Share Price Evaluation Method Hazim
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DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL Formula 2009 2010 2011 2012 P 0= ( Div 1 ) ( 0. 128) ( 0. 12) ( 0. 25 ) ( 0. 30) ( r E - g) (0.3- 0.05) (0.3- 0.05) (0.3- 0.05) (0.3- 0.05) P 0 Share price (RM) 0.512 0.48 1 1.2 Dividend yield (%) 0.1344 0.126 0.2625 0.315 0.512 0.48 1 1.2 26.25% 26.25% 26.25% 26.25% Div 1 Expected pay out dividend g Constant dividend growth (5%) r E Expected return (30%)
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Share evaluation
Transcript of Share Price Evaluation Method Hazim
HUP SENGDIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
Formula20092010201120122013
P0=( Div 1 )( 0. 128)( 0. 12)( 0. 25 )( 0. 30)( 0. 23 )( r E - g)(0.3- 0.05)(0.3- 0.05)(0.3- 0.05)(0.3- 0.05)(0.3- 0.05)
P0Share price (RM)0.5120.4811.20.92
Dividend yield (%)0.13440.1260.26250.3150.24150.5120.4811.20.92
26.25%26.25%26.25%26.25%26.25%Div 1 Expected pay out dividendgConstant dividend growth (5%)r EExpected return (30%)
THE DISCOUNTED FREE CASH FLOW MODEL
Formula20092010201120122013
1. Revenue growth (%)5%5%5%5%5%
2. Tax Rate(%)25%25%25%25%25%
3. Cost of Capital(%)30%30%30%30%30%
4. EBIT Margin(%)35,799,865.0032,742,314.0027,616,929.0044,351,085.0050,081,724.00213,405,132.00219,070,516.00240,231,011.00247,818,145.00251,407,055.00
16.78%14.95%11.50%17.90%19.92%
5. Expected Revenue (RM)(213405132 x 1.05)(219070516 x 1.05)(240231011 x 1.05)(247818145 x 1.05)(251407055 x 1.05)224,075,388.60230,024,041.80252,242,561.55260,209,052.25263,977,407.75
6. Expected EBIT (RM)(224075388.6 X 16.78%)(230024041.8 X 14.95%)(252242561.55 X 11.50%)(260209052.25 X 17.9%)(263977407.75 X 19.92%)37,589,858.2534,379,429.7028,997,775.4546,568,639.2552,585,810.20
7. FREE CASH FLOW (CFC) (RM)(37589858.25 X (1-0.25))(34379429.7X (1-0.25))(28997775.45X (1-0.25))(46568639.25X (1-0.25))(52585810.2X (1-0.25))28,192,393.6925,784,572.2821,748,331.5934,926,479.4439,439,357.65
7. VALUE (V 0) (RM)(28192393.69/ (0.3-0.05)(25784572.275/(0.3-0.05)(21748331.59/(0.3-0.05)(34926479.4375/(0.3-0.05)(39439357.65/(0.3-0.05)112,769,574.75103,138,289.1086,993,326.35139,705,917.75157,757,430.60
8. Share Price (P 0)Free Cash Flow (V 0)112,769,574.75103,138,289.1086,993,326.35139,705,917.75157,757,430.60(+) cash42,219,59853,696,22579,415,66781,144,915154,989,172.75156,834,514.1086,993,326.35219,121,584.75238,902,345.60(-) Debt45,406,11647,615,44373,854,83851,705,52254,815,919109,583,056.75109,219,071.1013,138,488.35167,416,062.75184,086,426.60
(/)Oustanding Shares (unit)120,000,000120,000,000120,000,000120,000,000120,000,000
Share price (RM)0.910.910.111.401.53
PRICE - EARNINGS RATIO (P/E Ratio)
Formula20092010201120122013
1. Share price ( Dividend Discount Model)
P/E RATIO = (P0/EPS)(0.512/0.224)( 0.48/ 0.194)(1/ 0.155)( 1.2/ 0.271) ( 0.92 / 0.306)228.57%247.42%645.16%442.80%300.65%P0 = Share PriceEPS = Earning Per Share
2. Share price ( Discounted Free Cash Flow Model)
P/E RATIO = (P0/EPS)( 0.91/0.224)( 0.91 / 0.194)( 0.11/ 0.155)( 1.4 / 0.271) ( 1.53 / 0.306)406.25%469.70%70.96%516.6500%P0 = Share PriceEPS = Earning Per Share
HWA TAI VS HUP SENGSHARE PRICE EVALUATION
Hup Seng Industries Berhad20092010201120122013
1. Share price ( Dividend Discount Model)
P/E RATIO = (P0/EPS)(0.512/0.224)( 0.48/ 0.194)(1/ 0.155)( 1.2/ 0.271) ( 0.92 / 0.306)228.57%247.42%645.16%442.80%300.65%P0 = Share PriceEPS = Earning Per Share
2. Share price ( Discounted Free Cash Flow Model)
P/E RATIO = (P0/EPS)( 0.91/0.224)( 0.91 / 0.194)( 0.11/ 0.155)( 1.4 / 0.271) ( 1.53 / 0.306)406.25%469.70%70.96%516.6500%P0 = Share PriceEPS = Earning Per Share
3. Share price ( Actual Price)
P/E RATIO = (P0/EPS)( 0.53/0.224)( 0.38/ 0.194)( 0.35/ 0.155)( 0.57 / 0.271) ( 1.21/ 0.306)236.00%196.00%226.00%210.00%395.00%P0 = Share PriceEPS = Earning Per Share
Hwa Tai Industries Berhad20092010201120122013Share price
P/E RATIO = (P0/EPS)(0.41/5.12) ( 0.57 / 0.96 )( 0.60 / -)( 0.31 / -) ( 0.405 / 1)8.00%59.38%--40.50%P0 = Share PriceEPS = Earning Per Share
