Serious Gaming: Public Policy Analysis

1Challenge the future

The Gaming of Policy and the Politics of Gaming

© Dr. Igor Mayer [email protected]

Faculty Technology, Policy and Management (TPM) & Signature Games

Delft University of technology, The Netherlands

mailto:[email protected]


References

1. Mayer, I. S. (2009). The Gaming of Policy and the Politics of Gaming: A Review. Simulation & Gaming,

40(6), 825–862. doi:10.1177/1046878109346456

2. Mayer, I. S. (2008). Gaming for policy analysis: learning about complex multi-actor systems. In L. De

Caluwé, G. J. Hofstede, & V. Peters (Eds.), Why do games work? (pp. 31–40). Deventer: Kluwer.

3. Mayer, I. S., Bekebrede, G., Bilsen, A. van, Zhou, Q., & van Bilsen, A. (2009). Beyond Simcity: Urban

Gaming and Multi-Actor Systems. In E. Stolk & M. te Brommelstroet (Eds.), Model Town. Using Urban

Simulation in New Town Planning (pp. 168–181). Amsterdam: SUN/INTI.

4. Duffhues, J., Mayer, I. S., Nefs, M., & van der Vliet, M. (2013). Breaking Barriers to Transit-Oriented

Development: Insights from the Serious Game SPRINTCITY. Environment and Planning B (in press).

5. Mayer, I. S., Zhou, Q., Lo, J., Abspoel, L., Keijser, X., Olsen, E., … Kannen, A. (2013). Integrated,

Ecosystem-based Marine Spatial Planning: Design and Results of a Game-based Quasi-Experiment.

Ocean and Coastal Management, 82, 7–26. doi:dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.04.006


Simulation-games

Simulation:

purposeful and valid/accurate, dynamic representation of reality, formalized, often quantitative, computerized, etc.

Game:

based upon a rule-set, imaginative, creative, with social interaction (players), experiential, immersion, engagement etc.


Evolution

1890-1940

War gaming• Krieg Spiel• Ad hoc

educational and political games

1940s

Operations research• Science for

decision making: mathematics, economics, engineering

• Optimization of Military Logistics (raids, etc.)

• Game theory• Operational

gaming

1950s

Systems Analysis• Think tanks• Complex systems

behavior by looking at the entities.

• Formal Gaming (= simulation)

• 1st business games

1960s

Policy analysis• Cold war• Social science perspective. • Free form gaming

1970-80s

Social change and critique•Environment, 3rd world, international relations crisis•Crisis in planning and modeling•System dynamics for complexity

1980s-90s

Interactive policy making•Interactive, participatory modeling and simulation•Strengthening the policy maker – modeler interface

2000s

Complexity• Infrastructure

planning• Reinventing

Serious gaming for military, health care

• Net generation:• Massive

Multiplayer Online Role Playing games

• Second Life, WoW, etc.

2010Social networks and mobility

•Game generation•Internet / Mobile gaming•Augmented and mixed reality


Crisis in MSG for policy making (70s)

Many of the people in the US departments of Housing and Urban Development and Health, Education, and Welfare, who are directly responsible for the millions of dollars that have gone into some of the public sector models, simulations, and games, really could not care less what those MSGs produced as long as they, the research sponsors, got credit for having been modern, management-oriented and scientific.

Brewer, 1975: 3

(…) close inspection (...) reveals a divergence of purpose between those who build and those who use MSGs having a policy assisting intent; users are inadequately trained to know what they are buying from technical experts; and this inadequacy also exists with respect to the experts knowing or caring about the users. What results are ill-developed controls over the building and use of MSGs because (1) the actual users do not know how the information contained in the model was generated; and (2) the experts responsible for the information contained in the model have abnegated responsibility for the products through disinterest, contempt, and ignorance.

Brewer, 1975: iii

(...) none of the goals held out for large scale models have been achieved, and there is little reason to expect anything different in the future (…) Methods for long range planning—whether they are called comprehensive planning, large scale systems simulation, or something else—need to change drastically, if planners expect to have any influence on the long run.

Lee, 1973: 16

(Gaming) is perhaps the ultimate comedown, as it means using the models as heuristic aids in the context of operational gaming. Players make decisions in the synthetic city, observe the consequences and make new decisions.

Lee, 1973: 25


(Over)optimism of SG policy making?

Given the importance of models and simulations in public policy making, and the need to improve their effectiveness, the governmental and non-governmental model and simulation building communities should be striving to explore and build on other existing model-building practices. Some of the most interesting work being done is within the interactive entertainment industry.

