Seismic Vulnerability and Asset Managementca-nv-awwa.org/canv/downloads/sessions/05/...P13 P17 P16...
Transcript of Seismic Vulnerability and Asset Managementca-nv-awwa.org/canv/downloads/sessions/05/...P13 P17 P16...
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Seismic Vulnerability and Asset Management
Cal-Nevada AWWA Fall ConferenceSacramento, California
October 1, 2013
Don Ballantyne, Ballantyne Consulting LLCLaura Robinson, Kleinfelder
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Agenda
• Introductions and Value Statement
• Asset Management for Municipal Utilities
• Historic Earthquake Damage
• Seismic Risk Evaluation
• Combined Seismic and Non-Seismic Risk
• GIS Tool Use
• Benefit Statement
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Value Statement
• Water Systems Demand Resiliency
• Conventional Asset Management - Risk Distributed Over Design Life
• Seismic Damage is Acute - Widespread Consequences from Discrete Event(s)
• Result:
- Re-prioritization of CIP and O&M $ to Address Combined Risk
- Increased System Resiliency
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Asset Management for Utility Systems
• Define Levels of Acceptable Risk
• Seek to Minimize Total Costs of Assets
o Acquisition
o Operation
o Maintenance
o Renewal/Replace
• Balance Limited Resources and Competing Demands
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• Physical Attributes
• Structural Condition
• Operation and Maintenance Function
• Depreciation/ Present Day Value of Asset
Risk Model Inputs
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• Record Data:
– As-Built Drawings
– Design Drawings
– O&M Manuals
– Bid Documents
– Photos and Videos
– Sketches
• Assessments:
– Field Inspections
– Inspection Technologies
– Work Orders
– Staff Interviews
Data Collection
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• Relative Ranking of Each Asset’s Potential Risk
• Determine Risk Factor
– Product of the Probability of Failure and the Consequence of Failure
URF = S(Fp x Fc )
where:
Fp = probability of failure
Fc = consequence of failure
Utility Risk Factor (URF)
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• Failure to Meet Design Intent
• Failure Modes May Include:
oAge
oCondition
oOperations and Maintenance
oCapacity
o Efficiency
o Safety
Probability of Failure
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• Monetary Cost to Repair/Replace
• Loss of Service
• Residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
• Impacts on Critical Customers
• Environmental Impact
• Regulatory Non-Compliance
Consequence of Failure
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• Public Health and Safety
• High Operating Costs
o Inefficiency
• Secondary Damage
o Property Damage
o Sinkholes
• Public Relations
o Disruption to the Community
Consequence of Failure
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• Relative Ranking of Each Asset’s Potential Risk
• Prioritize Risk throughout System
• Facilitate Capital Improvement Planning (CIP)
• Facilitate O&M Planning
Utility Risk Factor (URF)
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• Mitigate Risk Identified by Addressing:
oProbability of Failure
or
oConsequences of Failure
Utility Risk Factor (URF)
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• Incorporate Seismic Risk into Utility Risk Factor equation
URF = URFNon-Seismic + URFSeismic
Re-Thinking Risk
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Supply Reservoir
WTP
5 MG Steel Tank
10 MG Concrete Reservoir
Liquefiable SoilsLiquefiable Soils
Steel Transmission/Backbone 24-36”
Cast Iron Pipe Distribution
Ductile Iron Pipe Distribution
ASSET CITY Population 105,0007 distribution grid blocks serving 15,000 people ea25’ of pipe/person (375,000’/block)1 manufacturing block #6 (no residential)
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New CommercialManufacturing
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Historic Earthquake Damage
• Water and Wastewater Systems are Damaged in Every Major Earthquake
• No Water for Fire Suppression
• Public Health Impacts
• Business Interruption Losses are Potentially the Most Significant
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Historic Earthquake DamageSan Francisco 1989
100mm
settlement 60mm20mm
Pipe damage in the Marina District made fire suppression difficult
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Historic Earthquake Damage San Francisco 1989
• Santa Clara Valley WD Treatment Plant damaged
• Purissima Hills wire-wrapped tank split open
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Historic Earthquake DamageNorthridge 1994
• 2/3 San Fernando Valley were without water
• Treatment plants and tanks damaged
• LADWP restored 1,000+ pipe breaks in 9 days
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Historic Earthquake DamageKobe 1995
Water / Electricity Restoration
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0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56
Days Following Earthquake
Pe
rce
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of
Pe
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ith
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Urban Area Water
Total Water
Electricity
• 1,200 pipe failures in Kobe drained the system making fire suppression problematic
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Historic Earthquake DamageKobe 1995
• Water and wastewater treatment plants were heavily damaged
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Historic Earthquake DamageChristchurch New Zealand 2011
• Liquefaction along the Avon River caused extensive damage to the buried infrastructure
• Water service was restored to inhabited houses in just over 40 days
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Historic Earthquake DamageTohoku, Japan 2011
Moniwa Water Purification Plant-Damage to the sedimentation inclined basin plates.
