September 2020 · Sep 2020 – Page 1 September 2020 Vietnam by Numbers Classified: Internal •...

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers

Classified: Internal Classified: Internal

• Vietnam by Numbers looks at the key economic and sector data pertinent to Vietnam

primarily through charts.

• The same set of charts and tables will be monitored and presented. Any commentary will be

limited to the key changes that transpired and will be given the ‘less is best’ treatment,

essentially letting the figures do the talking.

• The charts and tables are broadly arranged along the categories of global/regional, domestic,

and sector related. The publication gives readers a quick snapshot of key macro, market, or

sector data and used for internal or external presentations or needs.

GLOBAL MACRO INDICATORS

Fig 1: Global GDP forecasts (%)

Fig 2: OECD Leading Indicator

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Sep 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 3: OECD Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator

Fig 4: VIX, S&P 500

As of Sep 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of Sep 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 5: US National Polls

Fig 6: Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial Average

As of 30/09/2020 Source: RealClearPolitics As of 30/9/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

abc

2.9

-4.9

5.4

1.7

-7.1

4.8 5.5

-0.8

7.4

4.9

-2.0

6.2

2.2

-8.0

4.56.1

1.0

8.2

-10

-5

0

5

10

20

19

E

20

20

E

20

21

E

20

19

20

20

E

20

21

E

20

19

20

20

E

20

21

E

20

19

20

20

E

20

21

E

20

19

20

20

E

20

21

E

20

19

20

20

E

20

21

E

World EU EmergingAsia

ASEAN-5 US China

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

94

96

98

100

102

104

Consumer Confidence Business Confidence

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2008

2009

2010

20

11

2012

2013

20

14

2015

20

16

20

17

2018

2019

20

20

VIX Index (LHS) SPX Index

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Nasdaq DJIA (RHS)

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Fig 7: Brent Oil Price vs. Bbg Industrial Metals Index

Fig 8: Gold & Silver Prices

As of 30/9/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/9/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 9: Bitcoin & Gold Prices

Fig 10: 10 Year Gov’t bond yields (US, EU, JP) vs FED Fund Rate


Fig 11: Price change of S&P 500 & Forward 12M EPS

Fig 12: Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. HY Bond & IG Bond OAS Spread


Fig 13: iTraxx Asia IG CDS Spreads

Fig 14: Global Manufaturing PMI, IP & Trade Growth


ab

115.3

40.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

Bbg Industrial Metals Index Brent oil price USD/barrel

10

15

20

25

30

35

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gold Silver (RHS)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gold Bitcoin (RHS)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

10Y US Gov't Yield 10Y Japan Gov't Yield

10Y EU Gov't Yield FED Fund rate

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

S&P 500 Forward EPS

0

1

2

3

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. HY Bond OAS Spread

Bloomberg Barclays US Corp. IG Bond OAS Spread (RHS)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

iTraxx Asia IG CDS spreads

0

20

40

60

-20

-10

0

10

Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

CPB Trade Vol index YoY CPB World IP YoYJPM global mfg PM SA (RHS)

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Fig 15: ASEAN 4 – Sovereign CDS spreads

Fig 16: Vietnam – Google Mobility Indicator

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

Retail & Recreation Grocery & PharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

As of 30/9/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of Sep 2020 Source: Google, VinaCapital

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PH TH ID VN

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


VIETNAM MACRO INDICATORS

Fig 17: Vietnam – Annual GDP YoY Growth (%)

Fig 18: Vietnam – Quarterly GDP YoY Growth (%)

2020 growth forecast by IMF Source: MPI, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 19: Vietnam - GDP per Capita (USD)

Fig 20: ASEAN – Real GDP YoY Growth (%)

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 21: Vietnam – Real GDP by Industry GDP

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 22: ASEAN – Real GDP (%)

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

7.0

2.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020IMF

2.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

19072052 2109

22152389

25902715

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

7.0

2.7

7.0

5.0

-0.3

6.14.3

-3.8

6.3 5.9

-3.6

6.8

0.7

-3.5

3.0 2.4

-7.7

5.0

-10

-5

0

5

10

20

19

20

20

E

20

21

E

2019

20

20

E

20

21

E

2019

20

20

E

20

21

E

2019

20

20

E

20

21

E

2019

20

20

E

20

21

E

20

19

20

20

E

20

21

E

Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20

GDP, YoY Growth 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.0 7.5 7.0 3.7 0.4 2.6

