03 1E1ino3 zq&hsq 1wrlT .4'QI ni sisw as smz 8± iuods '11fwnu3 s 2oiisl

Hsvo oi sviiElsl nbkid ru srIil3sb £ 3lE3ibru ion ob i8dmun ir12 83riLsd biau[b&w sib nbIrü±

airli qss1 03 irurioqrni 2 II .3-xBde 3sL-ism ni 2201 s siE3ibni lno ;.VQ1 53ni2 3iviia imorios

.briirn ru nOii3rIiieib

qao Isnimon 03 2no1 LrIEd lo oiii sill iii fIo-qoib £ sisibni ob zisdrnun b3iwjbsnu silT

ir1is (1r1uoi) 3± iii bsTiu33o 35± SEfl 3(13 2332110 3w1to-qob eidi zvswoH .8Q1 iii nirmisd

iasl-oi-ixsri srfJ Ilinu ErIsol lrtsd 'to ioivsrlsd 3(13381 8(13 'to 2i2lSnB bslisjsb £ lslsb sW .lohq 2lEs

2rmol lnsd 'to obsi srli iii Ilo-qolb qisrlz lsfimi2 £ isrti siorz fqmie SW 3mi3r1sem 3± iii .n013332

01151 8(13 sbo2iqs isib aiwollo1 nss 01 sib nI .rioiaeo'i eV-4VQ1 silt 'to smii sib bnuois b311u33o

.bli±-eno s1'uorr d 3201

s3nslsd—11o 'xo't inuoxs 03 isas lnsd 'to slu2ssm sib iwjba sw rIoii332 2irii lo iesi sill iii

sifT .2(1501 nisio1 'to ninoqsnsbnu sib iot brus (2slubs3olq lrIslslIib owl riiau) 23i31vi335 338(12

b1o335 111 If1gu01 fliWO1 nssd SVSLI 233225 *isd b3i2ujbA .slIJl3iq JnslsThb s lruiEq 23i182 bsiwlbs

grüzh nssd svsrf s± bnA .23b533b ludb izzl sill '13v0 noiisibsmlsini lsioristifi 'to arrrio't isrlio (131w

.22LJ32ib ew as zme1doiq irlsmsluzsem 'tO 331't 30(1 315 281182 beiwlbs 'IUO .iuqluo lsnoilsn 03 vils1i

.evii5r1sano3 315 2335ffli323 328113 1gfiiil3siis 'Ii 15± Aniill 03 2(102551 'islto SW 13V3WoH

uV?. —'O tz3 bns rfiwo'i 3± IISSCJ 25ff 23b533b 1S15V32 3251 8± ISVO gfIDlrIsd 151318m1r103 'to 8lIJ3SI 3ni12 A

sfbnudnu 2SiliVil3E 333(12 83fl515d—1tO gnb1c5q2 11s'isneO .28111vi335 333112 8311s15d—11o 'to noiiulovs

cm 2382as 333(12 33f1515d—rlo 35111 21 232O-1U rno idi noiissilqmi 's1 sifT .ZEs3o'iq noijsibsmisini sill

.rioilaibsrrrisini 1sf 3nsrlfi iil 3101 '2AnEd 'to ioiE3ibni sidsilsI £ sd 1sno1 Oft

Page 9: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

UGLWGq91.A 1J1UC!OIJ2 V 2!Wb!G Gx9uJbJc 2 911 !U1GLG2 L9C !U MJJ!CJJ POLL0MGL uiA (12C (pG

bLOA!20U 0. P OLW O 2Gj OLW0U OLIC O (PG CL1!(0U9T

DGL!AAC for. qGwlJ2 OU JJOM qGLAAG JJ9AG ccccq (PG LON47 0 o—pJ9uCc 2CG( 9C(!Af!G2)

wcq ((Gu1!ou—1 fG bLoA!2!ou O4 qGLA(AG !UUJ1WGU( (2CC (G pox jcq flJG JOJQ O

Jyc W02( r.brqjA LOM!1J O—pj3UCG 2CG( crA(?—9uq (pG OIJC (JJ( p2 ULC(Cq (pG W02(

C0W1JJGLC!I p91J1C JCGA LOJG !U U(GLWGq1IJ flJC2C ijiuq

Jq\oL n9r.91J(GG2 40r. W02t O (G2G P0LLOMGL 2!WblG P91JCC 2IJCG( 2flLC (0 cbitc

W9L1CC( B9"112 PAG LGWucq U (JIG bCUTLG JIOMGAGL pX br.oAqu r.cdnr.cq pcjcrrb J!uG o cr.cqt

jcuqni (o pp-LqG coujb9'uTC2 P p!gq LOW 9U]C 911q (OM9L (JIG COUJUJGLC!9J b9b;L

bpGuowcuou !UAOTAG (JiG L0M(JJ Ot couJlJJGLc!9J bbGc OAGL (JIG J( Ø AG9U MoLqIJ cbpj

pX bLo/qqiu cor!9(GL1 iii c 0LW o pcjcrib UG2 o cr.cq or. fl9t91J(GCV v ooq Gx9LUbJG 0 fp

VUOrJJCL Iwboi49u( M?t (P( P"1 C!J!( JIJ(GLWGq1(I0U HqpOfI( qpGc(J? poqpi JO9U !2

or. wor.G) (PGU (PC 9UJC w boot !U M(JI 2!w!Ir. 1oIJ2 9uq aCj !t bu o cnqqcq

i ivc Iou p n4A 2uqr.q GU1LG 911q 2 MGJJ COfJ(Gr.JCq (tor. GX9WbJG 911 91IOWOJC J09'IJ

2ow;t!w; IJic io !2 2OJ ! (JIG 8uJC (LUJ 1JJ( or.prncq (for. cxr.ubj; bLAVG b1cGwGut)

fl9UJC2 ,OL CX9'UJbJG uiX OL!fU(G JO9U pfl( (JJGU 2G11 (JJGW (0 0131Cr. UL1ffUcJJ rouv

IJWCUOU

o Qb O O—pJ91JCQ 2PGG( C(1Ai(iGV ECP !IJA0JAG2 GUJGU(rIJ O OIJG or. LJJOLC O (JJGG

2ccnr.(A (J( WA qGL !U LJJC miq JdflqQt r.Ow (JIG J0911 (P((JIG p911Jc W91CG2) JJJGLG LG

!uA0IAG pojqw rpc io ou rpc p9ucG ?JIGG 91Jq ra2t tUflo1 (bLOAqpJ 2SACr.2 M!131

2cr.GGuiu (JIG por.LoMGL op(!u!u 1o9UPJG 1J1Uq2 jLOW 2VGL2 W0IJt(0LJU (PG Jou (/p!cp W?t

jpc (Lqqou9J cz uAoAGq !U JULWGcfl(JU S fOSli ucnqG OL1!U(J0U (or. GXSUJbIG'

Page 10: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

2JJCG( b02!(!0U2 J1J(0 CLGq( G&1!ASJGU(2 111 GJGC( S Ut ! 911 G2(JIJJS(G 0 (JIG 9'WOIlIJ( 0

0L C0UJbr1PIJ (JIG 01J—p191IcG 2JIGG( csbsj LGd11JLGWGU( GU(9JJ2 C0UAGL(JU S 9UJC2 L!21CA 0—pSJ9'UCG

poq csb!(91 9SJu2( o—pSJ9ucG 2JIGG( boz!!ou9 CJJ9( GU(SJJ 2UCSU( L!21C GXbO211LG JJJG bLoccqnLG

IJ(LOqnCGq (JiG B'11 t0. J1J(GLU(J0U9J 2Ct(JGWGU(2 (B12) csbJ(9J 2iSuqffLq2 (JJ9( LGd11JLG p9UJC2 (0 9J20

H0MGAGL (JIG B92G1 yccoq (o g) GXbJJCJJA LGC0UJG (JIG Cp9uiu U9ITILG 0 p91JJciU I

ffGfJJ9(0L2 JJ9AG (LSqJ(JouSJJA Jwbo2cq CSb!wJ LGdIIJLGUJGu(2 OUJA 9SJU2( OU—P9ISUCG 2JIGG( 922G(2

LI C%t

pA n2Ju 1/iSO icrA qrGLcU( bbLocpc MG pobG (0 opisp.r LG92OU9JC pSJJb9LJC G2(JUJ9(G2

9LG 11119 JJJG' MG COU2IUIC( (MO JUqLGC OUG2' E9CIJ UJG(JJ0 JI92 LSM9CJC H0MCAGL

0—p9191ICG 2JJCG( SC(1A!(1G2 BGCSI12G 21Wb1G qILGC( WGS2I1LG2 0 (JIG A9JIIG 0 0—psJ9uCG 2JIGG(

O11L OP1GC(JAQ JIJ (p12 2GC(JOU J2 (0 Sqfl21 (JIG WGS2fILC °L psujc 922G(2 (0 WICG SCCOIT1J( 0

0 (0(J CLGq( (u 0u—p9J9UCG 2PGG( 922G(2) ?i92 t9IJ!U'

MOL(JJ GUJbp9211LJ (S( UOIJTU(GLG2( !IJCOWC LGM L9bJqJA OAGL (JiG 29WG (JIJJG b;LJoq (JJ( P9IJ]C2) 2J19LG

UOIJIIJ(GLG2( JC0WG JI92 mflwbGq 1.0W J22 (p911 O bGLcdu( 0 (0(SJ !UC0IJJG (0 90t1( 33 bGLCGU( J( !2

oiu IL0W 901T( OXO BGLCGIJ( 111 TÔ.Ô (0 j bGLCGU( !U T5 2!W!l914A OACL (JIJ2 bGL10q

M92 LOnJJA 2(9JG L0W JJ (0 (JiG J9(G TO 2!ucG (pGIf (p12 unwpGl. 92 UJOLG (Ji911 qonpq

0JJ—p9J9IJCG 2JJGG( SC(!M(!G2) V CPSL( 3 JJJfl2(LS(G2 UOUUJ(GLG2( IIJCOWG 92 s bGLCGUIG 0 p9u]c 922G(2

p9JSUCG 2JJGG( 922G(2 UG( O JIJ(CLG2( C02(2) suq UOUJU(GLG2( !11C0WG (uouJu(cLc2( C91.UJ1J2 LOW

SC(IAI(1G2 jO(9J p9UJC JIJCOUJG C9'U G GxbLGz2Gq 92 (JiG 211W 0 IIG( J1J(GLG2I JUCOWG (G9urJu LOW

jJJG PGJJSMOL 0 IJOU!U(GLG2( ILJCOUJG LGJGC(2 (JIG LJ2JU JLJJbOL(911CG O, 0JJ- SJ91ICG 2JJGGC

(9JCG bJSCG 0J (JIG PSUJC2 p9JSUCG 2JJGG(

qfljGLZ tLOW (L9qJ(0II9 922G( (LSU20LW9(J01i 0 CO11L2G' JU (JIS( 8LLS1IGWGU(2 0L qGLJAS(JAC 2GC11LJ(JG2

pSIIfc (0 PGG S9J1J2( (JIG !U(GLG2( L9(G LJ2JC J( 9CG2 011 9 ASLJSpJG LSG Jo9w bLOA!2!Ou 0(, qGLJAS(AG2

8

Page 11: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

.Lnsd 8th iol 81UEOX3 fah lo iflUofrIE 8fflB2 8rfi iii 31u231 bluow th 2nibIo1f 3322E 388rf 83rIBf&J—no

-31iupi Lsiiqr 3gE3n8318q £ d b8iIqilIum i ii Lnd £ ,oI bsiuqmo3 i in3faviup3 3ib3 3(13 nO - .3ea 3u1z nIcd—no us iw i Ii ss laul 3n3rn

Iift3au i3V £ Sx (z3eoq-wq iuo iol) r1ijiw tv aith aau borli3rn Wzfi iu0

.233225 333(12 33(IsIsd—rlO lo 211cm ui ai1ivb3s 3iie 83ns1sd—flo 10 3W2E3ffl £ 23bivoq 31 .i3znlano3

assmiiz 11iiw au b3bivolq miav 132351 Isl3b&1 8th lo alorI3voO lo bisofi 3111 is usia u13isa8R

18i5rumoInU) .1Q—C8Q1 aise 8th ,ol 2311512viup8 31b313 Isasa Isiol 'alnsd Isi3I3rnmo3 2.U lo

8i113313q £ as airI3Isviup3 3ib513 bsmiia 8(13 asaasIqx3 4 risiiD (.8IdsIisvEnu 81E 2315ff1ii23 I8i1i53

21 ol E821 iii ine3isq El iuodz mofi 3gsin3318q eiriT .arisol lnsd (138(12 83n51sd—no) Isiol lo

23131v1335 ie1a 33(1E1Ed—To b in8ISviup8 31b513 Iaaa b5lsmila3 3± 1QQ1 d aurfF .1221 iii in3i8q

11b313 3± Ri 3v115131 sriT .artEoI 333(12 s3nslsd—no lo ia 3(11 lo 3r13313q O 13iBmIxo1qqB asw

b3s1floq 5mo3rIi ia5I3ininon flu evilslsi 3113 thiw 31183212no3 21 boh3q airU 5V0 airI3Isviupe

.E risiID ni

1s13v82 iol 23131vi135 333112 3311515d—flo 3isial3bnu 13th1 ain3Isviup3 3ib33 leasa b3ismuia3 3fIT

