September 2016 - semenindonesia.com · New Players 2016. 3 Opportunity Regional Cement Market....

27
September 2016

Transcript of September 2016 - semenindonesia.com · New Players 2016. 3 Opportunity Regional Cement Market....

September 2016

2

• Design Capacity : 89.7 mt

• Production Capacity : 75.5 mit

• Domestic Growth : 5.5%

• Domestic Utilization: 87%

•Supply

Domestic : 65 mt

Export : 4.0 mt

Import : 1.5 mt

Domestic Capacity (2016)

2016F

Cement companies in Indonesia

1. Semen Indonesia 30 mt

2. Semen Andalas 1.6 mt

3. Semen Baturaja 2.0 mt

4. Indocement TP 25.9 mt

5. Holcim Indonesia 12.1 mt

6. Semen Bosowa 6.0 mt

7. Semen Kupang 0.5 mt

8. Semen Jui Shin 2.0 mt

9. Semen Puger 0.3 mt

10. Semen Merah Putih 4.0 mt

11. Semen Anhui Conch 1.7 mt

12. Siam Cement 1.8 mt

13. Semen Pan Asia 1.8 mt

TOTAL 89.7 mio ton

New Players 2016

3

Opportunity Regional Cement Market

4Source: Company data

Sales volume

Million tonnes Aug-16 Aug-15 Change (%) 8M16 8M15 Change (%)

Indonesia

Semen Indonesia 1.38 1.28 8.1% 8.78 8.61 2.0%

Semen Padang 0.63 0.56 13.8% 3.95 3.87 2.3%

Semen Tonasa 0.50 0.47 6.9% 3.49 3.29 5.9%

Total domestic 2.51 2.30 9.2% 16.22 15.77 2.9%

Exports 0.09 0.03 187.9% 0.36 0.35 4.1%

Total volume from Indonesia 2.60 2.33 11.6% 16.58 16.11 2.9%

Vietnam

Domestic Vietnam 0.13 0.12 7.5% 1.15 1.05 9.8%

Exports 0.04 0.04 10.6% 0.50 0.51 -3.5%

Total volume from Vietnam 0.17 0.16 8.2% 1.64 1.56 5.4%

Total volume 2.77 2.49 11.3% 18.23 17.67 3.1%

5

Source: Company data, Indonesia Cement Association

Indonesia sales volume

Semen Indonesia:• Bag 76.4%• Bulk 23.6%

Industry:• Bag 76.8%• Bulk 23.2%

Domestic consumption (million tons)

Area Aug-16 Aug-15 Change (%) 8M16 8M15 Change (%)

Jakarta 0.45 0.44 4.4 3.08 3.42 (9.9)

Banten 0.28 0.30 (7.6) 1.89 2.09 (9.7)

West Java 0.83 0.81 1.8 5.55 5.56 (0.2)

Central Java 0.80 0.70 14.3 4.85 4.34 11.6

Yogyakarta 0.10 0.09 8.9 0.60 0.60 0.8

East Java 0.79 0.78 1.4 5.32 5.00 6.3

Total Java 3.25 3.12 4.1 21.29 21.02 1.3

Sumatera 1.36 1.15 17.6 8.40 7.72 8.8

Kalimantan 0.42 0.39 5.8 2.69 3.05 (11.8)

Sulawesi 0.47 0.41 14.6 3.39 2.79 21.5

Nusa Tenggara 0.36 0.31 17.0 2.32 2.18 6.6

Maluku & Papua 0.12 0.11 9.9 0.98 0.86 13.6

Total outside Java 2.72 2.37 14.7 17.78 16.60 7.1

Total Indonesia 5.97 5.49 8.7 39.07 37.62 3.9

Export

Cement 0.04 0.03 34.7 0.30 0.37 (17.7)

Clinker 0.15 0.13 14.2 0.72 0.30 139.7

Total export 0.19 0.16 18.2 1.02 0.67 52.8

Grand total 6.16 5.65 9.0 40.09 38.29 4.7

6

Retail (residential) sector is the largest consumer of cement in Indonesia

Bag77%

Bulk

23%

• Ready-mix (infrastructure):± 60%

• Fabricator (pre-cast, fiber cement, cement based industry):± 35%

• Projects (mortar, render):± 5%

• Housing:± 90%

• Cement based industry:± 10%

±

±

Source: Internal Research

Domestic market consumption

7

Market by Geography

Source: Company data, Central Bureau of Statistics

Domestic Market ShareSemen Indonesia’ market destinations

National cement distribution Population distribution

8

Current overcapacity condition

Source: Internal Research, Indonesia Cement Association

9

Source: Company data, Indonesian Cement Association & BPS Statistic

Long-term demand growth 6% pa

10

Infrastructure Spending Planned for 2015 – 2019 (USD Bn)

Infrastructure Development

Commercial and Industrial

High growth in retail, commercial and

institutional sector in urban and semi-urban area

High growth industry segment (precast, light brick,

cement fiber, pave, ready mixed concrete)

Housing

Population Growth

Rising per Capita Income

Mass urbanization

Cement Consumption (kg/capita)

Rapidly Growing Productive Population

Key factors supporting domestic cement demand

172 42106

113 433

CentralGovt

RegionalGovt

SOEs Private Total

Potential Market

The fourth largest population in the world: 240

millions people (2014)

Demographic Bonus

11

Arising infrastructure activities

Source: Company data, Indonesia Cement Association

12

Strategic Projects

These strategic projects are to ensure the Company’ position as the market leader.