Agri., Forestry and Fishery 2.6 3.4 2.4 1.4 2.9 3.8 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.0 1.8 2.9

Industry and Construction 5.1 6.4 9.6 7.6 8.0 8.9 8.9 10.2 7.9 5.0 1.7 2.9

Services 6.7 6.2 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.0 7.3 7.3 8.1 3.3 -1.9 2.8

Net indirect taxes 6.4 7.9 5.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.5 6.6 6.4 4.3 1.6 0.7

% share of GDP

Agri., Forestry and Fishery 17.2 16.8 16.1 15.3 14.8 14.3 13.7 13.0 13.0 10.2 17.9 13.1

Industry and Construction 33.1 33.2 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.6 36.2 36.0 37.0 36.8 35.7 36.1

Services 38.4 38.4 38.3 38.6 38.8 38.8 38.9 39.8 39.2 40.5 35.2 39.9

Net indirect taxes 11.4 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.9 12.4 11.3 10.9

VN ID MY PH SG TH VN ID MY PH SG TH

GDP, YoY Growth 7.1 5.2 4.8 6.2 3.4 4.2 7.0 5.0 4.3 5.9 0.7 2.4

Government consumption 6.3 4.8 3.2 13.0 2.9 2.6 5.8 3.2 2.0 10.5 2.8 1.4

Private consumption 7.3 5.1 8.0 5.6 4.2 4.6 7.4 5.0 7.6 5.8 3.7 4.5

Gross Capital Formation 8.7 6.6 1.4 12.9 -3.4 3.8 8.3 4.4 -2.1 1.5 -0.2 2.1

Change in stocks 3.9 55.6 - 46.4 25.0 - 3.8 -34.2 - - -25.6 -61.1

Net Exports: Goods & Services - -51.1 6.2 - 13.3 -32.5 - 167.8 9.7 - -0.7 17.8

% share of GDP

Government consumption 6.4 7.9 12.4 11.1 10.1 14.7 6.3 7.8 12.2 11.6 10.3 14.6

Private consumption 67.7 54.2 56.9 68.5 37.0 51.0 67.9 54.2 58.7 68.4 38.1 52.1

Gross Capital Formation 31.4 33.0 24.6 30.5 25.0 23.9 31.7 32.8 23.1 29.2 24.7 23.9

Change in stocks 3.0 1.9 -0.7 0.3 2.1 2.4 2.9 1.2 -1.0 -0.3 1.6 0.9

Net Exports: Goods & Services - 0.9 6.7 - 27.1 5.9 - 2.2 7.0 - 26.7 6.8

2018 2019

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


c Fig 23: Vietnam – CPI, PPI (YoY, Quarterly, %)

Fig 24: Vietnam – CPI (%)

2.98

0.12

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0

2

4

6

8

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2020 forecast CPI (YoY): 3.0 %

YoY MoM (RHS)

As of Sep 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Sep 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 25: Vietnam – CPI Key Categories (%)

Fig 26: ASEAN – CPI (YoY, %)

As of Sep 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Sep 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 27: Vietnam – CPI Breakdown (%)

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

3.0

2.0

-1.0

-2

0

2

4

6

CPI Core CPI PPI

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

Foods Housing & Const'n MaterialsHealthcare TransportationOthers CPI

2.98

1.3

-1.4

2.4

-0.4-0.5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

VN ID MY PH SG TH

2016 2017 2018 2019 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

CPI, yoy Growth 4.7 2.6 3.0 5.2 2.4 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.0

Core inflation yoy Growth 1.9 1.3 1.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0

Foods and Foodstuffs 2.9 -1.8 5.1 9.2 12.1 12.5 11.9 11.8 10.8

Housing & Const'n Materials 3.3 4.7 1.1 5.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.9

Health and Personal Care 55.7 27.8 3.7 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.6

