Segregation and Concentration of Poverty: The Role of Suburban Sprawl
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Segregation and Concentration of Poverty:
The Role of Suburban Sprawl
Paul A. Jargowsky
University of Texas at Dallas and
Centre de Sciences Humaines
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Basic Argument
Rapid suburban development (or “Sprawl”) in the US undermines the Central Cities
The development pattern increases economic segregation by concentrating the poor in the inner cities
It also helps to maintain high levels of racial segregation despite the elimination of de jure controls on black residential location
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Suburban Autonomy
US Suburbs are independent political units Little or no external control on growth and
development New suburbs in competition with each other,
as well as older suburbs and central city Incentives favor rapid growth geared towards
low-density, automobile-dependent neighborhoods serving high-income households, mostly white
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Washington DC Metro Area
Washington DC Counties
State
Washington DC
Maryland
Virginia
W. Virginia
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Washington DC Metropolitan Area: Population by State
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Popu
latio
n (M
illio
ns)
Wasington, DC Maryland Counties Virginia Counties W. Virginia Counties
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1900-1910Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1910-1920Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1920-1930Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1930-1940Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1940-1950Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1950-1960Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1960-1970Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1970-1980Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1980-1990Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Washington DC Metro Area, 1900-2000, Population Change by County
Percent Change, 1990-2000Decline
0 to 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 100%
More than 100%
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Metropolitan Areas with Central City Population Declines, 1990-2000
Metorpolitan Area OverallCentral Cities Suburbs
Philadelphia, PA/NJ 3.6 -4.5 7.8Wash., DC/MD/VA/WV 16.6 -0.4 20.8Detroit, MI 4.1 -6.1 8.2St. Louis, MO/IL 4.4 -9.6 8.9Baltimore, MD 7.2 -10.7 15.7Miami, FL 16.3 -0.2 21.3Cleveland, OH 2.2 -4.8 5.1Newark, NJ 6.1 -0.6 7.2Cincinnati, OH/KY/IN 7.9 -9.0 13.2Milwaukee, WI 4.8 -3.4 12.3New Orleans, LA 4.1 -2.1 8.2Hartford, CT 2.2 -9.7 4.4Rochester, NY 3.4 -5.1 5.7Louisville, KY/IN 8.1 -3.8 13.7Richmond, VA 15.1 -4.1 22.5Greenville, SC 15.9 -5.3 19.7Birmingham, AL 9.6 -8.7 18.1Albany, NY 1.6 -5.3 4.4Akron, OH 5.7 -2.7 10.9Gary, IN 4.4 -10.2 9.3
Growth Rate (%), 1990-2000
Of the 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas
• 30 had central city declines (for example, those to the left)
• 51 more had central city growth less than suburban growth
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Suburban Growth Is Not Neutral
Robert Park (1926): social distances are translated to physical distances
In US, class is more uncertain, increasing pressure to separate
Middle- and upper-income households have relocated further and further towards the periphery of urban space
Sharp contrast to the suburban development patterns of many other nations, e.g. India, France
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Percentage of Blacks and Poor Persons, 2000, in Suburbs by Growth Rate, 1990-2000
PopulationChange (%), Black
and 1990-2000 Black Poor Poor
Decline 22.4 14.2 6.10 to 25% 12.1 11.9 2.825 to 50% 8.5 9.7 1.550 to 100% 9.9 7.8 1.3100% or more 5.3 6.8 0.6
(Includes all suburban places in metropolitan areas.)
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Sprawl’s contribution to Concentration of Poverty
Rich move to the newest suburbsMiddle class moves to older suburbsPoor are left behind in low-density,
declining neighborhoodsThe social and economic decay of these
neighborhoods frightens the middle class, and creates a vicious cycle
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1970
Poverty Level: Detroit Neighborhoods, 1970-2000
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Poverty Level: Detroit Neighborhoods, 1970-2000
1980
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Poverty Level: Detroit Neighborhoods, 1970-2000
1990
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Poverty Level: Detroit Neighborhoods, 1970-2000
2000
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Detroit: the Bigger Picture
The large poverty area in 1970….
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Detroit: the Bigger Picture
…and in 1990
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Population Changes, 1970-1990: The MSA Hollows Out
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The Process Continues, 1990-2000
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Change in Poverty Rates, 1990-2000Detroit MSA
The central city did better, but the inner-ring suburbs did not.
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Dallas
1970-1990 1990-2000Paul A. Jargowsky, University of Texas at Dallas November 1, 2002
Change in Poverty Rates
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Cleveland
1970-1990 1990-2000
Change in Poverty Rates
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St. Louis
1970-1990 1990-2000
Change in Poverty Rates
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Modeling Sprawl’s Contribution to Racial Segregation
Identify all neighborhoods (census tracts) that grew between 1990 and 2000 (net new housing units)
Count all whites and blacks who moved into growing tracts
Ask the question: what if suburban development had been racially neutral?
To be racially neutral, such growth would have to be mixed income across broad areas.
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Two Methods to Model Sprawl’s Effect on Segregation
Fixed proportion method: assign 1990 movers to growing census tracts in proportion to their share of total movers into new housing.
Random moves method: randomly assign white and black movers to growing census tracts until all new slots are filled.
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0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Dallas, TX
Wash., DC/MD/VA/WV
Houston, TX
Atlanta, GA
Baltimore, MD
Los Angeles, CA
Philadelphia, PA/NJ
New York, NY
Chicago, IL
Detroit, MI
1990 2000 (Actual)2000 (Fixed) 2000 (Random)
Results for 10 Metropolitan Areas with Largest Black Population
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Implications Exclusivity: racial and economic exclusion
from growth zones Increases economic segregation Help to maintain high levels of racial segregation
Lower density: greater physical and social distance between groups
Political fragmentation: Balkanization of fiscal base Interacts with segregation to limit access to high-
quality education and other public amenities
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Policy Directions
Housing construction is highly regulated to protect health and safety
Need to also regulate the growth process Pace of peripheral growth should be tied to
metropolitan growth rate, so it does not undermine existing areas
Each suburban community must build a full range of housing types
Public transportation needed to improve access to geographically dispersed opportunities
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Conclusion
Housing construction is near permanent Once built, becomes the architecture of segregation Individual & local decisions have significant
externalities Regulation of suburban growth is needed to:
Break down racial and economic segregation Protect the long-term health of the community Promote the geographic access to public resources
necessary for equality of opportunity