26th Annual Conference

International Association for Energy EconomicsHosted by: Czech Association for Energy Economics

NEW CHALLENGES FOR ENERGY DECISION MAKERSJune 4-7, 2003 • Hotel Dorint Don Giovanni

Prague, Czech Republic

Conference Extended an Extra Half Day: Over 275 Abstracts Received

WHO SHOULD ATTENDThis conference will attract high profile

speakers and delegates from around theworld. The opportunities to expand yourknowledge within related energy fields andto develop new contacts are vast. Below isa partial listing of who should attend this valu-able conference:

• Attorneys & Accountants• Energy Company Executives &

Managers• Energy Policy Analysts• Governmental Employees in

Energy/Resource Planning• Academics Specializing in Energy

Policy & Analysis• Electricity Pricing and

Market Analysts• Energy Consultants• Energy Company Planning

Economists• Energy Risk and Derivatives

Specialists• Energy Forecasting Specialists• Oil and Natural Gas Executives• Energy Rate Executives• Electric and Utility Supervisors• Energy Environmental Analysts• Geologists and Engineers• Environmentalists• Energy Journalists

In short, anyone with an active interestin the field of energy economics will not wantto miss this meeting.

CZAEE

IAEE

CONFERENCE SPONSORS AND PARTNERS As of 5/22/03)

CONFERENCE INFORMATION

• Program Detail• Registration Information• Hotel Information• Sponsors• Technical and Social Tours

OFFICIAL CARRIER

SESSION THEMES AND TOPICSProspects for Global Energy Markets

Energy Market Design: Experiences and Issues

Renewable Energy: Enhancing Long Term Security

Europe and the U.S.: Rethinking Energy Security

Efficiency and Regulation of Electric & Gas Distribution Companies

Sustainable Development in Energy Context

Ethics in Energy Companies

Law and Energy Economics

Oil & Gas: Frontier Issues

Solar Energy

IAEE

Past Presidents’Conference Fund

CityPlan Ltd.

Business Round TBusiness Round TBusiness Round TBusiness Round TBusiness Round Table:able:able:able:able:New OpportunitiesNew OpportunitiesNew OpportunitiesNew OpportunitiesNew Opportunities in the in the in the in the in the

European Gas SectorEuropean Gas SectorEuropean Gas SectorEuropean Gas SectorEuropean Gas Sector

26th Annual IAEE International Conference

NEW CHALLENGES FOR ENERGY DECISION MAKERS

Dear Energy Professional,

The time for the 26th Annual IAEE Conference, June 4-7, 2003, is fast approaching. Our Call for Papers was metwith an extraordinary response. We have received almost 270 abstracts, which is an all-time high. This reflects not onlyon the growing worldwide interest in the activities of our organization, but also the importance of the issues that the IAEEis concerned with, especially in today’s world. Energy economics issues are becoming key elements in the decision-making processes of world leaders; hence the subject of our conference, “New Challenges for Energy Decision Makers,”cannot be more timely.

The number of concurrent sessions had to be expanded to accommodate the large number of papers submitted. At thispoint, I would like to thank all of those who devoted the time and effort to writing and submitting papers. The Committeereviewing papers appreciated the generally high quality of papers received. Although it was not possible to accommodateall papers into concurrent sessions, the poster sessions will be organized to maximize the number of papers to be pre-sented.

Due to the overwhelming response, we have decided to extend the conference by 1/2 a day on Saturday, June 7.Whoever can survive this ordeal will be rewarded for their endurance and stamina at a “Survivor’s Party” at the oldestbrewery and pub in Prague with hearty meals, schnapps, and an ocean of the finest beer in the world.

The conference venue, Hotel Dorint Don Giovanni in Prague, is cooperating closely with IAEE Headquarters inmaking this conference take place in the most pleasant setting possible. For those who wish to stay at this hotel during theconference, the rates are from Euro 151 to 171 per room per night.

The organizing committee, the IAEE Headquarters team, and council members are working hard to make you allhappy. Please reward us with your presence at this conference.

If you have any questions or comments, please do not hesitate to contact either the organizing committee or IAEEHeadquarters.

Jan Myslivec Ivan BenesGeneral Conference Chair Program Chair

GENERAL CONFERENCECHAIR

Jan MyslivecCityPlan spol.s.r.o.

PROGRAM CHAIRIvan BenesCityPlan spol.s.r.o.

COMMITTEESeyed AlaviInstitute for International Energy Studies,IranLars BergmanHandelshogskolan i StockholmFatih BirolInternational Energy AgencyJosef BubenikCzech Energy AgencyLeonard CoburnUS Department of EnergyJean-Philipp CueilleInstitut Francais du Petrole

Edgardo CurcioAIEEPeter DaviesBP plcRobert EbelCSISGeorg ErdmanTechnical University of BerlinMarie FaganIHRDCMassimo FilippiniUniversity of Lugano and ETHHerman FranssenPetroleum Economics Ltd.Michelle Michot FossUniversity of HoustonReinhard HaasVienna University of TechnologyEinar HopeNorwegian School of Economics andBusiness AdministrationTomas HunerSeveromoravska energetika

Peter KobosRensselaer Polytechnic InstituteHoesung LeeCouncil on Energy and Environment, KoreaMichael LynchIndependent ConsultantJacek MareckiTechnical University of GdanskMonika MechurovaCZAEEArild NystadPetroManagement, ASTony OwenUniversity of New South WalesLubos PavlasPrazska teplarenskaMiroslav PiseE-ONAndre PlourdeUniversity of AlbertaRoberto Rios-HerranLegal AdvisorVirve RouhiainenEspoon Sahko Oyj

Jiri SchwarzLiberlani InstitutJohann SereinigVerbundPaul TempestBIEEFrits van OostvoornEnergy Research Foundation, Netherlands

ARRANGEMENTS CHAIRDavid WilliamsIAEE

CONFERENCEMANAGEMENT COMPANY

Administrative Management Services,Inc.

PROGRAM COMMITTEE

Ben HobbsProfessorThe Johns Hopkins UniversityJiri SchwarzPresidentLiberal Institute, Czech Republic

LUNCHEON12:30 – 2:30 pm

Don Giovanni I, II, III &Restaurant Teatro

Michelle Foss, PresidingExecutive Director, Institute for

Energy Law & EnterpriseUniversity of Houston

Formation of the Eurasian Energy Marketand Energy Charter Process

Andrei KonoplianikDeputy Secretary GeneralEnergy Charter Secretariat

CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 1 TO 52:30 – 4:00 pm

1 ENERGY PROSPECTS IN THELONGER TERM

2 ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORMS3 ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT: FROM THEORYTO PRACTICE

4 TAXATION ISSUES IN THEENERGY SECTOR

5 BUSINESS ROUND TABLE: NEWOPPORTUNITIES IN THEEUROPEAN GAS SECTOR

COFFEE BREAK4:00 – 4:30 pm

Foyer 1 & Gallery

POSTER SESSION 1

TECHNOLOGY ISSUES IN ENERGYPRODUCTION AND USE

4:00 – 5:00 pmBoard Room 1

CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 6 TO 104:30 – 6:00 pm

6 WORLD OIL MARKETS: THE BIGPICTURE

7 MARKET POWER VERSUSCOMPETITION IN LIBERALIZEDENERGY MARKETS

8 RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES:ISSUES AND PROSPECTS

9 ENERGY CONSERVATION ANDEFFICIENCY

10 ENERGY AND DEMOCRACY

Wednesday, June 4IAEE COUNCIL MEETING

(By Invitation)8:00 am – 5:00 pm

Donna Anna

IAEE COUNCIL LUNCH (By Invitation)

12:00 noon – 1:00 pmRestaurant Teatro

REGISTRATION12:00 noon – 7:00 pm

Registration Desk – Don GiovanniConference Center – 2nd Floor

OPENING RECEPTION6:00 – 8:00 pm

Klub LávkaAddress: Novotneho lávka 1, Prague 1Bus Transportation Will Be Provided

IAEE COUNCIL DINNER (By Invitation)

8:00 – 10:00 pmParnas Restaurant

Thursday, June 5REGISTRATION7:00 am – 7:00 pm

Registration Desk – Don GiovanniConference Center – 2nd Floor

IRAN CONFERENCE PLANNINGMEETING

(By Invitation)7:30 – 8:30 amLeporello Room

IAEE AFFILIATE LEADERS MEETING (By Invitation)

7:30 – 8:30 amDonna Anna Room

WELCOME & INTRODUCTION8:30 – 8:40 am

Don Giovanni I, II, IIIMichelle FossExecutive Director, Institute for

Energy Law & EnterpriseUniversity of HoustonIAEE PresidentJan MyslivecGeneral ManagerCityPlan spol. S r.o.Prague General Conference Chairman

KEYNOTE ADDRESS8:40 – 9:00 am

Cyril SvobodaDeputy Prime Minister and Minister of

Foreign AffairsGovernment of the Czech Republic

PROSPECTS FOR GLOBALENERGY MARKETS

9:00 – 10:30 amDon Giovanni I, II, III

Herman Franssen, PresidingDirectorPetroleum Economics Ltd.

