Short-term forecasting of national PV production
Transcript of Short-term forecasting of national PV production
Short-term
forecasting of
national PV
production Challenges regarding
the (partial) solar eclipse
over north/western Europe
03-20-2015
Outline
we are enercast
Solar eclipse
EU/German renewables and forecasting
Solar eclipse in the forecast
Conclusion & lessons learned
enercast GmbH
‣ Online forecast for renewable
energy sources since 2009
‣ Team with a broad range of
backgrounds
‣ Cooperation with:
Fraunhofer-IWES, University of Kassel
Solar Eclipse 2015-03-20
‣ "SE2015Mar20T" by A. T. Sinclair - NASA (http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle2001.html). Licensed under Public
Domain via Wikimedia Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SE2015Mar20T.gif#/media/File:SE2015Mar20T.gif
Example Values for
Berlin, Germany
(51.51°N, 13.38°E)
Obscuration: 72%
(80-65%)
1st Contact 9:37am
Mid eclipse 10:46am
End: 11:57am
NWP Simulation of the solar eclipse
Köhler, Carmen; Steiner, Andreas; Lee, Daniel; Thieler, Jens; Ritter, Bodo (2014): Case studies of the effects of a
total solar eclipse on weather with varying degrees of cloud cover using a local numerical weather predition model.
Deutscher Wetterdienst/Seewetteramt, Offenbach/Hamburg
PV production ‣ Installed PV Capacity in Germany: 36 GW
‣ (Europe: 90GW)
‣ Expected production on a clear day:
(e.g. 03-20-2014: was 23GW peak)
Gradient: -400MW/min +700MW/min
Area forecast (germany) distribution of energy production
NWP weather data
DB of installed facilities
statistical angle distribution
production per TSO
his
toric
al p
rod
uctio
n
final power forecast
Forecasting scheme/production ‣ Forecast cycle usually 4x/day, most important is dayahead –
but some require up to one week ahead
‣ Reduction applied for the 03-20-2015 based on NWP
simulation
‣ During the final week before the SE:
‣ Special model runs by DWD since day-3
‣ Increased cycles
‣ Timeshift checks/adjustments
‣ Manual inspection of all NWPs used, telcos...
Actual situation at 2015-03-20
High fog, till noon, in western Germany
Reduced temperature (avg -2.2°C)
No clouds in S/E
„Sonnenfinsternis 2015 Einstrahlung“ von Carsten Pietzsch –
licensed CC0 via Wikimedia Commons -
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sonnenfinsternis_2015_
Einstrahlung.svg
Situation for whole germany (by TransnetBW)
What really happened ‣ Managing this event on the world's largest interconnected grid is an
unprecedented challenge for European TSOs. Solar eclipses have
happened before but with the increase of installed photovoltaic energy
generation, the risk of an incident could be serious without appropriate
countermeasures [...] — ENTSO-E Press release from 2015-02-23
Nothing!?
- 8GW of primary control reserve
power (12% used)
- Net frequency variance <0.05Hz
- Marked prices ‚moderate‘
- Some aluminium production was
shut down Mathias Dalheimer: monitored net frequency (Karlsruhe, Germany)
http://gonium.net/blog/2015/03/26/sonnenfinsternis-stromnetz/
Conclusion
‣ Special, rare event for Enercast
‣ Everyone was well-prepared
‣ “Nothing to report”
‣ Well planned event, next one could be unforeseen?
‣ (fog, cold front and more renewables … )
Thanks for listening,
more information can be
found at:
‣ http://www.enercast.de
Forecast vs. actual – by TSO
Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Rafael Fritz, Dominik Jost: Auswertung des Effekts der Sonnenfinsternis vom 20.03.2015 auf das
deutsche Energieversorgungssystem, Fraunhofer IWES, Institutsteil Energiesystemtechnik, Kassel, 2015
19th 03/06 run, actual (11:30)
DWD, Sat24
Control reserve power @ 03-20-2015
‣ Secondary control power: 4.3GW (+110%)
‣ Tertiary control power: 3GW/-3.7GW (+15%)
Datenbank: Ausrichtung PV
‣ Eigene Datenbank der
statistischen
Winkelverteilung.
‣ Clusterbildung nach
Nennleistung der Anlage.
‣ Geografische
Besonderheiten werden
brücksichtigt.