SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI -...

16
SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI Counting on positives NHAI finally seems to be firing on multiple fronts to make the Highway ecosystem more stakeholders/investor friendly. Slew of measures have been announced viz (1) Arbitration settlement though conciliation (2) FASTag implementation (3) Tweaking of the ToT model & (4) Improving visibility on awarding. These measures add to positives and will benefit Road EPC players with strong balance sheet. KEY DEVELOPMENTS Settlement of arbitration claims through conciliation: With arbitration claims of ~Rs 700bn and ~180 cases under hearing, NHAI is resorting to settlement of majority of the claims through conciliation. NHAI is expected to reduce its liabilities through this process as it will ensure faster disbursement of settlement proceeds to developers. This is a big positive for the sector as developers can expect faster resolution of arbitration cases eliminating the need for developers/NHAI to challenge awards by lower courts in higher courts, leading to elongated timelines for reaching settlement in such cases. Innovative structures are also being worked out with HCC initiating a carve-out for around Rs 21bn of debt with arbitration awards claims as security. These shall be moved to an SPV with third party ownership. Bidding activity picking up, listed developers on wait and watch mode: Historical trends suggest NHAI ordering to be heavily loaded during Jan-Mar period. NHAI has already awarded Rs 202bn worth of projects during 9MFY20. Bid pipeline looks strong with Rs 361bn of projects lined up for grabs until Feb-20. Further, Mar-20 bid pipe is awaited. Unlisted players have taken lion share of 9MFY20 NHAI awards. Chinese player Jiangxi has entered the fray and won about Rs 20bn of awards and is L1 in Rs 17.2bn. Listed bidders have adopted watch and watch mode and are not giving into aggressive bidding. NHAI toll collection hits record high: NHAI recorded its highest daily toll collection number of Rs 862mn in January. Though implementation of FASTag technology has resulted in fixing toll leakages (especially on NHAI operated stretches), increase in traffic volume during the festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon impact) is also a factor resulting in high toll collection numbers. Our Industry channel checks suggest about 5-8% normalized increase in NH daily toll collections post FASTag. NHAI to hit peak debt of Rs 5.4tn by FY25 (end of BM1), net D/E 1.08x: We forecast NHAI debt to peak at Rs 5.4tn by completion of Bharat Mala - 1. Increase in toll revenue, ToT monetization, Toll securitization and GOI funding support will provide sufficient cash flows for debt servicing. STANCE Road EPC players’ fortunes are linked to NHAI ordering. High land acquisition cost (~30% of Total NH cost) has led to ballooning of NHAI debt and concerns on sustainable ordering. GOI commitment to Infra build-out in India as envisioned in the NIP program seems positive but lacks financial detailing (Union Budget 2020 may lend some visibility). On the positives, NHAI ordering has resumed. Banking environment is improving with no shortage of capital for companies with strong balance sheet. HAM monetization has picked up and most of projects have received ‘Appointed Date’. Interest rate has been supportive. We maintain our positive stance on the sector going into FY21E. We believe peak ordering is still 2yrs away and P/E valuation is supportive (average peer P/E 8x FY21E EPS a 50% discount to long term averages). Top Picks: KNR, PNC, HG Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. In building segment we prefer Capacite and Ahluwalia Contracts. NHAI Ordering NHAI Ordering Till FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Length (km) 7,494 4,000 5,200 5,200 Rs bn 1,349 743 962 962 NHAI Capital Structure (Rs tn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Equity 1.93 2.23 2.64 3.16 Debt 1.79 2.39 3.02 3.97 D/E 0.93 1.07 1.15 1.25 NHAI-Receipts (Estimated) (Rs bn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Cess 161 161 177 195 Toll 92 95 129 179 ToT - 50 100 150 Total 253 306 406 523 Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA [email protected] +91-22-6171-7317 Shrey Pujari [email protected] +91-22-6639-3035 Rohan Rustagi [email protected] +91-22-3021-2079 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Transcript of SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI -...

Page 1: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020

NHAI

Counting on positivesNHAI finally seems to be firing on multiple fronts to make the Highway ecosystem more stakeholders/investor friendly. Slew of measures have been announced viz (1) Arbitration settlement though conciliation (2) FASTag implementation (3) Tweaking of the ToT model & (4) Improving visibility on awarding. These measures add to positives and will benefit Road EPC players with strong balance sheet.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Settlement of arbitration claims through conciliation: With arbitration claims of ~Rs 700bn and ~180 cases under hearing, NHAI is resorting to settlement of majority of the claims through conciliation. NHAI is expected to reduce its liabilities through this process as it will ensure faster disbursement of settlement proceeds to developers. This is a big positive for the sector as developers can expect faster resolution of arbitration cases eliminating the need for developers/NHAI to challenge awards by lower courts in higher courts, leading to elongated timelines for reaching settlement in such cases. Innovative structures are also being worked out with HCC initiating a carve-out for around Rs 21bn of debt with arbitration awards claims as security. These shall be moved to an SPV with third party ownership.

