General survey of developments

THE NEW ENERGY MARKETS OF THE SOVIET UNION AND EAST EUROPE

by Paul K. Lyons

Financial Times Business Information, London, UK, 1990

With all the change occurring in East- ern Europe and the USSR and the prospects for much greater Western economic involvement in the region, there is now an almost overwhelming demand for information about these countries. This study, described as a ‘Management Report’, is a short over- view of the current energy situation in Eastern Europe and the USSR. It is obviously oriented towards a business readership. geared towards meeting the current ‘pressing need for basic information’ about the energy sector in these countries. The principal author, Paul Lyons, is editor of the Financial Times European Energy Re- port, with a contribution by Marko Bojcun on the USSR. The study is thus a distillation of his periodic pieces on these countries that have appeared in the Report.

In general, this study meets its objective: it provides a useful general survey of current developments that is very readable, supplemented with basic data and other material in a single, readily available source. One problem, however, with such an abbreviated treatment, is that in some cases, such as the discussion on econo- mic reforms in the USSR, simplistic over-generalizations are employed. Also, because of the nature of the report, there are no footnotes or cita- tions (other than general ones for sta- tistical materials in the Tables) to indi- cate where the information is from or to provide source for further, more in-depth reading.

The report consists of eight chap- ters: an introduction summarizing overall trends. problems, and policy issues, and a chapter on each of the countries (or former countries as in the case of East Germany) - Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hun- gary, Poland, Romania and the USSR. Each chapter is organized in a similar fashion: an introductory sec- tion highlighting major issues and problems, followed by sections on oil, gas, coal, nuclear, and electricity. One

of the strengths of the report is this uniformity in coverage. Although the coverage is similar for the different countries, it is not identical. The in- formation presented tends to be what is readily at hand.

Of the chapters. the one on the USSR is clearly not as successful as the others, as far less concrete in- formation is presented. Part of this is probably due to the fact that the USSR must be covered on the same number of pages as each East Euro- pean country, although it has a far larger and therefore more complex energy sector. But the chapter also suffers from several factual errors, such as the statement that there are ‘six major oil fields’ in West Siberia (this probably refers to the presence of six oil production associations in Tyu- men Oblast), and the incorrect loca- tions of the Orenburg and Astrakhan gas processing complexes in the Tatar ASSR and Kalmyk ASSR, respective- ly; each is located in the same oblast as their name.

Matthew J. Sugerc Plan Econ

Washington, DC, USA

Arcane and hidden standards

SETTING GLOBAL TELECOM- MUNICATIONS STANDARDS

by Gerd Wallenstein

Norwood, MA, USA, 1989, pp 256

In this book Gerd Wallenstein pro- vides a wealth of information on the standards-making process in telecom- munications, drawing extensively on his own experience in working with study groups of the International Tele- communication Union (ITU).

Wallenstein sees the setting of stan- dards in telecommunications as a transnational endeavour of growing significance in increasingly

information-dependent economies. Yet the processes of setting these stan- dards are often both arcane and hid- den, not only from the end-users but also from most people in the affected telecommunications industries. Wal- lenstein’s book attempts to illuminate the activities and impacts of the standards-makers, whom he describes as ‘a small, transnational subculture held together by technical expertise and a specialized language of their own making.’

The book begins with a historical overview first of the industry’s own drive to establish standards for inter- nal use, and then of the role of the ITU through its study groups, the

International Consultative Committee on Telephone and Telegraph (CCITT) and the International Consultative Committee on Radio (CCIR). These two bodies, through numerous sub- committees and working groups, have established standards for virtually all wire and wireless communications, and have extended their activity into new technologies and services such as data communications, Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN), videotext, high definition television (HDTV), etc.

Wallenstein then addresses what he calls ’ Perestroika West’: an era of tele- communications reform in the past decade which has included significant changes in the structure of the tele- communications sector in the USA, Western Europe, and Japan. He pro- vides an overview of the recommen- dations of the European Commission’s

UTILITIES POLICY October 1991 438

Green Paper, the Modified Final Judg- ment in the USA which divested AT&T of the Bell Operating Companies, and

restructuring of the telecommunica- tions sector in Germany, the UK, and Japan. He also describes the role of user organizations such as INTUG (the International Telecommunica- tions Users Group) and the Interna- tional Chamber of Commerce (ICC).