Strategic Projects CapacityInvestment

(US$mn)

Construction

Start Completion

Indarung VI-

Sumatera Barat

3.0

Mt352 Q2-2013 Q4-2016

Rembang –

Jawa Tengah

3.0

Mt403 Q2-2013 Q4-2016

Grinding mill

Jawa Barat

2.0

Mt61.1 Q2-2015 Q4-2016

Waste Heat

Recovery Power

Generation

30.6 MW 49.3 Q4-2014 Q4-2016

Projects completed in 2015:

• Packing Plant Pontianak

• Packing Plant Balikpapan

• Packing Plant Lampung

• Grinding Plant Dumai

• New Coal Mill Tonasa

Rembang Project – Central Java

Pre-heater area

Indarung Project – West Sumatra

Clinker Storage

13

Integrated Cement Plant 4 location

Kiln 13 Unit

Cement Mill 22 Unit

Grinding Plant 2 location

Cement Mill 4 Unit

Warehouse 30 location

Packing Plant 25 location

Sea Port 12 location

Kiln 1 unit

Cement Mill1 unit

Kiln 4 unit

Cement Mill 6 unit

Kiln 4 unit

Cement Mill 9 unit

Grinding Plant

1 unit Cement Mill

Kiln 4 unit

Cement Mill 6 unitGrinding Plant

3 unit Cement Mill

Our facilities

14

Financial Summary – First half 2016

EBITDA

Net profit

In Rpbn 6M16 6M15 Change

Revenue 12,470 12,640 -1.3%

Cost revenue 7,483 7,635 -2.0%

Gross profit 4,988 5,006 -0.4%

Operating expenses 2,373 2,212 7.3%

Operating income 2,615 2,794 -6.4%

EBITDA 3,405 3,515 -3.1%

Pre-tax profit 2,574 2,798 -8.0%

Net profit 1,965 2,185 -10.1%

EPS (Rp) 331 368 -10.1%

Ratio

EBITDA margin 27% 28% 0%

Gross margin 40% 40% 0%

Interest coverage - x 21 20 1

Cost ratio 79% 78% 1%

Net debt to equity 0.09 0.04 5%

Debt to equity 0.18 0.16 1%

Debt to EBITDA 0.68 0.56 12%

Receivable turnover - days 53 48 5

15

Balance Sheet

Cash balance (Rpbn) Total debt (Rpbn)

Debt/EBITDA (x) Net Debt/Equity

16

Margin & Returns

Return on Equity (%) Return on Assets (%)

EBITDA/t (US$/t) Receivables Turnover (days)

17

Cost structure

Energy prices in US$/unit

Cash COGS Rp000/tRp000/t 6M16 6M15 Change

Raw materials 35 37 -6%

Fuel 111 117 -5%

Electricity 97 106 -8%

Labor 57 52 9%

Maintenance 53 54 -3%

Depreciation 54 49 10%

GA,tax,insurance 20 21 -5%

Packaging 29 27 7%

Transportation 71 84 -15%

Others 22 48 -55%

Cost of goods sold 548 595 -8%

Selling expense 103 93 11%

G&A 74 73 1%

Total cost 580 607 -5%

18

EBITDA margin vs utilisation rate

Source: Company data

19

EBITDA margin vs oil and coal prices

Source: Company data

20

Development New Industrial Estates is a catalyst for cement demand

Semen Indonesia Packing PlantNew Industrial Estate Area

21

Infrastructure Projects (2015 – 2019)

If 1% from total project value were spent for cement, we estimate cement requirement for these projects of around 10-12 mt per annum.

Infrastructure budget cut Rp7tn for 2016, but not affecting main trans road in Papua and Java.

Sector Amount % of total

(Rptn)

Road infrastructure 733 15%

Railway infrastructure 226 5%

Sea transportation 591 12%

Air transportation 144 3%

Land transportation 47 1%

Urban transportation 86 2%

Electricity infrastructure 1,000 21%

Oil & gas infrastructure 507 11%

Telecommunication and Information infrastructure 280 6%

Water resources 451 9%

Drinking and waste water 403 8%

Housing 328 7%

Total 4,796 100%

Annual spending 959 20%

APBN-P 2016 2,083

APBN-P for infrastructure 2016 314 33%

Private portion 645 67%

Source: Bappenas

22

Infrastructure Spending in State Budget

Source: Ministry of Finance

Amount in Rp trillion 2017 2015

APBN APBN-P APBN APBN-P

Economic infrastructure 336.9 307.1 302.3 280.0

Ministrial spending 161.0 151.2 165.5 196.4

Ministry of Public Work and Public Housing 102.9 94.7 101.7 111.1

Ministry of Transportation 44.9 39.9 45.5 59.1

Ministry of Agriculture 2.9 4.1 5.3 8.9

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resoures 3.8 3.7 4.6 8.1

Non-ministrial spending 2.7 5.9 5.3 6.8

Transfer to Region and Village Fund 133.7 88.0 83.4 41.0

Payment Funding 39.5 62.1 48.3 35.7

Social infrastructure 5.5 5.7 6.5 6.5

Infrastructure support 4.2 4.2 4.4 3.9

Ministry of Agrarian & Spatial Planning 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.3