Bidding activity picking up, listed developers on wait and watch mode: Historical trends suggest NHAI ordering to be heavily loaded during Jan-Mar period. NHAI has already awarded Rs 202bn worth of projects during 9MFY20. Bid pipeline looks strong with Rs 361bn of projects lined up for grabs until Feb-20. Further, Mar-20 bid pipe is awaited. Unlisted players have taken lion share of 9MFY20 NHAI awards. Chinese player Jiangxi has entered the fray and won about Rs 20bn of awards and is L1 in Rs 17.2bn. Listed bidders have adopted watch and watch mode and are not giving into aggressive bidding.

NHAI toll collection hits record high: NHAI recorded its highest daily toll collection number of Rs 862mn in January. Though implementation of FASTag technology has resulted in fixing toll leakages (especially on NHAI operated stretches), increase in traffic volume during the festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon impact) is also a factor resulting in high toll collection numbers. Our Industry channel checks suggest about 5-8% normalized increase in NH daily toll collections post FASTag.

NHAI to hit peak debt of Rs 5.4tn by FY25 (end of BM1), net D/E 1.08x: We forecast NHAI debt to peak at Rs 5.4tn by completion of Bharat Mala - 1. Increase in toll revenue, ToT monetization, Toll securitization and GOI funding support will provide sufficient cash flows for debt servicing.

STANCE Road EPC players’ fortunes are linked to NHAI ordering. High land acquisition cost (~30% of Total NH cost) has led to ballooning of NHAI debt and concerns on sustainable ordering. GOI commitment to Infra build-out in India as envisioned in the NIP program seems positive but lacks financial detailing (Union Budget 2020 may lend some visibility). On the positives, NHAI ordering has resumed. Banking environment is improving with no shortage of capital for companies with strong balance sheet. HAM monetization has picked up and most of projects have received ‘Appointed Date’. Interest rate has been supportive. We maintain our positive stance on the sector going into FY21E. We believe peak ordering is still 2yrs away and P/E valuation is supportive (average peer P/E 8x FY21E EPS a 50% discount to long term averages). Top Picks: KNR, PNC, HG Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. In building segment we prefer Capacite and Ahluwalia Contracts.

NHAI Ordering NHAI Ordering Till FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Length (km) 7,494 4,000 5,200 5,200

Rs bn 1,349 743 962 962

NHAI Capital Structure (Rs tn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Equity 1.93 2.23 2.64 3.16

Debt 1.79 2.39 3.02 3.97

D/E 0.93 1.07 1.15 1.25

NHAI-Receipts (Estimated) (Rs bn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Cess 161 161 177 195

Toll 92 95 129 179

ToT - 50 100 150

Total 253 306 406 523

Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA [email protected] +91-22-6171-7317

Shrey Pujari [email protected] +91-22-6639-3035

Rohan Rustagi [email protected] +91-22-3021-2079 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Page 2: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

Arbitration awards pending for major developers

Arbitration in favour (Rs bn) Current Status

KNR Constructions 7.6

NHAI has opted to contest the award of these claims in higher courts. Difficulty in securing Bank Guarantees for 75% claim amount as banks insist on 100% cash margin

GR Infra 1.3 Received arbitration award in its favour but has only received Rs 500mn till date. Balance Rs 759mn arbitration award is yet to be paid by NHAI

Gayatri Projects 5.0 NHAI has opted to contest the award of these claims in higher courts

Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd/ JMC Projects 1.5 NHAI has opted to contest the award of these claims in higher

courts

Ashoka Buildcon 6.0

NHAI has opted to contest the award of these claims in higher courts. The company has Rs 11bn of claims under consideration at arbitration panel level the outcome of which is yet to be decided. The company is also under the process of filing additional claims of Rs 8bn

Sadbhav Engineering 3.7

NHAI has opted to contest the award of these claims in higher courts. Difficulty in securing Bank Guarantees for 75% claim amount as banks insist on 100% cash margin. The company has Rs 5bn of claims under consideration the outcome of which is yet to be decided. The company also has Rs 2bn stuck under change of scope clause

Gammon Infra 3.0 The company has secured arbitration award in its favour but is yet to receive the proceeds from NHAI

Simplex Infra 2.0 The company has secured arbitration award in its favour Total 30.1 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

With NHAI emphasizing on settlement of majority of the claims through conciliation, this will come as a major relief to the sector as the developers can expect faster receipt of proceeds against the arbitration claims. This is expected to improve the liquidity across the sector as well as for financial institutions as they are expected to receive significant proceeds towards repayment of debt

Page | 2

Page 3: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

Bidding Activity During 9MFY20 (Rs bn)