Transportation -1.1 6.0 0.2 3.5 -23.4 -17.3 -14.0 -13.6 -12.6

% contribution for yoy growth

Foods and Foodstuffs 23.4 -22.2 58.2 38.7 177.3 138.0 132.8 135.1 121.5

Housing & Const'n Materials 11.9 28.0 12.0 11.2 9.2 1.8 0.7 3.3 5.9

Health and Personal Care 51.2 60.5 0.8 8.6 6.9 5.4 5.0 5.4 1.1

Transportation -3.6 15.2 19.6 -3.8 -76.4 -69.1 -47.8 -41.4 -40.8

Others 17.2 18.5 9.3 45.3 -17.1 23.8 9.3 -2.3 12.3

Updated weights of CPI basket 2020-2025

Overal CPI index YoY 100.00

Food and foodstuffs 33.56

Food 3.67

Foodstuffs 21.28

Food services 8.61

Beverage and tobacco 2.73

Garment. footwear. 5.70

Housing & material construction 18.82

Household goods 6.74

Medicaments and health care 5.39

Transportation 9.67

Telecommunication 3.14

Education 6.17

Culture. sport. entertainments 4.55

Other consumer goods & services 3.53

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Fig 28: Vietnam – PMI

Fig 29: Vietnam vs. Asia PMI

As of Sep 2020 Source: IHS Markit, VinaCapital As of Sep 2020 Source: IHS Markit, VinaCapital

Fig 30: Currency (%, vs USD)

Fig 31: DXY Index & VND/USD Exchange Rate


Fig 32: VND Trading Bands

Fig 33: Vietnam – Bond Yields (%)


Fig 34: Vietnam – Government bond issuing rate

Fig 35: Vietnam - Total value of OMO and T-bill issued

Source: SBV, VBMA Source: SBV, Bloomberg

52.2

30

35

40

45

50

55

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

51.2

52.2

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

Jun

-17

Au

g-17

Oct

-17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Ap

r-18

Jun

-18

Au

g-18

Oct

-18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Ap

r-19

Jun

-19

Au

g-19

Oct

-19

De

c-1

9

Feb

-20

Ap

r-20

Jun

-20

Au

g-20

Asia Vietnam

-2.1

0.1

0.0

-5.8

4.2

-7.3

-1.7

1.1

-1.6

-4.5

3.34.6

-2.0

1.4

-1.8

0.8

8.6

-6.0

4.4

0.2

-2.5

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2018

2019

20

20

YT

D

2018

2019

20

20

YT

D

2018

2019

20

20

YT

D

2018

2019

20

20

YT

D

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

2018

2019

2020

YTD

VN ID MY PH SG TH DXY

72

77

82

87

92

97

102

107

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

VND/USD DXY Currency (RHS)

19500

20500

21500

22500

23500

24500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Interbank rate Lower band

Upper Band Unofficial Mkt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


cc Fig 36: Vietnam – Top Imports Products in 9M2020

Fig 37: Vietnam – Top Exports Products in 9M2020

Source: Customs (Preliminary), VinaCapital Source: Customs (Preliminary), VinaCapital

Fig 38: Vietnam – Top Imports Countries in 2019

Fig 39: Vietnam – Top Exports Countries in 2019

Source: Customs, VinaCapital Source: Customs, VinaCapital

Fig 40: Vietnam – Overview of Imports/Exports

Source: Customs, Sep-GSO, VinaCapital

Fig 41: Vietnam - Investment YoY Growth by Sector (%)

Fig 42: Vietnam – Investment Weight By Sector (%)

Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital As of Sep 2020 Source: MOF, CEIC, VinaCapital

abc

24%

14%

6%5%

3%3%3%2%

2%

38%

PCs & electronic items

Machinery & equipment

Mobile &spare parts

Fabrics

Iron & steel

Plastics

Plastic products

Other base metals

Petroleum products

Others

18%

16%

11%

9%6%

4%3%

3%

2%

28%

Mobile &spare parts

PCs & electronic items

Textiles & garments

Machinery & equipment

Footwear

Wood & wooden products

Transportation vehicles

Fishery

Iron & steel

Others

30%

18%

13%

8%

7%

6%

2%

0.5%16%

China

South Korea

ASEAN

Japan

EU

US

India

HongKong

Others

23%

16%

13%10%

8%

7%

3%

2%

2%

16%US

China

EU

ASEAN

Japan

South Korea

HongKong

India

UAE

Others

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Sep 20

Total Imports and Exports 228.3 264.1 298.1 327.6 351.4 428.1 480.6 517.7 388.7

Total Exports 114.5 132.0 150.2 162.0 176.6 215.1 243.7 264.3 202.9

%yoy 18.2 15.3 13.8 7.9 9.0 21.8 13.3 8.4 4.2

Total Imports 113.8 132.0 147.8 165.6 174.8 213.0 236.9 253.4 185.9

%yoy 6.6 16.0 12.0 12.0 5.6 21.9 11.2 7.0 -0.8

Trade Surplus/ Deficit 0.7 0.0 2.4 -3.6 1.8 2.1 6.8 10.9 17.0

Domestic Companies -3.4 -6.5 -7.4 -16.9 -19.7 -22.6 -23.0 -23.6 -10.5

FDI Companies 4.1 6.5 9.7 13.3 21.4 24.7 29.8 34.5 27.5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019YTD-Sep

