Seventh African Development ForumActing on Climate Change for Sustainable Development in Africa

Climate Change and Infrastructure Development

Issues Paper #8

ADF VII • 10 - 15 October 2010 • United Nations Conference Centre • Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

African Union Economic Commission for Africa

African Development Bank

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OverviewI.

1. Weak infrastructure isacriticalbottleneck inAfrica’sdevelopmentafterdecadesofunder-in-vestment.SoundinfrastructurewouldcontributesignificantlytoachievementoftheMillenniumDe-velopmentGoals.(MDGs).Changesinclimatewillstresscurrentinfrastructure,exacerbatingexistingweaknessesandforcingmajorprogrammesofrenewalandreplacement,well-supportedwithfinanceandtechnologyandimplementedbyskilledworkforces.

2. Thethreeprincipaldriversare:Development:Newinfrastructureisrequiredforpresentandfuturegenerationsexpectinga)higherstandardsofliving;Adaptation:Existingandplannedinfrastructureneedtobereinforcedandadaptedtocopeb)withhigher temperatures,greaterandmore frequentextremeevents,sea-level rise, in-creasedsandmovements,andchanginghydrology/precipitationregimes;andMitigation:Investmentinsmartinfrastructureandhumancapacitiesisrequiredtomitigatec)emissionsfrom,forexample,energy,transport,agriculture,andforestrysectors.

3. While investment is important in all sectors, abundant low-carbon energy is absolutely fun-damental formitigationand sustainabledevelopment. Similarly, appropriatewater infrastructure iscriticalforadaptationandsustainabledevelopment.Widespreadaccesstowaterandenergyprovidesmanydevelopmentbenefits,suchasreducingpoverty,improvingsocialandhumandevelopmentandopeningeconomicopportunitiesinbothurbanandruralareas.

Mitigationofemissionsrequiresnewtechnology,planning,capacityandfinanceforprovision4. oflow-carbonenergytechnologies.Adaptationwillbemuchmoredifficultwithouteasyaccesstowa-terandenergy.

StakeholdersII.

A. General considerations for climate-proofed infrastructure

5. Decisionsmadetoday,forexample,increatingneworretrofittingoldinfrastructure,itshouldbeensuredthatsuchinfrastructureisrobustenoughtocopewithfutureclimaticconditions,includingchangesinprecipitation,temperatureextremes,andtheprobabilityandseverityofnaturalcalamities,suchasfloodsanddroughts.Thefollowingshouldbeconsidered:

TheinfrastructuredeficitinAfricaisvast.Mostexistinginfrastructurehasbeenbuiltwitha)low-energyefficiencyandbasedonhistorical climate information. TheWorldBankesti-matesthat$US93billionisneededtoimproveAfrica’sinfrastructure;nearlyhalfofitonpowersupply.Thisamountwillbemuchgreaterfornewinfrastructurethatis(i)lowcar-bon,(ii)climateproofed,and(iii)developmentally-soundandsustainable;Designandconstructionstandardswillneedtobechangedasamatterofpriority.Newb)infrastructuremusthaveclimatechangeconsiderations integrated into theirdesignandplanningprocessestoensurefuturesustainability.Guidelinesforclimateriskassessmentandbetterstandardsforplanningofenergy,land,wateruseandconstructionneedtobedeveloped;

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Thefunctionalityofmuchoftheexistinginfrastructureisthreatened,forexample,byfloodsc)andsea-levelrise.Thisistrueparticularlyfortransportandforurbanandindustrialsiteslocatedinlow-lyingandcoastalareas;Formitigation,energy infrastructureneeds replacement. Long-termplanninghas toad-d)dressdevelopmentandemission-reductiongoals.Thismightinvolvechangeinpracticeinsuchareasasenergyefficiency,new infrastructure,andanenablingenvironmenttoen-couragebehaviouralchange;Muchinfrastructureneedsupgradingtocopewithgrowinghumanneedswithinadifferente)climaticregime.Forexample,energy,dams,urbanwatersupply,sanitation,andtransport;Newlow-carbonenergywillberequiredforeconomicandsocialdevelopmentinlinewithf)improvementsinwealthandqualityoflifeforlargernumbersofpeople;Newtechnologieswillneedtobemoreenergy-efficienttominimizeemissionsduringcon-g)structionandoperation.Forinstance,cementproductioncontributessomefivepercentoftotalglobalemissions;Agriculture-relatedinfrastructurewillneedmajoroverhaulinordertoproducemorefoodh)forthegrowingnumbersofpeopleinlesspropitiousclimates,whilereducingemissions;While improvedinformationandcommunicationtechnology(ICT)hashadatransforma-i)tionalimpactonthecontinentbyenablingaccesstofinance,andenhancingthedynamismandefficiencyofmarkets,furtherdevelopmentsareneededfordistancelearningandtoreducetravel;Astrongandequitableglobalagreementisvitalto‘cap’theimpactoffutureclimatechang-j)es,reduceuncertainties,andtherebyfacilitate long-termplanning.For instance, knownpeaksealevelscanbeaccommodatedinplanning;sustainedriseovercenturiesisaplan-ningnightmare;Thefunctioningofrailways,waterways,andmass-transitsystemsaswellasofhomes,of-k)fices,andfactorieswillhavetobere-thought,forcreationofmuchmoresustainablecities;andWiseinvestmentininfrastructuralrenewalwillsustaingrowthandmaintainemployment.l)