PanelMatthew R. SimmonsPresidentSimmons & Company InternationalHerman FranssenDirectorPetroleum Economics Ltd.Fatih BirolChief Economist – Head, Economic

Analysis DivisionInternational Energy AgencyFadhil ChalabiExecutive DirectorThe Centre for Global Energy Studies

COFFEE BREAK10:30 – 11:00 amFoyer 1 & Gallery

DUAL PLENARY SESSIONS11:00 am – 12:30 pm

A. EUROPE AND THE U.S.: RETHINK-ING ENERGY SECURITY

Zerlina, Elvira, Anna RoomsRobert Ebel, PresidingDirector, Energy ProgramsCenter for Strategic & International Studies

PanelArnold B. BakerChief EconomistSandia National LaboratoriesJohannes MatersAdviser, Directorate-General for Energy &

TransportEuropean CommissionShirley J. NeffSenior AdvisorGoldwyn International Strategies

B. ENERGY MARKET DESIGN:EXPERIENCES AND ISSUES

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsEinar Hope, PresidingProfessor of Energy EconomicsNorwegian School of Economics and

Business AdministrationPanel

Lars BergmannProfessorStockholm School of EconomicsDavid NewberyDirector, Department of Applied EconomicsUniversity of Cambridge

LUNCH12:30 – 2:30 pm

Don Giovanni I, II, III &Restaurant Teatro

Michelle Foss, PresidingExecutive Director, Institute for

Energy Law & EnterpriseUniversity of Houston

Solar Energy: Value and Cost on aWarming Planet

Jeremy LeggettChief ExecutiveSolar Century

DUAL PLENARY SESSIONS2:30 - 4:00 pm

A. ETHICS IN ENERGY COMPANIES

Zerlina, Elvira, Anna RoomsIvan Benes, PresidingDirector, Institute for Economics

Transportation & EnergyCityPlan LtdMary-Ellen BoyleAssistant Professor of ManagementClark UniversityPeter A. DaviesVP & Chief EconomistBP Plc.John HoldingManager-Business Planning & Performance

AnalysisChevronTexaco Nigeria Ltd.Samuel A. Van VactorPresidentEconomic Insight, Inc.

B. RENEWABLE ENERGY: ENHANC-ING LONG TERM SECURITY

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsTony Owen, PresidingProfessorThe University of New South Wales

Nanotechnology for Energy Conversion,Storage and Utilization

Robert J. EaganVP, Energy, Information & Infrastructure

SuretySandia National Laboratories

The Economics of Wind PowerPoul Erik MorthorstRiso National Laboratory

Growiung Markets for Renewable EnergyJohn MogfordGroup VP, Renewables & AlternativesBP plc.

Hedging Our Bets: New Technologies in aWorld of Uncertainty

Rick SellersHead, Renewable Energy UnitInternational Energy Agency

RECEPTION6:30 – 7:30 pm

Don Giovanni Conference CentreFoyer

DINNER7:30 – 10:30 pm

Don Giovanni I, II, III &Restaurant Teatro

Michelle Foss, PresidingExecutive Director, Institute for

Energy Law & EnterpriseUniversity of Houston

E.ON’s Investment Strategy in theCzech Republic

Michael FehnChairmanE.ON Czech Holding

Friday, June 6REGISTRATION7:00 am – 6:30 pm

Registration Desk – Don GiovanniConference Center – 2nd Floor

TAIWAN CONFERENCE PLANNINGMEETING

(By Invitation)7:30 – 9:00 amLeporello Room

ENERGY JOURNAL BOARD OFEDITORS MEETING

(By Invitation)7:30 – 9:00 am

Board Room 9 - 3rd Floor

DUAL PLENARY SESSIONS9:00 – 10:30 am

A. EFFICIENCY AND REGULATIONOF ELECTRICITY AND GASDISTRIBUTION COMPANIES

Zerlina, Elvira, Anna RoomsMassimo Filippini, PresidingProfessor of Public EconomicsUniversity of Lugano & ETH Zurich

PanelBenchmarking and Regulation in the

Energy Industries: A General OverviewTooraj JamasbDepartment of Applied EconomicsUniversity of Cambridge

Benchmarking and Regulation:Pitfalls and Issues in Electricity RegulationEinar HopeProfessor of Energy EconomicsNorwegian School of Economics & Business

Administration

Regulation and Measuring Cost Efficiencywith Panel Data Models: Application to

Electricity Distribution UtilitiesMehdi FarsiMassimo FilippiniCentre for Energy Policy & Economics and

University of Lugano

B. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INENERGY CONTEXT

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsHoesung Lee, PresidingPresidentCouncil on Energy and Environment Korea

PanelSang-Gon LeePresidentKorea Energy Economics Institute, South

KoreaKen KoyamaManaging DirectorInstitute of Energy Economics, JapanMohan MunasingheHonorary Chief Energy Advisor,

Government of Sri Lanka & Chairman,Munasinghe Institute for Development

Michael GrubbVisiting Professor, ICCETImperial College, LondonJyoti Prasad PainulySenior Energy PlannerRISO National Laboratory

COFFEE BREAK10:30 – 11:00 amFoyer 1 & Gallery

POSTER SESSION 2

ENERGY EFFICIENCY ANDSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

10:30 – 11:30 amBoard Room 1

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (11 TO 15)11:00 AM – 12:30 PM

11. CAPACITY ISSUES INELECTRICITY AND NATURALGAS MARKETS

12. NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN THETRANSPORTATION SECTOR

13. ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT AROUND THEWORLD

14. PRICE FORMATION AND DISCOV-ERY IN ENERGY MARKETS

15. LONG-TERM GAS SUPPLYSECURITY FOR AN ENLARGEDEUROPE

LUNCH12:30 – 1:30 pm

Restaurant TeatroNetwork With Your IAEE Colleagues

CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 26 TO 301:30 – 3:00 pm

26. APPROACHES TO ELECTRICITYAND NATURAL GAS REGULATION

27. EUROPE LOOKS EAST: THE EUAND ENERGY IN EASTERNEUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

28. SOME CONSEQUENCES OFLIVING IN A CARBONCONSTRAINED WORLD

29. THE PROFITABILITY OF ENERGYFIRMS: THEORY ANDMEASUREMENT

30. PRICING ISSUES IN ENERGYMARKETS

COFFEE BREAK3:00 – 3:30 pm

Foyer 1 & Gallery

CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 31 TO 353:30 – 5:00 pm

31. INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITYMARKETS

32. ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS33. MORE CONSEQUENCES OF

LIVING IN A CARBONCONSTRAINED WORLD

34. ISSUES AFFECTING MARKETSFOR CRUDE OIL AND REFINEDPRODUCTS

35. BACK TO THE FUTURE?: THESECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY

CLOSING REMARKS5:00 – 5:20 pm

Don Giovanni I, II, IIIMichelle FossExecutive Director, Institute for Energy Law

& EnterpriseUniversity of HoustonJan MyslivecGeneral ManagerCityPlan spol. S r.o.

FAREWELL / SURVIVAL PARTY8:00 pm – 12:00 midnight

U FlekuKremencova 11, Prague 1

COFFEE BREAK4:00 – 4:30 pm

Foyer 1 & Gallery

POSTER SESSION 3

FOCUS ON ISSUES IN OIL AND GASMARKETS

4:00 – 5:00 pmBoard Room 1

EUROPEAN AFFILIATE LEADERSMEETING

4:30 – 6:00 pmBoard Room 9 – 3rd Floor

CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 16 TO 204:30 – 6:00 pm

16. PRICE VOLATILITY IN ENERGYMARKETS: STRUCTURE ANDCONSEQUENCES

17. THE STRUCTURE OF ENERGY(DE)REGULATION

18. ELECTRICITY IN THE LONG RUN:ALTERNATIVE GENERATIONTECHNOLOGIES

19. PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSES OFENERGY FIRMS

20. MARKET-BASED APPROACHESTO ENVIRONMENTAL REGULA-TION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

IAEE GENERAL MEMBERSHIPMEETING

6:00 – 6:30 pmLeporello Room

OFF-SITE RECEPTION/DINNER7:00 – 10:00 pm

Municipal HouseAddress: Namesti republiky 5, Prague 1

Bus Transportation Will Be Provided

Saturday, June 7REGISTRATION7:00 am – 6:00 pm

Registration Desk – Don GiovanniConference Center – 2nd Floor

CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 21 TO 259:00 – 10:30 am

21. THE SECURITY OF ENERGYSUPPLIES ANDINFRASTRUCTURE

22. ENERGY POLICY ISSUES23. TECHNOLOGY AND ENERGY

EFFICIENCY24. ELECTRICITY MARKET

LIBERALIZATION: THEEUROPEAN EXPERIENCE

25. SUPPLY-SIDE ISSUES IN CRUDEOIL AND NATURAL GASMARKETS

COFFEE BREAK10:30 – 11:00 amFoyer 1 & Gallery

POSTER SESSION 4

DEVELOPMENTS IN ELECTRICITYMARKETS

10:30 – 11:30 amBoard Room 1

DUAL PLENARY SESSIONS11:00 am – 12:30 pm

A. LAW AND ENERGY ECONOMICS

Don Giovanni I, II, IIIRoberto Rios-Herran, PresidingLegal Advisor

PanelNils von Hinten-ReedDirectorCapAnalysis (Europe)Roberto Rios-HerranLegal AdvisorCharles McPhersonSenior Adviser, Oil, Gas & ChemicalsWorld Bank GroupAlfred John BoulosInternational Advisor & CounselBoulos International