20

Total investment 11.9 8.9 12.3 11.2 10.2 4.9

State 6.8 7.3 6.9 3.9 2.6 13.7

Non-State 12.8 9.5 17.1 18.5 17.3 2.7

Foreign-Sector 19.9 10.4 12.8 9.6 8.1 -2.4

Total investment/GDP 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.5 33.9 45.4 38.1 36.9 40.2 40.4 39.9 38.0 37.5 35.7 33.3 31.0 33.6

36.1 38.538.1 37.7 38.4 38.7 38.9 40.6 43.3 46.0 44.4

25.8 24.5 21.6 21.9 21.7 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.4 22.9 22.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Investment State Investment Non-state FDI

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Fig 43: VN-Registered&Disbursed FDI, Cumulative YTD (USDbn)

Fig 44: Vietnam – Registered FDI Breakdown in 9M2020


Fig 45: Vietnam – Direct Investment vs Portfolio Investment

Fig 46: Vietnam – Current Account & BoP/GDP (%)

Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 47: Vietnam – Balance of Payment Accounts

Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 48: Vietnam – Foreign Reserves

Fig 49: Vietnam – Debt (as % GDP)

Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital

8.716.0

9.0 10.8 9.1 6.715.1

-6.5

12.5

-8.0

41.7

-13.9 -11.8

18.0

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 9M2020

(%)USD bn

FDI Disbursement (USD bn)FDI Registered (exl. Purchased stocks) (USD bn)%yoy FDI Disb. (RHS)%yoy FDI Regis.(RHS)

47%

20%

6%

15%

2%10% Manufacturing

Elec., Gas, Air Con Supply

Whsle, Retail Trade

Real Estate Activities

Construction

Others

3.8

6.98.1

10.711.6

13.614.9

15.7

6.6

0.8 1.50.1

-0.1

0.22.1

3.0 3.0

-0.8

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q20

Direct investment (USD bn) Portfolio investment (USD bn)

5.5

10.0

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q20

Current Account/GDP (%) BOP/GDP (%)

USD mn 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q20

Current account 8,617 -2,039 625 -1,651 5,769 12,478 2,816

Goods trade balance (f.o.b.) 12,126 7,375 11,042 10,845 16,540 21,221 10,272

Services trade balance -3,950 -4,765 -4,258 -4,030 -3,810 -1,191 -4,198

Investment income (primary) -8,844 -12,150 -14,144 -16,994 -15,818 -16,795 -7,228

Transfers (secondary) 9,285 7,501 7,985 8,528 8,857 9,243 3,970

Financial account 5,571 967 10,726 20,027 8,466 18,971 1,550

Direct investment (net) 8,050 10,700 11,600 13,620 14,902 15,670 6,551

Portfolio investment (net) 93 -65 228 2,069 3,021 2,998 -790

Other investment (net) -2,572 -9,668 -1,102 4,338 -9,457 303 -4,211

Net errors and omissions -5,813 -4,959 -2,961 -5,832 -8,204 -8,195 755

Overall balance 8,375 -6,032 8,390 12,544 6,031 23,254 5,121

Current Account/GDP (%) 4.6 -1.1 0.3 -0.7 2.4 4.8 5.5

BOP/GDP (%) 4.5 -3.1 4.1 5.6 2.5 8.9 10.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Total Reserve Minus Gold (USD bn) (LHS)Import Cover (RHS)

56.154.3

49.2 48.5

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E

Public Debt: % of GDP Government Debt: % of GDP

National External Debt: % of GDP External Debt Cap

Public Debt Cap

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Abc Fig 50: Vietnam – External Debt Breakdown (%)

Fig 51: Vietnam – Budget Deficit (VND bn)

Source: MOF, VinaCapital Source: MOF, VinaCapital

Fig 52: Vietnam – Remittances (USD bn)

Fig 53: ASEAN - Remittances (USD bn)

Source: World Bank, VinaCapital Source: World Bank, VinaCapital

Fig 54: Vietnam – Urbanization rate (%)

Fig 55: Labour Employed Index for Industrial Enterprises (YoY)

