SENTINEL: Social and Environmental Trade-offs in African Agriculture

Tagel Gebrehiwot, Ethiopian Development Research Institute

SAIRLA Second National Learning Alliance Workshop

ILRI, Addis Ababa, 23 November 2017

Project Overview

Our project will work in three countries Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia

51 months : 1 October 2017 – 31 December 2021

10 partners – 4 in SSA, 6 in UK

Total FEC GBP 6,406,975

Project Overview

The project will work on the interconnections between three key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDGs has interactions with others, which can take the shape of trade-offs and synergies

The Challenge

Tripling Food Demand

Special challenge in Africa – tripling food demand!!! 2010-2050

Special challenge in Africa – tripling food demand!!! 2010-2050

How agriculture should develop to achieve food security in the context of rapidly growing demand for food (150% by 2050)?

Domestic cereal production increased by 349%

This was achieved through a remarkable 139% increase in crop yields and an 88% increase in the production area

Franks, P et al. (2017) Reconciling forest conservation with food production in sub-Saharan Africa: case studies from Ethiopia, Ghana and Tanzania. IIED Research Report, London. http://pubs.iied.org/17605IIED

The Challenge – Ethiopia

The Challenge – Ethiopia

The CRGE strategy identified significant trade-offs between increasing crop production and forest conservation:

According to Ethiopia’s CRGE strategy,

Agricultural land will need to expand by 3.9% per year in order to achieve the growth targets set for the agriculture sector from 2010 to 2030.

Under a BAU scenario, total cropland is projected to increase by 14.4 million hectares by 2030,

55% of this agricultural land will be converted from forests (GoE, 2011).

The Challenge

IFPRI’s IMPACT Model (2015) projects that Ethiopia’sdomestic demand for cereals in 2050 will be 2.62 timeshigher than in 2010

So if it looks as though SDG2 via domestic food production canonly be achieved through further agricultural expansion….:

• How and where is this expansion likely to happen?

Likelihood of agriculture expansion and overlap with forest land

Of the area of moderate-to-high suitability or likelihood of being cultivated, 75% is inareas with some forest cover (more than 0 per cent cover in 2007), and 50% in areas with a forest cover of more than 50 per cent.

Source: University of Edinburgh

Trade-offs

THE CHALLENGE

Policies, investments and

practices based on flawed assumption

Negative social and environmental impacts on poor rural people

ResearchersResearch

users

No co-creation of knowledge

1. Enhanced understanding of the impacts, risks and trade-offs withinand between social, economic and environmental dimensions ofdifferent agricultural development pathways that relate to SDG 2, 10& 15

2. Enhanced relationships between UK research organisations andpartners in Africa to address challenges around the agriculture-environment nexus, supported by a nurturing organsationalenvironment and culture that foster responsiveness to & engagementwith stakeholders

3. Enhanced capacity of UK and African researchers and theirorganisations to co-develop excellent and relevant interdisciplinaryresearch on these impacts, risks and trade-offs

Objectives

Enhanced Knowledge

1. Past and present agricultural development

2. Scenarios for food systems and land use change

3. Impacts, risks and trade-offs

Positive social and environmental impacts on poor rural people

Managed trade-offs

OUR VISION

More effective and equitable investments and practices based on informed assumption

ResearchersResearch

users

Effective co-creation of knowledge

Enhanced Relationships

Enhanced Research Capacity

Enhanced Knowledge