Shale Gas – European Perspectives · 2018. 3. 6. · Risikostudie Fracking, Exxon Dialogprozess,...

ludwig bölkow systemtechnik

Shale Gas – European Perspectives

Dr. Werner Zittel

Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH · Ottobrunn

[email protected]

ASPO Annual Meeting, Vienna, 30th May 2012


• The decline of conventional gas • Unconventional gas resources in Europe

• Example - Germany • Example – Austria

• Summary


Natural Gas in Europe


Each area corresponds to the Combined contribution from all Fields developed in one year

Year

billion m³/yr

Source: DTI May 2012

Natural Gas Production in UK


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

NPD, March 2012

Mrd. m³/a

Jahr

Natural Gas Production in Norway

Troll

Sleipner-Ost

Asgard

Snoehvit

Kvitjeborn


Natural Gas Production in the Netherlands and official Forecast

Source: NL – oil and gas portal 2012

Groningen

Small fields

To be discovered Known undeveloped fields


Historical data: OECD 2008, DTI 2011, NPD 2012, BP 2011; Forecast: LBST 2009

0

200

400

600

800

1960 1980 2000 2020

Netherlands

Italy Germany

Imports from CIS, North Africa (constant to 2020, thereafter – 3% p.yr.)

UK

Other countries

Additional Imports?

Gas production and supply of Europe

Year

Billion m3/yr


European gas reserves are in decline European gas production is in decline Import dependence will rise considerably ⇒ European gas supply will depend on rising imports. ⇒ The risks will rise (security of supply, cost of supply) ⇒ Gas supply cost will rise

The focus on unconventional gas is an attempt to reduce these risks

⇒ The specific production volumes are much smaller

than from conventional gas fields ⇒ The development effort is much larger than for conventional gas fields ⇒ The potential environmental risks are larger ⇒ Production cost will rise considerably


Unconventional gas in Europe


Unconventional Natural Gas – What‘s that?

Not the gas is unconventional but the production method: • Shale Gas Gas which remained in the source rock (shale) because the rocks are not permeable • Coalbed Methane (CBM bzw. Coal bed methane) Gas which is absorbed in the pores of coal seams • Tight Gas (Gas in dichtem Gestein) Gas absorbed in the pores of rocks with low permeability.

=> All types of unconventional gas reservoirs need similar production techniques, so called „fracking“, „hydrofracking“ oder „hydraulic fracturing“ but the fracturing effort is highest in shale gas formations


The permeability of gas shales is by far lower than of tight gas and of conventional gas

Source: Total


Shale gas Tight gas CBM

Source: Schlumberger 2009

Potential Gas Shales in Europe (2009 view)


Assessed Shale gas basins With Resource estimate Without resource estimate Soure: World Shale Gas Resources: An initial Assessment Of 14 Regions outside the United States, US-EIA, April 2011

Shale Gas Basins in Europe (2011 view)


Source: World Shale gas Resources – Initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United States, U.S.- EIA, April 2011


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000 conv. Gas reserves

conv. Gasreserves

Natural Gas Reserves in Europe ?

Source: DENA/BGR 2012

Bcm


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000CBM - Resources

Shale GasResourcesconv. Resources

conv. Reserves

Natural Gas Reserves and Resources in Europe?

Source: DENA/BGR 2012

Bcm


Source: Tyndall 2010

Less pads with more wells (Exxon: up to 14 wells,OMV: up to 25 wells per pad)

~1-3 km (Germany) ~5-6 km (Vienna Basin)


Air emissions: - Benzol (Texas) - large VOC Emissions (Belastung in Texas größer als an Flugplätzen) - CO2 from the deposits (Antrim Shale) - Inhabitants get headages (not singular events), - direct contamination during blow-out - Emissions from heavy duty traffic and compressor stations in rural areas Water contamination: More than1000 locally identified contaminations of ground water/TEDX EPA-tests show that 25% of investigated water wells were contaminated - Gas an/or BTEX im potable water reservoirs (Pennsylvania, Texas) - waste water partly radioactiv and/or contaminated with heavy metals (Marcellus Shale) - Salination of surface water (Pennsylvania) / Corrosion von Industry units (Pennsylvania) Noise emissions: Consumption of landscape: - Drilling rigs, compressors, gas upgrading, heavy duty vehicles - well pads - waste water ponds Ground : - fresh water ponds - Uncontrolled subsurface diffusion - roads in rural areas

