Shipping LPG - · PDF file13/06/2017 · Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg |...

Shipping – LPG

https://shippinganalyst.wordpress.com/

14 June 2017


Table of Contents

Market Balance

Company Overview

Company Specifics

Market Balance

Table of Contents

| 4Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Clarksons

Market Balance

Supply Supply/Demand

Econometric relationship between utilization and rates

Summary

Supply/Demand

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Net

fleet

gro

wth

(%

)

'000 c

bm

Fleet development

Scrapping Other Deliveries Contracting Net fleet growth (%) 50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Utiliz

ation

Dem

and/S

upply

gro

wth

(y/y

)

Base case

Supply Demand Utilization

83%85%

95% 97%

77%

73%

77%

81%84%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

-

5

10

15

20

25

Util

izatio

n

mcbm

Base case

Demand Excess supply Utilization

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

TC

E (

US

D/d

ay)

Theoretical utilization vs rate elasticity

ƒ = 0 + 97989 * Util 6̂.6, R 2̂ =0.9918

| 5Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg

Market Balance

LPG pricing differential between US and Far East VLGC spot rates vs theoretical rates from pricing differential

Theoretical forward VLGC rates based on forward Crude prices

Energy pricing dynamics I

LPG price differential vs theoretical VLGC TCE/d

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pri

ce d

iffe

ren

tial

(US

FOB

vs

Asi

a C

IF)

LPG

pri

ces

(USD

/t)

LPG price differential: US vs Far East

Price differential (rhs) LPG US FOB LPG Far East CIF

-30,000

-10,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

VLG

C s

po

t ra

te (T

CE/

d)

VLGC spot rate potential vs Actual spot rates

Available for VLGCs ( TCE/d) VLGC spot rates (TCE/d) opex

-30,000

-10,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

VLG

C s

po

t ra

tes

(TC

E/d

)

Bre

nt

Cru

de

(USD

/bb

l)

Theoretical future VLGC rates

Brent crude futures curve Brent crude futures curve (+ USD 10)

Available for VLGCs (TCE/d) Available for VLGCs (TCE/d)

Assuming US LPG prices remain unchanged(TCE/d) 288 338 388 438 488

264 -7,232 16,541 40,314 64,088 87,861

314 -31,006 -7,232 16,541 40,314 64,088

364 -54,779 -31,006 -7,232 16,541 40,314

414 -78,552 -54,779 -31,006 -7,232 16,541

464 -102,326 -78,552 -54,779 -31,006 -7,232

Assumptions: Latest LPG prices, bunkers = USD 336/t, opex = USD 9,000/d

US

LPG

FO

B (

USD

/t)

Far East LPG CIF (USD/t)

| 6Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg

Market Balance

Feedstock switch occurs around USD 50-100 price differential Correlation: Far East Naphtha vs Brent Crude

Correlation: Far East LPG vs Naphtha

Energy pricing dynamics II

Correlation: Far East LPG vs Brent Crude

y = 8.1392x + 43.167

R² = 0.9861

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Nap

hth

a A

sia

(USD

/t)

Brent Crude oil (USD/bbl)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Pri

ce d

iffe

ren

tial

(Nap

hth

a vs

LP

G)

Nap

hth

a &

LP

G (U

SD/t

)

Far East price differential: Naphtha vs LPG

Price differential (rhs) Naphtha LPG

y = 8.1364x + 14.253

R² = 0.8919

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

LPG

Asi

a (U

SD/t

)

Brent Crude oil (USD/bbl)

y = 1.0164x - 42.699

R² = 0.971

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

LPG

Asi

a (U

SD/t

)

Naphtha Asia (USD/t)

| 7

Source: The Shipping Analyst, Clarksons

Market Balance

Summary

Econometric overview

Demand/Supply ('000 cbm)

VLGC, base case 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Deliveries¹ 575 904 2,206 975 732 244 162 1,073 669 2,935 3,861 2,325 411 689 967

Scrapping¹ (157) (546) (453) (304) (461) (241) - - - - (161) (234) (468) (468) (386)

Other¹ (71) 0 (76) (80) (0) (0) 0 0 - - - - - - -

Contracting¹ 2,270 325 242 - 413 415 913 3,271 3,874 3,397 416 277 945 1,211 1,228