B. Sectoral considerations in building resiliency into infrastructure systems

6. SinceclimatechangewillaffectallpeopleandallsectorsinAfrica,infrastructure-asasupportsystem-willneedattentioninallsectors.Theparticularsectorsofinterestinclude,(i)energy,(ii)waterandsanitation,(iii)transportandICT,(iv)urban,industrialandcoastal,and(v)ruralinfrastructure(inrelationtolanduse,agricultureandforestry).

7. Energy: EnergyuseiscloselylinkedtodevelopmentasguidedbytheMDGsandgrowthingrossdomesticproduct(GDP).AccesstoelectricityiscurrentlyverylowinAfrica;lessthan25percentofhouseholdshaveelectricity.AlthoughAfrica’spotentialforhydropowerishuge,onlysevenpercentofthisisexploited.Furthermore,hydropowerhasahighshareoftotalenergygeneration(40-45percent),butisaffectedbythevagariesofclimatechange.Projectionsgivea10-20percentdeclineinrain-fallby2070andafallinriver-waterlevelsofasmuchas50percentby2030,invariouspartsofAfrica.Therefore,energygeneration,transmissionanddistributionaresomeofAfrica’smainchallengesgiventhatdemandformoreenergywillgrowrapidlywitheconomicgrowthandpopulationdespitethevul-nerabilityofhydropower.Africaalsoneedstomitigateemissionsfromcurrentandfutureenergyuse.Theidealistoexpandenergyavailability,whilereducingenergy-relatedemissions.Thisisanessentialpartoflow-carbondevelopment,achievablethroughamuchmoreexpandeduseofrenewableenergy,togetherwithenergy-efficiencymeasures.

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8. Urban and industrial energy:Electricpowergridswillneedextendingandstrengtheningwithgreaterproductioncapacityfromadiversityofsourcestoreducedependencyonfossilfuels.Smartgridsand regionalproduction schemes suchas solarpower indeserts,hydropower,offshorewind,waveandtidalenergytechnology,andgeothermaltechnologycouldprovidenewandcleansourcesofenergy.Accesstomoderntechnologyisthereforecriticalandincreasedpowerpoolingisinevitable.

9. Rural energy:AccesstoenergyinruralareasiscurrentlyverylowinAfrica.In2007,theconti-nenthadabout500,000solarhomesystemsinuse,morethanhalfoftheseinKenyaandSouthAfri-ca.Developingoff-griddecentralizedrenewableenergysuppliesisacost-effectivewayofincreasingaccesstoenergyinruralareas.Off-gridoptionsincludesolarphotovoltaic,microhydropower,biogasdigesters,smallwindturbines,andbio-fuelsfromnon-foodcropsources.Thesetechnologiescouldalso improveadaptivecapacityand reduce the riskofnaturaldisasters.Renewableenergiesalsopromotegenderequalitybyreducingtheburdenonwomenofcollectingfirewoodandwaterandotherneeds,forcarryingouthouseholdchoresandgeneratingincome.Reducingtheuseofbiomassforcookingandheatingwillsignificantlyreducedeforestation,reducingtheriskoffloods.Electricitycanbeusedtoimproveaccesstocleanwater,tocoolmedicalsuppliesinruralhealthcentres,andforfoodpreservation.

10. Formitigationpurposes,thetechnologiesmostfrequentlyrequiredinAfricaincluderenewableenergy, energy-efficientappliancesandbuildings, efficient landmanagement, andpublic transport.Theenergy sector requiresamajor transferofenvironmentally-sustainable technologies,especiallyforenergygeneration.Themostcommonlyidentifiedtechnologyneedsformitigation,relatetosolarenergy,biomassenergy(forestandcommunalbio-waste),largeandsmallhydropowerplants,efficientlightingandwaterheating,geothermal,waterpumping,efficientandlow-fuelconsumingstovesandovens,andsolardryingofagriculturalproducts.Transportwillneedtoconvertfromoiltobio-fuels,electricityorhydrogen,dependingoncircumstances.