Contractors EPC HAM Item Rate Grand Total

GR Infra Projects Ltd. 43.9 - - 43.9 KCC Buildcon Pvt. Ltd. 22.5 - - 22.5 Gawar Construction Ltd. 12.4 - 9.5 21.9 Jiangxi Construction Engineering (Group) Co. Ltd. 20.2 - - 20.2 Centrodorstroy India Pvt. Ltd 18.8 - - 18.8 J.Kumar Infraprojects Ltd. 15.4 - - 15.4 Krishna Constructions 14.7 - - 14.7 Others 8.9 - - 8.9 Ashoka Concessions Limited - 7.4 - 7.4 VRC Constructions (India) Pvt. Ltd. 7.1 - - 7.1 S.P.K. and Co. - - 5.2 5.2 NKC Projects Private Ltd. 4.5 - - 4.5 EKK Infrastructure Limited - - 3.9 3.9 VRC Construction (India) Pvt. Ltd. - Varindera Construction Ltd. - S&P Infrastructure Developers Pvt Ltd (JV) 3.5 - - 3.5

SD Infra - - 1.7 1.7 BP Sangle Constructions 1.3 - - 1.3 Jandu Construction Company 0.6 - - 0.6 Grand Total 173.9 7.4 20.2 201.5 Source: NHAI, HDFC sec Inst Research Jiangxi Construction Engineering, a Chinese

developer, has emerged as the 3rd largest bidder for NHAI EPC projects awarded during FYTD20. It has also secured L1 position in 2 EPC orders worth Rs 17.2bn awarded recently during 4QFY20, in a JV with MKC Infra, taking the total orders secured to Rs 37.3bn. Jiangxi secured the position by bidding at a discount of ~2.5% to NHAI cost vs bids placed at a premium by other developers. Majority of the orders are secured by the unlisted players in the road segment, with GR Infra securing ~22% of the orders during 9MFY20.

Jiangxi Indian partner MKC Infra abridged financials

Source: Brickworks Ratings, HDFC sec Inst Research

Rs mn FY18 FY19 Revenue 3,590 5,307 EBITDA 289 366 PAT 175 234 Networth 760 994 Total Debt/NW 0.3 0.3 Current Ratio 1.3 1.4

During 9MFY20, NHAI awarded projects of ~Rs 201bn with ~86% of the projects awarded through the EPC mode (with balance projects awarded through Item Rate Mode and HAM) Awarding wins for the period was driven by unlisted players with GR Infra leading the charts having secured 22% of the total projects awarded Chinese player Jiangxi has won projects worth Rs 20.2bn and is L1 in Rs 17.2bn in 4QFY20. This will be big Chinese foray in Indian NH construction we will wait to see if it impact local players bid pattern J Kumar and Ashoka Buildcon secured 6th/9th position respectively having secured orders worth Rs 15.4bn/7.4bn respectively Jiangxi Construction has also bid for EPC packages on Delhi- Vadodara stretch (packages 29,30 and 31) in a JV with MKC Infrastructure, which is a Gujarat based contractor.

Page | 3

Page 4: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

4QFY20 Expected to be an ‘Order-heavy’ Quarter Though 9MFY20 has seen limited activity on the

ordering front, 4QFY20 is expected to be an ‘order-heavy’ quarter for NHAI. NHAI has a bid pipeline of ~Rs 361bn (1,215km) up to Feb 2020 with ~55% of the projects to be awarded through the EPC mode.

The southern states are expected to witness significant activity with ~41% of the projects by BPC and ~51% of the projects by length expected

to be awarded in the region. During 9MFY20, NHAI awarded road projects for ~1,120km majority of which were through EPC mode (one project was awarded through HAM). Thus with an initial bid pipeline of 1,215km during 4QFY20, we expect heightened awarding activity with the aim of closing in on its target of ~4,500km of awarding during FY20.

Bid Pipeline for 4QFY20 (declared till date)

State NHAI BPC

(Rs bn) Length (km) Total NHAI BPC (Rs bn)

Total Length (km)

Percentage of Total (%)

Likely developer

participation EPC HAM EPC HAM BPC Length Central 13 16 45 110 29 155 8% 13%

Chhattisgarh 6 39 6 39 2% 3% DBL MP 13 10 45 70 23 115 6% 9% DBL

North 90 13 128 97 103 225 29% 19% Delhi 45 - 53 45 53 12% 4% HG Infra Haryana 11 - 37 11 37 3% 3% HG Infra Jharkhand 18 13 22 97 31 119 9% 10% PNC

UP 17 - 16 17 16 5% 1% PNC, DBL, Ashoka

South 14 135 113 508 149 621 41% 51% Karnataka 9 28 58 126 37 184 10% 15% KNR, Ashoka,

