Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX®...

26
Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives Russell Rhoads, CFA

Transcript of Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX®...

Page 1: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives

Russell Rhoads, CFA

Page 2: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

2

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a personmust receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available fromyour broker or from The Options Clearing Corporation at www.theocc.com. Futures trading is notsuitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. The risk of loss in futures can be substantial. Youshould, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of yourcircumstances and financial resources. For additional information regarding futures trading risks, seethe Risk Disclosure Statement set forth in CFTC Regulation §1.55(b). The information in thesematerials are provided for general education and information purposes only. No statement within thesematerials should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or future or to provideinvestment advice. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics or other technicaldata in these materials is available by contacting Cboe at www.cboe.com/Contact. Any strategiesdiscussed, including examples using actual securities and price data, are strictly for illustrative andeducational purposes only and are not to be construed as an endorsement, recommendation orsolicitation to buy or sell securities. In order to simplify the computations, commissions, fees, margininterest and taxes have not been included in the examples used in these materials. These costs willimpact the outcome of all stock and options transactions and must be considered prior to entering intoany transactions. Investors should consult their tax advisor as to how taxes affect the outcome ofcontemplated options transactions. Cboe®, Cboe Volatility Index®, and VIX® are registeredtrademarks, and Cboe Global MarketsSM is a service mark of Cboe Exchange, Inc. S&P 500® is aregistered trademark of Standard and Poor's Financial Services, LLC, used under license. Financialproducts based on S&P indices are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Standard & Poor’s,and neither Standard &Poor’s nor Cboe make any representation regarding the advisability of investingin such products. All other trademarks and service marks are the property of their respective owners.

© 2018 Cboe Exchange, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Disclosure

Page 3: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

3

Cboe Volatility Index Primer VIX FuturesVIX Options Summary / Contact

Short Volatility Trading

Page 4: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

4

The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500® Index option prices The VIX Methodology is considered the industry standard for a consistent measure of implied volatility Historically the VIX Index has displayed an inverse relationship with the S&P 500 which resulted in it being referred to as “the fear index”

Cboe Volatility Index

Page 5: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

5Data Sources: Cboe Global Markets and Bloomberg

Cboe Volatility Index

8

11

14

17

20

23

26

29

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17

VIX vs. S&P 500 Daily 2017

S&P 500

VIX

Page 6: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2600

2650

2700

2750

2800

2850

2900

1/2/18 1/4/18 1/8/18 1/10/18 1/12/18 1/17/18 1/19/18 1/23/18 1/25/18 1/29/18 1/31/18

VIX vs. SPX January 2018

Data Sources: Cboe Global Markets and Bloomberg

Cboe Volatility Index

S&P 500

VIX

Page 7: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

7

8

14

20

26

32

38

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

1/2/18 1/5/18 1/10/18 1/16/18 1/19/18 1/24/18 1/29/18 2/1/18 2/6/18 2/9/18 2/14/18 2/20/18 2/23/18 2/28/18

VIX vs. SPX 2018 January and February 2018

Data Sources: Cboe Global Markets and Bloomberg

Cboe Volatility Index

S&P 500

VIX

Page 8: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

8

Contract Specifications The value of a VIX futures contracts is $1000 times the quoted valueMinimum ticks are 0.05 ($50) for single contract trades and 0.01 ($10) for calendar spreadsThere are both standard and weekly contracts available for trading – currently the majority of volume is concentrated in the standard expirationsTrading is available almost 24 / 5 with small breaks after the end of regular US trading hours Expirations typically occur on Wednesdays and the futures are AM settled

VIX Futures

Page 9: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

9

Pricing Unlike many financial futures markets there is not a ‘fair value’ relationship between VIX and the associated futures contractsAt times VIX futures are priced at a premium to spot VIX and at times VIX futures will be priced at a discount The pricing relationship is often referred to as being in contango or backwardation

