Towards a Regional Flagship Report

Beirut, February 2012 Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank

CC is the development challenge of our time in the Arab countries

CC is a threat to poverty reduction

and economic growth May reverse many of the development

gains made in recent decades

This calls for action

We need to act now, act together, and act differently (World Bank, 2010)

Current and projected

climate variability and

change

Other stresses, e.g.:

Increase in population,

urbanization and education

in the Arab countries

Calls for climate change

adaptation to reduce the

negative impacts and build climate

resilient communities

Increased Vulnerability

Flagship Report provides: ▪ Information on climate change and consequences and ▪ Practical guidance on CC adaptation for policymakers ▪ Opportunity for collaboration between LAS, 20+ regional researchers

and advisors

Addresses the Arab region as a whole The IPCC reports

splits the Arab world in 2 parts: North Africa

Arabian Peninsula

Climate change is happening now - 2010:

the warmest year since late 1800s when records began ▪ Kuwait (52.6°C), Iraq & Saudi Arab. (52.0°C), Qatar (50.4°C) & Sudan(49.7°C)

Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on record

Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of record summer ocean-water temperature

Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods

In recent decades

Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3°C per decade

▪ More frequent and intense heat waves

Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased frequency of droughts and floods

Threatening wellbeing and livelihoods

Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4°C/decade

1.5 times faster than the global average

Most of North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean will become drier

Greater variability and more extremes

Throughout history people have coped with a harsh environment

2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300 years of reduced rainfall and colder temperatures that forced people to abandon their rainfed fields in NE Syria

With CC, coping strategies that people have

exploited throughout history may no longer be available and adequate

Temperature increases and changes in precipitation are likely to

CGE model

Reduce household incomes - Syria $3.4 B, Yemen $5.7 B by 2050 (taking into account autonomous adaptation)

Droughts

Reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year

Increase poverty levels by 0.3-1.4 pp

Droughts

reduce growth in GDP by ~1 pp compared to non-drought year (CGE)

Worsens food security significantly - the poor are hit the hardest

▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices

▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp

▪ Poor farm households are most affected, followed by rural nonfarm and urban households

In 2050, the region will likely face a 10% reduction in water run-off due to climate change

Today there is a 16% renewable water supply gap, in 2050 The region likely face a 50% renewable water supply gap

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050

Renewable Water Resources

Total Water Demand

51%

% of demand unmet by renewable sources

37% 16%

Water, km3

year

70% of the poorest people live in rural areas and Among the most vulnerable to CC

Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to high dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture

Stresses to local food production systems calls for increased import Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease food

access for vulnerable households

Social safety nets and other programs are called for

Without basic services, residents of informal settlements have little capacity to adapt to climate hazards

CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front when making infrastructure investment decisions

0

20

40

60

80

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Arab World World Yemen UAE Tunisia

~70% live along the

37,000 km developed coastline; in low-lying coastal zones

Urbanization %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen

Women

Men

CC impacts men and women differently Women often responsible for natural resource & household management & have limited participation in the decision-making process

=> Smart climate policy is inclusive process- youth, men & women take part in the decision-making to increase climate resilience

Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004)

Diversify Economic activities both at household level & national level

to increase climate resilience

Integrate Adaptation Into all projects; not stand-alone adaptation projects

Apply for All Rich and poor and most sectors will be impacted by CC

Leadership

A holistic approach is called for, incl. youth , men & women

October 2011: Draft to LAS & Gov’s for comments

▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS

▪ Consultations in: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE

January & February 2012: Incorporating comments provided by the governments, etc. & finalize report

Spring 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ...

Italian Development Cooperation

European Union

International Fund for Agricultural Development

League of Arab States

World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit

Thank You شكرا