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Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC

Tbilisi 2009

 

 

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Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia and UNDP Country Office are greatly thankful to all national and international experts engaged in the project for their contribution in

preparing of this document

Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC is prepared by the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources and United Nation Development Programme Address: 6 Gulua st., Tbilisi, 0114

Web: www.climatechange.telenet.ge

Email: mshvangiradze@gol.ge

 

 

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Acronyms ALM – Adaptation Learning Mechanism BAU – Business-As-Usual BSEC – Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation CC – Climate Change CDM – Clean Development Mechanism CIDA – Canadian International Development Agency COP – Conference of the Parties DCP – Desertification Climate Potential DNA – Designated National Authority DOE – Designated Operational Entity EBRD – European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ESCO – Energy Service Company FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FOD – First Order Decay GAM – Global Average Method GCM – Global Circulation Model GCOS - Global Climate Observing System GEF – Global Environment Facility GEL – Georgian Lari GFSIS – Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies GHG – Greenhouse Gas GPG – Good Practice Guidance GTZ – German Technical Cooperation GWP – Global Warming Potential HPP – Hydro Power Plant HTC – Hydrothermal Coefficient HWI – Heat Wave Index ICAM – Integrated Coastal Area Management System IDP – Internally Displaced Person INC – Initial National Communication INTAS – International Association for the promotion of co-operation with scientists from the New Independent States of the former Soviet Union IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LPG – Liquefied Petroleum Gas LULUCF – Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry MOE – Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia MoEdS – Ministry of Education and Science of Georgia NCSP – National Communications Support Programme NGO – Non-Governmental Organization NMVOC – Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compound OECD – Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development PDD – Project Design Document PPP – Public-Private Partnership PIN – Project Idea Note QA/QC – Quality Assurance / Quality Control REC – Regional Environmental Centre for the Caucasus SERI – Stockholm Environment Research Institute SHPP – Small Hydro Power Plant SIDA – Swedish International Development Agency SNC – Second National Communication SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios TACIS – Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States

 

 

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TED – Technology and Environmental Database TRACECA – Transportation Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia UNDP – United Nations Development Programme UNEP – United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID – United States Agency for International Development USD – United States Dollar WB – World Bank WHO – World Health Organization WMO – World Meteorological Organization

 

 

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Contents

Foreword

Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... . .8

Chapter 1 National circumstances ............................................................................... 17

1.1 National and regional development priorities .................................................. 17

1.2 Political profile ................................................................................................17

1.3 Geography and climate ......................................................................................17

1.4 Population and demographic profile ................................................................ 19

1.5 Economy .......................................................................................................... 20

1.6 Institutions related to the Convention implementation .................................... 27

Chapter 2 National GHG inventory .............................................................................. 30

2.1 GHG emissions ................................................................................................. .38

2.1.1 Carbon dioxide (CO2) ......................................................................38

2.1.2 Methane (CH4) .................................................................................47

2.1.3 Nitrous oxide (N2O) ........................................................................ 57

2.1.4 Industrial gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6 ) ..................................................64

2.1.5 Other GHGs and SO2 ........................................................................ 66

2.2 Sectoral emission of GHGs ................................................................................67

2.2.1 Energy................................................................................................67

2.2.2 Industrial processes .......................................................................... .68

2.2.3 Solvent and other product use .......................................................... .68

2.2.4 Agriculture .........................................................................................69

2.2.5 Land use, land-use change and forestry .............................................69

2.2.6 Waste .................................................................................................73

2.3 Uncertainty analysis ............................................................................................74

2.4 GHG national inventory strategy ........................................................................74

Chapter 3 Steps planned to implement the Convention ................................................. 84

Chapter 4 Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change ...................... 94

4.1 Vulnerability assessment .................................................................................... 94

4.1.1 Assessment of climate change ........................................................... 94

4.1.2 Black Sea coastal zone .....................................................................101

4.1.3 Dedoplistskaro region ......................................................................116

4.1.4 Kvemo Svaneti .................................................................................129

 

 

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4.1.5 Health...................................................................................................... 140

4.2 Adaptation measures .................................................................................................144

4.2.1 Black Sea coastal zone ............................................................................144

4.2.2 Dedoplistskaro region ..............................................................................155

4.2.3 Lentekhi Region....... ...............................................................................165

Chapter 5 Policies and measures to mitigate climate change ..............................................173

5.1 Energy sector development scenarios........................................................................173

5.2 Clean Development Mechanism in Georgia..............................................................198

Chapter 6 Other information ....................................................................................202

6.1 Climate change research and systematic observation................................................202

6.2 Education, training and public awareness .................................................................204

6.3 Capacity-building at national and regional levels .................................................... 210

Chapter 7 Constraints and gaps, and related financial, technical and capacity needs..........211

7.1 Barriers to implementing the UNFCCC in Georgia...................................................211

7.2 Capacity needs assessment ........................................................................................213

7.3 Financial needs of the country to assist efficient implementation of the

Convention.................................................................................................................214

Annexes..................................................................................................................................215

 

 

 

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Executive Summary National circumstances Georgia’s national and regional priorities are defined by its geopolitical location, historical relationships, social and cultural peculiarities, and the requirements of current momentum. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Georgia became a member of European structures, and the process of entering NATO has been an active undertaking since. Georgia’s national and regional priority is to be integrated into European structures. This has helped Georgia to establish and strengthen its democratic institutions and principles, maintain stable and mutually profitable relations with all states, protect common human rights, and provide favourable conditions for its own individual development. Regional priorities have included the development of mutually profitable economic relations, and a strengthening of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation. Georgia is a Presidential republic. The executive power is represented by the Cabinet of Ministers headed by the Prime Minister, with the power Ministries being directly under the President’s subordination. Legislative power is represented by the Parliament, and the judicial power by the Supreme, Constitutional, District, and Municipal courts. As of July 2008, the population of Georgia was just above 4.6 million, and 53% of the population was living in urban areas. Georgia is situated in the south-east of Europe, between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. Its total area is 69,700 km2. Mountainous landscape determines the variety of Georgia’s physical geography: there are humid subtropical lowlands and wetlands, plains, semi-deserts, highlands, mountains covered by forests and glaciers, some lakes and plenty of rivers. Mountains cover a significant part of the territory: 54% of it is located at an altitude of 1,000 m above sea level. The Black Sea coastal zone has a humid subtropical climate. The average annual temperature there is 14-150C, with extremes ranging from -150C to +450C, and annual amounts of precipitation vary between 1,500 mm and 2,500 mm. The Black Sea influences the climate of West Georgia, resulting in mild winters, hot summers and abundant precipitation. Here in the mountainous and high mountainous areas, the annual air temperature ranges from 2-40C to 6-100C with an absolute minimum between -300C and -350C, and annual amounts of precipitation range between 1,200 mm and 2,000 mm. The climate in the plains of East Georgia is dry: in the lowlands, it is dry and subtropical; and in mountainous areas, it is alpine. The average annual temperature is 11-130C in the plains, and 2-70C in the mountains. The absolute minima are -250C and -360C respectively. In the high mountains (the slopes of Mount Kazbegi), the absolute maximum reaches +420C, and the absolute minimum reaches -420C. The annual amounts of precipitation vary within the range of 400-600 mm in the plains, and 800-1,200 mm in the mountains. Like other republics of the former USSR, Georgia has an economy in transition. Economic reforms aimed at transforming the country into a market economy began immediately after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, but have not succeeded so far. Under the Soviet Union, the leading branches of the economy were industry, agriculture, and services, comprising nearly equal shares in their GDPs. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the industry underwent considerable decline, due to the disruption of economic relations between the former Soviet

 

 

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Union republics and the boosting of energy prices as they were brought into line with international market prices. The problems in industry have led to a decline in other sectors as well. Conditions gradually began to improve after reforms launched in 1997 and improvement has intensified since 2003. According to the IMF an abundant flow of private capital investment into the country increased by 4.6 times between 2004 and 2007 amounting to USD 2.3 billion. This has made a considerable contribution to the region’s economic revival. In recent years, economic growth has followed an almost irreversible trend in nearly all sectors, and in 2008, a 9% GDP growth was expected. However, the military conflict in August 2008 changed the country’s economic conditions: the country suffered heavy losses in all sectors of its economy, including those making major contributions to GDP, such as agriculture, manufacturing, trade, tourism, transportation, construction, and banking. The social costs of accommoding and assisting thousands of homeless Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), as well as reduced purchasing power have imposed a heavy burden on the still weak economy. Despite the possible further impact of this conflict on the structure and the dynamics of GDP, Georgia’s development in the 21st century will conform to the SRES scenarios A1, A2 and B1. Of these, the most likely scenario judged by experts is A1. National GHG inventory The years 1987-1997 were considered and assessed in Georgia’s first national inventory of greenhouse gases (GHGs) undertaken during the preparation of the Initial National Communication (INC). In the Second National Communication (SNC), the GHG inventory continued into the 1998-2006 period. Calculations were based on the IPCC 1996 Guidelines and were specified under the IPCC Good Practice Guidance (GPG) recommendations. For the first time the QA/QC procedures and uncertainty analysis for key sectors were implemented. In the INC, the base year was 1990, while in the SNC, the base year is 2000. Figure 1 presents the results of GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) for CO2, CH4 and N2O in Georgia for the years 1990 (A), 2000 (B) and 2006 (C), respectively.

Figure 1. GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) in Georgia in 1990 (A), 2000 (B) and 2006 (C)

C

A  B 

 

 

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As Figure 1 illustrates, the aggregated GHG emissions from the territory of Georgia underwent significant changes during the last two decades. First of all, CO2 emissions fell drastically in the first decade (1990-2000) by more than ten times. CH4 emissions have also declined, but only by 23%, and those of N2O by 49%. In 2006, the emissions of CO2 and N2O increased by 58% and 33% respectively, while those of CH4 decreased by 17% compared to 2000. The sectoral distribution of emissions for the same years has indicated that the main reason for such a sharp decrease in CO2 emissions is a fall in the energy and industry sectors, caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union’s so-called “planned economy” and consequent disruption of existing economic ties between the former republics. The agriculture and waste sectors have been less responsive to these processes. From the end of 1990s, Georgia’s economy began to revive, bringing about some increases in CO2 emissions, mainly accounted for by the significant rise in transportation subsectors. The definite decrease in CH4 emissions for the recent period of 2000-2006 is attributed to the marked decline in leakages from the natural gas transmission and distribution system, as a result of the improved maintenance of gas pipelines. Based on the experience gained through compiling the second national GHG inventory, both short-term (2009-2012) and long-term GHG inventory strategies have been developed. Short-term objectives include annual updating of GHG inventory and the improvement of inventory quality control process, as well as the improvement of legislative measures. The objective of the long-term strategy, to be implemented from 2012, is to ensure a comprehensive and sustainable national inventory process and the implementation of regulations required under the EU legislation. Steps planned to implement the Convention As a first step towards implementing its obligations under the UNFCCC, Georgia prepared an Initial National Communication in 1997-1999. Since then a number of projects have been implemented in the country, aimed at studying various aspects of climate change and preparing for mitigation and adaptation proposals. During 2006-2009, Georgia has prepared its SNC to the UNFCCC. In the process, the national GHG inventory has been undertaken; future climate change scenarios have been developed; and the vulnerability of different ecosystems and economic sectors to current and expected climate change has been assessed. The adaptation projects were prepared, along with the planning of GHG abatement measures, and a number of activities in raising public awareness were conducted. Based on the assessments and results obtained in the SNC, as well as other past and ongoing projects in Georgia, short and long-term climate change strategies have been prepared. The strategies do not yet cover the whole territory of the country, but are focused on the priority regions selected during the stocktaking exercise. The strategies aim to remove barriers in the following six areas: enhancing the local potential for the implementation of UNFCCC principles; ensuring the sustainability of the national GHG inventory; assessing the vulnerability to climate change and adaptation measures; mitigating GHG emissions and raising public awareness. Key target groups considered in the Strategy are: the Cabinet of Ministers, the Ministries of Environment, Energy, Economic Development, Agriculture, Health, Education and Finance, the

 

 

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Parliament of Georgia, the Department of Statistics, the private sector, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), research institutions, local administrations and municipalities, farmers and rural populace, teachers and lecturers, businessmen and mass-media representatives. Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change The vulnerability of three priority areas has been assessed based on the future climate change scenarios. These priority areas are the Black Sea coastal zone, Dedoplistskaro and Kvemo Svaneti regions. Climate change scenarios. The current change in climate elements in Georgia, and in priority regions in particular, has been assessed based on actual observation data. Mean air temperature and temperature extremes, precipitation, relative humidity, wetting regimes and wind were investigated, as well as trends of extreme events (high winds, drought, landslides, floods, etc.), characteristic to each of the examined regions. The trends of change in the mean annual air temperature, the mean annual precipitation, and the moistening regime, were estimated between the two time periods 1955–1970 and 1990-2005. In all three priority regions, statistical analysis has revealed an increased tendency for both mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation from the first (1955-1970) to the second (1990-2005) period. The increment of temperature and precipitation in West Georgia appeared to vary in the range of 0.2–0.40C and 8-13% respectively, while in East Georgia the relevant values were found to be 0.60C and 6%. The changes in air temperature absolute minima and absolute maxima also demonstrated a warming tendency in both the warm and the cold periods of the year. Two regional models have been used for the assessment of future climate scenarios: PRECIS and MAGICC/SCENGEN. The MAGICC/SCENGEN model was used for selecting the most suitable GCM for East and West Georgia, for each season and each climatic parameter. Two runs of the PRECIS model were used for the forecast of future localised changes. The results of these models in West Georgia show an increase by 3.50C in mean annual temperature to the end of this centuary, accompanied with a decrease in precipitation by about 6%, while in East Georgia the air temperature is expected to rise by 4.10C, and sums of precipitation could fall down to 14%. This process of reverse changes in temperature and precipitation is anticipated to be sharpened in summer when both tendencies are more distinct than in other seasons. Black Sea coastal zone. Georgia’s coastal zone is affected by a variety of geophysical processes (tectonic movements, rising sea levels, tidal waves, floods, underwater currents, river sedimentation, etc.), some of which are being intensified by current climate change. This zone is considered the most vulnerable to climate change. In the past century, the mean rate of sea-level rise (eustasy) at the eastern coast of the Black Sea was 2.6 mm/yr. In the years 1924-1996, the sea surface temperature decreased by 1.00C. However, in 1990-2006 it increased by 1.30C, resulting in the warming of the sea surface temperature by 0.20C. Owing to the increase in maximum wind velocities, the frequency of powerful storms (force 5 to 7) has increased by three times in Poti and Batumi during the past four decades. A number of indicators have been identified (eustasy, storms, sedimentation and changes in sea surface water temperature) for assessing the vulnerability of various coastal zone areas to climate change (R. Rioni Delta, R. Chorokhi Delta, lower reaches of R. Rioni and the Sokhumi coastal area). This assessment has indicated that the most vulnerable part of the coastal zone is the R.

 

 

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Rioni Delta surrounding the city of Poti. A number of adaptation projects have been developed for the most vulnerable areas to meet the challenges of climate change in this century. Dedoplistskaro region. The Dedoplistskaro region (DTR), due to its territories under threat of desertification, has been selected as a second priority region for assessing the vulnerability to climate change, and adequate adaptation measures have been developed to mitigate this desertification process. Extreme weather events such as drought and high winds are significantly affecting agriculture, the only developed economic sector in the region. Under the impact of climate change, the severity of these phenomena has increased markedly in the past 50 years: the annual duration of the drought period has extended from 54 to 72 days, and the frequency of its occurrence has risen two-fold. The frequency of high winds ( 30 m/s) has increased by five times since the beginning of 1980s. Analysis of meteorological records has indicated that for the past half-century, the mean annual temperature has increased by 0.60C, and the mean annual precipitation by 6%. The projected decrease in precipitation by 14% by the year 2100 could increase the aridity of local climate, transforming local semi-arid landscapes into arid semi-desert and desert landscapes. With the threat of potential aridisation of the region’s two rivers – the Alazani and Iori – in mind, the main water suppliers of the territory have been assessed through the hydrological model WEAP. The results have demonstrated the possibility of an 8% decrease in the annual runoff of R. Alazani in the period 2071-2100. However, the modelling of water deficit in the irrigation systems has shown that even in case of a 50% decrease in the river runoff, and the increase in water consumption by the same percentage, the demand will be met in all months except August. The same methodology applied to R. Iori has revealed an anticipated 11% decrease in river runoff and the impossibility of meeting a future water demand increase of even 10%. The computer model CropWat has been applied to assess the influence of climate change on water deficit for some crops and pastures. The shortage of water for winter wheat, sunflower and pastures was revealed in the past (1960-2005) and assessed for the projected period 2021-2100. Owing to the current minimum anthropogenic interference (arable land is not irrigated, wind belts are exterminated, part of the land is abandoned, etc.) the situation in the region is in the best position to reflect the impact of present climate conditions on the crops and their yield. Kvemo Svaneti. Kvemo Svaneti (the mountainous region) has been identified as an ecosystem vulnerable to various disastrous weather events, significantly enhanced by global warming. As a result of the increased frequency and intensity of these phenomena (floods, landslides and mud torrents), land erosion has intensified and greatly damaged agriculture, forests, roads and communications. As a result of the intensification of landslides and floods, the population of the Lentekhi region has decreased by 40% since 1986, and it is believed that this process will continue until decisive adaptation measures are taken to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change in the region. The mean annual air temperature and level of precipitation in this region have increased by 0.40C and 106 mm (8%) respectively, for the past 50 years

 

 

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Analysis of observation data on floods for the period of 1967–1989 has demonstrated that in the second half of the period the recurrence of floods grew by more than two-fold, and the maximum discharge has increased by 9%. At the same time, the duration of floods has decreased by 25%, which could explain the rise in intensity and severity of floods. Since 1980, the number of landslides has increased by 43%, reaching a total of 117 at present. This especially steep rise in the number of landslides was provoked by the abundant snowfall in the winter of 1986-1987. The increase in heavy precipitation for the last two decades in Kvemo Svaneti has also caused an almost two-fold growth in the frequency of mud streams. Despite sufficient provisions of precipitation in the Lentekhi region, its territory is affected by drought from time to time, the duration and recurrence of which have increased by 38% and 17% respectively since 1991, compared with the 1956-1972 period. Forests represent one of the main natural riches of Kvemo Svaneti, covering about 60% of its territory. For the last 15-20 years, the growing spread of pests and diseases has been observed in the forests of the region. Assessments of Central Caucasus glaciers, including in the Svaneti region, have indicated that up to the present time the total area of glaciers in Kvemo Svaneti may have decreased by 25%, and their total volume may have been reduced from 1.2 km3 to 0.8 km3. Projected rises in temperature by the year 2050 may result in the total disappearance of Kvemo Svaneti glaciers. Health. This is the first time that the health sector has been studied in the SNC. The focus was on the priority regions considered above. This survey indicates that elderly people are the most sensitive category to changes in climate elements. Malaria and leishmaniasis have been identified as the diseases posing most risk due to climate change. Analysis of the distribution of these vector borne diseases has indicated that they are spread predominantly in the far eastern part of Georgia – in the Kakheti region, which includes Dedoplistskaro, and in Tbilisi. From the total of 438 malaria cases detected in the period 1996-2005, 319 cases (73%) were attributed to the Kakheti region. The dynamic of leishmaniasis cases in Tbilisi for the same period of time shows an increase from 15 cases in 1995 to 160 cases in 2005. The current number of registered cases is not high enough to indicate that there is an epidemic of leishmaniasis, and moreover of malaria, in Georgia. Nevertheless, a growth in the mean annual temperature is expected to increase the frequency of these diseases. Adaptation measures. Adaptation strategies have been developed for all three priority regions described above. Based on these strategies, a number of adaptation proposals have been elaborated upon, the main features of which are presented in Table 1.

 

 

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Table 1. Adaptation proposals identified in Georgia’s SNC No. Title of the project Project objective Project cost (USD)

The Black Sea coastal zone 1 Management of climate

change–driven risks in Rioni Delta

Establishment of flood warning and information dissemination system

100,000 (stocktaking exercise),

1 million (implementation phase)

2 Adaptation measures in Rioni Delta

Shoreline protection in Rioni Delta 100-130 million

3 Coast protection measures in Batumi-Adlia seashore zone

Shoreline protection in Batumi-Adlia segment 65–88 million

Dedoplistskaro Region 4 Rehabilitation of wind belts

in Dedoplistskaro region Mitigation of climate change impact in the region that has been suffering from drought and land erosion processes

24.1 million

5 Plantation of 40 ha of energy forest in Dedoplistskaro region

Rehabilitation of eroded and degraded land, and supply of firewoods to local settlements

296,241

6 Irrigation of pastures from the Dali Reservoir

Rehabilitation of pastures for sustainable development of livestock husbandry in the region

205,000

7 Rehabilitation of Zilicha pumping station

Restoration of irrigation for 5,200 ha of arable land in Dedoplistskaro region

59,000

8 Watering 900 ha of Taribana arable land

Facilitation of sustainable harvest in the region 73,000

Kvemo Svaneti 9 Planting of hazelnut in

Lentekhi region Combating land erosion at the landslide-prone slopes in the region

281,700

Other regions 10 Mitigation of disastrous

glacial phenomena in the Dariali Gorge

Elaboration of adaptation measures to reduce losses caused by melting glaciers

To be estimated after survey

11 Wind farm “Rustavi” Substitution of fuel-based power by wind energy to reduce power deficiency

35.0 million

12 Wind farm “Skra” Substitution of fuel-based power by wind energy to reduce power deficiency

35.5 million

13 Wind farm “Poti” Substitution of fuel-based power by wind energy to reduce power deficiency

21.1 million

14 Wind farm “Batumi” Substitution of fuel-based power by wind energy to reduce power deficiency

34.1 million

Policies and measures to mitigate climate change The national GHG inventory for the years 2000-2006 has shown that the energy sector, including transportation, is the leading sector in emissions in Georgia. To estimate the future trends of GHG emissions under different mitigation policies, the software model LEAP has been applied. Three scenarios have been assumed for the evaluation of possible future trends of Georgia’s energy sector: the baseline scenario (BAU), alternative scenario 1 (Split Public) and alternative scenario 2 (State Policy). The quantitative characteristics of energy sector evolution projected for 2025 are discussed for all three scenarios, covering residential, industry and service, agricultural and other subsectors, as well as the electricity generation features for the same period. GHG emissions calculated for the entire energy sector appeared to be sufficiently sensitive to different scenarios. The results have clearly shown how different measures influence the GHG emissions. In particular, they demonstrate the role of Government policy (State Policy scenario)

 

 

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in reducing GHG emissions. The modelling results show that the energy efficiency measures and renewable energy savings are 6% under alternative scenario 1, and 12% under alternative scenario 2. Calculations performed for the power generation sector have demonstrated the possibility of reducing emissions from this sector by increasing the share of renewable resources such as wind and hydro. For example, according to the State Policy scenario, the share of renewable resources in the power generation sector will be maximised in 2025, thus reducing the GHG emissions to zero by this year. Conclusions and recommendations are supplemented by the National GHG Mitigation Strategy for the years 2010-2025, in which different measures are discussed, aimed at the abatement of GHG emissions, the creation of an enabling environment in the electricity generation sector, and fuel switching in energy demand, as well as in heat and energy consumption. The CDM is regarded as an efficient tool for the practical implementation of the GHG Mitigation Strategy. In 2002, the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources was appointed as the Designated National Authority (DNA). Four CDM Project Idea Notes (PINs) have been prepared for submission to the DNA. Other information Climate change research and systematic observation, education and training, and capacity-building issues are discussed. At present the systematic hydrometeorological observations in Georgia are being conducted at about 40 stations and posts. The Tbilisi meteorological station is included in the GCOS system. A number of measures are being undertaken to optimize and rehabilitate the Georgian observation network. Under the assistance of WMO, USAID, and the Finnish and Canadian governments, a number of observation sites are being equipped with modern measuring devices. The Japanese government is considering assistance in the installation of two meteorological radars and a satellite imagery reception unit. The Georgian Government will also contribute to this process. A number of theoretical studies have been carried out by Georgian research institutions and scientific organizations in the past 10 years since the preparation of the Initial National Communication. The research was mainly conducted at the Institutes of Hydrometeorology, Geography and Geophysics, the High Technology National Centre and I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University. In addition, Georgia took part in implementing a number of regional projects, which included the following areas: (i) decreasing transboundary degradation in the Kura-Araks basin; (ii) improving water problems in South Caucasus and Moldova; (iii) improving the GHG inventory; (iv) developing environment networks and information systems; (v) monitoring floods; (vi) enhancing the energy efficiency in different sectors of economy; and (vii) promoting sustainable development in mountain regions. In 2004-2006, two regional capacity-building projects were implemented: the EuropeAid CDM capacity-building project aimed at preparing the ground for the implementation of CDM projects

 

 

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in South Caucasus and Moldova; and UNDP/GEF project for improving the quality of the national GHG inventory. Several activities have been carried out in the areas of education, training and awareness-raising. Among these activities are University students practised running various models (LEAP, WEAP, CropWat, CoFix, PRECIS, MAGICC/SCHENGEN, etc.); a painting exhibition organized for school pupils; and publishing calendars for 2008 and 2009 telling the stories of vulnerability in Dedoplistskaro and Kvemo Svaneti. Different guidelines have been translated from English to Georgian for national experts and annual bulletins have been published in 2007 and 2008. Constraints and financial needs The following main constraints have been identified in the process of preparing the SNC: Environment protection is not yet a priority for the country and therefore the integration of climate change issues in sectoral development programmes and concepts is almost impossible. There is also a lack of national experts on climate change; an absence of relevant scientific assessments and surveys; a lack of coordination and information-sharing between relevant projects and programmes being implemented in the country; and low awareness among decision-makers, private sector and the general public. The main barriers to the implementation of the CDM process are the still weak market infrastructure, the inaccessibility of data to construct baseline scenarios, and the small potential of CDM projects. The country’s capacity-building needs include re-training of local experts in cross-cutting issues, encouraging young experts in their inolvement with international programmes, and improving the accessibility of national statistics. The tentatively assessed financial needs of the country to cope with the adverse impact of climate change are considered in the relevant chapters. It is obvious that these needs can only be considered as preliminary to a broader assessment.

 

 

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Chapter 1 National Circumstances

1.1 National and regional development priorities Georgia’s national and regional priorities are defined by its geopolitical location, historical relationships, social and cultural peculiarities, and the requirements of current momentum. Georgia, one of the most ancient countries in the world, is situated in the South Caucasus, between the Black and the Caspian seas, to the south of the Great Caucasus mountain range. Because of its favourable geographic location, Georgia has been involved in the arena of its powerful neighbours’ geopolitical interests, which have determined the particularities of its social, political, and commonwealth development. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Georgia restored its independence and started to build a democratic society. Reforms in all areas have begun. Georgia became a member of European structures, and the process of entering NATO has been an active undertaking since. Georgia’s national and regional priorities have kept it closely integrated with European structures. This has helped Georgia to establish and strengthen its democratic institutions and principles, to maintain stable and mutually beneficial relations with all states, to protect common human rights and provide favourable conditions for its own individual development. Regional priorities have included the development of mutually beneficial economic relations, and a strengthening of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation. Georgia’s national and regional interests include good neighbouring relations with Russia as well, but only under conditions of mutual respect for equality and territorial integrity for one another. At present the utmost attention of the country’s leaders in Georgia is devoted to protecting state security, and for this reason, to joining NATO. The same goals are underway in creating and establishing an energy corridor (Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan and Baku-Supsa oil pipelines and a Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipeline) to provide fuel supplies to Europe which pass around Russia, thereby creating additional guarantees for the security of Georgia as well as the economic benefits. 1.2 Political profile Georgia is a Presidential republic. The President of Georgia is Head of the Country. The executive power is represented in the Cabinet of Ministers headed by the Prime Minister, with the power Ministries being directly under the President’s subordination. Legislative power is represented by the Parliament, and the judicial power by Supreme, Constitutional, District, and Municipal courts. 1.3 Geography and climate

Georgia is situated in the South-East of Europe. To the North, Georgia borders on the Russian Federation, to the south with Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Its total area comprises 69,700 km2. A mountainous landscape determines the variety of Georgia’s physical geography: there are mountains, valleys, plains, lowlands, glaciers, wetlands, arid lands, lakes, rivers and even

 

 

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geysers. Mountains cover a significant part of the territory: 54% of it is located at an altitude of 1,000 m above sea level. In addition to the Great Caucasus range, there are several other mountain ranges in Georgia. The most important is the Likhi Range, running from the North to the South and dividing the country into its Eastern and Western parts. Almost every climatic zone is represented in Georgia except for savannas and tropical forests. To the North, the range of the Great Caucasus protects the country from the direct penetration of cold air. The circulation of these air masses has mainly determined the precipitation regime all over the territory of Georgia. The climatic picture totally differs in both parts of Georgia as divided by the Likhi Range. The climate in Western Georgia is highly diverse, altering in certain areas very sharply from humid subtropical to permafrost. The climate is determined by the Black Sea coast to the West, and by the amphitheatre of three big mountain ranges (the Great Caucasus, the Likhi and the Meskheti), in addition to the surrounding Kolkheti lowland (wetland) in the very centre. The Black Sea coastal zone has a humid subtropical climate. The average annual temperature there is 14-150C, with extremes ranging from +450C to -150C, and annual amounts of precipitation vary between 1,500 mm and 2,500 mm. The Black Sea influences the climate of West Georgia, resulting in mild winters, hot summers and abundant precipitation. Here in the mountainous and high mountainous areas, the annual air temperature ranges from 6-100C to 2-40C with an absolute minimum between -300C and -350C, and annual amounts of precipitation range between 1,200-1,600 mm and 2,000 mm. In East Georgia the climate is also complex: the basin of the River Mtkvari (Kura) crosses the central plain. To the South of the river stretches the volcanic Javakheti Highland, with the Samsari Range (its highest peak at 3,301 m above sea level) at its centre. Kakheti makes up the extreme eastern region, which borders the southern branch of the Great Caucasus range from the North. The climate in the plains of East Georgia is dry: in the lowlands, it is a dry subtropical climate, and in mountainous areas it is alpine. The average annual temperature is 11-130C in the plains, and 2-70C in the mountains. The absolute minima are -250C and -360C respectively. The absolute maximum reaches +420C, and the absolute minimum falls to -420C in the high mountains (the slopes of Mount Kazbegi). The annual amounts of precipitation vary in the range of 400-600 mm in the plains, and 800-1,200 mm in the mountains. Georgia is rich in fresh water: rivers, lakes and springs. The rivers are not large enough to be navigated but they are fairly potent for the purposes of hydro energy and fishery, owing to their fast and sloping run. The largest river is the Mtkvari (Kura), which originates in Turkey and, crossing through almost all Georgia, flows into the Mingechaur Reservoir (in Azerbaijan). Two other rivers also flow here – the Alazani and the Iori, originating in the mountains of the Great Caucasus, and running down the Kakheti region. The other important rivers of Eastern Georgia are the Liakhvi, the Khrami, and the Aragvi. Western Georgia is even richer in rivers than Eastern Georgia. Most of these have their origins in the mountains of the Great Caucasus. The rivers Rioni, Enguri, Tskhenistskali, Natanebi, and Supsa, all flow into the Black Sea.

 

 

19

In South Georgia, on the Javakheti Highland, at an altitude of 2,100 m, lies Georgia’s largest lake, Paravani (37.5 km2). Other lakes include Paliastomi (18.2 km2), Tabatskuri (14.2 km2), Jandari (10.6 km2), and Bazaleti (12 km2). There are also over 20 reservoirs of fresh water formed by different rivers. Georgia is rich in various ecosystems. The Kolkheti lowland stretches over 600 km2 of Western Georgia and is a vast wetland; in Eastern Georgia, the Kakheti region is the arid area of the Gareji semi-desert (70 km2), and glaciers along the Great Caucasus occupy an area of about 500 km2. Forests cover 43% of the total area of the country. Georgia’s magnificent forests, abundant in rare species of wood, are the true wealth of the country. The rich nature, diverse climate and large variety of healing geothermal and mineral waters in the country have resulted in a number of resorts being established, some of which are world-famous. Georgia possesses certain reserves of various mineral resources, the most important of which are manganese, iron, copper, coal and marble.

Table 1.1. Georgia’s Territory

Total area Agricultural area

Forest Area

Mountainous area (over 1,000 m)

Fresh waters (lakes, rivers, reservoirs)

Wetlands Glaciers Semi- deserts

1,000 km2 1,000 ha 1,000 ha % % 1,000 ha km2 km2 km2 69.7 3,025.8 2,456.2 43 54 835.1 600 511* 70

* Based on 1960 data; but latest estimate indicates that this area has been decreased to about 400 km2 (in detail about glaciers (see below chapter. 4.1.4)

1.4 Population and demographic profile As of July 2008, the population of Georgia was about 4.63 million (estimation). Two thirds of the population (67.1%) were between 15 and 64 years old. An economically active population comprises 31% of the total. 52% live in towns, with this figure increasing annually by nearly 0.1%. Georgia’s population has been decreasing slightly (-0.32%), due to a high rate of migration (4.36 per 1000 capita) and not to the birth/mortality ratio (10.62 births and 9.51 deaths per 1,000 capita). The number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) from the Abkhazia region, and South Ossetia, constitutes about 220-240 thousand inhabitants, according to a census in 2007. After the military conflict in August 2008, the number of IDPs increased by 120,000. Ethnically the population of Georgia is heterogeneous (according to a census in 2002) consisting of 83.8% ethnic Georgians, 6.5% ethnic Armenians, 1.5% ethnic Russians, and 2.5% other ethnic groups. 71% speak Georgian as their first language; 9%, Russian; 7%, Armenian; and 6%, Azeri. Religious denominations are also presented in large variety: in traditionally and historically tolerant Georgia the 83.9% orthodox Christians peacefully co-exist with 9.9% Muslims, 3.9% Gregorian Christians, 0.8% Catholics and various other denominations.

 

 

20

Throughout the entire territory of Georgia the official language is Georgian. Tbilisi, the Capital of Georgia, with nearly 1.5 million inhabitants, is situated in East Georgia on the banks of the River Mtkvari (Kura). Other important cities are Kutaisi, Rustavi, Gori, Zugdidi, Sokhumi, Batumi, and Poti. Large industrial enterprises are mainly concentrated in the urban areas.

Table 1.2. Population of Georgia

Source: Statistical Yearbook of Georgia 2008 CIA – The World Factbook – Georgia (2008)

1.5 Economy Like other republics of the former USSR, Georgia has an economy in transition. Economic reforms aimed at transforming these countries into market economies began immediately after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, but have not yet succeeded. Up to this time, the economies of these countries have experienced a lot of quantitative as well as qualitative and structural changes. Under the Soviet Union, the leading branches of their economies were industry, agriculture, and services, comprising nearly equal shares in their GDPs. After the Soviet Union disintegrated, their industries underwent considerable decline, as a result of the disruption of economic relations between the former Soviet Union republics. This boosted prices for the energy owners. The problems in industry have led to a drop in other sectors as well. Conditions gradually began to improve after reforms launched in 1997, and in Georgia the improvement has intensified since the Rose Revolution succeeded in 2003. The Government has since identified priorities of economic development. Their first task was to provide a favourable milieu for investments, such as to remove barriers impeding economic development, and to ensure energy self-sufficiency and the construction of roads. Some energy security has been reached, opening up the way for further industry, agriculture, and other economic areas to revive. Current enterprises have been rehabilitated and renovated, new ones founded, and private entrepreneurship activity has intensified. Trade has been expanding; construction, financial intermediation (banking) and the service industries are still intensifying. According to the IMF, an abundant flow of private capital investment into the country increased by 4.6 times between 2004 and 2007, amounting to USD 2.3 billion, which has made a considerable contribution to the country’s economic revival.

Number

R

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Life Expectancy

D

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ty

Sh

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ties

Social indicators

Level of education (over 10 years)

Total Wit

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t th

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pop

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of A

bk

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nd

S

outh

Oss

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Bet

wee

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-64

year

s

T

otal

Wom

en

M

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Eco

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Rat

e/le

vel f

un

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Bel

ow t

he le

vel o

f po

vert

y

Lit

erac

y le

vel

Hig

her

ed

uca

tion

(million person)

(1,000) (%) (%) Years Years Years Men/km2

(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

4,630,841 4,382.1 67.1 -0.325 76.51 80.26 73.21 66 52.6 42.4 13.3 31(2006) 99.7 24.3

 

 

21

Table 1.3. Direct foreign investment in Georgia (in USD 1,000)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1st Q

2008 2nd Q

2008 3rd Q

Direct foreign investment (USD 1,000)

499.1 449.5 1 190.4 2 014.8 430.193 525.204 150.023

The counter-corruption policy led by a steadyhand has enhanced this economic resurrection. Unemployment has been decreasing slowly but steadily, and unfavourable social conditions have been ameliorated. Economic growth has become nearly irreversible, resulting in the dynamic growth of economic indicators. The income budget exceeded GEL 6 billion, and the annual growth of the GDP in 2005-2007 grew by about 10% on average. Based on the estimates of 2007, the GDP was approximately composed of agriculture (13.1%), industry (29.3%) and services (57.6%). In the same year, agriculture, industry, construction, trade and transport contributed 50.8% towards total GDP growth, relative to the previous year. Greater growth than these general GDP figures has been shown in the fields of construction, hotels and restaurants, transport, banking, real estate, renting and business activities, which have been demonstrating noticeable progress for last few years.

