8/9/2019 Seven Banks Fall; another 74 Defer TARP Dividend Payment

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

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Mar ch 2 2, 2010 Seven Bank s Fal l ; anothe r 74 Defer TARP Dividen d Payment

Seven Community Banks get closed by the FDIC on Bank Failure Friday. We now have 74Deadbeat banks that did not make dividend payments due on February 16 th. The FDIC issending the wrong message with regard to the banking system. Yields are on my key pivot aswe enter a week of heavy supply of US Treasury auctions. Today I look at the daily and weeklycharts for the Dow Industrial Average.

The FDIC seized seven banks on Bank Failure Friday. All but one were overexposed to C&D andCRE and that one was credit card company Advanta Bank Corp (ADVNA). This bank had $1.6 billion inassets and the FDIC did not have a suitable bank to take them over. The insured deposits will bemailed to depositors on Monday, which could have some folks stock without cash until these funds areset up by the consumer in another bank account. I hope customers of Advanta had their currentmailing addresses on file?

The other six closures has their assets transferred to another bank and only one was publicly traded;Appalachian Community Bank (APAB), and yes, this bank was on the ValuEngine List of ProblemBanks with overexposures to C&D loans at 847% and 1234% to CRE loans. Remember that theregulatory guidelines are 100% for C&D and 300% for CRE, so are banking regulators were extremelylax in the fiduciary responsibilities.

The Bank Failure Scorecard 37 bank failures for 2010 brings the total since the end of 2007 to 202.My predictions remain 150 to 200 failures this year and 500 to 800 into 2013.

The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) has now been tapped for $6.2 billion in 2010, bringing the DIFdeficit to $27 billion excluding the prepaid $46 billion that sits on the sideline for 2010 through 2012.Another prediction still stands is that the FDIC will tap its $500 billion temporary line of credit with the

US Treasury this year as the net balance for the DIF is just $19 billion.

While the US Treasury touts the successes of the TARP, 74 banks have decided not to make theirdividend payments due on February 16th. In August there were 33 deadbeat banks, and then there was55 in November. Of the 74 deadbeat banks 25 reneged for the first time in February.

Some say this is no big deal since these 74 banks only received $3.4 billion in TARP bucks. In somecases its the state bank regulators that are telling banks not to pay dividends if their earnings arebelow a certain threshold. I say that many of these banks should have not received TARP because oftheir overexposures to C&D and CRE loans and I will discuss this in my April FDIC Report update,which is available to subscribers only.

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The FDIC sends America the wrong theme on Housing and Banking.

Noncurrent loans among FDIC-insured financial institutions reached a record high of 5.4% at the end of2009. FDIC Chair Sheila Bair still says that The Great Credit Crunch began on Wall Street and is nowmostly felt on Main Street, and says that poor credit performance is a lagging indicator.

Sheila Bair is totally wrong; The Great Credit Crunch began on Main Street with risky real estatelending by community and regional banks. Our regulators chose to bail out Wall Streets too big to failbanks leaving Main Street community banks to fend for themselves. The FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile has been my leading economic indicator since 2006. Noncurrent loans at a record high is aleading indicator that The Great Credit Crunch will have more chapters in its saga.

10-Year Note This weeks support is 3.734 with my semiannual pivot at 3.675 and monthly resistanceat 3.477. The US Treasury auctions $44 billion 2-Year notes on Tuesday, $42 billion 5-Year noteson Wednesday and $32 billion 7-Year notes on Thursday.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Dow Daily ChartAnnual support is 10,379 with a weekly pivot at 10,623 and todays resistance at10,798. The 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages are supports at 10,514 and 10,400. Note theextreme overbought condition.

8/9/2019 Seven Banks Fall; another 74 Defer TARP Dividend Payment

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Dow Weekly ChartThe weekly chart is positive and the upside is to annual and semiannualresistances at 11,235 and 11,442, not 11,500. With stocks overvalued my prediction remains, Dow8,500 before 11,500.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

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Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as

well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.