Source: CEIC As of Aug 2020 Source: GSO, VinaCapital

Fig 56: Vietnam – Employment & Unemployment Rate

Fig 57: Vietnam – Monthly Minium Wages by Region (VND th)

Source: GSO, VinaCapital Source: GSO, VinaCapital

53.7 49.3 46.9 42.4 41.9

46.3 50.7 53.1 57.6 58.1

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Government Enterprise

-60,765

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

Dec-12 Sep-13 Jun-14 Mar-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Jun-17 Mar-18 Dec-18 Sep-19 Jun-20

Budget Deficit/GDP (Jun 20): -2.4%

4.3

3.4

5.0 5.34.7

5.5 5.7

8.0

6.9

5.7

7.16.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

5

10

15

20

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

VN as % of GDP

17.0

11.7

1.7

35.2

7.1

0

10

20

30

40

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

VN ID MY PH TH

% as of GDP in 2019VN: 6.5%; ID: 1%; MY: 0.5%; PH: 9.3%; TH: 1.3%

18.319.9

37.0

0

10

20

30

40

1949

1954

1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

-2.3-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

No

v-1

4Fe

b-1

5M

ay-1

5A

ug-

15

No

v-1

5Fe

b-1

6M

ay-1

6A

ug-

16

No

v-1

6Fe

b-1

7M

ay-1

7A

ug-

17

No

v-1

7Fe

b-1

8M

ay-1

8A

ug-

18

No

v-1

8Fe

b-1

9M

ay-1

9A

ug-

19

No

v-1

9Fe

b-2

0M

ay-2

0A

ug-

20

51.8

2.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jun 20

Labour force (person mn) Unemployment rate (%, RHS)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

R1 R2 R3 R4 General Min Wage

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Abc Fig 58: Business registration situation

2014: 52,192

2015: 68,347

2016: 81,451

2017: 93,967

2018: 96,611

2019: 102,300

9M2020: 99,000

2014: 41,303 2015: 47,604

2016: 45,097

2017: 49,345

2018: 73,103

2019: 49,400

9M2020: 66,200

Newly established enterprises

Enterprises suspending operation

Source: GSO, VinaCapital

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


VIETNAM BANKING SYSTEM

Fig 59: VND Interbank Deposit Rate by Term

Fig 60: ASEAN – Lending Rate (%)

As of 30/09/2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: SBV, Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 61: Vietnam – Loans/GDP %

Fig 62: ASEAN – Loans/GDP %

Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 63: Vietnam – Mortgage Loans/GDP %

Fig 64: ASEAN – Mortgage Loans/GDP (%, YE19)

Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International

Fig 65: Vietnam – Breakdown Loans (%)

Fig 66: Vietnam – NIM (%)

Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage

abc

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

ON 1W 1M 3M

0

5

10

15

20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

VN ID MY

PH SG TH

95.2 97.0 100.8111.0

122.3130.0 130.3

135.6

0

30

60

90

120

150

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

2017

2018

2019

Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Phillipines Singapore Thailand

4

4.6

5.25.5

5.75.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

5.93.5

39.8

4.1

49.3

23.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

VN ID MY PH SG TH

25.9 30.5 34.2 37.0 40.5 45.5 47.5 49.5 51.5

18.8 14.8 12.3 9.9 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0

52.3 51.6 50.2 49.6 48.3 43.8 42.3 40.8 39.3

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E

Retail loans SOE loans FDI loans Corp loans

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q2020

SOCBs Private Banks 11 Banks

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Fig 67: Vietnam – Credit YoY Growth (%)

21.0

37.7

29.8

10.98.9

12.514.2

17.3 18.3 18.2

13.9 13.7

9.811.1 11.1

0

10

20

30

40

Fig 68: Vietnam – Credit & Deposit YoY Growth (%)

Source: SBV, forecast numbers by VinaCapital Source: SBV, VinaCapital

Fig 69: Vietnam – LDR (%)

Fig 70: Vietnam – NPLs to Gross Loans


Fig 71: Vietnam – CAR (%)

Fig 72: VN – Total Assets & Regulatory Capital YoY Growth (%)

Source: IMF, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: IMF, CEIC, SBV, VinaCapital

Fig 73: Vietnam – Banks ROA (%)

Fig 74: Vietnam – Banks ROE (%)