Table 1.4. Trend of GDP

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1st Q

2008 2nd Q

2008 3rd Q

Volume of total GDP (market prices; GEL million) Gross Domestic Product 7 456 8 564 9 824 11 621 13 790 16 999 4 182.5 4 995.2 4 793.2 Production of goods 3 130 3 716 3 986 4 477 4 539 5 116 Service 3 903 4 404 5 079 5 937 7 615 9 664

GDP per capita, GEL 1 972.1 2 276.7 2 689.1 3 133.1 3 866.9 954.5 1 139.9 1.093.8 Currency course USD/GEL 2.1459 1.9170 1.8127 1.7767 1.6707 1.5558 1.4460 1.4091 GDP by economic activities (% from the previous year) Agriculture, hunting and forestry; Fishing

98.6 110.3 92.1 112.0 88.3 103.3 106.8 103.7 98.1

Mining and quarrying 129.8 97.9 80.1 92.2 118.7 119.9 127.1 105.8 116.4 Manufacturing 120.8 109.5 111.6 114.1 122.3 111.5 100.5 107.3 93.8 Electricity, natural gas and water supply

89.8 109.2 96.0 105.1 113.4 106.8 113.1 106.6 88.2

Processing of products by household

100.9 104.7 98.4 112.4 103.0 128.1 103.3 97.3 96.8

Construction 143.1 146.6 135.9 114.1 108.5 114.6 112.4 101.4 68.3 Trade services, Repair services (wholesale and retail sale; repair of motor vehicles and household goods)

103.9 112.1 108.2 109.4 119..7 109.6 115.2 111.8 109.5

Restaurant and Hotel services 107.6 114.2 103.5 116.6 110.5 111.4 102.4 111.4 94.0 Transport and storage 109.7 104.4 103.7 103.9 116.8 111.9 99.9 104.9 78.2 Communications 102.5 138.5 116.9 128.7 113.4 108.7 112.5 121.2 121.7 Financial intermediation 122.9 88.8 112.8 152.8 136.9 115.3 115.8 140.4 81.6 Real estate, renting and business activities

118.1 142.2 128.1 110.6 117.4 123.1 113.1 101.5 102.1

Rent of own occupied dwellings

101.1 101.9 100.6 100.9 100.2 105.4 103.6 104.7 102.2

Public administration and defence

101.2 97.7 109.7 93.7 97.6 115.9 116.1 114.5 103.1

Education 101.5 101.5 101.8 113.7 112.1 109.5 103.7 113.6 128.7

 

 

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Health care and social services 106.5 101.7 104.2 107.6 115.4 110.4 103.4 110.7 101.7 Other community, social and personal service activities

105.1 119.4 106.5 118.3 107.1 124.0 110.2 102.8 86.1

Private households with employed persons

85.9 96.1 120.5 81.2 108.5 107.5 117.5 102.1 102.8

Financial intermediary services

122.7 104.5 92.1 157.5 85.0 142.5 97.2 136.6 150.9

GDP (at market prices), % to the previous year

105.5 111.1 105.9 109.6 109.4 112.3 109.1 108.3 96.1

GDP deflator, % to the previous year

106.0 103.3 108.4 107.9 108.5 109.7 112.3 113.0 109.9

Due to the unequal development of different sectors, their shares in the Gross Domestic Product have been changing from year to year.

Table 1.5. Structure of the Gross Domestic Product, 2005-2007

Years 2005 2006 2007 Agriculture, hunting, forestry; Fishery 14.8 11.2 9.4 Industry 12.2 12.4 11.8 Processing of products by household 3.5 2.5 2.2 Construction 8.1 6.9 6.7 Trade services, Repair services (wholesale and retail sale; repair of motor vehicles and household goods)

12.0 13.6 13.1

Restaurant and Hotel services 2.8 2.3 2.2 Transport and storage 8.4 8.0 7.6 Communications 4.0 3.6 3.1 Financial intermediation 2.0 2.1 2.2 Real estate, renting and business activities 2.6 3.3 3.1 Public administration 6.5 8.5 12.8 Education 3.3 3.7 3.2 Health care and social services 3.5 4.3 4.2 Other sectors 4.9 5.0 4.4 Net indirect taxes 11.5 12.6 14.0 Gross Domestic Product 100 100 100

Industry. Industry in Georgia consists of machinery, mining (coal, oil, and gas), the chemical industry, ferroalloys, wood, wine, mineral waters and other kinds of production. A major increase in the growth of the industry sector became possible as a result of solving the main problem of energy supplies for new enterprises. Owing to the privatization process, new investments were made, which enabled the rehabilitation and technical re-equipping of former industrial enterprises, and the formation of many others. Since then, industrial production has been increasing, available markets have been identified, and employment and exports have begun to increase. This stable growth of industry is reflected by the main economic indicators shown below.

 

 

23

Table 1.6. Main indicators of industry for 2003-2007

Year

Number of enterprises

(unit)

Annual average number of employees

(1000 persons)

Turnover (GEL

million)

Output of industrial production at current prices (GEL million)

Main capital (GEL million)

2003 3,049 82.0 1,862.2 1,549.9 2,107.1 2004 3,439 85.4 2,119.7 1,754.2 2,164.8 2005 4,632 94.3 2,561.2 2,202.2 1,985.2 2006 4,149 90.3 3,228.7 2,757.3 2,124.4 2007 3,206 88.4 4,362.1 3,524.8 2,651.8

2008 1st Q ... 81.6 1,149.5 853.0 ...

2nd Q ... 85.3 1,151.7 1,019.8 ... 3rd Q ... 83.9 1,126.7 958.0 ...

The growth in three branches of industry established in recent years (2003-2007) is shown in Table 1.7.

Table 1.7. Indices of industrial production by main economic activities1)for 2003-2007

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Percent to previous year

Total Industry 114.8 108.6 116.4 110.6 114.5 Of which: Mining and quarrying 157.7 87.0 85.1 101.4 123.0 Manufacturing 117.6 114.9 124.9 112.2 114.4 Electricity, gas and water supply 103.3 102.7 106.3 110.9 108.3

1) 2002-2006 calculated on monthly data basis, from 2006 – on the basis of industrial Production Producers’ Price index Energy. Because of the exceptional importance of the energy sector from the point of view of the UNFCCC and, in particular for GHG emissions, this sector has been given special attention, especially while elaborating upon the Second National Communication. A comprehensive set of results from the research carried out during the SNC preparation process is presented in Chapter 5 of this document. The energy sector has always been a priority for the economy of Georgia, but since 2003, assuring its independence has become the main goal in developing the total economic scenario. Since 2004, this sector has been reformed. Consistent policies in this sector and market economy principles in some components of the energy system have enhanced the energy security of the country, and enabled it to meet reasonable energy demands throughout all seasons of the year. Achieving this goal became possible through Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum oil and gas pipelines, constructed and launched across Georgia. Georgia’s energy resources include mineral, hydro and other renewable sources. Mineral resources consist of special reserves of coal, crude oil and natural gas. The economy of the country is based mainly on hydropower, which provides 72% of the overall demand of electricity. Georgia is also rich in other renewable energy resources, such as wind, solar, geothermal and biomass, though with the exception of biomass, they are scarcely used, and are still waiting to be developed. Wind energy has been estimated to potentially provide 5 billion

 

 

24

kWh of electricity. There are some reserves of geothermal energy as well, but these are rarely used. Forests are one of Georgia’s most important energy resources. They cover 43% of the area of the country. The practice of uncontrolled wood-cutting common in the 1990s is now rare, due to the increased availability of other energy sources. In addition, the forestry sector is undergoing reforms, aimed at optimising the protection, development, and use of the forests. A Forest Code is under consideration, and investments have been raised. However, reforms in forestry management have been slow. This slowness is incompatible with the great importance this sector has for the country, due to the overwhelming demands made on it from society. Transport has become one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy, especially in road transport. The flow of cars has increased and been renewed, though mainly with second-hand vehicles. Fleets of municipal and intercity buses, as well as trucks, have been renovated; railway trains have been restored and partly renovated; the volume of railway transits has been increasing. Air transportation has also been expanding and intensifying. Water transport has been modernized, and thus cargo turnover has been increasing. The communication sector has been showing the most significant rise in quantity and quality. The following areas exhibit the most improvement and increased usage: post, postal transfers, telephone networks (modernized and enlarged) and cell phones. Table 1.8 shows the main indicators of the transport and communication sectors, as well as noticeable changes in correlation between different sectors.

Table 1.8. Main indicators in transport and communications

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Goods turnover Total (million t-km):

30060.0 332441.3 37488.3 41081.4 41149.8 45971.5 49946.6 49830.4

Of which: Railway 11496.1 13209.6 14951.5 16558.7 15424.4 18986.7 22643.3 22230.2 Road 18500.0 20000.0 22500.0 24500.0 25700.0 26959.3 27261.3 27561.2 Maritime 62.6 30.5 35.5 21.4 23.9 23.9 40.4 37.9 Aerial 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.1 Passenger turnover by transport types

Total (million. Pass.-km): 6002.0 6189.8 6413.1 6700.5 7069.9 7294.0 7302.1 7281.3 Of which Railway 452.9 400.9 400.6 387.4 614.9 719.7 808.9 773.9 Bus 4500.0 4764.3 4920.0 5150.0 5200.0 5252.0 5269.2 5416.7 Trolley bus 90.5 106.0 145.1 114.6 120.6 117.0 52.7 5.4 Underground 674.6 622.7 614.4 622.8 624.0 676.0 710.1 610.5 Tramway 46.2 55.4 35.7 25.4 21.1 18.5 8.3 ----- Aerial 237.8 240.5 297.3 400.3 489.3 510.8 452.9 474.8 Number of telephone users (x1000)

572.4 582.3 584.0 588.3 532.8 544.4 571.7 577.2

Number of cell telephone users (x1000)

185.5 284.0 412.8 560.8 840.6 1174.3 1703.9 2310.4

Traditionally, agriculture has been a leading sector in Georgia. The fertile soil of the country has provided favourable conditions for land cultivation, as well as animal husbandry. The agricultural area covers 43.4% of the territory. Traditional agriculture crops include grape vines,

 

 

25

wheat, and maize, fruit of many kinds, citrus plants, and tea plantations. The traditional types of animal husbandry include cattle-breeding and sheep-breeding. Owing to policy reforms in the 1990s, the agricultural sector has revived. Reforms aimed at privatising the land resulted in the ownership transfer of the land to the farmers. Recently there has been a progressive growth in the production of wine, poultry, fruit, vegetable, wheat, and fisheries. Animal husbandry consistently shows a tendency of growth in the animal headcount. This stable increase in agriculture also arises from successes in grape, citrus and other fruit production. Table 1.9. Indices of agricultural production output (at constant prices, % to the previous year)

Years Total Agricultural Production Output

Plant Production

Animal husbandry Production

2000 88.0 79.0 100.2 2001 108.2 110.7 106.0 2002 98.9 93.6 104.4 2003 110.8 118.8 103.2 2004 94.1 88.0 100.8 2005 112.1 124.2 100.3 2006 80.1 65.5 96.4 2007 112.3 135.6 95.3

Construction. In recent years, construction has continued to be one of the fastest growing sectors in Georgia. This success has been encouraged by the intensified import of construction materials, and increased local production. Developments in the banking sector have also contributed. Stable growth in the construction sector (including roads) is expected to be maintained in the near future.

Table 1.10. The volume in construction work (at actual prices)

Years Construction work

Total ( 1,000 GEL)

Contribution to construction work

(1,000 GEL) Government Private

sector 2001 239,020 34,574 204,446

2002 322,229 44,308 277,921

2003 297,890 41,381 256,509

2004 377,092 30,407 346,685

2005 746,110 51,020 695,090

2006 1,184,909 35,578 1,149,331

2007 1,717,177 35,506 1,681,671

Health care. Due to the country’s transition towards a market economy, this sector has experienced serious changes. The process of transition from free health care to an insurance-based system has begun. As a result of serious reforms carried out in this sector, idle ambulance services became re-activated, medical facilities were re-equipped, and insurance policy systems for the low-income population were set up. New hospitals, including those furnished with modern equipment, are continually being built, the quality of medical service has been

 

 

26

improving, and the insurance system is gradually gathering force. Further development of the role of insurance system in medical services has been planned. The Service sector is showing a noticeable development in Georgia. The strengthening of the banking sector and legal regulations encouraging individual initiatives have produced a favourable environment for growth in this sector. These dynamics are expected to be maintained in the future. Energy consumption by the service sector is increasing annually, making this sector one of the largest potential emitters of greenhouse gases; and consequently, its expected impact on new energy-efficiency measures is rather high. Without mitigating measures, energy consumption in this sector is projected to increase from 4% in 2006 to 5% in 2025, based on the Long-Term Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) programmatic model. In recent years, economic growth has followed an almost irreversible trend in nearly all sectors of the economy, and in 2008, 9% growth in GDP was expected. However, the military intervention of Russia in August 2008 changed the country’s economic conditions: this conflict caused considerable losses in all sectors of Georgia’s economy, including those making major contributions to the GDP, such as agriculture, manufacturing, trade, tourism, transportation, construction, and banking. The social costs of accommodating and assisting thousands of homeless IDPs, and a reduced purchasing power, have imposed heavy burdens on the still weak economy. According to expert judgment, the total economic loss in 2008 amounted to USD 804 million. These losses resulting from the conflict have been accompanied by worsening investment conditions, demonstrated by a lowered inflow of private capital, and heavily reflected in business activities. Investments decreased from USD 1.5 billion in the first half of 2008 to USD 0.5 billion in the second half of 2008. Conditions have influenced the GDP as well. According to expert estimates, the GDP is expected to fall to at least 3.5% instead of the 9% previously anticipated in early 2008, regardless of promised international assistance (USD 4.5 billion). Evidently, the consequence of the conflict in August 2008 will affect the indicators and dynamics of the GDP in the next few years quite considerably. However, our long-term perspective for Georgia’s development in the 21st century, according to experts, should conform to the SRES scenarios [1] A1, A2 and B1 from which the scenario A1 is the most liklyhood. Table 1.11. Prognosis of the GDP (percentage growth to the year 1990) according to the SRES

development scenarios A1, A2 and B1 for the REForm group* in the case of Georgia (GEL million)**

1990** 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100

A1 scenario could be regarded as the most probable option for the near future in Georgia, until the solution of territorial integrity restoration and NATO membership problems

% 0

27

90

218

363

536

2290

million/ GEL

14,965.00 19,005.55 28,433.5 47,588.7 69,257.95 95,177.40 35,7663.50

A2 scenario is less probable given the recent political and economic orientation of Georgia, as well as the scarcity of resources,

% 0

9

36

63

100

145

854

million/ GEL

14,965.00 16,311.85

20,352.40

24,392.95

29,930

36,664.25 142,766.10

 

 

27

though from the point of view of future development it can still be assumed and deserves consideration B1 scenario is expected to develop after some years when/if Georgia achieves its recently declared goals (NATO membership, restoration of territorial integrity)

% 0

27

81

172

272

381

1318

million/ GEL

14,965.00 19,005.50 27,086.65 40,704.80 55,669.80 71,981.65 212,203.70

* Nakicenovic, Nebojsa et al. 2000.Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge **Data for 1990 are taken from Statistical Yearbook of Georgia 1999. Other data are calculated from the data of 1990 as basic data by means of percentage prognostic growth.

1.6. Institutions related to the Convention implementation

Georgia is fully committed to supporting and implementing the principles of the UNFCCC, namely:

To prepare and launch appropriate legislation; To incorporate climate change concerns into the country’s development plans, including

emission abatement as well as adaptations to climate change; To prepare and submit National Communications to the UNFCCC; To update the National GHG inventory periodically and submit it to the UNFCCC; To contribute to awareness-raising among the population and decision-makers; To plan and undertake the GHG emission abatement and climate change mitigation

measures; To establish and implement measures of adaptation to climate change.

The most important of these commitments – the periodic preparation of National Communications and their submission to the UNFCCC - has already been undertaken with the financial support of the Global Environment Facility (GEF), as stipulated by the Convention. The responsibility for implementating the UNFCCC lies fully with the Government of Georgia, i.e., in leading and coordinating all activities relating to climate change undertaken by various entities through the appropriate structures of the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources. These entities undertake data collection; process scientific research; analyse, prepare and implement practical measures; exchange information; and raise awareness relating to climate change. The institutions assigned to implement the Convention in Georgia involve those directly related to climate change; other governmental structures (Ministries, Departments); scientific organizations (institutes, research centres); technical and expert groups; municipalities; and other stakeholders and organizations.

 

 

28

Table 1.12. Institutions related to the UNFCCC implementation and their functions

Institutional Structures Functions Institutional structures directly related to climate change

- Climate Change Administration at the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources -National Environmental Agency at the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources - Department of Forestry at the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources

-Coordination, direction and monitoring of the policy and measures implemented; -Preparation of legislative basis and proposals and their submission to the appropriate Committee of the Parliament; -Monitoring of the planned measures; -Monitoring of the documentation to be submitted to the UNFCCC

Other governmental structures

- Ministry of Economic Development and, particularly, its departments: - Department of Statistics; - Department of Transport - Ministry of Energy; - Ministry of Agriculture - Ministry of Health Care - Ministry of Finance - Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Ministry of Culture, Protection of

Cultural Monuments and Sports -Department of Tourism

- Ministry of Education and Science

- Exchange of data and proposals; - Consideration of the climate change

problem in sectoral development plans; - Awareness raising

Legislative structures of Georgia

Committees of the Parliament of Georgia: - Environment Protection and Natural

Resources; - Economic branches and economic

policy; - Agriculture; - Education, science and culture; - Health care and Social Services; - Regional policy, local municipal and

highlands administrations

- Support in setting up legal basis for implementation of the UNFCCC and Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol;

- Incorporation of climate change concerns in the sectoral and regional development plans

Scientific organizations

National Academy of Sciences of Georgia: - Scientific Research Institute of

Hydrometeorology; - Institute of Geography; - Institute of Geophysics - Institute of Botany;

-I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University

- Data exchange, processing, scientific research and analysis

Local municipal and regional structures

Municipalities (Local Administrations; other regional structures)

- Exchange of data and proposals - Cooperation in projects implementation - Awareness raising

Other participants - Non-Governmental Organizations - Industrial enterprises - Mass Media - National experts

- Data collection, exchange and processing; - Expert analysis materials, preparation of

documentation; - Preparation of proposals for mitigation of,

and adaptation to, climate change; - Information outreach

 

 

29

To enhance data reliability, data collection has been based on the official documents of the Department of Statistics (Yearbooks) and the National Environmental Agency, as well as certain Ministries and enterprises. To the fullest extent possible, data obtained from different sources have been compared and expertly analysed. Data processing, scientific research and analysis were mainly carried out by scientific organizations and their staff, as well as experts from different fields. The Second National Communication to be submitted to the UNFCCC has been prepared by the Government of Georgia with the financial support of the GEF and technical support of UNDP. Within the framework of this project, four working groups have been formed: the GHG Inventory; Vulnerability and Adaptation; GHG Abatement; and Awareness Raising. Each group is composed of selected national experts from different entities, who are also in close cooperation with relevant institutional and sectoral experts. To the fullest extent possible, the groups prepared their reports according to relevant UNFCCC and IPCC references and guidelines. References

1. Nakicenovic, N. et. al. Special Reporto n Emission Scenarios. IPCCC, Cambridge, 2000. 2. Statistical Yearbooks of Georgia (2000-2008); 3. Official site of the Ministry of Economic Development (Department of Statistics) of

Georgia (www.statistics.ge); 4. Georgia’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change, Tbilisi, 1999.

 

 

30

Chapter 2 National GHG Inventory

Introduction On 9 May 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit by the majority of countries in the world. Its ultimate objective is to achieve the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” The ability of the international community to attain the above objective greatly depends upon a full knowledge of the trends of greenhouse gas emissions. According to paragraph 1(a) of Article 4 and paragraph 1(a) of Article 12 of the UNFCCC, each Party is obliged to provide the governing body of the Convention – the Conference of the Parties (COP) - with information on national GHG emissions and sinks. For the non-Annex I countries, the main mechanism of reporting was defined to be the National Communication, while the Annex I Parties have been obliged to present annually an independent national report on the inventory of GHGs. In 1996, the COP at its second session (COP 2), under the decision 10/CP.2, adopted Guidelines to prepare initial national communications for the non-Annex I Parties, according to which the non-Annex I countries were to undertake an initial national GHG inventory for 1994, or as an alternative, for 1990. In 2002, COP 8 adopted new Guidelines for National Communications from non-Annex I Parties (decision 10/CP.8). In the Second National Communication the national GHG inventory was to be carried out for the year 2000. According to decision 17/CP.8, the non-Annex I Parties, while conducting a national inventory, were to use the IPCC Guidelines worked out in 1995, and revised in 1996 [1], which will be henceforth referred to as “IPCC 1996” (including its relevant software). The national GHG inventory includes 6 sectors:

1. Energy 2. Industrial processes 3. Solvents and other products use 4. Agriculture 5. Land Use Change and Forestry 6. Waste

The UNFCCC requires information on the following greenhouse gases, which are controlled by the Kyoto Protocol:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

 

 

31

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) These gases are often called the “six GHGs”, although HFCs and PFCs are virtually groups of gases. Each gas plays its individual part in the “greenhouse effect”. The share in global warming by these mixtures of gases depends on their proportional presence in the mixture. The most powerful greenhouse gases are SF6, HFCs and PFCs, known in general as the “F-gases”. Methane is 21 times more effective in trapping heat than CO2, and N2O is 310 times more effective. To control GHG emissions, the concept of Global Warming Potential (GWP) was developed, which expresses the emissions of all greenhouse gases in CO2 equivalents (CO2-eq). The exact definition of this notion is a matter for discussion, as the GWP could be expressed as a summary warming effect for a certain time horizon, for instance 2,100 or 500 years. The Parties to the Convention agreed [2] and the Kyoto Protocol has adopted the GWP time horizon of 100 years. These values of GWP for different GHGs are given in the Table 2.1 below.

Table 2.1. Atmospheric lifetime and the GWP (time horizon 100 years) for various greenhouse gases

Gas Lifetime (years) GWP

(Time horizon 100 years) CO2 variable (50-200) 1 CH4 12±3 21 N2O 120 310 HFCs HFC-23 264 11700 HFC-32 5,6 650 HFC-125 32,6 2800 HFC-134 10,6 1300 HFC-143 48,3 3800 HFC-152 1,5 140HFC-227 36,5 2900 HFC-236 209 6300 HFC-245 6,6 560 PFCs CF4 50000 6500C2F6 10000 9200C3F8 2600 7000 C4F10 2600 7000 C6F14 3200 7400 SF6 3200 23900

GHG emissions in 1987-2006 In Georgia’s Initial National Communication (INC) [3], an inventory of GHGs was undertaken for the years 1987-1997. Within the framework of the Second National Communication (SNC), the inventory was continued for the following years, 1998-2006. Calculations were based on IPCC 1996 Guidelines and the IPCC GPG recommendations [4] were followed. For the first time, QA/QC procedures and uncertainty analyses for key sectors were implemented. Table 2.2 shows GHG emissions from 1987 to 2006. Due to the unreliability of the data, methane emissions from industrial wastewater are not included for the years 1987-1989 and 1991-1994. It can be seen from this table that total GHG emissions began to sharply decrease after 1990. In 2006 emissions were about 2.5 thousand Gg, or about 25% higher than the the 1998 level. Emissions from different sectors were estimated as follows: energy sector, an increase of 1.5

 

 

32

thousand Gg (29%); industrial processes sector, an increase of 0.3 thousand Gg (40%); and agricultural sector, an increase of 1.3 thousand Gg (45%). Emissions have changed insignificantly in the solid waste subsector.

Table 2.2. GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) in 1987-1996

Sectors 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Energy 36.689 36.329 35.207 36,592 28,810 19,391 11,250 7,437 4,792 7,581

Industrial processes

6.684 6.113 6.098 5,383 4,083 2,245 1,069 544 521 707

Agriculture 5.090 4.752 4.457 3,983 3,530 3,246 2,699 2,394 2,462 2,958

Waste 1.410 1.434 1.457 2,017 1,482 1,505 1,476 1,382 1,352 1,311

Total 49.874 48.628 47.220 47,975 37,905 26,387 16,493 11,756 9,126 12,557

Table 2.2. (continued) GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) in 1997-2006

Sectors 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Energy 9,020 5,052 5,187 5,927 5,467 5,007 5,451 6,147 5,785 5,964

Industrial processes

784 716 1,002 1,024 669 972 1,109 1,334 1,672 1,002

Agriculture 3.122 2.795 2,991 2,802 3,024 3,212 3,327 3,115 3,460 3,544

Waste 1.279 1.257 1,249 1,236 1,228 1,233 1,224 1,220 1,224 1,240

Total 14,205 9,820 10,429 10,989 10,388 10,424 11,112 11,817 12,141 11,75 The data from table 2.2 are illustrated in Figure 2.1. The level of emissions from the energy sector and for total national emissions is given at the left axis, while the level of emissions from industrial processes, agricultural, and waste sectors is given on the right axis due to different scales. As is evident from this figure, a sharp fall in emissions has continued since 1991, which is exceptionally noticeable in the energy and industrial processes sectors. Emissions from the waste sector have reduced insignificantly, relating to a decrease in population.

Figure 2.1. GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) in 1990-2006

Figure 2.2. Share of sectoral emissions in total national emissions in 1990-2006.

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Energy Industry Agriculture Waste

 

 

33

Figure 2.2 shows the percentage share of sectoral emissions in total national emissions. The contribution of the energy sector is presented on the left axis, and those of other sectors, on the right axis. This figure shows that since 1991, the share of the energy sector in total emissions has been decreasing almost continuously. In 2006, its share comprised 45.6%, while in 1990, it comprised 76.3%. The share of emissions from industrial processes in 2006 was approximately the same as in 1987, though the actual emissions decreased by about four times. The share of emissions from the agriculture and waste sectors significantly increased in those years, mainly due to emission decreases in other sectors. In Table 2.3, the key emission sources are presented (with relevant values are given in bold). To reveal the key sources, emissions are ranked in ascending order for the year 2000. According to definition, the key sources are those whose total share of whole emissions equal or exceed 95%. Other sources are relatively insignificant, and comparatively simplified QA/QC procedures have been applied to estimate their emission figues.

Table 2.3. Key emission sources in 1990, 2000 and 2006

Sector Source-category Gas National emissions

2000 1990 2006Energy: Fugitives Oil and gas activities CH4 21.65 4.98 9.75Agriculture Enteric fermentation CH4 11.72 3.53 11.91Energy: Fuel combustion Transport CO2 10.12 7.91 10.38Energy: Fuel combustion Energy industries CO2 8.87 25.36 12.51Waste Solid waste disposal CH4 8.39 2.30 7.48Industrial processes Nitric acid production N2O 4.32 1.04 0.00Energy: Fuel combustion Residential/commercial/institutional sectors CO2 4.25 9.95 7.33Energy: Fuel combustion Manufacturing industries and construction CO2 3.76 21.85 5.42Agriculture Leaching, erosion and runoff N2O 3.41 1.17 4.71Energy: Fuel combustion Residential/commercial/institutional sectors CH4 2.66 0.01 3.74Industrial processes Cement production CO2 2.51 2.28 5.27Agriculture N2O emissions from animal production N2O 2.45 0.94 2.52Agriculture Manure management CH4 2.37 0.64 2.43Agriculture Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers N2O 2.37 0.69 4.28Waste Domestic and commercial wastewater treatment CH4 1.96 0.58 1.75Industrial processes Ammonia production CO2 1.86 0.68 0.01Energy: Fuel combustion Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing CO2 1.54 4.80 2.22Agriculture Animal manure applied to soils N2O 0.91 0.36 0.91Waste Domestic and commercial wastewater treatment N2O 0.79 0.21 0.72Agriculture Crop residue decomposition N2O 0.79 0.23 0.44Agriculture Volatilization and re-deposition of nitrogen N2O 0.71 0.25 0.88Agriculture Manure management N2O 0.65 0.34 0.66Energy: Fuel combustion Residential/commercial/institutional sectors N2O 0.52 0.03 0.74Industrial processes Ferroalloy production CO2 0.41 0.41 1.68Energy: Fuel combustion Others CO2 0.38 0.54 0.62Industrial processes Industrial gases HFC 0.19 0 0.95Waste Industrial wastewater treatment CH4 0.12 1.12 0.14Energy: Fuel combustion Transport CH4 0.05 0.03 0.05Energy: Fuel combustion Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing CH4 0.05 0.01 0.07Agriculture Agricultural field burning of agriculture residues CH4 0.05 0.02 0.03Agriculture Nitrogen-fixing crops N2O 0.04 0.01 0.04Energy: Fuel combustion Transport N2O 0.03 0.05 0.02Agriculture Agricultural field burning of agriculture residues N2O 0.03 0.01 0.03Energy: Fugitives Coal mining and handling CH4 0.02 0.56 0.02Industrial processes Lime production CO2 0.02 0.09 0.22Energy: Fuel combustion Manufacturing industries and construction CH4 0.01 0.03 0.01

 

 

34

Energy: Fuel combustion Energy industries N2O 0.01 0.03 0.01Energy: Fuel combustion Manufacturing industries and construction N2O 0.01 0.07 0.01Energy: Fuel combustion Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing N2O 0.01 0.02 0.02Agriculture Cultivation of organic soils (histosols) N2O 0.01 0.12 0.01Energy: Fuel combustion Energy industries CH4 0 0.01 0Energy: Fuel combustion Others CH4 0 0.04 0Energy: Fuel combustion Others N2O 0 0.01 0Industrial processes Iron and steel production CO2 0 6.47 0.01Industrial processes Chemical manufacturing process of coke CH4 0 0.01 0Industrial processes Caprolactam production N2O 0 0.23 0

As can be seen from Table 2.3, key sources in 2000 and 2006 were insignificantly modified compared to 1990. However, the relative importance of sources has changed. In 1990, the CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production, and the manufacturing industries, were dominant. By 2000, these subsectors had moved to the 4th and 8th places respectively, and to 6th and 7th places in 2006. The largest source in 2000 was methane emissions from natural gas transmission, when the losses were high. In 2006, the CO2 emission share from the transport subsector, and the methane emissions share from enteric fermentation and oil and gas activities, did not exceed 10% separately. Georgia’s national GHG inventory for 2000 In 2000, anthropogenic GHG emissions in Georgia were estimated as follows: 3.705.7 Gg of carbon dioxide (CO2), 256.62 Gg of methane (CH4), and 6.02 Gg of nitrous oxide (N2O). Emissions expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) amounted to 10.960 Gg CO2-eq, and emissions per capita amounted to 2.35 tonne CO2-eq. Figure 2.3 shows the main GHG emissions in CO2-eq, and the contribution of each gas to national emissions. Figure 2.4 shows emissions (CO2-eq) from various sectors, and their share in national emissions. Figures 2.5 and 2.6 show the 1990 data. It is evident that the GHG emissions in 2000 significantly decreased compared to the 1990 levels, especially for CO2 from the energy sector.

5389

3706

1866

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

CH4

CO2

N2O

Figure 2.3 GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) in Georgia in 2000.

Figure 2.4 Sectoral GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) and share in national emissions in 2000.

5926; 54% 2796;

26%

1236; 11%

Energy Agriculture

Waste Industrial Processes

10249%

 

 

35

38543

6652

2778

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

CO2

CH4

N2O

Figure 2.5 GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) in Georgia in 1990.

Figure 2.6 Sectoral GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) and share in national emissions in 1990.

According to aggregated data on anthropogenic emissions by sources, and removals by sinks, the emissions in 2000 from the energy sector amounted to 5,926.9 Gg CO2-eq, which was about 54% of national emissions. The share of each GHG in sectoral emissions is presented in Figure 2.7. A major source of CO2 emissions in the sector is the combustion of fossil fuels, in which the contributions of natural gas and liquid fuel (mainly gasoline and diesel fuel) were approximately equal, and comprised 51.7% and 46.1% respectively. The main source of CH4 emissions was fugitive emissions caused by activities related to natural gas. The emissions of N2O from the energy sector were insignificant. Emissions from energy subsectors and their share in sectoral emissions in 2000 are given in Figure 2.8.

3177

2685

62

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

CO2

CH4

N2O

Figure 2.7 GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the energy

sector in 2000.

Figure 2.8 GHG emissions from the energy subsectors and their share in sectoral emissions in 2000.

33775

2720

96

0 10000 20000 30000

CO2

CH4

N2O

Figure 2.9 GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the energy sector in 1990.

Figure 2.10. GHG emissions from the energy subsectors and their share in sectoral emissions in 1990.

Figures 2.9 and 2.10 show the 1990 data. It is evident that the emissions from the energy sector significantly decreased in 2000 compared to the 1990 levels, mainly caused by a drop in CO2 emissions.

1218234%

10531 29%

479813%

382711%

2390 7%

Electric and heat energy Manufacturing industries

Commercial / Residential Transport

Agriculture/forestry/fisheries.

2315 6% 

Oil and gas

2381 40%

1120, 19% 

976, 17%

818, 14%

415 7%

175 3%

Oil and gas TransportElectric and heat energy Commercial / ResidentialManufacturing industries Agriculture/forestry/fisheries.

36591 77%

5383; 11%

3982 8%

2017 4% 

Energy Industrial Processes

Agriculture Waste

 

 

36

In 2000, 1,002.6 Gg CO2-eq or 9.1% of national GHG emissions came from the industrial processes sector. This percentage contained CO2 emissions from metal (ferroalloys) production, mineral products (cement and lime production) and N2O emissions from chemical industry (ammonia and nitric acid production). The GHG emissions from the industrial processes sector in 2000 is shown in Figure 2.11. The emissions from industrial processes subsectors and their share in sectoral emissions in 2000 is shown in Figure 2.12. By comparing Figures 2.11 and 2.12 (based on 2000 data) with Figures 2.13 and 2.14 (based on 1990 data), it can be seen that emissions significantly declined in 2000 compared to the 1990 levels, mainly as a result of a fall in CO2 emissions from metal production.

528

474

0

0 300 600 900

CO2

N2O

CH4

Figure 2.11. GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from industrial processes in 2000.

Figure 2.12. GHG emissions from industrial processes and their share in sectoral

emission in 2000.

4884

611

4

0 1500 3000 4500 6000

CO2

N2O

CH4

Figure 2.13. GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from industrial processes in 1990.

Figure 2.14. GHG emissions from industrial processes and their share in sectoral emission in 1990.

In 2000, GHG emissions from the agriculture sector amounted to 2,795.8 Gg CO2-eq, comprising 25.5% of national emissions. Emissions from the agriculture sector consisted of CH4 and N2O. However, CO2 emissions produced in the agricultural sector by energy consumption are regarded as part of emissions from the energy sector. Sources of emissions from the agriculture sector are animal enteric fermentation, manure management, agricultural soils, and the field burning of agricultural residues. Figure 2.15 shows emissions of CH4 and N2O from the agricultural sector in 2000, and Figure 2.16 shows the emissions of the same GHGs from the agricultural subsectors, and their share in sectoral emissions. Most CH4 emissions are related to enteric fermentation, and most N2O emissions to agricultural soils.

3302 60%

1095 20%

828 15%

273 5%

Metal production Mineral products

Chemical industry Other

678 67%

279 28%

46 5%

Chemical industry Mineral products Metal production

 

 

37

1554

1243

0 500 1000 1500 2000

CH4

N2O

Figure 2.15. GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the agricultural sector in 2000.

Figure 2.16. GHG emissions from the agricultural subsectors and their share in sectoral emissions in 2000.

Figures 2.17 and 2.18 show the 1990 data. The distribution of emissions among agricultural subsectors in 2000 did not change significantly compared to the 1990 data, though a decrease in emissions took place.

2011

1972

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

CH4

N2O

Figure 2.17. GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the agricultural sector in 1990.

Figure 2.18. GHG emissions from the agriculture subsectors and their share in sectoral emissions in 1990.

GHG emissions from the Land Use, Land Use Change and the Forestry (LULUCF) sector contain total emissions produced by changes in forests, and other woody biomass stocks, emissions from forest and pasture change activities and the abandonment of managed lands, as well as emissions from soils. Net emissions from this sector in 2000 accounted for -1673.4 Gg CO2-eq, due to the difference between CO2 emissions (412.1 Gg CO2), and removals (2 085.5 Gg-CO2eq).

Figure 2.19. CO2 –eq emissions and removals (Gg) from the LULUCF sector in 2000.

In 2000, GHG emissions from the waste sector amounted to 1,236.3 Gg CO2-eq, which accounted for 11.2% of national GHG emissions. The main source was solid waste disposal on land (74.6%). Figure 2.20 shows the GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the waste sector in 2000, and Figure 2.21 shows the emissions from solid waste and wasterwater and their share in sectoral emissions in 2000.

332 12% 

1288 46%1169

42%

Enteric fermentation Manure management

Agricultural soils

470 12%

169243%

1807 45%

Enteric fermentation Manure management

Agricultural soils

412.1

2085.5

Emission Absorption

 

 

38

1150

87

0 500 1000 1500

CH4

N2O

Figure 2.20. GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the waste sector in 2000.

Figure 2.21. GHG emissions from the waste subsectors and their share in sectoral emission in 2000.

1918

100

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

CH4

N2O

Figure 2.22. GHG emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the waste sector in 1990.

Figure 2.23. GHG emissions from the waste subsectors and their share in sectoral emission in 1990.

The disposal and handling of solid and liquid waste produces GHG emissions. In the waste sector, emission sources include disposal sites of municipal solid waste, and the treatment of domestic and industrial wastewaters. In Georgia’s large cities, solid waste is being collected and transported to disposal sites. In towns and settlements, waste is being decomposed in aerated conditions, and thus methane is not produced. Figures 2.22 and 2.23 show the 1990 data. It is evident that in 2000, the emissions of CH4 declined significantly, resulting from a decrease in the amount of industrial wastewater. After a general review of emissions and trends, individual GHG emissions from different sectors are discussed below. 2.1. GHG Emissions This section discusses the contribution of each GHG (CO2, CH4 and industrial gases) to the total emissions based on the inventory from the energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste sectors. 2.1.1. Carbon dioxide (CO2) In 2000, 3,705.7 Gg CO2 were emitted into the atmosphere, accouting for 33.7% of total GHG emissions. The major emitter of CO2 was the “Fuel Combustion” subsector of the energy sector, though the following subsectors of industrial processes, “Chemical Industry”, “Mineral Products” and “Metal Production”, were also significant sources of CO2. In 2000, the relative share of the energy and industrial process sectors comprised 85.7% and 14.3%, respectively, in the total national emissions of CO2. Compared to the emission level (38,542.7 Gg CO2) in 1990,

110355% 

91545%

Solid waste Wastewater

922.11, 75% 

314.65, 25%

Solid waste Wastewater

 

 

39

the CO2 emissions in 2000 were reduced by 90.4%. This was due mainly to a sharp decline of fuel consumption in the energy sector. Figure 2.25 shows the CO2 emissions from different subsectors in 2000, while Figure 2.24 shows the 1990 data. It can be seen that the emissions from all subsectors were significantly reduced in 2000. In 2006, CO2 emissions increased especially in the fuel combustion subsector, where emissions have increased by almost 49% (Figure 2.26). Figure 2.27 shows the CO2 emissions in 1990-2006 according to sector.