B. OIL & GAS: FRONTIER ISSUES

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsJean-Philippe Cueille, PresidingProfessorIFP

andVratislav Ludvik, PresidingPrincipalONYX

PanelJean-Pierre FavennecDirecteur, Centre Econ. & GestionIFP-ENSPMJohn R. BrodmanDeputy Assistant Secretary for International

Energy PolicyUS. Department of EnergyRay LeonardVice President, ExplorationYUKUS Oil CorporationAdam SieminskiDirector & Global Energy StrategistDeutsche Bank AG

CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 1 TO 5Thursday, June 5

2:30 - 4:00 pm1 ENERGY PROSPECTS IN THE LONGER

TERMZerlina Room

Edgardo Curcio, PresidingPresidentAIEE

U.S. National Energy Policy: Is the Gulf Widening?Daniel McGroartyWhite House Writers GroupMarvin J. HorowitzDemand Research

Long Term Scenarios for Energy MarketsA.J.G. MandersM. MulderCPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Iraq: The Last Great Oil Prize: An Oil IndustryPerspective

Mamdouh G. SalamehDirectorOil Market Consultancy Service

Development of World Energy Prices Model, WEPMYuko HoshinoYutaka NagataNorihisa SakuraiSocio-Economic Research CenterCentral Research Institute of Electric Power Industry

(CRIEPI)

2 ELECTRICITY MARKET REFORMSDonna Elvira Room

Jose Gonzalez Santalo, PresidingDirector de Sistemas MecanicosInstitute de Investigaciones Elect.

Development of a Competitive Electricity Market inIndonesia

Andreas KornPeter PintzFichtner GmbH & Co.

Past, Present and Future of the Latin-AmericanElectricity Markets

Isaac Dyner R.Universidad Nacional de ColombiaSantiago ArangoBergen UniversityErik LarsenCase Business School

Future of the Lithuanian District Heating Sector:Number of CHP’s or Decentralisation?

Ramunas GatautisLithuanian Energy Institute

The Feasibility of European Electric Reforms, A New-Institutional Economics Evaluation

Yannick PerezATOMUniversité Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne

3 ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT: FROM THEORY TOPRACTICE

Donna Anna RoomReinhard Haas, PresidingEnergy Economics GroupVienna University of TechnologyThe Energy Economic Benefit of Integrated Development

Planning PoliciesElizabeth MarshallArea Development ManagerHighland Council, Scotland

The Energy Sector in the Context of SustainableDevelopment – A Review of Concepts

Regina EichJurgen-Friedrich HakeResearch Centre Juelich, Germany

The Role of Regions in the Framework of SustainableEnergy Policies and Programs

Marcello AntinucciPaola PeriniECUBA srl, Bologna, ItalyValentinas KlevasLithuanian Energy Institute

Brazilian Energy Prospects Seeking the SustainableDevelopment

Ildo Luis SauerLuiz Claudio Ribeiro GalvãoMiguel Edgar Morales UdaetaAndré Luiz Veiga GimenesCláudio Elias CarvalhoGEPEAUniversidade de São Paulo, Brazil

4 TAXATION ISSUES IN THE ENERGY SECTORLeporello Room

Peter A. Davies, PresidingVP & Chief EconomistBP plc.

Taxation of Oil Companies Having Outside OptionsTrond OlsenNorwegian School of Economics & Bus. Admin.Petter OsmundsenStavanger University College

A Conflict of Interests in Electricity Taxation?Bente HalvorsenRuna NesbakkenStatistics NorwayThe Impact of Oil Taxation on Fields’ Profitability in theUK North Sea – A Comparison with Five International

Representative RegimesCarole NakhleDavid HawdonUniversity of SurreyDownstream Energy Taxation: Where Does Oil Stand?

Nadir GuererAssistant to the Director of Research DivisionOPEC

5 BUSINESS ROUND TABLE: NEW OPPORTU-NITIES IN THE EUROPEAN GAS SECTOR

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsTor Vesterhus, PresidingCEOGasOracle AS

Conference delegates are invited to join an open roundtable discussion on new business opportunities withinthe European gas sector in light of both the liberaliza-tion process and the European enlargement towardsthe east.

CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 6 TO 10Thursday, June 5

4:30 – 6:00 pm6 WORLD OIL MARKETS: THE BIG PICTURE

Zerlina RoomJohn Holding, PresidingManager-Business Planning & Performance AnalysisChevronTexaco Nigeria Ltd.

The World Oil Economy 30 Years After the First OilPrice Shock

Ferdinand E. BanksProfessorUppsala University

Geopolitics and the Oil Market: Post Cold War EraMohammad Sadegh MemarianNational Iranian Oil Company

Regionalization of the Global Oil and the Nation StateAlexandre Babak HedjaziRegional & International DevelopmentUCLA

Oil Companies and Energy Security in ChinaAdam Louis ShrierStrategic AdvisorGlobal Development Opportunities, LLC

7 MARKET POWER VERSUS COMPETITION INLIBERALIZED ENERGY MARKETS

Donna Elvira RoomBo Andersson, PresidingHead of AnalysisGraninge Electricity TradingLiberalisation of Integrated Energy Markets and Market

Power IssuesHenrik Klinge JacobsenPeter FristrupRisø National LaboratoryJesper MunksgaardAnders LarsenAKF, Danish Institute of Local Government Studies

The More Co-operation, The More Competition?Fieke RijkersAdrian WalsEnergy Research Centre of the NetherlandsBenjamin F. HobbsThe Johns Hopkins University

The Question of Market Power In RestructuredElectricity Markets

Sophie MeritetC.G.E.M.P.Université Paris IX – Dauphine

Competition and Prices on a Multinational Market forElectricity: The Case of the Nordic Countries

Eirik S. AmundsenUniversity of BergenLars BergmanStockholm School of EconomicsCombining Transmission and Energy Markets Mitigates

Market PowerKarsten NeuhoffFaculty of Economics and PoliticsUniversity of Cambridge

8 RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES: ISSUESAND PROSPECTS

Donna Anna RoomMorgan Bazilian, PresidingDepartment Head - Sustainable Energy ServicesSustainable Energy IrelandWind Energy – Present Status – Outlook – Energy System

AnalysisH.-J. WagnerD. GuerzenichR. TryfonidouEnergy Systems and EconomicsUniversity of Bochum, Germany

Rent of Hydropower Generation in SwitzerlandSilvia BanfiAdrian MüllerFederal Institute of Technology, WECMassimo FilippiniUniversity of Lugano

Prospects and Potential for Cost Reductions in PVSystems

Daniele PoponiDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Bari, ItalyElectric Power Leveler by Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cell

Co-generation System and its Economic ImplicationYutaka YonedaShigeru YasukawaElectrical Engineering & ElectronicsKanazawa Institute of Technology

9 ENERGY CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCYLeporello Room

Fridtjof Unander, PresidingSenior AnalystInternational Energy Agency

A Consistent Approach to the Computation of an End-use Energy Efficiency Indicator: A Demonstration of

Industrial Sector Time-series Data in TaiwanYunchang Jeffery BorCheng-Shu LinChung-Hua Institution for Economic Research

Demand Curves for Electricity Efficiency in OECDCountries

Aviel VerbruggenProfessorUniversity of Antwerp

Consequences of the U.S. Commercial Sector EnergyEfficiency Regime

Marvin J. HorowitzPresidentDemand ResearchCost-Benefit Analysis on Energy Conservation Measures

in Energy-Intensive Industries of TaiwanChi-Yuan LiangResearch Fellow, The Institute of EconomicsAcademia Sinica

10 ENERGY AND DEMOCRACYDon Ottavio + Masetto Rooms

ParticipantsMichelle FossUniversity of HoustonKevin WarrU.S. Agency for International DevelopmentJames B. SullivanU.S. Agency for International Development

This session will be facilitated discussion on issues asso-ciated with international technical and development as-sistance using country case studies. IAEE delegates withresearch and experience in this arena are invited to par-ticipate.

CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 11 TO 15Friday, June 6

11:00 am – 12:30 pm11 CAPACITY ISSUES IN ELECTRICITY AND

NATURAL GAS MARKETSZerlina Room

Kjell Sunnivag, PresidingResearch CoordinatorSNFOptimisation Model for Rationing Efficient Allocation of

Capacity in a Natural Gas Transportation NetworkHans Jorgen DahlGassco ASAsgeir TomasgardNorwegian University of Science & TechnologyFrode RømoSINTEF Industrial Management

Electric Transmission and Rents in EuropeAnthony BaezaEconomics DepartmentUniversité Paris IX – Dauphine

Transmission Congestion RisksTarjei KristiansenDepartment of Electrical Power EngineeringNorwegian University of Science and Technology

Mandatory Capacity Margins – Good Idea or Not?Robert L. BorlickSenior AdvisorHenwood Energy ServicesThe Role of Excess Capacities for Effective Competition

in Electricity MarketsReinhard HaasEnergy Economics GroupVienna University of Technology

12 NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN THE TRANSPOR-TATION SECTOR

Donna Elvira RoomRick Sellers, PresidingHead, Renewable Energy UnitInternational Energy Agency

Analysis of the Impact of Technological Innovation toReduce CO2 Emission for Global Environment

Toshihiko NakataTetsuya TogasakiShuichi AshinaTohoku University

Gas-to-Liquid Technologies: Recent Advances,Economics, Prospects

Isaac RahmimEnergy Consulting PracticeE-MetaVenture, Inc.

Conventional Versus Innovative Technologies in theTransportation Sector: External Costs and Benefits

Amy Myers JaffeKenneth B. Medlock IIIRonald SoligoRice UniversityAn Optimum Fuel Consumption Model for the Transport

of Cargos by Road VehiclesMahmoud SaffarzadehTarbiat Modares UniversityAbdlreza Rezaee-ArjroodyRoad & Transportation Research & Training Center

13 ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOP-MENT AROUND THE WORLD

Leporello RoomFranz Meister, PresidingStaff MemberUmweltbundesamt/Federal Environment Agency

California’s Renewables Portfolio Standard: Can ItRecharge a Failed Effort?

Asbjorn MoseidjordChevronTexaco Professor of Energy & ResourcesSaint Mary’s College of CaliforniaRenewable Energy in Iran: Challenges and Opportuni-

ties for Sustainable DevelopmentMadjid AbbaspourSharif University of TechnologyHead of Iranian Association for Energy EconomicsFarideh AtabiIslamic Azad UniversityIranian Association for Energy Economics

Sustainable Local Economy in Communities inMichoacan

Juan Jose Jardón UrrietaProfessor of FinanceUniversidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo

Sustainable Development Problems of Latvian EnergySector

K. MikelsonsLatvian Power Company “Latvenergo”V. ZebergsN. ZeltinsLatvian Academy of Science

14 PRICE FORMATION AND DISCOVERY INENERGY MARKETS

Donna Anna RoomPaul Horsnell, PresidingHead of Energy ResearchJP Morgan plcRegulation, Competition and Price Formation in the UK

Gas IndustryPhilip WrightIan RutledgeSchool of ManagementUniversity of Sheffield

Investment Costs and Equilibrium Energy Prices inEurope

Geoff FrewerEconomistEuropean Investment Bank

El-Gas Deregulation – Price Convergence?Frank AschePetter OsmundsenRagnar TveterasStavanger University CollegeAtle GuttormsenAgricultural University of Norway

A VAR Analysis of the Energy Prices in aLiberalised Market

Paula FerreiraMadalena AraújoUniversity of Minho , PortugalIsabel SoaresUniversity of Porto, Portugal

Price Discovery in Gas Market, A Case of UKSharon LinMichael TamvakisCASS Business School, London

15 LONG-TERM GAS SUPPLY SECURITY FORAN ENLARGED EUROPE

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsFrits van Oostvoorn, PresidingManager, European StudiesEnergy Research Centre of the NetherlandsFuture Supply in a Liberalized European Gas Market –

The Emergence of New SuppliersEirik Lund SagenSenior Executive OfficerStatistics Norway Research DepartmentLong Term Gas Supply for Filling the “Supply Gap” in

Europe Against Affordable PricesFrits van OostvoornMaroeska BootsEnergy Research Centre of the Netherlands

The Effect of Liberalisation of Gas Markets on Trade,Contracting and Supply Sector

Sandro FurlanCoordinator, Energy & Environment DepartmentEni Corporate University

The Supply of Natural Gas From Russia: AnIntertemporal Market Analysis

Jeroen de JoodeCPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

CONCURRENT SESSIONS - 16 TO 20Friday, June 64:30 - 6:00 pm

16 PRICE VOLATILLITY IN ENERGY MAR-KETS: STRUCTURE AND CONSEQUENCES

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsVirve Rouhiainen, PresidingRisk ManagerExpoon Sahko Oyi

Exploring the Impact of Price Volatility on EnergyMarkets

Mark FinleySenior EconomistBP America Inc

Does the Black-Scholes Formula Work for ElectricityMarkets? A Nonparametric Approach

Erik HjalmarssonDepartment of EconomicsYale University

Coping with Oil Price VolatilityMichael C. LynchEnergy ConsultantMITOil Price Volatility and OPEC Compliance: A Challenge

for OPEC Policy MakersMohammad MazraatiInstitute for International Energy Studies, IranK. AbbasiShayegan Energy and Economy Consultants

17 THE STRUCTURE OF ENERGY(DE)REGULATION

Donna Elvira RoomShirley J. Neff, PresidingSenior AdvisorGoldwyn International StrategiesRestructuring the Regulatory Framework in Developing

CountriesGarry E. VollansSenior ConsultantFMP Flaman Management Partners Ltd.

Optimal Power Reform Design: Experience fromLiberalization

Luciano LosekannUniversidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroJoanne EvansUniversity of Hull

Weighing Ways of Keeping the Energy BalanceHamilcar KnopsInternational Institute of Energy LawLeiden University

Efficiency and Equity in a Deregulated ElectricityMarket

Youngho ChangAssistant Professor, Dept. of EconomicsNational University of SingaporeRegulatory Exigencies of Electricity Reform in AustraliaDeepak SharmaAssociate ProfessorUniversity of Technology, Sydney

18 ELECTRICITY IN THE LONG RUN:ALTERNATIVE GENERATON TECHNOLO-GIES

Donna Anna RoomJohn W. Jimison, PresidingExecutive DirectorU.S. Combined Heat & Power Association

Study on the Economic Aspects and Policy Options ofClean Coal Technologies

Toshihiko NakataRyo KinugasaManagement of Science and TechnologyTohoku University

CO2 Emission Impacts of Large Penetration ofDistributed Generation Systems in Japan

Hiroshi AsanoMasahito TakahashiEi-ichi ImamuraSenior Research ScientistCentral Research Institute of Electric Power Industry

(CRIEPI)Socio-Economic Evaluation of Long Term Energy

Options: The Case of FusionGianCarlo TosatoSocio-Economic StudiesEuropean Fusion Development Agreement

Gas Fired Power Plant Investments with CO2 CaptureStein-Erik FletenThomas DobbeSjur SigmoNorwegian University of Science & Technology

Technology Adoption and Sustainable Development inLiberalised Electricity Markets: A Panel Data Study for

Six OECD CountriesReinhard MadlenerCEPE, ETH-Zentrum WEC CReza FathollahzadehDeepak SharmaUniversity of Technology, Sydney

19 PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSES OF ENERGYFIRMS

Leporello RoomLubos Pavlas, PresidingChairman & CEOPrazska Teplarenska A.S.

Risk Ranking and Selection of Licensed SubjectsMartin BenesOldrich StarýCzech Technical University in Prague

Organizational Forms, Competences and IndustrialStrategies: The Relations Between Manufacturers and

Operators in the European Wind Energy SectorPierre TaillantCREDEN-LASERUniversity of Montpellier I

Multi-Sector Comparison of Productive Efficiency inTime Series: An Application of Data EnvelopmentAnalysis to Japanese Electric Power Utilities in the

1990sMika K. GotoHiroko TakahashiSocio-Economic Research CenterCentral Research Institute of Electric Power Industry

(CRIEPI)

Benchmarking for Government Owned Utilities inEmerging Markets

Shakeb AfsahMary C. WebsterInternational Resources Group

20 MARKET-BASED APPROACHES TOENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION IN THEENERGY SECTOR

Zerlina RoomEliska Kotikova, PresidingProject ManagerCityPlan Ltd.

Inefficiency and Price Distortion in the InternationalEmissions Trading Market

Akira MaedaAssistant ProfessorKeio University

Market Based Environmental Regulation in theRestructured Australian Electricity Industry

Iain F. MacGillKarel NollesHugh OuthredThe University of New South Wales

Assessing Voluntary Commitments:Monitoring is Not Enough!

Manuel FrondelChristoph BöhringerZEW – Centre for European Economic Research

The Potential for Creating Pollution Credits in a U.S.Statewide “Public Benefits” Energy Efficiency Program

David SumiKarl HauskerPA Consulting GroupPat MeierState of Wisconsin

CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 21 TO 25Saturday, June 79:00 - 10:30 am

21 THE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES ANDINFRASTRUCTURE

Zerlina RoomCarlo Andrea Bollino, PresidingUniversita Degli Studi di Perugia

How Secure is Supply in a Liberalised EuropeanElectricity Market?