11. Water and sanitation:Projectionsindicatethat230millionAfricanswillfacewaterscarcityby2025asaresultofdecliningwaterresourcesandduetoincreasingconstraintsonwaterresources,es-peciallyinhotterclimates.Muchofthewaterinfrastructurewillneedupgradingtomaintainadequatesuppliesformeetingfuturedemand.Thistransformationcouldbeachievedinharmonywiththedi-versityofwateruses includingforagriculturalproduction,fishing,navigation, industrialproduction,domesticconsumption,andecosystemsustainability.

12. Constructionofnewdamsandupgradingexistingoneswillbecomeessentialtosustainurbanwater andhydropower supply under conditions ofmore frequent river-flowvariations and greatercompetitionforwater.Watershedsalreadyneedimprovedmanagement(agro-forestry,erosioncontrolandlivestockmanagement)toprotectwaterresources.Managementofriverswillrequiretrainedstafftoengageinminimizingfloodrisksalongbridges,culverts,andembankments.

13. UrbanandruralwatersupplieswillneedtocopewithbothincreasingpopulationanddroughtinmanypartsofAfrica,whileinflood-proneareas,flood-preventioninfrastructuresuchasdrainage,strengthenedriverbanks,andprovisionofcleanwaterareimportant.Desalinationinfrastructuremayberequiredforhigh-valuewaterincoastalareas,dependingonthefragilityoflocalcoastalecosystems.Improvingurbansanitationishugelyimportantinmanycountries, includingimproveddrainagesys-temstomitigatetheincreasingrisksofurbanfloods.Aprocesscombiningthecollectionofwasteandconvertingitintofuelorelectricpowerprovideswin-winsolutions.

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14. Transport: Asearlierstated,therearemanythreatstoexistinginfrastructure(roads,railways,harbours,waterways,airports)fromincreasedfloodriskandsea-levelrise.Coastalnetworksmayneedcomplete replacement with upgrades (new bridges, culverts, rivermanagement training) requiredelsewhere.Theexpectedincreaseinthefrequencyofextremeeventswillfurtherincreasedamagetoinfrastructure,lossoflife,andfinancialburdenstogovernments.However,transportequipmentalsoposesthreatstoclimatechange.Newtypesoffuel(bio-fuels,hydrogen,electricity,solarenergy)willbeneededtoreplacepetroleum/oil.Further,theeffectoftransportinfrastructureontheenvironment,especiallyforests,landstability,andwatercourseswillhavetobeminimized.Sustainabletransportwillhavetobefosteredatthetransport-policylevel.

15. Information and communication technology (ICT): Sustained investment in ICT infrastructureshouldbeahighpriorityinallcountries,toimprovecommunication,toopenmarkets,toprovideac-cesstofinance,telemedicineanddistancelearning,especiallyinruralareas.,Atthesametime,ICTusereducespeople’sneedtotravel.Inaddition,thereisneedforenhancedprotectionofICTinfrastruc-ture,forexample,fromextremeevents(floodsandstormswithhighwindsandlightning).

16. Rural infrastructure land use: agriculture and forestry infrastructure: Projections indicatingdecliningwateravailabilitywillleadtoseriousfooddeficitsinpartsofAfrica.ManyAfricancountrieswillbeabletobenefitfromglobalcarbontradingthroughmajorreductionsinemissionsbychangingland-usepractices.Thiswillrequiresignificantlystrengthenedagriculturalandforestryinfrastructure,muchofitinrelativelyremoteregions.Theestablishmentofagro-forestrysystemscouldhelptocopewithincreasedriskfromchangingclimaticconditions.Agro-forestrybenefitsofcarbontradingcomple-mentthoseobtainedfromtheuseofrenewablesourcesofenergy,suchassolar,windandbiogasandincreasedenergyefficiency.

17. Urban, industrial and coastal infrastructure: Improved planning, building regulations, flood-resistantdesign,watersupply,sanitationanddrainageareessentialshort-termsolutions. Improveddisasterriskplanning,preparednessandresponsewillalsohelptominimizetheimpactsofextremeweatherevents.Landissuescompelthepooresturbanresidentstoliveinhigh-riskareassuchasfloodplains,andtheirneedsshouldalsoberesolved.

18. Thetendencyto‘temporarily’protectlowlandareasfromsea-levelrisebymeansofdykesandseawallsmustbereconsideredinthelightof(a)possiblelong-termsea-levelriseofseveralmetrescombinedwith,and(b)stormsurgessuchasHurricaneKatrina’simpactonNewOrleans.MuchcoastalinfrastructureinAfricawillneedtoberelocatedsoonerorlaterifsea-levelrisesarenotaddressed.CountriesparticularlyvulnerableincludeEgypt,theGambia,Nigeria,Côted’IvoireandMozambique.Shorelinedefencestructurescouldhelpprotectvulnerablecoastlines - forawhileonly -especiallywheretheyenhancecoastalecosystemsaswellasprotectinfrastructuralassets.Citieslocatedonriverdeltasareparticularlyvulnerableduetolandsubsidence.