Figure 2.24. CO2 emissions (Gg CO2) from different subsectors in 1990.

Figure 2.25. CO2 emissions (Gg CO2) from different subsectors in 2000.

Figure 2.26. CO2 emissions (Gg CO2) from different subsectors in 2006.

Figure 2.27. CO2 emissions from energy and industrial processes in 1990-2006.

2.1.1.1. Energy In the national inventory, CO2 emissions from the subsector “Fuel Combustion” were estimated. Four source categories have been identified: electric energy and heat production; manufacturing industries and construction; transport; and the residential and public sector. Fuel Combustion

During fuel combustion, the carbon in the fuel is almost entirely emitted in the form of CO2. The amount of carbon per unit of energy capacity in fuel varies significantly according to the fuel type. For example, coal contains much more carbon than oil or natural gas per unit of energy produced.

Gg CO 2

4730

676

209

2

0 1800 3600 5400

Fuel combustion

Mineral products 

Metal Production

Chemical Industry

Gg CO 2

3177

279

204

46

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Fuel combustion

Metal Production 

Mineral Products

Chemical Industry

Gg CO 2

33774

3302

1137

329

0 1000   3000 4000

Fuel combustion

Metal Production

Mineral products 

Chemical Industry

 

 

40

In the energy sector, 3,177.4 Gg of CO2 were emitted from fuel combustion in 2000. Fossil fuels provided 42% of total energy consumed in Georgia, while hydro and biomass (fuelwood) provided provided 18% and 40%, respectively. Fossil fuel combustion contributed 86% of total CO2 emissions. In the energy sector, natural gas and liquid fuel (mainly gasoline and diesel fuel) contributed 56% and 44% of CO2 emissions, respectively. Methodology: The simple Tier 1 method was used for the calculation of CO2 emissions from all combustion sources, which were estimated by multiplying the amount of fuel consumed by the averaged emission factors. Emission factors: Default values from the IPCC 1996 were used for carbon emission factors (carbon emission per unit of energy) and conversion co-efficients (specific heat or calorific value of fuel). However, an exception was made for natural gas, for which the CO2 emission factor was calculated according to the contents of natural gas consumed in Georgia. Activity data: Statistical Yearbooks from the State Department of Statistics, surveys by the USAID [6], and information from different facilities on the amount of consumed fuel were used as data sources. Some data were obtained from the Ministry of Energy and organizations owning thermal power plants. The data on the consumption of fuel in the country in 2000-2006 are given in Annex II. CO2 emissions produced from the combustion of fuel in different sectors of the economy are discussed below. Electric Energy and Heat Production

In 2000, 974.7 Gg CO2 were emitted into the atmosphere from electric energy and heat production in Georgia, comprising 30.7% of CO2 emissions from the energy sector, 26.3% of total CO2 emissions, and 8.9% of total national GHG emissions. CO2 emissions were mainly caused by the generation of electric energy at thermal power plants. Some enterprises and parts of the population were using diesel-generators to produce electric energy. In 2000, CO2 emissions from this source accounted for only 8.0% of the 1990 level (12,165.3 Gg CO2). Such a drastic discrepancy between 1990 and 2000 emissions is due to the fact that until 1991, Georgia’s large cities used centralized heating systems with natural gas and black oil as fuel. These systems have virtually disappeared, resulting in a drop in GHG emissions from this subsector to almost zero. At present, the major part of the population uses firewood for heating, and in large cities where natural gas is supplied, gas stoves are used. In separate organizations in large cities, such as ministries, departments and hospitals, etc.), autonomous heating systems are installed. The CO2 emissions for the period of 1990-2006) from electric energy and heat production are given in Figure 2.28. This figure shows that in the period 2002-2006, a steady growth of CO2 emissions took place, with an average increment of 170 Gg CO2 per annum.

 

 

41

Figure. 2.28 CO2 emissions in 1990-2006 from the electric

energy and heat production. Manufacturing Industries and Construction

In 2000, 413.4 Gg CO2 were emitted into the atmosphere from the manufacturing and construction industries in Georgia, accounting for 13.0% of CO2 emissions from the energy sector, 11.2% of total CO2 emissions, and 3.8% of total national GHG emissions. The CO2 emissions above accounted for just 3.9% of the 1990 level (10,481.3 Gg CO2). This sharp decrease in emissions was mainly caused by the industrial crises of that era. CO2 emissions from the manufacturing and construction industries resulted from fuel combustion in the production of iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, paper, food and other products, as well as fuel combustion in construction-related activities. The CO2 emissions from manufacturing and construction industries for the period 1990-2006 are shown in Figure 2.29.

Figure 2.29. CO2 emissions for the priod 1990-2006 (Gg CO2) from the

manufacturing and construction industries.

Transport In 2000, CO2 emissions from the transport subsector amounted to 1,111.9 Gg, accounting for 35.0% of CO2 emissions from the energy sector, 30% of total CO2 emissions, and 10.1% of national GHG emissions. The major source of CO2 emissions in this subsector was road transport, which emitted 1,052.9 Gg CO2, accounting for 94.7% of CO2 emissions from the transport subsector in 2000. In the same year, the total emissions from aviation and railways amounted to 47.9 Gg CO2, accounting for only 0.4% of national GHG emissions. The transport subsector is one of the most significant GHG emitters in Georgia. In the national GHG inventory, aviation, road transport, railway transport, and were examined in this subsector. The motor vehicles in Georgia include passenger cars, light and heavy duty trucks, mini-buses and buses, and motorcycles. Road transport predominantly uses gasoline and diesel fuel and, in smaller quantity, natural gas. In the aviation sector, the calculation of emissions is based on the statistics of consumed aviation fuel in the country. As railway transport in Georgia runs almost completely on electricity, its share of emissions is insignificant.

 

 

42

Methodology: The CO2 emissions from the transport subsector were assessed based on the statistics of fuel consumption, applying the Tier 1 (top-down) approach. This methodology was used to conduct the national GHG inventory. Emission factors: The IPCC 1996 default values were used as emission factors. Activity data: The inventory of CO2 emissions from the transport subsector was based on the initial information provided by the State Department of Statistics, Traffic Police and the Customs Department. The 1990 and 2001 energy balances and a USAID survey were also used [5, 6]. Compared with the 1990 level (3,793.4 Gg CO2), CO2 emissions from the transport subsector decreased by 70.7% in 2000. There was a decrease of 66% from road transport emissions. The fall in aviation CO2 emissions from 595.6 Gg CO2 to 24.9 Gg CO2, or by 96.4%, is especially remarkable. The trend of CO2 emissions from road transport is shown in Figure 2.30, while the CO2 emissions from aviation and railway are shown in Figure 2.31.

Figure 2.30. CO2 emissions in 1998-2006 (Gg CO2)

from road transport.

Figure 2.31. CO2 emissions (Gg CO2) from aviation and railway in 1998-2006

To verify GHG emissions from road transport, the emissions were calculated according to the Tier 3 approach using COPERT IV (Computer Programme to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport) established by the European Environment Agency, and widely used in Europe. The results can be found on the following web-page: www.climatechange.telenet.ge The inventory results were compared to the results of calculations using COPERT. The differences in CO2 emissions appeared to be insignificant, with a deviation in the range of 2-3%. Residential, commercial and public subsectors

In 2000, 467.4 Gg CO2 were emitted into the atmosphere from the residential and public subsectors of Georgia, comprising 14.7% of CO2 emissions from the energy sector, 12.6% of total CO2 emissions, and 4.3% of total national GHG emissions. The residential and public sectors are characterized by fuel consumption mainly for cooking, lighting and heating. The main source of CO2 emissions in these subsectors is natural gas; though small quantities of coal, kerosene and liquid gas were also consumed. However, the CO2 emissions from biomass combustion (mainly firewood) were excluded because biomass is regarded as carbon-neutral fuel.

5

15

25

35

1998 2000

2002 2004 2006

Railway ___ Aviation 

700

900

1100

1300

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

 

 

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In 2000, the CO2 emissions from the source above accounted for just 9.8% of the 1990 level (4775.2 Gg CO2). Figure 2.32 shows the CO2 emission dynamic in the residential and public subsectors during the period 1990-2006. The sharp decline in emissions began in 1990, and continued until 1994. Moderate to stable growth tendencies have been observed since 2000, mainly due to the rehabilitation of natural gas systems.

Figure 2.32. CO2 emissions for the period 1990-2006 (Gg CO2) from

the residential and public subsectors.

Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry In 2000, CO2 emissions from agriculture, fishery and forestry amounted to 168.7 Gg CO2 ,

comprising only 5.3% of CO2 emissions from the energy sector, 4.6% of total CO2 emissions, and 1.5% of national GHG emissions. CO2 emissions from these sources were mainly produced by fuel combustion in agricultural machinery (combines, tractors, etc.) and in mobile construction equipment. The equipment of this category belongs to off-road vehicles, and was not examined in the transport subsector. In 2000, CO2 emissions from these sources accounted for only 7.3% of the 1990 level (2,302.2 Gg CO2). Figure 2.33 shows the CO2 emissions from agriculture, fishery and forestry during the period 1990-2006. It shows that a sharp decrease in emissions began in 1990 and continued until 1996. An insignificant increase has taken place since 2000.

Figure 2.33. CO2 emissions for the period 1990-2006

from agriculture, fishery and forestry. 2.1.1.2 Industrial Processes In 2000, CO2 emissions from industrial processes in Georgia accounted for 528.3 Gg CO2,

accounting for 14.3% of the total CO2 emissions, and 4.8% of national GHG emissions. The major sources were cement, lime, ammonia and ferroalloys production. However, iron and steel production was virtually at a standstill in 2000. The industrial processes sector only accounted for GHG emissions produced as a direct consequence of industrial activity. The CO2 emissions generated from the fuel combustion required for industrial processes are attributed to the energy sector.

0

800

1600

2400

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Gg-

CO

2 

 

 

44

Methodology: The IPCC Tier 1 approach was applied to calculate the emissions from the industrial processes. Emission factors: The IPCC 1996 default emissions factors were used to estimate the emissions. Activity data: Statistical Yearbooks from the State Department of Statistics, and information obtained from the industrial facilities (including the Rustavi Nitric Acid Plant of JSC “Azot” that produces ammonia and nitric acid; the Kaspi and Rustavi Cement Plants; the Rustavi Metallurgical Plant; and the Zestaphoni Plant of Ferroalloys) were used as data sources. In 2000, CO2 emissions sharply reduced in comparison to the 1990 level (4,768.2 Gg CO2), taking into account all industrial processes. Emissions from cement production reduced by 74.8%, from ammonia production by 37.9%, from ferroalloys production by 77%, and from lime production by 93.8%. Figure 2.34 shows CO2 emissions from different industrial subsectors during the period 1990-2006.

Figure 2.34. CO2 emissions (Gg CO2) from different industrial subsectors in 1990-2006

Cement Production

In 2000, CO2 emissions from cement production in Georgia amounted to 275.9 Gg CO2 (173.5 Gg CO2 from basic cement production, and 102.4 Gg CO2 from ‘clinker’ production), accounting for 52.2% of sectoral CO2 emissions, 7.4% of total CO2 emissions, and 2.5% of national GHG emissions. In cement plants, clinker (products containing CaCO3, such as limestone, chalk, or other materials rich in calcium) - is heated in a high-temperature kiln to produce lime (CaO) and CO2

in the process of calcination. In Georgia, part of the clinker produced is used locally to produce cement and part of it is exported. The production of cement in 2000, relative to the 1990 level, fell from 1290 thousand tonnes to 348,000 tonnes, and the production of clinker fell from 892,000 tonnes to 302,000 tonnes. Since 2003, production has been rapidly increasing. Figure 2.35 shows the CO2 emissions from cement and clinker production in the period 1990-2006.

 

 

45

Figure 2.35. CO2 emissions in 1990-2006 (Gg CO2) from cement production.

Lime Production

In 2000, CO2 emissions from lime production amounted to 2.6 Gg CO2, accounting for only 0.5% of CO2 emissions from the industrial processes sector. CO2 emissions generated during the high-temperature heating of CaCO3 were estimated by multiplying the IPCC default emission factor by the amount of lime produced. Ammonia Production

In 2000, CO2 emissions from ammonia production in Georgia amounted to 204.0 Gg CO2, accounting for 38.6% of sectoral CO2 emissions, 5.5% of total CO2 emissions, and 1.9% of national GHG emissions. For the most part, ammonia in Georgia is produced under the Haber-Bosch process in which nitrogen and hydrogen react with one another; hydrogen is generated as a result of the natural gas transformation. In 2000, CO2 emissions from ammonia production accounted for 62.1% of the 1990 level (328.5 Gg CO2). CO2 emissions depend on the amount and quality of natural gas used in the process. It is assumed that the entire amount of carbon contained in the NG is fully emitted into the atmosphere. The emissions were calculated by multiplying the amount of ammonia produced by the emission factor. Figure 2.36 shows CO2 emissions from ammonia production in the period 1990-2006. In 2006 the plant only produced 1,100 tonnes of ammonia.

Figure 2.36. CO2 emissions in 1990-2006 from ammonia production.

Iron and Steel Production

In 2000, iron and steel production had virtually ceased in Georgia.

 

 

46

Iron is produced through iron ore recovery by metallurgical coke, which is oxidized in the blast furnace. The CO2 produced is emitted into the atmosphere. Part of the carbon remains in the pig iron, though, as a rule it is emitted into the atmosphere during the process of steel production. Since the main purpose of coke oxidation is the production of pig iron, these emissions are considered to be industrial. In Georgia, this industry was previously well-developed. However, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, production declined, particularly rapidly during 1990-1993. In 2000, the production of iron and steel had virtually come to a standstill. Figure 2.37 shows CO2 emissions from iron and steel production in the period 1990-2000.

Figure 2.37. CO2 emissions in 1990-2000 (Gg CO2) from iron and steel production.

Ferroalloys Production

In 2000, CO2 emissions from ferroalloys amounted to 45.6 Gg CO2, of which 10.7 Gg CO2 were from ferromanganese production, and 34.9 Gg CO2 were from silicomanganese production. During ferroalloys production, the materials that produce non-concentrated ore, coke and slag are melted together at high-temperatures. During this process the recovery reaction occurs: carbon catches oxygen from metal oxides producing CO, and ore is recovered in the form of melted metal. Further component metals combine in the mixture. In the closed electric furnace, direct emissions are composed entirely of CO. However, after some days all CO is transformed into CO2. Compared to 1990 levels (198.4 Gg CO2), CO2 emissions from ferroalloys production fell by almost 20 times in 2000. Since 1994, the emissions have varied in the range of 6.5-22.2 Gg CO2. Until 1992, silicomanganese was not produced at all. Since 2003, CO2 emissions have begun to increase sharply. In 2006, emissions had increased approximately five times relative to those in 2000. Figure 2.38 shows CO2 emissions from ferroalloys production in 1990-2006.

Figure 2.38. CO2 emissions from ferroalloys production in 1990-2006.

0

50

100

150

200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Gg-

CO

2

Ferromanganese

Silicomanganese

 

 

47

2.1.2. Methane (CH4) Atmospheric methane (CH4) is an integral component of the greenhouse effect, second only to CO2 as a contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In 2000, methane was emitted from the energy sector (subsectors: fuel combustion and fugitive emissions), agricultural sector (subsectors: enteric fermentation, manure management and agricultural residue burning) and waste sector (subsectors: solid waste disposal and wastewater treatment). In 2000, total CH4 emissions from the territory of Georgia amounted to 256.62 Gg CH4, or 5,889 Gg CO2-eq. The energy sector’s contribution to methane emissions accounted for 49.8% of the total. The agricultural and waste sectors contributed 28.8% and 21.4% respectively. In comparison with the 1990 level (316.8 Gg CH4), methane emissions decreased by 19.0%. Within this decrease, CH4 emissions from the energy sector were reduced only by 1.3%, while the emissions from the agricultural and waste sectors were reduced by 27.7% and 40.0% respectively. In 2000, the major source of CH4 emissions within the energy sector was the transmission and distribution of natural gas (88.7% of sectoral CH4 emissions). Within the agricultural sector, the major source was enteric fermentation (83% of sectoral emissions); and within the waste sector, solid waste disposal (80% of total emissions from this sector). Methane emissions from different subsectors in 1990, 2000 and 2006 are given in Figures 2.39, 2.40 and 2.41 respectively. Methane emissions more or less decreased across all subsectors in 2000. Methane emissions in the period 1990-2006 in different subsectors are shown in Figure 2.42, while the total methane emission in 1990-2006 is given in Figure 2.43.

Figure 2.39. Methane emissions (Gg CH4) from different

subsectors in 1990.

Figure 2.40. Methane emissions (Gg-CH4) from different subsectors in 2000.

113.4

61.3

43.9

14.5 

12.4 

10.9

0.3 

0  30 60 90 120 150

Energy – fugitive emissions

Agricultural Enteric f i

Waste – Solid waste

Energy – fuel combustion

Agricultural – manure management

Waste - wastewater

Agricultural - residue burning

Methane, Gg

126.6

80.6

52.5

38.8

14.7 

3.0 0.6 

0  30  60 90 120 150

Energy – fugitive emissions

Agricultural Enteric fermentation

Waste – Solid waste

Waste -wastewater

Agricultural – manure management

Energy – fuel combustion

Agricultural - residue burning

Methane, Gg CH4  

 

 

48

Figure 2.41. Methane emissions (Gg CH4) from different subsectors in 2006.

Figure 2.42. Sectoral methane emissions (Gg CH4) in 1990-2006.

Figure 2.43. Total methane emissions (Gg CH4) in 1990-2006.

A sharp annual variation in methane emissions from the energy sector was mainly caused by a variation in the amount of transported natural gas. The variations since 2001 were attributed to a reduction of losses due to the gradual abatement of leakages. In the agricultural and waste sectors, the variations of emissions were smaller. 2.1.2.1. Energy In 2000, methane emissions from the energy sector amounted to 127.88 Gg CH4, accounting for 49.8% of total methane emissions, and 25.4% of total GHG emissions. Methane emissions in the energy sector came from two subsectors: fuel combustion and fugitive emissions. Fuel combustion

In 2000, fuel combustion in the energy sector resulted in 14.5 Gg of CH4 emissions, accounting for 11.3% of CH4 emissions from the energy sector, 5.6% of the total CH4 emissions, and 2.8% of total GHG emissions. In this source category, methane is produced by the incomplete burning of fuel in stationary and mobile sources. The amount of methane emissions depends on the type of fuel, combustion technology and other factors. Methodology: Calculations were based on IPCC Tier 1 methodology.

69.7

57.2

43.8

22.6

14.2

11.1

0.3

0 30 60 90 120 150

Agricultural Enteric fermentation

Energy – fugitive emissions

Waste – Solid waste

Energy – fuel combustion

Agricultural – manure management

Waste - wastewater 

Agricultural - residue burning

Methane, Gg CH4

 

 

49

Emission factors: IPCC 1996 default values of emission factors were used. Activity data: Data on the amount of consumed fuel are the same as the data used for the calculation of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (see Annex II). Methane emissions from fuel combustion during 2000-2006 are given in Figure 2.44.

0

10

20

30

2000 2002 2004 2006

Figure 2.44. Methane emissions from fuel combustion (Gg-CH4) in 2000-2006.

Fugitive Emissions In the national GHG inventory, fugitive emissions from the energy sector include the source categories “Methane emissions from coal mining and post-mining activities” and “Methane emissions from oil and natural gas activities”. In this subsector, the major sources of CH4 emissions were natural gas transmission and distribution. Emissions from oil activities are very insignificant, and accounted for only 0.1 Gg CH4 in 2000. Coal mining In 2000, CH4 emissions from coal mining amounted to just 0.09 Gg CH4, accounting for 0.03% of CH4 emissions from the energy sector. Coal extraction from underground mines in Georgia has been well-developed in the past. Since 1992, coal mining has sharply declined, and after 1996 it virtually stopped. The main reason for this was the inefficiency of mining activities and the impossibility of the state subsidising the sector due to the economic crisis. Methodology: The IPCC Tier 1 approach based on the Global Average Method (GAM) was used for calculations. Emission factors: IPCC 1996 default values of emission factors were applied. Activity data: The data source is the State Department of Statistics (see Annex II). In 2000, methane emissions from coal mining accounted for only 0.7% of the 1990 level (12.78 Gg CH4). Figure 2.45 shows CH4 emissions from coal mining and treatment in 1990-2006.

 

 

50

Figure 2.45. Methane emissions (Gg CH4) from

coal mining and treatment in 1990-2006 Natural Gas Production

In 2000, CH4 emissions from natural gas production amounted to 1.05 Gg CH4, accounting for 0.08% of CH4 emissions from the energy sector, 0.4% of total CH4 emissions, and 0.2% of national GHG emissions. Until 1980, a certain amount of natural gas was produced in Georgia. After this, production has drastically declined due to the exhaustion of deposits, and in 1997-1999 it stopped completely. Production resumed in 2000, but in subsequent years it dropped again. Methodology: To calculate the methane emissions from this source, the Tier 1 approach was used, based on the aggregated emission factors relevant to production and data on the amounts of gas produced. Emission Factors: The emission factors recommended by the IPCC 1996 for the countries of the former Soviet Union were used. Activity Data: The data source is the State Department of Statistics. In 2000, methane emissions from this source exceeded the 1990 level by 36.4% (0.77 Gg CH4). Figure 2.46 shows the methane emissions from natural gas production in 1990-2006.

Figure 2.46: Methane emissions (Gg CH4) from

the natural gas production in 1990-2006. Transmission and Distribution of Natural Gas

In 2000, 112.25 Gg CH4 were emitted from the transmission and distribution of natural gas, accounting for 87.8% of CH4 emissions from the energy sector, 43.7% of total CH4 emissions, and 21.5% of national GHG emissions. Georgia was supplied with natural gas imported from Russia through its main gas pipelines. Until the collapse of the Soviet Union, the price of gas was much lower than the world market price, and the economic losses were huge. This situation has changed drastically since Georgia’s

 

 

51

declaration of independence. Gas providers have brought prices nearer to world market values. In view of the deep economic crisis of that time, Georgia was not able to pay the costs entirely and on time, which resulted in an abrupt reduction of supplied gas. The improvement of the economic situation has resulted in increased gas deliveries, and thus a decreased commercial losses. Due to the lack of means required for the rehabilitation of depreciated main gas pipelines and gas distribution networks, the losses of gas were immensely high. Methane emissions from natural gas systems occur during both normal functioning regimes and maintenance and repair work. In Georgia, emissions are high due to the faultiness and frequent damage of transportation and distribution pipelines. Methodology: To estimate methane emissions from this source category, the Tier 1 methodology was applied, based on data on transmitted and distributed gas quantities and default emission factors. Emission factors: To calculate the emissions in 1990-1996, an emission factor recommended by the IPCC 1996 for countries of the former Soviet Union was used, and during 1997-2006, emission factors were assessed according to information on gas leakages obtained from the Georgian Gas Transmission International Company (GGTIC). Activity data: The data sources on transmitted and delivered consumer gas are the GGTIC and the Statistical Yearbooks of the State Department of Statistics. In 2000, methane emissions from the transmission and distribution of natural gas were approximately the same as the 1990 level (112.94 Gg CH4). Figure 2.47 shows the methane emissions from natural gas transmission and distribution in 1990-2006. The reduction in emissions since 2000 has been mainly due to a decrease in leakages, as a result of gas pipeline rehabilitation, and variations in the amount of transmitted gas. In 2000, natural gas losses accounted for 6.78%. After the rehabilitation of pipelines, and improvements in accounting, losses decreased to 3.44% in 2006.

Figure 2.47. Methane emissions (Gg CH4) from natural gas transmission

and distribution in 1990-2006 2.1.2.2. Agriculture In 2000, methane emissions from the agricultural sector amounted to 73.98 Gg CH4, accounting for 28.8% of total CH4 emissions, and 14.1% of total GHG emissions. In the agricultural sector, methane emissions came from the subsectors of enteric fermentation, manure management and the field burning of agricultural residues.

 

 

52

Enteric fermentation The subsector “enteric fermentation” in the national inventory is comprised of cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, horses and swine. The cattle are divided into two groups: dairy and non-dairy (calf, bull calf, and bull). Methane emissions from enteric fermentation were calculated using two methodological approaches: IPCC Tier 1 and IPCC Tier 2. Tier 1 approach In 2000, methane emissions from enteric fermentation amounted to 61.33 Gg CH4, accounting for 82.9% of CH4 emissions from the agricultural sector, 23.9% of total CH4 emissions and 11.7% of national GHG emissions. The major source of CH4 emissions in these subsectors was cattle (55.22 Gg CH4), which contributed to 90% and 21.5% of total methane emissions in this subsector. Methodology: The IPCC Tier 1 simplified approach was used based on the IPCC default values of emission factors. In accordance with Tier 1, the amount of methane produced by the animal population was calculated as an emission per animal, and multiplied by the number of animals. Emission factors: Emission factors for dairy and non-dairy cattle are taken as the default values for the Asian region, as the animal parameters and habitat conditions in Asia best match Georgia’s conditions (i.e., cattle graze predominantly in pastures and more rarely, in confined areas, mainly in winter; and the animals are of a relatively small size and have multifunctional purposes). For other animals, emission factors were taken as the default values attributed to developing countries with temperate climates. Activity data: The source of information is the State Statistics Yearbooks. Georgia’s livestock headcount in 1990-2006 are shown in Figure 2.48.

Figure 2.48 Livestock headcount (1000 hands) in Georgia in 1990-2006 Figure 2.48 shows that since 1990, the number of dairy cattle has significantly decreased. This can be explained by the elimination of large state farms. However, since 1994, the process has been reversed, mainly as a result of increased demand in the population for dairy products. The number of non-dairy cattle decreased until 1994, due to the rising demand for locally produced beef under restrictions on the importing of this product. After 1994, the situation stabilized.

 

 

53

The decrease in the number of sheep continued until 1998. The main reasons for this decrease were a fall in the demand for wool, as well as the impossibility of driving sheep into winter pastures in neighbouring Daghestan. In 2000, methane emissions from enteric fermentation accounted for 76.1% of the 1990 level (80.59 Gg CH4). Figure 2.49 shows the total CH4 emissions during the period 1990-2006. It also shows emissions from cattle as the major source in this subsector. The main reason for the CH4

emissions decline in 1991-1994 was the decrease in the number of animals, caused by the economic collapse and the abolition of state farms.

Figure 2.49 Methane emissions (Gg CH4) in 1990-2006 from

enteric fermentation subsectors and the cattle. Tier 2 approach Methodology: In the case where enteric fermentation represents a key source of emissions, the “IPCC GPG and Uncertainty Management in National GHG Inventories” [4] recommends using the Tier 2 approach for the category of animals, which makes up a major input in methane emissions from enteric fermentation. In 1990-2006, the contribution of methane emissions from cattle to total emissions from enteric fermentation, varied in the range of 84-90%. Accordingly, for this source category, the “Tier 2” methodological approach was applied. Tier 2 represents a more complex approach, which demands detailed information on animal food, forms of taking food, and, most importantly, on the features of the livestock (kind, weight, yield of milk, birth rate, etc.) in the country. Emission factors: Emission factors were calculated for each age category of animals using data on livestock weight, growth norms, yields of milk, and other parameters of major kinds of cattle, required by the IPCC methodology. Methane emissions from enteric fermentation were calculated multiplying the number of cattle groups (according to kind and age) by the relevant emission factors, and by a summing up of obtained emissions. Activity data: Based on the above mentioned statistical information, the distribution in 1990-2006 of cattle in Georgia was estimated according to the main wide-spread kinds. To establish the distribution of cattle by age groups, a model was constructed, founded upon the characteristic features of the main kinds (birth rate, age of first lactation and of maturity, etc.). Model parameters were selected in maximum proximity to the actual status. This model provided the balance of heads of livestock from year to year.

 

 

54

In 2000, methane emissions from enteric fermentation, calculated using Tier 2 methodology (54.09 Gg CH4) appeared to be about 12% less than the value obtained under the Tier 1 approach (61.33 Gg CH4). Figure 2.50 compares methane emissions calculated for 1990-2006, under both Tier 1 and Tier 2 methodologies. It can be seen that calculations under the Tier 2 approach result in lower emissions. This difference is caused by a variation in the age structure of the livestock. Since 1992, the difference between emissions calculated by both approaches varies in the range of 10-13%.

Figure 2.50. Methane emissions (Gg CH4) in 1990-2006 from enteric fermentation calculated

under Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches. Manure management

In 2000, the methane emissions from the manure management subsector accounted for 12.4 Gg CH4, accounting for 16.8% of CH4 emissions from the agricultural sector, 4.8% of total CH4 emissions, and 2.4% of national GHG emissions. During the storage and treatment of manure, CH4 and N2O are produced. The emission of these gases depends on the kind and amount of manure and its management system. In badly aerated systems, the production of methane is usually higher, and that of nitrous oxide is lower. Under good aeration, however, less CH4 and more N2O are produced. After extraction, manure quickly starts to decompose. Under conditions of limited mixing with oxygen, decomposition is predominantly anaerobic, causing the production of methane. The amount of methane depends on the quantity of manure, the type of waste management system and the level of aeration. Methodology: Methane emissions from manure management were calculated under the IPCC Tier 1 methodology, based on the simplified approach using default values of emission factors. In accordance with IPCC 1996, the Tier 1 methodology in most countries provides fully acceptable accuracy for many types of livestock. Emission factors: For cattle (dairy and non-dairy), buffalo, swine and poultry, emission factors typical for Asian regions with a temperate climate were used. For other types of animals, default values for developing countries with a temperate climate were used. Activity data: Data on the livestock are the same as those used in the enteric fermentation subsector. In 2000, methane emissions amounted to 12.5 Gg CH4, accounting for 85% of the 1990 level (14.71 Gg CH4). Figure 2.51 shows the methane emissions from this subsector in 1990-2006.

 

 

55

A fall in emissions compared to the 1990 level was caused by a decrease in heads of livestock, especially manifest in 1991-1994. In the following years, emissions grew at an approximately steady rate.

Figure 2.51: Methane emissions (Gg CH4) from the manure management

subsector, 1990-2006

Field burning of agricultural residues Burning of agricultural residues is not a source of CO2, as the carbon emitted into the atmosphere in the process of burning is again absorbed by the vegetation in the following vegetation period. During the burning of harvest residues CH4 and N2O are being released. Emissions of these two gases accompanying the burning of agricultural residues are insignificant and do not represent key sources for Georgia. In 2000, methane emissions from this subsector were equal to 0.25 Gg CH4, making up only 0.3% of methane total emissions from the Agriculture sector. In other years the picture is the same. For example in 1990, methane emissions comprised 0.45 Gg CH4, accounting for 0.5% of sectoral emissions. 2.1.2.3. Waste In this sector, methane emissions from two subsectors are examined: solid waste disposal on land and wastewater handling. Solid waste disposal

In 2000, methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites amounted to 43.91 Gg CH4, making up 80.2% of the 1990 level, 17.1% of CH4 total emissions, and 8.4% of GHGs national emissions. Its share in the total CH4 emissions from the country varies from year to year, in the range of 2-11%. In Georgian cities, municipal waste is collected and transported to landfills. Unfortunately, there is no precise information on the amount and composition of solid waste. In rural settlements the collection and dumping of waste is not practiced. As the waste is scattered, there are no conditions for anaerobic decomposition and therefore methane is not actually generated. At present there are about 80 registered landfills. Of them, 2 landfills of Georgia’s capital Tbilisi can be regarded as managed solid waste disposal sites. The third municipal landfill of Tbilisi was closed in 2003. In other large and medium-sized cities of the country, waste disposal sites are unmanaged.

 

 

56

In view of the fact that it appeared practically impossible to establish accurately when and in what quantity the population of Tbilisi took away solid waste before the opening of the above mentioned landfills, it is assumed that since 1961 waste has been taken away to the hypothetical disposal site #1. Due to the absence of information about landfills in small towns and settlements, it has been assumed that since 1980 wastes were taken away to the hypothetic disposal site #2. Methane emissions from the solid waste disposal subsector have been calculated using two methodological approaches: IPCC Tier 1 and IPCC Tier 2. Default method (Tier 1 approach) Methodology: To determine methane emissions from Georgian landfills initially, the “Default method” (Tier 1 methodological approach) was used, based on the assumption that the entire amount of decomposable organic carbon existing in the waste was entirely decayed (or the potential methane was totally emitted) within the year of taking away the waste to the disposal site. Emission factors: Values of parameters required for the calculation of emission factors were selected according to IPCC GPG [4] recommendations. Activity data: Initial information on the amount of solid waste is based upon the relevant data for Tbilisi (including hypothetical disposal site # 1), other big cities (Kutaisi, Batumi, Zugdidi, Rustavi, Poti, and Gori) and small towns (hypothetical disposal site # 2). Population data for cities were taken from Department of Statistics yearbooks. Methane emissions trends in 1990-2006 from solid waste disposal sites in Georgia, calculated under the Tier 1 approach (red curve) are given in Figure 2.52. In 2000, methane emissions from this subsector made up about 84% of the 1990 level (52.51 Gg CH4). Emissions trends virtually duplicate population trends, as shown in Figure 2.53.

Figure 2.52. Methane emissions (Gg CH4) from solid waste disposal sites, 1990-2006

Figure 2.53. Population (thousands) sending waste to landfills, 1990-2006

First order decay method (Tier 2 approach) The default method provides for the reliable estimation of existing annual emissions, if the amount of taken-away waste, and its composition, is constant or slowly changing over a period of some decades. If the waste disposal period is less than 3-4 decades, the IPCC default method does not provide the CH4 emissions values with adequate accuracy. For this reason, calculations

 

 

57

have been conducted for 1990-2006 applying the first order decay (FOD) method. The same activity data were used as for the Tier 1 case. Results are given in Figure 2.52 (blue curve). Wastewater handling

In 2000, methane emissions from wastewater handling comprised 10.85 Gg CH4, making up 19.8% of CH4 emissions from the Waste sector, 4.2% of total CH4 emissions and 2.1% of national GHG emissions.  

Wastewater is generated by a variety of sources. Domestic and commercial wastewater contains sewage water from kitchens, bathrooms, etc. The sources of industrial wastewater are different branches of industry, such as the food processing industry, paper and pulp production, etc. Methodology: To assess methane emissions from the wastewater handling subsector, the default IPCC methodology has been used, and the default values of parameters have been applied for both residential and industrial wastewater. Emission factors: Default values recommended by the IPCC GPG for different branches of industry were used. The parameters required for calculating the methane emissions from domestic wastewater were determined according to default values, recommended by the IPCC 1996 and IPCC GPG for the republics of the former Soviet Union. Activity data: Data on the volume of production from local facilities were used in performing the calculations. Our sources of information were statistical yearbooks of the Department of Statistics and data obtained from different local enterprises. In 2000, methane emissions from residential wastewater equalled 10.24 Gg CH4, and from industrial wastewater – 0.61 Gg CH4. In 1990, the corresponding values amounted to 13.30 Gg CH4, and 25.50 Gg CH4. The sharp reduction in methane emissions from industrial wastewater in 2000, compared to the 1990 level, can be explained by the fall in industrial production. Figure 2.54 demonstrates methane emissions from wastewater handling in 1998-2006.

Figure 2.54. Methane emissions from wastewater handling, 1998-2006 

2.1.3. Nitrous oxide (N2O) Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas generated as a result of both natural processes and anthropogenic activity in the Energy, Agriculture, Industrial processes, and Waste sectors.

 

 

58

In 2000, emissions of N2O in Georgia made up 6.04 Gg N2O, comprising 17% of GHGs national emissions.  

In 2000, N2O was emitted from the Energy sector (fuel combustion subsector), the Industrial processes sector (“Chemical Production” subsector, source category Production of Nitric Acid), the Agriculture sector (subsectors: manure management, field burning of agricultural residues and emission from agricultural soils subsector source categories: direct and indirect emissions from soils and animal production), and from the Waste sector (subsector “wastewater”, source category human sewage water). In 2000, the main share of N2O emissions was made by the Agriculture (66.7%) and Industrial processes (25.2%) sectors. The share of emissions coming from the Energy and Waste sectors were relatively insignificant – correspondingly 3.4% and 4.6%. In Figures 2.55-2.58, emissions of N2O are shown from different sources in 1990, 2000, and 2006. In 2000, emissions of N2O were equal to 67.3% of the 1990 level, and emissions were reduced from all sources. In Figure 2.57, N2O emissions trends from different sectors in 1990-2006 are given. This figure shows that N2O emissions fell drastically in 1990-1995, and that since 2000 they have begun to increase smoothly. An exception is in the Agriculture sector in 2004 and in Industrial processes in 2006.

