Shining a light on the global cassava market: exploring ... Shining a light on the global cassava...

download Shining a light on the global cassava market: exploring ... Shining a light on the global cassava market:

of 53

  • date post

    12-Jul-2020
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    1
  • download

    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Shining a light on the global cassava market: exploring ... Shining a light on the global cassava...

  • Shining a light on the global cassava market: exploring the multitude of factors that impact farm gate price and livelihoods

    Dr. Jonathan Newby Regional Cassava Coordinator – Asia; Country Manager – Lao PDR j.newby@cgiar.org Vientiane, Lao PDR

    Jonathan Newby, Cu Thi Le Thuy and Erik Delaquis

    ACIAR CASSAVA PROGRAM FINAL REVIEW JULY 2020

  • ACIAR CASSAVA VALUE CHAIN AND LIVELIHOOD PROGRAM

    1. Global markets and external polices 2. Local value chains and domestic policies 3. Household livelihoods and trajectories 4. Field level agronomic and economic

    results 5. Implications for household livelihoods 6. Implications for local value chain actors

    Global markets and policies

    Local value chains and policies

    Household livelihoods and trajectories

    Agronomic & economics Plot level

  • Project objectives

    ASEM Objective 1 – Assess the current production, marketing, and institutional arrangements for cassava in major agroeconomic zones and value chains in Laos and Cambodia.

    1.1 Understand the macro-level drivers for the development of the local cassava industry in different agroeconomic zones in each country, including changing market conditions and policy settings.

    AGB Objective 1 – Assess opportunities and constraints for smallholder production and marketing of cassava within different value chains

    1.1 Understand the macro-level drivers for the development of the cassava industry including changing market and policy arrangements for cassava (starch, feed, chips) and substitutes (e.g., maize, potato, and sugar) and the potential benefits and risks to value chain actors

  • Why? • Understand the trajectory of the industry • What are the underlying market drivers? • What are the risks that will impact

    prices? • Understanding builds trust between

    actors

    • What does this mean for farm level economics?

    • What does this mean for livelihoods? • What does this mean for industry

    competiveness? • What does it mean for the incentive for

    actors to engage in either the adoption or scaling of new technology?

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    Ja n-

    14

    M ay

    -1 4

    Se p-

    14

    Ja n-

    15

    M ay

    -1 5

    Se p-

    15

    Ja n-

    16

    M ay

    -1 6

    Se p-

    16

    Ja n-

    17

    M ay

    -1 7

    Se p-

    17

    Ja n-

    18

    M ay

    -1 8

    Se p-

    18

    Ja n-

    19

    M ay

    -1 9

    Se p-

    19

    Ja n-

    20

    M ay

    -2 0

    Th ai

    F re

    sh ro

    ot p

    ric e

    (U SD

    /t @

    25 %

    st ar

    ch

    St ar

    ch a

    nd C

    hi ps

    - FO

    B Ba

    ng ko

    k (U

    SD /t

    )

    Roots USD/t (25%)

    Tapioca Starch (Super High-Grade) Export Price (USD/T)

    Tapioca Chips Export Price (USD/T)

  • Activity and output Activity Review information on global and national cassava production, utilisation, trade, and policies.

    Original output Annual market update

    Actual output Annual market updates, blogs, presentations, Facebook group, website

  • Starch World Asia World Tapioca Conference

    Industry engagement to share information

    Meeting between Thai Tapioca Starch Association and Vietnam Cassava Association

  • Social Media Engagement

    • 1070 approved members July 2020. • 59 Countries • Over 700 remain active in last 12

    months with 658 members active in the last 30days of the projects.

    • In the last 12 months of the project there was around 250 posts per year, 303 comments and 4,366 reactions.

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    13-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

    Women Men

  • Sustainability: Development of ‘The Cassava Lighthouse’

    “Helping cassava stakeholder navigate the cassava economy”

  • Impact: We built a community of information sharing

  • Where to start…..

    What is cassava used for?

