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Jagadish Shukla University Professor, George Mason University (GMU)

Research Hall, Room 105, MSN: 2B3, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA Tel: 703-993-5700; E-mail: jshukla@gmu.edu http://cola.gmu.edu/shukla/

Selected Honors and Awards 2016: Honorary Member, American Meteorological Society 2015: India’s Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change (PMCCC) 2014: Virginia Governor’s Commission on Climate Change (2008 & 2014) 2012: Padma Shri, National Award from the President of India

2009: Faculty Award for Scholarship and Creative Activities, College of Science, GMU

2008: Fellow, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

2008: Commissioner on the Virginia Governor’s Commission on Climate Change

2007: Lead Author, IPCC Working Group 1 Report, Climate Change 2007 (IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore)

2007: International Meteorological Organization (IMO) Prize (Highest honor in the world in Meteorology)

2005: Rossby Medal of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) (Highest honor awarded by AMS)

2004: Scientist of the year, Association of Indians in America (AIA)

2001: Walker Gold Medal of the Indian Meteorological Society (IMS) (Highest medal of the IMS; first recipient of the medal)

1999: Founded Gandhi College for women in a village in India (See the article in the New York Times, 17 August 2003)

1996: Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS, Associate Fellow)

1996: Fellow, Indian Meteorological Society

1993: Founded Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES) (See www.iges.org)

1989: Helped establish super computer center for monsoon forecasting, New Delhi (At the behest of the then Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi)

1988: Started weather and climate program at ICTP, Trieste, Italy (At the behest of Dr. Abdus Salam, founder of ICTP)

1986: Invited to lecture at the Pontifical Academy, Vatican, Italy (Audience with Pope John Paul II)

1983: Founded, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA) (COLA is considered one of the premiere centers in the world for climate research)

1982: Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal of NASA (Highest medal given by NASA to a civilian)

1979: Chief Scientist, MONEX experiment in the Bay of Bengal (Leader of an expedition of three aircrafts and 150 scientists to Calcutta)

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CURRICULUM VITAE OF JAGADISH SHUKLA: ADDRESS: Distinguished University Professor, George Mason University (GMU) President, Institute of Global Environment and Society, Inc. (IGES)

4400 University Drive, MSN: 2B3, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA, Tel: 703-993-5700 E-mail: shukla@iges.org http://www.iges.org/

EDUCATION: Primary School (1953) – Under a banyan tree; village – Mirdha, Ballia, U.P., India High School (1958) – S.R.S. H.S. School, village – Sheopur, Ballia, U.P., India B.Sc. (Honors) (1962) – Banaras Hindu University (Physics, Math, Geology) M.Sc. (1964) – Banaras Hindu University (Geophysics), India Ph.D. (1971) – Banaras Hindu University (Geophysics), India Sc.D. (1976) – Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Meteorology), USA PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: 2003- present Chairman, Climate Dynamics, George Mason University 1994 - present Professor of Earth Sciences and Global Change, George Mason University 1991 - present President, Institute of Global Environment and Society 1984 - 2004 Director, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies 1984 - 1993 Professor, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland 1979 - 1983 Senior Scientist, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center 1978 - 1979 Visiting Associate Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1976 - 1977 Research Associate, Princeton University 1971 - 1976 Research Assistant, Research staff (M.I.T., Princeton) 1965 - 1971 Junior Scientific Officer, Indian Inst. of Tropical Meteor., Pune, India HONORS AND AWARDS Padma Shri, National Award from President of India, 2012 Fellow, American Geophysical Union, 2008 International Meteorological Organization (IMO) Prize, 2007 Rossby Research Medal (Amer. Met. Soc.), 2005 Scientist of the year, 2004, Association of Indians in America Sir Gilbert Walker Gold Medal (Ind. Met. Soc.), 2001 Associate Fellow, Third World Academy of Sciences, 1996 Fellow, Indian Meteorological Society, 1996 Fellow, American Meteorological Society, 1986 Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal, NASA, 1982 Exceptional Performance Award, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, 1981 Outstanding Contribution to First GARP Global Experiment, 1980 Fulbright Travel Grant, 1971 United National Fellowship, 1967 SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS AND LECTURES: Author/co-author of 250 scientific papers, 20 reports Editor/contributor: five books; About 300 invited lectures/seminars Ph. D. thesis adviser for 20 students at M. I. T., Univ. of Maryland, GMU Chair/member of about 50 national/international panels

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NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEES, PANELS: Member, 2008; 2014, Virginia Governor’s Commission on Climate Chairman, 2008 – present, International Advisory Panel for Weather and Climate (Govt. of India) Member, 2005 – 2012, Board of Trustees, Sehgal Foundation, India Chairman, 2006-2012, Asia Pacific Climate Center Science Advisory Committee, Korea Chairman, 2008, World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction (May 6-9, ECMWF) Chairman, 2005-2007, WCRP Modeling Panel (WMP) Member, 2005-2008, WCRP Observations and Assimilations Panel (WOAP) Member, 2001-2008, Joint Scientific Committee (JSC), World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Member, 2000-2001, Asian Australian Monsoon Working Group, US CLIVAR Chairman, 1999- 2001, Seasonal-Interannual Modeling Panel (SIMAP), US CLIVAR Chairman, 2001, International Conference on Monsoons, New Delhi, India Member, 2001-, Editorial Board, Earth & Planetary Sciences, Indian Academy of Sciences Member, 1998-2000, Science Steering Committee, Climate Variability, US CLIVAR Member, 1997-2000, Science Steering Committee, Climate System Modeling (CSM), UCAR Member, 1995-2000, PAGES/CLIVAR Working Group, WCRP Member, 1995-1998, TOGA Numerical Experimentation Group (TOGA-NEG), WCRP Member, 1996-1998, CLIVAR Monsoon Panel, WCRP Member, 1996-1997, Science Working Group, International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), Hawaii Member, 1994-1997, U.S. Panel on GOALS, National Research Council (NRC), NAS Member, 1993-1996, Climate Data Analysis (CDAS), Advisory Committee for NCEP, UCAR Member, 1991-1995, International Scientific Steering Committee, (CLIVAR), WCRP Co-chairman, 1994, International Conference on Monsoons, Trieste, Italy Member, 1992-1994, Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP), OGP/NOAA Chairman, 1992, Steering Committee for Study Conference on GOALS, NRC/NAS Director, 1992, Workshop on Mediterranean Processes, August 1992, Venice, Italy Scientific Coordinator, 1991-1994, Int. Inst. for Earth, Env. and Marine Sci. and Tech., Trieste, Italy Member, 1991-1993, GEWEX Panel on Continental Scale Project (GCIP) Member, 1991-1993, External Advisory Group, ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA) Member, 1991-1998, Scientific Advisory Committee, Venice Center for Marine Sciences Director, 1991, NATO Avd. Res. Workshop on Prediction of Interannual Clim. Vari., Trieste, Italy Chairman, 1989, Organizing Committee, TOGA Ad-hoc, panel meeting on Reanalysis Chairman, 1989-1992, U.S. Panel on Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA), NRC/NAS Member, 1989-1994, International Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group (MONEG) Member, 1989-2000, Editorial Board, Journal of Indian Meteorological Society, MAUSAM Scientific Advisor, 1989-1990, National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India Member, 1983-1988, U.S. Panel on TOGA (NRC/NAS) Member, 1984-1989, International Scientific Steering Group on TOGA,WCRP Member, 1987-1991, Panel on Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (DERF), NRC/NAS Member, 1987-1990, Air-Sea Fluxes Working Group, WCRP Director, Summer school on physical climatology, May-June, 1988, ICTP, Trieste, Italy Member, 1988-1991, Scientific Steering Comm. for International Center for Earth Sciences, Trieste, Italy Member, 1986-1989, Science Steering Committee for TRMM, NASA Chairman, 1985, Organizing Committee, Meeting on Interannual Variations of Monsoon (US TOGA) Member, 1984-1987, Indian Ocean Panel, Committee on Climate Change and Ocean (CCCO) Program Leader, 1984-1990, U.S.-India Science and Technology Initiative (STI) on Monsoon Member, 1982-1985, Climate Research Committee, NRC/NAS Member, 1982-1984, Advisory Board, Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies, (EPOCS) Member, 1983-1986, Committee on Climate Variations, American Meteor. Soc., (AMS) Lead Scientist, 1983, Global Habitability Program, GSFC/NASA Member, 1975-1983, Panel on Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), NRC/NAS Chief Scientist, 1977 - 1979, Monsoon Experiment (FGGE/GWE) in Bay of Bengal (NSF)

