SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status

James BoylanGeorgia EPD – Air Protection Branch

SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead

2012 Spring Grants/Planning MeetingMay 23, 2012 – Atlanta, GA

2

SEMAP Project• SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning

(SEMAP) Project

• Managed through SESARM• Same group of states that were involved with

SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP• AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV

3

Outline• Emission Inventory Development• WRF, SMOKE, CMAQ• Future Year Projections for O3, PM2.5, RH• Ozone Emission Sensitivities• Regional Haze Periodic Reporting

4

Important Note• SEMAP states do not have any moderate or

serious ozone nonattainment areas & all PM2.5 monitors are meeting the NAAQS.

• Regional Haze periodic reports do not require photochemical modeling.

• Most likely, none of this modeling will be used in any SIPs.

5

Emission Inventory• Emissions Inventory Contractors

– AMEC/Alpine Point source (EGU and non-EGU), fire, and on-road mobile (MOVES) emissions.

– TranSystems Area and non-road (including MAR) emissions.

• “Actual” Emission Inventory (2007)– Used for model performance evaluations

• “Typical” Emission Inventory (2006-2008)– EGUs and fires– Used for model projections and RRF calculations

• Future Year Inventory – 2020– Growth & Control factors for EGU point, non-EGU point, area, and MAR– Rerun NONROAD– Inventory mode ratio method for MOVES (proxy FY)

Point Source NOx

Point Source SO2

MOVES Emissions• New tools had to be developed for QA

13

57

911

1315

0.00E+002.00E-014.00E-016.00E-018.00E-01

1.00E+00

1.20E+00

1.40E+00

2030

4050

6070

8090

speed bin

g/m

ile

temperature (F)

1.20E+00-1.40E+00

1.00E+00-1.20E+00

8.00E-01-1.00E+00

6.00E-01-8.00E-01

4.00E-01-6.00E-01

2.00E-01-4.00E-01

0.00E+00-2.00E-01

20

35

50

65

8095

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

tem

pe

ratu

re (F

)

g/ve

h/h

r

hour0-0.5 0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2-2.5 2.5-3

13

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

0123456789

10111213141516171819202122

20

.02

4.2

30

.43

5.1

40

.4

45

.1

49

.9

53

.8

58

.7

63

.0

68

.1

72

.2

77

.5

81

.9

88

.0

93

.8

ho

ur

g/ve

h/h

r

temperature (F)

0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11

11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22

Rate Per Distance Rate Per Profile

Rate Per Vehicle

NOx from Wildfires

AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

NOx Emissions from Wildfires

2007 SEMAP 2007 SEMAP Typical

To

ns

NOx from Ag, Open, Rx Burning

AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

NOx Emissions from Ag, Open, and Rx Burning

2007 SEMAP 2007 SEMAP Typical

To

ns

Non-Road and Area NOx

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Alabama Florida Georgia Kentucky Mississippi North Carolina

South Carolina

Tennessee Virginia West Virginia

Em

issi

on

s (T

PY

)

NOx

Locomotive

CMV

Aircraft

NONROAD Model

Area

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Alabama Florida Georgia Kentucky Mississippi North Carolina

South Carolina

Tennessee Virginia West Virginia

Emis

sio

ns

(TP

Y)

NOx

Locomotive

CMV

Aircraft

NONROAD Model

Area

Non-Road and Area SO2

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Alabama Florida Georgia Kentucky Mississippi North Carolina

South Carolina

Tennessee Virginia West Virginia

Em

issi

on

s (T

PY

)

SO2

Locomotive

CMV

Aircraft

NONROAD Model

Area

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Alabama Florida Georgia Kentucky Mississippi North Carolina

South Carolina

Tennessee Virginia West Virginia

Emis

sio

ns

(TP

Y)

NOx

Locomotive

CMV

Aircraft

NONROAD Model

Area

EGU Point SO2

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Meteorological Modeling• WRF Model Set-Up

