SEMI Equipment & Materials Market Outlook

Terry TsaoPresidentSEMI Taiwan & SE Asia

2009 AOI Forum, Show and ContestNovember 5th, 2009

About SEMI• A global industry association

established in 1970 (39 years industry service experience)

• Serves members interests in the following industries:– Semiconductor– Flat Panel Display– Photovoltaic/Tech-Energy– Nanotechnology– MEMS

SEMI services include:• International Standards• Industry & Market Information• Public Policy Lobbying• Industry Networking & Collaboration• Marketing Promotion

SEMI is a member-driven association composed of 2,000 members globally.

SEMI creates connections to:• Information • Global Markets• People—from governments to customers

SEMISEMI® : The Global Association: The Global Association

HsinchuHsinchu

SeoulSeoul TokyoTokyo

SingaporeSingapore

BeijingBeijing

San JoseSan Jose BrusselsBrussels

MoscowMoscow

Washington DCWashington DC

ShanghaiShanghaiHsinchuHsinchuBangaloreBangalore

SEMI International Standards• Objective:

To facilitate the development of the industry's most respected standards to move new and existing markets forward efficiently and profitably

– 45 Standards Committees, plus 200+ working groups focusing on 20 topics

– 780+ Standards and Safety Guidelines available

– 2000+ standards volunteers spread over North American, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea

– Currently in use globally by semiconductor, FPD, photovoltaic and MEMS industries

Expositions and Programs

Market Research• China Domestic Fab Equipment

Suppliers• China Semiconductor Wafer Fab and

Foundry Outlook• China TFT-LCD Industry Report• Equipment Market Data Subscription• Fab Capacity Report• Fab Construction Monitor• Fab Equipment Monitor• Fab Futures• Fab Futures LE• Flat Panel Fab• Global Nanoelectronics Markets and

Opportunities• Global Semiconductor Packaging

Materials Outlook• Historical Data Report• Material Market Data Subscription• SEMI European Microelectronics

Study

Member Only Section – Resources for SEMI Member• SEMI Website: http://www.semi.org• PV Group: http://www.pvgroup.org/• Login by company domain to access free report

Policy Advocacy and LobbyingDate: May 22, 2009Purpose: Lobbying of Bill on Renewable EnergyAttendees: SEMI PV Committee7 Key Requests:Material Import Tax Waive,Project Financing, National Certification, Feed-in-Tariff and so on.

Networking Platform• Business Matching• Top Executive Gathering

– Conferences– President Reception– VIP Dinner– SEMI Golf Club

• Overseas Delegation• Committee Gathering

SEMI Networking Platform— Business Matching

Business Recruitment for Southern Taiwan Science Park Administration(Japan)

Company Tour: SMC(Japan)

Business Matching for ULVAC(Japan)

Business Matching for Silicon Border(Taiwan)

PV Japan (Japan)

SEMI Networking Platform— SEMI CEO ClubDate: May 13th, 2009Venue: Ambassador Hotel, Hsinchu Attendees : 51 Executive ManagersEvent Purpose:

– To enhance the width and depth of the interaction between members and invite more industrial players to join the platform

SEMI Networking Platform— SEMI Golf Club• Total: 68 Members of Golf ClubRecent Golf Game: • Date : 10 October 2009• Attendance: 134 players• Venue：Sunrise Golf Club• Players: Executives from foundries (TSMC,

UMC, PSC, SPIL and so on) and equipment and material suppliers.

Marketing Consulting• PR/Media Planning & Arrangement• Database Marketing/Visitor Promotion• E-promotion : Website AD, SEMI NEWS, eDM• Speaking Opportunity• Customized Marketing Events Planning

Event Purpose• Educational construction• To serve members’ needs• To provide complete PV industrial training• To cultivate new talents for the burgeoning PV industry• To help the registrants to create more job opportunities with PV Committee’s

endorsementClass Content• Course I : Basic Theory of PV Cell• Course II : PV Certification

– Europe, USA PV Certification System – PV Module Certification System– PV Patent Map

• Course III : Manufacture of PV Cell– Si Material and Factory Tour– Wafer Base Manufacture– Thin Film Manufacture

• Course IV : Module and System Application• Course V : Equipment and Measurement

PV Academia

Overall Semiconductor Industry Outlook

Semiconductor Equipment Market

Semiconductor Material Market

Summary

Semiconductor Cycles

3345 49 51 55 60

77102

144132137126

150

204

139141166

228

256249

196222208

248

213

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$30019

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

09 F

2010

F20

11 F

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Semiconductor Revenue Annual Growth

Source: SIA/WSTS historical year end reports, SIA June 2009 Forecast

Glo

bal S

emic

ondu

ctor

Rev

enue

US

$B

(bar

gra

ph)

Ann

ual G

row

th %

(lin

e gr

aph)