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Professional Biography of Jagadish Shukla Jagadish Shukla was born in 1944 in village Mirdha in the Ballia district of Uttar Pradesh, India. This village had no electricity, no roads or transportation, and no primary school. Most of his primary education was received under a large banyan tree until his father established a primary school in the village. He passed high school from the S.R.S. High School, Sheopur, in 1958 with distinction in Mathematics and Sanskrit. He was unable to study science in high school because none of the schools near his village offered science education. His father, the late Shri Chandra Shekhar Shukla who was headmaster of a middle school in a nearby village (Sukhpura), bought science textbooks for classes sixth to tenth and insisted that he study them during the summer holidays before admission to the next grade. After passing the twelfth grade from the S. C. College, Ballia, he went to Banaras Hindu University (B.H.U.) where, in 1962, he passed the B.Sc. (honors) with Physics, Mathematics, and Geology, and in 1964 received the M.Sc. in Geophysics. He received a Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Geophysics from BHU (1971) and a Doctor of Science (Sc.D.) in Meteorology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1976. Dr. Shukla is a Distinguished University Professor and the Founding Chairman of the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences at George Mason University (GMU), Virginia, USA. He is also President of the Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES), Maryland, USA. In 2008, he was appointed by the Governor of Virginia as a member of the Commission on Climate Change. He was one of the Lead Authors of the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Vice President Gore. In 2007, he received the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) Prize, considered to be the highest prize in meteorology in the world. In 2005, he received the Rossby Medal, considered the highest medal of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in the USA; in 2001, he received the Walker Gold Medal, considered the highest medal of Indian Meteorological Society (IMS) in India; in 1982 he received the Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal of NASA, the highest medal given by NASA to a civilian. He is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorology Society, India Meteorology Society, and an Associate Fellow of TWAS (the academy of sciences for the developing world). He has been the Ph. D. thesis adviser for about 20 students at MIT., Univ. of Maryland, and George Mason University. Professor Shukla has exerted a tremendous influence on the field through his publication of over 200 scientific papers, reports and book chapters, his direction of 20 Ph.D. students’ dissertation research, his leadership of several national and international advisory and planning panels. Professor Shukla has contributed to the science of meteorology and to governments, research organizations, and institutions of higher learning throughout the world, through fundamental scientific advances, institution building, and international cooperation in meteorology for the betterment of humankind worldwide. He has made fundamental contributions to the study of climate dynamics that have led to the development of a scientific basis for the prediction of climate beyond the limit of the predictability of daily weather, which derives from the influence of the slow variations of the atmosphere’s lower boundary conditions. This pioneering work helped lay the scientific foundation for dynamical seasonal prediction at a time when the community was quite skeptical about its prospects. This idea launched a large community research effort to investigate the effects of boundary conditions on climate variability and predictability, and it lead to routine dynamical seasonal prediction. Beyond that, Professor Shukla has helped launch global programs to measure, quantify, and exploit the Earth's climate variability and predictability. He has helped establish institutions for the purposes of studying the predictability of seasonal to interannual climate fluctuations as well as for making actual climate predictions.

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Professor Shukla has also contributed greatly to establishing the importance of land surface processes in determining the seasonal and longer predictability of climate. Toward that end, he established the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) to conduct basic research on climate predictability with the idea that air-sea and air-land interactions are both important. The COLA group is now recognized as one of the outstanding research centers in the world focused on climate dynamics and climate predictability. Professor Shukla and colleagues at COLA have conducted several studies of global deforestation, desertification and monsoons as examples of phenomena in which interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface play a critical role. This emphasis on land surface processes was a fundamental advance of the science, which has lead to numerous research programs, field experiments and space-missions. Another major contribution made by Professor Shukla was his development and proof of the concept of retrospective analysis of atmospheric observations. As in the case of dynamical seasonal prediction, he had the foresight and the vision to push forward this idea and conduct a pilot reanalysis as proof of concept at a time when the community was somewhat skeptical about its feasibility. Reanalysis efforts in the U.S., Europe and Japan inspired by Professor Shukla’s work have led to invaluable data sets that form the basis for climate analysis research today and for the foreseeable future worldwide. Professor Shukla is an institution builder. He is well known for the establishment of the Institute of Global Environment and Society and the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) in the US. He also helped to form a weather and climate research group at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy, which provides training to many scientists from developing countries. He helped establish the National Center for Weather Forecasting in New Delhi, India, which was the result of a landmark agreement between President Reagan and Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. He has played a key role in the establishment of a new Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in Allahabad University, India. He was a founding member of the committees for the establishment of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia University and the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) at the University of Hawaii. He led the creation of a Ph.D. program in Climate Dynamics at George Mason University, which became the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences with Professor Shukla serving as its inaugural chairman. In 2008, he was chairman of the highly successful World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction. In 2009, he helped launch the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum which culminated with a meeting at the ICTP, Trieste, Italy of the Directors General of the weather services of the South Asian countries, the Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Director of ICTP. Professor Shukla has also begun to build institutions in his native India for the purpose of bringing higher education to the poorest villages, especially the women, where the crushing poverty prevents even the simplest forms of scientific or technical advance from being put in place. He has established Gandhi College in his native village for the education of rural girls. He has been a member of numerous national and international programs, including the Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program, and the Climate Variability (CLIVAR) Program. Most recently, as a member of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Joint Scientific Committee (JSC), he has inspired the creation of the WCRP Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES) strategy. In summary, Professor Shukla's contributions represent a unique combination of major scientific accomplishments and substantive community service including the development of scientific programs, creation of new institutions, and fostering of further international cooperation in weather and climate research, to ensure that the fruits of scientific research are harvested for the benefit of society

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Research Activities of Professor J. Shukla in India Professor J. Shukla has been a leader in advancing the science of weather and climate in India. He has developed active collaboration with the Indian researchers at many Indian institutions engaged in weather and climate research. While in the US, he has visited Indian research institutions and his native village every year for the past 40 years. Some of his collaborative activities are briefly summarized below: 1. Dr. Shukla is the Chairman (2008-present) of the International Advisory Panel for weather

and climate for the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MOES).

2. He was the scientific leader in establishing the supercomputer center for weather forecasting at the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in New Delhi, India. This was the first Indian center that received, under a special agreement between President Reagan and Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi for monsoon research. The government of India invited Professor Shukla to establish the scientific infrastructure of the center. This has enabled India to make weather forecasts using a state-of-the-art global dynamical model.

3. He helped establish a weather and climate research group at the Allahabad University. This

group has now developed into a full fledged Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

4. He was instrumental in the establishment of the private sector in the weather and climate

enterprise of India. This has enabled the private sector to provide value-added weather and climate information to the Indian stakeholders.

5. He established Gandhi College for the education of rural women in the village of his birth in

India. This college follows the Gandhian philosophy of honesty and provides an educational opportunity to girls from the neighboring villages.

6. He was the leader of the bilateral US-India Science and Technology Initiative (STI) for monsoons.

7. He was the scientific leader of the Bay of Bengal MONEX experiment in 1979.

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SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS:

Predictability in the Midst of Chaos He conducted innovative numerical experiments to demonstrate that the tropical atmosphere is so strongly forced by the boundary conditions (SST) at the Earth surface that even large differences in the initial conditions of the atmosphere converge to the same circulation. This has clarified an apparent contradiction between the lack of weather predictability beyond two weeks and predictability of seasonal means for periods well beyond the limit of weather predictability. This work along with the research by other scientists who showed that the boundary conditions can be predicted lead to the establishment of operational dynamical seasonal prediction. He was awarded the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) prize with the following citation: “In recognition of his research on monsoons and ocean-land-atmosphere interactions establishing a scientific basis for predictability of climate in the midst of chaotic weather, leading to the introduction of routine operational dynamical seasonal prediction, and his contributions to fostering international cooperation in weather and climate research by developing and leading numerous international research programs, and creating new institutions worldwide for improving weather and climate research, and betterment of global society.”

Scientific Basis for Dynamical Seasonal Prediction (DSP) One of his most significant contributions was the advancement of the hypothesis that the spatially and temporally averaged atmospheric circulation is dynamically predictable for periods beyond the limits of deterministic weather prediction. This work, in conjunction with Miyakoda's pioneering research on monthly forecast experiments, provided a scientific basis for Dynamic Extended Range Forecasting (DERF). His innovative GCM experiments on the predictability of monthly averages and his sensitivity experiments on the influence of boundary conditions were crucial in persuading an otherwise skeptical community that there is a physical basis in dynamically predicting monthly and seasonal averages. It is likely that, in the not too distant future, seasonal predictions of the atmospheric circulation and rainfall will be done routinely using dynamical models. He was awarded the Rossby Research Medal of the American Meteorological Society with the following citation: “For fundamental contributions and inspired leadership in understanding the variability and predictability of the climate system on seasonal-to-interannual time scales.”

Boundary Forcings as a Mechanism for the Interannual Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation

He presented a simple paradigm for mechanisms that determine the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation. He suggested that for conceptual simplicity it is useful to consider the total variability as consisting of that due to the internal dynamics and that due to variations in the boundary conditions. He carried out a large number of GCM sensitivity experiments and diagnostic studies to model the effects of variations in different boundary conditions. He was awarded the NASA Gold Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement with the following citation:

“For distinguished scientific contributions to the physical understanding of the role of the earth surface boundary forcings on the predictability of the large scale climate fluctuations through observational analysis and numerical modeling experiments, and for management and leadership of an outstanding climate modeling group.”

