SEDS - Industrial Sector

Joseph M. Roop

Olga V. Livingston

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Industrial Sector in Context of SEDS

Macroeconomics

Biomass

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

Biofuels

Electricity

Hydrogen

Liquid Fuels

Buildings

Heavy Transportation

Industry

Light Vehicles

Macroeconomics Converted EnergyPrimary Energy End-Use

Industrial Sector Data Flow

Macroeconomics

Coal

Natural Gas

Liquid Fuels

Industry

Liquid Fuels

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil Price

Natural Gas Price

Emission Tax

Coal Price

Heavy Fuel Oil Price

Interest RateMacroeconomic

sExpenditures on new equipment

Coal Demand

Byproduct Gas Price

Natural Gas Demand

Heavy Fuel Oil Demand

CO2 Produced

Input Variables Output Variables

Manufacturing Growth Rate

Light Fuel Oil Price

Electricity Electricity Price

CO2 content of fuels

Light Fuel Oil Demand

Byproduct Gas Demand

Major Components of Industrial SectorProcesses

HVAC

Light

Steam

Compressors

Pumps Motors (shaft drive)

Weighted electricity cost per unit ofshaft drive requirement

DemandModule OP

DemandModule PH

DemandModule EC

DemandModule PR

DemandModule SH

DemandModule SC

DemandModule IND

Demand ModuleMOT5

Demand ModuleMOT6

DemandModule BL

DemandModule CO

Demand ModuleMOT1

Demand ModuleMOT2

Demand ModuleMOT3

Demand ModuleMOT4

Auxiliary servicerequirement

Shaft driverequirement

Subtotal fueldemanded

Subtotal electricitygeneration by cogenerators

Total electrgenerated

TOTAL FUELDEMANDED

Energy Demand

Demand ModuleDD

Demand ModuleFAN

Demand ModuleCON

Demand ModuleCPRS1

Demand ModuleCPRS2

Demand ModulePUMS1

Demand ModulePUMS2

Demand ModulePUMS3

Demand ModulePUMS4

Demand ModulePUMS5

Demand ModulePUMS6

Capitalexpenditures

CO2tracking

Efficiencymetric

Total output

Structural Overview

• 4 major end uses defined: Process heat, Electro-Chemical Processes, Refrigeration, Other process

• Variety of technologies serve end uses, multiple fuel options for each.

• Three categories of technologies for each end use:– Conventional technology– State-of-the-art – Advanced

• The state-of-the-art is competitive with the current average stock immediately; the advanced technology becomes available to compete with these two in 2025.

• End-uses dictate a set of auxiliary requirements – pumps, fans, compressors, conveyance, steam, etc. , all of which have drive requirements that are satisfied by motors of different size classes and efficiencies

Service Flow Models

Major Assumptions

• Capital costs, operating and maintenance costs, and performance characteristics for all the auxiliary equipment are drawn from the CIMS-US data base, and are currently being updated.

• The major end-use categories that were defined are gross representations of averages of equipment contained in the CIMS data base, but themselves have no real-world technology equivalent.

• Where special studies have been conducted, the estimated parameter for the logit function is used. Otherwise, the default value is based on rule-of-thumb that a 15% cost differential captures 80% of the market share for new equipment.

• This module is a representation of the U. S. Manufacturing sector, thus it is both national in scope and lacks both regional and industry detail.

• The model is currently incapable of describing the introduction of a major new industry specific technology, such as an innovative substitute for the electric-arc furnace used in steelmaking, or a energy-saving option for the firing of black liquor in the pulp industry.

Decision Flow in Industrial Sector

Industrial Output

Demand

Projection of Next Year’s

Demand

Installed Capacity

Main End-Use Process

Requirements

Levelized Cost of

Technology

Market Share

Retirements

New Capacity Additions

Auxiliary Process

Requirements

Motor Drive Requirements

FUEL Requirements

Energy Demand

Sources of Data

• Output, energy use, and technology stocks calibrated to Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) data for 2002, then simulated and benchmarked to 2005 Annual Energy Outlook.

• This version of the industrial sector of SEDS was constructed from an aggregate model of the U. S. Manufacturing sector developed as part of the CIMS-US model.

– Integrated economic model of the energy produced and used in the United States.

– Developed in conjunction with the Energy and Materials Research Group at Simon Fraser University, British Columbia, Canada.

• R&D impact on fuel intensity– Intensity improvements computed from ITP energy savings estimates. – Detailed spreadsheets with savings estimates for each fuel type – Developed as part of annual benefits estimation for ITP by Energetics, Inc.

Energy Demand, Baseline case

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 20490

100G

200G

300G

400G

500G

600G

700G

Time (Years)

TO

TA

L F

UE

L D

EM

AN

DE

D (

Wa

tts)

Energy Types (various)Coal (Bit, Low S) Heavy Fuel Oil (Low S) Light Fuel Oil (Low S) Natural Gas Electricity Byproduct gas

Energy Demand, High NG Price

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 20490

100G

200G

300G

400G

500G

600G

700G

Time (Years)

TO

TA

L F

UE

L D

EM

AN

DE

D (

Wa

tts

)

Energy Types (various)Coal (Bit, Low S) Heavy Fuel Oil (Low S) Light Fuel Oil (Low S) Natural Gas Electricity Byproduct gas

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 20490

100G

200G

300G

400G

500G

600G

700G

Time (Years)

TO

TA

L F

UE

L D

EM

AN

DE

D (

Wat

ts)

Energy Types (various)Coal (Bit, Low S) Heavy Fuel Oil (Low S) Light Fuel Oil (Low S) Natural Gas Electricity Byproduct gas

Energy Demand, Carbon Cap

Energy Demand, Target R&D

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 20490

100G

200G

300G

400G

500G

600G

700G

Time (Years)

TO

TAL

FU

EL

DE

MA

ND

ED

(W

atts

)

Energy Types (various)Coal (Bit, Low S) Heavy Fuel Oil (Low S) Light Fuel Oil (Low S) Natural Gas Electricity Byproduct gas

(stochastic run)

Issues and Future Work

• Break out industrial sector into manufacturing and non-manufacturing industry

• Incorporate additional detail for energy-intensive industries– Pulp and Paper– Primary Iron and Steel

• Remove the industries analyzed as part of the liquid fuels model