12.5

14.2

17.318.3

18.2

13.9

13.7

9.7

23.0 19.4

14.3

17.7

14.112.8

13.911.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jun 20

Credit Growth Deposit Growth

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q2020


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q2020


10.310.9

9.4 9.49.9

9.5 9.5

10.6

14.0

12.612.1

12.7

11.8 11.5 11.210.6

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

State-Owned Banks JSC Banks

40.4

18.9 5.413.9

10.3

15.7

16.418.6

10.9

17.7

30.5

34.0

-5.8

27.5

2.8

20.4

10.412.4

12.017.9

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Assets Growth Regulatory Capital Growth

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q2020


0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q2020


Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


abc Fig 75: Vietnam – Fee to Total Income

Fig 76: Vietnam – Reserve Cover


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q2020


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q2020


Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


VIETNAM DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION

Fig 77: Retail Sales & GDP per Capita (USD)

Fig 78: Vietnam - Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence (%)

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of Sep 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 79: ASEAN – Internet Penetration

Fig 80: Vietnam – FMCG Sales by Retail Channel

Source: Internet World Stats May 2020 Source: Euromonitor International

Fig 81: ASEAN – % Share of E-Commerce to Total Retail Sales

Fig 82: ASEAN – YoY Growth of E-Commerce Value

Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International

Fig 83: Vietnam – Number of Supermarkets & Shopping Centers

Fig 84: Vietnam – Motor Vehicle Sales (Incl MBV & Lexus, unit)


-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Retail sales per capita (USD) GDP per capita (USD)

90

100

110

120

130

140

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Mar

-17

Sep

-17

Mar

-18

Sep

-18

Mar

-19

Sep

-19

Mar

-20

Sep

-20

Consumer confidence (RHS) RS (inflation adj.) RS

68.5 171.3 26.4 79.0 5.2 57.0

70.462.6

81.472.1

88.481.7

Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

Internet Users (mn) Internet Penetration (%)

2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019

Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailand

Convenience Stores Hypermarkets SupermarketsModern Grocery Retailers Traditional Grocery E-CommerceOthers

1.11.5 1.8 2.0 2.3

1.72.1

2.83.3

4.7 4.45.2

6.8

8.3

9.2

1.3 1.7 1.9

2.9

4.4

0123456789

10

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19


47.8 48.3

32.9

25.0

18.0

62.6

24.9

36.5

25.4

48.7

14.117.9

31.4

23.8

10.5 12.0

30.2

21.1

53.0

60.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19


-

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

Supermarkets Shopping centers

145,857

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


abc Fig 85: Vietnam – Number of Visitor Arrival

Fig 86: Vietnam – Visitor Arrival YoY Growth by Country (%)

Source: CEIC, VinaCapital 2020: As of Sep 2020 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital

Fig 87: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in HCMC & Hanoi

Fig 88: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price (USD/sqm)

Source: CBRE Source: CBRE

(70.6)

(80)

(30)

20

70

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Sep20

Visitor Arrival (person mn) By Airways (person mn)

By Roads (person mn) % yoy No. of visitors (RHS)

23.916.9

-76.4

8.1 6.4

-58.6

3.615.2

-71.5

12.4

12.2

-73.0

44.3

23.1

-73.6

15.929.8

-71.2

15.8

45.9

-63.2

11.98.6

-69.6-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2018

20

19

YTD

-Sep

20

2018

2019

YTD

-Sep

20

20

18

2019

YTD

-Sep

20

20

18

20

19

YTD

-Sep

20

2018

20

19

YTD

-Sep

20

2018

2019

YTD

-Sep

20

20

18

2019

YTD

-Sep

20

20

18

20

19

YTD

-Sep

20

CN EU JP ML KR TW TH US

12,571 12,458

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Total sold unit New launch

6300

2564 2316

1479 1308

939 939

0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

2016

2017

2018

2019

1H

20

20

2016

2017

2018

2019

1H

20

20

HCMC Hanoi

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


VIETNAM POWER INDUSTRY

Fig 89: Vietnam – Total Power Production & Demand (kWh bn)

Fig 90: Vietnam – Power Production and Purchase 10M2019

Source: EVN Source: EVN

Fig 91: VN – Electricity Generation Capacity by Investors 2018

Fig 92: Vietnam - Electricity Demand by Sector (kWh mn)


Fig 93: Vietnam – Volume Deficiency (kWh bn)

Fig 94: Vietnam – Electricity Imports/Exports (kWh mn)

Source: MOIT Source: MOIT

Fig 95: ASEAN – Electricity Price, Jul 2018 (USDc/kWh)

