!"#"$%&#'()(*+%'+,-. 01.30.17 | Ammar Qusaibaty, PhD !

Shaping the next catalyst of energy innovation !

1

Moon shot (1961)

Lunar Landing: 1969

2

SunShot: The Apollo mission of our time

75% reduction in costs across all sectors

between 2011 and 2020

3

SunShot Initiative 2030 Goal

3

Transaction costs make up

65% of total price of residential

system

* This is an approximation based on an internal analysis by National Renewable Energy Lab study of solar deployment costs (2014)

Secretary Chu - SunShot Grand Challenge Summit 2012

Structural barriers

Market barriers + fragmentation are many

49% of households cannot procure

rooftop solar due to rooftop limitations

15 states have interconnection policies

deemed overly restrictive

14 states installed fewer

than 25 MW of PV in 2015

7 states with no process for

compensating exported PV

20million low income homes have good

solar potential but may be excluded from deployment

32% of consumers have insufficient

credit to procure solar

73% of installations are

concentrated in 5 states

1/3 of installers have avoided doing

business in jurisdictions with cumbersome permitting

50day median

interconnection time for a PV system

7

Many proxies to measure market maturity

Complexity Price Time Access

Balance of Systems (Soft Costs) Dr. Elaine Ulrich. Program Manager

Soft Costs Portfolio Funding: ~ $125m Awards: ~100 nation wide

Empowering Leaders & Decision Makers •! Rooftop Solar Challenge 1&2: 8 Regional Teams, 150M Residents •! Solar Outreach Partnership : Nationwide Technical Assistance •! National Lab Analysis and Assistance: Strategy and in-depth reports •! Solar Market Pathways: Community Solar, finance and deployment innovations •! Solar Powering America by Recognizing Communities (Sol Smart) •! SunShot Prize: Race to 7-Day Solar

Training Innovators •! Solar Instructor Training Network: 400 Community Colleges training installers and code officials •! Grid Engineers for Accelerated Renewable Energy Deployment: Utility Power System

Engineering network •! Solar Utility Networks Replicable Innovations in Solar Energy: Replicable solutions for

electric coops and rural communities

Harnessing Data & Analysis •! Solar Energy Evolution and Diffusion Studies: Big Data, analytics and real-world pilot

programs, University, Private and Lab developed tools: Making data accessible •! SunShot Incubator : Software start-ups in GIS, customer acquisition, finance and more •! Catalyst: Innovation ecosystem for rapid prototyping and launch of IT and automation solutions

Finance & Business Innovation •! Advanced Financing : Loans, MLPs, and new streams of capital for solar finance •! Solar Access to Public Capital: 350+ finance, ratings agency, developer and installer partners

developing standards contracts and templates •! Real Estate Valuation: Linking appraisal and finance best practices •! Community & Shared Solar: Expanding solar beyond residential rooftops to multi-family,

commercial and community based projects

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Solar deployment progress

0.1% 1.0% 2010 2016

Percentage of the U. S. electricity supply, from 1.2 GW to 30 GW in 2016

From To

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Mission: Accelerate the maturity of U.S.

solar markets while reducing

barriers to access

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Why Catalyst

The problem is not tech-to-market it is time-to-market

The solution is an open, goal-oriented, talent-driven ecosystem of

exponential innovation

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How to engineer accidents of innovation

innovation is a chain reaction accelerated by a series of

catalysts

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Testing exponential innovation

N Trails

Cost per trial

Speed

2 N/2

Trails

Cost per trial

Speed

Business as Usual (Linear) Open & Lean & Agile

12 teams/year $12 million

9 months to start

40 teams/year $3 million

90 days start to finish*

Disclaimer: Figures provides are only illustrative estimates and not based on actual incurred costs

* Every 90-day cycle had only 20 teams maximum capacity

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Key design decisions

1.! Combine coopetition with crowdsourcing to scale. Network effects matter

2.! Start with “problems” not “solutions”. Separate business innovators from technology engineering

3.! Create constrains, they lead to creative outcomes. MVP in 60-days is key.

4.! Reinforce the concepts of value proposition and product/market fit. They are simple concepts but difficult to implement.

5.! Invest in people and nudge them to use data to rapidly test business hypotheses and re-pivot.

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Catalyst transforms problems to real energy startups in 90 days

The SunShot Initiative

catalyst.energy.gov 4,376 views

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Catalyst process

catalyst.energy.gov

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Prototyping •! MVP* development •! Business/financial

model development •! Market entry strategy •! Network and industry

expertise expansion •! Demo Day

preparation

Prototyping contest process

*MVP = minimum viable product

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a super community of 997,507 software developers “prize competing” to build your software/data solution

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Goal: Inspire and nurture a network for mission innovation in energy (Results)

DOE Internal Use Only

Inspire 100,000 people

Engage 20,000 solvers

Connect 12,000

Enable 150

+5 million reached on Twitter

+25 thousand invited members

+ 5,350 active members +1200 software developers

75 videos by at least 150 people

285 problem statements

35 startups with at least 75 people + 5 ideation winners

()(*+%'+,-/&0)&1,#.