19. Cement for concreteisingreatdemandforsafeurbanandindustrialconstruction,butcementproductionisamajorsourceofemissionsbothduringproductionanduse.Arealternativesapossi-bilityinAfrica?Itispossibletopartlyswitchtobiomass-basedfueltoreplaceheavyfueloilandcoalin cement factories, thus becoming eligible for CDMprojects? Low-carbon cements are still at theresearchstagethoughseveralCDMprojectshaveattemptedimprovements.Poorlydesignedbuildingsconstructedwithinadequatematerialscanconsumeupto30percentmoreenergyforlightingandcooling.Designandconstructionmaterialswillhavetobeadaptedtofutureclimate.

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ConclusionIII.

20. Investment innewandexisting infrastructure inAfricamustbewell resourced,wellplannedandwellmanagedalongalow-carbonandclimate-resilientpath.Currentinvestmentof$US45billionperyearneedstobedoubledaccordingtotheAfricanDevelopmentBank(AfDB).Theneedsaremuchlargerthanthis,andtheirsolutionisveryimportantforAfrica’sfutureadaptation,mitigation,andde-velopment.

21. Infrastructuralplanningwillhavetoincorporatetheconcernsoverthenewweatherandclimaterisks.Capacity-buildingandmuchimprovedclimateinformationwillberequired,alongwithgreaterexchangeofbestpracticesthroughoutAfrica,asadvocatedintheClimateforDevelopmentinAfrica(ClimDevAfrica)programme.

Priority actions:

22. Theseshouldinclude:

Reform of planning processes to include climate change information, with enforceablea)land-andwater-usepoliciesandpractices,inharmonywithregionalcircumstances;Reformofbuildingregulationstosupportenergyandresourceefficiencyinnationalproc-b)esses,whilemaintainingregionalcoherence;Accesstoqualityclimateinformationandclimaterisk-managementprocesses;c)UpdatingtheAfricaInfrastructureplantoaccommodateclimatechangeconsiderations;d)Supportforregionalhydropowerandothercleanenergysources;e)Integratingclimatechangeconsiderationsintocontractsoninfrastructure;andf)Learningmoreabouttheimpactofclimatechangeoninfrastructuregiventheuncertaintyg)aswellasthebroadrangeofexpectedchangesinrainfallsandtemperature.

Key questionsIV.

23. Theseinclude:

Howcantheopportunityforcontinentalinfrastructuraldevelopmentandrenewalbereal-a)ized?Canregionalharmonizationhelpdrivetheprocessforward?Raisestandards?Encour-agecooperation?Assistnationalprocesses?Istheresufficientinformationonexpectedclimatechangestoenableadaptationofinfra-b)structuredesign?Whatistheinformationgaprelativetobestdesignandconstructionprac-ticesinAfrica?Whatlevelsoflong-termriseinsealevelshouldbeaccommodatedinnewcoastalinfrastructure?Canexistingportsandharboursbeupgradedtocopewithsea-levelriseorwillchanginganderodingcoastlinesmakethemunusable?WhatshouldbedonetoimproveinformationsharinginAfricaonsuchmatters?IsthereanalternativetoIntegratedWaterResourceManagement(IWRM)asbestpracticec)formanagingchangeinresourceavailabilityunderconditionsofincreasingdemand?Manyurbanandruralwatersuppliesareextractedfromgroundwater.Howcansuchsuppliesbemadesustainableinareasofpredicteddeclineingroundwaterrecharge?

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Inthecontextofplanninginfrastructuredevelopmentwithinever-changingclimatecondi-d)tions:

CanAfricancountriesabsorballthemajorinvestmentininfrastructurethatisrequired?i)Whatothersourcesoffinanceareavailable,andwhatfinancialgovernancearchitec-tureisrequiredtomaximizesuchsources?Howcanexistingplanningandconstructionregulationsbereformed,implementedandenforcedeffectively?Howcanthelow-carbonpathbeintegratedintoexistingandfutureplans?ii)How can infrastructural investment be programmed to sustain growth and employ-iii)ment?

WaterharnessingandproductivityareverylowinAfrica.Howcanthesebeimproved,es-e)peciallyinareasofprojectedwaterstress?Towhatextentshouldcurrentprogrammes,suchastheAfricanUnion’sProgrammeforIn-f)frastructureDevelopmentinAfrica(PIDA)beimprovedtotakeaccountofclimatechange?