Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G....

36
Glacier Hazard Workshop 2009 Vienna Sergey Chernomorets , Stephen G. Evans, Dmitr y Petrakov, Ol g a Tutubalina , Irina Se y nova Moscow State University University Centre for Engineering Geodynamics University of Waterloo C d Faculty of Geography Russia Engineering Geodynamics and Monitoring Russia Canada

Transcript of Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G....

Page 1: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Glacier Hazard Workshop 2009 Vienna

Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov, Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynovay , g , y

Moscow State UniversityUniversity Centre for

Engineering GeodynamicsUniversity of Waterloo

C dyFaculty of Geography

Russia

Engineering Geodynamics and Monitoring

Russia

Canada

Page 2: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Russia

Bl k SCaspian Sea

GeorgiaBlack Sea Sea

AzerbaijanArmenia

Azerbaijan

S r200

1

Turkey

Iran Terr

a M

OD

IS2

Nov

embe

r

a

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“Kazbek blockages”: the beginning of glacial hazard research in the Caucasus (1860s)

“Kazbek blockages”: the beginning of glacial hazard research in the Caucasus (1860s)g g g ( )

BoleslavStatkowsky

g g g ( )

BoleslavStatkowskyStatkowsky,

a railway engineer andthe first expert

on glacial hazards

Statkowsky,a railway engineer and

the first experton glacial hazards

and debris flowsin the Russian Empire.

and debris flowsin the Russian Empire.

Page 4: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Glacial debris flows: Glacial debris flows: hazard assessmenthazard assessment

Page 5: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

sC

hern

omor

ets

tor:

Ser

gey

Cap

itano

v.. E

dit

Map

: Artu

r Ka

M

Page 6: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Debris flow disaster:Gerkhozhan-Su River, 2000

erno

mor

ets

o: S

erge

y C

heP

hoto

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Debris flow initiation zone just after the event, July 2000

dr A

leyn

ikov

hoto

: Ale

ksan

dPh

Page 8: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Damaged area: mining town of Tyrnyauz

Protective dam destroyed in 1999

ynov

aho

to: I

rina

Sey

Ph

: il N

ikiti

n

Tyrnyauz, 2000 Pho

toM

ikha

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Changes 1 year after the disaster

erno

mor

ets

o: S

erge

y C

hP

hoto

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Tyrnyauz: risk zoningTyrnyauz: risk zoning

rAle

ynik

ov

Para

mon

ov,

oto:

Ale

ksan

d

ikov

, Dm

itry

P

Para

mon

ovPho

ksan

drA

leyn

nko

Map

: Dm

itry

P

omor

ets,

Ale

v, Iv

an K

ryle

n

M

Serg

ey C

hern

mitr

y P

etra

kov

Map

: S Dm

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Monitoring network: repeat photography, geodetic measurements, temperature loggers etc.gg

tin: M

ikha

il N

ikit

copt

er p

hoto

:H

elic

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GLOFs: prediction experienceGLOFs: prediction experienceGLOFs: prediction experienceGLOFs: prediction experience

Page 13: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Database of glacial lakes: 71 lake in the Central Caucasus

hern

omor

ets

na, S

erge

y C

hna

Sha

khm

inM

arin

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NE slope of Mt. Elbrus

Newlakes

om IS

SK

rikal

ev fr

oS

erge

y K

ust 2

005

Imag

e:

19 A

ug

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Change of glacial lakes north of Mt. Elbrus

SPO

T.

alin

ael

lite

imag

e: S

p: O

lga

Tutu

b

Year Year 19571957 19971997 20012001 20052005

Sate

Map

Lake area, 10Lake area, 1033 mm22 40 40 5757 235235 254254

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28 July 2006

erno

mor

ets

o: S

erge

y C

heP

hoto

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17 August 200626 July 200617 August 200626 July 2006er

nom

oret

so:

Ser

gey

Che

Pho

to

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17 August 200617 August 2006er

nom

oret

so:

Ser

gey

Che

Pho

to

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17 August 2006er

nom

oret

so:

Ser

gey

Che

Photo: Sergey Chernomorets

Pho

to

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17 August 2006

ko: I

van

Kry

lenk

erno

mor

ets

Map

:

o: S

erge

y C

he

2020

Pho

to

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29 July 2006er

nom

oret

s

Ч С СЧ С Сo: S

erge

y C

he

Черноморец С.С., Черноморец С.С., Петраков Д.А., Сейнова Петраков Д.А., Сейнова И.Б., Тутубалина О.В. И.Б., Тутубалина О.В. 2121

Pho

to

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19 August 2006er

nom

oret

so:

Ser

gey

Che

Pho

to

Page 23: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Kidy

aeva

Phot

o: V

era

K

July 2008Volume: 800 000 m3 Volume: >1,000.000 m3

P

July 2007Volume: 800,000 m Volume: 1,000.000 m

Mitigation: Mitigation: outburst hazard of Lakeoutburst hazard of Lake BahskaraBahskaraoutburst hazard of Lake outburst hazard of Lake BahskaraBahskara

Page 24: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

osl

av K

ryle

nko

hoto

: Vya

ches

Ph

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120

160

03

80

120

103 ; F,

м2 *1

0

40

V,м

3 *1

dr A

leyn

ikov

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006yeararea volume

Lake Lapa. Area and volume in 2001-2006

aps:

Ale

ksan

d

Changes of Lake Lapa and Lake Mizinchik 800

Ma

Changes of Lake Lapa and Lake Mizinchik as recorded by repeated geodetic surveys. y = 7.9868e0.0515x

R2 = 0.9294400

600

800cu

b.m

0

200

0 20 40 60 80 100

c

Lake Lapa. Relationshipsbetween area and volume 0 20 40 60 80 100

sq.m

between area and volume in 2001-2006Graph: Inna Krylenko

Page 26: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

omor

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Warning system at the Lake Bashkara

Water level automatic sensorData loggerData loggerRadiomodemTransmitterReceiverSiren/ buzzer

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oret

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Glacier disasters around Glacier disasters around Mt. Kazbek, Russia/GeorgiaMt. Kazbek, Russia/Georgia

Page 29: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Mt. Kazbek: transboudary locationTa

rbee

va

hoto

; A

nna

TP

n 19.1

0.20

02.

Vale

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Page 30: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Map of glacial and debris flow hazardKolka Glacier Disaster,

North Ossetia, 20 September 2002North Ossetia, 20 September 2002

Wiped out the New Karmadon villageD t dDestroyed infrastructureTourist facilities ruined

nom

oret

s 125 victims Costs 17 M Euro

130 140 M 3

Origin – remains of Kolka Glacier

Ser

gey

Che

r ~130-140 M m3transported material, including ~110 M m3 ice-debris dam

The largest (by volume) recorded glacier event

Map

:

in the Karmadon depression

gin the world

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Kolka: precatastrophic rock and ice avalanches, August-September 2002

ry P

etra

kov

mor

ets,

Dm

itr

24 rgey

Che

rnom

1

4

57 95 M+

20.0

9.02

utub

alin

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er

36 8

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8

9

ands

at7

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Page 32: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Modelling: DAN-3Dg

hev

aler

y D

roby

sher

pret

atio

n: V

a

tt M

cDou

gall

Pol

kvoy

. Int

e

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ungr

, Sco

t

o: A

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ellin

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to

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e

Page 33: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Processes in the Kolka glacier repository: one year after the disaster

I. Features unchanged in the 2002 disaster: 1.Rock ridges. 2. Summits. 3.ridges. 2. Summits. 3. Rocks and slopes with screes. 4. Denudation ravines on slopes. 5.Screes. 6. Moraines. 7. Morainic ridges 8 GlaciersMorainic ridges. 8. Glaciers and snow fields. II. Features linked to the 2002 disaster: 9. Boundary of the disaster area. А. Glacial erosion forms: 10. Area from where the glacier ice was removed. 11. Surfaces with glacial striation and polish,

Map compiled by S.S. Chernomorets, O.V Tutubalina, D.A. Petrakov on the basis of field

glacial striation and polish, fluting. 12. Ice break-up lines. B. Accumulation forms: 13. Masses of displaced ice. 14. “hummocky moraine” 15 D.A. Petrakov on the basis of field

data and IRS LISS/Pan satellite image of 11.07.2003

III. Changes after the disaster: 17. Active rock falls and screes. 18. Ice falls. 19. Renewed ravines with active rock falls 20 Renewed screes 21 Debris flows of high frequency 22

hummocky moraine 15. Ice blocks pressed into slope depressions and ravines (on 17 August 2003). 16. Displaced

ravines with active rock falls 20. Renewed screes. 21. Debris flows of high frequency. 22. Debris flow deposits. 23. River channels with traces of debris flows. 24. Thermokarst и degradation of “hummocky moraine”. 25. Landslides. 26. Temporary lake in October 2002. 27.Temporary lakes in July 2003.

morainic material with ice inclusions.

Page 34: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

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Карта: составлена И.В. Крыленко, И.Н. КрыленкоS

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Page 35: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Informing the population of vulnerable areasna om

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to: S

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Beware: Kazbek glaciers!Popular booklet in Russian

Page 36: Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g ... · Sergey Chernomorets, Stephen G. Evans, Dmitry Petrakov,,g Olga Tutubalina, Irina Seynova Moscow State University University

Sergey [email protected]

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!