2010 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts

Source: SEMI

13.1%

10.6%

9.6%

7.3%

6.5%

15.1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

VLSI Research (Jun09)

iSuppli (Jul 09)

Gartner (Jun 09)

Henderson Ventures(Sep 09)

WSTS (Jun 09)

SIA (Jun 09)

Capital Equipment Cycles

58 9 9 9 8

1015

2426 28

2225

48

28

2022

3733

40 43

30

14

21

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$6019

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

08 F

2009

F20

10 F

-60%

-35%

-10%

15%

40%

65%

90%

115%

Capital Equipment Revenue Annual Growth

Ann

ual G

row

th %

(lin

e gr

aph)

Source: SEMI and SEMI/SEAJ year end historical reports, SEMI Year-End 2008 Forecast

Glo

bal C

apita

l Equ

ipm

ent R

even

ue U

S $B

(b

ar g

raph

)

7 8 9 9 9 1013

1519 21 22 20

2320 21

2429

31

37

43 43 41

28

37

05

1015202530354045505560

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

F20

10 F

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Materials Revenue Annual Growth

Source: Rose Associates historical reports 1987 through 1999, SEMI 1999 through 2010, August 2009

Ann

ual G

row

th %

(lin

e gr

aph)

Glo

bal M

ater

ials

Rev

enue

US

$B(b

ar g

raph

)

Semiconductor Materials Cycles

Silicon Area Shipment Index

Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group October 2009

Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index(Three-month moving average)

507090

110130150170190210230250

Jan-

98A

pr-9

8Ju

l-98

Oct

-98

Jan-

99A

pr-9

9Ju

l-99

Oct

-99

Jan-

00A

pr-0

0Ju

l-00

Oct

-00

Jan-

01A

pr-0

1Ju

l-01

Oct

-01

Jan-

02A

pr-0

2Ju

l-02

Oct

-02

Jan-

03A

pr-0

3Ju

l-03

Oct

-03

Jan-

04A

pr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct

-04

Jan-

05A

pr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct

-05

Jan-

06A

pr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07A

pr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08A

pr-0

8Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

Total Fab Spending- Increasing off of the 2Q 2009 low

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

US$

Mill

ions

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

Total Spending on Fabs(includes construction, facilities, and equipping)

TaiwanSE AsiaKoreaJapanEurope & MideastChinaAmericas

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast

Semiconductor Equipment Market

Semiconductor Equipment Spending by Region

Europe,7%

Japan,16%

NorthAmerica,

25%Korea,15%

Taiwan,23%

China, 6%

Rest ofWorld, 8%

Source: SEMI/SEAJ October 2009

2009 Year-to-date through SeptemberMarket Billings = $10.2B

2008 Market Billings = $29.5B

Europe,8%

Japan,24%

NorthAmerica,

19%

Korea,17%

Taiwan,17%

China, 6%

Rest ofWorld, 9%

Semiconductor Equipment Spending by Major Segment

Test, 10%

Other, 7%

Assembly&

Packaging9%

WaferProcessing

74%

Source: SEMI/SEAJ October 2009

2009 Year-to-date through SeptemberMarket Billings = $10.2B

2008 Market Billings = $29.5B

Test, 12%

Other, 6%

WaferProcessing

75%

Assembly&

Packaging7%

Equipment Spending by Category

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other

Other 2.92 2.00 1.00 Test 5.05 3.45 1.40 Assembly & Pack. 2.84 2.04 1.30 Wafer Process 31.95 22.03 11.00

2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (F)

US$

Bill

ions $29.52

~ $14.5 to $15

$42.77

Totals may not add due to rounding

Source: SEMI

0.400.500.600.700.800.901.001.10

Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 (f) Aug-09(p)

Boo

k-to

-Bill

Rat

io

Source: SEMI September 2009

SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 (f) Aug-09 (p)

US$

Mill

ions

Bookings Billings

North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)

Worldwide Semiconductor (Fab, Test & Assembly) Equipment Trends

Worldwide Bookings and Billings forSemiconductor Equipment

(based on 3-month averages)