Ben Sawyer, 2002:1


Founding fathers of serious gaming

Johan Huizinga

Roger Cailliois

Clark Abt

Dick Duke

Johan Huizinga: ‘Homo Ludens’ (1938)

Man is playful

Playing is stepping into a ‘magic circle’ (suspension of belief)

Culture emerges out of play(fulness)

Characteristics of play in judicial system, science, military, etc.

Play is a serious matter (een ‘ernstige zaak’)

Caillois (1958)

Clark Abt: ‘Serious games’ (1968 / 1970)

War gaming for non-military purposes, like education and science

Dick Duke: Gaming - the futures language (1974)

Increasing complexity of real world systems, policy making, organizations and planning

Traditional communication cannot cope with complexity

New language = holistic / gestalt language

Gaming = holistic language of complexity.


Propositiona

Democracy 2 www.positech.co.uk/democracy2/ Player screen

Causal model Energy Ville

1. A fairly simple game model can

communicate Real World complexity

2. While playing with a model,

students/professionals learn about the

underlying model of complexity!

3. Games are (represent) complex (multi-

actor) systems.

4. Through gaming we can learn to

understand (manage) a complex

system.

http://www.positech.co.uk/democracy2/


Energy Water Industry

Sea ports Air ports Rail

Complex multi actor systems


Systems thinking: The worldview of S&G

Factors:Real world systems are based on many variables that interact with each other in dynamic feedback relations leading to uncertainty (..) many variables can not be quantified and there exists no proven conceptual model or precedent to base decision and action.

Actors:The social political context (..) shows many actors that may be strategic or a-rational and finally there is a futures context in the sense that the decision is irrevocable and the results will not be understood well into the future

Dick Duke, 1980


A satelite view


Two forms of complexity

•Many interdependent, loosely coupled stakeholders (policy network)

•Scientific disagreement and conflicts•Disputed knowledge, values & norms•Dynamic rounds and arena’s (fluidity)

•Political compromises

•Stakeholder participation•Process management•Negotiated knowledge•Soft tools – learning, persuasion.

•Reductionist approach:•Linear (steps, phases) or cyclical

(iterative) decision making•Decision support & computer simulation

•Optimization, quantification•Reduction, simplification, abstraction

•Etc.

•Many interconnected and interdependent technical-physical variables and systems.

• Incomplete information•Uncertainty: cognitive, deep core, long term

•Quantification problems•Lack of proven scientific models•Etc… Technical

physical complexity

Management of technical

physical complexity

Social political complexity

Management of social political complexity


Combining technical and political complexities

First, on the nature of the phenomena handled by planners, it is increasingly recognized that the evolution of the urban development process is an extraordinarily complex and dynamic activity. In simple terms, it involves both physical and social systems; here lies the heart of the problem, namely the simultaneous handling of “both types” of system as they evolve and interact. On the one hand the physical system is relatively simple to measure and represent as tangible elements are involved. The components of the social system, on the other hand, are not so convenient to handle, as volatile human behavior is very much involved.

Taylor, 1971: 85

These two conventional methods can usefully address some knowledge needs of global change issues, but are systematically ill-equipped to address others. To address the knowledge needs that are not well met by conventional methods, the paper argues for the use of a set of alternative methods, known by various names, including policy exercises, simulation gaming, and scenario exercises.

Parson, 1997: 267


E

D

A

B C

F

G

+

+

+

+

-

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Mental maps, values, perceptions,

interests, etc.

Mental maps,

values, perceptions,. interests, etc.

Mental maps, values, perceptions

interests, etc.


interests, etc.


interests, etc.

+

Mental maps,

values, perceptions, interests, etc.

Mental maps,



interests, etc.


interests, etc.

Mental maps,Values, perceptions,

interests, etc.

Mental maps,


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+ +

--

E

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B C

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A B C+ -

E.g. Energy label for houses Insulation Energy consumption


Requirements for intervention tools

1. Integrative.• Considers aspects,

levels, networks, sectors disciplines in a holistic , integrative and systemic

way.

2. Dynamic.• shows alternatives over

time.

3. Interactive.• Supports interaction,

negotiation among multiple stakeholders.

4. Transparent.• Not a black box for

stakeholders , but insightful relations.

5. Flexible & Reusable.

• Adaptable, repeatable for similar contexts;

modifiable to different contexts.

6. Communicative & educational.

• Conveys meaning and insights.

7. Authoritative.• validity, reliability,

verification / justification, falsification.

• timeliness, protecting core values.

Serious Gaming: Public Policy Analysis

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