315 3s± a3iiivii3s 333(12 3311515d—flo 820113 1u0 .z3ilivii3s 1115r133 3bu13x3 3th lsrli 21 3110 .2(102531

luothiw 28152 risol as rbu2 28iiivii3A .b3bul3rIi 8IE 31IJ20X3 Aeii ins3fiini2 di 31u281 01 irI2LJOth

ru .lSv8OalErfw 3di8w on 8V18331 2331 V182 insmnsqeb iau-ii bus gruu1uar1o3 ffl3iV132 risol 821U0381

£ (111w aln3rnuImmoQ uso! 31qrnsx3 lo1 .-us1iidis isdwsmoa si 3m3r13a noiis3fliaaEb 3± 11z8V 21±

rliiw airu9muirnmo3 asol 13v3woH .2in8m8iup51 Isiiqs3 01 133[dua ss iom io is no lo 'thuism

1o iuasm eth moft b3buL3x3 81o1313± es bns us is iLii8w Lsiiqs3 on 3v1335u 23i3iluiEm 18310(12

3i10q (1o3s1ug81 airli 03 b8bnoqa8I ascl ulaubni nb1nsd r[i 1gnithq-wa loM) .aln3Isviup3 3ib813

(.i8vo m8± rui11oi 11s3iboh3q (13th bus irIerniimmo3 itsol sb4E (ii33*ism '1ivssi1 d

Page 12: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

0I

-zi2slsbnu H3i3msia'2 'srn bsnicido svsrl sw eisdmun bsiEmi13 sth 21 flo31 isrbonA

ll ozol3zib 13iIduq 01 svzii ion bib !risd 10Q2! 03 wi-A .alnsisviups 3ib513 IssH 1Ui3 sill sism

is a il3IEsE31 d) 2siEmiies sf13 33(1311 .al3dmIrn sarti 3iuqmo 03 bsbssn noiismioIni insvslsi srli

OQQI aiss s± oI .airislsviups iibsi3 I21fl35 srfi ol brloqasrIo3 ion bssn (aiornsvoD lo bisoa b&I 5th

sis aiss owl easrfi II .sldshisvc sis a-isdmun Lsurjs bn.s bsismiias rhiod isvsworl 1QQ1 bns

1svi eisdmun 1suis srfT .biirhi-sno lass! is d zsulsv Isui3s srhi sisiaisbnu esismilas sth risthi sbiug

lo si2 srIi lo 3n3313q O !t1guo1 513W 2513iv1335 358(12 e3rIsLsd—Tlo ioI eirislsviups iibsw i± QQI iii .inssq O bimiias srfi lo bssiani aiss owl 325± nhub ansol 1nsd issila s3nslEd—no

ô.3n33.Isq EE luods 03 bsdmil3 isdmun !su1zs srh

it-O on% icM L1

L35d 03 3(1103(11 lasisIni isri ol sviisls, smo3ni iasisininon b ioivsrlsd srb esw bo±sm bno3se uO

iibs3 1ssa erhi lo noiiZw-ii2rio3 srhi rhliw aA .2siiivii3B issrf szrislsd—flo lo 81Emil8 (Is iuo

iibsl3 silT .aisaas issr1 53(1515(1—no lo aiirw ui emassm £ nisido 01 a! svils1do srhi irt1sviup

183(12 s3rlBIad—no lo li1rtsup sili al il3solqqz 21113 isbrru 28131v1335 issrle s3nsIsd—lbo lo inslsviups

zliod boilism airlT .smo3ni iesisininon lo Ivs1 bsvsado s± sisisneg ol bsiupsi sd bluow 15113 213225

.smo3ni iaslSininon si1s3iqso 03 aisaas issila s3rIEIsd—no no niuisi 1o sisi srhi IIiU ol nwob

3VO assirisvbs 1ssvsa asii ii sb1r13 2! bo±sm noiisi15iiqs3 smo3ni iassiriinon rft sIirfW

rIii3Lni2rio3 bsiiups sis siab issila e3nsIsd bris smozni s1no enia isIhi a! snO .bo±srn Isasfi srhi

2itislsviups libsi3 Isasabo aslsmuizs 15111 11ss51) .sldiaaoq ai eirislsviups iibsw b athse smii isgnol £

lrislsviups iibs3 £ ai3IrziarIo3 bo±sm aithi isrii a! esitisvbs is±onA (.8Q1 ol !35d sldslisvs Ino 515

iol ainslsviups iibsis eeiuqmos borüsm Isasfi sdT .SSilivii3B lssda S3nsEsd—Ilo lo seisvinu srhi o1

smo3ni 3sis1ninon silT .)lan irIE3flinia hisine If iw 1n1± aois1usI isili 25Liivii3S 320± (IflO

Isiiqs3 biovs 03) 2)1(15(1 d r1imsg 01 sldilqs3aua ion 3101518113 21 bothsm noiizi1siiqz3

Page 13: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

'11

nsufi e1 lol 2in3mizmmo3 IIBoI 1qmzx8 1oI .both3rn 1sH 3rD ei es w rrie 8th flu (22113m811up3i

d bi1J3qa3 81E 2irI3[viup3 31b513 1ez dt b noiisIu3ls3 8th olni wgft ion ob rbirlw no

.boriisrri noi3aitciiqs3 3mo3rli ie3l3irlinon 8(11

nsrb iuo sb in 1tib 131i1n8 its sw bonhi8m noiisi1nqs3 3(11 icrb si2n1qm5 021.5 5W

lo au 28(srn l8flEL 8th 81111w ain3m8iaiz erno3ni Lnsd 2'o1qrn8 iunoi &IT .borb8rrl 18aH ecu seob

2bothi3rn owl erD moñ ai1ui 8IdsiaqmoD .sfloq8i hIz lnBd ni b3rioq3i 316 3s113 Zm8ii £bfIElOrtl3rfl

.ss8rIiaudol lo n3biv3 3d 5Io18rb bhzow

thow borfJ8m noiisiIsiiqs3 3113 niau ain8lsviup3 iibei nuiuqrr1o3 ]o1 mr1iiio1s 8rfF

ia3l3lninon = V rioiivoiq 2201 noh = 32n3qx8 313ini = 3 cnorii i51ini = X enflQ :ewolloI

31ot8d alllolq lo noiiinfieb c1iirwo33s erfr .2382es I3o3 = K brIE 8mO3nl Th813311111or1 = '{ zrisqx

(18(13 21 123X61

(1)

31011 bris E8I11n8 183112 8311515d—flO elon8b c bris 23113118 133(12 33ns15d—no 3lonsb cS iqil3adua 8th led

.noiiinfleb nhinxio3s d K K bits 1 X 3sth

'd b3lslerI8g griied 21 '{ (1158132 8fflO3tIi 123133f1ifl0fl 8th isrhi (1!Eu33Eh8irwo3) 8(11L1225 wo14

1511335 03 2138q231 his nil IS3iirI3bi 515 23822.6 323(13 lEthi 8U22E erfri&T .0k 2ie22s Is3ii8thoqr1 emo2

rloiie8up 81ff .m8th 83rlsrIft oi bw iiup bits 2313111d511 lo xim 8113 nibu13rIi 2i3e25 333112 33f1515d—rlO

((153132 8(1103(11 8(13 3iE13fl8 01 3d 03 vsr1 K nib1orf 38225 Isoiisthoq'r1 8th bluow 8g151 woll 21

32Um Ii 3fdz1fio1q 'hLsup r1oi1qmua2s d eis 2332sB 333(12 o3nsIsd—lbo bris —no iliod 83fli

lEnS 81fl3 8(1

.0K\LV 09L— 3— 1) = K\(V— — — ') ()

Page 14: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

030 !U 10 pont O5 !" f3

!13C0WG bo'.ucq !u CP4 3 it ! t!LJA ijt nutj tpc "iq-rxo uq tpcu UC2 zJJthJA L0W spont

J4LUJC QT—3 40t thqujX 1J!2 Lfl0 CJO2CJA UJ!L1.0L2 tile U0UJJflG AJflC O UOU!I1tCLG1

'O cpu bjot IJJC L1J0 0 1JJ2 cLGqt Gdn!AGUt 10 011— pucc 2JJCGI JOIJ2 OACL (pG thuG

MC LGCL (0 "4° c yC- xcit (oL uto ccbtiuooJ—pucc 2JJGGI cLGq1 cdnpJc1u2 '4°

vi! tim 011 (pG Lipt 2!qG o () cs'u pe opcucq 'uq IIJ!2 i (PG cxbLG2!ou ncq to G21!W1G

(e) '4° =

2flP(1Wt!U () !U(0 ( MG G(

() }=X°—°—\°

GXbCUG JJJGLC0LG

(IC uct 'uuonut o ucouJc CUGLtG p? o—psJ9ucc 2JJGCI cr!A!ric PG0LG qGqnc(u UOIJIIJIGLG2I

bbsst nj cconuiu 2((GUiCU(V 'E° uq %° LG 1101 2GbL(GJ? 0pGI.ApJG pm pe

fIG qG1JOWiUtOL P1 () 2 IJGI !UIGLG2I P1couJG wplfI2 jou bLoA!2Iou 9uq (JJG2 JJ

('t) '4° =

CowpU!u cdnou () uq () uq LGLLIi!IJ MG G1

() =

2AUJUJG(Q PGIMGGU 011— uq 0—piiCG 2JJGCI 2G12 !t Wr121 PG WIG rIrnI

/!PIG 1pt 2 A9JpJG t0(J IJ0UU(GLG2t !1JC0WG i,k H0MCAGL pCCrI2G O (PG 22flhuibt!0U O

wote (ijt jpe uq IA° e 1301 0P2GPIG u bnpjpcq cconut!u ttcwcutz (P

J3

Page 15: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

U

b ioivr(&f &ii 03 iz!imi2 I5viiiiLup o1z 2k in8Lviup3 1ib3 I-DIM sib O8I sib

noiizsiIsiiqB3 sib Ini2hqw2 ioM (1 bus ati&ID elEqunoD) .ins1viups 11b513 Issa bs3rniias sub

iErLi noi2w32ib i&hss iuo molt 11a33$II bdrfism isasa sib esob cisrfi sismiles isgisi £ ebIsi borbsm

[.(noiiirifisb %ioiLus1 d) asiiivi3 issue ssrisLcd—fio 1eii Ino esluiqs3 ieflsl siti

iibsx Isesa sub oi bslsqmo3 1l3s1ib siom ed ns isib inslsviups 3ibsi £ nthldo oT

ecu I-DIll molt sisnimile 01 iqmsiis eW .1-DIM 03 insmiwibs guiwollol erfi e1sm ew lneIviupe

smiicas icift sW .siinqs ion ob eiedmun ISCBE sib isuli eeiliviiOB iesLIC 33fl5[Sd—1IO ieiinon

2331v132 sllicisv-nislq e1sc ihsmhq sisw OVQI ol iohq aeilivii3s issue s3n&[sd—1o isrb (Idscioassi)

lo ernmiies us nisicjo ol OV—It boiisq sib ecu nedi eW .(esinse lnsmrisqsb iain sIqnsxs iol)

esvlovni lesi eidT .eieaez issue s3rIsIsd—no 01 esilivil3s bse scsrfi lo ins1sviup iibsi3 ecu lo oils sub

neulT . oirni eidi llsD [.() ss] .bohsq club isvo [(9—a—I)\'f] oilsi sib lo sgaisvs us niAsi

seerli isrti smuecs SW Ii 2ei3ivii3s sllinsv-nisiq ecsrli lo 3risIviup libe13 sib lo elEmilee us ci

bohsq sub ievo isrfi sioM) .eiseas issue s3rIsIsd 03 noirxoqoIq sidsie 'his1 iii nismsi esilivils

beiwlbs ci iscii inslsviups iibs £ nizido 03 'ILsni9 (.sldsie Idsrioassi esw olisi sub OV—IQI

wriT .(jbs)K sdmuui bsieiilbs sub IlsD .@) ni K moil x isiidue sw 2silivil3B '(ah 'Ino 51u1qS3 ol

— (9——X)\'{] = — = (lbs)K (V)

isor io1) -YM sib as (1bs) ol islsi sw n3iaiano3 io1

srw1sd—no lo noiisiI £ as inelsviups iib33 s-DIM sub eioIq ocis 1-ISILD .( toth on\c arisoI ieerle

?.o3 io1 ikY,3 ociit\3 enolisisqo tierli bsesetni (1JfIS3fiurIi2 evsrl eEnsd nisio1 sbsaeb lesi sib tsvo isrii lsizec on ciii

sbiflirzsm sib bsisi35zqqs I1u1 etsvtsedo we? tevswod llrIs3et ev liinU .csls1 bsiinU sub rthliiw

IBi3ffIo sub isub bewoife (QQ1) disc bus s1usDzM d bzfle A .noiisib3mlelni [risd niso1 lo

Page 16: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

LC&T!LGUJGIU2 9'Uq cbj LGdfl!LGWGIJI2) VUO1JL L201J 2 IJ21 qic fl' fLG Mp!CJf IJO

qi[cLucc2 fJrn AOLG 0LG!U puc pvc pccu CJWUGq (toL cx9'wbJG q GLCUrJ LC2GLAG

OLG!IJ 2J19LG Oj, p9u1qu 2 JCGJX tO qccjuc O1 LC20U 12 UflUJCL 0 fJJ LGfljtOLA

!22flC pnt OUC tP1 !2 pcAoiiq OfiL ocnv j qo' OMAGL coulGctntc qJST ,OL 2GAGLJ LG2OIJ2 luG

HOM qJc p9'IJlC cicqv 4oM2 91G qqq GtMGGU OLGU uq qoulG TcGUt!t!G !2 TJ 1UtLIJ

MSX LGUGCt qcpu LU luG LOfG 0, PffIluC!U'

OAGL tpG T8O2 urnX pic LGJGCiG ucLG2Gq cowbGnt!ou OL OWG2C psIxc2 pr 1 qq UOt !U UA

to WC2(LLC pC !wbo.wucc o, COU JGLCJ pup to qr GcoUouJX JJJG L!G LU tJJ 1.OLCIU 2pLG

cowwcj pup IpGA ponjq p qqq to OfiL qcrtGq wrac o, pujc cLcqit HGLG ont oj !