Fig 96: Average Retail Price – All Users ($c/kWh)

Source: Digitalenergyasia Source: MOIT

115.3

128.6

143.7159.8

174.7

192.9

209.4

127.7143.3

159.7

177.0192.8

212.3

231.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Demand Total Production & Purchase

48.8%

29.1%

18.1%

2.1% 1.4% 0.6%

Coal

Hydro

Gas

Other renewables

Import

Oil

22%

10,540

14%6,938

9%4,496

13%6,195

9%4,208

33%16,196

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

EVN GENCO1 GENCO2 GENCO3 POW Others

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E

Import from China Import from LaosExporting to Cambodia Exporting to Laos

0

5

10

15

20

Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore

Residential Medium company Big companies

Medium industrial Big industrial

5.65.9

6.5

7.1 7.27.5 7.4 7.3 7.4

8.1

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Abc Fig 97: Direct Generators (mn W)

Fig 98: Market Ceiling Price for Competitive Generation Market (USDc/kWh)


Fig 99: Coal Plant Construction Starts in SE Asia

Fig 100: Vietnam – Power Development Plan


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

National system 26,626 30,825 33,440 38,449 41,067 45,145 48,278

Direct trading generators 9,523 11,852 12,868 14,798 17,960 22,536 23,008

% Direct generators 36% 38% 38% 38% 44% 50% 48%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

4.06 4.034.13

4.28

4.83

5.515.34

5.67 5.64 5.57

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


VIETNAM CAPITAL MARKETS

Fig 101: MSCI Index vs. VNIndex (%)

Fig 102: VN-Index & MSCI Global Index Performance


Fig 103: Stock Market Performance (%)

Fig 104: VN-Index & Sector Index Performance (YTD)

-50

-30

-10

10

30

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

VNIndex Index Financials Ex Real EstateReal Estate Consumer StaplesConsumer Discretionary IndustrialsMaterials UtilitiesEnergy Information Technology


Fig 105: PER (x)

Fig 106: Valuation Band of VNIndex

-2std

-1std

+1std

+2std

Mean

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20


Fig 107: ASEAN – Net Profit Growth (%)

Fig 108: VN – Tracking Estimated Net Profit Growth for 2020 (%)


-11.2

24.0

-0.4

-10.4

25.2

0.0

-16.6

15.4

-4.1

-11.3

5.2

-24.3

-9.3

7.7

-5.8

-40

-20

0

20

40

2018 2019 2020YTD

2018 2019 2020YTD

2018 2019 2020YTD

2018 2019 2020YTD

2018 2019 2020YTD

Global Developed Mkt. Emerging Mkt. ASEAN VN-Index

50

65

80

95

110

125

Global Developed Mkt. Emerging Mkt.

ASEAN VN-Index

VN ID MY PH SG TH

2015 6.1 -12.1 -3.9 -3.9 -14.3 -14.0

2016 14.8 15.3 -3.0 -1.6 -0.1 19.8

2017 48.0 20.0 9.4 25.1 18.1 13.7

2018 -9.3 -2.5 -5.9 -12.8 -9.8 -10.8

2019 7.7 1.7 -6.0 4.7 5.0 1.0

2020 YTD -5.8 -22.7 -5.7 -25.0 -23.4 -21.4

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

VN ID MY PH SG TH

2015 12.5 26.8 18.0 19.8 13.3 21.9

2016 16.5 26.2 16.9 19.4 12.2 16.6

2017 19.0 25.1 16.7 23.4 11.0 18.9

2018 16.4 19.4 18.8 18.9 11.1 15.9

2019 16.0 20.0 18.6 17.1 12.2 18.9

2020F 16.4 17.7 17.4 20.5 16.1 21.4

0

6

12

18

24

30

VN ID MY PH SG TH

2019 7.3 12.7 12.9 12.6 7.2 -9.3

2020F -13.2 -15.4 -4.0 -37.1 -41.3 -33.7

2021F 29.7 36.3 8.1 38.2 30.6 30.6

2022F 19.5 19.8 9.3 19.3 20.3 24.2

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Abc Fig 109: Vietnam – Foreign Investors Transactions (USD mn)

Fig 110: Average Daily Turnover (USD mn)

As of 30/9/2020 Source: Fiinpro, VinaCapital As of 30/9/2020 Source:Fiinpro, Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 111: Market Turnover by Investors (VND trn)

Fig 112: Number of Trading Accounts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