Supply² 8,279 8,438 9,685 10,945 11,296 11,222 11,445 12,291 12,978 14,759 18,975 21,320 21,951 22,161 22,467

Δ y/y 3% 2% 15% 13% 3% -1% 2% 7% 6% 14% 29% 12% 3% 1% 1%

Demand² 7,127 6,775 7,603 7,134 8,595 9,346 9,454 10,473 12,293 14,354 14,697 15,628 16,939 17,956 18,853

Δ y/y 5% -5% 12% -6% 20% 9% 1% 11% 17% 17% 2% 6% 8% 6% 5%

Utilization² 86% 80% 79% 65% 76% 83% 83% 85% 95% 97% 77% 73% 77% 81% 84%

Spot rate² (USD/day) 37,845 24,023 23,234 6,074 17,178 30,861 30,817 36,951 72,669 82,644 21,136 12,829 18,494 25,363 31,697

Vessel value, 3y² (USDm) 58 62 67 71 73

OB² 4,360 4,723 3,128 1,491 807 1,006 1,454 2,490 6,771 7,290 5,266 2,519 2,116 2,621 3,118

OB/Fleet² 53% 56% 32% 14% 7% 9% 13% 20% 52% 49% 28% 12% 10% 12% 14%

¹Sum during period ²Average during period

VLGC, high case 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Deliveries¹ 575 904 2,206 975 732 244 162 1,073 669 2,935 3,861 2,325 411 794 1,735

Scrapping¹ (157) (546) (453) (304) (461) (241) - - - - (161) (234) (468) (468) (386)

Other¹ (71) 0 (76) (80) (0) (0) 0 0 - - - - - - -

Contracting¹ 2,270 325 242 - 413 415 913 3,271 3,874 3,397 416 430 1,951 3,748 4,306

Supply² 8,279 8,438 9,685 10,945 11,296 11,222 11,445 12,291 12,978 14,759 18,975 21,225 21,380 21,128 21,672

Δ y/y 3% 2% 15% 13% 3% -1% 2% 7% 6% 14% 29% 12% 1% -1% 3%

Demand² 7,127 6,775 7,603 7,134 8,595 9,346 9,454 10,473 12,293 14,354 14,697 16,214 17,742 19,517 21,468

Δ y/y 5% -5% 12% -6% 20% 9% 1% 11% 17% 17% 2% 10% 9% 10% 10%

Utilization² 86% 80% 79% 65% 76% 83% 83% 85% 95% 97% 77% 76% 83% 92% 99%

Spot rate² (USD /day) 37,845 24,023 23,234 6,074 17,178 30,861 30,817 36,951 72,669 82,644 21,136 16,633 29,729 59,805 92,843

Vessel value, 3y² (USDm) 58 64 77 95 106

OB² 4,360 4,723 3,128 1,491 807 1,006 1,454 2,490 6,771 7,290 5,266 2,590 2,778 5,212 8,283

OB/Fleet² 53% 56% 32% 14% 7% 9% 13% 20% 52% 49% 28% 12% 13% 25% 38%

| 8

Source: The Shipping Analyst

Our historical forecasts vs actuals

Actual VLGC spot rates vs our historical and current forecasts

We foresaw the 2016 rate collapse already in our first forecast in early 2014

31

37

73

83

21

13

18

25

32

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

VLG

C t

ime

ch

arte

r eq

uiv

ale

nt

spo

t ra

tes

(USD

k/d

)

Actuals/Forecast Mar/14 May/14 Aug/14 Nov/14

Jan/15 Mar/15 Jun/15 Feb/17 Jun/17

Company Overview

Table of Contents

| 10Note: Epsilon (ε) represents asset value elasticity of NAV (ie 0.20 => ΔNAV = +20% if Δasset values = 10%). Hence, it also represents another measure of leverage.

