Session2.4 pp5 sašo šantl_mca approach
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Transcript of Session2.4 pp5 sašo šantl_mca approach
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5/30/2012
mag. Sašo Šantl, Saša Erlih, Tina Mazi, dr. Nataša Žvanut Smolar
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Implementation of MCA approach for optimal
Minimum Instream Flow determination with mitigation measures planning
Institute
for Water of
the Republic
of Slovenia
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Backgrounds page 2
• Hydropower is most important RES in Alpine regions • RES Directive <-> Water Framework Directive, Habitat Directive • Needs for clear and efficient tools to:
• Support decision making based on multicriteria approach • Evaluate impact on environment • Evaluate HP potential, • Evaluate mitigation measures
Aosta – 24th May 2012
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page 3
Pilot case area
Section of analysis
Existing SHPP intakes.
Possible water intake location.
Possible water release location.
At the analysed saction there are 4 impasable weirs
Aosta – 24th May 2012
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MCA – decision tree page 4
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Objective of this MCA is to
determine Residual flow
(acceptable for all stakeholders).
Alternatives are defined with
different values of residual flow.
Higher number of indicators
means more expert research
and work.
To make MCA more efficient
simplification of MCA tree can be
proceeded.
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MCA – decision tree page 5
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Residual flow
Indic
ato
r score
Determination of trends of indicators (rising falling and neutral)
Example of criteria/indicators reduction according to the main conflict of interests,
indicator causal trends and their similarity.
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MCA – decision tree page 6
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Habitat modelling (hydraulic model,
substrate, fuzzy sets and rules) -> suitabilty
(CASIMIR software)
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MCA – decision tree page 7
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Expert determination (Institute for water of RS)
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MCA – decision tree page 8
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Software for HP potential evaluation and
determination - VapIdroAste
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page 9
HP potential calculation – VapIdroAste - results
Aosta – 24th May 2012
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page 10
HP potential calculation – VapIdroAste - results
Aosta – 24th May 2012
10
100
1000
10000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Insa
lab
le p
ow
er
[kW
]
Progresive [km]
Technical potential of upper Kokra river according to the length of derivation
1000 m 2000 m 5000 m Nature value Ecological important area A < 10 km^2 or Qlow < 80l/s Reference section
Downstream Upstream
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page 11
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Feasible potential:
~ 5200 kW
~ 30.000 MWh/year
Environment:
- additional costs for mitigation
measures
- exclusion of prohibit areas by
law (reference sections by River
Basin Manag. Plan)
HP potential calculation – VapIdroAste - results
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MCA model page 12
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Model establishment and analysis – SESAMO software
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MCA model page 13
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Criteria and indicator weighting
Nature preservation
Good water status
RE
S o
bje
ctive
Efficient energy use
Increase of RES
Eco
log
y v
alu
e
2/3
1/6
1/6
3/4
1/4
Weights
3/8
3/8
1/4
9/16
7/16
Weights
WECOLOGY = 9/16 ÷ 3/4 = 0.5625 + 0.1875 * (Lnatura/Lwater body)
WRES = 1/4 ÷ 7/16 = 0.4375 - 0.1875 * (Lnatura/Lwater body)
Phytobenthos 30
Fish 30
Temperature 20
Lateral connectivity 10
Longitudinal connectivity 10
Ann. Electr. Production 100
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Results page 14
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Results for case without additional measures (fish pass planned only on intake weir)
No score for indicator
„longitudinal continuum“
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Results page 15
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Results for case with additional measures (fish pass planned for 4 barriers in derivation section)
Score for indicator
„longitudinal continuum“ not
calculated only in case
without SHP scheme
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Results page 16
Aosta – 24th May 2012
With implementation of additional
measure (assuring longitudinal
continuum along all derivation river
section) same result is assured with
app. 140 l/s less of Qres then
optimum value of Qres in the case
without additional measure.
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Conclusions page 17
• Reduction of number of indicators is efficient • less indicators means less research work and expert
subjectivity • addition work: focus on the main conflict (water), indicator
trend analysis, searching for delegate indicators
• In the MCA the weighting is the most political phase
• Further MCA decision tree prunning (inclusion of
anthropogenic influences into final representative indicators)
Aosta – 24th May 2012
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Conclusions page 18
1
2'
2''
1'''
1
2'
2''
1'''
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Example of inclusion of anthropogenic influences into representative indicator „Fish fauna“
win-win?
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5/30/2012
mag. Sašo Šantl, Saša Erlih, Tina Mazi, dr. Nataša Žvanut Smolar
Aosta – 24th May 2012
Implementation of MCA approach for optimal
Minimum Instream Flow determination with mitigation measures planning
Institute
for Water of
the Republic
of Slovenia
Thank you for your attention.