Mark LijesenArie ten CateCPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Energy Security and Regional Cooperation in AsiaKen KoyamaGeneral Manager, Energy Strategy DepartmentInstitute of Energy Economics, Japan

Improving Energy Infrastructure Security: Costs andConsequences

Alex FarrellUniversity of California BerkeleyHisham ZerriffiCarnegie Mellon University

Held Hostage: Arms and InfrastructureSamuel A. Van VactorPresidentEconomic Insight, Inc..

22 ENERGY POLICY ISSUESDonna Elvira Room

Leonard L. Coburn, PresidingDirector, Russian & Eurasian AffairsU.S. Department of Energy

The New Italian Energy Policy: A Forecast by theCEPRIG Model

Enzo Di GiulioStefania MigliavaccaEni Corporate UniversityAlessandro VaglioUniversity of BergamoStructural Change in Energy Use and Its Implications onThe Effectiveness of Energy Policy: The Case of TaiwanShih-Mo LinSu-Pin LiuChung Yuan Christian University, Taiwan

Building Better Energy Markets: What Next?Boyko NitzovSenior Investment ExpertThe Energy Charter SecretariatInteractions Between the Green Certificate and Electric

Power Markets in a Non-Competitive GovernmentRegulated Environment

E. Ariel BergmannEconomics DepartmentUniversity of Glasgow

23 TECHNOLOGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCYDonna Anna Room

Miroslav Pise, PresidingManaging DirectorEON Bohemia S.r.o.

Financing Micro Generation: Some Options for theFuture

Jim WatsonResearch FellowUniversity of Sussex

Increasing the Eco-Efficiency and Economy of anEnergy System: A Multiobjective Optimization ApproachCarlos E. Escobar-ToledoProfessor, Faculty of ChemistryNational University of MexicoSteps Towards a 2000 Watt/cap Society – A White Paper

on Research and Development of Energy-efficientTechnologies and Entrepreneurial Innovations

Eberhard JochemCEPE, ETH ZürichD. FavratEPFLK. HungerbühlerPh. Rudolph v. RohrD. SprengETHZA. WokaunPSIM. ZimmermannEMPARenewable Energy Financing; What Can We Learn From

Experience?Jyoti Prasad PainulyRiso National LaboratoryNorbert WohlgemuthUniversity of Klagenfurt

24 ELECTRICITY MARKET LIBERALIZATION:THE EUROPEAN EXPERIENCE

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsGeorg Erdmann, PresidingFull ProfessorTU Berlin

Competition in the Baltic Electricity MarketsArvydas GalinisLithuanian Energy InstituteJens HauchThomas Engberg PedersenCOWI A/SHans RavnElkraft System a.m.b.a.

Liberalisation of the European Electricity Markets –International Electricity Trade in Europe from a German

PerspectiveClemens CremerHarald BradkeFraunhofer Institute Systems & Innovation Research

Integrating Intermittent Energy Sources in LiberalizedElectricity Markets: From Technical Costs to Economic

Penalties as a Result of Market RulesPhilippe MenanteauDominique FinonMarie-Laure LamyIEPE/CNRSUniversity of Grenoble, France

The Liberalization of the European ElectricityMarket(s): An Unstrurctured Restructuring Process

Rudi HakvoortFrancois BoisseleauDelft University of Technology

25 SUPPLY-SIDE ISSUES IN CRUDE OIL ANDNATURAL GAS MARKETS

Leporello RoomRonald Soligo, PresidingProfessor of EconomicsRice University

Resource Scarcity: Evidence from Values of Oil andNatural Gas Reserves

M.A. AdelmanMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyG.C. WatkinsUniversity of Aberdeen

Optimising Oil and Gas Recovery from a MatureProvince: The Case of the UKCS

Alex KempLinda StephenSola KasimUniversity of AberdeenOptimization of Gas Supply in Iran (Projection vs. Facts)Shahla KhaleghiEnergy EconomistNational Iranian Gas CompanyWorld Oil Production Peak – A Supply-Side Perspective

Roger BentleyThe University of ReadingMichael R. SmithEnergyFiles Limited

CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 26 TO 30Saturday, June 71:30 – 3:00 pm

26 APPROACHES TO ELECTRICITY ANDNATURAL GAS REGULATION

Zerlina RoomFereidoon P. Sioshansi, PresidingPresidentMenlo Energy EconomicsTime-of-Use Electricity Pricing Should Be Mandated As

A Public GoodJeffrey M. JakubiakAssociate AttorneyTroutman Sanders LLP

Deregulation and Monopoly Profits in New Zealand’sGas and Electricity Sectors

Geoff BertramSchool of Economics & FinanceVictoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Dutch Price and Quality Regulation SystemVirendra AjodhiaDelft University of TechnologyBart FrankenKEMA ConsultingCarel van der LippeDutch Energy Regulator

Establishment of Regulatory Price Controls andBenchmarking Electricity Networks in the Republic of

SloveniaIrena GlavicMajda ParipovicBojan KuzmicEnergy Agency of the Republic of SloveniaKonstantin PetrovGian Carlo ScarsiKEMA ConsultingStefan IvanjkoEIMV

27 EUROPE LOOKS EAST: THE EU ANDENERGY IN EASTERN EUROPE ANDCENTRAL ASIA

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsRobert E. Borgstrom, PresidingIndependent Consultant

East European Natural Gas Markets: Opening toCompetition

Margarita PirovskaGraduate StudentUniversité Paris IX – Dauphine

EU Energy Policy and Future European EnergyMarkets: Consequences for the Central and East

European StatesMargarita M. BalmacedaDavis Center for Russian & Eurasian StudiesHarvard University

Uzbekistan – An Expanding and Capital-HungryEconomy: Specific Inter-Related Opportunities in

Energy, IT and AgricultureMalika SaidkhodjaevaAssociate ProfessorTashkent State Technical University

Building the Euro-Asian Energy BridgePaul TempestExecutive DirectorWindsor Energy Group

28 SOME CONSEQUENCES OF LIVING IN ACARBON-CONSTRAINED WORLD

Donna Anna RoomSteffen Sacharowitz, PresidingTU Berlin

Will European Industry Escape the Kyoto Protocol?A.J.G. MandersJohannes BollenHenri de GrootPaul TangHerman VolleberghCees WithagenCPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy AnalysisThe Kyoto Protocol and the Japanese Power CompaniesHiroyuki OkamotoProfessor, College of International RelationsNihon University

Allocation of Refinery CO2 Emissions to Oil FinishedProducts: A New Approach

Denis BabusiauxAxel PierruInstitut Français du PétroleNuclear Power Position in Future Energy Policy, Japan

– Roles of Government and Electric Power Companies inPrivate Sector

Taizo HayashiFaculty of Social and Environmental StudiesFukuoka Institute of Technology

29 THE PROFITABILITY OF ENERGY FIRMS:THEORY AND MEASUREMENT

Donna Elvira RoomPeter K. Nance, PresidingPrincipalTeknecon Energy Risk Advisors LLC

Integration or Atomisation?Robert ArnottResearch FellowOxford Institute for Energy Studies

Valuation of International Integrated Oil Companies:The Use of Financial and Operational Indicators

Ole GjolbergAgricultural University of NorwayThore JohnsenNorwegian School of Economics & Bus. Admin.Klaus MohnStatoil ASAPetter OsmundsenStavanger University College

Current Performances of the Firm and FinancialMarkets’ Evaluations: Does the Ownership Matter in

the Electricity Sector?Augusto NinniElisabetta LinaresIEFEBocconi University, Italy

Liberalization of Energy Markets and CompanyStrategies: A Diagnosis on the European Gas Market

Cécile BazartC.R.E.D.E.N.Université Montpellier 1

30 PRICING ISSUES IN ENERGY MARKETSLeporello Room

G. Campbell Watkins, PresidingProfessorUniversity of Aberdeen

Effective or Ineffective?: Examination of the SaudiPricing Policy in the Atlantic Europe Between 1988 and

2001Kazushi UemuraProfessor of EconomicsSophia UniversityEvaluating the Effects of Crossholdings and Information

on Wholesale Energy PricesAugusto Rupérez MicolaDerek W. BunnLondon Business School

Asian Premium of Crude Oil and Importance onPreparation of Oil Market in Northeast Asia

Yoshiki OgawaGeneral Manager, 2nd Research Dept.Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Energy Price Distortions in IranAlimorad SharifiIsfahan UniversityMehdi SadeghiImam Sadiq University

Optimal Pricing of Petroleum With Budget Constraintand Externality

Chung-Huang HuangNational Tsing Hua UniversityHsing-Hua LinChing-Yun Institute of TechnologyHan-Pang SuNational Taiwan University

CONCURRENT SESSIONS – 31 TO 35Saturday, June 73:30 – 5:00 pm

31 INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY MARKETSZerlina Room

Hamilcar Knops, PresidingInternational Institute of Energy LawLeiden University

New Dynamics of Forecasting Load and Prices:Assessing Value of Assets & Future Contracts in

Competitive Wholesale Electricity MarketsFereidoon P. SioshansiPresidentMenlo Energy Economics