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

Jan-

97A

pr-9

7Ju

l-97

Oct

-97

Jan-

98A

pr-9

8Ju

l-98

Oct

-98

Jan-

99A

pr-9

9Ju

l-99

Oct

-99

Jan-

00A

pr-0

0Ju

l-00

Oct

-00

Jan-

01A

pr-0

1Ju

l-01

Oct

-01

Jan-

02A

pr-0

2Ju

l-02

Oct

-02

Jan-

03A

pr-0

3Ju

l-03

Oct

-03

Jan-

04A

pr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct

-04

Jan-

05A

pr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct

-05

Jan-

06A

pr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07A

pr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08A

pr-0

8Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

US$

Bill

ions

Billings Bookings

Source: SEMI/SEAJ October 2009

Orders- First year-over-year improvement since 1Q 2007

Equipment Order Trends

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1Q 2

007

2Q 2

007

3Q 2

007

4Q 2

007

1Q 2

008

2Q 2

008

3Q 2

008

4Q 2

008

1Q 2

009

2Q 2

009

3Q 2

009%

Cha

nge

Quarter-over-Quarter Year-over-Year

Source: SEMI/SEAJ

Semiconductor Materials Market

Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2008; SEMI

75 mm

100 mm150 mm

125 mm

200 mm

300 mm

Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

F20

10F

2011

F

Mill

ions

of S

quar

e In

ches

Global Silicon Wafer Outlook by Diameter

Leadframes -Shipments return to year ago levels

Global Leadframe Shipments

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Jan-0

6

Apr-06

Jul-0

6

Oct-06

Jan-0

7

Apr-07

Jul-0

7

Oct-07

Jan-0

8

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-0

9

Apr-09

Jul-0

9

Mill

ions

of U

nits

IC Discrete

Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription

Materials Market Forecast By Segment

Source: SEMI October 2009 draft estimate

2009: down ~ 15%

2010: up 15% to 20%

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Fab Packaging

Packaging 12.0 12.8 15.5 17.6 18.1 16.3 18.7Fab 16.9 18.2 21.7 25.2 24.1 19.0 22.2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F 2010F

US$

Bill

ions

Totals may not add due to rounding.

$28.8$31.0

$42.7 $42.2

$37.2$35.3

$40.9

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Fab Packaging

Packaging 12.0 12.8 15.5 17.6 18.1 16.3 18.7Fab 16.9 18.2 21.7 25.2 24.1 19.0 22.2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F 2010F

US$

Bill

ions

Totals may not add due to rounding.

$28.8$31.0

$42.7 $42.2

$37.2$35.3

$40.9

Summary• Industry Trends

– Unit shipments bottomed in January/February with a strong rebound into the third quarter

– Investments on fabs are increasing on a quarterly basis– Overall outlook is for growth in semiconductor sales to continue into 2010

• Semiconductor Equipment Market– Earlier this year, bookings fell to levels last reported in the early 1990s.– Bookings have been slowly improving from this bottom– Market forecast

• a -45%-50% decline in 2009• +50% or more spending growth in 2010

• Semiconductor Materials Market– 2009 forecasted to decline -15%– 2010 outlook to be inline with overall semiconductor market growth

AOI Pavilionat

SEMICON TW 2010

2009-11-0435

About SEMICON Taiwan

Since 1995, SEMICON Taiwan has become the largest and most complete microelectronics event in Taiwan, attracting the world’s leading innovation companies.

Beyond a trade show, SEMICON Taiwan also provides a setting for technical seminars and networking opportunities to actively support the growth of the global microelectronics industry.

2009-11-0436

SEMICON Taiwan 2009 Overview

• Exhibiting Companies: 520• Booths: 1,020• Total Registered: 22,737• Verified Visitors: 18,328• Program Attendees: 1,695+

2009-11-0437

• AOI Museum

• Innovative Technology Center

• AOI Forum

• AOI Exclusive Marketing and Promotion Programs

• Connect with Global and Local Business

Featuring texts, graphic material, teaching ideas etc., the space provides an introduction to AOI process and development

This event is designed for exhibitors and visitors who would like to get to know more about new technologies.

Besides the pavilion, AOI Forum will bring attendees the latest industry development and solution.

Dedicated exhibitor visibility and marketing programs to help you stand out from the crowd and attract high-quality buyers, investors, technologists, academics and media attendees.

AOI Pavilion is the ideal platform for overseas solution providers and local suppliers and service companies to connect with business partners.

+

+

+

Features of AOI Pavilion

AOI Pavilion Layout

AOI Pavilion (Image)

2009-11-0440

AOI Pavilion

AOI Pavilion will integrate exhibits, forum, museum and Innovative Technology Center to present the latest AOI applications and technology solutions

2009-11-0441

MuseumFeaturing live demonstration of the diverse uses of AOItechnologies, AOI developmental milestone, manufacturing process and market forecast.

Application Display Area where the dedicated staff explain how AOI technologies apply to the applications.

Innovative Technology Center

A platform to present the latest and innovative technologies for exhibitors

AOI Forum• Date : September 9 or10, 2010• Venue : TICC• Estimated Attendees : 150-200

Media Activities / Public RelationsNews Exposure on AOI Pavilion

• Duration: June-October, 2010

• Total News Exposure: estimated 50+ news articles(Ex: in 2009, there are total 64 news articles for MEMS Pavilion)

Summary

• SEMI Global platform bring you to new business

• SEMI Various services assist you to new opportunity

• SEMI AOI Pavilion Package make you bright future & help to promote Worldwide

WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCETOGETHER

Thank You

Join with SEMI NOW !

ttsao@semi.org