Predictability of the Tropical Atmosphere He was the first to point out (Shukla 1981) that the theoretical limit of deterministic prediction for the tropics is considerably smaller (3-7 day) than that for the mid-latitudes (2-3 weeks). This is because the tropical errors, largely influenced by moist-convection, reach their climatological saturation values much

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more quickly than in mid-latitudes. The magnitudes of these saturation values are small compared to those for mid-latitudes. He also pointed out that, for the same reason, monthly and seasonal averages are potentially far more predictable in the tropics because they are primarily determined by variations in the boundary conditions.

Monsoon Dynamics In his Ph.D. thesis he proposed a theory for the formation of monsoon disturbances, locally referred to as monsoon depressions, that form over the Bay of Bengal and move over India. He showed that these disturbances represent on instability of the horizontally and vertically shearing monsoon winds modified by moist convection. This was the first attempt to carry out linear instability analysis with horizontal and vertical shear and moist convection as represented by the Arakawa and Schubert parameterization.

Monsoon predictability Both his pioneering numerical experiment on the influence of Arabian Sea SST on the Indian monsoon using the GFDL model and diagnostic studies with D. Hahn at GFDL on the relationship between Eurasian snow cover and the Indian monsoon rainfall formed the basis for Charney and Shukla to suggest that monsoons have a degree of predictability due to the effects of the boundary conditions.

Long Range Forecasting of Monsoons In a collaborative study with Paolino he showed that the summer monsoon rainfall over India is far more strongly correlated with the tendency of the Southern Oscillation in the preceding winter and spring season than the Southern Oscillation itself. This simple diagnostic result gave a clear explanation for the failure of Walker's attempt to forecast monsoon rainfall using the Southern Oscillation.

Land-Climate Interactions (deforestation, desertification) An idealized study by Shukla and Mintz (1982) on the role of land surface evapotranspiration on climate combined with the earlier works of Charney on the influence of changes in albedo helped establish the importance of land surface processes in climate variability and predictability. He and his colleagues have shown that: Amazon deforestation can produce significant changes in temperature, evaporation and rainfall; the climatic effects of deforestation are largely determined by changes in albedo; although the Sahel drought was probably initiated by planetary scale atmosphere-ocean-land interactions, the local land-surface effects play an important role in perpetuating the drought; and initial values of soil wetness are important in determining seasonal mean temperature and rainfall.

Predictability of Weather and Climate He has carried out a large number of predictability studies using atmospheric GCMs to investigate the predictability of weather, predictability of monthly and seasonal averages; predictability of tropical oceans; and predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.

Reanalysis

He is one of the pioneers of reanalysis. As a member of the US TOGA panel and the scientific steering group of the international TOGA, he put forward the idea of reanalysis. Bengtsson and Shukla published a paper in 1988 advancing the concept of reanalysis. To test the feasibility of reanalysis, COLA carried out a pilot reanalysis project. His suggestions on reanalysis to produce climate data sets, which were not well received in the beginning, have now been accepted by the entire community and several groups around the world are carrying out reanalysis to produce data for climate research.

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SELECTED 18 HIGH IMPACT PUBLICATIONS DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2012: Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon

rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL051279. Shukla, J., T.N. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller, and J. Slingo, 2010:

Towards a New Generation of World Climate Research and Computing Facilities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1407-1412.

Shukla, J., R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller, T.N. Palmer, and J. Slingo, 2009:

Revolution in climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible: A Declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the Amer. Meteo. Soc., 2 175-178.

Shukla, J., 2007: Monsoon Mysteries. Science, 318, 204 – 205. Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D. Paolino, 2006: Climate Model Fidelity and

Projections of Climate Change. Geophysical Research Letters, 33. Shukla, J. and J. L. Kinter III, 2006: Predictability of seasonal climate variations: Predictability of

Weather and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, eds.: Cambridge Univ. Press, p. 306-341. Shukla, J. (editor), 2001: Dynamics of Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Processes: Selected Papers

of Jule Gregory Charney. A. Deepak Publ. (Hampton, VA, 611 pp). Shukla, J., et. al., 2000: Dynamical Seasonal Prediction, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 1-14. Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science,

282, 728-731 Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997: Characteristics of interannual and decadal variability in a general

circulation model of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1693-1712. 54, 777-790 Nobre. P., and J. Shukla, 1996: Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the

tropical Atlantic and South America. J. Climate, 9, 2464-2479. Shukla, J., 1995: On the initiation and persistence of Sahel drought, Natural Climate Variability on

Decade to Century Time Scales. National Academy press, Washington, D.C., pp. 44-48. Dirmeyer, P.A. and J. Shukla, 1994: Albedo as a modulator of climate response to tropical deforestation.

J. Geophys. Res., 99, 20863-20877. Goswami, B.N. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model .J. Clim. 3,2-22. Shukla, J., C. A. Nobre and P. J. Sellers, 1990: Amazonia deforestation and climate change. Science,

247, 1322 1325. Shukla, J. and Y. Mintz, Influence of land surface evapotranspiration on the earth's climate. Science 215

(1982): 1498 1501. Moura, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1981: On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil: Observations, theory

and numerical experiments with a general circulation model. J. Atm. Sci., 38, 2653 2675. Shukla, J., 1981: Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means. J. Atm. Sci. Vol. 38, No.12, 2547 – 2572.

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SERVICE TO COMMUNITY:

a. Scientific Programs He has been chairman/member of numerous national and international panels and committees concerned with the advancement of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences including the monsoon climate program of the World Meteorological Organization. He was the founding member/chair of the scientific steering group of the following national and international programs: • MONEX – Monsoon Experiment (US and WCRP) • STI – Science and Technology Initiative (US – India) • TRMM – Tropical Rain Measurement Mission (NASA) • DERF – Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (NAS/NRC) • TOGA – Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (US and WCRP) • GOALS – Global Ocean Atmosphere Land Systems (NAS/NRC) • CLIVAR – Climate Variability (International SSG) • ERA – External Advisory Committee on ECMWF Reanalysis • GCIP – GEWEX Continental Scale Project (CLIVAR) • ACCP – Atlantic Climate Change Program (NOAA) • SIMAP – Seasonal-Interannual Modeling & Prediction (US CLIVAR) • AAMWG – Asian Australian Monsoon Working Group (US CLIVAR) • JSC – Joint Scientific Committee of WCRP • COPES – Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (WCRP) • WMP – WCRP Modeling Panel (WCRP) • WMS – World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction (WCRP) • SASCOF – South Asian Climate Outlook Forum

b. Institution Building

i. COLA and IGES, USA

He is the founder of the Institute of Global Environment and Society (a non-profit institute registered in Maryland) and the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA). IGES and COLA freely provide models, data, and data analysis and display software (GrADS) to the research community. COLA has also developed a desktop weather forecast system that can be used for research and operational forecasts.

ii. NCMRWF, India

When India received the first supercomputer from the USA under a special (Ronald Reagan-Rajiv Gandhi) agreement for monsoon forecasting, he was invited by India to establish the scientific infrastructure of the monsoon forecast supercomputer center in New Delhi. He was the scientific leader in establishing the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in New Delhi, India. He helped recruit the scientific staff and implemented a global data analysis-assimilation-forecast system in India to make weather forecasts using a global model.

iii. Physics of Weather and Climate, Italy

He conducted regular workshops, symposia and training courses for the benefit of the scientists from developing countries at the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, leading to the establishment of a permanent research group at ICTP.

iv. IRI, USA

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He was one of the members of the group that proposed the scientific plan for the establishment of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction at Columbia University, New York.

v. IPRC, USA

He was one of the members of the Science Working Group that prepared the scientific plan for the establishment of the International Pacific Research Center at Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu.

vi. Gandhi College, India

He has established a degree college for the education of students, especially women, in the rural village of Mirdha in the Ballia district of India.

vii. Climate Dynamics, GMU, USA

He was the founding chair of the Climate Dynamics Ph.D. program at George Mason University (GMU).

viii. AOES, GMU, USA He was the founding chair of the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences at GMU.