The Decision of Investment and its Funding in anUndergoing Institutional Environment: The Case of a

Nuclear EquipmentMarie-Laure GuillerminetDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of Montpellier I

Changing Investment Incentives in a DeregulatedEuropean Electricity Market: The Case of Increasing

Transmission Capacity Between Sweden and GermanyAnna Krook-RiekkolaErik O. AhlgrenIngrid NystromChalmers University of Technology

The Investment Paradox in Competitive ElectricityMarkets – Problem Formulation, Empirical Evidence

and Solution StrategiesChristoph WeberInstitute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of

Energy (IER)University of Stuttgart

The Investment Effectiveness Evaluation in PowerEngineering Under Market Conditions

Waldemar KamratDept. of Electrical Power EngineeringGdansk University of Technology

32 ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSISDonna Elvira Room

Huei-Chu Liao, PresidingAssociate ProfessorTam Kang University

Fuel- Switching CapabilityAlain BousquetNorbert LadouxUniversité des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse

The Heat Is On: The Changing Role of Weather onResidential Energy Demand

David L. RyanAndré PlourdeUniversity of AlbertaThe Future of North-Western Mediterranean Natural Gas

Demand – Econometric EvidenceHadi HalloucheMichael TamvakisCASS Business SchoolCity University, LondonDecomposition of Manufacturing Energy Use in OECDCountries: How Do Recent Developments Compare to

Historical Long-Term Trends?Fridtjof UnanderSenior Analyst/Principal AdministratorInternational Energy Agency

33 MORE CONSEQUENCES OF LIVING IN ACARBON-CONSTRAINED WORLD

Donna Anna RoomRobert Arnott, PresidingResearch FellowOxford Institute for Energy Studies

Strategic Energy Pricing and Carbon Taxing underUncertainty about Global Warming

Franz WirlProfessorUniversity of Vienna

Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage (BECS): A SequentialDecision Approach to the Threat of Abrupt Climate

ChangePeter ReadPeter Read Consultancy Ltd.Jonathan LermitEnergy ConsultantPerspectives for the Diffusion of Natural Gas, Renewable

Energies and Energy Efficiency in a CO2 MitigationFramework: The Case of Switzerland up to 2010

Martin JakobReinhard MadlenerCEPEETH-Zentrum WEC CKyoto and the Electricity Production in US and Canada

Jean-Thomas BernardFrédéric ClavetJean-Cléophas OndoUniversité Laval

34 ISSUES AFFECTING MARKETS FOR CRUDEOIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Leporello RoomMusa M. Essayyad, PresidingDepartment of Finance & EconomicsKing Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals

Too Many Leasing Decisions in the Oil Industry?Magne EmhjellenPetoro ASKjell LøvasStatoil

The Impact of Oil Industry Liberalization on theEfficiency of Petroleum Fuels Supply for the Domestic

Market in IndonesiaDr. KurtubiSenior Staff to Executive VP DevelopmentPERTAMINA, Indonesia

Oil Price Shock: A Non-linear ApproachRebeca Jiménez-RodríguezDpto. Fundamentos del Análisis EconómicoUniversidad de Alicante, Spain

The Geographical Oil Consumption-ProductionMismatch: Its Growth and Possible Growing Pains

Bernard A. GelbSpecialist in Industry EconomicsCongressional Research Service

35 BACK TO THE FUTURE?: THE SECURITY OFENERGY SUPPLY

Don Ottavio + Masetto RoomsDenis Babusiaux, PresidingDirecteur Scientifique en EconomieInstitut Français du Pétrole

Security of Energy Supply: Historical Evidence andFuture Prospects

Machiel MulderCPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy AnalysisAad CorreljeDelft University of Technology

Could Strategic Gas Reserves Help EU Security-of-Supply?

Ole Gunnar AustvikEconomistLillehammer University College

The European Union’s Security of Energy Supply andRussian Gas

James ChalkerAmsterdam Law SchoolUniversiteit van Amsterdam

The EvrAzEs and Eurasia’s Energy SecurityGregory GleasonProfessor of Political Science & Public Admin.University of New Mexico

POSTER SESSION - 1Thursday, June 54:00 – 5:00 pm

Board Room 1TECHNOLOGY ISSUES IN ENERGYPRODUCTION AND USE

Board No. 1The Empirical Assessment of Technology Differences:

Comparing the ComparableManuel FrondelZEW – Centre for European Economic ResearchChristoph M. SchmidtRheinisch-Westfälisches Institute fur Wirtschaftsforschung

Board No. 2Energy Densities: Evolutionary Aspects and Policy

ImplicationsBruno FritschProfessor EmeritusSwiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich

Board No. 3Design for the Optimum Energy System Having Small

Nuclear Power in JapanToshihiko NakataShuichi AshinaManagement of Science and TechnologyTohoku University

Board No. 4Strategy for Nuclear Fuel Cycle in an Uncertain

Situation: A Model Analysis Focusing on the Uncer-tainty about Technological Progress

Takayuki TakeshitaKenji YamajiYasumasa FujiiDepartment of Advanced EnergyThe University of Tokyo

Board No. 5Entry Mechanisms of Energy Actors in the Telecommuni-

cations IndustryCarole Le HenaffCGEMPUniversité Paris IX – Dauphine

Board No. 6Energy Trade and Grid in the Northeast Asia:

System for the Better Decision MakingFumio ArakawaExecutive Senior EngineerGlobal Engineering Institute, Inc.

POSTER SESSION - 2Friday, June 6

10:30 – 11:30 amBoard Room 1

ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT

Board No. 1Increase in Environmental Restrictions as a

Leverage to GTL ProjectsEdmar Luiz Fagundes de AlmeidaProfessor, Institute of EconomicsFederal University of Rio de Janeiro

Board No. 2Assessment of Market Systems for CO2 Emissions

Trading as Environmental Policy Options, with SpecialEmphasis on Evaluation of Intertemporal Trading

Kazuya FujimeManaging DirectorThe Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Board No. 3DEA Efficiency in the Finnish District Heating

CompaniesPäivi PeltolaDepartment of Business and EconomicsUniversity of Joensuu

Board No. 4The 96/61 Directive (IPPC) and the Role of Best

Available Techniques in the Energy FieldMaria ProtoStefania SupinoOrnella MalandrinoUniversity of Salerno, Italy

Board No. 5Changes of Energy Efficiency in Countries in Transition

and Their Assessment in Forecasting Energy DemandVaclovas MiskinisJurgis VilemasLithuanian Energy Institute

Board No. 6Fuel Poverty in Europe: A Cross-Country Analysis

Using A New Composite MeasurementJohn D. HealyUrban Institute of IrelandUniversity College Dublin

POSTER SESSION - 3Friday, June 64:00 – 5:00 pm

Board Room 1FOCUS ON ISSUES IN OIL AND GAS MARKETS

Board No. 1Bertrand Competition with Entry and Asymmetric

InformationCorinne ChatonLaurent DavidGaz de France

Board No. 2Corporate Governance and Performance: Case of Oil

CompaniesRym HachanaPhD Student in EconomicsUniversité Paris IX - Dauphine

Board No. 3The Transformation of European Energy Markets and

Energy Taxation IncentivesFrank AscheOdd Bjarte NilsenPetter OsmundsenRagnar TveterasStavanger University College

Board No. 4An Alternative Government Oil Stockpile Strategy: The

Empirical Study in TaiwanHuei-Chu LiaoEconomics DepartmentTamkang University

Board No. 5Mergers in Energy Markets: The Case of E.ON-RuhrgasKai HueschelrathInstitute for Industrial Organization, GermanyKai RommelTechnical University Cottbus, Germany

Board No. 6Regulation by Duopoly Under Political Constraints

Jose Eduardo Mendoza ContrerasNeil RickmanUniversity of Surrey

POSTER SESSION - 4Saturday, June 710:30 - 11:30 am

Board Room 1

DEVELOPMENTS IN ELECTRICITYMARKETS

Board No. 1Competition with Power: Experiences of a Local Utility

Company with Five Years of Market Liberalisation inGermany

Dirk BuennagelAssistant to the Board of DirectorsStadtwerke Duesseldorft AG

Board No. 2Potential for Market Power in the German Electricity

Market?Christian HewickerKonstantin PetrovKEMA Consulting

Board No. 3Development of Model for the Simulation of Marginal

Losses in the Transmission GridMindaugas KrakauskasAusra PazeraiteLithuanian Energy Institute

Board No. 4Development of Electricity Market in Lithuania and the

BalticsVidmantas JankauskasChairmanNational Control Commission for Prices and Energy,

LithuaniaBoard No. 5

The Question of Generation Adequacy in LiberalizedElectricity Markets

Laurens de VriesRudi HakvoortDelft University of Technology

OPENING RECEPTION — CLUB LAVKA The Welcome Reception will be held at Club Lavka from 6 to 8pm on Wednesday, June 4. Situated next to the Charles Bridge, this

restaurant has unmatched views of Prague Castle and the Charles Bridge. Lavka’s central location in the Old Town of Prague will enableeverybody to visit any of hundreds of other refreshment places, watering holes, restaurants, etc. where socializing and networking neverstops. Both indoor and outdoor seating areas are available, depending on the weather. Food, wine, and beer will be served, and your comingwill guarantee excellent company.