DBL Kerala 1 56 2 150 57 153 16% 13% KNR Tamil Nadu 5 22 54 88 27 142 8% 12% KNR

Telangana 28 142 28 142 8% 12% KNR,Ashoka, DBL

West 80 - 215 80 215 22% 18% Gujarat 24 - 63 24 63 7% 5% DBL, Ashoka Rajasthan 56 - 151 56 151 16% 12% DBL, Ashoka

Grand Total 197 164 501 714 361 1,215 Source: NHAI, HDFC sec Inst Research

Southern region dominates the bid pipeline (declared till date) with ~48% of orders by length and ~40% of orders by NHAI BPC constituted by the four southern states With an initial bid pipeline of 1,215km during 4QFY20, we expect heightened awarding activity with the aim of achieving its target of ~4,500km of project awarding during FY20 NHAI awarding is traditionally back-ended as has been witnessed during FY18 and FY19, with ~70% of the awarding activity taking place in the 4th quarter

Page | 4

Page 5: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

NHAI sees record high average daily toll collection in January 2020 NHAI has stated that its average daily toll collection has touched a record high of Rs 862mn/day. This collection number takes into account collections from toll plaza’s from both BOT Toll projects and those stretches under NHAI operations. This can be attributed to the following factors:

FASTags: Mandatory implementation of FASTag has aided this to some extent. FASTag was implemented across all NH stretches starting December 15, 2019. This has resulted in reduction of leakage in toll collection to a large extent. Through our channel checks, we observed that though toll leakage in privately operated toll plazas wasn’t as rampant, leakage in toll collection was as high as 20% in certain NHAI operated stretches. With full implementation of FASTag technology starting January 15, 2020 toll leakages are expected to reduce further. This is a huge positive for NHAI as this will help it ascertain the true value

of the project stretch and hence it stands to receive better valuation for its stretches through ToT asset monetization.

Seasonality factor: On a broad level, toll collections show an improvement in the 2nd half of the year after the conclusion of monsoon season. Volume-led growth during the festive season in the early parts of January is another factor which may have contributed to average daily toll collections hitting above mentioned levels. Considering a 10% factor for seasonality as per our channel checks, the normalized average toll collection can be assumed to be Rs 783mn. Also, as per our channel checks, toll collections were muted during September due to extended monsoon. Thus due to base-effect the toll collections appear to have increased on a percentage basis during September to December period.

Year-wise trend for average daily toll collection (Rs mn) Daily toll collection (Rs mn) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 BOT Toll* 187.4 218.9 274.9 338.3 345.4 422.2 474.1 EPC^ 65.2 93.1 113.3 134.3 146.2 179.2 194.2 Total 252.7 312.0 388.2 472.6 491.6 601.3 668.4 YoY Growth (%) 31.1 23.5 24.4 21.7 4.0 22.3 11.2 Source: NHAI, HDFC sec Inst Research, *Project stretches under PPP model, ^Stretches under NHAI Toll-able length Annual escalation in toll rates also contributes to

the increase in toll collection. There has been a ~4% revision in toll rate in FY20 owing to a 3% flat escalation for every year of operation since the base year (FY07-08) plus 40% of the WPI increase

since the base year. Adjusting for seasonal anomalies, toll hikes and new length addition, we assess 5-8% improvement in NHAI toll collection post the FASTag implementation

The record high average daily toll collection can be attributed to factor such as (1) Mandatory implementation of FASTag, which has plugged leakages in toll to some extent (primarily on NHAI operated projects based on our channel checks), (2) Volume based growth during the festive season after muted toll collections in the previous quarter owing to delayed monsoon retreat and (3) Toll revision and new toll length addition

Page | 5

Page 6: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

NHAI financial position at the end of Bharatmala Implementation period (Rs bn) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E Total Equity 1,929 2,234 2,640 3,164 3,732 4,363 5,062 Total Borrowings 1,794 2,394 3,024 3,969 4,809 5,159 5,459 D/E 0.93 1.07 1.15 1.25 1.29 1.18 1.08 Outflow towards implementation activities 851 1,041 1,465 1,370 1,096 1,033 Source: NHAI, HDFC sec Inst Research Year-wise capital inflow and outflow towards Bharatmala Phase-1 Implementation* (Rs bn) FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E

Cash Inflow Cess Fund 161 177 195 214 236 259 Revenue from tolls 95 129 179 254 295 340 Monetization through TOT/Securitization 50 100 150 100 100 100 IEBR (Net) (External borrowings and repayments) 600 630 945 840 350 300 Total Capital Inflow 906 1,036 1,468 1,408 981 999 Interest Income and Capital Reserve 32 31 35 33 26 24 Total Cash Inflow 938 1,067 1,503 1,440 1,007 1,023 Cash Outflow - - - - - - Construction and Annuity Outlay 567 628 1,125 1,107 796 714 Land Acquisition 158 250 130 - - - Interest and other expenditure on Bond 126 163 210 263 299 319 Total Cash Outflow towards BM-1 851 1,041 1,465 1,370 1,096 1,033 Other Expenses 36 16 85 23 (54) (23) Total Cash Outflow 887 1,057 1,550 1,394 1,042 1,010 Net Cash Surplus/Deficit 50 10 (47) 46 (35) 13 Closing Cash Position 61 71 24 70 36 49 Source: NHAI, HDFC sec Inst Research, assuming Bharatmala Phase-1 implementation till FY25

