Short form Analytic ReporT
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SHORT FORM ANALYTIC REPORTAndy Analyst
Intelligence Analyst, US Africa Command - Djibouti
14 January 2013Djibouti
Source: http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-PT033_drones_G_20110920220004.jpg
DJIBOUTI UNLIKELY TO SUSPEND US DRONE FLIGHTS FROM CAMP LEMONNIER
Sources: Camp -- http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpgMap -- https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/dj.html
Executive Summary
No pressure from Djiboutian government
U.S. military presence helps Djibouti’s economy
Regional partners support drone operations UNCLASSIFIED
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A Predator drone crash site in Djibouti (May 2011)Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg
Estimate:Djibouti unlikely to suspend drone flights
Background
Camp Lemonnier provides local economic boost
USD38 million lease – 3% of GDP
USD1.4 billion base expansion
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Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg
Camp Lemonnier - Djibouti
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg
Discussion
Five crashes: January 2011 – February 2012
No public pressure to suspend operations
Djiboutian government continues to support Camp Lemonnier
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Source: http://dronewarsuk.wordpress.com/drone-crash-database/
No pressure from Djiboutian government
Date Drone Type Cause
21 Feb 2012USAF MQ-1B Predator Mechanical failure
17 May 2011USAF MQ-1B Predator Undetermined
7 May 2011USAF MQ-1B Predator Undetermined
15 Mar 2011USAF MQ-1B Predator Undetermined
14 Jan 2011USAF MQ-1B Predator Undetermined
Drone Crashes in Djibouti
Discussion
Camp Lemonnier provides local economic boost
USD38 million lease – 3% of GDP
USD1.4 billion base expansion
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Djibouti’s 2011 GDP was USD 1.1 billion. Source: Jane’s Information Group. (2012). North Africa Security Assessment. Jane’s Sentinel, 31.
U.S. Military Presence Helps Djibouti’s Economy
Discussion
Statements of support from: Yemen
Ongoing drone operations from: Ethiopia
Lessens pressure on Djiboutian government
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Regional partners support drone operations
Source: http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BC588A_DRONE_D_20110920201505.jpg
Somalia
Seychelles
Comments
No civilian deaths in previous crashes
February 2012 crash was near residential area
Civilian deaths may lead Djibouti to request: Investigation Plan to address
crashes
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Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg
Civilian deaths may increase pressure
Source: Guardian UK
Analytic Confidence
Analytic confidence = High
Source reliability = High (40.65)
Analyst’s Expertise = High
Subject Complexity = Medium
Time Available = AdequateUNCLASSIFIED
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Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Questions?
Andy Analyst
US Africa Command – Djibouti
Email: [email protected]
Analyst Contact Information
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Full report available by request.
References
http://dronewarsuk.wordpress.com/drone-crash-database/ http://djiboutitoday.com/m_news.php?ID=181 Jane’s Information Group. (2012). North Africa Security Assessment. Jane’s
Sentinel, 31. http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-10-25/world/35499227_1_drone-
wars-drone-operations-military-base http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-09-29/world/35497110_1_drone-s
trikes-drone-attacks-aqap http://allafrica.com/stories/201202270467.html http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-10-27/world/35276956_1_drone-fl
ights-drone-operations-reaper-drones
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