SEEA & REDD+ - ESCAP...Aspects explored in this presentation 1. Contributions from SEEA land/forest...
Transcript of SEEA & REDD+ - ESCAP...Aspects explored in this presentation 1. Contributions from SEEA land/forest...
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SEEA & REDD+
A mutually beneficial collaboration?
Bruno Hugel
REDD+ global technical advisor
National REDD+ Strategies
25 September 2017
Aspects explored in this presentation
1. Contributions from SEEA land/forest accounts in integrating forest values into planning
2. Contributions from national REDD+ processes to land/forest accounts
Forests and Climate Change Land (incl. Forests) play important role reg. climate change, NDCs/SDGs, providing livelihoods etc…
… but threatened Bhutan,
Gabon, Suriname
Myanmar Indonesia Cameroon
India, Bangladesh
Stabilization China, Costa
Rica , Vietnam
Time
Forest cover
0 %
REDD+
ECONOMIC GROWTH
How can countries reduce their deforestation while developing??
REDD+ = • Approach to incentivize (financially) developing countries reducing forest cover loss
• Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• Relying particularly on Results-based payments through Green Climate Fund (GCF)
REDD+
National Strategy
or Action Plan
National Forest Monitoring
System
Safeguard Information
system
Forest Reference Level
• How much forest/carbon, where?
• Changes over time?
• How is it likely to evolve in a BAU scenario?
• What can we do to reduce deforestation AND contribute to development?
• (meta-strategy)
• How do we ensure that we minimize negative impacts / maximize positive?
4 elements required to access REDD+ Results-Based Payments
REDD+
National Strategy
or Action Plan
• What can we do to reduce deforestation AND contribute to development?
1. Contributions from SEEA to REDD+
National Forest Monitoring
System
Safeguard Information
system
Forest Reference Level
Drivers of Deforestation and forest Degradation
Source: Kissinger et al. (2012)
>70% forest degradation in Latin America & (sub)tropical Asia
fuel wood collection, charcoal production
and to a lesser extent livestock grazing in
Africa
2000-2010 relative importance (per region) of drivers of:
a. Deforestation:
AP
b. Degradation:
AP
• 70% increase in the demand for food by 2050 (FAO) Intensification + extension of surfaces (-> Need Optimisation!)
≈ 80% deforestation worldwide
Agriculture: • Commercial • Subsistence
Logging:
Cas
e S
tud
y: T
he
Ph
ilip
pin
es
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INFRASTRUCTURE EXTENSION
• Transport (roads,
rail) • Markets (public &
private) • Settlements (rural
& urban) • Public service
(water, electric) • Private company
(hydro, mining)
DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
• Natural increment • Migration • Population density • Population
distribution • Life cycle features
AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION
• Permanent
cultivation (commercial vs subsistence)
• Shifting cultivation
• Cattle ranching • Colonization (re-
settlement, transmigration)
WOOD EXTRACTION
• Commercial
(state-run) • Fuelwood (mainly
domestic use) • Polewood (mainly
domestic use) • Charcoal
production (domestic & industrial uses)
OTHER FACTORS
• Environmental factors (land characteristics – soil quality, topography)
• Biophysical drivers (triggers, e.g. fires, droughts, pests)
• Social drivers (conflict, social disorder, economic shocks)
ECONOMIC FACTORS
• Market growth and commercialization
• Economic structures • Urbanization &
industrialization • Special variables
(e.g. price increases)
TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS
• Agro-technical
change • Applications in the
wood sector • Agricultural
production factors
POLICY & INSTITUTIONAL
FACTORS
• Formal policies (e.g. on economic development)
• Policy climate (e.g. corruption)
• Property rights
CULTURAL FACTORS
• Public attitudes, values & beliefs (e.g. unconcern about forests, frontier mentality)
• Individual & household behavior (e.g. rent-seeking)
DIR
EC
T D
RIV
ER
S
INDIRECT DRIVERS
(Indirect vs. Direct) Drivers of DD
How can countries reduce their deforestation while developing??
