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![Page 1: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary
Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek
Hungarian Forest Research Institute, [email protected]
National Agricultural Office, Forest Directorate, [email protected]
„LULUCF issues under the Kyoto Protocol”EU DG JRC, Brussels, 10 November 2010
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TOPICSTOPICS
We found forests…We found forests…
Soil demo v.2Soil demo v.2
Estimating uncertainty by MCAEstimating uncertainty by MCA
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Evolution of Evolution of knownknown forest forest areaarea
![Page 4: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Evolution of forest Evolution of forest areaarea
![Page 5: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Evolution of forest Evolution of forest areaarea
![Page 6: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Evolution of forest Evolution of forest areaarea
![Page 7: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Guidance by IPCC 2006 Guidance by IPCC 2006 GLGL
ΔFM = f(FL2, FL1) but:
„When using the Stock-Difference
Method…, it is important to ensure that
the area of land in that category at
times t1 and t2 is identical...”
![Page 8: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
IF FL = FM + AR + FF, IF FL = FM + AR + FF, ΔΔCCFMFM = ? = ?
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FLFL11 →→ FL FL2 2 balancebalance
FM1
D
FL1 = D + FM1
FL2 = FL1-D
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FLFL11 →→ FL FL2 2 balancebalance
FM1
IFM
D
FL1 = D + FM1
FL2 = FL1-D+ +IFM
![Page 11: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
FLFL11 →→ FL FL2 2 balancebalance
FM1
IFMAR1
D
FL1 = D + FM1 + + AR1 FL2 = FL1-D+
+IFM
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FLFL11 →→ FL FL2 2 balancebalance
FM1
IFMAR1
IAR
D
FL1 = D + FM1 + + AR1 FL2 = FL1-D+
+IFM +IAR
![Page 13: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
FLFL11 →→ FL FL2 2 balancebalance
FM1
IFMAR1
IAR
D
FF1
FL1 = D + FM1 + + AR1 + FF1 FL2 = FL1-D+
+IFM +IAR
![Page 14: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
FLFL11 →→ FL FL2 2 balancebalance
FM1
IFMAR1
IAR
D
FF1
IFF
FL1 = D + FM1 + + AR1 + FF1 FL2 = FL1-D+
+IFM +IAR
+IFF
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FLFL11 →→ FL FL2 2 balancebalance
FM1
IFMAR1
IAR
D
FF1
IFF
FFnewFL1 = D + FM1 + + AR1 + FF1 FL2 = FL1-D+
+IFM +IAR
+IFF+FFnew
![Page 16: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
FLFL11 →→ FL FL2 2 balancebalance
FM1
IFMAR1
IAR
D
FF1
IFF
FFnewFL1 = D + FM1 + + AR1 + FF1
∆FM = FL2 - FL1 +
+D - IAR - - IFF - FFnew
FL2 = FL1-D+ +IFM +IAR
+IFF+FFnew
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Our soils Our soils (except for D)(except for D)
are not a source…are not a source…
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Demonstration principlesDemonstration principles
• Using very limited country-specific information
• Applying all methods suggested by GPG
• Relying also on data from other countries
• Applying a (highly) conservative approach
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DudleszSopron Iván
Farkasgyepü
Kiscsehi
KecskemétROMANIA
UKRAINE
SLOVAKIA
AUSTRIA
CROATIA
SERBIA
SLOVENIA
4 CL, 2 GL (150 yr),1 CL (20 yr)
Local information base:Local information base:chronosequences / case chronosequences / case
studiesstudies
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C=68.5+43.5*(1-e-
0.016*t)CL:
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C=82.0+32.9*(1-e-0.015*t) -29.0*(1-e-
0.046*t)
GL:
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C = 26,8+0,304*tCL:
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
stand age (yr)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
C s
tocks (
tC h
a-1)
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Forest Land Stratum under the KP
Estimated area in
2008 (kha)
Emission (+) and
removal (-) factor
(tC ha-1)
Total emissions (+) or removals (-)
(ktC)
AR since 1990 from CL 127(indirectly) -48
AR since 1990 from GL 31
FM with artificial regeneration
16,1 6 97
FM with natural regeneration
3,5 0 0
All other FM 1637 -0,05 -82Total -33<0
Strata and estimatesStrata and estimates
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Forest Land Stratum under the KP
Estimated area in
2008 (kha)
Emission (+) and
removal (-) factor
(tC ha-1)