Figure 2.55. Emissions of nitrous oxide (Gg N2O) from different sources, 1990

Figure 2.56. Emissions of nitrous oxide (Gg N2O) from different sources, 2000

Figure 2.57. Emissions of nitrous oxide (Gg N2O) from different sources, 2006

Figure 2.58. Trends of nitrous oxide emissions from different sectors, 1990-2006

2.34

2.21

1.00

0.32

0.29

0.26

0.07

0.01

0.0 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4

Direct emissions

Indirect emissions

Animal production

Fuel combustionSewage water

Manure management

Nitric Acid production

Other

 

 

59

2.1.3.1 Energy Emissions of N2O from the Energy sector took place in the “Fuel Combustion” subsector. N2O is produced as a result of the reaction between nitrogen and oxygen during the combustion of fuel in stationary and mobile sources. Stationary sources of N2O emissions are from the production of electric and heat energy, the manufacturing industries, construction, and others. Mobile sources of N2O emissions include road transport, civil aviation, and railway transport. The amount of N2O emissions from all sources depends on fuel type, combustion technology, and other factors. Methodology: Calculations were based upon the IPCC Tier 1 approach. Emission factors: The IPCC 1996 default emissions factors were used. Activity data: Data on the amount of consumed fuel are the same as the data used to calculate CO2 emissions from the fuel combustion. In 2000, an insignificant amount of N2O (0.21 Gg N2O) was emitted from fuel combustion in the Energy sector, making up 3.4% of N2O total emissions, and only 0.6% of the total national emissions. 2.1.3.2. Industrial processes In 2000, emissions of N2O from the production of nitric acid in Georgia amounted to 1.53 Gg N2O, equalling 25.3% of N2O total emissions, and 4.3% of national GHG emissions. In 2000, according to the National GHG Inventory, the only source of N2O emissions from the Industrial processes was the production of nitric acid (HNO3). This acid is an organic compound, mainly used to produce synthetic fertilizers. HNO3 is produced as a result of the catalytic oxidation of ammonia at high temperatures during which N2O is generated as a byproduct. The amount of N2O produced is proportional to the amount of ammonia used. The concentration of N2O in emitted cases depends upon the production technology and the emission control level. Methodology: As there is no data on N2O concentration measurements in Georgia, the calculation of emissions in the country were carried out on the basis of nitric acid production data, and the IPCC 1996 emission coefficient relevant to the existing technology. Emission factor: The JSC “Azot” in Rustavi applies so called low-pressure technology to produce nitric acid. Hence, the IPCC 1996 default value of emission factors relevant to this kind of technology was used in the calculations. Activity data: The sources for activity data are the Department of Statistics, and JSC “Azot”. In 2000, emissions of N2O from nitric acid production was slightly lower compared to the 1990 level (1.61 Gg N2O). Figure 2.59 shows the trend of N2O emissions in 1990-2006. A sharp variation in annual emissions was caused by the unsteadiness of nitric acid production. Up until 1996, the JSC “Azot” had produced Caprolactam as well.

 

 

60

Figure 2.59. N2O emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the production of nitric acid

and Caprolactam, 1990-2006

2.1.3.3 Agriculture In 2000, emissions of N2O from the Agriculture sector amounted to 4.03 Gg N2O equalling 66.7% of the N2O total emissions, and 11.4% of national GHG emissions. N2O emissions from the Agriculture sector include emissions from agricultural soils (source categories: direct and indirect emissions from soils, and emissions from animal production), as well as emissions from manure management and the field burning of agricultural residues. Emissions from manure management make up 0.23 Gg N2O (5.7% of sectoral emissions), direct emissions from soils 1.46 Gg N2O (36.2%), indirect emissions from soils 1.46 Gg N2O (36.2%), from animal production 0.87 Gg N2O (21.6%), and from burning of residues only 0.01 Gg N2O (0.2%). In 2000, emissions of N2O from Agriculture decreased by 36.6%, relative to the 1990 level (6.36 Gg N2O). Figure 2.60 shows the trends during 1990-2006 of N2O emissions. Since 2000, emissions of N2O have been increasing, with the exception of 2004, when the level of synthetic nitrous fertilizer consumption was low compared to other years.

Figure 2.60 Trend of N2O emissions from the Agriculture sector, 1990-2006

Manure management

In 2000, emissions of N2O from manure management made up 0.23 Gg N2O, comprising 5.7% of N2O emissions from the Agriculture sector, 3.8% of total N2O emissions, and 0.6% of national GHG emissions. During the process of manure storing and management, a part of the contained nitrogen is transformed into nitrous oxide as a result of nitrification and denitrification. Manure management systems are important regulation factors for N2O emissions. In this subsector, the emission of N2O is examined for a number of management systems (anaerobic lagoons, liquid

 

 

61

systems, solid storage and dry lot, and stalls and other systems), for manure introduction into agricultural soils (e.g. daily dispersion), and is regarded as the source of N2O direct emissions from agricultural soils. Methodology: Emissions of N2O from manure management were estimated according to the 1996 IPCC Tier 1 approach. Emissions from each category of animals were calculated by multiplying the number of animals by the average level of nitrogen emission for each animal category, and their share of “Digestible Nitrogen” relevant to types of manure management systems used. Emission factors: The IPCC default values were taken for emission factors and other parameters. In 2000, N2O emissions from manure management made up about 44% of the 1990 level (0.52 Gg N2O). Figure 2.61 shows emissions of N2O from the manure management subsector in 1990-2006. Since 2000, emissions have not been increasing significantly.

Figure 2.61. Trend of N2O emissions from the manure management

subsector, 1990-2006 Emissions from soils

This source category is the largest among N2O emission sources from agriculture soils. In 2000, emissions of N2O from soils amounted to 3.79 Gg N2O, making up 94% of N2O emissions from the Agriculture sector, about 63% of total N2O emissions and 10.7% of national GHG emissions. Agricultural soils represent both direct and indirect sources of N2O. Direct source means the emission of N2O takes place directly from the soil. These emissions are produced by the introduction into the soil of nitrous-containing synthetic fertilizers and manure, the biological fixing of nitrogen, and the production of nitrogen as a result of harvest residues mineralisation, and the mineralisation of nitrogen during the cultivation of organic peat-containing soils. Emissions of N2O from indirect sources are produced by the volatilisation of nitrogen contained in synthetic fertilizers and manure and leaching, as well as resulting from erosion and washing off. Direct emissions from soils

In 2000, direct emission from soils made up 1.46 Gg N2O, comprising 36.2% of N2O emissions from the Agriculture sector, 24.1% of N2O total emissions, and 4.1% of national GHG emissions. The dominant sources of direct emissions of N2O from soils were N2O emissions from the introduction of synthetic nitrous fertilizers, their share of which in 2000 was 57.5%. During the application of synthetic fertilizers, huge amounts of nitrogen are introduced into the soil. This additional nitrogen is nitrified and denitrified, as a result of which N2O is released. The

0.15

0.25

0.35

0.45

0.55

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

 

 

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amount of N2O emissions depends on the quantity of applied nitrous fertilizers and their type, the kind of vegetation and soil, and on the climate and other factors. Introducing nitrogen to the soil as a result of the application of manure could increase the level of nitrification/denitrification and enhance the N2O emissions from agricultural soils. Nitrogen absorbed from the atmosphere by nitrogen-fixing crops can undergo nitrification and denitrification in a similar way to nitrogen brought into the soil from synthetic fertilizers. After harvesting, part of the yield decomposes in the field. The remaining mass of vegetation represents a source of nitrogen for further processes of nitrification and denitrification, and therefore produces N2O. The cultivation of peat-containing organic soils usually includes draining to lower the level of underground waters, and to increase aeration, thus accelerating the decay of organic matter. In the process, nitrification and denitrification also takes place, resulting in N2O emissions. Methodology: The IPCC Tier 1 methodological approach was applied to estimate the N2O direct emissions from the soil. Emission factors: IPCC default values of emission factors and other parameters were used to perform these calculations. Activity data: Statistical yearbooks of the Department of Statistics were used as a data source.  

In 2000, direct emissions of N2O from soils were 67.3% of the 1990 level (2.17 Gg N2O). Figure 2.62 shows the trend of N2O direct emissions from the soil in 1990-2006, by major source (other sources are insignificant).

Figure 2.62. Trend of direct emissions of N2O (Gg N2O) from soil, 1990-2006

Indirect emissions from soil

In 2000, indirect emissions from soil accounted for 1.46 Gg N2O, making up 36.2% of N2O emissions from the Agriculture sector, and about 24% of total N2O emissions, and 4.1% of national GHG emissions. After the introduction of synthetic fertilizers and manure into arable land, part of the nitrogen is lost as a result of volatilisation in the form of ammonia (NH3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The volatilised nitrogen can sediment again in other places and undergo transformation, resulting in the production of N2O. The quantity of volatilised nitrogen depends on the type of fertilizer, the

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Nitric fertilizers Manure application

Deciduous residues Organic soils

 

 

 

63

level of fertilizer application, the method and time, as well as on soil structure, precipitation and other factors. When the nitrogen contained in synthetic fertilizer or manure is applied to ploughed soil, part of the nitrogen is lost as a result of leaching, erosion and washing off. Losses of nitrogen depend on the methodology, time and rate of nitrogen application, kind of vegetation, soil structure, run-off, landscape, etc. This lost nitrogen can subsequently undergo transformation and hence produce N2O away from the place of application. Methodology: The IPCC 1996 Tier 1 approach was used to calculate N2O indirect emissions, both through volatilisation and repeated sedimentation from synthetic fertilizers and manure applied to the soil, and as a result of leaching, erosion and washing off. Emission factors: The IPCC 1996 default values were used as emission factors. It was assumed that the amount of volatilised nitrogen is equal to 10% of the applied nitric fertilizer, and 20% of the applied manure, and that 30% of nitrogen used a fertilizer was lost as a result of leaching, erosion and runoff. In 2000, indirect emissions of N2O from soils made up 66.4% of the 1990 level (2.20 Gg N2O). Figure 2.63 shows the trend of indirect emissions of N2O from soils in 1990-2006.

Figure 2.63. Indirect emissions of N2O (Gg) from soils, 1990-2006

Emissions from animal production

In 2000, emissions from annual production accounted for 0.87 Gg N2O, making up 21.6% of N2O emissions from the Agriculture sector, about 14.4% of total N2O emissions, and 2.5% of national GHG emissions. In this subsector, N2O emissions were examined from manure excreted on the soil by grazing animals (pastures and paddock). When manure is excreted from grazing animals on pasture and paddock, nitrogen in the manure undergoes ammonification, nitrification and denitrification. During these transformation processes N2O is produced. Methodology: The emissions manure excreted by grazing animals was calculated using the IPCC 1996 Tier 1 approach. Emissions were calculated for each animal category by multiplying the animal population by the appropriate nitrogen excretion rate, and by the fraction of manure nitrogen available for conversion to N2O.  

 

 

64

Emission factors: The IPCC default values were used for emission factors and other parameters. Activity data: Statistics yearbooks of the Department of Statistics were used as a data source. In 2000, emissions of N2O from animal production amounted to 59.6% of the 1990 emissions level (1.46 Gg N2O). Figure 2.64 demonstrates trends of N2O emissions from animal production in 1990-2006.

Figure 2.64. Trend of N2O emissions (Gg) from animal production, 1990-2006

Field burning of agricultural production in 1990-2006 The share of N2O emissions from field burning of crop residues is very insignificant. In 2000 these emissions made up only 0.01 Gg N2O, or 3.1 Gg CO2 eq.  2.1.3.4. Waste The only source of N2O emissions from the Waste sector was nitrification and denitrification of nitrogen contained in sewage wastewater. Emissions of N2O from sewage wastewater were calculated according to FAO data on per-capita consumption of protein and population data. In 2000, emissions of N2O from this source were equal to 0.28 Gg N2O, making up 87.5% of the 1990 level (0.32 Gg N2O). The fall in emissions was caused by a decrease in the population. Emissions of N2O from sewage water made up 4.6% of total N2O emissions, and 0.8% of total national emissions. Figure 2.65 shows trends of N2O emissions from sewage wastewater in 1990-2006.

Figure 2.65. Dynamics of N2O emissions (Gg) from sewage wastewater, 1990-2006.

2.1.4. Industrial Gases In 2000, industrial gases (hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)) were not produced in Georgia, and are not produced currently. Only some of them (in the role of cooling agents) are imported into the country to substitute for ozone-depleting substances in refrigerators.

0.20

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0.40

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

 

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0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

 

 

 

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The imported cooling agents are tetrafluoroethane (HFC-134a) and mixes of industrial gases: HFC-404a = 44% pentafluoroethane (HFC-125) + 52% triflouroethane (HFC-143a) + 4% tetrafluoroethane (HFC-134a); HFC-407c = 23% difluoromethane (HFC-32) + 25% pentafluoroethane (HFC-125) + 52% tetrafluoroethane (HFC-134a). Industrial gases are loaded into imported refrigerators, air conditioning devices and other equipment, and through their leakages, emissions into the atmosphere are taking place. Table 2.3 demonstrates the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of industrial gases applied in the country. For R-404a and R-407c the GWP is calculated according to their contents.

Table 2.3. Global Warming Potential of industrial gases used in Georgia

Gas Name Formula GGWP HFC-32 Difluoroethane CH2F2 650 HFC-125 Pentafluoroethane C2HF5 2,800 HFC-134a Tetrafluoroethane C2H2F4 1,300 HFC-143a Triflouroethane C2H3F3 3,800 R-404a Mix HFC-125 (44%)

HFC-143a (52%) HFC-134a (4%)

3,260

R-407c Mix HFC-32 (23%) HFC-125 (25%) HFC-134a (52%)

1,525

The 2000 inventory in Georgia comprises emissions of HFCs in the industrial gases subsector, from domestic, commercial and industrial refrigerators. Information required to determine emissions from other sources does not exist. Data on agents loaded into the imported air conditioners imported to the country have existed only since 2000. Methodology: The IPCC Tier 2 approach was used in calculations. The values of losses resulting from leakages are taken into account according to IPCC recommendations. Emission factors: The IPCC 1996 default values were used as emission factors. Activity data: Information on cooling agents imported into the country, as well as on cooling agents contained in appliances, by type and amount, were used. In the case of domestic refrigerators it was assumed that 1% of the initially loaded cooling agent was emitted annually into the atmosphere, as a result of leakage. The import of HFC-134a cooling agents contained in refrigerators began in Georgia in 1998, and has been growing. In 2000, only 5 tonnes of CO2-eq were emitted into the atmosphere, and in 2006 141 tonnes CO2-eq were emitted. The import of other types of refrigeration devices (commercial and industrial) has been taking place since 1995, first of refrigerators using HFC-404a as a cooling agent and then, since 2005, refrigerators containing HFC-134a. It was assumed during the calculations that the average annual losses resulting from leakages made up 2% of the loaded cooling agents. In 2000, the

 

 

66

emissions equalled 21.0 Gg CO2-eq, or virtually 100% of industrial gases emissions from this source. Figure 2.66 shows the trend of industrial gases emissions (Gg CO2-eq) in 2000-2006.

Figure 2.66. Trend of industrial gases emissions (Gg CO2-eq), 2000-2006

2.1.5. Other GHGs and SO2

In 2000, emissions of indirect GHGs in Georgia made up 24.2 Gg of nitrous oxides (NOx), 338.3 Gg of carbon monoxide (CO), and 47.0 Gg of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). In 2000, a small amount of sulphur-containing fuel was consumed in Georgia; 15 thousand tonnes of black oil, and 27 thousand tonnes of coal. Correspondingly, emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) were small and amounted to only 1.2 Gg SO2. Methodology: The IPCC Tier 1 methodological approach was applied, which calculates emissions by multiplying the amount of consumed fuel or generated product by the relevant emission factor. Emission factors: Default values from the IPCC 1996 were used as emission factors.  

Activity data: Activity data are the same as that used for the calculation of direct GHG emissions.  

As compared to the 1990 level, emissions of NOx decreased by 48.2%, of SO2 by 35.8% and of NMVOCs by 63.7%. Figure 2.67 shows the trend of indirect GHG emissions in 2000-2006.

Figure 2.67. Trend of indirect GHG emissions, 2000-2006

0

40

80

120

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

0

2

4

6

8 -

Refrigeratos Air conditions

Ref

rige

rato

s, A

ir conditions

0

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200

300

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0

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30

40

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NMVOC CO NOx

Gg-

CO

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– Gg-N

Ox

 

 

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2.2. Sectoral emissions of GHGs In 2000, GHG emissions by sector in Georgia were distributed as follows: 2.2.1. Energy In 2000, emissions of GHGs from the Energy sector in Georgia accounted for 5,926.9 Gg CO2 making up 53.9% of the total national emissions of GHGs. The dominant gases in the sector were CO2 and CH4, the emissions of N2O from the sector equalling less than 1% of national GHG emissions. Figure 2.69 shows emissions of specific GHGs and their share in total sectoral emissions in 2000. Figure 2.68, constructed on the basis of the 1990 data, shows that the amount of CH4 and N2O emissions in Gg in 2000 were about at the 1990 level, while CO2 emissions fell approximately 10-fold resulting in changes of share of these gases in total emission. Figure 2.70 gives emissions of GHGs from the Energy sector in 2006. Compared to 2000, emissions of CH4 in 2006 were lower, while emissions of CO2 had grown. As a whole, emissions in 2006 rose by about 10%, relative to the 2000 level. Figure 2.71 demonstrates trends of CO2 and CH4 emissions from the Energy sector in 2000-2006. Since 2003, the CO2 emissions trend has been closely related to the increased consumption of liquid fuel in the country. The decrease in CH4 emissions in the same period was caused by a reduction in natural gas leakages from transmission and distribution.

2720

7.4%

33774,

92.3%

98

0.3%

CO2 CH4 N2O

Figure 2.68. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Energy sector and their share in sectoral emissions, 1990

Figure 2.69. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Energy sector and their share in sectoral

emissions, 2000

4730

72.7%

1676

25.8%

99.2

1.5%

CO2 CH4 N2O

Figure 2.70. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Energy sector and their share in sectoral emissions,

2006

Figure 2.71. Trend of CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the Energy sector, 2000-2006

3177 54%

2686 45%

63 1%

CO2 CH4  N2O

 

 

68

2.2.2. Industrial Processes In 2000, emissions of CO2 and N2O took place from within the Industrial processes sector. Aggregated emissions of CO2 and N2O from Industrial processes totalled 1,023.6 Gg CO2-eq, making up 9.3% of the total national GHG emissions. In 1990-2000, a minor source of methane emissions came from the chemical production of coke. In 2000, emissions of CH4 from this source were practically zero. Figure 2.73 shows emissions of GHGs from Industrial processes and their share in sectoral emissions in 2000. Figure 2.72 constructed on the basis of 1990 data shows that emissions from the sector significantly decreased, especially the CO2 emissions. Figure 2.74 gives the GHG emissions in 2006, suggesting that the share of NO2 emissions was insignificant in that year. Figure 2.75 demonstrates trends of CO2 and N2O emissions from Industrial processes in 2000-2006. According to this figure, since 2000 emissions of both CO2 and N2O have been growing, though in 2006 this trend was broken in the case of N2O.

4768,

88.6%

611

11.3%

4

0.1%

CO2 N2O CH4

474

47%

528

53%

CO2 N2O

Figure 2.72. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Industrial processes and their share in sectoral

emissions, 1990

Figure 2.73. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Industrial processes and their share in sectoral

emissions, 2000

887

98%

22

2%

CO2 N2O

0

400

800

1200

2000 2002 2004 2006

gg-C

O2eq

CO2 N2O

Figure 2.74. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Industrial processes and their share in sectoral

emissions, 2006

Figure 2.75 Trend of CO2 and N2O emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the Industrial processes, 2000-2006

2.2.3. Solvent and other product use Emissions of NMOCs and N2O from this source category, owing to the absence of direct measurements, were calculated according to population, using annual default values of per-capita emissions recommended by the EMEP/CORINAIR Guidelines (EEA, 2005). Calculations were performed for 1990-2006 in the following sub-sectors:  

Emissions of NMVOCs: (3.A) – Paint application, (3.B) – Degreasing and dry cleaning et al., (3.C) – Polygraphy, glue and lacquer application, domestic use of solvents et al.

 

 

 

69

Emissions of N2O: application for anaesthetic in medicine. Annual emissions have been averaged for the above-mentioned time period. The results above indicate that annual emissions from the territory of Georgia due to solvent and other product use are equal to 51.76 Gg for NMVOCs and 0.0169 Gg for N2O. 2.2.4. Agriculture In 2000, aggregated emissions of CH4 and CO2 in the Agriculture sector accounted for 2,802.5 Gg CO2-eq, making up 25.5% of the total national GHG emissions. Emissions of CO2 from the Agriculture sector were negligible and they have not been accounted for. Figure 2.77 shows emissions of CH4 and NO2 from the Agriculture sector in 2000, and their share in sectoral emissions. The same Figure 2.76 constructed on the basis of 1990 data shows that compared to 1990, emissions in 2000 were significantly lower, by 1,180.2 Gg CO2-eq, or 29.6%, in total. Figure 2.78 gives the GHG emissions for 2006. Figure 2.79 shows the trends of CH4 and N2O emissions from the Agriculture sector in 2000-2006. Since 2000, emissions of both gases have been constantly growing with the exception of 2004, when synthetic fertilizers were applied to the soil in relatively small quantity, and which entailed accordingly low emissions of N2O.

2011,

50.5%

1972,

49.5%

CH4 N2O

1554

56%

1242

44%

CH4 N2O

Figure 2.76. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Agriculture sector and their share in sectoral emissions,

1990

Figure 2.77. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Agriculture sector and their share in sectoral

emissions, 2000

1768

49.5%1807

50.5%

CH4 N2O

Figure 2.78. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Agriculture sector and their share in sectoral emissions,

2006

Figure 2.79. Trend of CH4 and N2O emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the Agriculture sector, 2000-2006

 2.2.5. Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) In 2000 in Georgia 2,085.5 Gg C were removed by sinks from land use, land-use change and the forestry sector, making up 412.1 Gg C and amounting to a net absorption equal to 1,673.4 Gg C. The carbon absorption from forests amounted to 1,392.6 Gg C (66%), from other woody biomass 573.7 (27.5%), and by soils 119.2 Gg C (5.7%). The forests emitted 294.7 Gg C (31.5%), other woody biomass 49.2 Gg C (11.9%), and soils 68.2 Gg C (16.5%). Accordingly, the net uptake by

 

 

70

forests made up 1,097.9 Gg C (65.6%), other woody biomass 524.5 Gg C (31.3%), and by soils 51.0 Gg C (3%). The inventory of land use, land-use change and the forestry sector, were based upon the idea that the flow of CO2 from (or to) the atmosphere was equal to changes in carbon stocks existing in biomass or soils, and that the changes in carbon stocks could be assessed on the basis of land-use change and activities, causing these changes (burning, complete cutting down, selected cuttings, etc.). In the IPCC approach, the emissions assessment examined changes in carbon stocks caused by: (1) changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks; (2) forest and grassland conversion to agricultural or other types of land; (3) carbon uptake by the abandoned (managed) lands, and (4) emissions and removals from soil. In Figure 2.80 the amount of absorbed and emitted carbon Gg C from this sector is given for 2000, and in Figure 2.81 the trend of net uptake Gg C is shown for 1990-2006.

Figure 2.80. Carbon emissions and uptake Gg C, 2000

Figure 2.81. Trend of net carbon uptake Gg C from the LULUCF sector

2.2.5.1. Changes in forestry and other woody biomass stocks In forests the continuous process of CO2 absorption from the atmosphere, and its emission in turn, takes place subject to natural and anthropogenic impacts. Emissions of CO2 from changes in forests and other woody biomass stocks are caused by changes in carbon stocks as a result of an increase or decrease in biomass (commercial storage of timber and traditional consumption of firewood). According to the IPCC classification, Georgia is situated in a temperate climate zone in which seasonal changes in climate are well pronounced. The territory of Georgia’s forest fund equals 2.9 million ha, of which 2.7 million ha is covered by forests making up 40% of Georgia’s total territory (6.97 million ha). The state economic forest fund occupies 2.4 million ha, of which 2.3 million ha is covered by forests. The annual increment of timber amounts to 4.6-4.8 million m3, and the annual average increment of timber per hectare equals 1.8 m3. Total wood reserves amount to 451.7 million m3. The distribution of forests, which are massive over the territory of Georgia, is complex and full of contrast. More than 90% of forests are situated on mountain slopes (the greater and smaller Caucasus Mountains). A significant part (40%) of them occupy slopes with great steepness

412.1

2085.5

Emission Absorption

 

 

 

71

(>35%) as a result of which the economic use of forests is very limited. Georgia is characterised by a variety of environmental conditions that promote the spread of different kinds of trees. Detailed data on the distribution of forests by kind of trees (vegetation) doesn’t exist. Hence, they are classified only as coniferous and deciduous. The total absorption of CO2 by forests was assessed by multiplying the areas occupied by coniferous and deciduous forests, by the IPCC 1996 default values of mean annual increment of biomass, and summarising the results obtained. Calculations for 1998-2002 were made by applying the IPCC Tier 1 methodological approach, using default coefficients relevant to specific climatic zones in Georgia. For other years, the information was not available. Calculations were performed for the areas occupied by forests having economic function. Therefore the data on areas covered by coniferous and deciduous forests were taken from Georgia’s forest fund statistical yearbooks, compiled on the basis of inventories carried out in different years by the forestry department. As for stored timber and forest fires data, these were taken from the balance reports compiled at the end of each year for the forestry department. In 2000, the annual increment of biomass in Georgia’s forests amounted to 1,392.6 Gg C, while as a result of commercial extraction and traditional consumption of firewood, 294.7 Gg C had been released (see Figure 2.82). Hence in 2000, the net absorption of carbon in Georgia’s forests equalled 1,097.9 Gg C, or 4,025.5 Gg CO2. Compared to the same value in 1990, (3,738.8 Gg CO2) in 2000, the net absorption of CO2 had increased by 286.7 Gg CO2. Figure 2.83 demonstrates the trend of carbon net absorption change in Georgia’s forests in 1990-2006.

Figure 2.82. Carbon emission and absorption (Gg C) from Georgia’s forests, 2000

Figure 2.83. Trend of net carbon uptake by forests, 1990-2006.

Among other stocks of woody biomass, the areas covered by perennial crops (fruit orchards, tea plantation, etc.) were considered, for which the annual changes in carbon stock contained in green biomass were calculated. In 2000, the net change in carbon stock contained in perennial green biomass crops amounted to -524.544 Gg CS, or 1,923.328 Gg CO2 had been absorbed. Figure 2.84 shows amounts of carbon absorbed and emitted by the perennial crops.  

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

1392.6.5

294.7

Absorption Eission

 

 

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In 2000, the net change in carbon stock in forests and other woody biomass in Georgia made up 1,640.4 Gg C, i.e. 6,014.9 Gg CO2 had been absorbed from the atmosphere. Figure 2.85 shows the amount of absorbed and emitted carbon from Georgia’s forests and other woody biomass stock.

Figure 2.84. Carbon absorption and emission (Gg C) from perennial crops, 2000

Figure 2.85. Carbon absorption and emission (Gg C) from forest and other woody biomass stocks, 2000

2.2.5.2. Forest and grassland conversion The estimation of annual losses of biomass in Georgia in 2000 resulting from forest and grassland conversion to arable land proved to be impossible, due to the absence of relevant data. Meanwhile, as a result of a survey among experts in the Ministries of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources and Agriculture, as well as the Department of Statistics, it was revealed that there were no large-scale conversions of different categories of land into arable land during the examined period. 2.2.5.3. Abandonment of managed lands The assessment of changes in carbon stocks resulting from the abandonment of cultivated arable land proved to be impossible, due to the absence of necessary data. According to expert judgement, this change was not significant, as arable lands are mainly situated in plains, and as a rule at sufficient distance from forests. As a result, forest assault is not observed. Correspondingly, there was no sharp increase in biomass quantity. In separate cases, the abandoned lands had completely degraded and turned into barren land, without any above ground biomass growth. 2.2.5.4. CO2 emissions and removals from soils The emission and removal of CO2 from the soil is connected with changes in the amount of organic carbon stockpiled into the soil. CO2 is emitted by inorganic sources as well as by natural carbonate minerals or lime applied to the soil. Therefore, in this source category, changes in carbon stocks contained in mineral soils were examined, caused by changes in land use or changes in land cultivation. This process also incorporates CO2 emissions from cultivated organic soils (e.g. from peaty soils) and CO2 emissions as a result of soil liming. In the National GHG Inventory, changes in carbon stocks in arable land, pastures and hayfields, and mineral soils, were examined for 1998-2002. For other years the information was not available.

1966.3

343.9

Absorption Emission  

49.2

Absorption Emission

573.7

 

 

73

The IPCC Tier 1 approach was used in the calculations. The IPCC 1996 default values were used. Statistical yearbooks of the Department of Statistics were used as a source of information. In 2000, carbon removal by pastures and hayfield soils amounted to 119.2 Gg C, while the emission from croplands made up 68.2 Gg C. The conversion of organic lands (peaty soils) to agricultural soils was performed through artificial drying, cultivation and liming that resulted in the rapid oxidation of organic matter, and increased emissions of carbon into the atmosphere. For the last 10-12 years, data on the drying of organic soils in Georgia has not existed. According to experts’ judgement, conversion of organic soils did not take place in this period of time. The humid subtropical soils typical for Western Georgia are characterised by high acidity. Their liming has began in the 1960s. The last liming was undertaken in 1997 on an area of 300 ha. Data on the liming of soils for the subsequent period does not exist. Hence the net uptake of carbon from mineral soils made up 51 Gg C. In Figure 2.86, the emission and removal of carbon from mineral soils (Gg C) is shown and in Figure 2.87 the trend of net carbon uptake from mineral soils is demonstrated for 1998-2002.

Figure 2.86. Emissions and removal of carbon (Gg C) from mineral soils, 2000

Figure 2.87. Trend of net carbon uptake from mineral soils, 1998-2002

2.2.6. Waste In 2000, emissions of methane and nitrous oxide in Georgia amounted to 1,236.3 Gg CO2-eq, making up 11.3% of total national emissions. The dominant gas in this sector was CH4, the share of which in sectoral GHG emissions equalled 93%. Figure 2.89 gives the emissions of these two gases from the Waste sector, and their shares in sectoral emissions. From Figure 2.88, constructed on the basis of 1990 data, it can be seen that in 2000 emissions of CH4 significantly decreased, relevant to 1990, which was caused by a reduction in the amount of industrial wastewater. Figure 2.91 demonstrates trends of CH4 and N2O emissions from the Waste sector in 2000-2006. Emissions during this period did not vary significantly. Figure 2.90 shows the emissions of GHGs in 2006, almost repeating the 2000 picture.

68.2

119.2

Emission Absorption

 

 

74

1918

95%

100

5%

CH4 N2O

1150

93%

86

7%

CH4 N2O

Figure 2.88. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Waste sector and their share in sectoral emissions, 1990

Figure 2.89. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Waste sector and their share in sectoral emissions, 2000

1151

93%

89

7%

CH4 N2O

Figure 2.90. Emissions of GHGs (Gg CO2-eq) from the Waste sector and their share in sectoral emissions, 2006

Figure 2.91. Trend of CH4 and N2O emissions (Gg CO2-eq) from the Waste sector, 2000-2006

2.3 Uncertainty analysis Uncertainty assessment of Georgia’s GHG inventory relied on the quantitative Tier 1 method, and an uncertainty analysis recommended by the IPCC (GPG). GHG emissions uncertainties by source category, and aggregated uncertainties, were calculated based on uncertainties of the input variables (AD and EFs), and by using the error propagation rules for sums and products. Country-specific input uncertainties were determined via expert judgement, on the basis of the standard (IPCC guidance) uncertainty limits for the AD and EFs, or for parameters/variables in the formulae for them, with the further use of error propagation rules to calculate the uncertainty of the final variables. The uncertainties of GHG emissions at all levels of the Inventory (by source category/gas and the aggregated uncertainties) were reported in the recommended (Table 6.1 GPG) format of Tier 1 of the Uncertainty Calculation and Reporting Table (see Annex III). The uncertainty assessment for each sector and source category was given in greater detail in the Georgia I National GHG Inventory Report (published only in Georgian). 2.4. National GHG Inventory strategy An important element of Georgia’s integration into the EU is the provision of GHG inventory system continuity. Aligning this goal with the preparation of a relevant legal basis, it became necessary to assemble and improve the national system of GHG inventory, which implies improvements in data compilation, processing and reporting. Different elements of the national inventory can be improved and strengthened within various national and international programmes. To provide sustainability and continuity of a national inventory process, a national inventory strategy needs to be worked out which must be approved by the government. This draft of the National GHG Inventory Strategy was prepared in the framework of Georgia’s SNC.

 

 

75

The results of a regional project (RER/01/GE31), implemented earlier with UNDP and GEF support, are considered and accounted for in it. 2.4.1 Inventory process in Georgia Georgia acceded to the UNFCCC in 1994, and got status as a non-Annex I Party with the economy in transition. Unlike Annex I countries to the Convention, Georgia as a non-Annex I Country is not committed to carry out and submit to the CoP an annual inventory of GHGs, and its inventory process is still fully related to the preparation of National Communications or implementation of other international programmes. The country has not yet adopted a national strategy on National GHG Inventory, and this second draft could be regarded as the next attempt in this direction. Three main projects considering the sustainability of National GHG Inventory, and improvement of its elements, have already been financially supported by the UNDP/GEF: Georgia’s INC, under the UNFCCC (1997-1999), "Regional Project (12 countries) on Capacity Building for Improving the Quality of GHG Inventory", and Georgia’s SNC to the UNFCCC (2006-2008). Apart from the above-mentioned projects, a more detailed inventory of GHG emissions has been conducted for some source-categories (cement and ammonia production, energy generation and distribution, etc.) under the preparation of CDM proposals. The first inventory of GHG emissions in Georgia was carried out in 1997-1999, while preparing the INC, which was presented at COP 5 in 1999. The years 1980 to 1997 and all the main greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O), were covered by this initial inventory. The second national inventory in Georgia was conducted in 2006-2008, in the framework of Georgia’s SNC. The 1990-2006 years, and all six GHGs (including industrial gases) were covered by the SNC. The main focus was on the years 2000-2006, and 2000 was selected as the base year. 2.4.2 Georgia’s Second National Inventory In the framework of Georgia’s SNC, a second attempt was made to undertake a relatively more valuable inventory. Under the tender, an inventory Team Leader was selected and a responsible person appointed for the QA/QC procedures. For each sector (energy, transport, agriculture, industry, waste, forest and land use change, industrial gases) a responsible expert was appointed as well. A responsible person was selected to compile databases and to create the inventory archive. All in all, ten experts were engaged in the process, and USD 70,000 was spent on this 2000-2006 inventory. As Georgia has not yet committed to carrying out annual inventories, which is a substantial undertaking, they are currently conducted by and large only on a periodic basis. Carrying out such an inventory depends predominantly on the preparation of a national communication to the UNFCCC, or on other projects which are supported financially from outside the country. For the efficient management of the GHG inventory process, the periodicity of its conduct and reporting should be determined by the law, and the entity responsible for carrying out the inventory should be clearly defined, along with its duties and its relationships with all parties participating in the inventory. At the same time, the maximum engagement of the state or non-governmental structures, which are responsible for statistics in the country, should be provided in this process of inventory. As to the third inventory, which should be carried out no later than 2010, its management process in the meantime should remain the same. The objective of this task is to

 

 

76

obtain valuable information on the GHG status up to 2012, i.e. to the end of the Kyoto first commitment period. In the SNC preparation process a basis has been created at the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources (Hydrometeorology and Climate Change Administration) to ensure carrying out of the GHG inventory with a certain periodicity using our country’s own capabilities. Despite the fact that the results of these activities can not be perfect, they can provide a continuity of the inventory process. 2.4.3 Georgia’s Second National Inventory Report In Georgia’s SNC, the 1990-2006 period was assessed. Computer databases created under the IPCC and UNFCCC were compiled and an archive of data sources set up. To avoid errors and improve the precision of the final results, the QA/QC procedure and certainty analyses have been conducted for all sectors. The first independent document on GHG inventory in Georgia has already been printed, in which the double checked and revised results prepared for the SNC were included. In Georgia’s second national inventory, all direct (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) and indirect (CO, NOx, NMVOC, SO2) GHGs were considered, defined by the Convention (Decision 17/CP.7). These inventory results in the recommended established format are presented in Annex I to this document.  In Table 1, presented below, the amounts of direct GHG emissions in 2000 are presented. (In Georgia the share of industrial gases in total emissions is insignificant, and hence they are not included in this Table. For industrial gases see Annex I.

Table 2.4. Georgia’s GHG emissions (Gg), 2000.

Module CO2 CH4 N2O Total sectoral CO2 eq

Share of modul in total emission (%)

1. Energy 3,177 128 0.21 5,930.1 54.1

2. Industrial procesess 528 0 1.53 1,002.3 9.1

4. Agriculture 0 74 4.03 2,803.3 25.5

6. Waste 0 55 0.28 1,241.8 11.3

Total 3,705 257 6.05

GWP 1 21 310

Total CO2-eq direct GHG emission 3,705 5,397 1,875.5 10,977.5

Share of GHG (%) in total emission 34 49 17 100

5. Forests -4,025.5 0.066 0.0004 4,025.57

Methodology. The IPCC 1996 revised guideline and the GPG (2003) were used as the principle guidelines in the process of the SNC inventory. For the Transport sector, the computer programme COPERT was applied in addition. For the Agriculture and solid Waste sector, a Tier

 

 

77

1 methodology was used within a framework in which national factors were estimated. However, 90% of the emissions factors used in the national inventory were still the IPCC default values adjusted to national conditions. On the basis of the initial inventory results analysis using the key source categories selection method given in the GPG, key source categories were identified for which a number of new elements were required for the continuity and sustainability of the inventory process, all of which have been implemented. They are: The IPCC and UNFCCC software application, a documentation of the inventory process, the creation of an archive for initial data and applied methodologies, the compilation of national inventory guidelines (a provision of the inventory process sustainability), the implementation of QA/QC procedures (improvement of the management process), an uncertainty analysis, and an elaboration of the GHG inventory national strategy, on the basis of GPG. In the first strategic document created for the inventory sector in Georgia, a short-term strategy was envisaged for the four year period 2006-2009. During the creation of the strategy, the financial and technological assistance potential existing at that time, or expected in the near future, was taken into account. In particular, three major sources of technical and financial assistance were considered: Regional projects aimed at the improvement of national inventories (2003-2006), Georgia’s SNC to the UNFCCC (2006-2008) and preparation of project proposals in the framework of the CDM (2005-2012). In the process of SNC preparation, elements of existing short-term strategies were taken into account, and most if not almost all of them were implemented, except the provision of a relevant legislative basis. The improvement of an inventory management system should be considered a main success. To achieve this goal at the initial stage, the perfection of its separate elements in the framework of regional projects was undertaken. These elements were: elaboration of a national inventory strategy, the carrying out of QA/QC procedures, the preparation of a national guideline for the conduct of inventory, and the documentation of the inventory process. In the framework of regional projects, these strategic elements were implemented only for some major source categories. In the second national inventory all the above listed elements were adopted in all sectors. 2.4.4 Short-term strategy (2009-2012)

To improve the GHG inventory process, three main elements were considered in the strategy: the provision of sustainability/continuity of the process, which includes permanent updating of the guidelines, documenting of information/permanent updating of the archive and databases; proper management, implying constant renewal of appointments of responsible experts, the creation of a final report structure, the adoption of advanced methodologies, the promotion and the creation of a necessary legislative basis, the elaboration of short- and long-term strategic documents and quality assurance containing the QA/QC and uncertainty assessments, and the improvement of activity data and emission factors. For the implementation of a national inventory short-term (2009-20012) strategy in Georgia, the following activities are planned: Regulation of national inventories frequency; Perfection of legislative basis: Determination of an inventory process sequence, the

appointment of responsible entities, the improvement of data collection systems; Improvement of management; Constant renewal of a national expert base and training of experts;

 

 

78

Rechecking of the second National GHG Inventory process by national experts and documentation of errors;

In-depth reviews of the inventory process results at the regional and international levels; Specification of activity data and emission factors in the frame of concrete CDM

projects; Making relevant corrections to the archive and databases.