NHAI’s external borrowing is expected to peak to Rs 5.4tn by the end of Bharatmala Implementation period in FY25. Outflow towards implementation activities includes construction outlay towards EPC and HAM projects, annuity payments towards HAM projects entering commercial operations, interest and other expenditure on bonds and cost towards acquisition of balance land for Bharatmala Phase-1. For awarding balance projects, we have assumed a 50/50 breakup between EPC and HAM projects for estimating the construction outlay NHAI equity inflow comprise of budgetary allocation through Cess Fund, revenue from toll collection (toll plough-back) and monetization of assets through TOT / Securitization. The allocation from Cess Fund is assumed to increase by 10% annually while Rs 600bn is to be raised through asset monetization over FY20-25. Revenue from toll collections is estimated assuming incremental addition to the toll-able length with HAM and EPC projects entering into commercial operation Page | 6

Page 7: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

National Infrastructure Pipeline- Road Sector Plan

GoI has constituted a task force for implementation of the National Infrastructure Pipeline for FY19-25 targeting Rs 102tn of investment in the Infrastructure space over the next five years.

The role of the task force is to (1) Identify

technically feasible and financially/ economically viable infrastructure projects that can be initiated in fiscals 2020 to 2025 (2)Estimate annual infrastructure investment/capital costs (3)Identifying appropriate sources of financing (4)Project monitoring to minimize time and cost overrun.

The government plans to front-end the investment phasing with the expectation that tangible outputs are will be visible by the end of the five year implementation period. Current Status of the road sector: The total length

of NHs in India stands at ~132,000km of which expressways constitute ~1,600km. However, private sector participation continues to be low at ~15% due to stressed balance sheet of developers owin g to legacy issues with BOT Toll and implementation of Hybrid Annuity Mode as a result, requiring lower private investment vs earlier models.

Planned Investment in Road Sector (Rs bn)* Vision Going Forward: Over the next 5 years, the govt has

planned to expand the NH network by ~60,000km with about 20,000km in major economic corridors, strategic areas and major tourist destinations. The government expects increased private sector participation at ~39%. Going forward, asset aggregators/PE investors are expected to maintain asset ownership, signaling NHAIs intentions of scaling up of asset monetization plans. Of the total planned investments, ~ 34% of the projects are under implementation, ~27% of the projects are under development, ~ 36% of the projects are under conceptual stage and the balance projects are unclassified.

Source: NHAI, NIP Report of the task force *Assuming same annual investment phasing by implementation agencies over FY20-25

1.2 1.30.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8

1.21.3 1.2

0.9 0.81.2

1.21.4

1.3

0.9 0.9

1.2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

FY18 FY19 FY20* FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

Centre State Private

~20% of the planned investments under National Infrastructure Pipeline are targeted towards the road sector Under NIP, the NH network is planned to be expanded by ~60,000km with ~20,000km in major economic corridors, strategic areas and tourist destinations

Page | 7

Page 8: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

Peer Group Valuation Summary (Core EPC Operations)

COMPANY MCap

(Rs bn)

CMP (Rs) RECO TP

(Rs)

Adj. EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)

FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E

Dilip Buildcon 55.4 405 BUY 717 55.6 45.0 48.0 4.8 5.9 5.5 4.5 3.9 3.5 26.9 17.5 15.8

PNC Infratech 50.4 197 BUY 340 9.1 12.4 15.9 15.6 11.5 9.0 8.6 5.1 5.0 11.9 15.3 15.4

KNR Constructions 42.9 305 BUY 378 12.3 14.1 17.7 19.9 17.4 13.9 8.7 7.7 6.3 13.5 13.0 13.7

NCC 33.5 56 BUY 111 10.4 5.6 6.9 4.6 8.5 7.0 3.2 4.2 3.2 13.8 6.9 7.8

Ashoka Buildcon 32.1 114 BUY 206 11.5 9.5 11.2 3.7 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.2 15.5 12.6 13.2 Sadbhav Engineering 21.8 127 BUY 241 10.9 11.0 13.2 7.7 7.6 6.3 6.9 4.9 4.5 9.2 8.6 9.4

Ahluwalia Contracts 21.4 320 BUY 388 17.5 18.3 25.0 17.5 16.8 12.3 8.8 8.5 6.2 17.3 15.4 18.0