2!UCG qJC 0U12POLC I,0LCU IOJ2 LGUGCt J0U2 10 fl' 1JLIJfl i1J1 2LG IJr cqitcq pA

0JJJ0LG C0UJUJGLC1J J0U2 totjq p!Jj!oIr (2GG jpjc yj pi tG ybbGuqpr)

nirnq1,rr2tq 2pI.G TI bciccut Mp!JG tpc q1rf2tGq 2pLG1•rTwbGq 10 3J bCLCGIJI BA r!ULGboI4cq

bGLccut Mp!JG qi sqlrr2tcq 2G (Mplcp tooJc ccornu o, og,poi. Jou2) ii bctcw iu tpc

flJC j2t qGcqc lU Iôg rpc nuqrr2tGq 2JJ'LG o, pujc 22G12 pjq pA 0LC!U P2111(2 M2 2pOrt

ocjA WG22flLG dnut!rA o oLc!u pujc J02112 i dntc f2IG yuq pc q2cLcb2ucA LCM OAGL

rucJnqG IpG 0420LC p00J(iU2 CP9I.t Q 2J10M2 tJJ2t tuG q2cLGbucA pcritcu tpc ctnj uq tc

bLopjcur fIG jLc22nLA C0JGCt2 q2t ,L0W ff2' 0LL0MGL2 Uot ,L0W p2111(2' jpGLG,0LG !t2 UflUJPCL2

ccrijcA 2U 2GW oprucq qw ,Low tpc fl'' jLc22nLA tpr aoq tp!2 WG22(TLGUJGUI

U0M 0, puq 2CCOnJJt2a qrq hOt C2btflLG 2flCJI 01L2IJOLG poojqua

IPGuL 0UJG OWCG2 OL 1J 12X p2AGU2 flU,0LttIU2tGJA tIJC 0JJC2 fl' 212t!21!C2J 20flLCG2 UCJr1qU tpG

9U corrjq 2oq fl LC2GLAG LcdrI!LGWCIJI2 ! tpcA poojq j02112 onrqc tpG flurtGq 2W1G2 t

,0L 102112 pA 0LG!U p9111(2 11J91 MGLG poojccq 01J,21J0LC J0L 9 UflLUGL 04,AG9'L2 fl 0JJCG2 0, 1.0LCU

UfTW9CL2 LG91JA nuqcL2t9lcq OLG!U !UAOIAGUJGIJI' bi.qcnj WGLC 92 PGGU UJ!U!UJ91 9CCOnUt1U

P:t

Page 17: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

!u CP'-t i1'G Be1 wcpoq !2 ewbo?eq jq we iic-s wctpoq we o—psuce 2GCt

OL pOflt OIJG-jrnfl O we qcAOu O tpe qnteq p3uc 2JJ'LG IJflUJGL LOW (JiG rnrnqn2tGq UflUJGL

COLLGC(!LI OL OJ?POLG OLG!U Jcuqu (cc j,pjG y u pc vbbcuqix) ECP coi.icctiou scconu

M 2O cowbc (JIG cjue !uiboI.tucc O COLLGC(iU tOL O—pJ91Jce IJGCt CA!(JG AGI2(T

O beccuv

dntc w0qc2t JJJG AGL puJc 2JJL OAGE. qJI bcLoq J2 SLJ? AGLSU LGfGL rpsu

zjow tJJG COU(C)C o (JiG euqLc pnL qccqc2' qic qGcJJuc !u rpc pujc 2JiG 2IIJCC qic bc !u row

rpsi occncq uce tpc bcjc u uq w iic- wcq.roq ejiwiustc uestjA jj o yuq AJGMCq

qJu qoc (pG BZGJ wcqJoq BIG B2GJ wcqioq Gj!UJ!lrntG2 pont ouc-jJ o e qccjpc JU p31qc 2J1atC

iwo uictpoq ?qeq 2!w!rL e2np—rporrp cxbecteq qie wIc- werpoq bLoqrrcc2 jtet cjrnue

Gdn!I1cur (Kecfl rp1 L41c-5 ! LoflJJ ttcwb to !oJ(c L!21Q O[—puCG peGt ctrMtie2) jpc

cjccr o, pe cbpJsfiou wGipoq 2ucc p LGtC coLLG2bouq2 pct to tjie BC1 cLGqJ(

LGI(!AG to tpe nlrnqirl2tcq 2p91e [u IJJJ2 cpi.r MG we cLeq GdnJJJcIU to !iVtLte (pG

bio CPG q12tGq 2p9LG 0 COUJ11JGL!91 PUJC 22t2 !U fOWJ U1JIJC!J !U(GUlleqiou

2Ji9LC o o Juteuucqicq S22Ct2 uq () c wutrIqe o psuc cLcqt LeJr!Ae to ODI

cb!tJ!pou we(poq MG tpeu nze qie q1•n2(eq LG(G2 o Lccowbrr(e rpc oJJoMiJ: (!) p'uJc

ccqp edn!A1eu OL oJ—pJIJce 2PGC( S22C( 91Jq 1JOtPGL (p( fl2G2 (JiG UOIJpJtGLG2( Jucowe

nuLcbot.teq ojpoi.c Jou MG couu.nct tio Lcte: oue qrnt ac c B2Gt ctrnrnrc to GUGLtG

M UOM bLc2cu( WG2flLC2 O (olJ pujc 922G12 (J19( 9q1n21 OL pOtJJ O—pJ9uce 2PCG( SC(JA(JG2 uq

o\ otc 'c 'v.vi

pG LGAGL21IJ COI1L2G

qonpt cconuteq tOL 2OWG ot wc L!c !u Ipe api.e o pLcJu jeuqtu qnuu we ro bbGI2 (0

Page 18: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

WG92flLG 0 PU12 !Wb0L1JC9 10 giG 0AGL9JJ ccououiA 11391 giG L91!O 04 9IJJC 922G12 10 ODb iic

P9L1JC2 2139LG 0 1UGLWCq19Gq 922G1 poqu2 jJJ!2 C0IJ2qGLst01f 13OMGAGL qoc 1301 91.JGC1 OI1L L0fl13

CLGq1 91Jq 0t)JCL UU9IJC!91 siiq bcqpLurnucc II9L9UtGG2 JJ1112 OfiL Bqifl2tcq UJIUJPGL2 W9A 0AGL2I9IG

9 J9CJC o, 9f9 9A9!l9PIJ!1A IUTLffIJCC cowb9uic2 1 bi.rcrrt' 139AG pecu 9C1!AG ! !2fl!U JGUGL2 a

1301 pccU 9JG 10 I9JCG 9CCOfWI 0 o—p9J91Jcc 213GC1 9C1!A!1!G2 O OIJJGL IJ9uCI! IUIGLIJJGC1I9L!G2 qflc 10

2JJGGI 9C1!A!r!G2 ?qGq L9JGL 21W!19L Lc2t1J12 OfiL UIIUJPGL2 W9?t G pi92cq 130MGACL 131 11.191 MG JJ9AG

CU!qc 401JGt13GJG22 11 2 LG922nL!IJ 11.191 IMO AGL? 13JGLGU1 9bbLO9CpG2 10 9CC0IJIJ113J tOL 04—p9BCG

AG LG9qJJ? 9CJCU0MjCG J91 OfiL 9q1n21wcu12 10 giG J0M O fTU2 P9I9UCG 213CG1 919 9LG

21G9qA MqGU2 92 01J—P9191JCG 213GG1 9C1!A!1!G2 L0M 131 !133boLt9UcG10

tOL G9C13 L9110 i 2rwb!? u nbMq b9JJcJ 2131J o gic nu9qn2rcq 2cL!c2 V1GL 9POfll TX qic 9b

cotLc2boliq clo2GIA 10 giG L4IC-I cL;qt G&11A91G131 hLOW L0r1P1A ThQI 10 T8 tPc 9q(T21cq G4G2

1301 ucnqc giG p9cJ-9qn21cq L91!02 U giG C139T42' 2131CG giG B92G1 cLeqit CdITIA9JGIJI 0G2 1301

WG92IILG Ot 0J—p9J91JCG 213GG1 9C11Mt!c2 (2cc cP'u2 yj uq 131 giG vbbcuqr) jp uic MG qo

922G12 10 U0UiU9J ODb HGLG MG fl2G giG 4IC-T cqt cdfqA9JcIJf' Mp!Cp 2 giG COliJbLcpGU2!Ac

J/c 9j20 blot giG L91!02 Ot 9qfl2tcq p9uJc 922G12 to totj IIJIGLWGqISLA 922G12 9uq 9q1rr1cq 9UJC

bLoqrlcc2 9 20WGM1391 J9LGL CJJ9UG

tOL o—p9J9ucG 2JJGGI 9C1!A!1!G2 9bbc9'L2 10 GUGL91G 2!UJ!19L LG2flJIE 130MGAGL G MIC- wcrjioq

!Wb0LI9UCG 2 131 giG bLGA!on2 C92G (1U G13JJGL giG B9ZGJ OL giG MIC- CLGq1 cdfl!A9JGIU 10 9CCOflUI

L91102 COIJIIIJflG 10 L12G jfl2 LG191!AG 10 CDb COUJWGLC!9J 9UflIJ 9bbG9L2 10 139AG 13JCLG92G 131

0 pigc 922G12 LCJ9IIAG 1° CDb iJJJ!1c gic flhi3qr12tGq L91!0 U9UGU Ofit 9I1GL giG IMO 9qn2tcq

CP'L1 LGbG9I2 giG GXGLC!?G bor.u9AGq ! CP9LI 11J! 11UJC U0LW9!U giG 9qfl2tGq WG92flLG2

giG LGUJ9!1J!U ouc-q.13Lq

COLLGCIIOU 9CCOfIUj2 LOL 90flt IMO-tpiLq2 Ot giG ci GLCUCG uq giG t0LG!U Guqu C0LLGCI!OU GXbIS!1i2

TQ

Page 19: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

VI

2rloiJBIu3Is3 &Li ru b32u 2Jn3ffiviup 31b3-ia s-DIM 3rb bria 13a 3rD riiod isrD 3iaEriqrn3 oelE

3rD 'InO .E3iflvUQa 333r12 33nBIBd—flo a*usd lo 332du2 z 1no iol inuo33s 8 briE V 2rlzflD nih3brw

brIE IA 2flEriD 1niA) .3viarl&blqrno3 e1qbnhq cii ,s bsw sw 36db airiIsviups 31b313 1-D114

(.xibnsqqA srD ru A lo s3nRr]oqmi 5(11 ruhusm o3 iboiqq insflib '1euiiits nE sIJeIUq sw noii332 ix8fl sf11 nI

"(.xibrusqqA sili ni EA sldsT ss) .a3nuo336 &norii Icnoiisn srb moil LiEb gruiw grlblrl6d

siuaasM bbbA-suIaV

2)1rIEd IEblsmmo3 1o—- 1o—iuqluo 3imono3s srIJ siuarsm 03 21 n013382 Eidi ni IEo mO

.eirnJo33s smo3ril IsnoilEn sf11 molt noilEmloThi niw

lo iois irtsisThb lo b8bbE-suIEv sf13 no nohsmio'Ini sbiv'olq .inuo3s 3(1103(11 IBfIoiJ&I srll'

ElEb osa srI6nh sf1T .V.QI iii ngsd a&is srIT .1ois IBbrlsnfl srD ruibu13ni 'moruo33 3(13

isdbo brIE us1oid 23xriqmo 33n61u2n1 2noiflJ1i32ni (Ioii2oqsb ioI noii&rnolrxi 31sqs sbuI3rui

.OQQI f1uo1r11 eldEliEvE 1rio sz LiEb bsbbz-sulzv 1o3382du2 ssrb ir152siq IA .2shsibsrrrlsirui iibsl3