SCIENTIFIC WORKING GROUPS: Joint Modeling Experiments; Committees AMIP, CLIVAR NEG-1, DSP, ECMWF-ERA, MONEG, NCEP-CDAS, NCAR-CSM, SMIP, TOGA-NEG, TPOP; MONEX, TRMM, TOGA, GOALS, CLIVAR, ACCP, JSC INSTITUTION BUILDING: Climate Dynamics Ph.D. Program, George Mason University (GMU) Dept. of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, GMU Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), Maryland, USA Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES), Calverton, Maryland, USA National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi, India Physics of Weather and Climate, ICTP, Trieste, Italy CPTEC, Brazil, Organizer training of Brazilian scientists at COLA International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), U. Of Hawaii, Co-author, Initial Science Plan. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRIPC-IRI), Co-author, Initial Proposal Gandhi Degree College, Village - Mirdha, Ballia, UP, India

SCIENTIFIC COLLABORATORS: Coauthors of Papers in Refereed Journals J. Anderson, Atlas, Baker, Bamzai, Bangaru, Baumhefner, Bengtsson, Brankovic, Carton, Chang, Charney, Chen, Das, DeWitt, Dirmeyer, Doty, Estoque, Fennessy, Godbole, Goswami, Gutzler, Hahn, Halem, Herman, Huang, Jiing, , Kalnay, Kinter, Kirtman, Krishnamurthy, Marshall, Marx, Mintz, Misra, Mo, Mooley, Moura, Nigam, C. Nobre, P. Nobre, Palmer, Paolino, Phillips, Ploshay, Randall, K.R.Saha, Sajnani, Sanders, Sato, E.Schneider, Schubert, Sellers, Sethumadhavan, Suryanarayana, Straus, Sud, Suarez, Tribbia, Vernekar, Wallace, P. Webster, Wu, Xue, Yanai, Yang, Yasunari, Zhou, Zhu SCIENTIFIC COLLABORATORS: Coauthors of Panel and Committee Reports D. Anderson, Arkin, Austin, Baker, Barnett, Barber, Bengtsson, Blackmon, Boville, Branstator, Brown, F.Bryan, K. Bryan, Busalacchi, Cane, Charney, Chelton, Clark, Dahl, Duplessy, Elachi, Esbensen, Fuguno, Garstag, Gates, Gent, Ghil, Goodrich, Gordon, Halpern, Harrison, Houze, Hudlow, Kiehl, Krishnamurti, Lukas, Mahlman, Manton, Matsuno, McBean, Molinari, Moritz, Murakami, Neelin, Niiler, North, Randall, Rasmusson, Sarachik, Schott, Simpson, Solomon, Spencer, Stommel, Sumi, Suomi, Thiele, Trenberth, Wallace, F. Webster, P. Webster, Weinman, Weller, Wilheit, Young, Zipser

12

PUBLICATIONS

2016

Zhu, J., and J. Shukla, 2016: Estimation of weather noise in coupled ocean-atmosphere systems using initialized simulations. J. Clim.

2013

Zhu, J., and J. Shukla 2013: The role of air-sea coupling in seasonal prediction of Asian-Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. J. Climate, 26, 5689-5697, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00190.1.

2012

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2012: Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon

rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL051279. Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, 2012: Predictability of the Indian monsoon in coupled general

circulation models. Monsoon Monograph, Volume 2, Chapter 7, 266-306, India Meteorological Department, Editors: Ajit Tyagi et.al.

Lee, S.S., J.Y. Lee, B. Wang, K.J. Ha, K.Y. Heo, F.-F. Jin, D. M. Straus, and J. Shukla, 2012: Interdecadal changes

in the storm track activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Climate Dyn. 39, 313-327, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1188-9.

2011

DelSole, T., M. Tippett, and J. Shukla, 2011: A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal

Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming. Journal of Climate, 24, 909-926.

Pan, X., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 2011: Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Seasonal Cycle and ENSO to Changes in Mean State Induced by a Surface Heat Flux Adjustment in CCSM3. Climate Dynamics, 37, 325-341, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0923-y.

2010

Brunet, G., M. Shapiro, B. Hoskins, M. Moncrieff, R. Dole, G.N. Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, B.

Mills, R. Morss, S. Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J. Schaake, and J. Shukla, 2010: Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1397-1406.

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2010: Model Fidelity Versus Skill in Seasonal Forecasting. Journal of

Climate, 23, 4794-4806. Feudale, L., and J. Shukla, 2010: Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003

summer. Part I: an observational study. Climate Dynamics, 36, 1691-1703. Feudale, L., and J. Shukla, 2010: Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003

summer. Part II: a modeling study. Climate Dynamics, 36, 1705-1715.

13

Lee, J.Y., B. Wang, I.-S. Kang, J. Shukla, A. Kumar, J.-S. Kug, J.K.E. Schemm, J.-J. Luo, T. Yamagata, X. Fu, O. Alves, B. Stern, T. Rosati, and C.-K. Park, 2010: How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle? Climate Dynamics, 35, 267-283.

Shapiro, M., J. Shukla, et al, 2010: An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the 21st Century, Bulletin of

the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1377-1388. Shukla, J., T.N. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller, and J. Slingo, 2010:

Towards a New Generation of World Climate Research and Computing Facilities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1407-1412.

Stan, S., M. Khairoutdinov, C. A. DeMott, D. M. Straus, D. A. Randall, J. L. Kinter III, and J. Shukla,

2010: An Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Simulation with an Embedded Cloud-Resolving Model. Geophys. Res. Letters, 37, L01702, doi:10.1029/2009GL040822.

2009

DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2009: Artificial Skill Due to Predictor Screening. J. Climate, 22, 331-345. Shukla, J., 2009: Seamless prediction of weather and climate: A new paradigm for modeling and

prediction research. MAUSAM, 60, 11-18. Shukla, J., R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller, T.N. Palmer, and J. Slingo, 2009:

Revolution in climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible: A Declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the Amer. Meteo. Soc., 90, 175-178.

Wang, B., J.-Y. Lee, I.-S. Kang, J. Shukla and C.-K. Park et al, 2009: Advance and prospectus of seasonal

prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dynamics, 33, 93-117.

World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, Reading, UK, 6-9 May 2008, Workshop Report

(January 2009). WMO/TD-No. 1468.

2008

Huang, Bohua, and J. Shukla, 2008: Interannual variability of the South Indian Ocean in observations and a coupled model. Indian Journal of Marine Sciences, 37, 13-34.

Jin, E. K., J. L. Kinter III, B. Wang, C.-K. Park, I.-S. Kang, B. Kirtman, J.-S. Kug, A. Kumar, J.-J. Luo, J.

Schemm, J. Shukla and T. Yamagata, 2008: Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3.

Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, 2008: Seasonal persistence and propagation of intraseasonal patterns

over the Indian monsoon region. Climate Dynamics, 30, 353-369. Palmer, T.N., J. Shukla. “Advances in Modelling and Seamless Prediction.” WCRP Accomplishment

Report 2007-2008. pp.7-13. Shukla, J., Daniel Schaffer 2008. A New Climate for Change. TWAS Newsletter, 20, 11 - 18. Wang, B., J.-Y. Lee, J. Shukla, I.-S. Kang, C.-K Park, A. Kumar, B. Kirtman, B. Wang, E. K. Jin et al,

2008: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of APCC/CliPAS 14-Model

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Ensemble Retrospective Seasonal Prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0.

2007

Feudale, L. and J. Shukla, 2007: Role of Mediterranean SST in enhancing the European heat wave of

summer 2003, Geophysical Research Letters, 34. DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027,991 Huang, B. and J. Shukla, 2007: Mechanisms for the Interannual Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean.

Part I: The Role of Remote Forcing from the Tropical Pacific, Journal of Climate, 20, 2917-2936. Huang, B. and J. Shukla, 2007: Mechanisms for the Interannual Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean.

Part II: Regional Processes, Journal of Climate, 20, 2937-2960. Krishnamurthy, V. and J. Shukla, 2007: Intraseasonal and Seasonally Persisting Patterns of Indian

Monsoon Rainfall, Journal of Climate, 20, 3-20. Randall, D., R. Wood, S. Bony, R. Coleman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pittman, J. Shukla, J.

Srinivasan, R. Stouffer, A. Sumi, and K. Taylor, 2007: Climate Models and Their Evaluation. Chapter 8 of IPCC Report, "Climate Change 2007, The Physical Science Basis" 589-662.

Shukla, J., 2007: Monsoon Mysteries. Science, 318, 204 – 205. Wang, B., J-Y Lee, I-S Kang, J. Shukla, S.N. Hameed, C-K Park, 2007: Coupled Predictability of

Seasonal Tropical Precipitation. CLIVAR Exchanges, 12, 17-18. Wang, B., J.-Y Lee, I-S Kang, J. Shukla, J-S Kug, A. Kumar, J. Schemm, J-J Luo, T. Yamagata, and C-K

Park, 2007: How accurately do coupled climate models predict the leading modes of Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability? Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-007-0310-5.

2006

DelSole, T. and J. Shukla, 2006: Correction Note on “Linear Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall for Indian

Subdivisions. COLA Technical Report, 207, 8pp. DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Linear Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall for Indian Subdivisions. COLA

Technical Report, 208, 9 pp. DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2006: Specification of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature.

Journal of Climate, 19, 2691-2716. Huang, B., J. Shukla, 2006: Interannual SST Variability in the Southern Subtropical and Extra-tropical

Ocean. COLA Technical Report, 223, 20 pp. Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, 2006: Seasonal Persistence and Propagation of Intraseasonal Patterns

over the Indian Monsoon Region. COLA Technical Report, 206, 46 pp. Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D. Paolino, 2006: Climate Model Fidelity and

Projections of Climate Change. Geophysical Research Letters, 33.

15

Shukla, J. and J. L. Kinter III, 2006: Predictability of seasonal climate variations: A pedagogical review. Predictability of Weather and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, eds.: Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, p. 306-341.

