Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.
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Transcript of Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.
![Page 1: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Shear Lines, Frontsand
Areas of Confluence/Diffluence
Mike Davison
HPC International Desks
![Page 2: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Shearlines vs. Fronts• Shear Lines: are associated with wind shifts
(direction and speed).– A line or narrow zone across which there is an abrupt
change in the horizontal wind component parallel to this line
• A line of maximum horizontal wind shear. • An area of directional wind confluence along the tail end of a
surface front.• Lacks the baroclinicity/density discontinuity of surface fronts
• Fronts: The interface or transition zone between two air masses of different density. – Density depends on temperature and moisture content– Fronts either lie along shear lines or can lag behind
them.
![Page 3: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Wind Confluence and Diffluence in the Caribbean
![Page 4: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Wind Confluence and Diffluence in South America
![Page 5: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Wind Divergence
![Page 6: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Divergence of the Wind
• We can express the divergence equation in a simplified form, with two terms:
• Direction
• Speed
• The direction and speed terms, in-turn, can be expressed as directional/speed diffluence and confluence– Confluence is not equal to Convergence
– Diffluence is not equal to Divergence
![Page 7: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Divergence (Cont)
• Divergence/convergence calculations need to take into account the direction and speed terms.– This is done through objective analysis
• Streamline analysis is a subjective technique, and it only shows directional diffluence and confluence.– It does not show convergence/divergence
![Page 8: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Example Directional Diffluence/Confluence
Directional Confluence Directional Diffluence
![Page 9: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Speed Diffluence/Confluence
Speed Diffluence
Speed Confluence
A
B
![Page 10: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Convergent or Divergent?
A
Directional Confluence
Speed Diffluence
![Page 11: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Convergent or Divergent?
![Page 12: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Convergent or Divergent?
A
Directional Diffluence
Speed Confluence
![Page 13: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Convergent or Divergent?
![Page 14: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Evaluation of Shear Lines
![Page 15: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Front/Shear Line Evaluation
![Page 16: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Front and Shear Line
![Page 17: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Front and Shear Line
![Page 18: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Front and Shear Line
![Page 19: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Front and Shear Line
![Page 20: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Forecast Hints
• During the Winter Months– Convective activity over the Gulf of Mexico and gulf
coast of Mexico tends to be capped below 500 hPa (20,000 ft)
• Evaluate upper dynamics for CONVERGENCE or DIVERGENCE before forecasting thunderstorms.
– If models forecast post frontal northerlies of 25Kt or greater, and dew point temperature of 20C (68F) or greater over southern Mexico.
• Forecast 12 hrs rainfall accumulation of at least 2-4 inches.
![Page 21: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Example of “Ideal” Conditions for Heavy Rainfall
![Page 22: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Example Front/Shear Line Caribbean
![Page 23: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Example Front/Shear Line South America
![Page 24: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Identify Features
![Page 25: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Satellite Interpretation
![Page 26: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Analysis
![Page 27: Shear Lines, Fronts and Areas of Confluence/Diffluence Mike Davison HPC International Desks.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032414/56649ee55503460f94bf57c3/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Analysis