3iLJqrno3 3onn srIo 23i1Eib3rn13Ini IEi3n&lfi -idi sIdslizvErw 21 5IUgft 23162 lElol £ 321JS33H

sdJ d bsirlse3IqsI 21 iois 21± iot bbbs-u1sv bE332cuI .Eborbsm blsbnEl2 r1i2U bsbbE-SLIIEv 113th

ahz1s briz asgsw lo 1hBmhq be2oqrno3 SIB r13ir1W noi33xJbo1q lo e1oi1 us ol 21n8mBq lo mu '.noi3Ei3s1q3b bris sansqxs iasslni a3fioiq

srb moli insT1ib sliup 2i insmsliJ2sem o3 rf3so-iqqs bsbbs-sulsv 1 is± siasr1qms sW

irisisThb eiuO2 slsb sthi SIB 1rio ioM .11011382 woiveq etli iii bso1qms sw 135o-iqqE 333112 s3rIEfsd

sth 31qi3nhq cii ai rI3EoqqB bbba-u1v 8± bssbriI .2126d thwqs3noz ni'hsbnu 3± i oa iud

ml 212LJtbs 1Is-iuisn ii f13so1qqs 335r12 s3nsIsd srIJ slihriU .noiludhjrlo3 'E)lnsd tiinsbi 03 'sw 3s1uq

21 lodsl ssio1qms hisd lo ithow 21Ellob £ 1sIqmsx3 ,o1 .a8iiiviis lnsd lo 3-lulEn srli ni asnzth

bbbs-eu1sv 5± 81o1818(1T .lebslj qEWa £ 03 O 181183 £ ol bisq ai 31 18(138(1W 8mE2 3(13 bsisslJ

Page 20: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

811

wril) z3hsib3rrno.irli LciDnEnft rbo briz E±IEd lo 5iiivibE irfa 3311a1ad—lIo ha 81uiqa3 Hiw iuaa3rn

-3uhEv 5rfi -z3voioM .(2iz1zns auoiv8iq iuo cii aaid lo suoa Isiin3iog irianoqmi no rthanimiI8

bna z*isd io1 ai3aa irf &nslcd—no lo clouiaoqmo3 &hi cii asuisrb 511nq53 bIuor1 eiuasrn bbbs

griibnel lah-,ewol lo nio vom oj nd ascl bnsn &D eLcisd Ici313mrflO3 iol .eshsib3rnl3iril I3rhi0

131tID bris boH a 1brin zirfi lo 28Iqrnsx3 iol) .rIibcI31 5viarIicu-noiJErrr1o1r Iah-I3rIgicf oni

cb io1 nath 'iiviz iflzI 3rb iol I5r1iII 1hiI ai aaes lo isilob iq b3bbs-3uIsV (.QI QQI

.mio1

[ai3l3rnrno3 ioI ciab L&iojz nicirtiem 3on ob a3nuo335 emo3ni tsnoiisn &fi Iaruino1nU

3buI3cIi ('I—Q arisrfD iuo cii bris) aifluo33s a8rhJ cii bsIIs3 is iziiW .av18am3rhj d alrtsd

sIno 51E siab a3rb bnA .aInsd agrtivsa IcWum bna kicd eriea$I IciebI zLnad 1cb1rnrno3

.sbsm enoiis3ffleasI3 Ithiwbcii bisbrisia cii 23rIsrb 3sb isdi iaiIA .V8Q! r1uoirhi 3IdShisvs

V8QI briosd so bris irI5iaiarlo3 h1s3hoi2i1i i sdi athz iiwbth gnblnad £ nisicto o io1ir1T

asbuI3rii II . iEg51s aith 11E3 eW .1 3gs 8V121J13(1i eom (13V3 ciB enimsx8 iaum w Eriom acioiiiflhi2nz jib33 aciiwd anoinu iibi3 aciso1 bria aciivaa aulq 3vocJs b3nfi3b as alnsd

rh brts noiisi3oaaA 3sgr1oM isrioijsVl Isb3I uhi as rl3ua) a3bris rIiirIuo3Eibi bris a1nsd

al(fl01E30A 5srIoM lsrioiizM irImrrx3voO

lsioi rhi lo sinq a as b3aaiqx iiaubni nb1ncd 3± 'd b3bbs 3u15v 3c13 awoita Q liariD

3ri1 iii nworfa is anoijinfi3b 'çi2aubni gnblrtad cIioEl .ioja IaibsrrrI3ir1i Isi3cianfl cfi d b3bbs 3uLsv

no1 vo 35± ai Q i-xssID mo-ft 33ado ol ni± nisin 3ciT .b31518rio3 1r1gir1 iz rliod bris Mar13

vo Jsrfw3moa nias,.ni riirthns Ii 3nsiano3 'his1 b3rIiErni srf b3bbs-3u15v lo mr1a 'aAnd nin

.a3qola 3viliaoq s1qaib E&i3E rhiod u1uoith b3nfi abn3fl emij iasniJ .511113

Isi3narIft -tol r1i3nuo33s Sfcio3ni tsnoiisn luocts a13voiino3 gnibnsia-rio1 £ 2f sisriT

ir1i1 iii '.oi33a Etch cii arrnft iol anoiithuqmo3 bsbbz-sulsv lo 3s1u335 sib iiioda bits aehsibsmisjrii

Page 21: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

hiaubrii rfi Lii arrnfi lo 2iuqni 1oi31 Eli 2bn513 3isgiizevni oi Izftzu i ii izdb rliIrniino3 fi lo

bLiE cw !EUZU rii iii b3luaEem 3hib3rxnini Ibnsnft iol aiuqrli 1oi3s .iuqiuo iirfi hew a IB3oi lo 51rI2 'a(nsd eworfa 01 flErD .zehizubrii ,erbo oi evilEfel loTI3 03 I3QdUE 'hE1u3iJ1q ion eiz

1si3n&zfi cxi iriemoIqme Isiol b ineieq £ as (ainethviupe ernii-rIsq bits -ilul rliiw) inernoIqme

eqof eviiiaoq £ es1qib lnerrzo1qme lo ei&ia ta1nsd iii brxefl rrriei-no1 ei'IT .2rrnfl isib&riie3rii

ioI .O8Q1 erb iii qoib iaebom £ ebsm evcrl 01 aiseqqa Ii ievewoH .euiasem ierliie ol nibIo33s

V4 iuods ol 8Q1 cxi ineeq 0 xevo iwlmoil beqqolb iibel3+aLnsd lo eisrla e11i e1qrnsxe

.QQI ui

lo zirIe3leq £ ES iriernqiupe brts inslq cxi inerniaevni Isioi lo e1rfa 'aInsd awouf a 11 tisrlD

lo len eIs aiedmun eaeciT .ioiea 'çisibemieinii lsi3nsrltI erb ni irlemlzevni inemqiiipe bits inslq lsioi

iol isnhi e(iI rI3um (I3V ai eleff eiui3iq erfF .noilsflni lo eieTe enLi iol belauLbs eis bits noi1si33Iq3b

.3lLJeBem ierbie 03 gnib1o33s eviiiaoq ai bneii rnnrio! erfi ai isnlT .(O1 risniD ni) lnem'o1qme

eisnia-iuqni sub i&Li ni1on ulriow ai ii .bcx5xj woled Ilsi asiuassm nijod aO821 1iss sib cxi isvswoH

bnsu svods h1sul3E ai bbbs-su1sv lo sisnla xierft assien1w O821 bnuois qoTh eAnsd iol aeuassm

iizubni ni abusil 3ns3si nisewied s3nIelsThb sili iol noiisnislqxs sib lo ShE ion sis eW .a0821 sub ni

on ai 313113 231U2E3ffl sasdi lo IIE 01 rnb1o33s isrb ai isvswon1 1ssI3 ai isnLVl .aiuqnio bits aiuqnxi

abnisil emil bsnft xie hA .ruri nio1 enfi ievo eis,ia 13*ism iaoI asni nbEnisd Isi3lemmo3 isril 33n13biv3

.asqola sviiiaoq 's1qaib 11—2 erisnlD ui

'm0ni035 Isnoiisn sib 03 SviIsIsl s3flElloqmi 'alnsd eIsa ew Ii sisb issria s3nslsd sib nfiiw aA

1sinsnft sub lo nfiwolg sf13 lebianoD .lsiL1hd neve ai slui3iq sib ,eshsibsmsirii xsrbo 03 lo bseini

bebbs SLIIBV 3(13 wor1e ilEfl3 silT .1 tistlD 111 ES (ffl0fl033 Isioi ecu 03 evilsIel l0333E isibemieini

bsassl3nIi Esni egsinls3lsq airlT .qcio Isiol lo eEif1s31eq s as lo3352 isibsmisini Ist3nsnfi ecu 'd iol slrii ai errisa sf11 ievewoH .gniulduob nsib eom i3s1 Eli bohsq elqrnsa erli ievo 11siinsiadua

Page 22: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

3rD I brts €1 eflEriD ni nworlz EA .qQO 1ioi oj b3bbE 3ulBv 1i 10 31zr12 'e(nBd lo 31U2E3ffl iriJi3

lo zo33s1 3rD d bs1qEib i (mono33 llsl3vo di nsth rbwoig biqsi siom rI3um) i1uai

3n3rrIivrii Ia3iq3 ni cfJwog 3rfT .emift b3isIsl-[nad lo bris iob -IEib&rn33ni r1i lo noiiuboq

1S!3flEflñ erD 3E13 i23U2 1ifl832i2fIO3 ezo1i&1j zib a3LIT .3iiErnEIb 'h1u3inBq risd aBrl

.mono33 IIsl3vo 3rD o3 3virnI3l 1flaubni r1Jwoi £ ns&J &l 1nd gnibul3rii 1o33 (IEib3rrfl3ini

nwobwol2 gnibn9J 1IIIfl in$I nb lo 2noiai(qmI

3om i i&b i3u2 LiEb 23rUJ033B 3m03111 thnoban 3rD brie LiEb 3r12 33rI1Ed b312u[bE 3rD rlioa

s1 1i vo noi3ib3m131r1i IEz3rlEnft lo 3IuI2 '2(riEd Isi33mmo3 flu 3rIifz)3b fr1i1a £ rid cr1 313(11

2e313rL33rIoM .33rlBrioqrni ni rIii asri qUO lo nnoqmo £ as nb1nsd nirfinE Ii briA bs3b

(1r12 33n51sd—no) lo 33E1 r1iwoi rb ni qcnb 1iins3ac!ua his1 £ 25W 513(13 QI 03 8Q1 mrnl

333(12 33rIB1Sd b3ieulbB 3113 ni b3iasr1qrn3 w 35± 23ui 1n3m31u2s3m 3rfT .gnibrl3l lnsd L6iI3mmo3

d 13gls1 b3rIiBIqx3 3d sm rIEq tho 3rD lriirD 3W .norz3rnon3rfq aiilj lo risq io1 irIuo3)s noiJ33e

Ia 3i3Bmo3qm2 21 Ii isrli 3v3i13d o nozssi 1s13 on 21 513r1T .suflsri ni 1o3i2rtB1i 36± aioi3EI

.gnbErizd ni eriib8b ioism

-ib3mleJni Lsi3nisrlfl Isioi bris i3aas !risd EnSol hisd Isi lo 23351 nllwolg 8(11 Eiolq 1 rIJ3rID

23nh133b llbE3i2 2nsoI 1nisd lo 8351 thwrng erD no 81 moI .Q—VQI boh3q 3(13 13V0 238226 'is !Eni2ubrn bris 1513,emrno3 ni qolb £ 03 eiib 21 enjil3sb er11 lo isoM .OQQI ni 3viiE3n nimo33d

w81 rf3irlw i51hEm ieqsq Isi3lemmo3 sib 1ev3woH (.QQI €221 e1rieO bnis boa 33) .gnibnel

nonernorl3rlq 21113 ii1ise b3ugis evsrl 8W 2A .5n 38b 21± lo 311102 b3tho2ds boheq 21113 13V0 1biqsi

no moll rIibn9I (h2D) Ishiwbni bnS !5i313fflm03 3i1sup-(1gi(1 lo juirlz £ 2333fl31 risq )aom 3(13 iol

iibsl3 qinl3sd rioqqua bsurliino3 ebivoiq 11siq elnsd 33ni2 2338(12 e3nEIsd 'elnsd ecu Tto 01

lo eieH .enfI3sb erli lo noirloq 13±ons bsthoads elnsd r1i31O1 eiorlsltO .e31nsmu bris 23r1i!