2005 DelSole, T., J. Shukla, 2005: Specification of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature. COLA

Technical Report, 179, 70pp. Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 2005: Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic

Ocean. Journal of Climate, 18, 1652-1672. Kang, I.-S. and J. Shukla, “Dynamical seasonal prediction and predictability of monsoon.” The Asian

Monsoon (B. Wang, ed.): Chichester, UK: Praxis Publishers Ltd., p. 585-612. Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, 2005: Intraseasonal and Seasonally Persisting Patterns of Indian

Monsoon Rainfall. Cola Technical Report, 188, 42 pp. Manganello, J., and J. Shukla, 2005: The Influence of Sea surface Temperature Anomalies on Low-

Frequency Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. COLA Technical Report, 199, 65 pp. Straus, D., and J. Shukla, 2005: The Known, the Unknown and the Unknowable in the Predictability of

Weather. COLA Technical Report, 175, 22pp. Wang, B., Q. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla and F. Doblas-Reyes, 2005: Fundamental

challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 32.

2004

Huang, Bohua, Paul Schopf, J. Shukla, 2004: Intrinsic Ocean-Atmosphere Variability of the Tropical

Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 17, 2058-2077

2003 Huang, B., P. Schopf, and J. Shukla, 2003: Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Variability in the Tropical

Atlantic Ocean. COLA Technical Report, 135, 57 pp. Straus, D., D. Paolino, J. Shukla, S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion, and A. Kumar, 2003: Predictability

of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation During Autumn, Winter and Spring. Journal of Climate, 16, 3629-3649.

2002

Altshuler, Eric, M. Fennessy, J. Shukla, H. Juang, E. Rogers, K. Mitchell, and M. Kanamitsu, 2002:

Seasonal simulations over North America with a GCM and three regional models. COLA Technical Report, 60pp.

Del Sole, T., and J. Shukla, 2002: Linear prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. Journal of Climate, 15, 3645-3658.

16

Huang, B., P. Schopf and J. Shukla, 2002: Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic. CLIVAR Exchanges, 7 (No. 3/4) 24-27.

Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002a: Intercomparison of

atmospheric GCM simulated anomalies associated with the 1997-98 El Niño event. Journal of Climate, 15, 2791-2805.

Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, B. Wang, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, and coauthors, 2002b:

Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dynamics, 19, 383-395.

Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2002: Interactive coupled ensemble: A new coupling strategy for CGCMs. Geophysical. Research Letters, 29, 1367. Straus, D., D. Paolino, J. Shukla, S. Shubert, M. Suarex, A. Kumar, and P. Pegion, 2002: Predictability of

the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation During Autumn, Winter, and Spring. COLA Technical Report, 51pp.

Straus, D. M., and J. Shukla, 2002: Does ENSO force the PNA? Journal of Climate, 15, 2340 - 2358.

2001 Blackmon, M., …, J. Shukla, …, E. K. Schneider, and coauthors, 2001: The Community Climate System

Model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 2357-2376. Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla, M. Balmaseda, N. Graham, C. Penland, Y. Xue, S. Zebiak, 2001: Current status

of ENSO forecast skill. World Climate Research Programme (WRCP) Report, 23/01, 26pp.

Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, 2001: Observed and model simulated interannual variability of the Indian monsoon. Mausam, 52, 133-150.

Shukla, J. (ed.), 2001: Dynamics of Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Processes: Selected Papers of Jule Gregory Charney. A. Deepak Publication (Hampton, VA, 611 pp).

2000 Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 2000:Seasonal

Fennessy, M., J. Shukla, 2000: Seasonal prediction over North America with a regional model nested in a global model. Journal of Climate, 13, 2605-2627.

Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2000: Influence of the Indian Summer Monsoon on ENSO. Quarterly

Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 126, 213-239. Krishnamurthy, V. and J. Shukla, 2000: Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India.

Journal of Climate, 13, 4366-4377. Reale, O. and J. Shukla, 2000: Modeling the effects of vegetation on Mediterranean climate during the

Roman classical period. Part II: Model simulation. Global and Planetary Change, 25, 185-214. Shukla, J., D. A. Paolino, D. M. Straus, D. DeWitt, M. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter, L. Marx and R. Mo, 2000:

Dynamical Seasonal Predictions with the COLA Atmospheric Model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,126, 2265-2291.

17

Shukla, J., J. Anderson, D. Baumhefner, C. Brankovic, Y. Chang, E. Kalnay, L. Marx, T. Palmer, D. A. Paolino, J. Ploshay, S. Schubert, D. M. Straus, M. Suarez, J. Tribbia, 2000: Dynamical Seasonal Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 2593-2606.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 2000: Distinguishing between the SST-forced variability and internal

variability in mid-latitudes: Analysis of observations and GCM simulations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,126, 2323-2350.

1999

Bamzai, A. S., and J. Shukla, 1999: Relation between Eurasian Snow Cover, Snow Depth, and the Indian

Summer Monsoon: An Observational Study. Journal of Climate, 12, 3117-3132. Fennessy, M. J., and J. Shukla, 1999: Impact of Initial Soil Wetness on Seasonal Atmospheric Prediction. Journal of Climate, 12, 3167-3180.

Schneider, E. K., B. Huang, D. G. DeWitt, J. L. Kinter, B. P. Kirtman, and J. Shukla, 1999: Ocean Data Assimilation Initialization and Prediction of ENSO with a Coupled GCM. Monthly Weather Review, 127, 1187-1207.

Shukla, J., J. L. Kinter, E. K. Schneider, D. M. Straus, 1999: Chapter 3: Modelling of the Climate System.

Climate Change: an integrated perspective. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Editors: P. Mertens and J. Rotmans, 51-104.

1998

Fennessy, M., and J. Shukla, 1998: Seasonal Prediction Experiments with a Regional Model Nested in a

Global Model. COLA Technical Report, 63, 52 pp. Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting.

Science, 282, 728-731. Webster, P.J., V.O. Magana, T.N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R.A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: The

monsoon: Processes, predictability, and prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 14451-14510.

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1998: Model Simulation of the Influence of Global SST Anomalies on the Sahel Rainfall. Monthly Weather Review, 126, 2782-2792.

1997 Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997a: An examination of AGCM simulated surface wind stress and low level

winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 985-998. Huang, B., and J. Shukla, 1997b: Characteristics of interannual and decadal variability in a general

circulation model of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 27, 1693-1712.

Kinter, J., D. DeWitt, P. Dirmeyer, M. Fennessy, B. Kirtman, L. Marx, E. Schneider, J. Shukla and D.

Straus, 1997: The COLA Atmosphere-Biosphere General Circulation Model, Volume I: Formulation. COLA Technical Report, 51, 46 pp.

18

Kirtman, B.P., J. Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu and E.K. Schneider, 1997: Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean-global atmosphere system. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 789-808.

Schneider, E.K., J. Carton, B. Giese, B. Huang, B.P. Kirtman, J. Shukla, and Z. Zhu, 1997: Annual cycle

and ENSO in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 680-702.

Shukla, J., D. Paolino, B. Kirtman, D. DeWitt, P. Dirmeyer, B. Doty, M. Fennessy, B. Huang, J. Kinter,

L. Marx, E. Schneider, D. Straus and Z. Zhu, 1997: A Forecast of Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in North America for Winter (JFM). COLA Technical Report, 50, 14 pp.

Straus, D.M., and J. Shukla, 1997: Variations of midlatitude transient dynamics associated with ENSO.

Journal of Atmospheric Science, 54, 777-790.

1996 Dirmeyer, P.A., and J. Shukla, 1996: The effect on regional and global climate of expansion of the

world’s deserts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 122, 530, 451-482. Huang, B. and J. Shukla, 1996: A comparison of two surface wind analyses over the tropical Atlantic

during 1980-87. Journal of Climate, 9, 906-927. Nobre. P. and J. Shukla, 1996: Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the

tropical Atlantic and South America. Journal of Climate, 9, 2464-2479. Shukla, J., and B. Kirtman, 1996: Predictability and Error Growth in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere

Model. COLA Technical Report, 24, 11pp. Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1996: The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part II:

Afforestation. Journal of Climate, 9, 3260-3275.

1995 Huang, B., J.A. Carton and J. Shukla, 1995: A numerical simulation of the variability in the tropical

Atlantic Ocean, 1980-88. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 25, 835-854. Kirtman, B., J Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu, and E. Schneider, 1995: Multiseasonal Predictions with a

Coupled Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere System. COLA Technical Report, 15, 59 pp. Paolino, D. A., Q. Yang, B. Doty, J. Kinter, J. Shukla, D. Straus, 1995: A pilot reanalysis project at

COLA. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 76, 697-710. Schneider, E.K., B. Huang, and J. Shukla, 1995: Ocean Wave Dynamics of El Niño. Journal of Climate,

8, 2415-2439. Shukla, J. 1995: On the initiation and persistence of the Sahel drought. Natural Climate Variability on

Decade-to-Century Time Scales, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 44-48. Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1995: The effect of Eurasian snow cover on Indian monsoon.

Journal of Climate, 8, 248-266.

1994

19

Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1994: Albedo as a modulator of climate response to tropical deforestation.

