Sept 2011 final

31
Economic Indicators: Challenges for the 7 Rivers Region

Transcript of Sept 2011 final

Page 1: Sept 2011 final

Economic Indicators:

Challenges for the 7 Rivers

Region

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I am an economist.

I am not a prophet, visionary, seer, oracle or a

fortune teller.

Those folks have respectable jobs.

Non-Standard Disclaimer:

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-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1 12 23 34 45

Cumulative Monthly Employment Decline from NBER Peak (pct)

1990

2001

2007

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12.4

12.6

12.8

13.0

13.2

13.4

13.6

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Real Gross Domestic Product :Trillions of 2000 Dollars

Revised Data

Original Data

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-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

0 4 8 12 16

Cumulative % Decline in Quarterly GDP from Peak

1981

2001

1991

2007

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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08

Percent of unemployed by

unemployment duration

< 5 Weeks

5 to 14 Weeks

15 to 26 Weeks

> 26 Weeks

Source: BLS

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2450.0

2500.0

2550.0

2600.0

2650.0

2700.0

2750.0

2800.0

2850.0

2900.0

2950.0

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14

Min

nesota

Non-F

arm

Em

plo

ym

ent:

Thousands

The Dayton Promise?: 240,000Jobs

Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o

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2550.0

2600.0

2650.0

2700.0

2750.0

2800.0

2850.0

2900.0

2950.0

3000.0

3050.0

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14

Wis

consin

Non-F

arm

Em

plo

ym

ent:

Thousands

The Walker Promise: 250,000 Jobs

Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o

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50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008

Percentage - Employment to Population Ratio

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1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11

Monthly Job Separations by Type in Millions

Quits

Layoffs and Discharges

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1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11

Monthly Job Openings in Millions

Openings

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- 10 20 30 40 50

very satisfied

somewhat satisfied

somewhat dissatisfied

very dissatisfied

When it comes to your current job security, are you...

Fall 2011

Spring 2011

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- 10 20 30 40 50 60

Pretty much hit the bottom

Still a ways to go

Other

Thinking about the country's economic conditions...

Fall 2011

Spring 2011

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-35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0%

5/17/19404/14/198811/6/20085/13/194011/5/2008

11/19/200810/7/2008

9/3/194611/20/2008

8/8/20114/14/20005/28/1962

10/22/20088/31/19989/26/19555/14/19405/21/1940

1/8/198810/13/1989

9/29/200810/27/1997

9/17/200110/9/200812/1/2008

10/15/200810/26/198710/19/1987

Bad Days for the Dow Jones Industrials Average: Percentage Change from Previous

Close

August 8, 2011

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40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

April 2002April 2003April 2004March 2006April 2007***August 2008***February 2009***February 2010***April 2011***

7 Rivers Consumer Sentiment

7 Rivers

National

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0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11

Number of Building Permits in La Crosse MSA

Total Permits

Single Unit Permits

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Broken Windows Fallacy

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80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices

Phoenix

Minneapolis

7 Rivers Region

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90.0

110.0

130.0

150.0

Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11

Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices

Phoenix

Minneapolis

7 Rivers Region

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0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

1997-Jan 1999-Jan 2001-Jan 2003-Jan 2005-Jan 2007-Jan 2009-Jan 2011-Jan

Number of Single Family Listings Sold Monthly 7 Rivers Region

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100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1,000.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Total Number of Foreclosures Filed in: Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse, Monroe, Trempealeau, Vernon Counties

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50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011*

La Crosse Foreclosures Filed

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Thanks.