• Treatment plants and pipelines were damaged due to shaking.
• Water was restored with the help of mutual aid from cities outside the impact area.
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• Select Earthquake Scenarios that Cover the Regional Seismicity
Seismic Risk Evaluation –Earthquake Hazards
Shakemap Scenarios for:Newport –Inglewood M 6.9 and San Andreas M7.8
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• GIS - Overlay Facilities/Pipe on Hazard Map
• Quantify Earthquake Hazards for Each Facility/Pipe Location for Each Scenario
– Shaking Intensity, Wave Propagation
– Fault Rupture Displacement
– Liquefaction Probability, Lateral Spread PGD
– Other Types of PGD,
Seismic Risk Evaluation –Earthquake Hazards
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• Estimate the Damage to the Water System Infrastructure for Each Scenario
Seismic Risk Evaluation –Infrastructure Fragility
– Treatment plants, pump stations, storage – using fragility relationships specific to each• Published
• Facility specific
• Estimate in terms of % replacement cost
• Restoration time
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• Estimate the Damage to the Water System Infrastructure for Each Scenario
Seismic Risk Evaluation –Infrastructure Fragility
– Pipelines • Fragilities from the
ALA
• Pipeline specific fragilities
• Number of breaks/leaks
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Pipeline Damage
ExamplesSanta Clara Valley WD
City of Burnaby, BC
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• For each scenario use network analysis to determine
– Impact on system
– Outage areas
– People and businesses without service
• Calculate outage/repair time as a function of order of repair, extent of damage and resources available to repair
Seismic Risk Consequences
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Example - Consequences
System Pressures (Seattle -Cascadia Subduction Scenario)
Outage Times (LADWP –Northridge Scenario)
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• Calculate the direct and societal losses for all facilities/ pipelines for each scenario (people-days without water)- Overall system scenario risk
Seismic Risk Consequences
• Annualize the losses aggregating all of the scenarios - Overall system risk
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• Deaggregate the annual loss to each system component as a function of expected damage
• Develop Seismic Utility Risk Factor (URFSeismic)
Seismic Risk Consequences
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• Incorporate Seismic Risk into Utility Risk Factor equation
URF = URFNon-Seismic + URFSeismic
Re-Thinking Risk
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Non-Seismic URF Seismic URF Revised URF Non-Seismic Total
R1 0.021 0.551 0.572 8 4 96%
R2 0.000 0.000 0.000 27 27 0%
R3 0.000 0.000 0.000 27 27 0%
WT1 2.785 0.730 3.515 1 1 21%
P1 2.270 0.027 2.297 2 2 1%
P2 2.028 0.027 2.055 3 3 1%
P3 0.046 0.005 0.051 6 13 10%
P4 0.000 0.000 0.000 27 27 0%
P5 0.004 0.003 0.007 24 24 41%
P6 0.004 0.003 0.007 24 24 41%
P7 0.231 0.022 0.254 4 7 9%
P8 0.013 0.016 0.029 15 15 56%
P9 0.013 0.368 0.380 15 6 97%
P10 0.005 0.224 0.230 23 8 98%
P11 0.006 0.143 0.149 22 12 96%
P12 0.020 0.002 0.022 9 20 9%
P13 0.000 0.000 0.000 27 27 0%
P14 0.011 0.003 0.014 19 21 21%
P15 0.007 0.016 0.024 20 18 69%
P16 0.002 0.002 0.004 26 26 53%
P17 0.061 0.143 0.204 5 9 70%
P18 0.012 0.002 0.014 18 22 14%
D1 0.007 0.007 0.013 21 23 49%
D2 0.018 0.007 0.025 10 17 26%
D3 0.018 0.013 0.031 10 14 42%
D4 0.015 0.013 0.028 13 16 46%
D5 0.013 0.010 0.023 14 19 43%
D6 0.023 0.394 0.417 7 5 94%
D7 0.016 0.157 0.173 12 10 91%
D8 0.013 0.157 0.170 17 11 93%
Component
Name
Utility Risk Factor Rank
Asset City Evaluation
% Contribution by
Seismic
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Non-Seismic Rank
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Seismic Rank
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Revised Rank
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• Method to determine expected system functionality for selected earthquake scenarios
• Emergency planning, response , and restoration• Financial impacts – post event planning, insurance, bond
sales • Societal impacts – outage times, potential business
interruption of end users• Information needed to develop project justification using
benefit/cost analysis such as for triple-bottom-line analyses
• Use to justify rate increases to reduce seismic risk• Comprehensive revaluation of risk to reprioritize capital
improvements
Benefits of Implementation
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Questions ?