Company Overview

Valuation matrix

Average TCE/day across peer fleet vs comparable consensus Coverage overview

Valuation

USDm Mcap EV P/sh Value +/- NAV Now 1y fwd +10% ε 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

AVANCE NO 1,387 578 21.5 28.1 31% 37.6 0.57 0.43 0.46 0.24 84.0 12.6 6.5 4.1 8% 4% 7% 18% -10% 12% 35% 55% 0% 4% 8% 13%

BWLPG NO 4,214 1,851 29.7 37.0 25% 49.1 0.60 0.48 0.49 0.24 14.2 12.6 6.8 4.1 5% 5% 9% 26% 3% 14% 34% 53% 0% 2% 6% 10%

LPG US 417 1,152 7.6 6.9 -9% 12.3 0.62 0.51 0.52 0.19 49.6 16.4 9.3 5.9 3% 7% 11% 23% -1% 10% 21% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Average 2,006 1,193 15% 0.60 0.47 0.49 0.22 49.3 13.9 7.5 4.7 5% 5% 9% 22% -3% 12% 30% 47% 0% 2% 5% 7%

Median 1,387 1,152 25% 0.60 0.48 0.49 0.24 49.6 12.6 6.8 4.1 5% 5% 9% 23% -1% 12% 34% 53% 0% 2% 6% 10%

P/NAV Liquidity/(GIBD + eq. capex) Dividend yieldFCF yieldEV/EBITDA

13,973

18,131

24,336

30,163

17,021

24,478

32,311

- -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2017 2018 2019 2020

USD

/d a

cro

ss s

ecto

r fl

eet

Avg. TCE/d vs consensus & cash break-even

TSA Implied Consensus Cash Break-Even

BUYBUY

Neutral

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

AVANCE NO BWLPG NO LPG US

Targ

et P

rice

/ S

har

e P

rice

Price Rating Value

Company Specifics

Table of Contents

| 12


Avance Gas (AVANCE-NO)

Summary tables Quarterly cash flows & cash position

Quarterly break-even levels & TCE/day

Earnings and estimates

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net sales 52 90 126 158

EBITDA 7 46 82 113

EBIT -33 6 41 73

PTP -55 -16 20 51

Net earnings -55 -16 20 51

EPS -0.85 -0.25 0.30 0.79 USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net operational cash flow -15 24 60 91

Free cash flow -17 20 58 91

Net cash flow -113 -20 10 39

TCE/day 10,087 17,587 24,602 30,746

Cash break-even 30,893 19,434 19,754 19,196

Liquidity 36 17 26 65

Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 822 786 748 708

Total equity 402 379 386 416

Interest bearing debt 462 429 395 363

Net interest bearing debt 426 412 368 298

Market Cap. 159 159 159 159

Enterprise value 585 572 527 457

Capex 2 4 2 - USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fwd NAV 384 420 490 571

Adj. equity ratio 44% 48% 54% 60%

FCF yield -11% 12% 36% 57%

Dividend yield 0% 4% 8% 13%

EV/EBITDA 83.2 12.5 6.5 4.0

P/E (adj.) 8.1 3.1

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

USD

m

Cash flows

Net operational cash flow Net investing cash flow

Net financing cash flow Cash balance

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

USD

/day

Break-even levels

TCE/day Cash break-even Operational break-even P&L break-even

| 13Source: The Shipping Analyst


Valuation and target price Quarterly forward NAV and P/NAV

Quarterly forward NAV decomposition

Valuation I

USDm 1Q17 Fair value Implied

Primary assets 851 699 570

Contract value 0 0 0

Other 16 16 13

GAV 866 714 582

Net debt -413 -413 -413

Capex 0 0 0

Other -10 -10 -10

NAV 443 291 159

Shares 65 65 65

NAVPS 6.87 4.51 2.47

Share price 58.2 38.2 20.9

P/NAV 0.36 0.55 1.00

EV/GAV 0.67 0.82 1.00

Adj. Total Assets 940 788 659

Adj. Equity Ratio 47% 37% 24%

Target price NOK 28 36%

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

USD

m

Fwd. NAV

NAV (less oper. CF) Oper. CF NAV

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

P/N

AV

NA

VP

S (U

SD)

Fwd. NAV

NAVPS P/NAV

| 14



Impact on NAV/share from % change in asset prices % impact on NAV from % change in asset prices

Forward fleet valuation decomposition Forward fleet value and Loan To Value

Valuation II

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

Net

LTV

Pri

mar

y as

sets

(USD

m)

Net LTV

Primary assets Net LTV

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

USD

m

Fleet valuation

Fleet value, current prices Rise/Fall in asset prices Total fleet value

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%ΔN

AV

Δ Asset prices

Asset value elasticity of NAV

0.2

1.3

2.3

3.4

4.5

5.6

6.7

7.8

8.8

9.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

NA

V/s

har

e (U

SD)