The book then examines the forma- tion and influence of new players in the standard-making game, including Bellcore and other entities in the USA and the Technical Recommendations Applications Committee (TRAC) and the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) in Europe, and the response by the ITU. Finally, he concludes with a metaphor that envisions the future of standards as a three ring megacircus involving ser- vice providers, manufacturers and vendors, and users. Governmental au- thorities will merely play the role of

spectator who ‘may applaud or hiss . they may even leave the venue in protest, yet the show will go on.’

Unfortunately, the content of the book is much more difficult to follow than the logic of the outline. While Wallenstein provides a wealth of de- tail on many topics, the presentation of the material makes it very hard to absorb. The reader is presented with examples of original materials from CCITT study groups and corporate documents which would otherwise be inaccessible to outsiders. However, the layout of the chapters with in- numerable boxes of source material and additional analysis makes the con- tent in places almost impenetrable. It would have been preferable to be more selective in the choice of original materials and to separate them from the author’s analysis either by placing them at the end of each chapter or in

Appendices. The author’s text itself could have been laid out to highlight

Book reviews

the important elements and the rela-

tionship of the various sections more clearly. The book cries out for a good editor.

This shortcoming is regrettable, as Wallenstein has tried to share a wealth not only of information but of insights based on his own experience of more than 30 years with CCITT study groups. Readers will have to be persis- tent to extract the gems from the personal insights and decode the com- plex terminology in the source mate- rials, as this was the author’s final book on telecommunications. Gerd Wallenstein died of cancer in the fall of 1990. His great enthusiasm and dedication to international telecom- munications will be missed by friends and colleagues alike.

Heather Hudson

McLaren School of Business

San Francisco, USA

Chaos and long-term planning

CHAOTIC ECONOMIC DYNA- MICS

by Richard M. Goodwin

Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1990,

PP 137

This is a very interesting book in many ways, to the general informed reader and also the macroeconomist. The subject of the dynamics of economic behaviour has fascinated many mathe- maticians as well as economists for many centuries; today it is well- accepted that mathematics, mecha- nics, dynamics and even electro- magnetism can be used as disciplines to describe, understand and even pre- dict macroeconomic behaviour.

It is presently very relevant to take stock of previous work in this field because the 1990s are likely to be turbulent years for world and national economies, reflecting on every sector in the economy. The author’s approach is also very relevant because it incorporates some of the likely fea-

UTILITIES POLICY October 1991

tures of economic behaviour in the 1990s and beyond:

0 Structural adjustment changes in national economies percolat- ing down to every sector.

0 Capitalism of the monetary sort spreading over much of the world and into every sector, even into the hitherto ‘public’

sectors.

0 Chaotic, periodic behaviour with respect to all planning and operating behaviour and per-

formance, making long-term provisions very difficult to be ‘right’ in the event.

It is particularly useful to look at some of the author’s examples, eg the corn economy in chapter 7, and traditional cycle models, both of which the author reviews, comments on and updates very well. Also the diagrams are good and well worth looking at.

For the applied economist, planner, policymaker, forecaster, etc, it would have been extremely useful if the author had built in a more practical

atmosphere. This could best have been done by a lead-in which ex- plained to the non-macroeconomic specialists, even the non-mathematical specialist, first, the history of macro- economic modeling of this type, then some historical and more modern ap- plications, followed by the chapters described as arranged more for their contributions seriatim to the authors theme(s), which at present are diffi- cult to construe. There should also have been a glossary of terms and each chapter should have had references; with more thoughts on application in the further reading.

Readable and active

However, most things are right with the book and for once the mathema- tics is not too obtrusive. The chapters are really essays to be taken separately but around a common theme(s), and they should be read as such. It is one of those few books on this kind of subject which is both readable and active, inviting the readers inquisitive- ness and curiosity throughout.

Tom W. Berrie

County Durham, UK

439