SHIPPING SECTOR OVERVIEW - PACRA Presentation… · through Gawadar port. Pakistan National...
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SHIPPING SECTOR OVERVIEW May 2018 Global Industry Snapshot Capacity Growth Trend Global Seaborne trade Suppliers Freight Rates Outlook
Transcript of SHIPPING SECTOR OVERVIEW - PACRA Presentation… · through Gawadar port. Pakistan National...
SHIPPING
SECTOR OVERVIEW
May 2018
Global Industry Snapshot
Capacity
Growth Trend
Global Seaborne trade
Suppliers
Freight Rates
Outlook
Merchandise trade has high correlation with GDP
Seaborne trade | ~90% of world is carried by the international shipping industry
In recent years, new ships joining the world fleet are fuel efficient and larger in size
Lately, world GDP growth has tapper down owing to slow down in world largest
economies mainly China and Europe. Hence, global shipping companies’ freights
have come under pressure. World’s vessels are decreasing in number and increasing
in size.
Re-balancing of China’s economy may significantly reshape the maritime transport
landscape and alter shipping and seaborne trade pattern, going forward.
China’s initiative of One Belt, One Road aims to establish new trade routes.
Pakistan’s merchandise trade has shown a rising trend increasing by ~8% in 2017
CPEC under China’s One Belt, One Road is expected to increase seaborne trade
through Gawadar port.
Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) is the only shipping company
operating with flag as a national flag carrier.
Maintaining a fleet of 9 vessels (4 oil tankers and 5 dry bulk carriers), PNSC
operates on a competitive basis. PNSC is in the process of acquiring two more
vessels.
PNSC’s business margins have dropped owing to drop in RFO shipments
PNSC had 14% share of total Pakistan’s Seaborne trade in 2017
INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT
GLO
BAL
PAKIS
TAN
Shipping Industry | DWT Capacity
World 2010 2016
# of Vessels 103,392 93,167
Avg. Vessel Life 22.5yrs. 20.6yrs.
PNSC
# of Vessels 9 9Avg. Vessel Life 15yrs. 13yrs.
15% 16% 15% 16% 15%
13% 13% 13% 14% 13%
30% 28% 28% 28% 29%
42% 43% 44% 43% 43%
1,532 1,625
1,694 1,749
1,806
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16
Mil
lion
DW
T
Seg
men
t S
hare
World Fleet | Capacity | Segment Share
Other Cargo Container Oil Tanker
Dry Bulk Total (mln dwt) -RHS
0
5
10
15
20
25
84,000
88,000
92,000
96,000
100,000
104,000
CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16
Avg. A
ge
| Yea
rs
Num
ber
World Fleet | Size and Avg. Life
Number of Vessels (LHS) All Ships Dry Bulk Oil Tankers
Shipping Industry | Growth Trends
30% 31% 32% 29% 31%
31% 30% 29% 29% 30%
39% 40% 40% 41% 39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16
World | Seaborne Trade Volume | Segment Share
Dry Bulk Oil & Gas Others
Crude Oil, 18%
Petroleum
Products, 12%
Gas &
Chemicals, 6%
Containerized,
15%
Iron Ore, 14%
Coal, 10%
Grain, 5%
Others, 20%
SEABORNE TRADE -2016 | TYPES OF GOODS
Global Seaborne Trade | Trend
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16
Global Seaborne Trade | Trend
Dry Bulk Oil Tankers
Others - Dry Cargo Growth in Seaborne Trade
Shipping Industry | Suppliers
Sr. # Shipping Companies Country Market Share* Vessels
1 Maersk Line A/S Denmark 16.0% 621
2 Mediterranean Shipping Company South Africa 14.6% 469
3 CMA CGM South Africa 11.1% 441
4 Coso Container Lines Limited USA 8.0% 277
5 Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft Germany 5.2% 180
6 Evergreen Marine Corporation Limited Taiwan 5.0% 186
7 Orient Overseas Container Line Japan 3.3% 107
8 Hamburg Sud Germany 3.0% 116
9 Yang Ming Korea 2.9% 100
10 United Arab Shipping Company UAE 2.7% 56
Total 71.8% 2,553
*Market share based on TEU: Twenty Feet Equivalent Units | 1 TEU = 12-14 DWT
16%
13%
9%
7%5%
50%
Top 5 Countries | Market Share | DWT -2016
Greece
Japan
China
Germany
Singapore
Others
Shipping Industry | Freight Rates | Dry Bulk
Baltic Dry Index | 6years Movement
• Baltic Dry index has continued its slow but upward trend
Shipping Industry | Freight Rates | Dry Bulk
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
May
-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-16
May
-16
Jun-1
6
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Jun-1
7
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
Baltic Dry Index |Trend
FY17
FY18
FY15
Shipping Industry | Freight Rates | Liquid
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-16
May
-16
Jun-1
6
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Jun-1
7
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
AFRA Index | Movement
FY16FY18
FY17
Shipping Industry | Outlook
DISCLAIMERPACRA has used due care in preparation of this document. Our information has been obtained from
sources we consider to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. The information
in this document may be copied or otherwise reproduced, in whole or in part, provided the source is
duly acknowledged. The presentation should not be relied upon as professional advice.
Analysts Muhammad Hassan
Senior Financial Analyst
Amara Gondal
Senior Manager Ratings
Contact Number: +92 42 3586 9504
Bibliography• Review of Maritime Transport 2016• Pakistan National Shipping Corporation• http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS/countries?display=graph• http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/WLD/Year/2007/TradeFlow/I
mport/Partner/WLD/Product/All-Groups• http://www.ics-shipping.org/shipping-facts/shipping-and-world-trade• https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND• https://www.quandl.com/data/LLOYDS/BDI-Baltic-Dry-Index