Improving/optimizing: • Use of land/forests through: • Conservation of natural forests • Forest restauration
(natural/plantations)
Integrated Land Use Planning (LUP) Strategic Environment Assessment
Envt. & Social impact Assessment Greening agricultural subsidies Agri intensification (with LUP) etc
Through: Incentives Regulatory framework
(policies, monitoring, enforcement)
How to integrate the real (many) values of Forests into (land use) planning?
Better valuation of forest & contributions from forests: • to GDP • More widely (national balance sheet, …?) Consistent, systematic, nation-wide
Systematization of forest stats integration into national statistical framework: • to facilitate integrated planning(?) • …
So, SEEA-Land/Forest accounts & REDD+ ???
SEEA-Land/forest accounts helping?
E.g. Ethiopia - Contribution of forests to national income
• Forest contribution to GDP strongly undervalued: 12.86% of GDP (cash & in-kind / compatible with SNA):
• Non-market benefits (willingness to pay): 2.4B ETB
• Reported separately from GDP
o About half (“only”) from forest industries (undervalued by ≈38%) o Largest market income benefits: fuelwood & livestock fodder (62% of
forest use benefits together)
Forest valuation study - Results - Ethiopia
National Forest Monitoring
System
Forest Reference Level
• How much forest/carbon, where?
• Changes over time?
• How is it likely to evolve in a BAU scenario?
2. Contributions from national REDD+ processes to land/forest accounts (?)
REDD+
National Strategy
or Action Plan
Safeguard Information
system
Satellite Land Monitoring System
National Forest Inventory
GHG Inventory
NATIONAL FOREST MONITORING SYSTEM
MRV MONITORING
Web Interface
Community Monitoring
Other Forest-Related Monitoring
Systems
Forest area changes
Forest carbon stock changes
Forest-related GHG emissions
/ removals
OUTPUTS OUTPUTS
Monitor REDD+ outcomes
Local knowledge, data
& validation
Data sharing, transparency
Integrate with existing systems
National Forest Monitoring System
• How much forest/carbon, where? • Changes over time? Related GHG emissions / removals
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Conservation of forest carbon stock
(Includes Sustainable Management of Forests)
Land change matrix
Following IPCC guidance
Used to define Forest Reference Level submitted by countries to UNFCCC
(goes through Technical Assessment )
Results reported periodically through BUR (Biennial Update Reports)
= Base for results-based payments)
1 possible national interpretation of Deforestation, Degradation, Conservation, SMF, enhancement
Can GSOs use data from NFMS? Which definition of forest? Consistent with NSO data?
• UNFCCC vs others…
What mechanism to systematically integrate forest stats
into national statistics? How to link Min/Dept of Forestry & GSO?
Which datasets used for planning?
Which forest accounts to prioritize?
Use of “National wealth” rather than just GDP in planning?
Questions…
Comments/ answers most appreciated!
India
Landscape change + high emissions
Some States considering forests a net liability rather than
source of revenue
(no agriculture expansion & no logging…)
• ≈ 70 Mha forests - 24% national land
territory (FRA 2015)
Implementation of National Forest
Policy = Declining revenue from
forests in some states
E.g. 1986 ban on green felling by Supreme Court in many States
Reform of intergovernmental fiscal transfer system
• India’s Finance Commission recognized:
• Importance of Forests
• Perverse incentives that state & local governments had to undervalue & mismanage forests.
12-13th Commissions - grants allocated according to Forest cover & Forest quality
14th - Tax devolution - Forest Cover 1 of 5 criteria for tax revenue allocation from Central govt
to States Tax revenue ≈ $200 billion/year
Tax devolution to States ≈ $6 billion/year to States
based on forests
Amounts to $120 per hectare per year and is
competitive with agriculture production earnings
More RBF for forest conservation than any other country in the world (incl. Norway)
Is revenue neutral! (no cost for the central govt)