Δ Asset prices


Assets Price

| 15



Valuation: Earnings based Valuation matrix

Valuation III

2017 2018 2019 2020

EBITDA Forecast 7 46 82 113

Net profit Forecast -55 -16 20 51

EV Forecast 585 572 527 457

M.cap Current 159 159 159 159

EV/EBITDA Forecast 83.2 12.5 6.5 4.0

P/E Forecast -2.9 -9.8 8.1 3.1

EV/EBITDA Target 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0


Implied EV 56 365 652 905

Implied M.cap -370 -47 284 607

P/imp. M.cap -0.43 -3.40 0.56 0.26

Value/sh -48.6 -6.2 37.3 79.7

P/E Target 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0


Implied M.cap -330 -98 117 306

P/imp. M.cap -0.48 -1.63 1.36 0.52

FCF yield Forecast -11% 12% 36% 57%

Div. yield Forecast 0% 4% 8% 13%

38

5047

-6

37

-13

1513

38

8

18

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pri

ce p

er

sha

re

/sh (ccy) Price TP

| 16

Source: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg


P&L, Year I P&L, Year II

Consensus EBITDA development Consensus target vs share price

Our estimates vs consensus

90

46

6

-16 -16

-50

-

50

100

150

200

Sales EBITDA EBIT PTP Net earnings

USD

m

TSA vs consensus range (2018E)

52

7

-33

-55 -55

-80

-60

-40

-20

-

20

40

60

80

100

120


USD

m


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

USD

m

Consensus' EBITDA development, past year

2017 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pri

ce p

er s

har

e

Consensus' TP vs share price, past year

Share price Target price, consensus

| 17


BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)




USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net sales 339 335 421 539

EBITDA 128 140 240 338

EBIT 11 23 122 221

PTP -37 -25 75 174


EPS -0.24 -0.17 0.52 1.21 USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net operational cash flow 18 92 191 289

Free cash flow 13 70 169 267

Net cash flow -15 8 32 212

TCE/day 17,858 18,675 24,071 29,579

Cash break-even 24,878 22,390 19,299 19,422

Liquidity 65 73 105 317

Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 2,314 2,218 2,124 2,029

Total equity 1,081 1,044 1,089 1,213

Interest bearing debt 1,386 1,335 1,227 1,220

Net interest bearing debt 1,320 1,262 1,122 904

Market Cap. 503 503 503 503

Enterprise value 1,820 1,761 1,622 1,403

Capex 87 22 22 22 USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fwd NAV 1,043 1,153 1,348 1,584


FCF yield 3% 14% 34% 53%


EV/EBITDA 14.2 12.6 6.8 4.1

P/E (adj.) 6.8 2.9

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

USD

m

Cash flows



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

USD

/day

Break-even levels



BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)



Valuation I


Primary assets 2,385 2,003 1,702


Other 85 85 72

GAV 2,469 2,186 1,857

Net debt -1,347 -1,347 -1,347

Capex 0 0 0

Other -7 -7 -7

NAV 1,115 832 503

Shares 142 142 142

NAVPS 7.86 5.86 3.55

Share price 66.6 49.6 30.0

P/NAV 0.45 0.60 1.00

EV/GAV 0.75 0.85 1.00

Adj. Total Assets 2,555 2,173 1,872


Target price NOK 37 23%

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

P/N

AV

NA

VP

S (U

SD)

Fwd. NAV

NAVPS P/NAV

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

USD

m

Fwd. NAV


| 19


BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)



Valuation II

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%ΔN

AV

Δ Asset prices


0.2

1.6

3.0

4.4

5.9

7.3

8.7

10.1

11.5

12.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

NA

V/s

har

e (U

SD)

Δ Asset prices


Assets Price

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

Net

LTV

Pri

mar

y as

sets

(USD

m)

Net LTV


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

USD

m

Fleet valuation


| 20


BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)