Ministry of Industry 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3

Total 346.6 317.1 313.5 290.3

2016

23

Instrastructure funding is priority

The infrastructure is the government’ priority

Gets funding priority despite tax revenue not achieving target

Key risks are more on the project risks such as land acquisition.

Increasing government’ debt to around US$137bn by end of 2015

Government’s securities also increased to around Rp1.37tn by end of 2015

24

Projection of Toll Road Development (2015 – 2019)

25

BRIEF HISTORY SMGR CAPACITY BUILD-OUT (MM TONS)

31,8 mn tons

Semen Indonesia highlights

1957 : Inauguration of Gresik I, installed capacity of

250,000 ton cement per annum

1991 : Initial Public Offering, Market Cap.: IDR0.63tn,

resulting shareholding structure post IPO:

●Government of Republic of Indonesia: 73%

●Public: 27%

1995 : Acquisition of PT Semen Padang (Persero) and

PT Semen Tonasa (Persero)

1998 : Cemex became a strategic partner, Market Cap.:

IDR4.9tn

2006 : Blue Valley Holdings bought Cemex’s 24.9%

stake in SMGR, Market Cap.: IDR21.5tn

2010 : In March 31, Blue Valley Holdings sold all of its

stake ownership in SMGR, Market Cap per April 30,

2010: IDR72.1tn

2011 : Total installed capacity of 20.00mm tons, Market

Cap per June 29, 2012: IDR67.0tn

2012 : Acquisition of Thang Long Cement Vietnam, Total

installed capacity of 2.3mm tons, Market Cap Dec 19th,

2012: IDR91.9tn

2013: Transformed to PT Semen Indonesia (Persero)

Tbk as strategic holding co.

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

1957

1970

1980

1984

1985

1986

1990

1995

1997

1998

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

26

Semen Indonesia as strategic holding company

99,9% 99,9% 70,0%55,0%

SP ST TLCC

PT United Tractors Semen Gresik

97,0%PT SGG Energi Prima

60,0%PT Industri KemasanSemen Gresik

65,0%PT Kawasan IndustriGresik

99,99% PT SGG Prima Beton

24,95% PT Varia Usaha

25% PT Swadaya Graha

17,6%

99,9%

SG

NO

N C

EMEN

T C

OM

PAN

Y

50,0%PT Krakatau SemenIndonesia

CEMENT COMPANY

Komposisi Pemegang Saham Per 31 Desember 2015

85%

PT Eternit Gresik

PT SISI

No Shareholders %

1 Government RI 51.01

2 Foreign Institution 36.94

3 Foreign Individual 0.03

4 Domestic Institution 10.58

5 Domestic Individual 1.43

27

IMPORTANT NOTICE

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF, AND IS NOT MADE IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY OFFER FOR SALE OR SUBSCRIPTION OF OR SOLICITATION,RECOMMENDATION OR INVITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES NOR SHALL IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTIONWITH ANY CONTRACT, COMMITMENT OR INVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER.

THE SLIDES USED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND HAVE BEEN PREPARED AS A SUPPORT FOR ORAL DISCUSSIONS ONLY. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED INTHIS PRESENTATION IS BEING PRESENTED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON, IN WHOLE OR INPART.

This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations and forecast about future events. Such statements involve known / unknown risks uncertainties and other factors,which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Such factors include, among others:

● economic, social and political conditions in Indonesia, and the impact such conditions have on construction and infrastructure spending in Indonesia;

● the effects of competition;

● the effects of changes in laws, regulations, taxation or accounting standards or practices;

● acquisitions, divestitures and various business opportunities that we may pursue;

● changes or volatility in inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates;

● accidents, natural disasters or outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as avian influenza, in our markets;

● labor unrest or other similar situations; and

● the outcome of pending or threatened litigation.

We can give no assurance that our expectations will be attained.

DISCLAIMER

The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents make any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof.

We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claim, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a result of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omission or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.

Thank You

Main Office:

Main Building of Semen GresikJln. Veteran Gresik 61122 – IndonesiaPhone: (62-31) 3981731 -2, 3981745

Fax: (62-31) 3983209, 3972264

Representative Office:

The East Building, 18 floorJl. Lingkar Mega Kuningan Blok E 3.2 No. 1,JAKARTA – 12950Telp.: 021 – 5261174, 5261175; Faks : 021 – 5261176

www.semenindonesia.com