Potential environmental risks from nc gas production


Population density


USA Austria Germany

Producing gas wells 461,388 206 516

Producing oil wells 363,459 689 1128

Share of domestic production ~90 % ~ 10% ~ 10%

Population density and present oil/gas activity


France: Banned by law Bulgaria: Banned by law Poland: Downward revision of Resources; various dryholes by companies Germany: Fracking since 1995 (tight gas field Söhlingen) Octobre 2010: NRW offered 17,000 km² for exploration (half area of North Rhine Westfalia) Strong local opposition grew local policy strongly opposes hydraulic fracturing regional water authorities, water industry oppose „fracking“ Exxon financed dialog process between independent experts and inhabitants Final status (May 2011): Consence about quality of risks Oposing views about advices Political Moratorium until Environmental Study is released (end 2012)


Example Germany: Scenario calculations


Source: Risikostudie Fracking, Exxon Dialogprozess, Mai 2012


Source: LBEG, annual reports 1997 - 2010


Lower Saxonia

Damme 2+3 15th Feb 2008 2008 Niederwöhren 1 5th May 2009 2009 Schlahe 1 22nd May2009 2009 Lünne 1 14th Aug 2009 2010 ? Nöpke 2 5th May 2009 ??

Exploration wells Permit Drilling start

Source: Response of State Government of Lower Saxonia to request of Member of Parliament Stefan Wenzel (GRÜNE) (19th July 2010)

Shale gas wells in Lower Saxonia


A total of 17859 km² are permitted, among them: ExxonMobil/BEB 9,573 km² Wintershall Holdings GmbH 3,896 km² BNK Petroleum 2,046 km² Queensland Gas 2,046 km² Remark: Total Area of North Rhine Westfalia is about 34,000 km²

Exploration licences in North Rhine-Westfalia (2010)

Source: Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Energie, Bauen, Wohnen und Verkehr 2010


LBEG, Annual report 2009, supplemented

OS-Holte Z2

Bad Laer Z2

Drensteinfurt Z1

Nordwalde Z1

Borkenwirthe Z1

Lünne 1

Nöpke 1

Frontheim 1


3Legs Lizenzgebiet zur Exploration 2010 Im Bereich des Bodensees

Quelle: 3Legs 2010


Leakage waste water pipeline

Leakage Reinjection well

Aquifer contamination

Waste water diffusion

Frack-fluid diffusion Deepwater contamination With frack-fluid

Methane diffusion

Leakage production well Leaking chemicals at well pad / transport Blow-out

Possible Groundwater contamination with frack-fluids or waste water


Threefold well casing


km km

Potential field development in NRW (200 km²; 22 well pads; 14 wells/pad)

Well pad (100x100 m²) Village+200m House+100m

Pipeline Gas purification plant


Assumptions: Initial production: 4 mill m³/month/well Decline rate : 7% per month cum production: 50 mill. m³ per well Drilling activity: 30.000 m per year

Scenario with 120 new wells within 4 years (cum production: 7 billion m³)


Scenario with 240 new wells within 8 years (cum. Production: 14.3 billion m³)

Assumptions: Initial production: 4 mill m³/month/well Decline rate : 7% per month cum production: 50 mill. m³ per well Drilling activity: 30.000 m per year (depth: 1000 m per well)


Source: LBEG Annual Report 2010

Proven and Probable Gas Reserves in Germany (conventional)

1980 2010

Year

400

100

200

300

Billion m³

Proven Reserve

Probable Reserve


0

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

TJ Natural Gas supply (including exports) and consumption in Germany

Source: BAFA 2010 (Werte für 2010 aus Jan – Okt extrapoliert)

Production in Germany

Imports from Netherlands

Imports from Norway

Imports from Russia

Other importe Consumption

100 bill. m³

10 bill. m³


0

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010



Production in Germany

Consumption

100 bill. m³

10 bill. m³


0

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028



Production in Germany (from 512 gas wells)

Consumption

100 bill. m³

10 bill. m³

250 shale gas wells with cumulative production of 14 billion m³


Source: World Shale gas Resources – Initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United States, U.S.- EIA, April 2011

Vienna


Source: Grünspecht February 2012

Possible Production Scenario in „Weinviertel“

50 well pads with 25 wells each

~5 km


Assumptions: Cum production per well: ca. 70 mill. m³ Decline rate 6% per month Drilling activity: 60.000 m/year

Austria: Scenario calculation 70 production wells within 6 years (depth 5,000 m)

Gas consumption of Austria

Cumulative production until 2030: ~ 6 billion m³


Summary

• Conventional gas production is in steep decline (in Europe) • Gas companies expect rising gas prices

• Europe is densely populated, oil and gas drilling activity is low • Drilling sites are close to or in cultivated agricultural areas

=> conflicts with interests of rural population are apparent

• When gas drilling activity is similar to or even higher than present, contribution to domestic gas supply will be small

• Strong environmental regulations will increase cost and slow down development speed => unconventional gas supply in Middle Europe will not solve any problem of future European gas supply


Thank you!

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Shale Gas – European Perspectives · 2018. 3. 6. · Risikostudie Fracking, Exxon Dialogprozess,...

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