Valuation III

2017 2018 2019 2020



EV Forecast 1,820 1,761 1,622 1,403

M.cap Current 503 503 503 503


P/E Forecast -14.7 -20.3 6.8 2.9



Implied EV 1,026 1,118 1,916 2,708

Implied M.cap -291 -140 797 1,808

P/imp. M.cap -1.73 -3.59 0.63 0.28

Value/sh -17.3 -8.4 47.6 107.9

P/E Target 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0


Implied M.cap -205 -149 445 1,034

P/imp. M.cap -2.46 -3.39 1.13 0.49

FCF yield Forecast 3% 14% 34% 53%


50

63 62

-8

48

-9

27

21

50

7

18

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Pri

ce p

er

sha

re

/sh (ccy) Price TP

| 21

Source: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg

BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)

P&L, Year I P&L, Year II

Consensus EBITDA development Consensus target vs share price

Our estimates vs consensus

339

128

11

-37 -34

-100

-

100

200

300

400

500


USD

m


335

140

23 -25 -25

-200

-100

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


USD

m


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

USD

m

Consensus' EBITDA development, past year

2017 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pri

ce p

er s

har

e

Consensus' TP vs share price, past year

Share price Target price, consensus

| 22


Dorian LPG (LPG-US)




USDm (calendar years) 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net sales 114 161 205 250

EBITDA 24 71 115 160

EBIT -41 6 50 94

PTP -70 -23 22 66


EPS -1.27 -0.41 0.39 1.20 USDm (calendar years) 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net operational cash flow -4 43 87 131

Free cash flow -6 43 87 131

Net cash flow -23 32 28 77

TCE/day 14,177 19,994 25,530 31,024

Cash break-even 22,892 22,307 22,100 21,503

Liquidity 23 55 83 160

Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 1,604 1,539 1,473 1,408

Total equity 916 893 915 981

Interest bearing debt 803 803 744 690

Net interest bearing debt 780 748 661 530

Market Cap. 416 416 416 416

Enterprise value 1,196 1,164 1,077 946

Capex 2 - - - USDm (calendar years) 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fwd NAV 821 881 954 1,060


FCF yield -1% 10% 21% 32%


EV/EBITDA 49.6 16.4 9.3 5.9

P/E (adj.) 19.3 6.3

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

USD

/day

Break-even levels


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

USD

m

Cash flows




Dorian LPG (LPG-US)



Valuation I


Primary assets 1,620 1,267 1,036


Other 97 97 79

GAV 1,717 1,419 1,160

Net debt -735 -735 -735

Capex 0 0 0

Other -9 -9 -9

NAV 973 675 416

Shares 55 55 55

NAVPS 17.7 12.3 7.6

Share price 17.7 12.3 7.6

P/NAV 0.43 0.62 1.00

EV/GAV 0.68 0.82 1.00

Adj. Total Assets 1,760 1,408 1,177


Target price NOK 6.9 -9%

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

P/N

AV

NA

VP

S (U

SD)

Fwd. NAV

NAVPS P/NAV

0

200

400

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800

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1200

USD

m

Fwd. NAV


| 24


Dorian LPG (LPG-US)



Valuation II

0.8

3.1

5.4

7.7

10.0

12.3

14.6

16.9

19.2

21.5

23.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

NA

V/s

har

e (U

SD)

Δ Asset prices

Asset value elasticity of NAVAssets Price

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%ΔN

AV

Δ Asset prices


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

Net

LTV

Pri

mar

y as

sets

(USD

m)

Net LTV


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

USD

m

Fleet valuation


| 25


Dorian LPG (LPG-US)


Valuation III

2017 2018 2019 2020



EV Forecast 1,196 1,164 1,077 946

M.cap Current 416 416 416 416


P/E Forecast -6.0 -18.4 19.3 6.3



Implied EV 193 569 923 1,277

Implied M.cap -587 -180 262 747

P/imp. M.cap -0.71 -2.32 1.59 0.56

Value/sh -10.7 -3.3 4.8 13.6

P/E Target 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0


Implied M.cap -418 -136 130 395

P/imp. M.cap -1.00 -3.06 3.21 1.05

FCF yield Forecast -1% 10% 21% 32%


12.3

14.9 14.6

-3.3

4.8

-2.5

2.4

3.9

7.9

0.0 0.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Pri

ce p

er

sha

re

/sh (ccy) Price TP

The Shipping Analyst


Independence & Integrity


Shipping LPG - · PDF file13/06/2017 · Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg |...

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