Page 23: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

!uIiq cbr iqqqi cbrri cuiucp (jg-jy J91C Pi1C2 j'9 10 WJCG IJJG LG121 G10L1 £0 I4? 1J UGM1)

JO22G OACL £JJG !ô8O !WbIA bnpGq £JJGUJ IJII4JGL pGJOM JG WG1J JJJGLGOLG !U flJQ bcjc Ac o

cuq;q £0 obcLrc M!fJJ Cb!1J\22G1 Lt02 flJ1 MGLG MGI! PG!OM 1P WGSU JJJG pnc JOmJ

FDC uq COWWGLCJ LGJ G211G fcuqu EflL1PGL Giu pco.c Jou ro bJcq nb ji2c pujc

j) jpc pujc riJG€q qiabLoboToIrn J0Z2 o cb!r1 2ucc pcX pq uAG2rcq u pop

jpc btru.c ou cb!1J ii bu!cnJLJ? C(T1G 0L jLc puJc (c oq uq ujc

M2 qiG BS2GJ yccoq (uq !12 UCM B12 cb!J 2uq9Lq

LGfl!012 £itGUG rIbGLA!!ou suq uJboGq UGM LG21uc1!o1J jucjnqq wou tpG UGM

o njror.? IJqmq2 u LG2bou2G £0 £G qG1GL0L1IJ couqjou O qGb0210LA rniou

co1jb o bLoUl2 ILl 4CflUTLG 0!f sIJq LGJ CZWIC JJJG ccoiiq C10L H2 £JJG ociGq £!P1GU!IJ

rji; boaw b;uoq pcac pocjc ucJnqcq rpc fc22-qcAGJobGq conu.? (r'Dc) qGpl CL2 uq £G

io puc jou bol.1oJio2 Ipsi 2npuqJJ?t qcbjcfGq pi.qc cbij p? bLoqcrcu LGC0L jou

(ci. tcibtci cci) #pru Ip; pujqu ruqriw.) jp jt Ms2 2GUG SAGL2G pocjc

iu (G JgO2 GAGLJ C10L2 C0UJUG £0 bLoqncG (ip wuA OGLACL cui Ms2) S

cibtci Ct\1

L51G2 /AG SuSJ)G ;SCp !U £IILU

jcuqu 2J0MOMIT JpG olpcz. u/op ip j-j LGCG220U suq pc saocsq qLob u Jou-1GLw

JJG LGCGIJI csbij poi. Mp!cp (SccoLqu 10 UflWGL0r! sriq.roL) /S S 2UJCU1 SC1OL !U luG

!U p9uJc juqpi MGLG SI fGS2I IMO OIJJGL C10L2 IIJSI MGLG JSLGX £LSu2!IoQ !IJ IJSWLG !IIOV2

BGouq 7G2G WGS2flLGWGUI 1TG JJ0MGAGL MG £p!IJ!C (1351 flhJqGL?qIJ w

IP LS1G CZI

C0CIL2G 113G btopj;w 12 113G 5!IflLC 0 UcflqG luG 522G12 0 0LGU 02130LG 9UJC2 pi (1JG WGS2rILC 0

Page 24: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

&(i ni lOi3Ei '13)[iL s aw ii ith ei 2320qIUq uo ioI rf3nLrI3 1siqz3 3r13 b e3n3flin:a &fF

lo *iow 51b rbiw gnirinid ni insi bo 3muIov auorrrlon3 nA .nwobwo!a nibn31

ad (1QQ1) ninao5I bits i33q bns 1(IQQI) no2ndo1 (!QQI) gnoli&1 (IQQI) riwol bris 1nsrri l3nsq zu iqsq 323ff .boil3q ai(1i vo griibnel bns Iciiqs3 )1nsd risewlsd flOii3sflflO3 £ befihiriebi

.1621q63 lo S3rleuflru rfi iol wolls isifi erioiisups 1qqua risol 3jsmiies oi a)1nsd Isubivibrii rio sisb

bris Lsiiqs n33w3d )1nul ecu a1oi31 '(iois1u31 b 33n3lJflni r1i isvo sisdsb need asrf 313(13 31i(1W

noiisi-isv idi gnullolino3 lefts aviviue )1niil aith i&LriijI .iaudoi '1iis1 ed 03 briuo1 ne3d asrl nibnel

asw ii Isib riwor16 '1Jn333l evsrl (Q1) insileiieq bits nwoJ 1lsniI .a)1nsd eeos bnsrneb nsol ni

bits IRiiqs3 n88w33d )1II1I 3113 ai i&fi) riibnef no beniqmi Isiigs3 larli 2)Insd eizl gnoms 1nism

isril 83n3biv3 ieilise ecU rbiw 8Idiisqmo3 zi gnibnfl aniT .(a)1nsd is1 noms laerIo1i2 asw griibriel

.2)Insd 3g161 io1 en3s laorn 13)lil asw 6310(12 isnqs3 erb

3w 3iqo3 ir13 rio e3nebive lsmloI ecU ol bbs 03 3131315 ai11i lo eqo3a ecU brioed 21 Ii elirIW

wsi enlJ ni 3ri5251 2136113 IliwoIg ieas bus Isliqs3 n33w33d )1nil &11 work ol Itlleau 2131 isnli )1riirti ob

OQQI mon ise' n1ae nit 238225 113(13 bsl3snno3 a)1nsd bexi1siiqsiebnu j eldsT nil nworla eA .sisb

a)1nzd beIilsiiqs3-113W .8361 irIe3leq I £ luods 1no is EQQI iii merli beasel3ni bits QQI rlguoirfi

.irIe3leq V2 Juods gfIigwisvs 2lZ3( 323(1310 (1353 lii c1iwog iS2aE lo 23161 eviiiaoq beiidirlxe 15V3WOIl

lo lolysrIed 8th bris 233225 lo 101 vsrlecl erli neswied rlalugnulaib 01 inisrioqmi 321IJ03 'bo ai II

-lsnqs3lebrIu aaoiz)s riiwoig risol nil ae3rlelsThb 3(12 EQ—OQI boheq 3± io'b iscU awoila I sldsT .ansol

IQI ru .riiwoig 15225 flu as3IlsleThb 3± as emse ecU f11guol 515W e)lnsd bsi1siiqs3-1lsw bits bsxi

15 123)163W asw Ii riguorti 23flogs3E3 Its ioI nliwoig 18226 waled 26W rliwoig risol bail

ilJwo-ig risol EQQI ni lgnuiase1nI .a*tsd be.i!s3iqse-Itew Is ieegruona bits aAnsd besil63iqs3iebnu

.aeilogeIs3 15(130 sIll io'1 insngsie bsnismei lud a)1risd bsi1sJiqc3-llsw io'b 1lsiinidue qu be)131q

Page 25: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

bn nwoJ b ihiq2 8th ni rtiwo izs Ii briE iz nvri8d 110i138fl1103 8th zrioqi 1dT

iuo rbiw qsh8vo l13h8q bit ob ie d bas2ib LiEb ujo 'InuTio1riU) .(QQ1) inEij2jl3q

XQ-48QI 8± xsvo 1biqs I ri3um wig 2)LnEd 3gis1 &IT (.3Eup8bz 1siiq d bcgs1ggEaib LiEb

111 21r1Ed lo 52 irie nsId o 83E1 rfiwoig 8Ei3VE 8flT .-i1wbni erfi b izi 3(11 bib nsrb boh3q

asw sisi rliwoig 8gs18v5 viiwbni 8(11 asx1w 1n18q V.0 '1no asw togis noillici OIZ ivo 3(11

ahnu[ Isiiqs3 (I0lElug81 wol3d i1tui1 s18vC no iw elnsd is1 IsrIi 1n31x8 3± oT .1f13313q £.4

anoms iisi ed ol thwo nsol ni 3nu133b 8(11 (Lsup3 gni8d a1 r1ir13i3v3 rijiw) 338qx3 bIuod2 3w

.bnuo't ins1ith bris nwoJ 15(1w 113Ex8 aiuo b i ziriT .2)Insd 325±

b322u32ib 2m3ldolq in3meIuzsm edi bno'8d) izrIi iue ol e3nsbivs 21 318(13 '(Ismrnu2 iii

03 rIsq iii sub sw griibrl3! lrtsd iii nwobwol2 thu2urw srfl (no13332 153(12 331S15d bsizulbs 8db ni

Isliqs3 siL1 oi flisrni2ulbs 3± b rbuM .dnsd sgisl d 1iismFiq b33rishsqx3 2rn81doq 3srfa e3rtzIsd

3v5r1 -iiwbni sdi nidiiw eoiisi isa2a\IsiiqsD .83s1q n1si 3vs1 ol issqqs ievwor1 ,esflor12

1ssvsa .1s31qs3 b in3mrI2irI31q3 3(13 oi 3ub s1tisq bns aeaas iii irisrniauths 01 sub 1risq bsvoiqmi

.isfls1 5(11 iof 51di2rIoqasI sic islizm iiups sldsiovth c bits 2gfIirflBs rIO1E to 21E5'

W—O'Q\.

IQ—E8Q1 isvO .n0i225331 IQ—OQQI eth 25W nwobwol2 gnibrief 8± riihsbnu ,oiDsI 3)1 isdioriA

ZS a13a2s isib8rrn5ini Idol bib ric± 315i iswol sImio1inu £ Is W81 21822S lnsd Issi (bslaujbsriu)

issi [slob lo sIn rfiwoig sib noizs31 8± bnuoic boiisq 8± ni isvwoH .2835II2lJtli I tisrO

Issi (beiaulbsnu) to sls'i rbwoi 3db zs 53si 8(1152 8(13 iuods s bsriibsb 213225 sisibsrrnsini Isi3risrlh

isibsrrns1ni io bnsmsb niI1s1 isdi aIe5ua 8nu138b biEod-s±-2zo3s dinT .zisas 1nsd Isbi3mmo3

1 rizdD 2A .gniibrisl lnsd lo ioivcnlsd sib ioI s1dienoq23 1Iisq csw srnii 21(13 bnuois 2(1501

5(13 bnuois bsrw33o 2(1501 )lrIcd bits 21822s 1ncd lo sin u1iwog s± nil qoib qisdE lEIi(n12 £ 23id11au1Ii

Page 26: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

bnsrn3b 35111 flui23u2 11e1 oa1 aieza isib3mini 1io3 o eisi iiiwoig 3rIT .fl0122333] V—tVQI

.*IOW 35 rncgs 315W 2103351

ion ss I tmriD ru aisaac brus arisol 1nsd lo 25151 rliwoig sf11 isrfi siasrfqms oats sW

ion oh sw rlguoriT .noiizsa lssrla s3nsIzd bsiaujbs sill ni bsaisi auaai insmsmassm erli lol bsiauLbs

brus ansol ngiio1 siorkfio bsiiimo o1 ano1i3sTIo3 iii riibbs '1qmie 31srl ailuasi 3± worla

sgSirIS3leq Lsisv 'd aisass [risd bus ansol lrusd lo sisi riiwo 8± asaisi aeiiivii3s issrla 33nclsd—To

.OQQI ol V8QI molt aiss' 3(11 ievo ainioq

.S3n8bivS ion airli sI cEQel bus QI ui qu )131q ion rlibn3l lnsd bib rlW Las w I1sriiI

.ion 1n1± eW csrul3sb ui si nbhisd tsi3lsmrno3 isdi bus snsd3 IsinsrnsbruiI £ nssd asrt 318(13 isulJ

('morio nhvosi £ Ii bnsmsb nsol gniltI io isif slqmsx3 iol) asboaiq3 islimia nsd svsrl sisrrr

abnxi1 1sriiini lo 'lqqiia 3113 01 bbs Isvo3si 3± bsisi3oaas awoft 11as3 niai5I .iasq 3(13 (II

isifi 3± ô'Q! iii 'Iauoiiqisiq 1131 ansol Ansd slqmsxs io1 .nanfl lSrn3ixS iol b3sn 3111 gninsqmsb

insnsia nuiasua nsd 3vsrl sw as noiiibb nI .fl01523331 V—4VQ1 3(11 ISils (I3VO35i ecu lo is3 Isioi isdi aworfa xibneqqA e± ui A eldsT .aInsd 151315mmo3 03 SuplIW need ion asrl nibrxe1

.IQQI enia isfl 11siineaae n83d Sari aeinsqmoz) e3rIsrxfl lnsdnon d nibn31 aaeniaud

zi 103351 sriO .i3vO381 eirli 01 isilu3eq 318 15± bevlovni 2103351 13±0 lsievsz ed sm eierIT

elsIze lsi lsbIsmmo3 lo 31111 'Iis1uaiiisq si bnsn stilT .beaaeiqsb nismei aie*iam risol 311102 15111

sum iaifl 8(11 uI .a,e±o ui risrli '(Ilnuo3 erblo aiizq srnoz ni szow rf3um ai msldoiq 8± bus nibne1

b3335Iino3 iud iaew±uo2 bus iaewbiM iasrfiuo 5± ui bsbrisqxe ansol assriiwd .2QI to arbnom

d un iaebisrl snIl eisw aseis owl islisI eriT) .(sirnoIilsD '11si3eqz3) iasW isI bris iasn1fioM 5± flu

asil nibn31 aa8niaud Ansd ui noii3slinos srli lo izorn i3vos1oM (.112513 elsias lsi 1513IsrnmO3 3(11

m83Sv srias5I Isl8bel edi to alorn3voD lo bisofi) arisol in3mqolsveb bus! brie noii3lrIiano3 ni used

Page 27: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

sigirf fliSffl3i 11i32 323± , IQQI-bim 3nie nI!s1 3vsrt e3si fto-1&f3 bn nupnu13b 2si3rLW .(CQ1

.(IiflU03 dj b znq 3mo2 (Ii 2b1Ebnia !ciioiairf d griibnsqx3 iuods euoiiuz b3riirri31 3var! irmm lncd cim anoi3ibno3 rIi oi anoqi i1

htsd lo 2rrri5i lo vIu2 2' I35I ibI 3rfT .b1o331 acrl 3± 2E nv aoi1oThoq nBoI

fljd zwoiiod 3i1oqIo3 3glEl o1 2rrrI3i 3ib313 bz 1Iubsi 3vErl IriEd 3Erb a3iE3ibfli nibrI81

2brlLft 1s13b91 3± is mhq 3± b bE9lq2 eth b33brI! .enoiiEioqIo I3!1sm2 ioI o 3nob ion 3vBrf