PRAGUE GALA DINNERThe French Restaurant in the Municipal House is often rated as one of the most beautiful restaurants in the world. This restaurant

will serve as the backdrop for the Prague conference Gala Dinner. The Municipal House was built on the former King Wenceslas’ IVcourt, opening in 1910. The building has been restored and kept close to its original appearance. The stucco decorations, woodenwainscoting, original tables and furniture assure it’s historical appeal. Allegorical scenes painted on a sidewall, original wallpaper andother decorations create a special atmosphere. Today’s patrons of The French Restaurant tend to escape the contemporary hustle of thenew millennium and opt to return almost 100 years to the days when Art Nouveau ruled in Prague. Registered delegates are invited to theGala Dinner where they will be surrounded by unique details created during the most significant period of Czech artists, including thepresent with the restaurant’s chef, Mr. Jiri Kral, winner of many international culinary competitions. Enjoy not only the beauty of TheMunicipal House, but also the tastes of an award-winning chef, while you mingle with other energy colleagues for an evening of history,beauty and fine cuisine.

Conference Information(Have Any Conference Questions? - Call 216-464-5365 for Answers)

HOTEL RESERVATION / INFORMATIONThe Dorint Don Giovanni Hotel, the conference venue, is con-

veniently located near the business district and Prague city attrac-tions. We have a special room block at the following rates per night:

Single/Double Room Euro 151Expect More Room Euro 171 (Executive Floor)These special rates apply for occupancy May 29 – June 11, 2003,

leaving you plenty of time before and after the conference to enjoyPrague. Please note that you MUST make your reservations prior toThursday, May 15, 2003, to receive these special rates. Reservationsplaced after May 15, will be confirmed at the group rate on a space-available basis. Check-in time is 3:00 pm and check-out time is12:00 noon. For reservations please complete the hotel booking formincluded in this conference announcement and either fax this to 420-2-6703-6704 (c/o Ms. Denisa Havlik) or email to the attention ofMs. Denisa Havlik at denisa.havlik@dorinthotels.cz

Do not send your Hotel Booking form to the Conferencesecretariet or IAEE Headquarters. Hotel Booking forms must be sentdirect to the Dorint Don Giovanni Hotel in Prague for processing andconfirmation.

TRAVEL DOCUMENTSAll international attendees to the IAEE International Confer-

ence are urged to contact their travel agent regarding the necessity ofa Visa and/or Passport documents to gain entrance to the Czech Re-public. If you need a Visa make sure you obtain a Business Visa.Allow plenty of time for processing these documents. If you need aletter of invitation to attend the conference, contact IAEE with a faxrequest at 216-464-2737. Please provide your return fax number sothat we may promptly respond to your request. Note that IAEE doesnot have funds to sponsor participant’s registration, travel or hotel/transportation costs, etc. in conjunction with this meeting.

AIR TRANSPORTATIONCSA – Czech Airlines – is the official carrier of the 26th Annual

IAEE International Conference. CSA offers a 15% discount fromapplicable economy class fares and a 25% discount from businessclass fares for participants of the conference after checking the regis-tration form in all CSA offices worldwide. The discount will bevalid for journeys during the following period: 7 days before thebeginning of the conference – 7 days after the end of the conference.The discount is not valid for flights OK 3000 – OK 4999. Pleasecontact your nearest CSA office when booking your flight to Pragueafter December 1, 2002.

To receive these special discounts please contact your nearestCSA office. You will need to provide them with the title of the con-ference: “26th Annual IAEE Conference” and email your confirma-tion of registration for the conference. Click onwww.czechairlines.com for more information on CSA services, time-tables and a list of offices worldwide.

GROUND TRANSPORTATIONA good metro system, as well as trams and buses serve the city

and its suburbs. Metro and tramlines crisscross the city in all direc-tions, while buses generally serve suburban areas, often running frommetro station to areas between and beyond metro lines. Tickets canbe purchased in metro stations and in newsstands, but not on board abus or tram. A special deal has been negotiated for conference del-egates. For approximately US$2.00, delegates can obtain a 4-daypass valid for all modes of public transportation – an excellent value!Discount transportation tickets may be purchased at the IAEE Regis-tration Desk.

The Hotel DORINT Don Giovanni is conveniently located justabove the metro station ZELIVSKEHO, four metro stops from thecity center. It takes about 10 minutes to get to downtown. Also, thetram station is located nearby. Basically, no taxi or car rental isnecessary in Prague, except for the period between midnight and5am, when the metro does not run. During this period, only tram andbuses are available.

Transport from the airport to the hotel: A subsidiary of Czech Air-lines, AIRTOURS will provide a shuttle bus between the airport andhotel for selected CSA flights on June 4, 2003. Otherwise, taxis can behired at the airport. The trip to the Hotel DORINT is approximatelyUS$20.00.

DISCOVER PRAGUEPrague or “The Mother of Cities” is steeped in treasures both

past and present. In the heart of the historical Bohemian region ofcentral Europe, visitors are treated to history at every turn; the Jew-ish quarter, the National Gallery, Old Town Square, Charles Bridge,Wenceslas Square and the Lesser Quarter. There is no limit to theamount of history bestowed upon the towers of The Prague Castleand St. Vitus Cathedral.

The Czech Republic’s capital city is located on the Vltava(Moldau) River. Prague offers the traveler a view of all the majorarchitectural styles of Western European history. Prague’s buildingsare well preserved, as they have been relatively free of major wars.

Be sure to leave a few days both pre and post of the conferenceto allow for time to take in all that Prague has to offer. Walk theRoyal Route: Prague Castle (containing walls more than a millen-nium old and current home of the Czech president). Within the wallsof Prague Castle you can visit St. Vitus Cathedral, the Royal Palaceand St. George’s Basilica, which is now an art gallery. Before leav-ing the castle, wander through Golden Lane, an alley of 16 tiny housesbuilt along a former castle wall named for the goldsmiths once em-ployed by the Emperor.

Stroll across Charles Bridge built in the mid-14th century byCharles IV. The bridge is open to pedestrians only. Take your timeto enjoy the view and discover the significance of the monarch’s useof astrologers to time the building of the bridge to be at the mostappropriate time. Speaking of time, just over the bridge, in Old TownSquare, you’ll find the astrological clock with performances at thetop of each hour depicting the march of the twelve apostles. WolfgangAmadeus Mozart walked the streets of Old Town and conducted thepremiere of Don Giovanni within its borders.

If all your touring hasn’t left you exhausted, you can find somegood buys while shopping. Blood-red garnets are the official Czechnational gem, fine crystal has been produced in Bohemia since the14th century, antiques including books and prints are readily avail-able, local beer is a bit heavy to carry home, but you can take home ataste of Prague with Becherovka, the country’s popular herbal li-queur.

Prague has a tradition for theater. Prague’s leading theatersinclude: the National Theatre, the State Opera, the Estates’ Theatreand the Magic Lantern. You can choose between many performancessuch as dance, drama, music or a musical. Wherever you choose, youcan be sure that you are sitting where history was made.

To plan your time both pre and post of the conference, be sure tocheck out the following websites: www.czech.cz,www.centraleurope.com/ceo/czech, www.pis.cz or www.prague-info.cz These should be useful for general tips, city highlights andtravel information.

CLIMATEPrague’s weather in June is usually nice, although rain or show-

ers are possible. The average temperature at the time of the confer-ence is usually around 70F / 21C but you may find cooler eveningsand hotter days. Be sure to check out the weekly forecast at: http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/local/EZXX0012

WHAT TO WEARThis year’s conference attire is business dress. This includes

suits and ties for gentlemen; skirts, nine-to-five dresses and pantsuitsfor ladies. (Please note: Although the temperatures outside may bewarm, often the air-conditioning indoors warrants a light sweater orjacket.)

CANCELLATIONS/SUBSTITUTIONSAll cancellations and substitutions must be received in writing at IAEE Conference Headquarters. Cancellationsreceived on or before May 3, 2003 are subject to a non-refundable $250.00 administrative fee. Cancellations receivedafter May 3, 2003 will be honored, however, no refund will be made. There will be no refunds for no-shows. There isno exception allowed to this policy. Should you be unable to attend, substitutions may be made to transfer yourregistration to another member of your organization at any time up to June 1, 2003.

IAEE 26th International Conference PresortedJune 4-7, 2003 • Hotel Dorint Don Giovanni, Prague, Czech Republic StandardIAEE Conference Headquarters U.S.Postage Paid28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350 Richfield, OHCleveland, OH 44122 USA Permit No. 82

Registration FormNEW CHALLENGES FOR ENERGY DECISION MAKERS

June 4-7, 2003 • Hotel Dorint Don Giovanni, Prague, Czech RepublicREGISTRATION FEES are payable in advance. Complete the form below and mail to IAEE Conference Headquarters along with your check payable to IAEE inU.S. dollars and drawn on a U.S. bank. Conference registration fees may be wire transferred. Fax 216-464-2737 for wire transfer information. Hotel and related travelcosts are not included in registration fees. Registration fees include: registration materials, a copy of the conference proceedings on CD-Rom, three lunches, fourreceptions, one dinner and coffee breaks. Students: submit a letter stating that you are a full-time student and are not employed full-time. The letter should provide thename and contact information for your main faculty supervisor or your department chair and a copy of your student identification card. IAEE reserves the right to verifystudent status.