– 36-km CONUS and 12-km Eastern US– 35 Vertical Layers– Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation– Morrison (moisture physics), PX (land surface), and ACM2

(PBL)• Modeling Centers

– NC DENR and IA DNR• Model Performance Evaluation

– Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER)– NC DENR and GA EPD

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WRF Modeling Domain

Surface Layer

Air Quality Modeling SystemMeteorology (WRF)

Air Quality (CMAQ)

Emissions (SMOKE)

EmissionsInventory

(NIF)

MOVESInputs

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Emissions Modeling

• GT/UNC - SESARM contractor– Created SMOKE inputs (NIF to ORL format)– Ran SMOKE and SMOKE-MOVES– Created biogenic emissions (BEIS)– Added Canada/Mexico and other RPO Emissions

• Part 75 data replacement for CEMS– Details on next slide

• All 2007 SMOKE files are finished and ready to be used.

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2007 Air Quality Modeling• GT/UNC - SESARM contractor• 2007 annual modeling with CMAQv5.0

– 36 and 12 km grids– Model Performance Evaluation– Diagnostic Sensitivity Testing (only if MPE poor)

• New CMAQv5.0 Model Options– Additional new crustal species YES– In-line plume rise for point sources YES– In-line lightning NOx YES– In-line bi-directional NH3 flux NO– In-line biogenic emissions NO– In-line wind blown dust NO

21

CMAQ Modeling Domain

SEMAP 12-km Modeling Domain

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2020 Air Quality Modeling• 2020 Annual Emisisons Modeling

– SMOKE for most source sectors – MOVES: Ratio Approach using Inventory Mode

• 2020 Annual CMAQ Modeling– Projections of ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze– Follow EPA’s RRF approach

• Ozone Emission Sensitivity Modeling– Statewide 30% NOx and VOC emission reductions– Ozone season (5 months) at 12 km– Performed for 10 individual SEMAP states, Maryland, and

neighboring RPOs (28 model runs)

Georgia Sensitivities: Summer -6.00

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

Ath

en

s_

GA

Atla

nta

_1

_G

A

Atla

nta

_2

_G

A

Au

gu

sta

_G

A

Co

lum

bu

s_

GA

Ma

co

n_

GA

Mu

rray

_G

A

O

3 (p

pb

)

GA_PNOx

GA_SNOx

VVOC

Georgia NOx vs. VOCs

4 11 23 2 3 6 6

Red numbers indicate number of days used in RRF calculations

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VOC/NOx Sensitivity Updates

Previous Sensitivity Modeling Planned Sensitivity Modeling

CMAQv4.4 CMAQv5.0

1-Month Summer Episode 5-Month Ozone Season

VISTAS 2009 OTW BaseD SEMAP 2020

SEMAP-wide VOC Reductions State-wide VOC Reductions

County/State NOx Reductions State-wide NOx Reductions

MOBILE6 MOVES

Absolute Difference RRF Approach

>70 ppb Cutoff >60 ppb Cutoff

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SEMAP Modeling Schedule

27

Regional Haze Obligations• 5-year Periodic Reports

– First reports due December 2012 (NC, SC)• 2018 Regional Haze SIP Revisions

– Due July 31, 2018– Work must begin by mid-2014

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SEMAP Regional Haze TSD• Current Visibility Conditions

– Examine 2000- 2010 IMPROVE Measurements

• Emission Inventory Changes– VISTAS 2002 (actual), 2007 SEMAP (actual), VISTAS 2009

(projected), and VISTAS 2018 (projected) – Update 2007 SEMAP with 2009, 2010, 2011 CEMS

• Status of Emission Controls in SIP– Federal and State Controls

• Assessment of Current SIP

Regional Haze at COHU

28.63

25.71

22.46

19.22

15.97

12.7310.78

30.25

27.05

22.80

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064

Hazin

ess I

ndex (

Deciv

iew

s)

Year

Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathCohutta - W20% Data Days

Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction Rolling Average

Regional Haze SO2 Emissions

Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources

4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354

James.Boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851

Contact Information