.eb1sbn12 hoiair1 d r[irt !3m31ix3 zi rfirIw ainioq 2iad OOE briuoiz nismi sii

rn oi 2oiloIrloq rtsol ii± bnEqx3 03 bbri ion 3vErf aLnBd 3srli 21 1033s1 l3rüorIA

rL sriu b13i 1iv iasI 3rIii3vO (.xibrl3qqA sf13 ni A eldsT ss) .eifioiq 1Bnoiiq3)xs

rio abEsiqa 3Jz iasisini in11x cnss oi sidE nsed sv&1 elnsd briE b3qoI2 iq3332 isv rissd

2woff2 xibnsqqA sf1i ni A sidET .

iihua bs*Ed-stIom briE -irlsrnrrisvog lo 2grliblorl bsbrlEqxs

3UflEfI IEIJ2IJnIJ 3113 b8iorl ov&1 2iv'Iedo 2uohBV .23322E Iioi 03 23iiflh1382 lo OilEl 3(13 ni rbwoig 3r13

.5llJEoqx3 h six i.sisirü ioI IsiirI3ioq 3± briE 283fIEi2ffl1J113 323113 1o

ris bris eisi iioirii rrr18i-rIoI wol is insv8a I2EI s± ioI IE± 21 iois1 18±orts 11ii

2i isriT .erIEoi IrIEd mol 'ws noiiijiiiadxie bs3ubni sv&1 sm i*lEm 1iup3 sidElovEl b8iEboezE

-noi ri1uE21 d rüwoiiod m3i-nor1a no s3fIsbflsqsb iir1i b33ub31 3vEff arIoiiElocpo3 IE!3rlEnflrlorl

'd bsniEido gniwoiod IEioi lo noii3E-ñ rii —OQQ1 bohsq srü isvO .iiiips wsn briE idsb rrni

SIdET ss) .airIioq 3Eine33q isvo 32u1 d ilsi 2[nEd IEhrl3mrno3 moi znOiiEIOcpO3 iEiriEnfinon

823(11 I3V8WOH .Einioq 3gEin533q d Ilsi 2nEoI inBdnon Iis1imi (.xibnsqqA s± ni iA

\hsen 03 3n8313q VE moñ bsas5l3ni ri3f nw nibnE32iuo abiiod 'd is2Tlo 818W 2811i135b

'.ainioq sEsrI8318q iuod io

a*lcm9H gnibubnoD

Page 28: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

3iI 8111 ni z8iiIufftib 818V bri3h8qx8 iaubni grlblnEd 8111 JsrIJ noiton r1i 3iuq2ib Ion ob 8W

w isdW .8ij1 aith rio b32u3o1 (QQ1 Q21 i3Ij-i) bris bo8) *iow ii11s3 iuo b38bnI .20821

£ lo rnrirIi8d 3111 a1srIi2 boi-x3q 21111 13v0 33nsrrnoh3q iooq 5(11 isrtisrlw 21 noiiup oirii m11s3

bits (2511221 in5rr13IxJ2Lsrn lo 'i3hsv £ ioI biaujbs) sisb issrl2 sorisisd 3± (1ioa .3m138b irI3nsm13q

lii 3nu133b rib1h1 !ssvsi ot 11s1 23rwo3s 5rn03r11 Isrioiisn eth molt sisb iuqni bris b3bbs-suILv

.alnsd 1s1315mm03 to 31o1 erit

evsrf &1T .asviisrnsils lrisdrion mo-it noiiiieqmoo b32seI3rIi b53E1 evsrf 2)lnsd hss1D

w&i ruqo1eveb sd bris 233iV152 ILnoilibsn sbivoiq th sw sth rIirILr13 'd isvsworf b3brIoq251

01 snu1 31b3i3 molt riignE1 zs1iivii3a ieda e3rIzIsd.-Tto to 33n53-Ioqrni gnith eriT '.233ubo1q

.2irIsmqoI8vsb serb to 3iiLmoiqm2 315 2i3lJbO1q sviisvhsb

Isi3ihsquz '1no 2138fi51 Eeiilvii3L 338112 e3nsILd—Tto lo rLtwoi erli 15(LJ1L11 ,25253 nsm iii

lo 133q25 noiiEibeml3ini erD s1qmsxe io1 .nb1rtsd 1o eliflsrl eth ni 28rISr13 eviiflC22du2 115± 13±51

I1LJrI3rriEbrIu1 tori 21 a3u221 isqsq Lsblsmmo3 ot E83irIs1su o ariiI 1ibei3 qIi)132d gnibivoiq

3w aurfl' .aeinsqmo3 sbsi-r!gir1 easth oi libe13 gnibivoiq stheiib lo isth mo-il inelsitib

es aLnsd 35± (1iiB3ibni 25 aeiiiVii3s 333(12 e3flSIBd—ttO 03 iflemevOm nui31q13ini J2n1SL

.aerio blo nirrobnsds bits aaeniaud lo asrnt W811 (13i31qmo3 oiiii riivom

leS-leini aimebs3s its rtsrli eiom rir1i rtinul3eb £ tori el nbLnsd 35± irfgh sis 3w II

21121182(103 3(13 (10 beesd 3d 03 3111113(103 bns n33d 3vs11 erloiai3eb 3i1oq 3iIdxJq irrntioqml .e)1B12 is 21

(eI8I8m siv 1sjis1) nb1nsd ni noiisbiloenoD .a131em lnsd lo £31E 3111111 ci 3i1oq (13112 enO .welv

rIir1iI38b £ lo 3110 283flJ0231 ei1idom ol sw £ 211k isth ebrwo-g erli no 1rtsq bss1uo3n3 need ti (13112 irboniA .33101 23201 ifl3mhJ1L 21± 1Iig(1Ld3 1rio f1ir1i133b ion ai erD II .'iiaubni

rIinu13eb 815 e(risd JEth ei inemug-Is nornmo 3110 .aiewoq lrisd to nOiafIsqx8 8th Ci £815 3i1oq

33101 28201 oafs irismug-Is airfT .ei3qrno3 30(11163 s± anoi1siimi1 ewoq insllLJ3 tfiiw 3a1Js33d

Page 29: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

no1A .(bbnzqx3 sd bfuorf2 zwoq Ln&J cfw ariozi bilv 133sh8q istho 8d sm 313th iguorffls)

n3blud '(IoiE11J5I 3v!2a33x3 lo 321rn35d 3i3qrno3 3o(lnS3 a)lnEd idi b3u1E n3fIo i ii ,rii1 3flE2 3r1i

i1oq b3i1351 .neubni b3!duoli airb iuo ql3d 03 -isz b3liup5l no biq 3d bluorie iieni isrfi 10

bsd rio b3d zi '3iIoq 3iIdLJq II .3IdEnoi3z3up zi lath 32irn8lq a no b3ad I1 briuods Is2oqo1q

'd 3q53x5 boo sd ol '1sli1 Ion 21 ii 2noi3qmu2as

Page 30: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

j;:tn: IIjr.DOtI?. LI,t. u

Ot L.IGM AOLIC 329 85Z J 2

bGUflPIiC L4IOU9J 9UK O GM AOIK 584 I8V1 S 0COUg!U6UI 99U 530 ea•e 5'2 . U

E!L2 1ICLI 9UK Ot CJ!CO 34'J 44 JQ 30

1JK Q VW6UC 140 9832 5.11 9CJ UULU .ae r0581 530 58

otöu CnSLSWA 1Lfl COwbuX .1032 222 va 3cpui .199•9 J'2W3 393 33

8SUKGL21Ln2COWb9UA ea ros sa gCU6W!C 89U1( ZJ404 ZS'JJt0 2318 Sae

V22G1 b02!i!0U24.26CflLIfI

jqs o ynsjz

cu EdnhIsI6Uj b12j EXboflLG

ILl J3

GS2flL62 0 W6 JO 13LöG2 1T2 B9U2

vqc £JJC tob jo gpo up nc cxccqm pijporjm Lo#u ucx (.ow j go oz. pup one-

PtI (oui i !" T8 ° 5à !' Tà BL tpc LST1P1 IUTC J3T2 LSO }J2 W!tJJ £JJ 322 OL EC 10 JI-

bcicuidc o, p wtu cwa ccoz. ot111 LpC S COUJbU?JIJ wpj;) H0/A UOU JXLcg flJCOIIJC

sjtiioa sjj tp ruqnw qCLIASUAC 5C1Th1PG2 2 U pC ccuutq wsuj? SUJOIJ qi; 10 J' P1 W OLponq ;xbccg qic uc w uozmit wcoziic o pc concxi-woz o p &OMtp w o—pspucc pccg 9CUAUA jpcxi mGquzu 92CL CJfl2 O iSUJC2 A qw.A9uAc2 Xb[Wtpc op qniii jg— iii uovugit wcowc scm ofnbuziozjypcu pwqfi pscq jp; cpszpoiiupGI bjo

yuopc Xbcot ;Aiqx,c o anbboia qi /JCM qmg cx-Otcpc togs (cc psu ni Cp bbcr)cxz quinuc Thicn) ncconug OL JG22 gpsu 31J bcxccut

pspucc apc nccuuA c sAnJSpJc pcc go j pi jC2Cc c uapniou oqcimtmc£0 tuG BflCI U3CS2(fl2 0 O—

OuG Thc o CA1CUCC 2nhbozn gpc jsucx iz;t swPGcU pws2CUJDG ni qic nccowbniiXnj bstic qxt cxbivouOL uincp OUi; cxbgiivou in O-SIICC 2pGCU ncqJ1A q-S SI S ISIJIJ1 O SIZC pnujc oc rpst sccomigjjIC fl O4 qIIASUACZ JJ52 cxbjoqcq OAGL qiC I ta" ?cSI2'

o1 'si889 1880

0

5

3

A V226t 2!G CI22J882—a5

bsLCGUl9aG 04 yAGweG 2262fl'2 B9UI 40U!UGLG2j IUCOWG

JJJG BOIG 01 DG1!A91!AG2S

Page 31: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

OL P!PIA L1G COUJUJGLC!1 bbGr. rTc csu pG poiu bLoU1p1c bLoAqu qiG jou qLGcrJ7

puGL2 pvc U5DLWGq (12 !" LGCGUI bLoAiqJu ni.uGq cLcqt jii

qccJucq oicz. rjjc bo2wL bGqoq

4OUJGL uq {OWGL (J3) 2!W!IJA Gwbjrn2x qi9i JG LSTO O p1J)C J09l32 O CDb p2 UO1

2GCOL (sqJonp rpcA ic iucJnqGq qJG iu rpc UOM o jpuq cconut)

ju pi.c j poqi ic uq ocj OAGLUU1GU bGu2!ou jpuq stc cxcriqcq ow jG !u2flLuCG

bLoqncGq PSUULI GC ou rpc GcouowA

cq2rGu (j3) 9L Gx2wbIG wj qic czc 3i ;xcGic LGrrJiou o wA pi

jJG 2GAGLG qGcGUcG2 O COUAGIJ1!OU1 puc CCOfl1J!Ii 2GG OL GXffWbJG Cf J3 OL EU!U

11U L1JG22 NG 9LG UO qJG oiiA OIJG2 O pAG LGCGUIIA drIG2qouCq JJG COU2GU2fl2 AGM 01. uoGq

4yJ2O yqrnJc bLOG220L O JJ1J21JCG flU!AGL2! 0 AU1JUG2OT

GLL0L2

bLoAqcq uJncp 2nbboI.t IOL qI2 2uTqA O CO11L2C MG LGUJ9!U 2OJGjA LG2bOIJ2!pJG 40L 9IJA LGUJ1JpJ

bLocc22iu s2212r9ucc o 2bGc1 qsuji2 o CO Eq Eu!u MO comuiurq Ou AIOfl2 qLg2 uq

ECr!U iou jow 2!wb2ou suq D!q /AL!pr oqA jspjuq bLolqqGq onttuqu MOL

rpc JGGLJ KG2GLAG 22CGUf MG !UqGpCGq CO 1W1 VdPG!U VI1'J BGLGL 1!W EWPGL2!C Eq

O ECOIJOUJ!C y1J22) OL jJGib M!W qr S'L1!J?t2!2 SIJq !UCGLbLGCf!OW Vt qiG BO1 O QOAGLUOL2 o

2GCP (IGqGL9! I�G2GL1G BIJ1C O ,4GM AOLJC) uq B'opGI.C ricvc (DGb'Ltwcut o CO1JJU1GLCG flflLG(I

101JU22011 uq 1OJ KL(1GGL OL qiGL GXCGJJGIJC S22!2CUCG Mq1 2tC2CCJ M0LJc JAG 9J20 CJ1JJC J1JJ

fOMIf bLG2COU VU!1GL VT-C I{0JU!CIC DAG J�'flUJCjG s39'L) 2CGUf 9uq MG!1 JAJJ9CG JAG qrnujc KGL2C!U

*/AG LcCGAGq PG1B1PI COWUJGUI2 OIJ G'L1!CL L1J2 LOW CU QL9p9'w 2W'1.C QLGGUpnW' C9L

EOO1UO(G

Page 32: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

no ed bluow moni 1aI3ini in s 1B1 aE Jrfguo i niE iibi3 3r11 no emor 1 i lEnT

IEx3l3rnImo3 3glEI no nith 15V 3iS zbsxq2 31B1 323131n! rn n1i lo nsol Isb3Lnmo3

.E,3woTxocJ laii-wol 03 enEol

31s1u3th3 oi n noi3&rnoInii 3n11 tioqi '1hi ol biiup3 3w e(nd OQQI ni inniH

1BLs1 0: b3id3bni 3W .3Idieeoq 3i3w e33sm1325 Ino iEri3 03 loiiq ;a:n3IBviup3 iths13 1eBH