  • A multi-billion global commodity most people know nothing about….. Farmers, government, researchers, donors

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    3.5

    4

    4.5

    5

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Va lu

    e of

    ca ss

    av a

    ex po

    rt s (

    Bi lli

    on U

    SD )

    Cassava roots and chips

    Cassava starch (tapioca)

  • On the demand side – the market outlook for cassava in Asia needs to be considered in the context of substitutes in different applications

    1. Global markets where cassava chips compete with other forms of carbohydrate for processing animal feed or ethanol such as maize, sorghum, wheat, molasses – oil, gas.

    2. Markets where cassava starch competes largely on price with substitutes such as maize and potato starch, sugarcane.

    3. Markets where the functional properties of the starch are desired. Consumer preferences, clean label segment, gluten free etc.

  • And on the supply side – the relative competitiveness against other land use in the context of different trends and shocks

    • Own price and relative prices to other commodities that can be produced in agro-ecological zones • Influenced by a range of policies

    • Changes in costs of production • Changing labour costs and ease of mechanization

    • Long term climate trends • Short term Floods and droughts • Changes in land suitability and land

    degradation (both ways) • Impact of pest and disease

  • Index of Thai cassava roots against global commodities that compete for smallholder land, labour and capital

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160 Ja

    n- 15

    M ay

    -1 5

    Se p-

    15

    Ja n-

    16

    M ay

    -1 6

    Se p-

    16

    Ja n-

    17

    M ay

    -1 7

    Se p-

    17

    Ja n-

    18

    M ay

    -1 8

    Se p-

    18

    Ja n-

    19

    M ay

    -1 9

    Se p-

    19

    Ja n-

    20

    M ay

    -2 0

    Maize Sugar, world Thai Roots

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    Ja n-

    15

    M ay

    -1 5

    Se p-

    15

    Ja n-

    16

    M ay

    -1 6

    Se p-

    16

    Ja n-

    17

    M ay

    -1 7

    Se p-

    17

    Ja n-

    18

    M ay

    -1 8

    Se p-

    18

    Ja n-

    19

    M ay

    -1 9

    Se p-

    19

    Ja n-

    20

    M ay

    -2 0

    Palm oil Coffee, arabica Coffee, robusta

    Rubber, SGP/MYS Thai Roots

  • It has been a wild ride for the cassava sector during life of the project!

    150

    170

    190

    210

    230

    250

    270

    290

    310

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    Ja n-

    10

    Au g-

    10

    M ar

    -1 1

    O ct

    -1 1

    M ay

    -1 2

    De c-

    12

    Ju l-1

    3

    Fe b-

    14

    Se p-

    14

    Ap r-

    15

    N ov

    -1 5

    Ju n-

    16

    Ja n-

    17

    Au g-

    17

    M ar

    -1 8

    O ct

    -1 8

    M ay

    -1 9

    De c-

    19

    Ca ss

    av a

    Ch ip

    s - FO

    B Ba

    ng ko

    k (U

    SD /t

    )

    St ar

    ch -F

    O B

    Ba ng

    ko k

    (U SD

    /t )

    Tapioca Starch (Super High-Grade) Export Price (USD/T)

    Tapioca Chips Export Price (USD/T)

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    Ja n-

    10

    Ju l-1

    0

    Ja n-

    11

    Ju l-1

    1

    Ja n-

    12

    Ju l-1

    2

    Ja n-

    13

    Ju l-1

    3

    Ja n-

    14

    Ju l-1

    4

    Ja n-

    15

    Ju l-1

    5

    Ja n-

    16

    Ju l-1

    6

    Ja n-

    17

    Ju l-1

    7

    Ja n-

    18

    Ju l-1

    8

    Ja n-

    19

    Ju l-1

    9

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    Fr es

    h ro

    ot s 2

    5% (U

    SD /t

    )

    Cassava Starch (FOB Bangkok) Roots USD/t (25%)

    Policy reform Drought

    CMD COVID

    Flood

  • Starch processors would like to stay in the train tracks

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    22

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400