VIX Futures

Page 10: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

10

Contango / Backwardation

VIX Futures

VIX Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9

Page 11: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

11

Backwardation – Impact of Brexit Referendum

Data Source: Cboe Global Markets

VIX Futures

16

18

20

22

24

26

VIX Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17

Friday 6:30 AM Chicago

Thursday US Closing

Page 12: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

12

Standard Futures Daily Pricing

Data Source: www.Cboe.com

VIX Futures

12

16

20

24

28

9/16 10/7 10/28 11/18 12/10

Dec 2015 VIX Future

Spot VIX

Dec Front Month

Page 13: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

13

Trading Example –August 14, 2014

VIX @ 12.42Sell 1 August VIX @ 12.95

August 19, 2014VIX @ 12.21

Buy 1 August VIX @ 12.20

Profit = 0.75

Trades into Expiration

Page 14: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

14

Trading Example –August 14, 2014

VIX @ 12.42Sell 1 August VIX @ 12.95

Buy 1 September VIX @ 13.90

August 19, 2014Buy 1 August VIX @ 12.20 (+0.75)

Sell 1 September VIX @ 13.50 (-0.40)

Profit = +0.35

Trades into Expiration

Page 15: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

15

Trading Example –January 10, 2018

VIX @ 9.82Sell 1 January VIX @ 10.55

January 16, 2018VIX @ 11.66

Buy 1 January VIX @ 11.75

Loss = -1.20

Trades into Expiration

Page 16: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

16

Trading Example –January 10, 2018

VIX @ 9.82Sell 1 January VIX @ 10.55

Buy 1 February VIX @ 11.55

January 16, 2018VIX @ 11.66

Buy 1 January VIX @ 11.75Sell 1 February VIX @ 12.10

Loss = -0.65

Trades into Expiration

Page 17: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

17

VIX Index options are cash settled contracts that share an expiration date with a VIX FutureTraders are better served using VIX Futures as the best underlying pricing vehicle for valuing VIX Options This means that VIX Option positions are best priced off futures but settle in the spot index The multiplier for VIX Options is $100 and trading is available during both European and US market hours

VIX Options

Page 18: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

18

Friday August 12, 2016 – VIX at 11.50 / Sep VIX Futures at 15.00

VIX Options

Call Bid Call Ask Strike Put Bid Put Ask4.80 5.10 10 0.00 0.053.90 4.10 11 0.00 0.053.10 3.30 12 0.15 0.202.40 2.55 13 0.45 0.551.90 2.05 14 1.00 1.051.55 1.65 15 1.60 1.701.35 1.45 16 2.35 2.451.10 1.25 17 3.10 3.30

Page 19: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

19

VIX at 11.50 / September VIX at 15.00

Believe VIX Will Remain LowConsidering Buying a VIX Put

VIX Options

Put Strike Ask Price Break Even P/L VIX @ 11.5012 0.20 11.80 0.3013 0.55 12.45 0.9514 1.05 12.95 1.4515 1.70 13.30 1.8016 2.45 13.55 2.0517 3.30 13.70 2.20

Page 20: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

20

Buy 1 VIX Sep 14 Put at 1.05

VIX Options

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

VIX @11.50

VXU6 @15.00

Page 21: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

21

Bear Call Spread #1

March 23, 2016VIX @ 14.75

May VIX @ 19.05

Sell 1 May VIX 25 Call at 1.25Buy 1 VIX May 28 Call at 0.85

Net Credit = 0.40

VIX Options

Page 22: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

22

Bear Call Spread #1

VIX Options

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

16 19 22 25 28

VIX @14.75

VXK6 @19.05

Page 23: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

23

Bear Call Spread #2

March 23, 2016VIX @ 14.75

May VIX @ 19.05

Sell 1 May VIX 22 Call at 1.70Buy 1 VIX May 30 Call at 0.70

Net Credit = 1.00

VIX Options

Page 24: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

24

Bear Call Spread #2

VIX Options

-9.00

-6.00

-3.00

0.00

3.00

6.00

14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

VIX @14.75

VXK6 @19.05

Page 25: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

25

Both VIX futures and options offer opportunities to short market volatility Recent market action reminds us to have risk controls in place when taking a short volatility position

Short Volatility Trading

Page 26: Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives · The Cboe Volatility Index® or the VIX® Index is a consistent 30 day measure of implied volatility as indicated by S&P 500®

26

Linkswww.Cboe.com/vixwww.cfe.Cboe.com

www.Cboe.com/blogs

Contact InformationRussell Rhoads, [email protected]

Twitter - @RussellRhoads

Useful Links / Contact Information