PSP Projects 18.6 518 NEU 590 25.1 33.1 39.4 20.7 15.7 13.2 11.2 9.6 7.9 26.8 28.3 26.9

HG Infra 16.6 254 BUY 441 19.0 26.4 33.2 11.2 8.0 6.4 5.7 4.7 3.8 20.6 22.8 22.7

JMC Projects 16.5 98 BUY 175 8.5 9.7 10.9 8.7 7.5 6.7 5.7 4.6 3.9 16.6 16.4 15.8 Capacite Infraprojects 13.2 194 BUY 360 14.1 15.8 27.2 17.1 11.5 6.7 5.3 4.3 3.2 12.0 12.0 17.8

JKIL 10.4 153 BUY 276 23.4 27.8 34.5 6.5 5.5 4.4 3.8 3.1 2.7 11.1 12.0 13.4

ITD Cementation 10.2 59 BUY 83 3.2 4.8 6.9 18.4 12.4 8.5 5.8 4.8 4.2 6.8 7.7 10.3

Average 12.0 10.2 8.0 6.3 5.3 4.4 15.5 14.5 15.4 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

We summarize the valuations of the core EPC operations of our coverage universe and excluding the value of the asset portfolio, land and any other investment

Page | 8

Page 9: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

Annexure: Bid Pipeline for 4QFY20 (declared till date) S.

No. Projects Bid Opening Date Lanes Mode NHAI

BPC Length State Region

1

RFP for Construction of Eight Lane access-controlled Expressway carriageway from Kandarwasa village to Bawadi village (near Shivgarh) of Ratlam district section of Delhi- Vadodara Greenfield Alignment (NH-148-N) under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Madhya Pradesh on EPC mode

07/01/2020 8 EPC 10 25 MP Central

2

RFP for 4-lane with paved shoulder configuration of Pathrapali-Kathghora (Pkg. II) of Bilaspur-Kathghora section of NH-111 (New NH-130) in the State of Chhattisgarh under Bharatmala on Hybrid Annuity Mode.

08/01/2020 4 HAM 6 39 Chhattisgarh Central

3 Four laning of Katni-Bypass of National Highway – 7 (old) in the State of Madhya Pradesh on EPC Mode

15/01/2020 4 EPC 2 20 MP Central

4

Construction of Eight Lane access-controlled expressway from junction with SH-175 near Baletiya village of Panchmahal district to junction with SH-63 near Pratap Nagar village of Vadodara district section of Delhi – Vadodara Greenfield Alignment (NH-148N) on EPC Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Gujarat.

16/01/2020 8 EPC 8 22 Gujarat West

5

Construction of Eight Lane access-controlled expressway starting from Junction with NH-47 near Bhamaiya village and ending at Junction with SH-175 in Baletiya village in Panchmahal district section of Delhi – Vadodara Greenfield Alignment (NH-148N) on EPC MODE under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Gujarat

16/01/2020 8 EPC 8 23 Gujarat West

6

Construction of Eight Lane access-controlled expressway starting from junction with SH-63 near Pratap Nagar village and ending at junction with NE-1 near Dodka village of Vadodara District section of Delhi – Vadodara Greenfield Alignment (NH-148N) on EPC Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Gujarat.

16/01/2020 8 EPC 8 19 Gujarat West

Page | 9

Page 10: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

S. No. Projects Bid Opening

Date Lanes Mode NHAI BPC Length State Region

7

RFP for Construction of Eight Lane Carriageway starting near Major Bridge on Mej River to Junction with SH-37A section of Delhi – Vadodara Access Controlled Green field Alignment (NH-148N) on EPC Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Rajasthan.

21/01/2020 8 EPC 11 28 Rajasthan West

8

RFP for Construction of Eight Lane Carriageway starting from Major bridge over Takli river near Nayagaon Jageer village to Rajasthan/MP Border section of Delhi - Vadodara Access Controlled Green field Alignment (NH-148N) under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Rajasthan on EPC mode

21/01/2020 8 EPC 7 25 Rajasthan West

9

Construction of Eight Lane Carriageway starting near Junction with NH-76 to Junction with NH-12 near village Ummedpura section of Delhi - Vadodara Access Controlled Green field Alignment (NH-148N) under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Rajasthan on EPC Mode

21/01/2020 8 EPC 8 31 Rajasthan West

10

Construction of Eight Lane access controlled Expressway from Hardeoganj village near Indergarh to Major Bridge on Mej river section of Delhi - Vadodara Green field Alignment (NH-148N) under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Rajasthan on EPC Mode

21/01/2020 8 EPC 12 12 Rajasthan West

11

Construction of Eight Lane Carriageway start at the end approach of interchange on NH-116 at village Mui and end at Hardevganj village near Indergarh section of Delhi - Vadodara Access Controlled Green field Alignment (NH-148N) under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Rajasthan on EPC mode

21/01/2020 8 EPC 9 26 Rajasthan West

12

Construction of Eight Lane access controlled Expressway starting near Junction with SH-37A to Junction with NH-76 section of Delhi - Vadodara Green field Alignment (NH-148N) on EPC Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Rajasthan

21/01/2020 8 EPC 9 29 Rajasthan West

Page | 10

Page 11: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

S.