Jan

/17

Apr

/17

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Apr

/18

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Apr

/19

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Apr

/20

Jul/

20

Retail Institution No. new account-RHS

Source: Fiinpro, Bloomberg Source: VDS

Fig 113: Number of State Divestment 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan

0 100 200 300 400 500

Total

2020

1H19

2018

2017

Planned divestment Actual divestment

Fig 114: Number of SOE IPOs 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan

Source: Fiinpro Source: Fiinpro

2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD-Sep20

Buy 3,862.2 7,303.2 11,437.8 7,004.7 5,768.8

Sell (4,195.6) (6,163.2) (9,566.9) (6,715.7) (5,872.2)

Net (333.4) 1,140.0 1,870.9 289.1 (103.5)

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

214.2

430.4268.1

90.1

617.9735.1

1,780.9

0250500750

10001250150017502000

2018

2019

YTD

-20

20

2018

2019

YTD

-20

20

2018

2019

YTD

-20

20

2018

2019

YTD

-20

20

2018

2019

YTD

-20

20

2018

2019

YTD

-20

20

VN ID MY PH SG TH

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Feb

/15

May

/15

Au

g/15

No

v/15

Feb

/16

May

/16

Au

g/16

No

v/16

Feb

/17

May

/17

Au

g/17

No

v/17

Feb

/18

May

/18

Au

g/18

No

v/18

Feb

/19

May

/19

Au

g/19

No

v/19

Feb

/20

May

/20

Au

g/20

Local retail Foreign retial Local institution Foreign institution

0 50 100 150

Total

2020

1H19

2018

2017

Planned IPO Actual IPO

Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


SECTOR VALUATION BANDS

• Historical PER, PBR and/or EV/EBITDA valuation bands of sectors under VinaCapital coverage

as of end-Sep 30, 2020.

Fig 115: Aviation – PER

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 116: Aviation – EV/EBITDA

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 117: Banks – PER

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 118: Banks – PBR

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 119: Brokers – PER

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 120: Brokers – PBR

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10


Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Fig 121: Consumer Discretionary – PER

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 122: Consumer Discretionary – EV/EBITDA

0

5

10

15

20

25


Fig 123: Consumer Staples – PER

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 124: Consumer Staples – EV/EBITDA

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital

Fig 125: Industrial Parks – PER

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 126: Industrial Parks – PBR

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0


Fig 127: Materials & Cyclicals – PER

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 128: Materials & Cyclicals – EV/EBITDA

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Fig 129: Oil & Gas – PER

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 130: Oil & Gas – EV/EBITDA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Fig 131: Ports & Logistics – PER

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 132: Ports & Logistics – EV/EBITDA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Fig 133: Property (Non Vingroup) – PER

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 134: Property (Non Vingroup) – PBR

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


Fig 135: Property (Vingroup Family) – PER

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 136: Property (Vingroup Family) – PBR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Sep 2020 –

September 2020

Vietnam by Numbers


Fig 137: Tech & Telecom – PER

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 138: Tech & Telecom – EV/EBITDA

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Fig 139: Utilities – PER

0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig 140: Utilities – EV/EBITDA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Sep 2020 –

Classified: Internal

September 2020

Classified: Internal

Vietnam by Numbers

Disclaimer

© 2020 VinaCapital Fund Management JSC (VCFM). All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and is being issued by

VCFM or one of its affiliates for internal distribution in Vietnam. The information herein is based on public and other sources

believed to be reliable. Except for information about VCFM, VCFM makes no representation about the accuracy of such

information. Opinions, estimates and projections expressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date

of publication only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of VCFM and are subject to change without notice. VCFM has

no obligation to update, amend or in any way modify this report or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any of

the subject matter or opinion, projection or estimate contained within it changes or becomes inaccurate.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy

or to sell any securities or any option, futures, or other derivative instruments in any jurisdiction. Nor should it be construed as

an advertisement for any financial instruments. Officers of VCFM may have a financial interest in securities mentioned in this

report or in related instruments. This research report is prepared for general circulation and for general information only. It

does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who may receive

or read this report. Investors should note that the prices of securities fluctuate and may rise and fall. Past performance, if any,

is no guide to the future.

Financial instruments discussed in this note may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own financial

decisions based on their independent financial advisors as they believe necessary and based on their particular financial

situation and investment objectives. This report may not be copied, reproduced, published, or redistributed by any person for

any purpose without the express permission of VCFM in writing.

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