Senior Research Associate Complex Built Environment Systems Group (CBES)
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Bartlett School of Graduate Studies A policy directed framework for moving from ‘unintended consequences’ to intended co- benefits and explicit trade- offs Senior Research Associate Complex Built Environment Systems Group (CBES) Bartlett School of Graduate studies Alex Macmillan
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A policy directed framework for moving from ‘unintended consequences’ to intended co-benefits and explicit trade-offs. Alex Macmillan. Senior Research Associate Complex Built Environment Systems Group (CBES) Bartlett School of Graduate studies . Current framing of policy. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Senior Research Associate Complex Built Environment Systems Group (CBES)
Bartlett S
chool of Graduate
Studies
A policy directed framework for moving from ‘unintended
consequences’ to intended co-benefits and explicit trade-offs
Senior Research Associate Complex Built Environment Systems Group (CBES)Bartlett School of Graduate studies
Alex Macmillan
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Current framing of policy
Single focus policies “unintended” effects– Across sectors– At different time and geographical scales– Policy formulation and implementation
Need for different approaches
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Ecosystem sustainability
Societal wellbeing
Functioning economy
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Intervening in the housing system
Methods
1. Participatory System Dynamics (SD) Modelling2. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
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Participatory SDM process
1. Recruitment of stakeholders
2. Interviews3. Development of concept
model4. Development of
simulation model5. Simulations
6. Policy and research insights
5 Desired outcomes
Evidence of problems thatrelate to achievement of
outcomes
Representation of systemstructure and behaviour
Dynamic model
Scenarioexperimentation
Policy design
SYSTEM STRUCTURE SYSTEM BEHAVIOUR
Perception ofsystem structure
Comparison &reconci l i ation
Representation ofsystem s tructure
Menta l models ,experience, l i terature
Diagramming &des criptive tools
Behaviour ofproblems over time
Compari son &reconci l i ation.
Exploration ofmodel behaviour
Computers imulation tools
Li terature &experience
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Example: Interviews
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Example: causal diagrams
ventilation
temperature
mold growth
crowding
infectiousrespiratory illness
asthma
disposablewealth
days off work
income
heating
indoor clothesdrying
damp
relative humidity
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+
+
--
pathogenexposure
+
+
+
++
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+
-
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+
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R
R
R
R
can't afford a dryer
too many peoplebreathing
sleeping in one roomto stay warm
vicious cycle ofsickness and poverty
dryer ownershipand use
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Example: scenario simulation
10:59 a.m. Mon, 10 Sep 2012
Per capita GHG emissions f rom commuting (metric tons)
Page 81991 2006 2021 2036 2051
Years
1:
1:
1:
0.0
2.5
5.0Per capita CO2eq t: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 -
1
1 1
12
22
23
3
3
3
44
4
4
5 5
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Air pollution outcomes
Page 41991 2006 2021 2036 2051
Years
1:
1:
1:
0
10
20annual air pollution mortality : 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 -
11
1 1
2
2
2 2
3
3
3 3
4
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4 4
5
5
5 5
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Contact
Alex MacmillanComplex Built Environment Systems GroupUniversity College [email protected]