No. Projects Bid Opening Date Lanes Mode NHAI

BPC Length State Region

13

Construction of Additional Structures in Tamil Nadu / Kerala Border – Kanyakumari section of NH-47 in the state of Tamil Nadu through an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) Contract.

31/01/2020 4 EPC 5 54 Tamil Nadu South

14

Development of six – lane access controlled in Uttar Pradesh portion of Delhi – Saharanpur Highway from Delhi/UP Border to EPE Junction in the State of Uttar Pradesh on EPC mode under Economic Corridor in phase-1 of Bharatmala Pariyojana

31/01/2020 6 EPC 17 16 UP North

15

Development of six – lane access controlled in Delhi portion of Delhi – Saharanpur Highway from Akshardham NH-9 (Old NH-24)Junction to Delhi/UP border in the State of Delhi on EPC mode under Economic Corridor in phase-1 of Bharatmala Pariyojana

31/01/2020 6 EPC 11 15 Delhi North

16

4 laning of Harda -Betul Section of National Highway(NH-47) from Chicholi to Betul under BHARATMALA Pariyojana Economic Corridor (Phase- I) in the State of Madhya Pradesh on Hybrid Annuity Mode.

04/02/2020 4 HAM 5 40 MP Central

17 4-laning of Harda to Temagaon (Harda-Betul Pkg-I) on Hybrid Annuity Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojna Phase-I.

04/02/2020 4 HAM 5 30 MP Central

18

Six Laning of Thalapady to Chengala section of NH-17 (New NH-66) in the State of Kerala on Hybrid annuity Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojna in the category of residual works under NHDP

06/02/2020 6 HAM 13 39 Kerala South

19

Six Laning of Chengala to Neeleshwaram section of NH-17 (New NH-66) in the State of Kerala on Hybrid Annuity Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojna in the category of residual works under NHDP

06/02/2020 6 HAM 12 37 Kerala South

Page | 11

Page 12: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

S. No. Projects Bid Opening

Date Lanes Mode NHAI BPC Length State Region

20

Construction of 4 lane Access Controlled Greenfield Highway Section of Khammam-Devarapalle National Highway from Ramanujavaram village to Telangana/AP Border under Inter Corridor Route under Bharatmala Pariyojana, Phase-I on Hybrid Annuity mode in the State of Telangana

06/02/2020 4 HAM 9 45 Telangana South

21

Construction of 4 lane Access Controlled Greenfield Highway Section of Khammam-Devarapalle National Highway from Thallampadu village to Ramanujavaram village under Inter Corridor Route under Bharatmala Phase-I on Hybrid Annuity mode in the state of Telangana

06/02/2020 4 HAM 10 45 Telangana South

22

RFP for Four laning of NH-363 from Repallewada to Telangana/Maharashtra Border in the State of Telangana under NH (O) on Hybrid Annuity Mode.

07/02/2020 4 HAM 9 53 Telangana South

23

Construction of 6 lane NH-344N - Package 5 NH 344 M, Delhi till Bahadurgarh bypass of NH-10 near Bahadurgarh in Haryana as spur of NH-344M on EPC mode

11/02/2020 6 EPC 3 7 Haryana North

24

Construction of 4 lane NH-344P - Package 4 from Bawana Industrial Area, Delhi till Sonipat bypass of NH-352A at Village Barwasani, Sonipat in Haryana as spur of NH-344M on EPC mode

11/02/2020 4 EPC 7 30 Haryana North

25 Construction of 6 lane NH-344M - Package 3 From Nangloi Najafgarh Roadto Dwarka Sector 24 Road in State of Delhi on EPC mode.

11/02/2020 6 EPC 7 10 Delhi North

26 Construction of 6 lane NH-344M - Package 2 From Karala-Kanjhawala Road to Nangloi Najafgarh Road in State of Delhi on EPC mode.