The short-term strategy has been limited to 2009-2012 because in 2009, if a new agreement is adopted in Copenhagen (Denmark), countries could get new commitments which should be considered at the next stage. 2.4.5 Long-term strategy The objective of the National GHG Inventory long-term strategy is the provision of national inventory process sustainability, and quality, as well as the implementation of legislation and procedures required by EU regulations. The time period for the implementation of a long-term strategy is approximately 10 years (2012-2025) or more, while the approximate period for the implementation of a short-term strategy is considered to be 2009-2012. In the long-term strategy, a step-by-step perfection of the inventory process should be undertaken, the final goal of which is to carry out such a valuable inventory on an annual basis. To achieve this goal it is necessary to: Create of a valuable legislative basis; Perfect of a national system of data collection and improve statistics; Create a sustainable/ongoing system of national inventory to carry out an inventory on an

annual basis (a permanent group, inventory database, distribution of obligations, financial support);

Conduct a complete inventory for all sectors and source categories; Determination of national emission factors, or improvement of their accuracy; Application of possibly high-level methodologies for the key source categories; Annual publication of GHG inventory reports.

Geo

rgia

’s N

atio

nal G

HG

In

ven

tory

Str

ateg

y

Key

str

ateg

ic

obje

ctiv

es

Key

tar

get

grou

ps

Act

ivit

y P

oten

tial

lead

age

ncie

s O

utpu

t P

oten

tial

don

ors

Shor

t-ter

m o

bjec

tives

•

Min

istry

of E

nviro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

; Hyd

rom

eteo

rolo

gy

and

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

Adm

inis

tratio

n

The

obje

ctiv

e of

the

shor

t-ter

m st

rate

gy is

the

perf

ectio

n of

diff

eren

t ele

men

ts a

nd st

ages

of t

he

Nat

iona

l GH

G In

vent

ory,

rem

oval

of b

arrie

rs to

im

plem

entin

g th

e lo

ng-r

ange

stra

tegy

, ela

bora

tion

of m

easu

res t

o pr

ovid

e th

e N

atio

nal G

HG

In

vent

ory

long

-term

sust

aina

bilit

y. T

he sh

ort-t

erm

st

rate

gy is

pla

ned

for a

4-y

ear p

erio

d (2

009-

2012

) an

d im

plie

s the

car

ryin

g ou

t of a

dra

ft na

tiona

l in

vent

ory

with

loca

l fin

anci

al su

ppor

t (st

ate

budg

et).

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia,

Geo

rgia

’s

Nat

iona

l C

omm

unic

atio

n,

CD

M p

roje

cts

1. O

ngoi

ng re

new

al a

nd fi

lling

of

exp

erts

(nat

iona

l and

in

tern

atio

nal)

regi

ster

• In

vent

ory

expe

rts;

• H

ydro

met

eoro

logy

an

d C

limat

e C

hang

e A

dmin

istra

tion

(MoE

).

• O

ngoi

ng tr

aini

ng o

f ex

perts

incl

uded

in th

e na

tiona

l reg

iste

r; •

Enab

ling

the

proc

ess

of n

atio

nal e

xper

ts

train

ing

at th

e re

gion

al

and

inte

rnat

iona

l le

vels

; •

Prep

arat

ion

of n

ew

expe

rts (m

inim

um o

ne

expe

rt in

eac

h se

ctor

) at

rele

vant

facu

lties

of

appr

opria

te

univ

ersi

ties

(Che

mis

try, S

oil

Scie

nce,

For

estry

, En

ergy

). In

trodu

ctio

n of

aca

dem

ic c

ours

es o

n th

e in

vent

ory

item

s;

• O

ngoi

ng re

new

al o

f in

tern

atio

nal a

nd

regi

onal

exp

erts

staf

f.

• M

inis

try o

f Env

ironm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al

Res

ourc

es, H

ydro

met

eoro

logy

an

d C

limat

e C

hang

e A

dmin

istra

tion.

• St

aff o

f nat

iona

l exp

erts

is p

erm

anen

tly

avai

labl

e, re

new

ed a

nd e

xpan

ded.

G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

, Thi

rd

Nat

iona

l C

omm

unic

atio

n,

CD

M, U

NFC

CC

Se

cret

aria

t

2. A

naly

ses a

nd a

sses

smen

t of

trend

s for

key

GH

G so

urce

s (a

ccor

ding

to G

PG)

• In

vent

ory

expe

rts

• H

ydro

met

eoro

logy

an

d C

limat

e C

hang

e A

dmin

istra

tion

(MoE

)

• Th

e tre

nd fo

r eac

h se

ctor

exa

min

ed in

the

last

inve

ntor

y sh

ould

be

ass

esse

d ac

cord

ing

to th

e G

PG a

nd k

ey

• N

atio

nal G

HG

Inve

ntor

y Te

am

Lead

er (M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pro

tect

ion

and

Nat

ural

Res

ourc

es).

• K

ey so

urce

s of G

HG

em

issi

ons i

n G

eorg

ia a

re

iden

tifie

d an

d as

sess

ed.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia, T

hird

N

atio

nal

Com

mun

icat

ion,

sect

ors a

re to

be

dete

rmin

ed

3.Im

prov

emen

t of t

he o

vera

ll m

anag

emen

t of t

he in

vent

ory

proc

ess

• In

vent

ory

expe

rts;

• H

ydro

met

eoro

logy

an

d C

limat

e C

hang

e A

dmin

istra

tion

(MoE

).

• W

orki

ng o

ut o

f the

de

taile

d pl

an (2

009-

2012

) for

car

ryin

g ou

t th

e in

vent

ory;

•

Shar

ing

of

resp

onsi

bilit

ies,

appo

intm

ent o

f re

spon

sibl

e pe

rson

s an

d w

orki

ng o

ut o

f an

nual

indi

vidu

al

wor

k-pl

ans;

•

Perm

anen

t upd

atin

g of

G

HG

s inv

ento

ry

man

ual (

Geo

rgia

n ve

rsio

n);

• A

ppoi

ntm

ent o

f Q

A/Q

C re

spon

sibl

e pe

rson

and

pro

visi

on

of th

is p

roce

ss

impl

emen

tatio

n (m

inim

um o

ne se

ctor

an

nual

ly) ;

•

Perm

anen

t upd

atin

g of

in

vent

ory

wor

k pl

an.

• In

vent

ory

Team

Lea

der

(Min

istry

of E

nviro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

); •

Third

Nat

iona

l Com

mun

icat

ion

Coo

rdin

ator

.

• Th

e lis

t of a

ctiv

ities

to b

e im

plem

ente

d an

nual

ly in

the

fram

ewor

k of

nat

iona

l in

vent

ory

is a

ssig

ned;

•

Res

pons

ible

per

sons

are

app

oint

ed;

• D

utie

s of e

ach

inve

ntor

y ex

pert

are

form

ulat

ed.

Nat

iona

l C

omm

unic

atio

n,

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

Nat

iona

l Pr

ogra

mm

e

4. P

eer a

nd e

xper

t rev

iew

/ re

visi

on

•

Nat

iona

l inv

ento

ry

team

. •

The

resu

lts o

f nat

iona

l in

vent

ory

are

sent

to

all s

tock

hold

ers f

or

.com

men

ts a

nd

rem

arks

; •

The

inve

ntor

y re

sults

be

fore

pub

lishi

ng a

re

sent

to re

leva

nt

inte

rnat

iona

l stru

ctur

es

(e.g

. NC

SP) f

or

com

men

ts;

• A

ll co

mm

ents

are

re

chec

ked

corr

espo

ndin

gly

asse

ssed

and

take

n in

to

acco

unt i

n th

e do

cum

ent.

• N

atio

nal i

nven

tory

team

; •

Dep

artm

ent o

f Sta

tistic

s.

• G

eorg

ia’s

nat

iona

l inv

ento

ry is

revi

ewed

by

stak

ehol

ders

; •

Fina

l doc

umen

t of n

atio

nal c

omm

unic

atio

n is

im

prov

ed.

5. R

eche

ckin

g of

Geo

rgia

’s

seco

nd n

atio

nal i

nven

tory

and

do

cum

entin

g of

rem

arks

(Q

A/Q

C)

• N

atio

nal i

nven

tory

te

am.

• A

ppoi

ntm

ent o

f re

spon

sibl

e pe

rson

for

each

sect

or;

• D

ocum

entin

g of

in

com

ing

and

loca

lly

iden

tifie

d m

ista

kes;

•

Inse

rtion

of r

elev

ant

corr

ectio

ns in

mai

n do

cum

ent.

• In

vent

ory

Team

Lea

der

(Min

istry

of E

nviro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

); •

Dep

artm

ent o

f Sta

tistic

s;

• In

itial

dat

a pr

ovid

er m

inis

tries

.

• R

eche

ckin

g of

200

0-20

06 in

vent

ory

resu

lts

and

data

in th

e fr

amew

ork

of Q

A/Q

C

proc

edur

e. T

he m

ain

sour

ce c

ateg

orie

s re

chec

ked,

are

thos

e w

hich

wer

e no

t re

chec

ked

in th

e pr

oces

s of s

econ

d na

tiona

l in

vent

ory.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia

6. Im

prov

emen

t of a

ctiv

ity d

ata

and

emis

sion

s fac

tors

for t

he

prio

rity

sect

ors

• N

atio

nal i

nven

tory

te

am.

• Id

entif

icat

ion

of

activ

ity d

ata

and

emis

sion

s fac

tors

the

impr

ovem

ent o

f whi

ch

is p

ossi

ble

in th

e re

leva

nt ti

me

perio

d;

• R

espo

nsib

le p

erso

n fo

r th

e in

vent

ory

proc

ess

is to

follo

w th

e IP

CC

gu

idel

ines

and

info

rm

rele

vant

exp

erts

; •

Prov

isio

n of

max

imum

pa

rtici

patio

n of

priv

ate

sect

or in

the

perf

ectio

n of

act

ivity

dat

a;

• R

aisi

ng o

f pub

lic

awar

enes

s in

the

scie

nce

sect

or a

imin

g at

the

impr

ovem

ent o

f em

issi

on fa

ctor

s.

• In

vent

ory

team

; •

Priv

ate

sect

or e

ngag

ed in

CD

M;

• R

elev

ant r

esea

rch

inst

itutio

n.

• A

ctiv

ity d

ata

for k

ey so

urce

cat

egor

ies a

re

impr

oved

; •

Emis

sion

fact

ors f

or k

ey so

urce

cat

egor

ies a

re

impr

oved

.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia, T

hird

N

atio

nal

Com

mun

icat

ion,

C

DM

7. Im

prov

emen

t of d

ata

arch

ivin

g an

d pr

esen

tatio

n sy

stem

and

per

man

ent u

pdat

e of

the

arch

ive

• N

atio

nal i

nven

tory

te

am.

• Pe

rman

ent u

pdat

e an

d im

prov

emen

t of

arch

ive

acco

rdin

g to

th

e re

quire

men

ts o

f the

la

test

dev

elop

men

ts;

• Pr

ovis

ion

of e

lect

roni

c co

pies

rele

vant

to th

e ad

ditio

n of

new

in

form

atio

n (in

cas

e of

in

form

atio

n up

date

).

• In

vent

ory

Team

Lea

der.

•

The

arch

ive

is p

erm

anen

tly u

pdat

ed;

• B

ack-

up c

opie

s of e

lect

roni

c ar

chiv

e sh

ould

be

ensu

red;

•

Res

pons

ible

per

son

for t

he a

rchi

ve sh

ould

be

appo

inte

d w

ith c

lear

resp

onsi

bilit

ies i

dent

ified

in

ToR

. (w

ithin

the

SNC

such

per

son

was

Mr.

R. B

aton

isas

hvili

who

at t

he sa

me

time

has

crea

ted

the

arch

ive)

.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia, T

hird

N

atio

nal

Com

mun

icat

ion

8. U

pdat

ing

of th

e G

HG

in

vent

ory

natio

nal m

anua

l •

Nat

iona

l inv

ento

ry

team

. •

Upd

atin

g of

the

man

ual a

nd a

dditi

on o

f no

n-ke

y se

ctor

s;

• Pu

blic

atio

n of

the

man

ual.

• In

vent

ory

team

. •

New

sect

ors a

re in

clud

ed in

the

man

ual

(indu

stria

l gas

es, s

olve

nts)

; •

The

Man

ual i

s sys

tem

atic

ally

upd

ated

; •

The

Man

ual i

s pub

lishe

d (o

nly

in c

ase

if sp

ecia

l bud

get f

or p

ublis

hing

is re

ceiv

ed) .

Third

Nat

iona

l C

omm

unic

atio

n

9. Im

plem

enta

tion

of th

e Q

A/Q

C p

roce

dure

for t

he k

ey

sect

ors

• N

atio

nal i

nven

tory

te

am.

• Th

is p

roce

dure

cou

ld

be p

erfo

rmed

ann

ually

fo

r the

key

sect

ors;

•

Und

er th

e St

ate

budg

et

supp

ort o

nly

one

sect

or

coul

d be

con

trolle

d on

qu

ality

ann

ually

.

•

In th

e pr

oces

s of s

econ

d na

tiona

l inv

ento

ry a

m

anua

l (se

ctio

n) a

nd e

xper

ts (4

) wer

e pr

epar

ed to

car

ry o

ut Q

A/Q

C p

roce

dure

.

10. I

mpr

ovem

ent o

f leg

isla

tion

•

Min

istry

of

Envi

ronm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al R

esou

rces

.

• D

eter

min

atio

n of

the

perio

dici

ty to

car

ry o

ut

the

inve

ntor

y;

• Id

entif

icat

ion

of

legi

slat

ive

gaps

in th

e da

ta c

olle

ctio

n sy

stem

.

• M

inis

try o

f Env

ironm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al

Res

ourc

es, H

ydro

met

eoro

logy

an

d C

limat

e C

hang

e A

dmin

istra

tion;

•

Parli

amen

t of G

eorg

ia;

• D

iffer

ent s

truct

ures

eng

aged

in

the

inve

ntor

y.

• Le

gisl

ativ

e ga

ps in

dat

a co

llect

ion

syst

em a

re

erad

icat

ed o

r les

sene

d.

M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

, Pa

rliam

ent o

f G

eorg

ia

11

. Nat

iona

l Inv

ento

ry R

epor

t •

UN

FCC

C;

• G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

; •

Min

istry

of

Envi

ronm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al R

esou

rces

.

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

the

Rep

ort;

• En

surin

g th

e st

akeh

olde

r co

mm

entin

g pr

oces

s;

• Pu

blic

atio

n of

the

Rep

ort.

• M

inis

try o

f Env

ironm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al

Res

ourc

es, H

ydro

met

eoro

logy

an

d C

limat

e C

hang

e A

dmin

istra

tion.

• Th

e d

ocum

ent o

f the

ann

ual n

atio

nal

inve

ntor

y is

pre

pare

d;

• Th

e na

tiona

l inv

ento

ry R

epor

t is p

ublis

hed

in

the

fram

ewor

k of

nat

iona

l com

mun

icat

ions

(or

usin

g ot

her b

udge

t allo

cate

d to

this

pur

pose

).

Nat

iona

l C

omm

unic

atio

ns

or o

ther

targ

et

prog

ram

me

12. E

labo

ratio

n of

long

-term

st

rate

gy a

nd it

s per

man

ent

upda

ting

• M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

Res

ourc

es.

• Id

entif

icat

ion

of m

ain

elem

ents

for l

ong-

term

st

rate

gy;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

long

-te

rm st

rate

gy.

• M

inis

try o

f Env

ironm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al

Res

ourc

es.

• G

HG

nat

iona

l inv

ento

ry lo

ng-te

rm st

rate

gy is

up

date

d.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia

Long

-term

stra

tegy

•

Min

istry

of E

nviro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

, Hyd

rom

eteo

rolo

gy

and

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

Adm

inis

tratio

n

The

obje

ctiv

e of

the

Nat

iona

l GH

G In

vent

ory

long

-te

rm s

trate

gy i

s th

e pr

ovis

ion

of t

he s

usta

inab

ility

of

th

e na

tiona

l in

vent

ory

proc

ess

and

the

impl

emen

tatio

n of

reg

ulat

ions

req

uire

d un

der

EU

legi

slat

ion.

Tim

e pe

riod

for

the

impl

emen

tatio

n of

lo

ng-te

rm s

trate

gy i

s 10

yea

rs (

2012

-202

5) a

nd

mor

e

Stat

e bu

dget

, N

atio

nal

Com

mun

icat

ions

, ot

her p

rogr

amm

e

 

 

83

References

1. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reference Manual. Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. IPCC/OECD/IEA, Geneva, 1996.

2. Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. The contribution of WG-1 to the Second Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press, IPCC, 1996.

3. Georgia’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. National Climate Research Centre, Tbilisi, 1999.

4. Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. IPCC, 2000.

5. Energy Balance of Georgia 2001. Statistical Publication, Tbilisi, 2002 (in Georgian). 6. Energy Balance of Power Sector of Georgia. USAID, Advisory Assistance to the

Ministry of Energy of Georgia. Tbilisi, 2006.  

 

 

84

Chapter 3

Steps planned to implement the Convention

3.1. Strategy for climate-change related actions Climate change was identified as a serious problem at the first world climate conference held in 1979. At this scientific forum the possible impacts of human activity on climate change were analysed. A declaration was adopted urging world governments to consider and avoid climate change. The UNFCCC was signed along with other conventions in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, at the world summit on sustainable development. The primary objective of this convention is to achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. The Convention formulated some distinct guiding principles: the “Precautionary Principle” declares that lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, as there is a risk of serous and irreversible damage. However, at present, after the publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report it has become obvious that there is plenty of certainty and that processes are going at a much faster rate than was anticipated earlier. The “principle of common but differentiated responsibility” puts the leadership onus in tackling the consequences of climate change on developed countries, although it is implied that all countries to should contribute to this effort to the extent possible. Other principles concern specific needs of developing countries and their sustainable development. The Convention entered into force on 24 March 1994. Georgia joined the Convention in 1994 as a non-Annex country. Since then Georgia has been actively involved in the process of implementing basic principles and obligations to the UNFCCC. In 1996 under the Presidential Decree the National Climate Change Programme was adopted. In the same year the National Climate Research Centre was established, on the basis of which the National Agency on Climate Change was later organised. At present the Climate Change Administration functions at the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources, co-ordinating the policy and processes taking place in this direction in the country. In 1997-1999, under the financial support of the GEF, Georgia prepared its INC. Since 1999 a number of projects have been implemented in Georgia, in the framework of which various aspects of climate change were examined and various project proposals elaborated. In 2006-2009, Georgia prepared its SNC to the UNFCCC. In the process of this activity the National GHG Inventory was undertaken, anticipated climate change scenarios were developed and the vulnerability of the different ecosystems and sectors of the economy to current and expected changes in climate was assessed. Adaptation projects were prepared, along with the planning of GHG abatement measures, and a number of activities in the field of public awareness were carried out.

 

 

85

This strategy on climate change is prepared on the basis of assessments and results obtained in the framework of the SNC and other projects going on or already being implemented in Georgia. It does not yet cover the whole territory of the country and is oriented predominantly towards the estimation of climate change impacts on the most vulnerable systems and extreme events (eroded soils, floods and landslides) and on the preparation of adaptation measures, as well as on the implementation of already prepared adaptation steps. Chapter 7 of this document analyses barriers that are hampering the implementation of Convention principles in general, as well as the transfer of specific environmentally-friendly technologies, the integration of climate change issues into the plans and concepts of sectoral development, the preparation and implementation of adaptation measures for vulnerable sectors and systems, the development of renewable energy and energy-saving policy, and the development of local potential in general, etc. The climate change strategy presented below aims at the removal of these barriers.

Cli

mat

e C

hang

e S

trat

egy

of G

eorg

ia

K

ey s

trat

egic

obj

ecti

ve

Key

tar

get

grou

ps

Act

ivit

ies

Pot

enti

al le

ad e

ntit

y O

utpu

t P

oten

tial

do

nor

pa

rtie

s Sh

ort-t

erm

obj

ectiv

es

• C

onsi

dera

tion

of t

he

clim

ate

chan

ge ri

sks i

n de

velo

pmen

t pla

ns a

nd

conc

epts

; •

Prep

arat

ion

and

impl

emen

tatio

n of

co

mpl

ete

adap

tatio

n st

rate

gy.

• G

over

nmen

t of G

eorg

ia;

• Pa

rliam

ent o

f Geo

rgia

.

•

Min

istry

of

Envi

ronm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al R

esou

rces

.

G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

, In

tern

atio

nal

dono

rs

Enh

ance

men

t of

loca

l pot

enti

al f

or t

he im

plem

enta

tion

of

UN

FC

CC

pri

ncip

les

1. R

ecog

nitio

n of

clim

ate

chan

ge p

robl

em a

s one

of t

he

prio

ritie

s by

the

gove

rnm

ent

of G

eorg

ia

• C

abin

et o

f Min

iste

rs;

• M

oE;

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

•

Min

istry

of E

cono

mic

D

evel

opm

ent ;

•

Min

istry

of A

gric

ultu

re;

• M

inis

try o

f Hea

lth, L

abou

r an

d So

cial

Pro

tect

ion;

•

Min

istry

of E

duca

tion

and

Scie

nce;

•

Min

istry

of F

inan

ce;

• M

inis

try o

f For

eign

A

ffai

rs;

• Pa

rliam

ent o

f Geo

rgia

.

• Sy

stem

atic

ass

essm

ent o

f clim

ate

chan

ge

impa

ct o

n G

eorg

ia’s

eco

nom

y an

d se

para

te e

cosy

stem

s, pr

epar

atio

n of

re

ports

for t

he g

over

nmen

t ;

• A

rran

gem

ent o

f inf

orm

atio

n an

d co

nsul

tatio

n m

eetin

gs w

ith th

e pa

rtici

patio

n of

EU

exp

erts

; •

Ensu

re th

e re

pres

enta

tion

of a

ll re

leva

nt

min

istri

es in

Geo

rgia

n de

lega

tions

pa

rtici

patin

g in

clim

ate

chan

ge

inte

rnat

iona

l mee

tings

; •

Initi

atio

n an

d pr

omot

ion

of d

ebat

es in

th

e co

untry

on

clim

ate

chan

ge is

sues

.

• C

abin

et o

f M

inis

ters

.

• D

ealin

g w

ith C

limat

e C

hang

e pr

oble

m is

reco

gnis

ed b

y th

e G

over

nmen

t of G

eorg

ia a

s one

of

its p

riorit

ies;

•

Poss

ible

impa

ct o

f clim

ate

chan

ge is

con

side

red

in p

lans

an

d co

ncep

ts o

f sec

tora

l de

velo

pmen

t.

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Geo

rgia

M

oE

EU

UN

EP

2. E

nhan

cem

ent o

f ca

pabi

litie

s and

aut

horit

ies o

f na

tiona

lly re

spon

sibl

e en

tity

on th

e cl

imat

e ch

ange

ac

tiviti

es

• M

oE (H

ydro

met

eoro

logy

an

d C

limat

e C

hang

e A

dmin

istra

tion

and

the

Dep

artm

ent o

f Int

egra

ted

Envi

ronm

enta

l M

anag

emen

t).

• Pa

rtici

patio

n in

inte

rnat

iona

l mee

tings

an

d w

orks

hops

; •

Invi

tatio

n of

inte

rnat

iona

l exp

erts

to

disc

uss d

iffer

ent i

tem

s on

clim

ate

chan

ge;

• In

situ

trai

ning

of s

taff

mem

bers

in th

e pr

oces

s of s

trate

gic

plan

ning

and

el

abor

atio

n of

con

cept

ns.

• M

oE

(Hyd

rom

eteo

rolo

gy

and

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

Adm

inis

tratio

n).

• C

apab

ilitie

s and

aut

horit

ies o

f na

tiona

lly d

esig

nate

d op

erat

iona

l ent

ity to

the

UN

FCC

C a

nd n

atio

nal f

ocal

po

ints

are

enh

ance

d;

• G

eorg

ian

dele

gatio

n is

fully

en

gage

d in

neg

otia

tion

proc

ess.

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Geo

rgia

U

NFC

CC

In

tern

atio

nal

dono

rs (U

ND

P,

UN

EP, W

B)

Diff

eren

t EU

pr

ogra

mm

es

(Eur

opeA

id)

3. L

ocal

cap

acity

-bui

ldin

g in

G

eorg

ia fo

r the

eff

icie

nt

impl

emen

tatio

n of

UN

FCC

C

prin

cipl

es a

nd p

artic

ipat

ion

in

glob

al p

roce

sses

• M

oE ;

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy

• M

inis

try o

f Eco

nom

ic

Dev

elop

men

t ;

• M

inis

try o

f Agr

icul

ture

;

• Fa

cilit

atio

n of

the

esta

blis

hmen

t of l

ocal

po

tent

ial i

n al

l clim

ate-

chan

ge re

late

d m

inis

tries

; •

App

oint

men

t of c

limat

e-ch

ange

rela

ted

resp

onsi

ble

cont

act p

erso

n ha

ving

• M

oE

(Hyd

rom

eteo

rolo

gy

and

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

Adm

inis

tratio

n).

•

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Geo

rgia

In

tern

atio

nal

dono

rs (U

ND

P,

UN

EP, W

B)

• M

inis

try o

f Hea

lth, L

abou

r an

d So

cial

Pro

tect

ion;

•

Min

istry

of E

duca

tion

and

Scie

nce.

clea

rly d

efin

ed o

blig

atio

ns in

all

rele

vant

m

inis

tries

; •

Con

stan

tly in

form

ing

resp

onsi

ble

pers

ons i

n re

leva

nt m

inis

tries

on

poss

ible

adv

erse

impa

cts o

f clim

ate

chan

ge a

nd p

rovi

ding

reco

mm

enda

tions

to

con

side

r the

se it

ems i

n th

e pl

anni

ng

proc

ess.

Diff

eren

t EU

pr

ogra

mm

es

(Eur

opeA

id)

Bila

tera

l don

ors

4. Im

prov

emen

t of l

egis

lativ

e ba

sis f

or th

e im

plem

enta

tion

of U

NFC

CC

maj

or

oblig

atio

ns (G

HG

inve

ntor

y,

GH

G m

itiga

tion,

car

ryin

g ou

t of

ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s) a

nd

the

Kyo

to P

roto

col

mec

hani

sms a

nd it

s ad

just

men

t to

EU le

gisl

ativ

e ba

sis

• Pa

rliam

ent o

f G

eorg

ia;

• M

oE.

Prep

arat

ion

of re

com

men

datio

ns to

intro

duce

am

endm

ents

at t

he le

gisl

ativ

e ba

sis n

eces

sary

fo

r : •

Prov

isio

n of

ann

ual i

nven

tory

of

GH

Gs;

•

Impl

emen

tatio

n of

ada

ptat

ion

clim

ate

chan

ge m

easu

res;

•

Prom

otio

n to

the

adop

tion

and

use

of re

new

able

sour

ces o

f ene

rgy;

•

Car

ryin

g ou

t of e

nerg

y sa

ving

po

licy;

•

Effic

ient

intro

duct

ion

of C

DM

.

• Pa

rliam

ent o

f G

eorg

ia;

• M

oE.

Legi

slat

ive

basi

s exi

stin

g in

the

coun

try p

rovi

des:

•

Ann

ual u

nder

taki

ng o

f GH

G

inve

ntor

y.

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s and

thei

r im

plem

enta

tion;

•

Miti

gatio

n of

GH

G e

mis

sion

s;

• Ef

ficie

nt im

plem

enta

tion

of

CD

M.

• In

trodu

ctio

n of

cle

an a

nd

adap

tatio

n te

chno

logi

es.

MoE

(E

urop

e A

id)

Bila

tera

l don

ors

(Net

herla

nds)

Nat

iona

l GH

G I

nven

tory

5.

Per

iodi

c co

nduc

t of

Nat

iona

l GH

G In

vent

ory

with

loca

l cap

acity

(inc

ludi

ng

finan

cing

). (D

etai

ls se

e In

In

vent

ory

stra

tegy

, Cha

pter

2)

• M

oE ;

• D

epar

tmen

t of S

tatis

tics

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

•

Priv

ate

sect

or in

volv

ed in

C

DM

.

• Pe

rman

ent r

enew

al a

nd e

xten

sion

of

rost

er o

f ex

perts

(nat

iona

l and

in

tern

atio

nal);

•

Ana

lyse

s and

ass

essm

ent o

f tre

nds f

or

key

GH

G so

urce

s;

• Im

prov

emen

t of t

he o

vera

ll m

anag

emen

t of

the

inve

ntor

y pr

oces

s ;

• R

eche

ckin

g of

Geo

rgia

’s S

NC

nat

iona

l in

vent

ory

repo

rt an

d do

cum

entin

g of

fin

ding

s (Q

A/Q

C);

•

Impr

ovem

ent o

f dat

a ar

chiv

ing

and

pres

enta

tion

syst

em a

nd p

erm

anen

t up

datin

g of

the

arch

ive;

•

Perm

anen

t upd

atin

g of

the

GH

G

inve

ntor

y st

rate

gy.

• M

oE .

•

GH

G in

vent

ory

is u

nder

take

n in

th

e co

untry

on

the

perio

dic

(ann

ual)

basi

s.

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Geo

rgia

6. D

evel

opm

ent a

nd

impr

ovem

ent o

f sep

arat

e el

emen

ts o

f GH

G in

vent

ory

(QA

/QC

, unc

erta

inty

an

alys

is, d

ata

colle

ctio

n sy

stem

, nat

iona

l em

issi

on

fact

ors,

etc)

In th

e fr

amew

ork

• M

oE ;

• D

epar

tmen

t of S

tatis

tics

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

•

Priv

ate

sect

or in

volv

ed in

C

DM

;

• Im

prov

emen

t of a

ctiv

ity d

ata

and

emis

sion

s fac

tors

for t

he p

riorit

y se

ctor

s;

• U

pdat

ing

of th

e G

HG

inve

ntor

y na

tiona

l m

anua

l; •

Impl

emen

tatio

n of

the

QA

/QC

pr

oced

ure

for t

he k

ey se

ctor

s;

• M

oE.

•

Inve

ntor

y an

nual

repo

rts a

re

publ

ishe

d;

• Pr

oces

s is s

usta

inab

le a

nd

relia

bilit

y of

inve

ntor

y re

sults

in

crea

ses f

rom

yea

r to

year

.

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Geo

rgia

G

EF/U

ND

P IP

CC

U

NFC

CC

Eu

rope

Aid

of d

iffer

ent t

arge

t pro

ject

s (s

ee. I

nven

tory

stra

tegy

, C

hapt

er 2

)

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

nat

iona

l inv

ento

ry re

port.

Ass

essm

ent

of v

ulne

rabi

lity

to

clim

ate

chan

ge a

nd a

dapt

atio

n

7.C

reat

ion

of p

erm

anen

t m

onito

ring

syst

em o

n cl

imat

e ch

ange

and

its i

mpa

ct in

pr

otec

ted

terr

itorie

s of

Ded

oplis

tska

ro re

gion

, on

glac

iers

feed

ing

larg

e riv

ers

(Tza

nner

, Kor

ulda

shi,

Dol

lra,

Kirt

isho

), in

the

Bla

ck S

ea

coas

tal z

one

(adv

isab

le th

e So

khum

i seg

men

t), in

the

Lent

ekhi

regi

on a

nd in

upp

er

reac

hes o

f lar

ge ri

vers

whe

re

the

run-

off i

s ini

tially

fo

rmed

)

• N

atio

nal E

nviro

nmen

tal

Age

ncy.

•

Intro

duct

ion

of p

erm

anen

t (or

per

iodi

c)

mon

itorin

g sy

stem

s on

the

impa

ct o

f cl

imat

e ch

ange

(gla

cier

s, hi

gh m

ount

ain

regi

ons,

arid

zon

es, B

lack

Sea

coa

stal

zo

ne o

n th

e R

ioni

Riv

er);

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

repo

rts o

n cu

rren

t tre

nds

and

antic

ipat

ed h

azar

ds;

• A

sses

smen

t of c

limat

e re

late

d ris

ks;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

reco

mm

enda

tions

on

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res i

n or

der t

o av

oid

antic

ipat

ed ri

sks a

nd h

azar

ds;

• Pr

ovid

ing

rele

vant

min

istri

es w

ith th

e re

quire

d in

form

atio

n.

• N

atio

nal

Envi

ronm

enta

l A

genc

y;

• M

oE;

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy

• M

inis

try o

f Ec

onom

ic

Dev

elop

men

t;

• M

inis

try o

f A

gric

ultu

re;

• M

inis

try o

f Hea

lth,

Labo

ur a

nd S

ocia

l Pr

otec

tion;

•

Min

istry

of

Cul

ture

, M

onum

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d Sp

ort.

• Pe

rman

ent m

onito

ring

of n

atur

al

ecos

yste

ms i

s car

ried

on;

• R

epor

ts a

re sy

stem

atic

ally

pr

epar

ed o

n th

e re

veal

ed im

pact

of

clim

ate

chan

ge o

n di

ffer

ent

ecos

yste

ms;

•

Ant

icip

ated

risk

s are

ass

esse

d an

d re

com

men

datio

ns a

re

prep

ared

to a

void

the

haza

rds;

•

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

is

info

rmed

on

curr

ent p

roce

ss.

WM

O

UN

EP

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Geo

rgia

8.En

ablin

g ad

apta

tion

to

clim

ate

chan

ge a

ctiv

ity in

the

coun

try (c

reat

ion

of re

leva

nt

resp

onsi

ble

entit

y, le

gisl

ativ

e ba

sis,

proj

ect p

ropo

sals

and

in

vest

men

t env

ironm

ent)

• G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

; •

Loca

l adm

inis

tratio

ns o

f vu

lner

able

regi

ons;

•

Farm

ers;

•

Loca

l pop

ulat

ion

and

busi

ness

repr

esen

tativ

es.

• C

reat

ion

of re

spon

sibl

e on

ada

ptat

ion

to

clim

ate

chan

ge e

ntity

; •

Prep

arat

ion

of le

gisl

ativ

e ba

sis

faci

litat

ing

the

impl

emen

tatio

n of

ad

apta

tion

mea

sure

s;

• En

ablin

g th

e pe

rman

ent u

pdat

ing

of

clim

ate

chan

ge a

dapt

atio

n st

rate

gy.

• G

over

nmen

t of

G

eorg

ia;

• M

oE.

• N

atio

nal e

ntity

resp

onsi

ble

for

carr

ying

out

of a

dapt

atio

n m

easu

res i

s set

up;

•

Legi

slat

ive

basi

s fac

ilita

ting

the

impl

emen

tatio

n of

ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s is c

reat

ed;

• A

dapt

atio

n st

rate

gy is

sy

stem

atic

ally

revi

ewed

and

up

date

d.

GEF

/UN

DP

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Geo

rgia

EU

9.A

sses

smen

t of p

ossi

ble

impa

ct o

f clim

ate

chan

ge o

n G

eorg

ia’s

wat

er re

sour

ces

(Mtk

vari,

Rio

ni, E

ngur

i, A

ragv

i and

oth

er la

rge

river

s, la

kes a

nd g

laci

ers)

• M

oE (W

ater

Res

ourc

es

Man

agem

ent

Adm

inis

tratio

n);

• M

oE (H

ydro

met

eoro

logy

an

d C

limat

e C

hang

e);

• N

atio

nal E

nviro

nmen

tal

Age

ncy;

•

Inst

itute

s of

Hyd

rom

eteo

rolo

gy a

nd

Geo

grap

hy.

• A

sses

smen

t of a

ntic

ipat

ed im

pact

of

clim

ate

chan

ge o

n th

e w

ater

reso

urce

s us

ing

WEA

P m

odel

; •

Prep

arat

ion

of re

com

men

datio

ns fo

r the

pr

oper

man

agem

ent o

f par

ticul

arly

vu

lner

able

rive

rs (f

lood

s, w

ater

def

icit)

.

• M

oE (

Wat

er

Res

ourc

es

Man

agem

ent

Adm

inis

tratio

n).

• Th

e im

pact

of c

limat

e ch

ange

on

Geo

rgia

’s w

ater

reso

urce

s is

asse

ssed

; •

Ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s are

pr

epar

ed fo

r the

mos

t vul

nera

ble

river

s (pr

oper

man

agem

ent,

avoi

ding

floo

d ris

ks a

nd w

ater

de

ficit)

.