Type of registration (check which applies): Received on or Before Received Received Check Speakers and Poster Session May 3, 2003 May 4 to After June 1, 2003 Below Participants - NOTE payment June 1, 2003 & Onsite Fee_____ must be received by 3/3/03 $ 495.00 US_____ IAEE Members 570.00 US $ 620.00 US $645.00 US_____ Nonmembers (includes membership) 670.00 US 720.00 US 745.00 US_____ Nonmembers (without membership) 705.00 US 755.00 US 780.00 US_____ Full Time Students 325.00 US 375.00 US 425.00 US_____ Guests (meal functions only; no meeting sessions) 325.00 US 375.00 US 425.00 US_____ Proceedings CD Rom - Member 100.00 US 100.00 US 100.00 US_____ CD Rom - Nonmember 150.00 US 150.00 US 150.00 US_____ Proceedings Print Version - Member 140.00 US 140.00 US 140.00 US_____ Print Version - Nonmember 190.00 US 190.00 US 190.00 US_____ General Conference Sponsorship 250.00 US 250.00 US 250.00 US_____ Student Scholarship Fund Support 50.00 US 50.00 US 50.00 US

Total Paid ___________ ___________ ___________Method of Payment _____ Check (Check payable to IAEE in U.S. dollars and drawn on a U.S. bank)

_____ Credit Card _______ Visa _____ Master Card Card Number _____________________________________________________

Signature ______________________________________________________________

Last Name: _____________________________________________________ First Name: _________________________________________

Informal First Name (for badge): _______________________________________________________________________________________

Guest’s Name (for badge), if any: _______________________________________________________________________________________

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Address: ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

City/Country: ___________________________________________________________ Zip/Mail Code: ______________________________

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Special Needs: ___Check here if you have a disability or special need and may require accommodation to fully participate.Please send payment to:

IAEE Conference Headquarters28790 Chagrin Blvd., Ste. 350Cleveland, OH 44122 USA

Phone: 216-464-2785; Fax: 216-464-2768 E-mail: iaee@iaee.org

We do not accept any other credit cards. Expiration Date_____________________

Dorint Don Giovanni Prague, Vinohradská 157 a, CZ - 13061 Praha 3Telephone: operator +420-2-6703-1111; reservations: +420-2-6703-6703; fax +420-2-6703-6704

Dorint Don Giovanni Prague – HypoVereinsbank CZ a.s., Praha, account no. 133 100 5011 / 3800 / for Czech CrownsDorint Don Giovanni Prague – HypoVereisbank CZ a.s., Praha, account no. 133 100 4107 / 3800 SWIFT: HYVECZPP for Foreign Currency

DICO: 003 – 26 14 49 48

HOTEL BOOKING FORM

26th IAEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE04th June 2003 - 07th June 2003

DORINT HOTEL DON GIOVANNIVinohradská 157 A, CZ - 130 20 Prague 3

tel.: + 420 2 6703 1111Please, use one form per delegate. All reservations must be received on or before May 15, 2003.Past this date, the rooms will be offered on space available basis and at the group rates listed below.The group rates are valid for occupancy from May 29, 2003 to June 11, 2003.

Please, send this form to the Dorint Don Giovanni Prague to the attention of Meeting & ConventionDepartment, FAX: + 420 2 6703 6704 or send the form via email to Denisa Havlik:denisa.havlik@dorinthotels.cz

First Name:Last Name:Company:Telephone:Facsimile:E-Mail:Arrival Date:Departure Date:Arrival Time:Credit Card Type & No.:Credit Card Holder:Expiration Date:Authorized Signature:I would like to make the following reservation in the hotel:Please tick: Single Room, price Euro 151,-/room nightPlease tick: Double Room, price Euro151,-/ room nightPlease tick: Expect More (executive) Room, price Euro 171,-/ room nightThe number of Expect More Rooms is limited to 20 rooms for IAEE.Please tick: Please book me a non-smoking room. * All rates as listed above include American Breakfast Buffet daily per person. (Onebreakfast per paid room only)

Dorint* * * *DON GIOVANNI

PRAGUE

IAEE PRAGUE CONFERENCE TECHNICAL AND SOCIAL TOURSTECHNICAL TOUR

ECKG POWER PLANT AND DISTRICT HEATING IN KLADNO & KRIVOKLAT CASTLEThis tour will demonstrate the most modern Czech power plant (with fluidized bed technology and a gas turbine) that supplies the City

of Kladno with district heat. The heat distribution company TEPO (a conference sponsor) is in itself evidence of the successful transformationof the energy market from a central planning to a free market. This power plant is also an important part of the critical infrastructure ofPrague’s power supply.

Then you will visit Krivoklat Castle, which is one of the oldest and most important castles of the kings of Bohemia. Its beginnings dateback to the 12th century. You can admire the magnificent castle chapel, the Royal Hall, and the Hall of Knights with its exhibitions of Gothicpaintings and sculptures. There are many other features you will see at Krivoklat Castle, which is a national cultural monument.

A bus will depart the Dorint hotel at 9:00am on Wednesday, June 4 and drop participants off in front of Club Luvka for the conferenceOpening Reception at 5:00pm.

Duration: 8 hoursServices: Transport by coach, snack, guidePrice per person: 33 Euro

If you wish to take part in this technical tour please contact Ms. Monika Mechurova by phone at +420-234 125 232 ormonika.mechurova@cityplan.cz

SOCIAL TOURS

“SURVIVORS PARTY” — “U FLEKU” BREWERY AND RESTAURANTThe conference closing “Survivor’s Party” will be held at U Fleku on Saturday, June 7, between 8pm and midnight. This place goes back

to the 15th century and the beer served is brewed on the spot. It is a dark malty beer that goes well with hearty meals to be served at the party.Despite many centuries, the rooms are almost still in their original state. The food has improved since then, though it’s not exactly diet food.Roast beef, roast pig, fish, and other treats will be waiting for your stomachs. Local schnapps will be a certain delight for connoisseurs.Dress: White tie, Black tie, business suit, jeans, shorts, anything will do. All we need is your presence, and we will foot the bill regardlessof how much beer you drink and food you eat. Transportation will be provided to and from the Hotel Dorint.

We have arranged special discounts for IAEE delegates. To make reservations for any of the above social tours contact:

CSA Airtours.a.sKolejni 2

160 00 PRAHA 6Phone: +420 2 20104521523

Fax: +420 2 20104526E-mail: mail@airtours.cz

GRAND CITY TOUR OF PRAGUEThe basic standard sightseeing to help you set general impressionsof the “Golden City”. This tour shows the most famous parts of Prague- the Old Town with Rudolfinum and Old Town Square, CharlesBridge and of course the most beautiful part - Hradcany includingthe Loretto Church, Royal Palace, St. Vitus Cathedral, St. GeorgeChurch and the Golden Lane. The tour continues to the New Town tothe Wenceslas Square - famous shopping area.

Duration: 3,5 hoursServices: transport by coach, partially by

walking, guidePrice per person: 18 Euro

JEWISH QUARTER WALKING TOURFirst part of the tour includes the highlights of the historical Prague- Old Town with the Astronomical Clock, Tyn Church. In the famousJewish Quarter also called Josefov, first the visitor get acquaintedwith the history of the former Ghetto and the Old New Synagogue,the tour shows the Jewish cemetery, visiting also some of the syna-gogues. Visitors are also informed about Franz Kafka and his nativehouse is shown to them during this tour.

Duration: 2 hoursServices: entries to Jewish Quarter, guidePrice per person: 22 Euro

KARLSTEJN CASTLEA half-day tour takes you approximately 35 km south-west fromPrague to the medieval Castle Kirsten. This mighty construction hasbeen built 1348 under Emperor Charles IV. It has never been con-quered and it was here, where for several centuries the Crown Jew-els and all important documents were kept. The Castle entrance isreachable after 15 minutes walk uphill from the parking lot. Duringa comprehensive guided tour fortifications and rooms of this impres-sive castle will be seen. After the visit return to Prague.

Duration: 4,5 hoursServices: transport by coach, guide, and

entrance feePrice per person: 24 Euro

PILSNER BREWERYBeer has been brewed in Pilsen since 1295. But the Pilsner beer hasthe name of the Prazdroj brewery (Pilsner Urquell), which was builtin 1842. During this tour you will understand how real Pilsner wasbrewed and drunk in the past, how real Pilsner is brewed and howreal Pilsner is drunk.

Duration: 7 hoursServices: bus, guide, entrance feePrice per person: 41 Euro