Solar problems solvable with software and data

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Examples of 60-day MVPs

PV Complete 60 days

$25k

Gridmates 60 days

$25k

DOE Internal Use Only

Demo Day keynote

DOE Internal Use Only 25

Catalyst Demo Day December 10, 2015. Michael Nutter, City of Philadelphia Mayor

Demo Day

DOE Internal Use Only 26

Demo Day pitch

Catalyst Demo Day December 10, 2015

Demo Day

DOE Internal Use Only 27

Demo Day Pitch Demo Day judges

Catalyst Demo Day December 10, 2015

Demo Day online

DOE Internal Use Only 28

Demo Day winners

The SunShot Initiative 29

Catalyst Demo Day December 10, 2015

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Catalyst teams value chain distribution

DOE Internal Use Only

Catalyst teams shaded in gray with business maturity indicator relative to other companies in the marketplace. Companies shown in “orange” were funded by SunShot Incubator Program.

Business Concept Pre-Angel Angel + Customers A Round B+ Round

Business Maturity Legend

Customer Identification

Customer Relations

Management

Sales + Systems Design/ Install

Land / Equipment + Supply Chain

Permitting + Interconnection

Financial + Risk Management

Services

Operations & Management

Hot 4 Solar* Solar Merchant* PVBid Solar Land Solutions* Accela EnterWise Solar DoctorSolar Action Network SimplifySolar Solar Site Design* EnergyBin Clean Power Research WindowStreet Solar RetinaSolar Power Report SolarAgs PVComplete* GeoCF GenBright Savenia* Tangerine+

Soluxify SunMetrix UtilityAPI* Kevala BeEdison TumalowSungiver SunSwarm Bright Harvest Solar Qado Energy Certain Solar Amicus Solar

YouSaveWithSolar Gridmates* Aurora Simply Civic Clean Power Finance Diaspark EnergyChooseEnergy MySunBuddy* Concept 3D Demeter Power EdgePowerClean Energy

ExpertsPickMySolar* enACT Evervest Geli

Energy Sage RE-volv Sighten kWh Analytics Power Factors Faraday Ethical Electric Folsom Labs Mercatus PowerHub

Geostellar Genbility Solar Mosaic StemPowerScout Interplay Learning Spruce Tigo Energy

Solar Census ModSolar Sungage Financial VoltaiqSunnumber SolarNexus Sunlight Financial Operant Solar

Sunvestment RA Power Village Power Finance

WiserCapital

* Incubation Contest cash prize winner

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Hot4Solar

10 SunShot winners

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75% of cash prize winners were amazing

DOE Internal Use Only

Team 1st Portion (Seed Round)

2nd Portion (Progress Round)

Success Ratio*

Utility API $30,000 $70,000 100%

PV Complete $30,000 $70,000 100%

Solar Site Design $30,000 $70,000 100%

Grid Mates $30,000 $50,000 80%

Savenia Labs $30,000 $0 30%

Hot 4 Solar $30,000 $50,000 80%

My Sun Buddy $30,000 $70,000 100%

Solar Book (Pick My Solar) $30,000 $70,000 100%

Solar Merchant $30,000 $50,000 80%

Solar Land Solutions $30,000 $20,000 50%

Livable Analytics $30,000 $20,000 50%

Kinetic Buildings $30,000 $70,000 100%

Success ratio = total prizes received by a team based on evaluated performance to maximum prizes allocated

Savenia Labs $30,000 $0 30%

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35 teams

10x cost reduction**

3x faster*

*From 9 months in a typical DOE FOA from application to benefit to 90 days *Average program cost per team is $100k compared to SBIR I, II phases at $1000k. **(Estimated) The base equals awarded cash and voucher prizes awarded to date and exclude total program cost as of May 2016

5x add-on funds***

21(.30)31,#.4)56"6-(. 78.

Small DOE team, big impact

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1.! DOE scheduled in January 2016 a number of group conference calls with participating teams after Demo Day to solicit feedback and comments. Roughly 12 teams participated in a group debrief and provided comments related to the Business Innovation Contest, Prototyping Contest, and Demo Day activities and format.

2.! DOE invited all 35 teams for a one-on-one 30-min session. 24 teams scheduled 30-min session over a period of 4 weeks that ended in mid May 2016. During these sessions DOE asked questions about:

•! Status of the startup (active, or not active) and expected status in 6 months

•! Value of capital raised, grants, in-kind support and active fundraising status

•! Number of full-time employees

•! Project annual revenues

•! Estimated valuation of their startup

•! Benefits in participating in Catalyst

•! How radically did they pivot away from the original product

•! How active they have been within the Catalyst community

Assessment methodology

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1.! 80% of all teams are still actively pursing their startups with 54% expected to be active in 2017 and 26% indicated likelihood to quit in 4-6 months. The remaining 20% secured other work opportunities

2.! Total reported full-time employees currently active is 95 with estimated $4-8 million in salaries*

3.! Total value of capital raised, public funding and in-kind value is $6.4m

4.! Total expected annual revenue reported is $5.6 million

5.! Total startup valuation reported estimate is $40-70 million**

Key findings

Actively fundraising?