Journal of Geophysical. Research, 99, 923-935. Dirmeyer, P., and J. Shukla: 1994 The Effect on Climate of Doubling Deserts. COLA Technical Report,

3, 61 pp. Dirmeyer, P., and J. Shukla, 1994: The Response of the General Circulation to Deforestation in the

Tropics. Proc. 5th Symposium on Global Change 131-134. Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1994: GCM Simulations of active and break monsoon periods. Proc.

MONEG International Conference on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994.

Fennessy, M. J., J. L. Kinter III, B. Kirtman, L. Marx., S. Nigam, E. Schneider, J. Shukla., D. Straus. A.

Vernekar, Y. Xue, and J. Zhou, 1994: The simulated Asian monsoon: A GCM sensitivity study. Journal of Climate, 7, 33-43.

Fennessy, M., J Kinter, L. Marx, E. Schneider, P.J. Sellers, and J. Shukla, 1994: GCM Simulations of the

Life Cycles of the 1988 US Drought and Heat wave. COLA Technical Report, 6, 68 pp. Shukla, J., M. Fennessy, 1994: Simulation and predictability of monsoons. Proc. MONEG International

Conference on Monsoon Variability and Prediction, Trieste, Italy, 9-13 May, 1994, pp 567-575. Yang, R., M. J. Fennessy and J. Shukla, 1994: The influence of initial soil wetness on medium range

surface weather forecasts, Monthly Weather Review, 122, 471-485. Yang, R., J. Shukla and P. J. Sellers, 1994: The influence of changes in vegetation type on the surface

energy budget. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 11, 139-161.

1993 Dirmeyer, P. A. and J. Shukla, 1993: Observational and Modeling Studies of the Influence of Soil

Moisture Anomalies on Atmospheric Circulation (Review). Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations. NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental Change, 6, Editor: J. Shukla, 1-24.

Fennessy, M.J., J.L. Kinter III, L. Marx, P. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1993: Influence of initial soil wetness

on GCM simulation of the 1988 U.S. drought and heat wave. Conference on Hydroclimatology (Anaheim, CA, 17-22 January 1993).

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1993: Aperiodic variability in the Cane-Zebick model: A diagnostic

study. Journal of Climate, 5, 628-638. Robinson, A.R., C.J. Garrett, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, S. Manage, S.G. Philander, N. Pinardi, W. Roether,

F.A. Schott and J. Shukla, 1993: Mediterranean and Global Ocean and Climate Dynamics. EOS Transactions, 74, 506-507.

Shukla, J. 1993: Predictability of short-term climate variations. Prediction of Interannual Climate

Variations. NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental Change, 6, Editor: J. Shukla, 217-232. Vernekar, A., J. Zhou and J. Shukla, 1993: The effect of Eurasian spring snow cover on Indian summer

monsoon. WCRP-80, WMO/TD-No. 546, 69-73.

20

Xue, Y. and J. Shukla, 1993: The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part I: Desertification. Journal of Climate, 6, 2232-2245.

1992 Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1992: Influence of Global SST on GCM simulations of the Northern

Hemisphere Monsoon Circulations of 1987 and 1988. Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October 21-24, 1991), WMO, WCRP-68, WMO/TD-No. 470, 2.37-2.46.

Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx, J. L. Kinter III and J. Shukla, 1992: The influence of global SST on the 1988

U.S. Drought: A comparison with two general circulation models. Proc. Workshop on 1988 U.S. Drought, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.

Shukla, J. and M. J. Fennessy, 1992: Idealized numerical experiments to diagnose the simulated Asian

summer monsoon circulation and rainfall. Report of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group Workshop on Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of Monsoons (October 21-24, 1991), WMO, WCRP-68, WMO/TD-No. 470, 2.153-2.157.

1991

Carton, J. A. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Marine

Systems, 1, 299-313. Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1991: Comparison of the impact of the 1982/83 and 1986/88 Pacific

SST anomalies on time-mean prediction of atmospheric circulation and rainfall. Journal of Climate, 4, 407-423.

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability and variability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.

Journal of Marine Systems, 1, 217-228. Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1991: Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Journal of

Climate, 3, 2-22. Kinter III, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx and B. Doty, 1991: Relationship between GCM forecast errors and

seasonal variability: Tropical heating and extratropical circulation. IUGG XX General Assembly, IAMAP Symposium on Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow and Variability (Vienna, Austria, 19-23 August, 1991). IAMAP, 1991.

Nobre, C. A., P. J. Sellers and J. Shukla, 1991: Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change.

Journal of Climate, 4, 957-988. Shukla, J. 1991: Short term climate variability and predictions. Climate Change: Science, Impacts and

Policy, Eds. J. Jager and H.L. Ferguson. New York: Cambridge University Press, 203-210. Shukla, J., M. J. Fennessy, J. L. Kinter III, L. Marx and E. K, Schneider, 1991: Seasonal predictions with

the COLA GCM. Proc. ICTP/WMO Technical Conference on Long-Range Weather Forecasting Research, 249.

Xue, Y., P. J. Sellers, J. Kinter and J. Shukla, 1991: A simplified model for global climate studies.

Journal of Climate, 4, 345-364.

21

Xue, Y., and J. Shukla, 1991: A Study of the Mechanism and Impact of Biosphere Feedback on the

African Climate. Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology and the Special Session on Hydrometeorology. September 10-13, 1991.

1990

Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1990: The global hydrologic and energy cycles: Suggestions for studies in the

pre-GEWEX period. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 71, 181-189. Shukla, J., C. A. Nobre and P. J. Sellers, 1990: Amazonia deforestation and climate change. Science, 247,

1322-1325.

1989 Kinter, J. L. and J. Shukla, 1989: Reanalysis for TOGA (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere). Bulletin

of the American Meteorological Society, 70, 1422-1427. Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989: Index of activity of the monsoon trough over India. MAUSAM, 40,

247-258. Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1989: Main features of the westward-moving summer monsoon low

pressure systems which form over the Indian regions during the summer monsoon season and their relation to the monsoon rainfall. MAUSAM, 40, 137-152.

Sato, N., P. J. Sellers, D. A. Randall, E. K. Schneider, J. Shukla, J. L. Kinter III, Y.-T. Hou and E.

Albertazzi, 1989: Effects of implementing the simple biosphere model (SiB) in a general circulation model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 46, 2757-2782.

Shukla, J., 1989: Tropical forecasting: Predictability perspective. Australian Meteorological Magazine,

37, 141-153.

1988 Bengtsson, L. and J. Shukla, 1988: Integration of space and in situ observation to study climate change.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 69, 1130-1143. Charney, J. G., E. Kalnay, E. K. Schneider and J. Shukla, 1988: A study of the dynamics of the ITCZ in a

symmetric atmosphere-ocean model. (Joint IUTAM/IUGG Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5-9 December 1977), New Delhi, India, NASA Technical Memo, 86220, 20pp.

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988: Impact of the 1982-3 and 1986-7 Pacific SST anomalies on time

mean prediction with the GLAS GCM. Proceedings of a Workshop on Modelling the Sensitivity and Variations of the Ocean-Atmosphere System (11-13 May, 1988), ECMWF, England, World Climate Research Program Report: WCRP-15. (WMO/TD - No. 254), Geneva, pp. 26-44.

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla, 1988: Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to the

time-varying El Niño SST anomalies during May 1982 through October 1983. Journal of Climate, 1, 195-211.

Kinter, J. L., J. Shukla, L. Marx, E. Schneider, 1988: A simulation of the winter and summer circulation

with the NMC global spectral model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 45, 2486-2522.

22

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1988: Characteristics of the westward-moving summer monsoon low

pressure systems over the Indian region and their relationship with the monsoon rainfall. Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.

Shukla, J., 1988: Predictability of monthly mean circulation and rainfall: Part I: Classical dynamical

predictability experiments; and Part II: Influences of 1982-83 and 1986-87 El Niño SST anomalies. Proceedings of the Workshop on Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (16-18 May 1988), ECMWF, England, 251-261.

Shukla, J., 1988: Variability of rainfall over tropical oceans: Scientific basis and justification for

TRMM. Tropical Rainfall Measurements. Editors: J. S. Theon and N. Fugono, A. Deepak Publishing, pp. 75-79.

Shukla, J. and M. Fennessy, 1988: Prediction of time-mean atmospheric circulation and rainfall:

Influence of Pacific SST anomaly. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 45, 9-28. Shukla, J., D. A. Mooley and D. A. Paolino, 1988: Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall

over India. Persistent meteo-oceanographic anomalies and teleconnections, Pontificale academiae scientiarum scripta varia, 69. Editors: C. Chagas and G. Puppi, Pontificia Academia Scientiarum, pp. 147-178.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the

atmosphere to observations. Part I: Mean fields and the annual harmonic. Atmosphere-Ocean, 26, 541-574.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the

atmosphere to observations. Part II: Stationary waves and transient fluctuations. Atmosphere-Ocean, 26, 575-607.

Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1988: The seasonal cycle of energetics from the GLAS/UMD Climate GCM.

NASA Technical Memo, 100714. Sud, Y. C., J. Shukla, and Y. Mintz, 1988: Influence of land-surface roughness on atmospheric circulation

and rainfall: A sensitivity study with GCM. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 27, 1036-1054.

