Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment...
Transcript of Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment Directorate · 2019-09-17 · Shardul Agrawala OECD Environment...
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Shardul Agrawala
OECD Environment Directorate
5th World Congress on Global Warming
and the Future of Mountain Tourism
Encamp, Andorra
March 27-29 2008
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The European Alps
Source: National Geographic
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Alps: Key Aspects
Population 15 million, plus 80 million tourists/year
Water Tower of Europe (Rhine, Rhone, Po)
Biodiversity hotspot (30 000 animal and 13 000
plant species)
Cross-roads of Europe (located in between two of
the most densely populated regions in Europe)
(Usable) Space is Very Limited …Population growth,
tourism, transport, and intense competition among
various land-uses already impose significant
pressures on the environment
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Climate and Climatic change in the Alps
Alps are at the crossroads of four climatic influences: Atlantic maritime (west); Mediterranean (south); Polar (north); and Continental (east)
There is considerable spatial variation in Alpine climate
Eastern Alps much colder (and the Mediterranean fringe much warmer) at comparable altitudes relative to Western Alps
Changing climate : 1994, 2000, 2002, and 2003 have been the warmest in the past 500 years. Recent warming three times the global average. Climate change scenarios project continued increase on temperatures, increase in intensity of winter precipitation, decline in summer precipitation.
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Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Key impacts: Reduction in snow cover
Glacier and permafrost retreat
Trends towards extreme precipitation
Shifts in natural hazards distributions
Key vulnerabilities: Winter tourism
Exposure to natural hazards
Key Questions: Can impacts be quantified over space and time ?
What is being done to adapt ? And with what consequences?
Is there any role for public policy ?
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Quantifying the impacts on winter tourism
Data collection of close to 700 ski areas in France,
Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Italy [666 medium to large ski
areas were eventually included in the analysis]
A ski area is snow reliable, if the upper half of its altitudinal
range has adequate snow-depth for ski operations for 100 days
per season (100-days rule).
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Quantifying the impacts on winter tourism
The “100-days” Rule
For economic viability it has been shown that Alpine ski areas
should have “adequate snow depth” for at least 100-days/season
Currently, for much of Switzerland, 100-days of 30cm snow
depth have been shown to occur at altitudes of about 1200m
This altitude of natural snow reliability is lower for colder regions
(e.g. eastern Alps), and higher for warmer regions (e.g. the
Mediterranean fringe)
These altitudes for natural snow reliability will climb for all
regions, will climb for all regions.
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Quantifying the impacts on winter tourism
Altitude of
natural snow
reliability line
France Switzerland Austria Italy Germany
1050m
Salzburg
Steiermark/Styria
Oberösterreich/Up
per Austria
Niederösterreich/L
ower Austria
Oberbayern
/ Upper
Bavaria
1200m
Isère
Savoie
Haute Savoie
Alpes Vaudoises
and Fribourgeoises
Valais/Wallis
Bernese Oberland
Central Switzerland
Eastern Switzerland
Grisons
Vorarlberg
Tyrol
Kärnten/Carinthia (assuming that the
‘positive’ effect of
continentality is offset by
the ‘negative’ effect of the
southern latitude)
Schwaben/
Swabia
1500m
Drôme
Hautes Alpes
Alpes de Haute
Provence
Alpes Maritimes
Ticino Piemonte
Lombardia
Alto Adige/ South
Tyrol
Friuli/
Venezia/Giulia
Trentino
Regional variation in altitude of snow reliability
Variation with temperature: The snowline and altitude for snow
reliability has been shown increase by 150m / 1 °C rise in temperature.
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(Normalised) Sensitivity of Winter Tourism to Climate Change
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Sensitivity of Winter Tourism to Climate Change
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Italy
Austria
France
Germany
Sensitivity of Winter Tourism to Climate Change
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Technical Adaptations I
Landscaping and Slope Development
Contouring/Smoothing of smaller areas
Landscaping/Bulldozing of wider areas
Goal: Facilitate the use of grooming equipment for ski run preparation,
reduce the snow depth required for skiing (also cost saving strategy for
snowmaking)
Limitations: Impact on vegetation/landscape, environmental regulations
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Technical Adaptations II
Going Higher and Facing North
Developing north facing slopes
Moving operation to upper part of existing ski area
Extending existing ski area to higher elevations
Building new ski areas at higher elevations
Goal: Concentrate ski operation in climatically
advantaged locations
Limitations: Topography, investment costs, environmental regulations,
climate (avalanches, heavy winds)
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Technical Adaptations III
Artificial Snowmaking
Area covered by snowmaking: Austria: 50%,
French Alps: 15.5%
Bavaria: 11.5%, Italy: 40%, Swiss Alps: 18%
Growth of Snowmaking in France
Number of ski stations with snowmaking equipment
0
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200
1979
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0
500
1,000
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2,000
2,500
3,000
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4,000
4,500
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Are
a (
ha)
0
50
100
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Insta
lled
Po
wer
(Meg
aw
att
s)
Total pow er installed (MW) Area covered w ith artif icial snow
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Environmental Externalities – water and energy consumption.
[4000 cubic metres required per hectare of ski run… issues of water
withdrawal, storage]. Also issues of noise pollution.
Non-linear Costs: Energy costs for snow making will increase
non-linearly with rising temperatures
Biophysical limits: Snowmaking still requires ambient
temperatures to be typically below -2 ºC. Additives could raise this
limit to 0 ºC, but the use of additives raises other concerns.
Aesthetics and Consumer Choice: Even if snowmaking is
technically feasible, would consumers really want to ski on a narrow
white carpet ?
Is Snow-making the panacea to rising temperatures ?
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Photo courtesy of Bruno Abegg
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Other Adaptations
Active Glacier Protection
From skis to spas
Financial instruments (insurance, weather derivatives..)
All year tourism
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Role for public policy
Oversight of market forces
Manage environmental and social externalities created by
adaptation measures (e.g. snow-making impact on water
and energy)
Facilitate transition and avoid maladaptation
Avoid efforts and policies supporting the status-quo;
Develop transitional policies to help the tourism sector adjust
to a new climate.
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Some Concluding Remarks
Rising temperatures will lead to a significant concentration of the Alpine ski industry.
These changes need to be viewed in conjunction with other trends, particularly the consolidation of the ski industry and the aging of the European population.
Significant autonomous adaptation is already taking place – however, not all areas can adapt equally, and many adaptations face significant biophysical and economic limits as temperatures continue to increase.
More coherent public policies are needed to oversee the environmental and social externalities created by adaptation measures
The tourism industry, governments, and civil society also need to collectively focus more on how to facilitate sustainable transition and avoid maladaptation
Avoid efforts and policies supporting the status-quo;
Develop transitional policies to help the tourism sector adjust to a new climate.