.ernrniie e± ninisdo nil qI3rI 113rb ioi 13g13H n3IIA brIE nli3vsnlpA

o1 (OV—1Q1) bohq 3zEd 31b Ii b31331lB liig Ion ci cza IrIEd Isiol 01 inm1zu1bs 3I1TV

.c1s3' wsl s bisw±sd o biswiol bsvom ci nIi3uqrno3

bnis gnuJ3sHo3 ngsd ms1ev riscs5l lsisb&l 3± lo ziorrisvoD lo bisoa ni .EQQI IlsrisT es .sisb eldsisqmo gninlzilduq

.snibsb ol nusd 'bzsi1s esri sisnie c[risd niio1 Isdi sznisbivs ainisasq (QQl) sIlol4 13E1 niI

sr11 s(d bs3ubi 313W 2132.25 )IflEd bsswlbs-D114 (315n1 bs3ubrnq3l Ion) erloiisniqmo3 moc nil01

1B13(IEflhI lo sisile c)htsa .cSUcaI s3nsgs bns zSiinu3SC 1nI3rnrnsvo 2.U lo egnjiblorl iisnli lo inwoms

cs arnsnsq 311152 3± I33Exs icomis bsslqaib Hue qUO d bsbivib eisccs )InIsd brts noiisibsml3lnli

b3lwlbs nil nioil3ubsl snli 03 sub fli(1c Isvsl 4biswnwob s ci 513112 321IJ03 10 .A bns IA arisrO ni

.213225 *isd Isiol

issqqs Ion ob Isnil cisacs belsisl-lnBd lo csq 13(130 livs 51311 SiOfi SW e2ens1slqnno3 1o1"

-sqrnoz) niblon1 lnsd lo 1silffIs lnsdnon d bisnl 21822s ci onTO .eissn1 e3nlElsd lnsd lSflOiinI3vl103 no

sasnli xibneqqA 5(13 nil EA sldsT ni nwodc cA .(eslsilifls s3nEnfi 13U2(103 slqrnsxs lol) esiri

crtsol ci lsrborIA .(asiiinJ332 10 miol enD ni llsnl-erio lrfguoi £QQI 'd noillid 03 bsinuorns

.le*ism iEbno38a 3± 03111 SVIUO3S1 luonDiw bernqi3irlsq 10 bloc bus clnsd 1siz)lerrurIoo 'd beisniigho

need bsni anizol lsmemmo3 nil nioiUid €?2 (jessi is) bns ensol iefrnjano nil niolilid £8Z luods EQQI nil

.levswoni noi1us3 3m312x3 111kw bsisiqisinii ed iwm nisoE bloc no sisb 323(11' .enirism eirD iii bloc

Page 33: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

o driqA EOL 2!IIJ!19L 9LflWGUj2 2CG C°" T83 'J'1 DYL2 suq 2CJ1JG2iIJCL

JuqLGc LOJC !U rIJG COUJWCLCJ9J bbQL w9qc c juq ipi pujqu Lurniu ciur.sj o bLoAprou

ro occnbA bcs'j ucpG .r rpc u1rnIJcJ CLACC uqnQ yjjGL juu uo ccorw (!wboI.u)

1IU oAq uq GI4JGL J3 M flUflMtsG lpG 9T.rIwGu Gxbiu MpA puJcTIJ coiuunc

2p3'Lb b!cIcnb lu pLqc uqii ucjnqw CoUJU1LCi9J pJ wu? b9i °L rp cornjli.)v

cc;uj? LJC2G q ILOW pG GCL9J uz rJLAcAo;uji o psuc jGuqu 2(TG2

uq jçiucjc

JOL UJOLC IUOLW!OU OU L1!OU GMGGU 9 9Uq bcqpuu9ucc !U P1C!U 9IO BO?q

L° Gx'uJb1 pGL!GL 9uq HJIWBIJLGA J3 0 E!XJGL 9'Ij !CP9I T5

IJJ9IflC JOI4 Afl C9A9G OL CXbISU!IJ 1PGC I,C9U1LG2 O 1G qj o JI

ccouow?

jj.n wcqJoq OL coujbruu A9Jr7G-9qqGq 2O GuibO?Gq pt w9uA 2GUCG cot o qr

CflLLLJJ) 9!19pJG

99 OU 29JG o WOL9G IO91J2 p? COUJUJCLCI9I p9C2—flUqOflp1Gq?k 9 J9LG AOJflUJG 9CPA!—9LC UO

y 2IJ!UC9IJ (pn nuJwoMu) ILCt!OU O 211Cr OU 9LG 10 OfGL COUTLHGLC 1IJ(V VOLGOAGL'

31

Page 34: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

BOL O4 QOAGUJOLZ O 1J GGLJ JG7G1.AG 221GW'

EU!U Eq"q C' It JJJG OJt'Tt!0U Ot W WO1flJ VUJGL!CaU P1J1C!IJ 2)21GW' IAOtU JbGL'

FCOUOW!C bOI!CA I1J21!tfl1G llP!UtOU DC'

DVL!21 'jUG IA' Jq 2CP1G2!UCL jOW' J' JJJC b1jc1 p9uciu 2?2tGUJ' 1Jfl2CLIb1'

\bO.V. -34

COLL!U E' ccL}q' J' LG PffUJC2 2bGC! \ciu 'c3sy cor

CS1G2 DSAq' J' (uo' ): ' EGLfI2OU suq C0WbA'

bLcqcrou2 o qscOQ' -ot o\ottci1 ooxt'i (JGpLnT.)): —'poAq IOPU H' 9U J�flhJ1CJC DA!q F' J3' 2!G 9Uq BCLIOLUJ9'IJCC O PU1C!J j2IJ 1G

JSR' 13 (MJUIGL): —'

J1" JJJG LOJG O JSLG J9IJJ2 EU IJJG LGCGIJI ff2' pUJciU CL1212 cS1 \2JS

Vö'oT" 3Th—Q8'

o?q 'OpU H' 9lJq CGI.1JGL tA1S1JC' J3 fl'2' COWUJGLCIJ pLqciu: jLGU2 C?tCJG2 uq bojc)'

uq 2WJJ pwi2'

oLq O QOAGUJOL2 O IJJG GGLJ J�GGLAG 2)21GW '!1P!!!O OL 2W11 p112I1JG72C2

'CUI :3O2—3à'

BGLUU]CG BGU 2' 9'Uq fOMIJ C"- 2' iar' JJJC CLG CUILJCp' LOOE2 \b2 OU

flU!AGL2!IA O CP!CO bLG

PIIflJJ lu Ott q' Lcpc bb' cpco:

BGLGL' VIJGIJ W Uq HnWbPLG B' 1ô3' ySG211LGWGU1 uq GWC!GIJC) !22(1G2 !U COUJUJGLC!J

'ltt ot'(irrjA ): vj'COU KGUUGIP H' T3 r'O2!U Lonuq: BU1C2I qGcJ!uu WJG !U GCOUOW?t MOLI4G2 Cq W pnLt

1GLGLG1JC62

33

Page 35: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

j

LGUC1I HGU. 2 fl2 L9UCJJC2 uq UC!G2 O OLCIJ pujc: ' UC/A JOOJC !.Sit

bb J—J JQ KJ2 crt: JCCL J�L/G O K'22 C!A

o qic boti tLU2UJ!22!OU UJCCJJIJLLr %OY1\. otci1

KOWGL CPL!!U D miq J�0WGL D'qq if C'q! CUUG[ OL cLcqT sccrou2: 1U !U1CLbLCOU

1AOLJCPJ JbcL J- GGLJ JG2LiC UJC O BO2OU

OC uq KOGIJLCIJ E4C JJ JJJC Cb!tI cLflUcp: MCIIPCL OLLO/ACL UOL 1Guqc. pC

jbGL fl CowbLoJICL O WC CIJc

4OjJG' D!G1 E J4 LC OLCU U]C2 Ori-COiJJbCiiiJ fl2 P'Y !U rJJC fl LULJCC&, J/OLJU

iouz o opot jou cci /cm ]o (2bLTu):

ycrrjA opcr. uq Gqi JSUJ9 EOLG!U J]C CL;qi O fl coLboL!ou2: jpG wbjc-

cLCqi cuiucp V1JfI2CL!b CGLJ JC2CLAC UJC O 4GM AOLJC

r'o/1 CL 2 9uq bGL!2J9IJL 21ALO2 J3 JJJC JØ CLCqH 2OMqOMJJ: D!q JLG pUJ(2 CLGG

1opuou ouJq cb!I WPI J,{ff1JflcL!br CLJ J�G2GLAG B3"J o AGM IOLJC

QOCpC C4GL if cbo.t Tao3-:

cni wvico \M (2nwwcL):

YTLIOU LcqcLcJc j u pujc cbj LCf1JS1!OU MOL1C Jçc2cLCp !!q S1

flU!AGI3!Qt o Cpco bLG

opujc p.r '. t\! CT A! OL!1!CpC2' bb si—tt cpco:

Ux DCuu! r uq !c2cp9'u K! WPCLJX D f3 I12CL cot jrnqo bqcC uq p; LCJ onbrn

''" 2 TàT cowuJcu (ou o?q\QCuCL bbCL) vccorowc nntti

33

Page 36: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

044 TMAH3 3OATI133A A 2A 814A0J OiA EraaA Iwa

Q•Qr T3UOCR OrTaUOO aaoø .iAJlIMOi ao 08

Deer ocer er SIT1 .*.U • VO I PV

cOIIMJO3O 8)411A8 .8.U 3FIA -F 2TRAH3 23Y t TRAH3

ce-er IloFTAIcJ3MR3TMI JAIDVA4IR .a.u RO 3AAH2

OQ2r 082F 08Qr .313 WI • &3S 1T1I • • S

"ji o uC IieA

HI CQQr 9Qr

0 acer oeer

2is2A

(

01 93flZ1U Vii

*ib9ml9fffl lsi3nZniR 19r110 or

3M03111 T23A3TI.1MO1 )4I4A .2.U 20113RT C TRAH3 S2-F8QI ,2T322A OkIA 3M001.1I JATOT O 3ATh133R A CA

2

yd bJflsO smo3nI ICtol

d b9tsfleO

0 oeet

Or

o8er

ac:

ce-Caer .24AOJ C)iAB .eu RO 3OATI133 A CA CTII3JAVIUO TIOR3 .JCAB TRAH3

J DC

- es

I

I, i: I 1. •1I. I

aer aser. &r t8 .ATAC T33 hl 1O LM3 3vQ0 os J'r (1) Db.J • Q3TMtL3

.ATAO 031 4T l WT SflQMWI 1l TOT T31 .LMm A •

11t $ LJAVA 11 YJ __ ATAG 3t4T t (io .n.oq ymjoa o. VII03 s4nw) flao, — 3m Tns ci t1w3 n osvoc .M031 :m

Page 37: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

20

ivictvr Eb1EDIYtIE2' J&43.aO

b00flC1 Y2 V bECE1.liYOE OE JJ4E AVrflE YDOED BAciw. a JJ-E IW1flE JJ.4Y1 BWKC YDO 10 0b022 D0YE2JJC

420

ErbroAv1Et4i. i.i iwwctvr 1&$1-85CHYW. 10 E?tht0AYEItL 11.1 8YIXMO Y8 V bECEII1VeE 0

20

CHVW2 a—i i fl'2' BVWK2 A YrT fl'2' EII'IVIICIYT M.LEU%1EDIYIE24. MIIH rn.IEVB IME 1lEI.f DC

— lCIU*j NUrE CA1 P1I 5'VY*A 7 4f IILED atkb f011 fw3'i.i)' $ MT VT Ott-IV' 2V.L 4& EaVAWEM1'

80

Jego

Y22EJ2 J22-3 bbODflC.L lael-a5CHYW. I Y2 V bECEII1V0E Ob ii.cyticrvr MYEDYW CI-fy.L 9 YC V bEdCEI&LY(3E 01 ll0YIVYV Cb022 DOYE2JJC

CHYW2 1-9 YD1fl2J.D AC flYD1fl21ED EY2flbE2 OE fl'C BWK Y22E.L2

30

1030,

L

32 6L 691

bst G3t

ic at IEM AOCa: toic' Up EW€ at ooo • lc tw.c VPC coED bEVTW TOYta at OO?lc • lc flT YLVEML at

fluqin218q40

20I

ao aao

kIIC-5 qn6q4

s: tEW at oOPq o talcMC CVtLWVL IE.LN 5ITC.$ Ioi!SI I ClL YiI • Ll 1. —

Jaeo0 80 aeo iea

at IEM ACat 'Alc tEtEMt

•YUI toy rIcCta.€D att rosjeei ee aee aeo aa

V

I

8

I qn2i6q.