Geo

rgia

’s T

hird

N

atio

nal

Com

mun

icat

ion

Tran

sbou

ndar

y riv

ers

prog

ram

mes

; R

egio

nal

proj

ect o

n cl

imat

e ch

ange

; W

ater

C

onve

ntio

n 10

.Ass

essm

ent o

f pos

sibl

e im

pact

of c

limat

e ch

ange

and

•

Min

istry

of H

ealth

, Lab

our

and

Soci

al P

rote

ctio

n;

• A

sses

smen

t of h

eat w

ave

trend

in

Geo

rgia

’s la

rge

citie

s and

tour

ist

• M

inis

try o

f Hea

lth,

Labo

ur a

nd S

ocia

l •

The

trend

of h

eat w

ave

recu

rren

ce is

ass

esse

d fo

r lar

ge

UN

EP

WH

O

in p

artic

ular

hea

t wav

es o

n th

e H

ealth

and

Tou

rism

se

ctor

s

• M

oE;

• D

epar

tmen

t of T

ouris

m.

regi

ons;

•

Ass

essm

ent o

f nee

ds a

nd te

chni

cal

capa

bilit

ies f

or th

e cr

eatio

n of

Ear

ly

War

ning

Sys

tem

; •

prep

arat

ion

of p

ortfo

lio o

f re

com

men

datio

ns to

pro

tect

esp

ecia

lly

vuln

erab

le c

ateg

orie

s of p

opul

atio

n (e

lder

ly, y

oung

chi

ldre

n);

• C

ontin

uatio

n of

obs

erva

tions

on

epid

emio

logi

cal d

isea

ses (

mal

aria

, le

ishm

ania

sis)

; •

Prep

arat

ion

of re

com

men

datio

ns in

cas

e of

risi

ng tr

end

of e

pide

mio

logi

cal

dise

ases

.

Prot

ectio

n;

• M

oE.

citie

s and

tour

ist r

egio

ns;

• In

cas

e of

risi

ng tr

end

in h

eat

wav

e re

curr

ence

re

com

men

datio

ns a

re p

repa

red

for t

he m

ost v

ulne

rabl

e ca

tego

ries o

f pop

ulat

ion;

•

In c

ase

of ri

sing

tren

d in

ep

idem

iolo

gica

l dis

ease

s (m

alar

ia, l

eish

man

iasi

s) re

leva

nt

reco

mm

enda

tions

are

pre

pare

d;

• R

ecom

men

datio

ns a

re

syst

emat

ical

ly c

omm

unic

ated

to

popu

latio

n.

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Geo

rgia

11. D

raw

ing

of in

vest

men

ts

and

faci

litat

ing

the

impl

emen

tatio

n of

ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s in

Ded

oplis

tska

ro

regi

on. F

inan

cing

of

adap

tatio

n pr

ojec

ts is

alre

ady

initi

ated

(se

e c

limat

e ch

ange

ad

apta

tion

stra

tegy

in

Ded

oplis

tska

ro re

gion

)

• Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion;

•

Gov

ernm

ent

of G

eorg

ia;

• Fa

rmer

s;

• Pr

otec

ted

terr

itorie

s loc

al.

Adm

inis

tratio

n

• Pe

rman

ent m

onito

ring

of a

dver

se;

impa

cts o

f clim

ate

chan

ge;

• R

ehab

ilita

tion

of w

ind-

brea

kers

; •

Esta

blis

hing

of e

nerg

y fo

rest

s;

• R

ehab

ilita

tion

of e

rode

d so

il;

• M

obili

satio

n of

farm

ers a

ssoc

iatio

ns;

• Fa

cilit

atio

n o

f pro

per

man

agem

ent o

f pa

stur

es ;

•

Cre

atio

n of

eff

icie

nt sc

hem

e of

irrig

atio

n sy

stem

s and

thei

r reh

abili

tatio

n.

• Lo

cal

adm

inis

tratio

n;

• Po

pula

tion.

• W

ind

brea

ker a

re re

habi

litat

ed;

• Pi

lot e

nerg

y gr

oves

are

pla

nned

; •

Pack

age

of m

easu

res t

o re

habi

litat

e th

e de

grad

ed la

nds i

s pr

epar

ed;

• Fa

rmer

s ass

ocia

tions

are

cre

ated

an

d m

obili

sed;

•

Prop

er m

anag

emen

t of p

astu

res

is in

trodu

ced;

•

Irrig

atio

n sy

stem

s are

re

habi

litat

ed p

rimar

ily a

t the

hi

gh ri

sk se

ctio

ns.

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Geo

rgia

G

TZ,

Gov

ernm

ent

of

Ger

man

y G

over

nmen

t of

Ita

ly;

Loca

l ad

min

istra

tion

Farm

ers

12. A

sses

smen

t of p

ossi

ble

impa

ct o

f clim

ate

chan

ge o

n ar

id re

gion

s tha

t was

not

in

clud

ed in

the

SNC

and

pr

epar

atio

n of

re

com

men

datio

ns o

n ad

apta

tion

mea

sure

s (K

vem

o K

artli

, Gar

e K

akhe

ti).

• M

oE;

• R

elev

ant N

GO

s;

• R

esea

rch

Inst

itute

s;

• Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tions

; •

Farm

ers;

•

Popu

latio

n.

• A

sses

smen

t of a

rid re

gion

s whi

ch c

ould

be

par

ticul

arly

vul

nera

ble

to c

limat

e ch

ange

; •

Prep

arat

ion

of a

dapt

atio

n m

easu

res

portf

olio

and

con

cret

e pr

ojec

t pro

posa

ls;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

ada

ptat

ion

stra

tegy

for

vu

lner

able

regi

ons a

nd e

cosy

stem

s;

• A

ttrac

tion

of lo

cal a

nd in

tern

atio

nal

dono

rs to

impl

emen

t ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s;

• C

reat

ion

of lo

cal p

oten

tial t

o pl

an a

nd

impl

emen

t ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s.

• Lo

cal

adm

inis

tratio

ns;

• Fa

rmer

s;

• G

over

nmen

t of

G

eorg

ia.

• V

ulne

rabi

lity

of a

ll ar

id re

gion

s in

Geo

rgia

aff

ecte

d by

clim

ate

chan

ge is

ass

esse

d;

• Fo

r the

mos

t vul

nera

ble

regi

ons

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res p

ortfo

lio

and

stra

tegy

are

pre

pare

d;

• In

situ

the

pote

ntia

l is c

reat

ed to

im

plem

ent t

he a

dapt

atio

n m

easu

res.

Geo

rgia

’s T

hird

N

atio

nal

Com

mun

icat

ion

GEF

G

TZ

13.A

ttrac

tion

of in

vest

men

ts

and

prom

otio

n of

the

impl

emen

tatio

n of

ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s in

Lent

ekhi

regi

on

(see

Ada

ptat

ion

to c

limat

e ch

ange

stra

tegy

in th

e

• G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

; •

Loca

l adm

inis

tratio

ns

(Mun

icip

ality

); •

Popu

latio

n;

• N

GO

s.

• C

reat

ion

in th

e re

gion

of l

ands

lide

Mon

itorin

g an

d Ea

rly W

arni

ng S

yste

m;

• C

reat

ion

of ri

ver f

lood

s Mon

itorin

g an

d Ea

rly W

arni

ng S

yste

m;

• Es

tabl

ishm

ent o

f pop

ulat

ion

• Lo

cal

adm

inis

tratio

ns;

• Po

pula

tion;

•

NG

Os.

• La

ndsl

ides

mon

itorin

g se

rvic

e is

es

tabl

ishe

d lo

cally

; •

Popu

latio

n in

land

slid

e en

dang

ered

are

as a

re c

onst

antly

in

form

ed o

n po

tent

ial r

isks

and

CD

M

adap

tatio

n fu

nd

Loca

l ad

min

istra

tions

Lent

ekhi

regi

on)

(hou

seho

lds)

aw

aren

ess r

aisi

ng

(info

rmin

g) sy

stem

and

trai

ning

s on

prev

entio

n m

easu

res;

•

Impl

emen

tatio

n of

pilo

t pro

ject

s to

avoi

d la

ndsl

ides

(e.g

. arr

ange

men

t of s

mal

l ha

zeln

ut p

lant

atio

ns);

• R

ehab

ilita

tion

and

prop

er m

anag

emen

t of

mos

t dam

aged

fore

st a

reas

; •

Res

tora

tion

of l

ands

lides

pro

tect

ion

func

tion

of fo

rest

in p

lace

s not

aff

ecte

d ea

rlier

by

land

slid

es a

nd p

lann

ing

of

new

plo

ts;

• A

ccur

ate

inve

ntor

y of

clim

ate

indu

ced

land

slid

es a

nd p

repa

ratio

n of

re

com

men

datio

n m

easu

res.

mea

sure

s, th

at c

ould

be

take

n by

th

emse

lves

to a

void

the

dang

er;

• Pi

lot p

roje

cts o

n pl

antin

g ha

zeln

ut, a

s a so

il fix

ing

plan

t, ar

e im

plem

ente

d;

• R

ehab

ilita

tion/

rest

orat

ion

of

mos

t dam

aged

fore

st p

lots

is

syst

emat

ical

ly c

arrie

d ou

t;

14.A

sses

smen

t of p

ossi

ble

impa

ct o

f clim

ate

chan

ge o

n G

eorg

ia’s

hig

h m

ount

ain

regi

ons t

hat w

as n

ot in

clud

ed

in th

e SN

C a

nd p

repa

ratio

n of

reco

mm

enda

tions

on

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res (

Zem

o Sv

anet

i, A

djar

a m

ount

ains

)

• M

oE.

• R

elev

ant N

GO

s. •

Res

earc

h In

stitu

te.

• Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion.

•

Popu

latio

n.

• A

sses

smen

t of c

limat

e ch

ange

risk

in

high

mou

ntai

n re

gion

s;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s po

rtfol

io a

nd c

oncr

ete

proj

ect p

ropo

sals

; •

Prep

arat

ion

of v

ulne

rabl

e re

gion

or

ecos

yste

m a

dapt

atio

n st

rate

gy;

• A

ttrac

tion

of lo

cal a

nd in

tern

atio

nal

dono

rs to

impl

emen

t ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s;

• C

reat

ion

of lo

cal p

oten

tial t

o pl

an a

nd

impl

emen

t ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s.

• Lo

cal

adm

inis

tratio

n;

• G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

.

• R

isks

rela

ted

to c

limat

e ch

ange

ar

e re

veal

ed in

hig

h m

ount

ain

zone

; •

Ada

ptat

ion

stra

tegy

is d

evel

oped

fo

r eac

h vu

lner

able

regi

on;

• Lo

cal p

oten

tial i

s cre

ated

to p

lan

and

impl

emen

t the

ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s.

Geo

rgia

’s T

hird

N

atio

nal

Com

mun

icat

ion

GEF

G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

15. P

rom

otin

g th

e im

plem

enta

tion

of a

dapt

atio

n st

rate

gy fo

r the

Bla

ck S

ea

coas

tal z

one

(see

Ada

ptat

ion

to c

limat

e ch

ange

stra

tegy

for

Geo

rgia

’s B

lack

Sea

coa

stal

zo

ne, C

hapt

er 4

.2.1

.)

• N

atio

nal E

nviro

nmen

tal

Age

ncy;

•

Coa

stal

pro

tect

ion

serv

ice;

•

Loca

l adm

inis

tratio

ns o

f Po

ti an

d B

atum

i; •

Kol

khet

i pro

tect

ed a

rea

Adm

inis

tratio

n.

• Sy

stem

atic

ally

info

rmin

g lo

cal

adm

inis

tratio

n on

ong

oing

pro

cess

es

and

thei

r eco

nom

ic o

utco

mes

; •

Cre

atio

n of

mon

itorin

g an

d ea

rly

war

ning

syst

em in

the

Rio

ni D

elta

(B

lack

Sea

leve

l ris

e an

d st

orm

inte

nsity

in

crea

se);

• Se

tting

up

of p

erm

anen

t Ste

erin

g C

omm

ittee

for p

lann

ing

and

impl

emen

tatio

n of

ada

ptat

ion

to c

limat

e ch

ange

mea

sure

s;

• Im

plem

entin

g se

a co

ast p

rote

ctio

n m

easu

res i

n th

e R

ioni

Del

ta;

• Im

plem

entin

g se

a co

ast p

rote

ctio

n m

easu

res a

t the

Adl

ia-B

atum

i sec

tion

to

prot

ect t

he B

atum

i coa

stal

zon

e;

• Pr

epar

atio

n an

d im

plem

enta

tion

of

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res f

or th

e Pa

liast

omi

• C

oast

al p

rote

ctio

n se

rvic

e;

• K

olkh

eti p

rote

cted

ar

ea

adm

inis

tratio

n.

• Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion

is

perm

anen

tly in

form

ed o

f clim

ate

chan

ge p

roce

sses

and

thei

r po

ssib

le im

pact

s;

• Th

e se

a le

vel r

ise

and

stor

m

inte

nsity

mon

itorin

g sy

stem

is

crea

ted,

incl

udin

g an

ear

ly

war

ning

syst

em to

info

rm th

e po

pula

tion

and

rele

vant

bod

ies

in c

ase

of d

isas

trous

eve

nts;

•

Syst

emat

ic c

oast

pro

tect

ion

mea

sure

s are

car

ried

out i

n R

ioni

Del

ta;

• A

por

tfolio

of a

dapt

atio

n m

easu

res i

s pre

pare

d fo

r the

La

ke P

alia

stom

i; •

The

poss

ible

impa

ct o

f an

ticip

ated

clim

ate

chan

ge is

GEF

G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

G

over

nmen

t of

Net

herla

nds

CD

M

Ada

ptat

ion

fund

s

Lake

; •

Ass

essm

ent o

f clim

ate

chan

ge im

pact

on

tour

ism

dev

elop

men

t (he

at w

aves

, wat

er

tem

pera

ture

, bea

ch d

egra

datio

n) a

nd

prep

arat

ion

of a

dapt

atio

n m

easu

res;

•

Con

side

ratio

n fo

r ant

icip

ated

clim

ate

chan

ge im

pact

in th

e lo

cal i

nfra

stru

ctur

e de

velo

pmen

t pro

cess

.

cons

ider

ed in

the

infr

astru

ctur

e pl

anni

ng a

nd d

evel

opm

ent i

n R

ioni

Del

ta.

Mit

igat

ion

of G

HG

em

issi

ons

16.P

rom

otin

g m

axim

um a

ctiv

atio

n of

CD

M in

Geo

rgia

(see

Ene

rgy

sect

or d

evel

opm

ent s

trate

gy,

Cha

pter

5.2

)

• M

oE;

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

•

Min

istry

of F

inan

ce;

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

.

• Se

lect

ion

of se

ctor

s pro

vidi

ng m

axim

um

effic

ienc

y in

pro

gram

mat

ic a

nd se

ctor

al

appr

oach

(win

d, b

iom

ass,

sola

r ene

rgy,

en

ergy

eff

icie

ncy

in re

side

ntia

l sec

tor,

was

te, f

ores

ts);

• Pr

omot

ing

priv

ate

sect

or a

ctiv

atio

n (e

spec

ially

ban

king

sect

or) i

n C

DM

; •

Impr

ovem

ent o

f CD

M p

rom

otin

g le

gisl

ativ

e ba

sis.

• M

oE (D

NA

).

• Pr

ojec

ts p

repa

red

in th

e fr

amew

ork

of C

DM

are

im

plem

ente

d;

• N

ew p

roje

cts a

re p

repa

red.

Net

herla

nds,

Aus

tria,

G

erm

an, I

taly

, Ja

pan,

B

elgi

um,

Den

mar

k,

UN

DP,

EB

RD

17. I

dent

ifica

tion

of re

new

able

en

ergy

shar

e in

ele

ctric

ity

gene

ratio

n w

hich

cou

ld b

e ac

hiev

ed b

y G

eorg

ia to

202

0-20

25

(see

Ene

rgy

sect

or d

evel

opm

ent

stra

tegy

, Cha

pter

5.1

.) an

d pr

omot

ion

to in

vest

men

t attr

actio

n fo

r the

ach

ieve

men

t of t

his s

hare

• M

oE;

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

•

Priv

ate

sect

or

enga

ged

in

rene

wab

le e

nerg

y;

• La

rge

ener

gy

cons

umer

s.

• En

hanc

emen

t of a

ctiv

ities

with

pot

entia

l fo

reig

n in

vest

ors a

nd lo

cal p

rivat

e se

ctor

to

impl

emen

t exi

stin

g in

vest

men

t pr

ojec

ts in

rene

wab

le e

nerg

y;

• A

sses

smen

t of r

egio

nal m

arke

t (A

zerb

aija

n, A

rmen

ia, T

urke

y)

deve

lopm

ent p

ossi

bilit

y fo

r pow

er

sect

or.

• M

inis

try o

f En

ergy

; •

MoE

.

• Th

e sh

are

of re

new

able

ene

rgy,

w

hich

cou

ld b

e ac

hiev

ed b

y G

eorg

ia in

pow

er g

ener

atio

n, is

as

sess

ed;

• R

elev

ant p

roje

ct p

ropo

sals

are

pr

epar

ed a

nd im

plem

ente

d.

Ren

ewab

le

ener

gy

revo

lvin

g fu

nd

(Geo

rgia

), A

ustri

a,

Nor

way

, Tu

rkey

18.D

eter

min

atio

n of

rene

wab

le

ener

gy sh

are

in h

eat g

ener

atio

n /

heat

con

sum

ptio

n, w

hich

cou

ld b

e ac

hiev

ed b

y G

eorg

ia to

202

0-20

25

and

prep

arat

ion

of c

orre

spon

ding

pr

ojec

t pro

posa

ls

• M

oE;

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

•

Priv

ate

sect

or

enga

ged

in

rene

wab

le e

nerg

y;

• N

GO

s.

• A

sses

smen

t of r

enew

able

hea

t ene

rgy

shar

e (s

olar

, geo

ther

mal

, bio

gas,

biom

ass)

whi

ch c

ould

be

arch

ived

to

2020

-202

5;

• U

pdat

ing

of e

xist

ing

proj

ect p

ropo

sal

base

and

pre

para

tion

of n

ew in

vest

men

t pr

ojec

ts;

• C

ontin

uatio

n of

act

iviti

es w

ith p

oten

tial

inve

stor

s (es

peci

ally

on

the

basi

s of

prog

ram

mat

ic a

ppro

ach)

.

• M

oE;

• Lo

cal

adm

inis

tratio

n of

re

gion

s;

• Th

e sh

are

of re

new

able

ene

rgy

that

cou

ld b

e ge

nera

ted

by

Geo

rgia

is a

sses

sed;

•

Rel

evan

t pro

ject

pro

posa

ls a

re

prep

ared

and

impl

emen

ted.

Prog

ram

mat

ic

CD

M

19.D

eter

min

atio

n of

ene

rgy

effic

ienc

y ta

rget

s for

ene

rgy

(pow

er a

nd h

eat)

cons

umpt

ion

• C

abin

et o

f Min

iste

rs;

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

•

Ener

gy E

ffic

ienc

y

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

ene

rgy

savi

ng

prog

ram

mes

; •

Prep

arat

ion

of re

com

men

datio

ns o

n

• En

ergy

Eff

icie

ncy

Cen

tre;

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

.

• Ex

cess

con

sum

ptio

n of

ene

rgy

in d

iffer

ent s

ecto

rs (r

esid

entia

l, in

dust

ry, e

tc.)

is e

stim

ated

;

Prog

ram

mat

ic

CD

M

sect

or w

hich

cou

ld b

e ac

hiev

ed b

y G

eorg

ia to

202

0-20

25 a

nd

prep

arat

ion

of ta

rget

ed p

roje

ct

prop

osal

s

Cen

tre;

• N

GO

s;

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

; •

Res

iden

tial s

ecto

r.

ener

gy sa

ving

mea

sure

s;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

reco

mm

enda

tions

on

ince

ntiv

es fo

r ene

rgy

savi

ng p

roce

ss;

• In

form

ing

publ

ic o

f the

eco

nom

ic

effic

ienc

y of

ene

rgy

savi

ng;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

spec

ific

proj

ect p

ropo

sals

(in

clud

ing

prog

ram

mat

ic a

ppro

ach)

and

at

tract

ion

of in

vest

men

ts.

•

Econ

omic

eff

icie

ncy

of v

ario

us

ener

gy sa

ving

mea

sure

s is

asse

ssed

; •

Proj

ect p

ropo

sals

on

ener

gy

effic

ienc

y ar

e pr

epar

ed.

20. S

treng

then

ing

(with

rele

vant

le

gisl

atio

n an

d in

cent

ives

) of

rene

wab

le e

nerg

y fu

nd a

nd c

reat

ion

of e

nerg

y ef

ficie

ncy

revo

lvin

g fu

nd

• G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

; •

Ban

king

sect

or.

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

reco

mm

enda

tions

to

stre

ngth

en th

e re

volv

ing

fund

and

to

prov

ide

its e

ffic

ient

ope

ratio

n.

• G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

; •

Ban

king

sect

or.

• Th

e R

enew

able

Ene

rgy

and

Ener

gy E

ffic

ienc

y R

evol

ving

Fu

nd is

enh

ance

d an

d ef

fect

ivel

y fin

ance

s rel

evan

t pr

ojec

ts.

Add

ition

al

finan

ce sh

ould

be

attr

acte

d fr

om

inte

rnat

iona

l fu

nds a

nd

gove

rnm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia

21. S

tudy

ing

the

loca

l cap

acity

for

deve

lopm

ent o

f bio

mas

s (en

ergy

fo

rest

s and

oth

er b

iom

ass)

sect

or

Ass

essm

ent o

f its

role

in p

rovi

ding

G

eorg

ia’s

ene

rgy

syst

em

inde

pend

ence

. Det

erm

inat

ion

of th

e po

ssib

le sh

are

of b

iom

ass i

n he

at

supp

ly to

202

0-20

25

• M

oE.

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy.

•

Cab

inet

of M

inis

ter.

• Lo

cal

adm

inis

tratio

ns.

• N

GO

s.

• A

ttrac

tion

of in

vest

men

ts to

impl

emen

t pi

lot p

roje

ct o

n bi

omas

s ene

rgy

fore

st

(Ded

oplis

tska

ro re

gion

); •

Pre

para

tion

of n

ew p

roje

ct p

ropo

sals

on

effe

ctiv

e ut

iliza

tion

of b

iom

ass e

nerg

y (in

clud

ing

woo

d) in

hea

t gen

erat

ion;

•

Ass

essm

ent o

f act

ual p

oten

tial o

f thi

s re

sour

ce in

Geo

rgia

.

• M

oE.

•

Geo

rgia

’s e

nerg

y fo

rest

and

ot

her b

iom

ass p

oten

tial i

s as

sess

ed;

• B

iom

ass d

evel

opm

ent s

trate

gy is

w

orke

d ou

t.

GTZ

, G

over

nmen

t of

Italy

, Loc

al

mun

icip

aliti

es

(Zug

didi

, D

edop

lists

karo

)

22.A

sses

smen

t of G

HG

miti

gatio

n po

tent

ial i

n ro

ad tr

ansp

ort s

ecto

r •

MoE

; •

Min

istry

of

Econ

omic

D

evel

opm

ent;

• M

unic

ipal

ities

of

larg

e ci

ties.

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

pro

ject

pro

posa

ls

(opt

imis

atio

n of

traf

fic n

etw

ork

in la

rge

citie

s, in

crea

se o

f the

shar

e of

mot

or

park

on

lique

fied

gas p

rovi

ding

co

rres

pond

ing

safe

ty m

easu

res)

to

redu

ce G

HG

em

issi

ons f

rom

tran

spor

t se

ctor

; •

Attr

actio

n of

inve

stm

ents

to im

plem

ent

pilo

t pro

ject

s

• M

inis

try o

f Ec

onom

ic

Dev

elop

men

t (T

rans

port

Dep

artm

ent);

•

Mun

icip

aliti

es o

f la

rge

citie

s.

• G

HG

miti

gatio

n st

rate

gy fo

r tra

nspo

rtatio

n se

ctor

is p

repa

red;

•

Pilo

t pro

ject

s on

the

GH

G

emis

sion

s aba

tem

ent f

rom

the

trans

porta

tion

sect

or a

re

prep

ared

and

impl

emen

ted

CD

M, G

EF,

Mun

icip

aliti

es

of u

rban

are

as

Cle

an a

nd

adap

tati

on t

echn

olog

ies

deve

lopm

ent

and

tran

sfer

23

.Pro

mot

ing

(by

rem

ovin

g ba

rrie

rs) t

he d

evel

opm

ent o

f in

dige

nous

tech

nolo

gies

and

tra

nsfe

r of i

nnov

ativ

e fo

reig

n te

chno

logi

es a

nd th

eir a

dopt

ion

aim

ed a

t the

miti

gatio

n of

GH

Gs

and

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res a

s wel

l

• G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

; •

MoE

; •

Min

istry

of

Econ

omic

D

evel

opm

ent;

• M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

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sses

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t of

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m

itiga

tion

and

adap

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logi

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• Id

entif

icat

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rs h

ampe

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trans

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f new

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and

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com

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ove

thes

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• Es

tabl

ishm

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f ind

igen

ous

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nolo

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d to

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ttrac

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or th

eir

deve

lopm

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• G

over

nmen

t of

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rgia

; •

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or;

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oE.

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ore

proj

ects

are

impl

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ted

adop

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up-to

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e en

viro

nmen

tally

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are

be

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deve

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mm

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l priv

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or

• N

GO

s. P

ubli

c A

war

enes

s 24

.Edu

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n, tr

aini

ng a

nd ra

isin

g pu

blic

aw

aren

ess (

see

educ

atio

n tra

inin

g an

d pu

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aw

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, Cha

pter

6.2

)

• Pu

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scho

ol st

uden

ts;

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ache

rs a

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ctor

s;

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ofes

sion

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ager

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; •

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y m

aker

s;

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perts

; •

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s-m

edia

; •

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ines

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; •

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tegr

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ate-

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ge re

late

d to

pics

into

edu

catio

n pr

ogra

mm

es;

• Tr

aini

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f sci

entif

ic, t

echn

ical

and

m

anag

eria

l per

sonn

el to

ens

ure

the

impl

emen

tatio

n of

UN

FCC

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rticl

e 6;

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f pa

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patio

n of

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t gro

ups a

nd st

akeh

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in c

limat

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repa

ratio

n an

d di

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of in

form

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n o

n cl

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es ta

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aren

ess (

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n);

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t of p

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aker

s aw

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pos

sibl

e re

sults

of

clim

ate

chan

ge.

• M

oE;

• M

inis

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f Ed

ucat

ion

and

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nce;

•

NG

Os.

• N

atio

nal r

oste

r of e

xper

ts in

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ors i

s con

tinuo

usly

upd

atin

g;

• In

scho

ols a

nd a

t the

rele

vant

fa

culti

es (C

hem

istry

, Bio

logy

, G

eogr

aphy

, Mod

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of

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limat

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ph

enom

enon

and

its

impl

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are

stud

ied;

•

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y m

aker

s are

syst

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ly

info

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of l

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t res

ults

.

UN

FCC

C

UN

EP

UN

DP

Euro

peA

id

Gov

ernm

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f G

eorg

ia

Bila

tera

l don

ors

(Net

herla

nds,

Ger

man

y,

Aus

tria,

N

orw

ay)

Long

-term

stra

tegy

(a

fter 2

020)

•

Tran

sfer

of G

eorg

ia’s

ec

onom

y to

the

sust

aina

ble

deve

lopm

ent p

rinci

ples

; •

Wor

king

out

and

im

plem

enta

tion

of th

e N

atio

nal P

lan

on th

e po

ssib

le

miti

gatio

n of

GH

Gs.

• M

oE.

G

oG,

Inte

rnat

iona

l do

nors

 

 

94

Chapter 4

Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change 4.1. Vulnerability assessments This section of NC considers ongoing and future climate change in the territory of Georgia and assesses the vulnerability of three priority regions selected during the stocktaking exercise. These regions are the Black Sea coastal zone, Dedoplistskaro (East Georgia) and Kvemo Svaneti (mountainous region). 4.1.1 Assessment of climate change

To investigate the climate change process in Georgia, a survey of climate parameters trends was undertaken for the whole territory and for the priority regions in particular. Changes in air temperature and precipitation were examined, in line with the requirements of various tasks, and other climate elements were assessed as well. These assessments were carried out in two stages: (1) assessment of current changes in climate on the basis of existing statistical data and (2) their long-range forecast for different terms of anticipated change in global socio-economic development. Assessing current change in climate elements. Current changes in climate in Georgia, and in priority regions in particular, were assessed mainly by statistical methods. Mean air temperature and temperature extremes, precipitation, relative humidity, wetting/moistening regimes and wind were investigated, as well as trends of extreme events (high winds, drought, landslides, floods, etc.), characteristic of each of the examined regions. These trends are discussed in more detail in the respective vulnerability assessments of separate regions. In the first stage the trends of change in mean annual air temperature, mean annual sums of precipitation, and in the moistening regime, were estimated between the two periods of time: 1955–1970 and 1990-2005. To describe the wetting regime along with the sums of precipitation, the complex index widely used in agriculture meteorology – the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC)[1] was used. The validated database for 1955-2006 meteorological observations was provided by the Georgian Environment Agency, being the responsible body for the observational network in Georgia. This statistical analysis revealed increasing trends in both mean annual air temperature and annual sums of precipitation from the first (1955-1970) to the second (1990-2005) period of time in all three priority regions, accompanied by a decrease in HTC in the Dedoplistskaro region, and its increase in the other two priority regions. At the same time, the changes in air temperature absolute minima and absolute maxima were examined. The analysis indicates a warming trend in these regions both in winter and summer seasons. The obtained results are summarised in Table 4.1.1.1.

 

 

95

Table 4.1.1.1. Change of climatic elements in priority regions, 1955-2005

Designation of periods: I – (1955-1970); II – (1990-2005). At the same time, the rates of air temperature and precipitation change in priority regions were assessed considering four time intervals of different duration (1906-2005; 1966-2005; 1985-2005 and 1995-2005). This survey demonstrated an exceptionally steep rise in annual air temperature in all three priority regions over the last 20 years. It is of great interest to compare the trends of the climate parameters discussed above between priority regions and the entire territory of Georgia (according to average statistical values of weather stations in Western and Eastern Georgia separately). The relevant data is presented in Table 4.1.1.2.

Table 4.1.1.2. Change in air temperature and precipitation between climate norms until 1960 and average values of

the 1957-2006 period Climate region Mean air

temperature (0C)

Average maximum

temperature (0C)

Average minimum

temperature (0C)

Annual sums of precipitation

(mm) Western Georgia 0.2 0.3 0.6 -27 Eastern Georgia 0.3 0.7 0.3 41

This table shows that annual precipitation trends in the Western and Eastern parts of Georgia differ from each other and do not coincide with the results obtained for local conditions of selected regions. For example, the annual sums of precipitation show a decreasing trend in Western Georgia (average value), while locally in Poti (the Black Sea coast) and Lentekhi (mountain zone), until the present time, a small increase is still being observed. Assessment of anticipated changes in climate parameters. To forecast the possible changes of climate elements in the future, two tools for climate change prediction were used: the Regional Climate Model PRECIS (with a resolution of 25 km x 25 km) and the statistical software MAGICC/SCENGEN (with a resolution of 600 km x 600 km). Results obtained under the PRECIS model Methodology. In the framework of the SNC preparation guidelines, various options of the PRECIS model [2] were used by different countries (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia) for diverse scenarios of global socio-economic development, including two GCMs (HadAM3P and ECHAM 4). This process was arranged and directed online by the Hadley Centre, by whom this

Priority region (meteorological

station)

Average values of mean annual air temperature for

respective periods (0C)

Average values of annual sums of precipitation by

period (mm)

Average value of air temperature

absolute minima (0C)

Average value of air temperature

absolute maxima (0C)

HTC

I II II - I I II II - I

II-I (%)

I II II-I I II II-I (%)

II-I (%)

The Black Sea coastal zone (Poti)

14.4 14.6 0.2 1837 2078 241 13 -13.0 -10.0 3.0 33.8 35.4 1.6 +0.6 (20%)

Kvemo Svaneti (Lentekhi)

9.6 10.0 0.4 1256 1360 104 8 -14.5 -13.8 0.7 34.7 35.2 0.5 +0.6 (28%)

Dedoplistskaro region (Dedoplistskaro)

10.6 11.2 0.6 586 622 36 6 -11.5 -11.5 0.0 32.7 34.8 2.1 -0.2 (-15%)

 

 

96

software was created and which along with the training of experts, transferred this software gratis to these countries. The Hadley Centre also defined in advance the area of model validity and boundary conditions. Two runs were implemented by Georgia for the B2 scenario of global socio-economic development: boundary conditions using the ERA40 database to process the data for the past (1961-1990), and the EHAM4 global model. For the A2 scenario, Azerbaijan ran three versions of the ECHAM4 model: 1961-1990 (baseline period which is used to correct future forecasts), 2020-2050, and 2070-2100. With the Hadley Centre, Armenia ran two versions of the HadAM3P global model for the past period of 1961-1990, and for the future 2070-2100 periods, and also for the A2 scenario of global socio-economic development. The Hadley Centre and Azerbaijani colleagues transferred to Georgia the results of the above mentioned runs. Finally, as the correction of ECHAM4 results run by the B2 scenario could not be corrected by the results of the ERA run for the past in Georgia, the results obtained under HadAM3P and ECHAM4 were mainly forecast for the A2 scenario. Evaluated parameters. Despite the fact that the PRECIS model incorporates about 180 different parameters, the air temperature and precipitation were mainly assessed for the projection of climate change. However, in case of concrete models (WEAP, CropWat), other parameters (wind velocity, solar radiation, humidity, etc.) were used as well. Obtained results. As mentioned above, the climate parameters of the baseline period (1961-1990) were assessed for three different boundary conditions: ERA40 (Georgia), HadAM3P (Armenia) and ECHAM4 (Azerbaijan), and the obtained results were validated by comparing to actual observations (CRU). The differences were used to correct the forecast. Data on the mean annual temperature and precipitation obtained under actual observations and calculations, using the PRECIS model for all three boundary conditions, are presented in Figures 4.1.1.1 and 4.1.1.2.

Figure 4.1.1.1. Calculated by PRECIS and actually-observed climate parameters for Western Georgia

                                                             From the standpoint of emissions concentration the A2 family of global socio-economic development scenarios represent the most pessimistic option. According to this scenario, population is permanently growing and the rate of economic development is relatively low and depends on regional interests and trends.  

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

temperatura dasavleT saqarTveloSi

obs

ERA40

ECHAM

HADCM

0,0

500,0

1000,0

1500,0

2000,0

2500,0

n al eqebi dasa vleT saqarTveloSi

obs

ERA40

ECHAM

HADCM

Temperature in Western Georgia (C) Precipitation in Western Georgia (mm)

 

 

97

Figure 4.1.1.2. Calculated by PRECIS and actually-observed climate parameters for Eastern Georgia As can be seen in Figure 4.1.1.1, both the temperature and precipitation, calculated with all three boundary conditions for Western Georgia, are smaller compared to real observations. This comparison was carried out according to season for the separate meteorological stations, and it reveals that for the majority of stations, the values calculated by the model are in sufficiently good agreement with the observations, though there are some exceptions where the difference is marked. For example, for the Lentekhi station, divergence in temperature goes up to 70C, and as for precipitation, the most obvious discrepancy was revealed in the Black Sea coastal zone, where the values of precipitation calculated by the PRECIS model are much smaller than the observed data. In particular, the calculated sums of precipitation in Poti are about half, and in Batumi they are 2.5 times smaller, than observed data. In Eastern Georgia (Fig. 4.1.1.2) the trend in air temperature is the same as in the Western part of the country, and the actual observed data exceeded the simulated data obtained from PRECIS results for different boundary conditions. However, this discrepancy is not observed in the precipitation results. The climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) were assessed to 2100 using both global climate models HadAM3P and ECHAM4 (A2 scenario) both for the entire territory of Georgia (Western and Eastern part separately) and for the priority regions. The trends of each parameter are evaluated according to seasons. The assessed forecasts of climate change under the HadAM3P model (A2 scenario) for Western and Eastern parts of Georgia are given in Table 4.1.1.3.

Table 4.1.1.3. Change in air temperature and precipitation to 2100 in Western and Eastern Georgia (HadAM3P)

Region Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual

Climate element T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

Western Georgia Baseline period 9.1 372 19.3 463 10.5 566 -0.6 573 10.9 1554Anticipated change Δ -1.0 50 4.0 -175 2 -50 2.0 100 1.8 -30 2100 8.1 422 23.3 288 12.5 516 1.4 673 12.7 1524

Eastern Georgia Baseline climate period 10.9 200 20.1 224 13.1 144 3.4 98 13.3 664 Anticipated Change Δ 2.5 -50 6.5 -125 2.5 -100 2.5 -50 3.5 -70 2100 13.4 150 26.6 99 15.6 44 5.9 48 16.8 594

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

obs

ERA40

ECHAM

HADCM

temperatura aRmosavleT

saqarTvelo Pnaleqebi aRmosavleT saqarTvelo

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

obs

ERA40

ECHAM

HADCM

Temperature in East Georgia (C) Precipitation in East Georgia (mm)

 

 

98

The assessed forecast of climate change under the ECHAM4 model (A2 scenario) for Western and Eastern parts of Georgia are given in Table 4.1.1.4.

Table 4.1.1.4. Change in air temperature and precipitation to 2100 in Western and Eastern

Georgia (ECHAM4)

In Tables 4.1.1.3 and 4.1.1.4 the averaged data of Georgia’s meteorological network are used as an initial material for the baseline period. Selected stations (9 in West Georgia and 11 in East Georgia) are evenly distributed at the territory of Georgia and they reflect its climate features. Results obtained under the MAGICC/SCENGEN models To forecast the anticipated values of climate parameters in the future, besides the PRECIS model, the MAGICC/SCENGEN software was also used which actually unites two models – MAGICC and SCENGEN, the combination of which provides for the projection of climate elements (temperature and precipitation) on the regional scale [3]. The MAGICC model enables the extraction of global climate data for different socio-economic scenarios, and the SCENGEN applies these data and downscale them to the regional level. At the regional scale, the model predicts the change in mean annual, seasonal and monthly values of temperature and precipitation for any selected period of time (up to 2100). Methodology. For the creation of future climate change scenarios in the territory of Georgia, values were assessed for the baseline period (1961-1990), calculated using all 17 global models, which were then compared to the observation database CRU (averaged on the 60km x 60km grid). The deviation of examined models from the CRU is given in Annex IV. On the basis of this Table, the best (most reliable) models have been selected for each season and for each parameter for the Western and Eastern parts of Georgia, separately. Among these models are global models HadAM3P and ECHAM4 used in PRECIS. As the SCENGEN, owing to its low resolution, produces only two grids for Georgia, with co-ordinates 40.0-45.00N and 40.0-45.00E (Western Georgia), and 40.0-45.00N and 45.0-50.00E (Eastern Georgia), relevant future scenarios were assessed for those territories differing in climate. The observational database (CRU) of the MAGICC/SCENGEN was used as baseline data. In Table 4.1.1.5 the models selected from Annex IV are presented for West and East Georgia which most precisely describe the regional season and climate parameters.