40% (14)

40% (14)

20% (7)

Yes N/A Unknown

No

Expected to be active +12 months

Expected to be active only 4-6 months

Not Active

54% (19) 26%

(9)

20% (7)

Active startup?

* This estimated based on a range of salaries between $45k and $90k in solar startups ** This value is based on individual team’s estimates (21 teams only)

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Key findings (cont.)

24%

19% 57%

Pivot away from MVP?

No

Yes

Refine

Based on 21 Teams only

19%

52%

29% Active

Passive

Not involved

Based on 21 Teams only

Community involvement?

46%

25%

29% DOE

Validation

Rapid MVP Development

Connections Experience

Most valuable benefit?

Based on 24 Teams only

67%

24%

9%

Confidence in future direction?

High Medium

Low

Based on 21 Teams only

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Key surprises 1.! Crowdsourcing is not easy. It’s hard work. But it

works. 2.! “Prize” money is not enough to attract new

entrepreneurs. Need to inspire communities, nurture them and help them succeed.

3.! Innovation is geographically “sticky”, you need active local networks

4.! Competition on top talent is fierce, billion of dollars are chasing innovators in Fintech, Food-tech, Fashion-tech, AI, and digital health.

5.! Uberization of innovation "from the career, to the job, to the task*“ is trending. Get ready for “just in time“ talent!

*Source: Capital Markets and job creation in the 21st century, Jerry Davis. Bookings Institute (2015)

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Exponential innovation!"

1.! New sources of investments in clean energy innovation

2.! Multiple innovation pathways and new class of innovation managers

3.! The open multi-national conglomerate cooperation 4.! Hobbyist makers and maker spaces 5.! On-demand global talents and “community”

innovation

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EE RE

T

More integrated More access to talents More local high touch

Expanding Catalyst impact

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Catalyst integrated technology products

Solar Storage

Smart Appliances

Cooling & Heating

Storage

Plugin Electric

Plugin Electric

Digital Grid

Solar

Smart Appliances

Market Size Product Maturity Competition Level

Hugh Tiny 5th Gen 1st Gen High Low

Integrate with local ecosystems of innovation in a city near you

16 National Labs 75 Clean City Alliances 35 Energy Incubators

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Catalyst NeXT (Step #1)

catalyst.energy.gov

Ideation Contest

Catalyst NeXT (Step #2)

Catalyst Hub Catalyst Hub light

entrepreneurial training

product development

support

marketing help connections to

customers/investors

demo day

hosting

continued support +

empowerment

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Catalyst NeXT (Step #3)

catalyst.energy.gov

Business Innovation Contest

make your video pitch

choose local catalyst hub preferences

get matched if selected by

DOE

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Prototyping Contest •! Locally managed •! Nationally supported •! DOE quality oversight •! MVP* development •! Business/financial

model development •! Market entry strategy •! Network and industry

expertise expansion •! Demo Day preparation •! Local Demo Day

hosting *MVP = minimum viable product

min 15 max 25 teams / hub

Catalyst NeXT (Step #4) 60-100 high quality teams hosted in 3 to 5 local Catalyst hubs each selected Catalyst hub gets $55k to support teams in 75 days

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Catalyst NeXT (Step #5)

catalyst.energy.gov

Incubation Contest

local Demo Day per hub

5 winners/ hub DOE + Experts

$20k seed + $30k growth in 5

months

+ 3 months National Demo Day

$50k prizes to top 5 teams $100k prizes to top 2 hubs

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A crowd innovation prize that transforms problems to real energy startups in 90 days

catalyst.energy.gov

Ideation Contest

Business Innovation

Contest

Prototyping Contest

Incubation Contest

•! Crowdsource problems in adopting clean energy solutions from consumers, companies, utilities, and local authorities

•! 15 winners with $1k cash prize each

•! Inspire entrepreneurs to video pitch business solutions to top problems that can be rapidly validated with software, data, and light hardware prototyping

•! 60 winners with invitations to Prototyping Contest

•! Provide $50k vouchers to access national and local resources to build MVPs and business plans in 60 days provided by Catalyst qualified local innovation hubs

•! 60 winners with invitations to pitch in local Demo Days

•! Showcase startups in a local public Demo Day per hub •! 5 winners with $50k cash prize each per hub •! Showcase innovation hubs in a national Demo Day •! 2 catalyst hub winners with a $100k prize each

Investing in talent around energy innovation hubs in a city near you

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Questions

Tomorrow's!Clean Energy Startups Launched by People Like You around you | catalyst.energy.gov