11/02/2020 6 EPC 11 13 Delhi North

27 Construction of 6 lane NH-344M - Package 1From NH 1 to Karala-Kanjhawala Road in State of Delhi on EPC mode

11/02/2020 6 EPC 16 15 Delhi North

Page | 12

Page 13: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

S. No. Projects Bid Opening

Date Lanes Mode NHAI BPC Length State Region

28

Four laning of Honnavar Port Connectivity road from Kasarkod side of Honnavar Port to NH-66 connecting Honnavar Port with NH-66 and to improve NH-66 to integrate port connectivity road on EPC mode under Bharatmala Phase-I in the State of Karnataka

12/02/2020 4 EPC 1 3 Karnataka South

29 Six Laning of Neeleshwaram to Thaliparambha section of NH 17 in the State of Kerala on Hybrid annuity Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojana

18/02/2020 6 HAM 16 41 Kerala South

30 4-laning of Palma – Gumla Section of NH-23 in the State of Jharkhand on Hybrid Annuity Mode. 18/02/2020 4 HAM 8 63 Jharkhand North

31

Six Laning of Thaliparambha- Muzhapilangad section of NH-17 (New NH-66) in the State of Kerala on Hybrid annuity Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojana

18/02/2020 6 HAM 15 33 Kerala South

32

Construction of four lane Minor Bridge (Paloli Palam), Major Bridge (Moorad) & allied works like 4lane Main Carriageway with Service Road for the section of NH-17 (New NH-66) under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Kerala on EPC mode

19/02/2020 4 EPC 1 2 Kerala South

33

Four Laning of Tumkur-Shivamogga, Banwara to Bettadahalli section of NH-206 in the State of Karnataka, on Hybrid Annuity Mode under Bharatmala Priyojana (Package – III)

24/02/2020 4 HAM 9 46 Karnataka South

34 4 laning of NH-98 in the State of Jharkhand under Hybrid Annuity Mode 25/02/2020 4 HAM 5 34 Jharkhand North

35

4 laning of Channarayanpatna Bypass and providing, Grade Separator Structures, Service Road and other safety measures in Devihalli to Channarayanpatna section of NH-75 (old NH-48), on EPC Basis in the State of Karnataka on EPC Mode

25/02/2020 4 EPC 4 9 Karnataka South

36

Construction of new link (NH-133B) from of Sahibganj Bypass in Jharkhand to Manihari Bypass and construction of Manihari Bypass to Narenpur of NH-131A in Bihar including Ganga Bridge to 4 lane standard on EPC mode.

25/02/2020 4 EPC 18 22 Bihar North

Page | 13

Page 14: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

S.

No. Projects Bid Opening Date Lanes Mode NHAI

BPC Length State Region

37

Two Laning with paved shoulder of Aurad - Bidar Section of NH-161A on EPC Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojna in the state of Karnataka On Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) Mode

03/03/2020 2 EPC 3 46 Karnataka South

38

4 laning of Dodaballapur Bypass to Hoskote section of NH-648 (Old NH-207) on Hybrid Annuity Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojna, in the state of Karnataka (Package-II)

14/02/2020 4 HAM 9 38 Karnataka South

39

RFP for 4 Laning of Dobaspet to Dodaballapur Bypass section of NH-648 ( Old NH-207) on Hybrid Annuity Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojna, in the state of Karnataka (Package-I).

14/02/2020 4 HAM 10 42 Karnataka South

40

RFP for Four Laning of Poondiankuppam to Sattanathapuram section of NH-45A (New NH -332) in the State of Tamil Nadu under NHDP Phase-IV on Hybrid Annuity Mode.

25/02/2020 4 HAM 18 57 Tamil Nadu South

41

Two laning with Paved Shoulder of Meensurutti to Chidambarm Section of NH-227 on Hybrid Annuity Mode under Bharatmala Pariyojana Phase – I (Residual Projects under NHDP) in the State of Tamil Nadu (2nd Call).

31/01/2020 2 HAM 5 32 Tamil Nadu South

Total 361 1,215 Source: NHAI, HDFC sec Inst Research, NHAI BPC in Rs bn

Page | 14

Page 15: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

Disclosure: We, Parikshit Kandpal, CFA, Shrey Pujari, MBA and Rohan Rustagi, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock –No HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is solely for information of the recipient only. The report must not be used as a singular basis of any investment decision. The views herein are of a general nature and do not consider the risk appetite or the particular circumstances of an individual investor; readers are requested to take professional advice before investing. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in securities of the companies referred to in this document (including merits and risks) and should consult their own advisors to determine merits and risks of such investment. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete. HSL is not obliged to update this report for such changes. HSL has the right to make changes and modifications at any time. This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently sent or has reached any person in such country, especially, United States of America, the same should be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, for any purposes or in any manner. Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. This document is not, and should not, be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This report should not be construed as an invitation or solicitation to do business with HSL. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments. HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions. HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report. HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business. HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report. HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600 HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX: INZ000186937; AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549; PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 11092018; IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: CA0062; SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475; SEBI Investment Adviser Reg. No.: INA000011538; CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193 Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing.

Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Page | 15

Page 16: SECTOR UPDATE 31 JAN 2020 NHAI - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/February/... · festive season after muted traffic growth witnessed in September (monsoon

NHAI: SECTOR UPDATE

HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com

Page | 16