Region Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual

Climate element T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

Western Georgia Baseline period 9.1 372 19.3 463 10.5 566 -0.6 573 10.9 1554Anticipated change Δ 3.5 -9 5.0 -54 4.0 -9 4.5 108 3.4 36 2100 12.6 363 24.3 409 14.5 557 3.9 681 14.3 1590

Eastern Georgia Baseline period 10.9 200 20.1 224 13.1 144 3.4 98 13.3 664 Anticipated change Δ 4.2 -72 6.0 0 4.0 45 5.0 -45 3.9 -72 2100 15.1 128 26.1 224 17.1 189 8.4 53 17.2 592

 

 

99

Table 4.1.1.5. Models which most precisely describe climate parameters in Western and Eastern Georgia

Region

Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual ΔT

0C ΔQ %

ΔT

0C ΔQ %

ΔT

0C ΔQ %

ΔT

0C ΔQ %

ΔT 0C ΔQ %

Western Georgia

BMRC98 IAP_97 GISS95 CSI296 HAD300 IAP_97 LMD_98 CCCL99 GFDL90 HAD300 0 0.5 0 -10.4 -0.2 -0.8 -0.1 2 0.2 1.7

Eastern Georgia

CSM_98 BMRC98

CSM_98 GISS95 CSM_98 MRI_96 ECH498 CSI296 CSM_98 HAD300

0.3 0.5 0.1 7 0.4 4 -0.1 16.7 0.5 13.7

As can be seen from this table, the annual averages of precipitation in both parts of Georgia are most precisely described by the HAD300 global model. The same result was obtained by PRECIS. As to the temperature, the most precise models give different results for West and East Georgia. The deviation given by the models compared to actual data all over the territory of Georgia, both in Western and Eastern parts, are highest for East Georgia. It can be concluded that the selection of reference models from the examined 17 global models appears to be more complicated for Eastern Georgia. Figures 4.1.1.3 and 4.1.1.4 demonstrate the calculated and observed (CRU) values of temperature and precipitation. It can be seen from these figures that for the summer season, the simulated precipitation was less than observed, even in the best models, especially for Western Georgia. In all other seasons, and for the annual mean, the modelled values exceeded observed values, or were very close to them. Different deflections, according to seasons and models, did not affect the annual deviation, by direct summing, as the best models regarding seasonal and annual parameters are different.

Figure 4.1.1.3. Simulated and observed values of mean temperature (0C) and precipitation (mm/day)

Figure 4.1.1.3 shows that the simulated temperature in Western Georgia always exceeds observed values, and in Eastern Georgia the exception is in the spring, while in summer they are equal.                                                              Difference in precipitation values are presented in percentages. The differences in temperature and precipitation in this table are designated respectively by ΔT and ΔQ. 

d a s a v l e T s a q a r T v e l o

0

0 . 5

1

1 . 5

2

2 . 5

3

M A M J J A S O N D J F A N N U A L

pre

s (m

m/d

ay)

o b s

A a R m o s a v l e T s a q a r T v e l o

0

0 . 2

0 . 4

0 . 6

0 . 8

1

1 . 2

1 . 4

M A M J J A S O N D J F A N N U A L

Pre

c (m

m/d

ay)

o b s

West Georgia (mm) East Georgia (mm)

 

 

100

Using these selected (reference) models, anticipated climate change scenarios have been calculated for each illustrative case, from all four families (A1, A2, B1, B2) of socio-economic development scenario. The results obtained are presented in Figure 4.1.1.4.

Figure 4.1.1.4. Temperature and annual sums of precipitation change to 2100 in West and East Georgia for different emissions scenarios

Assessment indicates that the maximum increases of global temperature typical for the A group of scenarios are entirely reflected in the territory of Georgia. The pattern of global temperature increase, with some inter-annual variations, is preserved both in the western and the eastern parts of Georgia. It is remarkable that in Eastern Georgia the maximum increase of temperature is anticipated for winter, while in Western Georgia it is anticipated in summer. Unfortunately, sufficiently good results obtained under the climate models for temperature do not correspond to the results derived for precipitation. Of precipitation, according to MAGICC/SCENGEN, it can only be said definitely that a decrease in precipitation is anticipated for the entire territory of Georgia, and this process has slightly different inter-annual distributions in the Western and Eastern parts of the country. In Western Georgia, according to various scenarios, a maximum decrease is anticipated more in transition seasons (spring and autumn), while in Eastern Georgia a maximum decrease is anticipated in summer and autumn. It should be mentioned here that the percentage change, indicated in the figures, stands for the average by territory precipitation, which - especially in Western Georgia from the Black Sea coast to the Likhi Range – varies in a range of numerical values differing by an order of magnitude. In such conditions, the error is very significant, though the trends of the process are reliable. Assessed parameters. Only temperature and precipitation have been assessed using MAGICC/SCENGEN. Obtained results. Projected values to 2100 for temperature and precipitation under MAGICC/SCENGEN, using the best global models and the same scenario (A2) for each season

t e m p e r a t u r i s c v l i l e b a 2 1 0 0 w l i s a T v i s

d a s a v l e T s a q a r T v e l o S i

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1 0

MA

MJJA

SON

DJF

ANN

UAL

Tem

p 0

C

A 1

A 2

B 1

B 2

n a l e q e b i s j a m i s p r o c e n t u l i c v l i l e b a 2 1 0 0

w l i s a T v i s d a s a v l e T s a q a r T v e l o S i

- 60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

MA M JJA S O N

pre

c (

%)

A 1

A 2

B 1

B 2

West Georgia (0C) West Georgia (mm)

t e m p e r a t u r i s c v l i l e b a 2 1 0 0 w l i s a T v i s

a R m o s a v l e T s a q a r T v e l o S i

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MA

MJJA

SON

DJF

ANN

UAL

Tem

p 0

C

A 1

A 2

B1

B2

n a l e q e b i s j a m i s p r o c e n t u l i c v l i l e b a 2 1 0 0

w l i s a T v i s a R m o s a v l e T s a q a r T v e l o S i

-12 0

-10 0

-8 0

-6 0

-4 0

-2 0

0

2 0

MA M JJA SO N

pre

c (

%)

A 1

A 2

B 1

B 2

East Georgia (0C) East Georgia (mm)

 

 

101

and both regions (Western and Eastern), are presented in Table 4.1.1.6. The baseline period data were taken from the CRU database, included in the SCENGEN.

Table 4.1.1.6. Projected values to 2100 of temperature and precipitation in Western and Eastern Georgia under MAGICC/SCENGEN

Region Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual

Climate element T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

Western Georgia

Baseline period 6.6 189 17.7 234 8.8 216 -3.9 180 7.3 840Anticipated change Δ 5.6 -72 7.7 -36 4.1 -99 4.3 -27 5.2 -1102100 12.2 117 25.4 198 12.9 117 0.4 153 12.5 730

Eastern Georgia

Baseline period 7.6 117 20.8 117 10 108 -1.5 72 9.2 476Anticipated change Δ 7.1 -72 5.2 -90 5.8 -81 6.1 9 4.9 -1062100 14.7 45 26 27 15.8 27 4.6 81 14.1 370

Final climate change scenario for Georgia. To construct the anticipated final climate change scenario in Georgia the averaged values obtained under all three models (HadAM3P, ECHAM4, MAGICC/SCENGEN) were used. For the selection of reliable baseline values, the data taken from the SCENGEN database (1961-1990) were averaged with the actual data of observations, carried out in the same period of time at 20 stations of the Georgian hydrometeorological network, used in Tables 4.1.1.3 and 4.1.1.4. The final scenarios are presented in Table 4.1.1.7.

Table 4.1.1.7. Anticipated to 2100 temperature and precipitation scenarios for Western and

Eastern Georgia Region Season Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual

Parameter T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

T 0C

Q mm

Western Georgia Baseline period 7.9 281 18.5 348 9.7 391 -2.3 377 9.1 1197 Anticipated change Δ 4.6 -40 5.6 -88 3.4 -52.7 3.6 104 3.5 -70.02100 12.4 241 24.1 260 13.0 338 1.4 481 12.6 1127

Eastern Georgia Baseline period 9.3 158 20.5 170 11.6 126 1.0 85 11.3 570 Anticipated change Δ 4.6 -65 5.9 -72 4.1 -45 4.5 -289 4.1 -83 2100 13.9 93 26.4 98 15.7 81 5.5 56 15.4 487

In summary, it can be concluded that comparing the climate change scenarios obtained under all available methodologies, both in Western and Eastern Georgia, an increase for the years up to 2100, in the mean annual temperature of 3-50C, will be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation by about 9-13%. This process will be especially sharp in summer, when both the temperature increase and precipitation decrease trends are starker than in other seasons. 4.1.2. Black Sea coastal zone The Georgian Black sea coastal zone is considered as the most vulnerable to the climate change ecosystem in Georgia having at the same time serious anthropogenic press particularly in the Deltas of rivers Rioni and Chorokhi. Description of the Black Sea coastal zone. The Georgian Black Sea coastal zone represents the central part of the Caucasian coast of the Black Sea, with an essentially different climate, relief and oceanographic conditions from other parts. The cities of Batumi, Poti and Sokhumi are

 

 

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located here with their ports, as well as the Supsa and Kulevi sea oil terminals, the Batumi Airport, and many other settlements, comprising a core area of economic and tourist recreational activities in the country. A highly developed coastal infrastructure exists here, with a dense network of railways and highways, about 60% of which are stretched along the sea coast. Such a great number of settlements, and multisectoral infrastructure from the old times, created a high population density (about 30 persons / km2), which will grow even more in future (2030-2050). Georgia’s coastal zone is a part of a shelf where the impacts of river run-off and submarine waters are spreading. In addition, this coastal zone includes a piece of land which experiences the impact of the dynamic processes of the sea during their peak activity (storm surges of rare frequency, rough seas, seiches, currents and eustasies, etc.). The marine boundary of the coastal zone follows a 130-meter isobath, and only in the mouths of large rivers does it deviate into the sea. In the Kolkheti Lowland, its width is 0.2-0.5 km, widening to 5-30 km in the mouths of the large rivers, and declining to 1-2 meters where the mountain slopes descend into the sea. The above-mentioned parts of sea and land comprise the coastal zone of Georgia, the length of which is 320 km, the average width 10 km, the maximum 30 km (the Rioni Delta, shelves of Gudauta and Ochamchire), and the area is 330 km2, of which 95% is marine in nature. Georgia’s coastal zone has a complex outline and relief, being partitioned by many tributaries, among which the Chorokhi, Rioni, Enguri, Kodori and Bzipi are the most important. These rivers, according to international classification, form the Black Sea coastal river type, the specific features of which are: catastrophic floods almost in all seasons, and rich sediment and intensive sedimentation processes in the mouths of glacier-fed rivers. The coastal zone is deeply intruded into the sea, where the river gorges descend by some kilometres to the bottom of the sea, in the form of an underwater canyon. In such portions, the river sediment produces spits, peninsulas and islands. At the same time, the accumulation processes are more intensive, where the rate of sinking of the coast is higher, and the sediment richer. The coastal zone cities with their ports are located on the largest peninsulas, and other areas of accumulation formation: Batumi (Chorokhi River Delta), Poti (Rioni River Delta), Sokhumi (Gumista River Delta) and Gagra (Bzipi River mouth area). Geological conditions in Georgia’s sea coastal zone are exceptionally complex. One of the reasons for this is the different directions and rates of section movements for its separate segments. The Caucasus is a tectonic wrinkle at the bottom of which lies the Kolkheti Lowland, between the deltas of the Enguri River and the Natanebi River, and its wings are the Greater and Smaller Caucasus Mountains. At the bottom of this wrinkle flows the Rioni River, the delta of which represents an area sinking at a maximum rate (C=5.6 mm/yr). To the east of this region, the rate of sinking decreases steadily, and near the city of Samtredia it equals 5.0 mm/yr. The submergence rate also declines to the north of the delta, to the mouth of the Enguri River, and in a southern direction to the mouth of the Natanebi River, where the lines of the tectonic break run through it. Outside these lines, according to an analysis of long-term observations of the sea level, the section movement is positive: in Batumi, Gudauta and Gagra it measures accordingly 12, 37 and 30 cm per century [5]. Climate conditions. The climate of the Black Sea coastal zone is humid subtropical. It forms predominantly as a result of interaction between wet air masses intruding from the Black Sea and the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus Range, and the western slopes of the Meskheti

 

 

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Range. The air movement regime is greatly affected by local circulation, resulting from the uneven heating of sea and land surfaces. This kind of circulation is manifested through breezes, monsoons (by modifications relevant to the Black Sea) and mountain-valley winds. Until the 1990s, an oceanographical and hydrometeorological observation network was sufficiently developed in this coastal zone. According to its data, the mean annual air temperature here varied in the range of 14.4-14.50C, that of the sea surface in the range of 15.8-16.60C, and annual sums of precipitation from 1400 mm (Sokhumi) to 2600 mm (Batumi). In the last half-century, hydrometeorological parameters of the Black Sea coastal zone underwent certain changes in relation to global climate change. Over the past century, up to the beginning of the 1990s, the air temperature here had decreased by 0.2-0.30C, though over the last 16 years it increased by 0.20C. Compared to the 1960s, precipitation in Poti for the last 15-20 years has grown by 13%, but in Batumi it has declined by 5%. Quite similar to the air temperature, the sea surface temperature had decreased by 1.00C, throughout 1924-1996. However, in 1990-2006 it had grown by 1.30C, as a result of which the cooling of the sea surface at present equals 0.80C, compared to the 1924 value. Sufficient potential for the development of wind power engineering exists in the Black Sea coastal zone (in deltas of the Rioni River and Chorokhi River). However, according to meteorological stations data, a definite change in the distribution of this renewable energy source is being observed (Figures 4.1.2.1 and 4.1.2.2).

Figure 4.1.2.1 Mean annual wind velocities (m/s)

Figure 4.1.2.2 Maximum annual wind velocities (m/s) Despite the fact that Georgia’s sea coastal zone is recognised as the calmest region of the Black Sea, nevertheless about once every 20 years a hurricane here accrues with a wind speed exceeding 47 m/s (Supsa meteorological station). Such gale-force winds predominantly (in 70% of cases) blow in from the sea and initiate powerful storm surges and rough seas (Table 4.1.2.1).

y = 0.1038x + 23.286R2 = 0.1751

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Table 4.1.2.1. Numerical and relative change on heavy storms

Years

Force of storms

4 Force 5 Force 6 Force 7 Force

Number % Number % Number % Number %

1961-1971 326 79,7 77 18,8 6 1,5 _

1987-1988 713 86,2 112 13,5 2 0,2 _

1997-2007 254 51,8 210 42,9 23 4,7 3 0,6

One of the climatic parameters important for the development of tourism here is the relative air humidity assessed for this region as well. Evaluations have shown that conditions tend to be better in Adjara, though according to Poti weather station data, the relative humidity is increasing even more (Figure 4.1.2.3).

Figure 4.1.2.3. Mean annual relative humidity (%)

Calculations carried out using the PRECIS regional climate model have shown that up to 2050 in the Black Sea coastal zone (Poti area), an increase in air temperature by 1.20C is anticipated to have a background precipitation decrease of 8-10%. These projected changes in climatic elements would affect the development of different branches of the economy of the Black Sea coastal zone, of which one of the most important is the tourist and recreational sector. At the same time, on the same sections of the coastal zone, e.g., at the Kobuleti, Batumi, and Sokhumi portions, an important role is given to agriculture, which is driven by the possibility of growing profitable crops. From this standpoint, the Kobuleti region is the most desired area of the coastal zone, where citrus plants are successfully grown (60% of Adjara’s overall harvest), in addition to tea, tung-trees, bamboo, etc. Among the annual crops, maize and vegetables are grown here. In the last several years, hazelnut has been intensively developed in the region. Given the predicted climate changes for this region due to global warming, the creation of better conditions for the production of oranges and lemons is anticipated, in view of their preference for warmer climates than the present environment. It should be expected that these plants will gradually supplant the less profitable tangerine tree. This substitution of plants would provide a doubling of income from citrus growing. The increase of the vegetation period for vegetables

y = 0.1968x + 75.213R2 = 0.6081

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from the current average of 224 days to 290 days could make it possible to supply the coastal resorts with fresh vegetables all year round. At the same time, accounting for the anticipated decrease in precipitation, the application of modern irrigation systems would be required in April–May and partially even in the summer months as well. Oceanographic conditions. During western gale-force winds a rise in sea level of 0.8 m is possible along Georgia’s Black Sea coastal zone, causing an increase in the level of water in the river mouths by 1.5-2.5 m, due to the blocking up of river run-off. During spring floods, the sea level is higher by 0.20-0.25 m compared to autumn, and in the case of storm surge super positioning, its increment exceeds 1.0-1.2 m. One of the most powerful and unpredictable events in the coastal zone is the seiche – causing a rapid variation of sea level generated by changes in atmospheric pressure, during which the sea level alters by 0.5-0.7 m in only one or a few hours. Assessment of the Black Sea coastal zone’s vulnerability to climate change. Georgia’s Black Sea coastal zone has a special importance for the country’s economy: it is the main foreign cargo turnover locale along this route. Special loading comes to the ports (Batumi, and especially Poti). Along the whole length (330 km) this zone is characterised by a dense population, a great number of industrial enterprises, and accordingly, by a developed infrastructure. Any variation of the marine ecosystem parameters caused by climate change seriously affects the infrastructure as well. Taking into account these circumstances, the Black Sea coastal zone’s vulnerability to climate change has been assessed, not only considering ecological, but social and economic factors as well, on the level of the whole infrastructure of the region. Methodology of vulnerability assessment. The sensitivity of the Black Sea coastal zone to atmospheric phenomena is demonstrated on the one hand through the peculiarities of global climate dynamics as a whole, and on the other hand, by the specific character of the Black Sea. The vulnerability assessment of Georgia’s Black Sea coastal zone to climate change is based upon a study of this region as a sea coastal ecosystem and as a socio-economic unit. Resulting from this, a vulnerability assessment was made on both levels, and performed according to the following scheme:

The phenomena (indicators) showing climate change impacts on the marine ecosystem were selected, the quality of expression of which was assessed quantitatively for different segments of the Black Sea coastal zone;

According to summary indicators of the total negative impact, four segments were identified as having the highest risk assessment. Their vulnerability was quantitatively estimated according to the sphere of negative impact, and its probability degree, assessed by so called vulnerability indicators.

The impact of global warming and climate change processes on such a marine ecosystem was assessed using a number of indicators, such as the manifestation powers, which characterise the vulnerability of this ecosystem:

Eustasy – the rise of ocean (sea) level relative to land as a result of water thermal expansion and a change of fresh water balance in favour of the ocean;

Storms – increase in frequency of storm surges and their power; Sedimentation – activation of solid sediment accumulation processes in glacier-fed

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Change in sea surface water temperature – essential changes in thermal characteristics of the aquatic environment (sea currents resulting from changes in vertical circulation and other dynamics and thermal features).

Eustasy. Eustasy – a most important indicator for the assessment of marine ecosystem vulnerability – was indicated instrumentally for the first time on the Black Sea in 1924-1925. As a eustasy depends on the thermal expansion of the sea, and on the variation of continental stocks of fresh water, it varies in different regions according to local conditions. The regional and local values of current eustasy of the Black Sea are determined by the latitude of the area and the dynamics and hydrothermal features of the sea. The Black Sea, since 1873, has been one of the best studied reservoirs using instrumental observations. According to present thinking, due to its huge thermal inertia, the sea is reacting to climate changes with a 22-25 year delay. Accordingly, as eustasies in the Black Sea have been going on since 1924-1925, the warming of its upper layer should have begun as early as 1895-1900. A statistical analysis of the long-term observational studies of Black Sea levels has shown that eustasy is highest on its western coast, where it reaches 3.0 mm annually, on the eastern coast 2.6 mm, at the northern coast 2.4 mm, and on the southern coast it doesn’t exceed 2.0 mm/yr. For the sea as a whole, eustasy until the 1990s equalled 2.5 mm/yr, on average, though up to the present decade it has accelerated to 2.6 mm/yr. Resulting from this, the absolute value of eustasy on the above-mentioned coasts, up to 2006, amounted to 24 cm, 21 cm, 19 cm and 16cm respectively. A relative eustasy, indicating a sea level rise compared to the land, exceeded by twice or more the above-mentioned values along the sinking coastal areas. A relative eustasy reaches especially dangerous values along the tectonic break line, stretching through the Black Sea hollow, which connects the Rioni and Danube Deltas. For this reason, relative eustasy in the deltas of these rivers is highest when it reaches, correspondingly, 64 cm, 70 cm and 76 cm. Due to this fact, since 2006, eustatic blocking up of, or sea transgression, has lengthened to 300-330 km at the Danube, and up to 40-45 km in the Rioni River bed. These processes have sharply increased the probability of catastrophic floods at the affected portions of these rivers. Storms surges. The increase in the frequency and force of storm surges is a second indicator of the sea coastline’s vulnerability. Storm surges have inflicted heavy losses on the seashore countries, especially in tropical and sub-tropical zones. Hydrometeorological observations carried out in these countries demonstrate that the force and frequency of storms for the last 20-30 years has increased almost by 50-70%. During these same years the phenomenon was more active in the cold period of the year, for about 70-75% of the most severe storms occurred in this winter period. As the power (destructive action) of storm surges is determined by the height of storm waves, which are a function of the location of the wave impact line and the depth of water in this zone, the value of this indicator increases according to the value of eustasy. Hence, it is anticipated that given the background of current climate change, the increase in the frequency and force of storms will continue in the near future. Sedimentation. The enhancement of the accumulation processes in river deltas represents a vulnerability indicator, reflecting the activation of sedimentation processes going on in the deltas of glacier-fed rivers. The reason for this is the intensive enrichment of river sediment with moraine material originating in the process of glacier retreat. The activation of sedimentation processes is clearly manifested in the deltas of glacier-fed rivers in the Caucasus. The coastal line in the mouth of the Rioni River’s new branch (Nabada) has intruded into the sea by about

 

 

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150 m; this branch has developed a delta with islands similar to the old (historic) mouth, significantly exceeding the previous one. These same processes would have developed in the Enguri River Delta, if the transportation of sediment had not been limited by the Enguri HPP high dam. Thermal indices of the sea. Sea thermal indices reflect a change in temperature of different layers of water. Before the “cold intermediate layer” of the Black Sea existed and a destabilisation of temperature regimes began in the 60-80 m thick layer above this zone, and since this process has taken place, a fall in sea surface temperature has been ongoing. According to observational data on the Black Sea surface layer temperature, almost everywhere in its coastal zone the temperature decrease has been going on since the beginning of the last century. Likewise, where the shelf is narrow and steep, this process is more active. Exceptions are the Crimean coast, adjusted to the Crimean strait, and the Caucasus coast, influenced by the Azov Sea. Warm water masses coming into the Black Sea from the Kerch strait are neutralising the impact of the cold medium layer at the above-mentioned coastal areas. A large part of the Black Sea surface from the beginning of the 20th century until the 1990s had been cooled with different intensities, causing the cooling of adjacent layers of air and the coastal land zone as well. This process has been characteristic of the climate cycles and fluctuations as a response of the ocean to the activation of dynamic processes in the atmosphere, and it has been a feature over the centuries. Since the end of the last century, in particular in 1995-2006, the trend of water and air temperature alteration in the Black Sea has changed in a positive direction. The change in thermal conditions of the aquatic environment has caused important alterations in the living conditions of the upper layers of the sea. According to these indicators, it has been established on the basis of available observational data (statistics) in Georgia and experts’ judgements (on a 5-mark system) that the river segments most vulnerable to the global warming process in Georgia’s Black Sea coastal zone are: Rioni River Delta, Chorokhi River Delta, the lower reaches of the Rioni River (the section between HPP dam and Samtredia), and the Sokhumi coastal area. Revealed changes in the marine ecosystem. From the start, changes observed in the marine ecosystem were assessed using the above-mentioned four indicators, and their properties were determined. In the Rioni River Delta, where Georgia’s most important city-port Poti is located, with its suburbs, port, and well-developed communications and residential networks, the quantitative values of all four indicators are especially high, caused by the peculiarities of the Rioni River Delta. Eustasy in this segment is expressed most of all, and its relative value had reached 0.7 m by the end of the last century. The reason for this is that it has the highest rate of sinking (C=0.56 m/century) of the entire coast. As a result, since 1925, or the beginning of observations on this indicator of the Black Sea, the sea level in the Rioni River Delta has been raised by 0.7 m relative to the coast. This causes an increase of Rioni River backwater curve heights up to 0.9 m during the spring floods, when the sea level is higher by 0.20-0.25 m, compared to the average value, and its length almost doubles. Accordingly, this drastically decreases the river-bed capacity and the reliability of earthed-up dams along the river banks. This means that floods, which were not dangerous for Poti in the 1920s, now seriously endanger the city. Clear evidence of this is the 1987 and 1997 floods which resulted in human casualties and in USD 13 million

 

 

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losses. An analysis of these facts shows that the 5% (confidence) floods, or the floods anticipated five times a century, which were not hazardous until the 1930s, have now become critically dangerous and are growing proportionally to the increase of the eustasy. Due to the fact that the eustasy here is the highest for the whole coastal line, its impact has been assessed as a maximum of 5 marks (see Table 4.1.2.3). This phenomenon is especially dangerous for the city of Poti, as it is standing 1.5-2.0 m below the level of the Rioni River. Storm surges are prominently expressed in this segment as well. During an observation period (1956-2007), the occurrence of storms here rose by 50-60%, and sea level by 0.7 m, resulting from the relative eustasy. This has drastically increased the potential danger coming from storm surges. The city of Poti is not protected from westerly storms in the former mouth of the Rioni River, and storms have already seriously damaged the suburbs of the city. During the initial stage of such surges, the water of the sea intrudes onto a branch of the river, resulting in a pouring out of excess water from the river bed, and in flooding of the suburbs. During the last half-century, such cases took place frequently, causing serious losses to residential areas and communications networks. Since the 1920s, as a result of storms and anthropogenic activity, the sea has washed away a 3.5 km wide coastal line, a large share of which has today been replaced by a hippodrome, residential buildings and crops. In case of a future (2030-2050) increase in the occurrence of storms and further rises of eustasy by 0.2-0.3 m, storm surges will become disastrous phenomena. As the frequency of storm surges in this segment has already increased by 60%, making it the highest value of the whole Black Sea coastal zone in Georgia, the impact of this indicator has been assessed as 5 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). Activation of sedimentation processes in deltas of glacier-fed rivers is sharply expressed in this segment because the Rioni River is fed by glacier run-off. In the last century the silting of both beds of the Rioni River (Poti Canal and Nabada) increased, intensifying the process of a decrease in their carrying capacity. Accordingly, the river bed inclination has decreased, the backwater curve has become higher and longer, and the capacity of the beds during the flood period, already complicated by eustasy conditions, has declined. Nowadays this indicator is important for its share in the vulnerability caused by the first two indicators, and its actions are increasing by almost 15-20%, the vulnerabilities caused by eustasies. In the Rioni River Delta, the impact of this indicator has been estimated as 4 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). Alterations in thermal indices of the sea are less pronounced in the Poti coastal zone, compared to the three indicators discussed above, though the surface layer temperature in this segment experiences certain fluctuations. In particular, a fall in temperature by 0.30C was observed from 1924 to 1990. However, in the period 1990-2006, the trend reversed, causing an increase in temperature by 1.60C. As a result of these processes, since 1970, the surface temperature of Lake Paliastomi, linked to the Black Sea, has grown by 0.60C. An alteration of sea temperature for this lake causes changes in other indices of the environment, and affects in the first place, the habitat of the plankton and several

The Rioni River Delta segment includes a coastal zone territory with an area of about 150 km2. The city of Poti is crossed by an old bed of the Rioni River, on its southern branch, over which the river has been flowing freely since 1939. In the succeeding years, to protect the city from disastrous floods, the river was redirected the shortest way into the sea, using the artificial bed of the Nabada. After this about 60% of the river’s maximum discharge (700-750 m3/c) had to run through the old river bed, stretching through the city. Since 1958, after the construction of a water-distributing dam, the old bed became silted again, to such an extent that its capacity was reduced to 40% (about 300 m3/c). Until the 1940s, the old branch joined the sea by two currents, forming the so called “Nikoladze Island,” built by the alluvium. At present, one of the branches is blocked by the sea, and the island has transformed into a peninsula. As a result of the feeding alluvium stopping at the blocked branch of the river, a rapid degradation of coastal zone has begun, followed by sea transgressions, while at the second branch in the Poti Port area, the intrusion of the land into the sea is still going on.

 

 

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kinds of fishes feeding on it. It also influences the duration of the recreational season, air characteristics (temperature, humidity), and consequently the vegetation period of the coastal zone, and heightens the probability of infectious diseases spreading. In spite of the possible variety and importance of these results for the marine ecosystem, the value of this indicator has been assessed only as 3 marks, because its impact in the Rioni River Delta is not too significant. The Chorokhi River Delta includes the coastal territory from the state border of Georgia, with the Republic of Turkey, to the mouth of the Korolistskali River. Its area occupies 85 km2, of which 40% is land. Its marine border passes over the limit of the Chorokhi River sediment spread, at a distance of 5.5-6.0 km from the coast. About 70% of the Delta land is occupied by the city of Batumi with its suburbs and the Adlia Airport, 15% by cropland and beaches, and the remaining part is covered by the bushes and marshes of the Kakhaberi Plain. The territory of the Delta is built from the alluvium of the Chorokhi River. The eustasy of the Chorokhi River Delta has been measured since 1924-1925. Here, its relative value reaches 0.15-0.20 m/century, seriously accelerating the process of coastal erosion. In 1970-2006, or in the period of acute activation of anthropogenic components of climate warming, the degradation process intensified markedly, causing the growth of the sea intrusion rate onto the land, from 2-3 m to 8-10 m annually. In 2005-2007, the sea washed away the internal motorway in Adlia, and directly threatened the Batumi Airport runway. In the near future, a further intensification of this process is anticipated. Despite the eustasy and anthropogenic mistakes (erroneous orientation of a concrete wall protecting the right bank of the Chorokhi River), such a forecast is based upon the construction of a cascade of reservoirs on the Chorokhi River, as a result of which the coast will not be able to get the Chorokhi alluvium for 450-500 years. In spite of the above-mentioned circumstances, the vulnerability caused by eustasy is much smaller here than in the Rioni River Delta, and hence the value of this indicator for the examined segment has been evaluated as 3 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). The increase in the power and frequency of storm surges is the direct result of an intensification of atmospheric circulation processes that were forcefully expressed during the 1960s-1970s. According to recent records, the frequency of storms in the cold period of the year, on this section of the Adlia-Batumi coast, has almost doubled. Due to the fact that the wave impact line has been progressing onto the land due to eustasy, the destructive action of storms has been increasing, proportionally to the rate of this line invasion. According to observations going on in this segment, during 2003-2006, or after the cessation of the Chorokhi River alluvium transit to the coast, the width of the land washed away by storms increased from 6-7 m, to 8-10 m annually. This second indicator has been observed here against a background of eustasy, as well as being significantly reinforced by it. Therefore, taking into account intensified storms and the washing off of this coastline; this indicator has been estimated as 5 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). Sedimentation in the glacier-fed rivers in this segment has not been expressed, as there are no glaciers or centennial stocks of snow in the Chorokhi River basin. Hence its action has been assessed as a zero mark (Table 4.1.2.3). Alterations of aquatic environment thermal indices are urgent and numerous in the Chorokhi Delta. In line with the changes in sea surface temperatures, the recreational features of the segment have also changed. In 1924-1990, the sea temperature here decreased by 1.00C, and in 1924-2006 by 0.80C. As for the Rioni River Delta, this fact is explained by an extraordinary warming of the climate throughout 1995-2006, exceeding by 0.6-0.90C temperature variations in

 

 

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other time periods. In this period, the air temperature in the area of breeze circulation rose, causing a prolongation of the recreational season and the vegetation period by 7 and 4 days respectively. This means an increase in positive temperature sums took place, which determined the quality of crop yields and dates of harvesting. At the same time, as a part of the shelf near Adlia is narrower and steeper, the impact of these thermal indices alterations were more pronounced there than on the Batumi coast, which has a relatively wider shelf. According to these alterations of the aquatic environment thermal indices, the habitat of living organisms is changing here as well. The value of this indicator and its anticipated impact in this segment are sufficiently high, resulting in an evaluation of 5 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). Lower reaches of the Rioni River (HPP dam – Samtredia portion). This segment of the lower reaches of the Rioni River includes riverain territory located in a zone of rare floods of the river (P<5%), which spread upward along the river, from the water-distributing unit to the upper limits of the eustatic blocking. The river here flows into the bed, restricted by earthed-up dams, the inclination of which does not exceed 1.0%. About 40 densely populated settlements are located in this segment, supplying Poti with agricultural products and a labour force. The flooded river burst the river dam in some places during the 1987 and 1997 floods. One of its branches joined Lake Paliastomi by a canal cut through the left bank dam, and its level rose to such an extent that it created serious damage to Poti. At present, the destroyed dams have not been repaired at a sufficiently reliable level, so that floods with even the 5% provision could gush over them; moreover, if this phenomenon takes place given the background of spring high levels and other events (surges, storms), it will promote this process. According to the predicted changes in the Rioni River upper reaches run-off to 2100, its increase by 26% is anticipated by 2050, and a decrease of 36% is then expected compared to the 2050 projected level (see Table 4.1.2.2).

Table 4.1.2.2. Average values of Rioni River discharge in the 30-year periods Period and version Total discharge

(billion m3/year) Change (%)

1956-1985 observed 1.310 2021-2050 ECHAM_A2 1.707 +26%

2021-2050 ECHAM_B2 1.649 2071-2100 ECHAM_A2 1.552 2071-2100 HADCM_A2 1.049 ‐36%

This table shows that two climate models give different values for the anticipated change in Rioni River run-off. For a seasonal distribution of discharge, the models give differing results as well.

In the middle of the last century, a 300 m long concrete dam was constructed along the right bank of the Chorokhi River for the protection of neighbouring territories from floods. This dam changed the direction of the river, causing a disruption of the Mejina River head, and entirely blocking the sediment filling up the coast. The seashore began eroding, as a result of which by the 1980s the coastal line in Adlia had moved towards the land by about 200 m. In following years, due to the acceleration of this process, the sea invaded the land by another 50 m, in 1998-2006.