Total emissions (+) or removals (-)
(ktC)
AR since 1990 from CL 127(indirectly) -48
AR since 1990 from GL 31
FM with artificial regeneration
16,1 6 97
FM with natural regeneration
3,5 0 0
All other FM 1637 -0,05 -82Total -33<0
Strata and estimatesStrata and estimates
![Page 25: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Forest Land Stratum under the KP
Estimated area in
2008 (kha)
Emission (+) and
removal (-) factor
(tC ha-1)
Total emissions (+) or removals (-)
(ktC)
AR since 1990 from CL 127(indirectly) -48
AR since 1990 from GL 31
FM with artificial regeneration
16,1 6 97
FM with natural regeneration
3,5 0 0
All other FM 1637 -0,05 -82Total -33<0
Strata and estimatesStrata and estimates
![Page 26: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Forest Land Stratum under the KP
Estimated area in
2008 (kha)
Emission (+) and
removal (-) factor
(tC ha-1)
Total emissions (+) or removals (-)
(ktC)
AR since 1990 from CL 127(indirectly) -48
AR since 1990 from GL 31
FM with artificial regeneration
16,1 6 97
FM with natural regeneration
3,5 0 0
All other FM 1637 -0,05 -82Total -33<0
Strata and estimatesStrata and estimates
![Page 27: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Forest Land Stratum under the KP
Estimated area in
2008 (kha)
Emission (+) and
removal (-) factor
(tC ha-1)
Total emissions (+) or removals (-)
(ktC)
AR since 1990 from CL 127(indirectly) -48
AR since 1990 from GL 31
FM with artificial regeneration
16,1 6 97
FM with natural regeneration
3,5 0 0
All other FM 1637 -0,05 -82Total -33 < 0
Strata and estimatesStrata and estimates
![Page 28: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
How certain are we How certain are we on our uncertainties?on our uncertainties?
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Uncertainty estimationUncertainty estimation
• Non-quantifiable elements
• Estimates for specific variables
• Expert judgments
• Estimates of combined effects of several variables on the „system” using a model
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Modeling forest C dynamics: Modeling forest C dynamics: www.scientia.hu/www.scientia.hu/casmofor (4.0)casmofor (4.0)
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Modeling forest C dynamics: Modeling forest C dynamics: www.scientia.hu/www.scientia.hu/casmofor (4.0)casmofor (4.0)
![Page 32: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Modeling forest C dynamics: Modeling forest C dynamics: www.scientia.hu/www.scientia.hu/casmofor (4.0)casmofor (4.0)
![Page 33: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
CASMOFOR 4.0: a frameworkCASMOFOR 4.0: a framework
• following IPCC methodology
• 40 equations of C dynamics/economics
• standwise approach with annual steps
• forestry data warehouse for Hungary
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Full Monte-Carlo moduleFull Monte-Carlo module
![Page 35: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
What if:What if:
VariableAssumed
relative STD (%)CAI 20 %
Basic wood density
10 %
Root-to-shoot ratio
30 %
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Simulated ARSimulated AR + absolute STD
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Simulated AR + absolute STDSimulated AR + absolute STD
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Simulated AR + absolute STDSimulated AR + absolute STD
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Simulated AR + absolute CISimulated AR + absolute CI
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Simulated AR + absolute CISimulated AR + absolute CI
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Simulated AR + relative STDSimulated AR + relative STD
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Simulated AR + relative STDSimulated AR + relative STD
![Page 43: Selected issues of the first KP report and their fix in Hungary Z. Somogyi – P. Kottek Hungarian Forest Research Institute, Budapest somogyiz@erti.hu National.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070305/55152dd35503465e608b588b/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Concerned with accuracy?Concerned with accuracy?Try the Monte-Carlo moduleTry the Monte-Carlo module
Variable
STD relative to the reference C stock change (%) in 2008
AB BB All carbon pools
CAI 11,8% 11,8% 12,3
Basic wood density
6,1% 6,1% 6,4
Root-to-shoot ratio
-18,1% 3,6
Combined effect:
13,5 % 25,1% 15,3%
UAB = 2 * STD * t(95%; DF=99) / sqrt(N) = 5,36%