50

541893 -83BA 0EEICE 0 0EICV BWKC rocv.LE0 v Ji4E 'reCI4VdI 9 bE1CEI&LYCE CE fl2 BWK V2CEJ2 HEED

Page 38: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

..( . *0PWYLED (*50 OZC aL Ov1OV

I

.LHEE-AEV OAIIIO VAEVQE2 18Q.-3CHYW. 2 OOM.LH 4YJ18 III fl? EY1 IIIV1PICM Y22Ei25

aa: nrVdiLwEsEn u IEUnLCI. • ri.TE *0 DECb4ib0 vsE)IcEz (u4 vu .w *0 wv)Jv*,ra cc • 5EWE tw *0 w7 WVM U*. 4 SIaTCES i*s vi DI bI•rs av.a *0 ro* (L CsE• ST b(f T— *0 bvdL—IPE EIAW1Z

80

VID EOflIbYdEIlf iet—es -IdEV CYbLLVI O tu.iviicivr M1EEDIVIE2 VEI brVli.CHYW. 11 Eyr Cvbwvr O BWK2 Y2 V bEICEI&LVOE O

1820 4880 480a • P -

S

3

4-

2

fl3 HEY! CYbLLV IIE.L brvlJ. VI.ID EOflIbY$EIIJ? 18tt45CIW. 14 2ECJ.Ot Eyr cybwvr V2 V bEC&IJ.VCE O .LO.LVI

2

bEUCB4.LYOE OL OO22 DCVE2JJC bBODnCJ? 1N.—aOCHVW. 15 Av1flE YDDED J.O O22 OOYEJJC bODflCi V2 V

CHVI12 15—14 J.HE fl2 EIVVVCIVr MIEbWEDIVUA 2EC.LO4.

a0 1890 4880

4820 4880 J80 4880 4880a

4

2

1890 4880

U!(2+C I

BU)(2

EY*rOAPEI&L5 14.-5CHYW. 13 EY4brOAYEIPIJ. V2 V bEUCEIIJ.VCE Ob lolYr fl2.

ior: arvi&*0 (*. vs e.w *0 *5w?IA (SIOI *5*5$ U IED1JIUS • 1ES *0 &50i*l 4 I. 50'1 r*s vu T*L OQIED bITE Y& *0 FG*4, iTi *0

4820 1880 180 4890 1880P I P

0•03Pb6tX6t

U

1820 1880 J80 4880 4880

4

IiU9LiCI u6Lw6q

Page 39: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

rjc c0w0a011 .5t2l .0Cll tSIGUC23A w0iC1 tcU 0WUIC t0Qfl1 :slI1ot

OJ iLW2

VAd' o

AJGLJ

2'04'8

42

5380

33

i'494

39

801

'19

510

20

33 33

1

JJ'iOO

4•3

08J 31 55 51 50 42 —54 —33 584000 24 3 34 3'S 51 —55 2 421098 30 58 58 44 38 So 301399 39 38 '18 23 83 —2 2 404891 5•9 8 fl 5 30 J•3 a so1882 99 23 8'S 18 440 14 28 294082 2'l 32 41 2'8 88 55 34 241084 2'S '12 48 24 a'3 —5'Q 5 29

AC9I 20 N!F20—

100 W220 NI'—

520 'I2400 W—

I SW2520 N!I'—

JO SW

24 SW—•

flu9qn2Cq qin2Gq4 59U2VU

QA6L 2-0 SW

BGd!UU IU G!I V226L 2!!6 CI22

j9PIG S fl'2' 9UK V22G2 PA V2 2!G CI2.

200tC0 00Ji 8C1.0 01 C0A'u013

v''zGQ iot 'y'ir (b'ci ,cn,cA gnol noti. j I.cwcu( Luuâa uQ IIønQ!IA) ug,ur.CQU.0lICIIIAcusoou' couoo;iogl$ I0L;IU ?ua0uJ2iIC oOt, our

(2 9!I)EUC 0! 1883

BSIUCG2 tonL2!uqud

3042 4154 433 523 539 123 3284 5140

1883 212 120 580 I8 452 40 2'38 240

4005 3'49 88 129 —182 —245 —808 592 —454

1001 2'lO 531 4'24 —512 —'182 —923 402 —5'99

4800 202 915 325 3'aO —S'54 —549 595 538

ACSL V22 1C91J2 Vfl6!2 rOU2 226j2 1O(J2 O9U2

c9b!!IGqMCII-

C9b!I!GQ.Iyq6dfl$lA

Cb!t3IqfluqGL-

3SUC2

flP(G fl'2 B9U V22S2 guq roua pA cbI qGdnScA cI2.

VAGL9aG VUUflSI bGLCGUSU6 L0M4 G2,L9PIG2 4—5

Page 40: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

xibneqqA rliwoiD )lnB8 To S1U2E9M tsinem5lqqu2

-b 5Iom s iot hñqIif ai isrb Lsrizzrn aniir1o3 xibnqq airlT bns a31d fI' .l3qzq gthbeq rfi 10 nibnz3brw blisi &b rti oi bT11 f1 1f3uIW ni bio ni bmiI ,xs

: FA&dsT

*t9)1SM nsoi Ishraubnl bns Izbismmo3 .2.U to sisri2 ns8 npisioR

seer egr

reer oeer eaer aer ae; aaer eer iaer cer r o to so ro

tic ci m avr io8 aa sr ea csa aaa sra cai zs8unbbA 2.U ot ansoi 83

eE 08E 80i ar SD 85i ¶Th 18i P.8 88.i .8I 9r S0 18E an6oJ ns8 b5nwO-2.U

eas Oat 88E teE I F 08 8 ID QD r0 58E Pat eoIian0

os is ss ss is SE SE is at at ar at Q5 r eiofl10

Eat E8E tat eat P4t 8*E SE 185 as eos ear cr on 88 ton6oJ ns8 brtwO-n0ieo Sir 8t i.it air air ar sr air tOt 88 88 t2 El E sbnsQAbn6a3bni6 ai ai ei ei oi oa sa se oa ii ii ec 8Z SE iibidu

er or rr iar oar sat ar air ae ec 08 ai it os ioitObewni3 885 r8S S8S 5cs i.as ses ais sen er ocr 8 ic ei it nsdnoI1 2.U no vlns8 n0iioR omisI3 iortzO tt 80E ¶OE 885 885 8S 55 ¶IS r8r Bit 811 EQ t S2 VInnO4 2.U no i,isIO zns8 niPoq5R I8 : as as as as as as as is 81 t 81 55 15 ns8 2.U Ic ertons,8 niioR yC zinEdnoI4 eu no misI3

. r r r r I t i r 1 1 1 5 1 hsibi2du2 bnE .t3nepA ,wnsiE d rooJ eoi1ttO

9 81 i i ii ai ii at SE s as is at (°) eisil2 nQiOR :Qm9M

OS @1 er er 81 81 81 11 ci it Ot 8 a,nAbnosrbi8 a a a a a a ¶ nibiaøue

ES 55 15 15 05 81 at ci Sr 01 8 8

nin Ii1i00 wit mw nodibno3 Ic cflooeP eI tstI OnoIisti10nI fl31t0O 110 SOubni csl*12 b3IunLJ 311131 0fl1 (bold U 1033U1 011011110 10 330 OlnuomI 301100

iinuo3 OsloItVlImU3 flQIIulLldClI

.UuWbZOu0 bIlL cotos Zwnldd U0u1(1

ciflud nQlnlot Ic 0103113Q4 ino zsn3nmd 10 idnIdnon no ldfllo&3 100db notn000ld 10illdubni b 10 vno wo IIIJU OW conIc o rn Dn131111103 niu flQl310l G VTh113 IOWIOIIO y0 Ct .wieo 08 .noildcd cot aou , cnt z noinoornq 31001110 e1I *111 pumuuu 03111 zotnJZ beIlnU 31110

0110 IC bco 3111 mail o Domo g poiboel lot lgwQiI nJI nrte SO 11113 00 DI nOImLIlE 011111 10 edt bell atoM zinsonon LU no zinsz

eioy *il Ic wisO 'iziP ic'ioe rtje2 Im1 .iO .3uoa

Page 41: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

O00t 0010001 COtU0t0 tDIC' 100 OGGt* 5010.1 3,01 0 O

tfltO0u$4 0t10)0tO 0102100100100 1110100 ousot ms

..C'111'C ucU.ulIt ccw0 010010 0 01IIU zus0 moor

Ew*10 ioci OflIAII0012 10050.0 1110C1 zueq uosir

.00.110 1010IM2 Its u 3IIOJZ O0U01 U 010500*000 t50150101 11* 01tC5010$ UC.00$ U 01J5IU U0*IltLu 330012 I5 10 30tflZl014'

(8'S)

2885 58212 — iO1.25 3•555'9(233) (i25) (81)

1881 59299 35213 11193 31419122) '153) 188)

2860 51.1.32 35041 3'885 30121J32) (38J 91.)

1888 59111 30032 32883 53l2'4(35) (523) 190)

4888 541.82 52012 32113 591.15(13'S) (493) (10)

1891 53530 52200 33321 54921(33) (se3) (28)

1892 54812 54181 51.259 5311.3(122) (482) (22)

1882 18982 55902 5311.2 51001(134) (222) (12)

1891 18001 50322 50843 19939(0'2) (14,5) (32)

4883 49591 41815 49219 12852(O)

2885 44958 — 1931.3 —

(9.3)

189J 13895 — 12453 —(i1.)

1890 15888 — 13203 —(11)

1818 1481 9 — 44824 —('2)

181.9 10252 — 40211. —

('2)

1811 8512 — 8303 —(5'2)

161.2 8335 — 9221 —(43D)

181.2 1299 — g2g'l —(gi)

4814 1312 — . 19S5 —

(2s)181.3 2954 — 2810 —

(21)

1813 2121 — 9028 —(11)

181.1 2022 — 2203 —

ou nu9q(noIsq 890O iuoc4 ic-s ouoli010 rouoflUqGtL0b0UIU CI

alI—91I,U 9$JOI 'CIIAI!00

yg(n2oq (o

C0LLGCPU (01 Q((—9913UC9 2W"i VCUA!I!62 Z C0LLGC!UO (CL 0U2P010 EOLGIaU rouqiue.

cowbsL!ua 4B 692flLS2i9Dl6v

Page 42: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

•u0 wi 0fl105L2 QVA

2Ott G0011I 90.Q 01 eomIuotz 100 DIC

y2291 eto'jp ss 53 451 519 434

6CflL!l!62W22612 1O4 19€ 508 552

COW WGLCISI 103U2\'2S 495 4.4 122 442

109U2\V22612 211 205 280 2.8

1880 1881 1335 4383.

2CC$ D1C

y22G2 O bLOPIGW lUIifl!OU (z 8!i) 345 258 408 584

flWP6L 01 bLOPIGW IU2RnIOU2 1Q45 4042 482

6V1W CU EU (e) V42 ,•34 J3Q J26LfIW CLI 22Gj (e) 49 23 83 .153

1880 1881 .1885 4383.

19P16 V4 20flLC62 01 DGPL 04 C0Lbots!oue

fl 9uqUO jLGU2

.L9PIS V2 3U( bSL4OLWSUCS

200tC O20L$I 020I.A$ B0010 01 COu03

•9!204 Out 2110010 o ¶2010001200 IILliO COWWOLCIOI 25002—-uOl 100 utnotLO sli0oA;

COUIWOLCIII *13ius0 101020010 MIWGII I0IlI2$ ¶1' 0K10000 W OIJIUO*1J Pill 2fICZSIIII II3CPCU 01 P10200102 lIt 20022010 jO 01001

.001111 IwO' U12

4883 528 - 93 23

4885 515 29 22

1884 508 2 92

1800 549 40 80

4383 554 55 S

At W0lQ1UO COWb9LI1GZ

V1l!l!Sl 01 99U1Cy22012 01 4OUP9U

C0WW61C131 99111(24

o9U2 oL!ausIGq pA

2GCflU1!Sq COU2U$L

20l OL 9LpCIbSi6qL.IUQfl2IL!91 09u2

COWWSLC!91 SUQ

VqqUIOuSi O44—B3ISUCG jJG6 U-I6sj6q y226j2,.13P16 Y3

13019 V9 99UC 22G yOc9iOU 9i02

2I. 3011321 00tU0tl 01 lilt 0000111 I0004 202200 1M3

jL96 cu 5f 548 552 552

011191 109U2 121 13a .140 J3B9U1( 109112 .19•3 J9 19 .1e5

28 28 28 22

90Uq2 30 38e 409 448

1880 438.1 4885 1883.

Page 43: sia - National Bureau of Economic Research · oi 343 .mono33 A w b3llqmi ,i3ih 31s42-3,ilBm al3dmun lid o 3r1uo33E iol 343 3viiBI3l riiwo 10 IEI3fIEfIfi .noiiib3m133ni bs5bnI w bnlI

A—rA aI13 *atBeaA lnsS o alues9M bst2ujbsnU nA .2v bBiau(bA nA

atsaaA'sibemie1nt IGi3f1Ai to sgIns3,eq £ aA rAtir1 ce-aar ,sQs1evA uvoM issY-eeitll

oger oer over oaer

oeer 089F oaer

o eoni Imotninon 10 otrEl 1J o noihoiq iu ev 3ni i& 30uJnIO IZuIbi jni rn b .1 bodm .nototiIEç emi Ie1nocd .t-311ft

bni ano3 Ic IcnhtG au rcma 10 108 evR Iie10 .X1 uoe 4 10

fb9iaujbA t-3I4

uboiS 3iIasmoO aaoiO Isnimol4 o 9gfl9319q z Aisti3 e—ier

tbuibA r-iv 08

03

- I - J_ I - - —