1987 Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987: Evaluation of April 500 mb ridge and Darwin pressure trend as

predictors for Indian monsoon rainfall. Proceedings of the Fifth Conference on Applied Meteorology (10-12 March 1987), Baltimore, MD, published by AMS, 46-48.

Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1987: Variability and forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over

India. Monsoon Meteorology. Editors: C. P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti. Oxford University Press, pp. 26-59.

Shukla, J, 1987: General circulation modeling and the tropics. Geophysiology of Amazonia: Vegetation

and Climate Interactions. Editor: R. E. Dickinson, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 409-461. Shukla, J., 1987: Interannual variability of monsoons. Monsoons. Editors: Jay Fein and Pamela L.

Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 399-464.

23

Shukla, J., 1987: Long range forecasting of Indian monsoons. Science Age, November, 21-23. Shukla, J, 1987: Long-range forecasting of monsoons. Monsoons. Editors: Jay S. Fein and Pamela L.

Stephens, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 523-547. Shukla, J, 1987: Numerical simulation of atmospheric response to observed SST anomalies and oceanic

response to observed wind stress: Intercomparison of results from various GCMs. Proceedings of the Workshop on Predictability in the Medium and Extended Range (17-19 March 1986), ECMWF, England, pp. 205-220.

Shukla, J. and D. A. Mooley, 1987: Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India.

Monthly Weather Review, 115, 695-703.

1986 Shukla, J., 1986: SST anomalies and blocking. Advances in Geophysics, 29. Editor: R. Benzi, Academic

Press, Inc., pp. 443-452.

1985 Fennessy, M. J., L. Marx and J. Shukla, 1985: General circulation model sensitivity to 1982-83 equatorial

Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Monthly Weather Review, 113, 858-864. Shukla, J., 1985: Air-Sea-Land Interactions: Global and Regional Habitability. Origins of Life, 15, Rydell

Publishing Co., Holland, 353-363. Shukla, J., 1985: Predictability. Issues in atmospheric and oceanic modeling, Part II. Weather

Dynamics. Advances in Geophysics, 28B. Editor: S. Manabe, Academic Press, Inc., pp. 87-122. Shukla, J. and E. M. Rasmusson, 1985: Variability of the tropical circulation. Proceedings of the TOGA

Conference (Paris, September 1984), WCRP Publication Series No. 4 (WMO/TD - No. 65), 1985, pp. II.24-II.39. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.

1984

Goswami, B. N. and J. Shukla, 1984: Quasi-periodic oscillations in a symmetric general circulation

model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 41, 20-37. Goswami, B. N., J. Shukla, E. K. Schneider and Y. C. Sud, 1984: Study of the dynamics on the

intertropical convergence zone with a symmetric version of the GLAS climate model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 41, 5-19.

Gutzler, D. S. and J. Shukla, 1984: Analogs in the wintertime 500 mb height field. Journal of

Atmospheric Science, 41, 177-189. Shukla, J., 1984: Predictability of a large atmospheric model. Predictability and Turbulence, American

Institute of Physics. Editors: G. Holloway and B. J. West, pp. 449-456. Shukla, J., 1984: Predictability of time averages, Part II. The influence of the boundary forcings.

Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting. Editors: D. N. Burridge and E. Kallen, Springer-Verlag, pp. 155-206.

24

1983

Chen, T. C. and J. Shukla, 1983: Diagnostics analysis and spectral energetics of a blocking event in

GLAS climate model simulation. Monthly Weather Review, 111, 3-23. Estoque, M. A., J. C. Jung and J. Shukla, 1983: African wave disturbances in a General Circulation

Model. Tellus, 35A, 287-295. Mo, K. C. and J. Shukla, 1983: Persistent anomalies of the Southern Hemisphere circulation. NASA

Technical Memo, 84983, pp. 139-141. Shukla, J., 1983: Ability and limitations of general circulation models to simulate climate and climate

variability. Proceedings of the Study Conference on the Physical Basis for Climate Prediction of Seasonal, Annual and Decadal Time Scales (Sept. 13-17, 1982), Leningrad, USSR. WCP-47, pp. 97-127.

Shukla, J., 1983: Comments on ‘Natural variability and predictability’. Monthly Weather Review, 111,

581-585. Shukla, J., 1983: On physical basis and feasibility of monthly and seasonal prediction with a large GCM.

Proceedings of WMO-CAS/JAS Expert Study Conference on Long Range Forecasting (1-4 December, 1982), Princeton, NJ, WMO, LRF Publication Series No. 1., pp. 142-153.

Shukla, J. and D. S. Gutzler, 1983: Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential

heights over the Northern Hemisphere. Monthly Weather Review, 111, 1273-1279. Shukla, J. and K. C. Mo, 1983: Seasonal and geographical variation of blocking. Monthly Weather

Review, 111, 388-402. Shukla, J. and D. A. Paolino, 1983: The Southern Oscillation and long range forecasting of the summer

monsoon rainfall over India. Monthly Weather Review, 111, 1830-1837. Shukla, J. and J. M. Wallace, 1983: Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial

Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 40, 1613-1630.

1982 Shukla, J., 1982: Predictability of time averages: The influence of the boundary forcing. NASA

Technical Memo, 85092, pp. 63. Shukla, J., 1982: Predictability of the tropical atmosphere. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter,

November, 7-9. Shukla, J. and W. E. Baker, 1982: Analysis and prediction of the monsoon flow during the summer

MONEX. Proceedings of the International Conference on Scientific Results of the Monsoon Experiment (October, 1981), Indonesia, (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva) 4.3-4.11.

Shukla, J. and Y. Mintz, 1982: Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the earth's climate.

Science, 215, 1498-1501.

25

1981

Charney, J. G. and J. Shukla, 1981: Predictability of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics, Editors: Sir James

Lighthill and R. P. Pearce, Cambridge University Press, pp. 99- 109. Charney, J. G., J. Shukla and K. C. Mo, 1981: Comparison of a barotropic blocking theory with

observations. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 38, 762-779. Chen, T. C., H. G. Marshall and J. Shukla, 1981: Spectral Analysis and diagnosis of nonlinear

interactions of large-scale moving waves at 200 mb in the GLAS general circulation model. Monthly Weather Review, 109, 959-974.

Godbole, R. V. and J. Shukla, 1981: Global analysis of January and July sea level pressure. NASA

Technical Memo, 82097. Kalnay, E., W. E. Baker and J. Shukla, 1981: Numerical prediction of the large scale tropical flow.

Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7-11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India, (Published by WMO).

Moura, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1981: On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil: Observations, theory

and numerical experiments with a general circulation model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 38, 2653-2675.

Paolino, D. and J. Shukla, 1981: Interannual variability of monsoon rainfall and Northern Hemispheric

surface pressure. Proceedings of the Symposium on Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7-11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India. Edited by R. P. Pearce. World Meteorological Organization, pp. 41-48

Saha, K. R., F. Sanders and J. Shukla, 1981: Westward propagating predecessors of monsoon

depressions. Monthly Weather Review, 109, 330-343. Shukla, J., 1981: “Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.

Vol. 38, No.12, 2547 – 2572. Shukla, J., 1981: Physical basis for prediction of tropical droughts. Proceedings of the Symposium on

Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Droughts (7-11 December, 1981), New Delhi, India. Edited by R. P. Pearce, World Meteorological Organization, pp. 27-40.

Shukla, J., 1981: Predictability of the tropical atmosphere. NASA Technical Memo, 83829, pp 51. Shukla, J., 1981: Structure and dynamics of monsoon depressions: The MONEX depression (July 1979).

(Invited paper) Proceedings of the FGGE/MONEX Meeting (January, 1981), Tallahassee, Florida, p. 11.3-11.7 (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva). NASA Technical Memo, 83907, pp. 217-222.

Shukla, J. and Y. C. Sud, 1981: Effect of cloud-radiation feedback on the climate of a general circulation

model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 38, 2337-2353. Shukla, J., R. Atlas and W. E. Baker, 1981: Numerical prediction of the monsoon depression of 5-7 July,

1979. Proceedings of the FGGE/MONEX Meeting (January, 1981), Tallahassee, Florida, p. 11.3-11.7 (published by ICSU/WMO, Geneva). NASA Technical Memo, 83907, pp. 223-230.

26

Shukla, J., K. C. Mo and M. Eaton, 1981: Climatology of blocking in the GLAS climate model. NASA

Technical Memo, 83907, pp. 207-216. Shukla, J., D. Straus, D. Randall, Y. Sud and L. Marx, 1981: Winter and summer simulations with the

GLAS climate model. NASA Technical Memo, 83866, pp. 1-282. Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1981: Global and local fluctuations of winter and summer simulations with

the GLAS climate model. NASA Technical Memo, 83907, pp. 231-236. Straus, D. M. and J. Shukla, 1981: Space-time spectral analysis of the GLAS model. Journal of

Atmospheric Science, 38, 902-917.

1980 Shukla, J., Y. Sud and E. Sabatino, 1980: Preliminary results of a January simulation with an improved

version of the GLAS model. NASA Technical Memo, 80650, pp. 121-132.

1979 Halem, M., J. Shukla, Y. Mintz, M. L. Wu, R. Godbole, G. Herman and Y. Sud, 1979: Comparisons of

Observed Seasonal Climate Features with a Winter and Summer Numerical Simulation Produced with the GLAS General Circulation Model. GARP Publication Series, 22, 207-253.

Shukla, J., and B. Bangaru, 1979: Effect of a Pacific SST anomaly on the circulation over North

America: A numerical experiment with the GLAS model. GARP Publication Series, 22, 501-518.

1978

Shukla, J., 1978: CISK-barotropic-baroclinic instability and the growth of monsoon depressions. Journal

of Atmospheric Science, 35, 495-508.

1977 Charney, J. G. and J. Shukla, 1977: Predictability of Monsoons. Presented at the Joint IUTAM/IUGG

Symposium on Monsoon Dynamics (5-9 December, 1977), New Delhi, India. Shukla, J. 1977: Barotropic-baroclinic instability of mean zonal wind during summer monsoon. Pure and

Applied Geophysics, 115, 1449-1462. Shukla, J. and B. N. Misra, 1977: Relationships between sea surface temperature and wind speed over

the Central Arabia Sea, and monsoon rainfall over India. Monthly Weather Review, 105, 998-1002.

1976

Hahn, D. and J. Shukla, 1976: An apparent relationship between Eurasia snow cover and Indian monsoon

rainfall. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 33, 2461-2463. Shukla, J., 1976: Reply. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 253-255.

27

1975

Shukla, J., 1975: Effect of Arabian sea-surface temperature anomaly on Indian summer monsoon: A

numerical experiment with GFDL model. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 32, 503-511.

1974 Shukla, J. and K. R. Saha, 1974: Computation of non-divergent stream functions and irrational velocity

potential from the observed winds. Monthly Weather Review, 102, 419-425.

1973 Phillips, N. A. and J. Shukla, 1973: On the strategy of combining coarse and find grid meshes in

numerical weather prediction. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12, 736-770.

1972 Mooley, D. A. and J. Shukla, 1972: Concurrent association between 700 mb, 5 day mean contour

patterns and 5 day rainfall anomaly over India during July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 23, 29-34.

Shukla, J., 1972: Barotropic Model, A Review. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 23,

201-206.

1971 Shukla, J., 1971: On the numerical solution of diabatic quasi-geostrophic omega equations. Indian

Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 22, 35-46. Shukla, J. and P. P. Sajnani, 1971: A note on the magnitude of horizontal divergence. Indian Journal of

Meteorology and Geophysics, 22, 235-236.

1970 Shukla, J. and K. R. Saha, 1970: Application of nondivergent barotropic model to predict flow patterns in

the Indian region. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 48, 405-410.

1969 Shukla, J., 1969: An iterative scheme for diagnostic studies: A proposal. Indian Journal of Meteorology

and Geophysics, 20, 119-122. Shukla, J., 1969: A numerical experiment on a disturbance in the tropical easterlies. Journal of the

Meteorological Society of Japan, 47, 109-114. Shukla, J., 1969: An objective method of quantitative estimation of abnormal pentad rainfall over

Ratnagiri during July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 20, 59-60. Shukla, J., 1969: A numerical experiment on disturbances in the topical easterlies. Proceedings of the

WMO/IUGG Symp. On NWP, Tokyo (26 Nov. – 4 Dec., 1968), pp III – 109, IV – 63, IV – 64.

28

1968 Shukla, J. and R. Suryanarayana, 1968: Forecasting five-day mean contours of 700 mb using empirical

influence co-efficients. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 19, 407-412. Shukla, J., S. K. Das and S. S. Kutival, 1968: Forecasting of pentad rainfall anomaly over Allahabad

during the month of July. Scientific Report No. 58, India Meteorological Department. Shukla, J., S. K. Das and A. Sethumadhavan, 1968: Forecasting pentad rainfall anomaly over coastal

Andhra Pradesh in July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 19, 445-448.

1967 Shukla, J., 1967: An objective method of forecasting pentad rainfall anomaly in Konkan coast during

July. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 18, 363-366.

29

COMMITTEE AND PANEL REPORTS: 2000: Community Climate System Model Plan (2000-2005), 2000: NCAR/UCAR, pp. 47. 1997: A Scientific Strategy of U.S. Participation in CLIVAR/GOALS, National Research Council, (NAS). 1995: CLIVAR Science Plan, World Climate Research Program (ICSU, WMO, UNESCO) 1994: Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate,

Climate Research Committee, National Research Council (NAS). 1991: Prospects for Extending the Range of Prediction of the Global Atmosphere. Panel on DERF. National Research Council (NAS). 1990: TOGA. A Review of Progress and Future Opportunities. Panel on TOGA. (NRC/NAS) 1989: Reanalysis for TOGA. Ad-Hoc Panel on TOGA Reanalysis. National Research Council (NAS). 1989: Prospects for Extending the Range of Prediction of the Global Atmosphere. Panel on Dynamical Extended

Range Forecasting. National Research Council (NAS). 1989: Tropical Rain Measurement Mission. (TRMM). Report of the Science Steering Group for TRMM. NASA. 1988: Atmosphere Forcing for Ocean Circulation. INO-TOGA-WOCE workshop, Report 89-1. 1988: Modeling the Sensitivity and Variations of the Ocean-Atmosphere System. WCRP -15 (WMO/TD-No.

254). WMO, Geneva. 1986: U.S. Participation in the TOGA program: A Research Strategy. Advisory panel for the Tropical

Ocean/Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program. National Research Council (NAS). 1986: Comparison of Simulations by Numerical Models of the Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Circulation to Sea

Surface Temperature Anomalies. WCP-121 (WMO/TD No. 138). WMO, Geneva. 1985: Scientific Plan for the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program. International Scientific

Steering Group for TOGA. WCRP Publication Series No. 3, WMO/TD No. 64. WMO, Geneva. 1985: Report of a Workshop on the Interannual Variability, TOGA and Monsoons. US TOGA Report No. 5. 1982: Report of the planning meeting for the Monsoon Climate Program. The World Climate Research Program.

WCP-27, WMO, Geneva. 1980: Report of the Workshop on Drought Forecasting for Northeast Brazil and Plans for Climate Research in

Brazil. Brazilian National Research Council, Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, Brazil. 1977: Plan for U.S. Participation in the Monsoon Experiment (MONEX). Monsoon Experiment Panel. National

Research Council (NAS). 1975: Report of the meeting on Weather-Food Interactions. Endicott House, M.I.T.

30

THESIS SUPERVISION Carlos A. Nobre 1983 Ph.D. (MIT) Ramdas Singh 1989 MS (UMCP) Paul Frederickson 1989 MS (UMCP) Yu-Tai Hou 1990 Ph.D. (UMCP) Horng-Syi Shen 1991 MS (UMCP) Paul A. Dirmeyer 1992 Ph.D. (UMCP) Vinod Dubey 1992 MS (UMCP) Bohua Huang 1992 Ph.D. (UMCP) Benjamin P. Kirtman 1992 Ph.D. (UMCP) Runhua Yang 1992 Ph.D. (UMCP) Paulo Nobre 1993 Ph.D. (UMCP) J. Zhou 1993 Ph.D. (UMCP) D. Dewitt 1994 Ph.D. (UMCP) Peitao Peng 1995 Ph.D. (UMCP) Oreste Reale 1996 Ph.D. (UMCP) Clemente A.S. Tanajura 1996 Ph.D. (UMCP)] Anjuli S. Bamzai 1997 Ph.D. (GMU) Julia Manganello Ph.D. (GMU) Susan Bates Ph.D. (GMU) Laura Feudale Ph.D. (GMU) Kathy Pegion Ph.D. (GMU) X. Pan Ph.D. (GMU) Vivian Nolan Ph.D. (GMU) Kathy Arsenault Ph.D. (GMU) Li Xu Ph.D. (GMU) Member of Ph.D. Thesis Committee: Youkyang Jang, Erik Swenson, Abhishekh Srivastava, Bohar Singh, Priyanka Yadav, Liang Yu UMCP: University of Maryland, College Park GMU: George Mason University MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology SCIENTIFIC COLLABORATORS: Coauthors of Panel and Committee Reports D. Anderson, Arkin, Austin, Baker, Barnett, Barber, Bengtsson, Blackmon, Boville, Branstator, Brown, F.Bryan, K. Bryan, Busalacchi, Cane, Charney, Chelton, Clark, Dahl, Duplessy, Elachi, Esbensen, Fuguno, Garstag, Gates, Gent, Ghil, Goodrich, Gordon, Halpern, Harrison, Houze, Hudlow, Kiehl, Krishnamurti, Lukas, Mahlman, Manton, Matsuno, McBean, Molinari, Moritz, Murakami, Neelin, Niiler, North, Randall, Rasmusson, Sarachik, Schott, Simpson, Solomon, Spencer, Stommel, Sumi, Suomi, Thiele, Trenberth, Wallace, F. Webster, P. Webster, Weinman, Weller, Wilheit, Young, Zipser