 

 

 

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Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Mill

ion

m3

Figure 4.1.2.4. Averaged 30-year seasonal values of Rioni River discharge in the past and future This figure demonstrates that there is a discrepancy between models, mainly in the spring, for which the ECHAM4 model gives an increase in the discharge up to 2100, though the HadAM3P projects a decrease. Both models agree that the winter and autumn run-off will not decline (on the contrary it tends to increase), and the summer run-off will not grow to 2100 (the HADCM_A2 model projects significant decreases in the summer discharge). As suggested in [6], the changes in precipitation in the territory of Georgia are better described by the HAD300 family of global models. Most other global models agree as well, that in Western Georgia a decline in precipitation is anticipated. Therefore, the projected outcomes of the HadAM3P model’s decrease in discharge seem to be more realistic. It ought to be mentioned that this forecast is made without taking into account the glacier feeding of the run-off. The share of glacier feeding in the examined period is to be investigated separately. Eustasy in this segment is a factor defining sufficiently high vulnerabilities, due to the high rate of tectonic sinking (C = 0.5 m/century), with its relative value reaching 0.7 m/century. This relative eustasy has increased the water level an average of 0.6 m (suburbs of Samtredia) in the river bed, and thus has significantly (by 15-20%) decreased its capacity. Hazards related to the river have grown sharply. The river overflowing its bed, after flooding the adjoining settlements, could threaten the city of Poti, especially from Lake Paliastomi. Such an event already took place twice in 1987 and 1997. The relative eustasy in this segment seriously affects the decline of the riverbed carrying capacity, conductivity and conveyance, as the rise in sea level decreases the inclination of the river, and in this way accelerates the silting of the river bed by moraine sediment. Therefore, this indicator has been evaluated as 4 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). The impact of the increase in the force and frequency of storm surges is essential in the lower (10-12 km) part of the segment (water-distributing unit – the mouth of Tsivi River), but only during floods. However, as the overflow of riverain dams and the flooding of adjacent territories and the western suburbs of Poti at the meander section is possible, with a low level of probability (P≤0.01), the value in this indicator has been evaluated as 1 mark (Table 4.1.2.3). The silting of the riverbed by glacier sediment sharply decreases the riverbed carrying (discharge) capacity, and its inclination in an area affected by eustasy. The flooding of Samtredia’s riverain areas, and consequent losses and discomforts during floods (P≤5%), and

 

 

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especially during the spring flood period, are linked to this factor. Therefore, this indicator has been estimated as 4 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). Under the growing impact of all three indicators discussed above, about 35-40% of croplands in the Rioni River lower reaches are under constant threat of flooding and washing off. Resulting from this, a significant part of the local population (5-7,000), is often forced to settle and search for income in other places. This problem, first of all, is most urgent for settlements around the upper part of this river section, and some 10-12 km beyond the water-distributing unit (Patara Poti, Chaladidi, Sabazho, Sagvamichao, Sakorkio, etc.). In this part of the segment, the river flows in a sharply meandering bed. The radius of such meanders is equal to 0.5-0.8 km, on average, and for the smallest of them (the Sachochuo meander) it makes up only 0.25-0.30 km. Under centrifugal force, the flood level along the outer banks meanderings is 0.5-0.8 m higher than at the inner banks. Thus, the probability of river dam breakthrough is highest at such meanders, and dramatically the destruction of the outer banks of the Sachochuo and Sakorkio meanders caused great loss of human lives and great economic losses in 1987. A significant part (20-30%) of the lower portion of this segment is occupied by the Kolkheti National Park and other protected areas, which under the joint action of eustasy and riverbed silting processes, have been flooded several times and seriously damaged. The impact of sedimentation on the river bed in this segment is very high, as a result of which it has been estimated as 4 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). The alteration of aquatic environment thermal indices does not affect this segment, so its value has been evaluated as zero (Table 4.1.2.3). The Sokhumi coastal zone is one more segment where vulnerability is relatively high along the Black Sea coastal area. This segment is located on the landslide-affected subsiding-terrace, which is submerging into the sea at a rate of 0.2 m/century. The relative eustasy in this segment reaches 0.4 m/century. The city is crossed by the small river Sokhumura, in the delta of which a port was founded many centuries ago. At present, this river is used as a discharge for the residential wastewater of the city. During disastrous storm surges, this river has represented a dangerous route for the intrusion of sea into the city. All indicators have intensified on the Black Sea under the impact of current climate change, and are critical for the preservation of the Sokhumi coastal area, except sedimentation processes, as glacier-fed rivers and sedimentation processes are absent in this segment. Given the background of permanent sinking of the Sokhumi terrace, the eustasy creates growing problems for the city municipality. This is caused mainly by the constant decrease in the inclination of the residential wastewater discharge net. Resulting from a high relative eustasy (C = 0.4 m/century), the city beach has been intensively washed off, the width of which since the 1990s until the current period, presumably has decreased by 20-30% (the forecast was made on the basis of 1980-1990 records). The action of relative eustasy causes also the salinisation of soil on the plains located beyond the coastal dunes, as a result of the rise of sea level. This process brought about a drying up of citrus orchards, a significant part of which (about 4 ha) perished in the 1980s, and others experienced a serious decrease in productivity. This process is ongoingon at present. Evidently, the eustasy is not directly causing human casualties, and doesn’t destroy the coastal area. However, its results

 

 

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are bringing about significant losses, and that’s why this indicator (impact of eustasy) has been assessed as 4 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). The increase in the force and frequency of storm surges poses a constant discomfort to the population of sea shore residential areas, their lives and property permanently threatened by waves and surges. In addition, these processes often cause accidents in the coastal infrastructure, especially in communications and sewage networks, being more prolonged and more powerful, the longer is the storm. The frequency of such accidents has been growing in the last half-century, due to climate change, and the occurrence of more dangerous events for this segment has grown by almost 40%. As a result, if the number of storms in the cold period up to the 1950-1960s had been 3-5, for the current decade this feature has risen to 5-7. If these processes continue in the near future at such a rate, special measures will be required to protect the population of the coastal area. Considering this fact, the indicators discussed above for the present stage have been estimated as 4 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). Sedimentation in this segment doesn’t take place as the glacier-fed rivers here are absent and hence this indicator is equal to zero (Table 4.1.2.3). Alteration of aquatic environment thermal indices is quite topical in this segment. However, due to the fact that the Sokhumi shelf is much larger, the impact of this process is weaker than on the Batumi coastal zone, where the shelf is relatively narrow. Since 1925, the sea temperature in Sokhumi has decreased by 0.60C, though in an anomalously warm period of 1995-2006, the temperature of both the sea and the air had sharply risen by 1.0-1.50C. These phenomena have been followed by the prolongation of recreational and vegetation seasons, accordingly, by 8 and 4 days. The habitat of marine living organisms has been significantly altered as well. According to 1985-1990 expeditions’ data, the habitat horizon of some kinds of plankton has dropped by 5-10 m, causing a relevant displacement of habitats for some kinds of fishes, as well as a drastic decrease by 70-80% in kinds and numbers of marketable fish. The recreation and the marine ecosystem productivity are such important sectors for the Sokhumi coastal area, that the value of this indicator has been evaluated as 5 marks (Table 4.1.2.3). Here it can be noted that due to its geographical conditions, the Sokhumi coastal area still remains a region with minimum anthropogenic loading. Therefore, it could be regarded as the best territory in the Georgian section of the Black Sea coastal zone to establish a monitoring system for observing natural processes linked to climate change. In conclusion, it can be assumed that according to the climate indicators discussed above, the most vulnerable segment of the Georgian coastal zone is the Rioni River Delta, the vulnerability of which is evaluated with 17 marks. Compared to other segments, less vulnerable are the lower reaches of the Rioni River, whose total index is estimated with 9 marks.

 

 

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Table 4.1.2.3. Assessment of segments most vulnerable to climate change in the Georgian coastal zone

Segment Vulnerability indicators Vulnerability Assessment,

marks

Eustasy mark/increment,

m

Increase in storm surges

mark/increment, %

Sedimentation in deltas

mark/increment, m

Alteration of thermal indices

mark/since 1924/ since 1991, 0C

Rioni River Delta

5 / 0,7 m 5 / 60% 4 / 0,3 m 3 / 0.0 / 1.6 17

Chorokhi River Delta

3 / 0,2 m 5 / 60% 0 5 / -1.0 / 1.3 13

Rioni River lower reaches

4 / 0,4 m 1 / 40% 4 / 0,45 m 0 9

Sokhumi coastal zone

4 / 0,4 m 4 / 40% 0 5 / -0.6 13

Assessment of high risk segments vulnerability It is clear that the alteration of the marine ecosystem indicators discussed above seriously affects and will affect the social, economic and environmental spheres of the coastal zone. For each of these spheres, indicators were selected, on the basis of which the vulnerability of four segments connected to the alteration of marine ecosystem parameters, were assessed. The trends of these indicators define the success of chosen adaptation measures as well. The stated indicators are listed in Figure 4.1.2.5.

 

 

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Figure 4.1.2.5. Indicators of Black Sea coastal zone vulnerability Each of these indicators were estimated by experts in a 5-mark system, according to losses caused by them in the past, or anticipated in future. In particular:

1. Where the loss of human life (death, diseases) is expected, the indicator is evaluated with 5 marks. If the loss caused by a change of indicator in the projected period (2008-2050) is high, and the probability of happening varies in the range of 90-100%, it also gets 5 marks. In other cases, according to the occurrence of the probability and caused losses, the indicator is assessed with 4 marks (80-70%); 3 marks (60-50%); 2 marks (40-30%) and 1 mark ≤ 20%;

2. Economic losses and disintegration of infrastructure, causing starvation and migration, is estimated with a maximum of 4 marks. If the loss is inevitable or very high, it is assessed

Social Economic Environmental

Human casualties, injuries and stress

Migration of population from

zones destroyed by disastrous floods and

storm surges

Increase in infectious diseases cases

Damage and destruction of dwelling and

auxiliary buildings

Salinisation, flooding and washing away of

arable lands

Deterioration of coastal infrastructure (industrial facilities, ports, oil terminals, airports, railway and

highways) or its separate elements

Alteration of tourist and recreational

seasons

Alteration of vegetation seasons

Degradation of beaches

Degradation of hayfields, pastures

and forests

Swamping, salinisation and

washing away of strict nature reserves,

forest-parks and managed natural

reserves

Displacement of fish habitat and spawning

region due to the alteration of aquatic environment thermal

indices

 

 

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by 4 marks. In other cases, the indicator gets the following estimations: 3 marks (80-70%); 2 marks (60-40%) and 1 mark (≤ 30%).

3. Negative impacts on recreation and vegetation seasons, degradation of beaches, and dangers of infectious diseases spread, are estimated with a maximum of 3 marks. If the loss is inevitable, it is assessed with 3 marks. In other cases the indicator gets the following estimations: 2 marks (90-50%) and 1 mark (≤ 40%).

4. Degradation of forests and arable land, as a vulnerability indicator, is estimated by a maximum of 3 marks. If the loss is inevitable, it is assessed with 3 marks. In all other cases the indicator gets 2 marks;

5. Degradation of the natural environment (marine ecosystem, forest, protected territories, etc.) is assessed with 2 marks, for any probability.

Values of social, economic and environmental vulnerability indicators are given as follows: (Figures for all four examined segments and summary assessment of vulnerability are presented in Table 4.1.2.4.

Table 4.1.2.4. Georgia’s coastal zone high risk segments vulnerability assessment

N Segment Indicators

Vul

ner

abil

ity,

m

ark

Eustasy (I), Storm surges (II), Sedimentation in glacier-fed rivers delta (III) Alteration of sea thermal indices

(IV)

Hum

an c

asua

ltie

s, in

juri

es a

nd

stre

ss

Dam

age

and

dest

ruct

ion

of d

wel

lings

an

d au

xilia

ry b

uild

ings

Mig

rati

on o

f po

pula

tion

Was

hing

dow

n, s

alin

isat

ion

and

floo

ding

of

crop

land

Det

erio

rati

on o

f in

fras

truc

ture

or

fall

in it

s el

emen

ts e

ffic

ienc

y

Deg

rada

tion

of b

each

es

Sali

nisa

tion,

flo

odin

g or

was

hing

do

wn

of h

ayfi

elds

and

for

est

Deg

rada

tion

or d

estr

uctio

n of

en

viro

nmen

t (st

rict

or

man

aged

na

ture

res

erve

s, e

tc

Impa

ct o

n to

uris

t –re

crea

tiona

l an

d ve

geta

tion

seas

ons

Alt

erat

ion

of a

quat

ic

envi

ronm

ent i

ndic

es

Spr

ead

of in

fect

ious

dis

ease

s

1 Rioni River Delta 5 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 2 1 2 31

2 Chorokhi River Delta 5 4 4 4 2 3 1 0 3 1 2 29

3 Rioni River lower reaches 4 3 2 5 5 0 2 1 1 0 1

24

4 Sokhumi coastal area 4 3 2 1 2 2 0 0 2 1 3 20

5 Total 18 14 12 14 13 8 4 2 8 3 8 104

It can be derived from the obtained results that on Georgia’s coastal zone, the most vulnerable segment is the Rioni River Delta, and the least vulnerable of all the Sokhumi coastal area. So it can be concluded that a change of climate will seriously affect those segments, where due to anthropogenic or other natural phenomena, the initial equilibrium is being destroyed. We are faced with just a situation in the case of the Rioni River and the Chorokhi River Delta. The adaptation project proposals worked out for the deltas of the Rioni River and the Chorokhi River are given in the adaptation Chapter 4.2.1. 4.1.3. Dedoplistskaro region General Overview. The Dedoplistskaro region (DTR), having territories under threat of desertification, was selected as one of the priority regions for consideration in Georgia’s SNC. Climate change studies carried out for this region have shown that relevant adaptation measures

 

 

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should be urgently implemented in the region. The DTR is rich in fertile land and vast pastures, but is scarce in water resources and atmospheric precipitation. In summer, air temperature here reaches about 35-400C, which in combination with long dry periods often results in drought. This fact determines a high degree of vulnerability of the leading sector of the region’s economy – agriculture – to the current warming of the climate that makes it urgent to work out adaptation measures and ensure their implementation in the framework of adaptation projects. The territory of the DTR equals about 2,532 km2. The lowest point (90 m a.s.l.) is located near the mouth of the Alazani River in the Mingechaur Reservoir, and the highest point (1,001 m) is the top of Mt. Nikorastsikhe near the town of Dedoplistskaro. There are plenty of valleys on this territory (Shiraki, Ole, Taribana, Iori, Chachuna, Eldari Lowland, etc.), as well as hills and heights, separated by ravines and canyons. Some parts of the territory (about 12%) are occupied by badlands, saline lands, and marshes. In general, the territory of the DTR represents an upland elevation on overage of 400-600 m a.s.l. between the beds of the rivers Alazani and Iori. Despite the relative uniformity of relief, three climatic zones are identified in the territory of the DTR: Temperate dry subtropical (steppe) climate with moderately cold winters and hot

summers; Transient climate from dry subtropical to temperate humid subtropical with moderately

cold winters and hot summers; Temperate humid climates with hot summers and moderately cold winters.

Numbering of zones in brackets corresponds to the general classification of climates of Georgia [7]. The averaged climate features of these zones are presented in Table 4.1.3.1.

Table 4.1.3.1 Features of climatic zones Zone

# Zone description Mean

altitude of stations

(m)

Average for 30 years T annual mean

(0C) Q annual

(mm)

1 Temperate dry subtropical (steppe) climate with moderately cold winter and hot summer (8)

411 12.2 431

2 Transient climate from dry subtropical to temperate humid subtropical with moderately cold winter and hot summer (9)

702 10.6 568

3 Temperate humid climate with hot summer and moderately cold winter (10)

765 10.8 668

In spite of the absence of a great difference of elevations, 8 types of landscapes have been distinguished on the territory of the DTR. Most of the territory is occupied by landscapes typical of steppes and semi-deserts, and only its northern part and water-meadows are occupied by forests. At the same time, sparse arid–type forests are encountered in other parts of the DTR, among them in the Vashlovani Reserve.

 

 

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Forests occupy 3,360 ha of the region. They make up only 1.3% of the total area of the DTR. They are concentrated mainly in the northern part of the territory, in the Vashlovani Reserve and in water-meadows along the rivers Alazani and Iori. In the middle of the last century great attention was paid in this region to the planting of forest shelter belts, the total area of which exceeded 1,770 ha in 1988. The main purpose of these belts was to protect the arable lands from wind erosion. Unfortunately, most of them have been cut down as a result of the energy crisis in the 1990s and now the DTR faces an urgent need to restore these wind-breakers and to plant new groves for the protection of crops from violent high winds which are becoming more and more intense and frequent. To meet this challenge a relevant project proposal has been developed. The surface water resources of the DTR are represented by just two rivers – the Iori and Alazani and some small lakes, the majority if which are salty. According to 1943-1954 observational data, the mean annual discharge of the Iori River reached 10.7 m3/s in its upper part and 17.4 m3/s in its lower part, within the boundaries of the DTR. During the period 1986-2004, after the construction of two large reservoirs and a number of irrigation systems, the mean annual discharge of the river in its lowest part dropped to 2.6 m3/s, while the run-off in the river head remained virtually unchanged. As to the variability of the Alazani River flow, a comparison between the 1955-1970 and 1996-2005 averages indicates an increase of water discharge in the lower part of the river by about 7%, from 104 to 111 m3/s. This corresponds to a mean growth in runoff of 1-2% per decade. The underground water resources of the DTR are also scarce and their overall amount does not exceed 4.5 – 5.0 m3/s, that is, five times less than in the neighbouring region of the Alazani Valley. To protect rare species of flora and fauna, and provide for their spreading over the natural habitat, a number of preserved areas were created at different times in the DTR. Today they are represented by Vashlovani National Park (25,114 ha), which includes the Vashlovani Strict Natural Reserve (10,142 ha) and three Natural Monuments, and also by the Chachuna Managed Nature Reserve (5,200 ha). The total area occupied by these protected entities (30,552 ha) makes up 12% of the DTR territory. The immense biodiversity in Vashlovani Protected Areas are certainly worthy of conservation efforts. This is the only place in Georgia with such a variety of flora and fauna. Here the steppes turn to shrubbery, deserts change into light forests, and Alazani riparian forests give way to steep ravines. Each habitat hosts its unique inhabitants, and each location is full of life. According to a 2002 census, the population of the DTR is about 31,000, settled in one town and 14 villages. Compared to the 1989 census, some 6,000 people have left the region as a result of the worsening of socio-economic conditions caused by the disintegration of established systems of agricultural production, rising unemployment, and the disorganisation of irrigation systems. The dominant sector of the DTR economy is agriculture, in which 94% of population is engaged. In 2001-2005 the region produced on average 32% of the wheat, and 13% of the wine and meat purveyed in the whole Kakheti region.

 

 

119

Other branches of the economy are poorly developed in the region. Industry is represented by some small enterprises processing milk, sunflower and wine, as well as three wells recovering small amounts of oil and natural gas. The shortage of water has always been the main factor hampering the development of the DTR economy. For the time being, since the destruction of existing irrigation systems, only 2% of arable land is irrigated, which causes a high degree of agricultural vulnerability to drought. Accordingly, the poverty level in DTR is 18% higher than the mean value for the Kakheti region, which is significantly better provided with water. Climate change. The 1990-2005 period has been selected as the latest observational period, and the 1955-1970 (same sixteen-year length) period is to be compared with the latest one. All examined elements have been averaged in these two periods to assess their change over the past half-century. Summary results on the variation of air temperature in Dedoplistskaro during the above mentioned two selected periods are given in Table 4.1.3.2, according to which the mean annual air temperature has risen by 0.60 C in the past half-century. The maximum increase has been observed in July-October, accompanied by a slight decrease of temperature in winter.

Table 4.1.3.2. Changes in mean air temperature (0C). Dedoplistskaro, 1955-2005

Month

Period

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Annual

1955-1970 (I) 0.4 1.0 3.6 9.6 15.4 18.9 21.6 21.3 16.5 10.7 6.0 2.1

10.6

1990-2005 (II) 0.2 0.6 4.4 10.5 14.7 19.6 22.9 22.8 18.0 12.2 6.2 2.1

11.2 Difference (II-I) -0.2 -0.4 0.8 0.9 -0.7 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.6

Corresponding changes are observed in the values of absolute extremes. These data are summarised in Table 4.1.3.3, which shows that the current processes of climate change are mostly reflected in the increase of absolute maximum temperatures that subsequently clearly reveal the growth of drought frequency in the DTR.

Table 4.1.3.3. Average values of air temperature extremes. Dedoplistskaro, 1955-2005

Period Average value, 0C

Abs. maximum 0C Abs. minimum 0C 1955-1970 (I) 32.7 -11.5 1990-2005 (II) 34.8 -11.5 Difference (II-I) 2.1 0.0

The same analysis was applied to the data on atmospheric precipitation. Average values for selected periods are given in Table 4.1.3.4, according to which the annual sums of rainfall for the last half-century rose by 6%, with maximum increases of monthly precipitation in spring, and maximum decreases in summer.

 

 

120

Table 4.1.3.4. Changes in the mean sums of precipitation (mm).

Dedoplistskaro, 1955-2005

Month Period

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Annual

1955-1970 (I) 21 23 47 61 85 78 58 54 57 50 27 25 586 1990-2005 (II) 20 30 56 74 96 93 31 41 58 49 46 28 622 Difference (II-I) -1 7 9 13 11 15 -27 -13 1 -1 19 3 36

To check the impact of observed changes in air temperature and precipitation on air humidity, the mean monthly values of relative humidity have been analysed for the selected periods (Table 4.1.3.5).

Table 4.1.3.5. Changes in the mean values of air relative humidity (%). Dedoplistskaro, 1955-2005

Unlike the air humidity, the changes in temperature and rainfall have produced sensible impacts on the wetting regime of the DTR. For the assessment of this regime, the Selianinov Hydro-thermal coefficient (HTC) has been chosen [1], which is widely used in agrometeorology and which considers monthly sums of precipitation in the period when mean daily temperature exceeds 100C (the vegetation period), divided by the sum of mean daily air temperatures, for the same period. This coefficient is obtained empirically and has no dimension. The HTC varies significantly in different climatic zones. For example, in the Black Sea wet subtropical zone (Batumi), its monthly values vary in the range of 2 to 6, in temperately humid zones (Telavi) from 1 to 2.5 and in arid/semi-desert zones (Gardabani) from 0.5 to 1. The changes in the mean values of HTC in the DTR over the last half-century are presented in Table 4.1.3.6.

Table 4.1.3.6. Changes in the mean monthly values of HTC. Dedoplistskaro, 1955-2005

These data confirm that current climate change has caused a worsening of moistening conditions in the DTR in April and July, while improving moisture supply to vegetation in May and June, due to the relevant increase in precipitation. All in all, this process has resulted in the decrease of mean seasonal value of the HTC by 15% over the last 50 years. Calculations carried out for the vegetation period have revealed as well that due to the current warming, its duration has increased on an average by 12-13 days.

Month Period

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Annual

1955-1970 (I) 80 79 80 75 74 68 65 64 74 82 86 83 76 1990-2005 (II) 81 78 76 78 78 74 70 69 75 79 82 83 77 Difference (II) – (I) 1 -1 -4 3 4 6 5 5 1 -3 -4 0 1

Month Period

IV V VI VII

VIII

IX X Annual

1955-1970 (I) 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3

1990-2005 (II) 1.2 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1

Difference (II) – (I) -0.5 0.3 0.2 -

0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2

 

 

121

During those months when HTC < 1 or the climate is at the stage of aridisation, the watering conditions could be characterised also by the index called the Desertification Climatic Potential (DCP). This value is calculated [8], both for the air (2 m above the ground) and the soil (0.2 m under ground). The results of these calculations are given in Table 4.1.3.7.

Table 4.1.3.7. Changes in the mean values of DCP.

Dedoplistskaro, 1955-2005. Value,Month

Period

DCP for air, %

DCP for soil, %

VII VIII IX VII VIII IX 1955-1970 (I) 9 18 - 21 25 2 1990-2005 (II) 56 42 - 60 58 9

Ratio II/I 6.2 2.3 - 2.8 2.3 4.5

It can be seen from this table that between the selected two periods of time the value of DCP calculated by air temperature has increased six times in July, and twice in August. As to the values of DCP calculated by soil temperature, an increase is observed both in July-August, and in September. This indicates the intensification of a trend towards possible desertification in the DTR, which needs to carry out urgent measures to combat this progress. Similar to other climatic elements, the same analysis was undertaken for mean monthly wind speed (Table 4.1.3.8), showing a distant trend towards the weakening of wind.

Table 4.1.3.8. Changes in mean values of wind speed (m/s).

Dedoplistskaro, 1955-2005

Extreme weather events Drought. Climatological analysis of observational data obtained in Georgia during the past century demonstrates that the DTR is one of the regions most affected by drought in Georgia. The probability of recurrence of this event exceeds 20%. Comparing the different conditions characterising drought in this region, the following criteria were selected to identify this phenomenon: the daily sum of precipitation P 5 mm, maximum air temperature T max 280C, and mean daily relative humidity f 50%. Taking into consideration that for Eastern Georgia a duration of drought conditions less than 20 days is not in general fatal for a majority of the crops, aggregated data has been examined on the recurrence and duration of drought in the DTR. Observational series for 1952 – 2007 from the Dedoplistskaro weather station are presented in Table 4.1.3.9. The survey of 60 cases of drought shows that in the second half of this observation period (1980-2007), the average duration of drought (60 days) increased by 22%, compared with the mean value of the first 1952-1979 period (49 days). The frequency of drought also increased from an average of 0.7/yr to 0.9/yr. This trend has been especially marked in the last decade

Month Period

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Annual

1955-1970 (I) 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.9 1990-2005 (II) 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 Difference (II) – (I)

-0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6

 

 

122

(1998-2007), when 17 cases were observed during 10 years, resulting in the growth of frequency up to about 1.7/yr, and the rise in mean annual duration up to 72 days.

Table 4.1.3.9. Drought periods in Dedoplistskaro

Years Average annual duration of drought period, days

Mean frequency of drought period recurrence per year

1952-1965 54 0.5 1969-1975 37 0.7

1976-1985 54 0.9

1986-1995 52 0.8

1998-2007 72 1.0

High winds. Observation records from the meteorological station clearly demonstrate considerable increases in the frequency of high (v 30 m/s) winds, since the beginning of the 1980s (Fig. 4.1.3.1).

Figure 4.1.3.1. Annual recurrence of high winds (v 30m/s) at the observation terms in

Dedoplistskaro, 1963-2006 An analysis of 44 cases for the period of 1963-2006 indicates that until 1981, only 5 cases of high winds were registered, while in the following period, 34 cases were recorded, which corresponds to a rise of annual frequency from 0.28/yr to 1.44/yr, i.e., a five times increase in the recurrence of high winds between 1963-1981 and 1982-2006. Climate change forecast for 2100. With the general forecast for the changes of climate elements going towards 2100 in Eastern Georgia in mind, some specific calculations were performed for the DTR territory on the basis of the HADAM3P version of the PRECIS model, for the A2 world socio-economic development scenario. Calculations carried out applying another version of the PRECIS (ECHAM4 versions) has shown that for this region the HADAM3P version more precisely simulate the baseline period (1961-1990), thus giving a reason to select it for the specification of the above-mentioned general projection. According to the results obtained, the mean air temperature in Dedoplistskaro is likely to increase by 4.60C in 2100, reaching 15.40C, and the annual sums of precipitation are anticipated to remain at the present level (606 mm). At the same time, calculations have indicated the possibility of a slight decrease (about 3%) in relative humidity, in a background of virtually unchanged wind speed. The anticipated changes in air temperature and precipitation will be followed by the alteration of wetting regimes on the territory. Using the HTC as an indicator of the watering/wetting regime,

 

 

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it has been derived that the increase in 2100 of mean air temperature by 50C, and the decline of precipitation by about 90 mm through the vegetation period, will bring a reduction of HTC by 0.4, thus decreasing its present value in Dedoplistskaro from 1.1 down to 0.7. This result indicates that the predicted climate change in DTR threatens to transfer the already arid climate of the region into a considerably more arid one, with corresponding consequences in the structure of natural landscapes, and the management of agriculture. A predicted warming in the vegetation period will affect its duration as well, which could be increased from its present value of 196 days up to 235-240 days. The anticipated significant changes in climate elements discussed above are likely to affect the water resources, ecosystems, and different sectors of the economy. An assessment of this impact is given in the following part of this Chapter. Water resources. Methodology applied. To assess the future impact of predicted climate changes on the hydrological regime of two main rivers – the Alazani and Iori – crossing the territory of the DTR, a hydrological model WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) [9,10] was applied. The water resources of these rivers were intensively used in the past for the irrigation of crops and pastures. The model was validated against actually measured values of river run-off in 1951-1965, for the Alazani and in 1964-1990 for the Iori. Relief of rivers catchments, geological structure, types of soil and vegetation cover were used as input values into the WEAP model along with the PRECIS results. Alazani River. The results of observations in the past and of calculations for the future were averaged over a 30-year period. Resulting data are presented in Table 4.1.310.

Table 4.1.3.10. 30-year mean values of air temperature, precipitation and run-off for the upper part of the Alazani River

Time

period Mean annual

temperature, 0C Precipitation,

mm Total annual runoff,

million m3/yr 1951 – 1980 3.3 2,240 459.7 2071 - 2100 8.4 2,205 420.2

Changes 5.1 -1.5% -8.5%

As can be seen from this Table, the predicted values of precipitation vary slightly in the background of substantial rises of temperature, in increments exceeding 50C to the end of the current century. This correspondingly is reflected in the variation of river run-off which in general is expected to decrease by about 8%, compared with an average for the second half of the 20th century. Three different hypothetical scenarios of stream flow decrease were considered for the modelling of water deficit for irrigation systems, or for other purposes. Scenarios were constructed on assumptions that river run-off has decreased by 10, 30 and 50%, and at the same time the water demand has been accordingly increased by the same percentages. The results of calculations performed for all three hypothetical cases of variation in run-off and consumption are presented in Fig. 4.1.3.2.

 

 

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Figure 4.1.3.2. Water deficit in Qvemo Alazani Melioration System for the combined scenarios of water supply and take-off

This figure shows that from the three examined cases in only one case the demand was not met in August by river water flow. Taking into consideration that the conditions in this third case seem to be quite unrealistic, it should be derived that water resources of the Alazani River are sufficient to satisfy in the foreseeable future any realistic demand on water supply for irrigation purposes in the region. The results of the survey show that the total runoff of the Alazani River in its lower part about 13% exceeds the corresponding value in the middle of the river flow and its variation could be considered as representative of the variation in other parts of the river. At the same time, as a significant decrease of river discharge is not expected, even in the case of a considerable growth of demand a water deficit in the Alazani River is not anticipated by the end of the current century. River Iori. The same scenarios as above were considered for the projection of Iori River discharge variability, in connection with expected changes of air temperature and precipitation in the river basin (Table 4.1.3.11).

Table 4.1.3.11. Climate change impact on the River Iori in the upper part of the basin

Time period Mean annual temperature, 0C

Precipitation, mm Total annual runoff, million m3/yr

1964 – 1990 6.3 1,323 361.3 2071 – 2100 11.4 1,335 321.5

Change 5.1 1% -11%

The application to the Iori River of the same methodology used for the Alazani River to assess the water deficit, in case of different scenarios of supply and demand by the main irrigation system, has given quite different results (Fig. 4.1.3.3).

 

 

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Figure 4.1.3.3. Anticipated deficit of the Iori River run-off for different scenarios

(demand site: Zemo Samgori Melioration System) As can be seen in this figure, even in the case of the first, most moderate scenario, an increase in demand could not be met by the Iori River. The anticipated impact of predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation appears to be the 11% decrease in run-off that surpasses the 10% decline assumed in scenario 1. Hence, of the two rivers considered above only the Alazani River maintains significant capacity to satisfy increased demand considering the predicted changes in climatic parameters. The Iori River will not be able to meet its current demand at the end of this century even in the case of the first scenario. Agriculture. The stocktaking exercises carried out in the framework of the SNC, and consultations with local administration and farmers, have revealed that agriculture – the leading branch of the economy in DTR, is the most vulnerable to climate change. As was mentioned above, 94% of the population is engaged in this sector, the absolute majority of which are individual farmers. The area of per-capita arable land in the region equals about 1.90 ha, which exceeds by three times the average value for the Kakheti region. Data on the use of land stock in the DTR is given in Table 4.1.3.12.

Table 4.1.3.12. Data on the use of agricultural lands in the DTR No. Purpose Area, ha

1 Agricultural arable lands 57,500 Among them: Ploughed fields

35,000

Rangelands and hayfields 21,150

Perennials 1,350 2 Winter pastures 131,400

Total agricultural arable lands

188,900

Total of DTR 253,200

It emerges from these tables that agricultural lands occupy about 75% of the territory of DTR, of which 52% belong to winter pastures. The remaining part of the territory is occupied by protected areas, abandoned lands, etc. Land degradation and desertification. Land degradation is one of the most acute problems in the region. The depth of humus in agricultural lands, having been highly productive in the past,

 

 

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is being significantly decreased as a result of growing wind erosion. On average, the humus content in Shiraki soils has decreased from 7.5% in 1983 to 3.2% in 2006. As a result, land fertility has almost halved. Local specialists are confident that the ongoing decline in the productivity of main crops in the region is caused, among other things, by the degradation of soil, caused by wind erosion and lack of watering. The degraded soils in DTR include saline lands, the total area of which in the region equals 4,975 ha. In the second half of the last century, these lands were periodically, every 6-7 years, cultivated using gypsum that made it possible to use them as arable land. However, for the last 10-15 years, this kind of chemical irrigation has not taken place, so that these lands have become covered by wild grass. At present, for the most part, these lands are abandoned. Most actively, land degradation in the DTR is going on in the winter pastures which occupy 52% of the region’s total area. Until the 1990s, these territories were periodically fertilized and chemically irrigated by gypsum, in salted areas. A significant part of sheep flocks were traditionally driven to winter pastures at the Caspian sea shore, in neighbouring Dagestan. In the beginning of the 1990s, this drive stopped and almost all remaining live-stock were directed to the DTR winter pastures. At present, about 50,000 sheep spend the winter in these territories. As a result, the load on pastures exceeds by 2-3 times the normal value believed to be 3-4 sheep per ha. This overgrazing causes the extermination of grass cover. The stripped parts of land are impacted by solar radiation, strong winds and rainfall, and are thus losing the soil cover which increases the process of desertification. Especially vulnerable to this process are the southern slopes of hills and heights. About 80% of DTR pastures are affected by overgrazing and to some degree subject to degradation. The process of agricultural land degradation and the decline in their productivity could be schematically summarised in the following form (Fig. 4.1.3.4).

Figure 4.1.3.4. Factors and processes promoting land degradation and desertification in the DTR

Natural Factors  Anthropogenic Factors 

Increase in high 

temperatures 

Decrease in 

precipitation 

Worsening of wetting 

regime 

Increase in frequency 

of high winds 

Overgrazing

Cutting down of wind 

belts 

Ceasing of saline 

lands chemical 

melioration

Land erosion and degradation

Incineration of 

pastures and stubble 

Disintegration of 

irrigation systems 

Decrease in soil fertility Desertification

 

 

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The warming of the climate could have some positive effects in the agricultural sector of the DTR. Calculations suggest that the increase of air temperature in the warm period of the year (April-October) has already caused the prolongation of the vegetation period on average by about 13 days. Based on the predicted values of anticipated further growth of temperature, to the end of the current century, the duration of the vegetation period could increase additionally by 43 days. In the case of the ability to provide the vegetation with water, this could significantly improve conditions for getting better harvests of heat-loving plants, and to obtain two harvests of some forage crops. However, the main climate-related obstacles hampering the development of the agricultural sector in DTR are strong winds and the lack of rainfall. Along with anthropogenic loading, these factors are causing soil erosion, abandonment of land by farmers, and as a final result, the beginning of desertification. To mitigate these processes, since the 1930s, wind-breakers were systematically planted in DTR. In the 1980s they occupied 906 ha (60 metre wind state-owned breakers) and 865 ha (10 metre wind “Kolmeurneoba”-owned belts) of land. Wind-breakers played a significant role in moderating the microclimate of fields and vineyards, and protecting soil from wind erosion. Unfortunately, during the 1990s, these belts almost completely were cut down, as a result of which the productivity of the land has decreased. Water deficit in the agriculture sector. Another natural factor impeding the development of agricultural production in DTR is the lack of water resources. It can be said that owing to the current minimal anthropogenic interference (arable land is not irrigated, wind-breakers have been removed, part of the land is abandoned, etc.) the situation in the region best reflects the impact of present climate conditions on crops and their yield. To assess the influence of climate change on some crops and pastures, a deficit of water was estimated, which will cause a decrease of crop harvest and productivity of the pastures. The computer model CropWat (FAO), developed for just such investigations, was applied [11]. The shortage of water in DTR was assessed for winter wheat, sunflower and pastures in the past period of 1960-2005 (reference period) and in 2021-2100 (projected period). The climate change scenario for the future period was taken according to forecast obtained under the regional climate model PRECIS. To achieve better resolution in time, both reference and projected periods were divided into 15-year sub-periods. Values of climate elements fitting the model (air temperature and humidity, wind) were taken according to an observational series of local weather stations, while other parameters concerning specific properties of crops were taken according to FAO recommendations. Calculations performed for the reference period indicate that in 1960-2005, the annual deficit of water for winter wheat, sunflower and pastures equals 25, 33 and 48% respectively. The analysis of future water demand proves that to the end of this century, on average, wheat is lacking almost half of the water needed, and sunflower even more. This is reflected in the fact that the harvest of this crop is usually very low and farmers prefer not to sow it. Trends of water deficit in the projected period for examined crops and pastures are shown in Table 4.1.3.13.

 

 

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Table 4.1.3.13. Water deficit in agriculture

Crop Water deficit, mm

1960-1975 1976-1990 1990-2005 2021-2035 2036-2050 2071-2085 2086-2100

Winter wheat 163 147 133 185 181 215 236

Sunflower 229 243 249 230 239 247 293 Pastures 296 292 288 320 326 335 364

The applied model does not link water deficit with crop productivity. The analysis shows that there is no direct correlation between these two elements and in some years outstandingly low wheat productivity corresponds to a relatively small value of water deficit. An additional survey indicates that such cases are linked to the high winds that are demonstrated by data presented in Table 4.1.3.14.

Table 4.1.3.14. Crop yield of wheat in DTR

Year Water deficit

(mm) Crop productivity

(tonne/ha)

Number of months through the vegetation period with the wind speed

exceeding 25 m/s

2000 313.6 0 2 (max 40 m/s) 2001 90 4.00 1 (max 28 m/s) 2002 45 1.30 3 (max 40 m/s) 2003 119.6 2.00 2 (max 34 m/s) 2004 137.6 1.80 4 (max 34 m/s) 2005 160.1 2.20 0

As was mentioned earlier, in the absence of wind-breakers, the impact of strong winds on the productivity of crops is becoming gradually evident. This is more pronounced at an early stage of harvest formation, in winter and spring. Under the anticipated changes, and a growing water deficit, several adaptation measures are to be urgently implemented in the DTR, some of which are considered in the worked out project proposals. Protected areas and natural landscapes. As was mentioned above, a major part of the DTR territory is used as agricultural land. Hence, the natural landscape is preserved mainly on protected territories. Anticipated climate change in this region could turn a significant part of the DTR territory into subtropical arid steppes, covered by vegetation typical to semi-deserts and desert, with subsequent impoverishment of biodiversity. As to the anthropogenic causes of changes in natural landscapes, they could be classified in the following way: (1) overgrazing; (2) cutting down of forests; (3) incineration of pastures and stubble; (4) ploughing of pastures and riparian forests; (5) hasty use of water resources. Overgrazing already has affected about 80% of the DTR pastures, threatening a number of areas with the beginning of desertification. The unfounded use of water resources also affects in some way the protected territories and natural landscapes. For instance, the construction of the Dali Reservoir has added tangible beauty to the landscapes of the Chachuna Natural Reserve but it has caused significant damage to

 

 

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riparian forests in the lower flow of the Iori River by restricting these territories from spring floods. That process is being aggravated by intensive and irrational use of water resources from the Iori River, and the flood discharge from its lower part does not now exceed 6-8 m3/s. The best way to restore natural landscapes in the DTR seems to be to rehabilitate wind belts, which along with the protection of soil from erosion are promoting the preservation of local fauna. At the same time, in appropriate places, natural landscapes should be enriched by plantation groves that could promote both preservation of biodiversity and provision of the local population with firewood, thus protecting wind-breakers from illegal cutting. The role of protected areas in monitoring natural climatic change impacts on endemic species of flora and fauna is very important. As there is virtually no anthropogenic impact on natural landscapes in the protected areas, the changes in vegetation cover and fauna in these areas could serve as an additional indicator of climate change. For instance, in the last decade, such new species as porcupine and land rabbit are becoming familiar to the region, apparently as a result of migration from the hot and arid areas of Pakistan and Iran. At the same time in many places in DTR populations of pheasant are disappearing that in some way could indicate the beginning of a desertification process in the region. It should also be mentioned that in the natural landscapes of the DTR’s protected territories, a number of centuries–old specimens of pistachio trees, Juniper, Black Poplar trees, and other rare plants have been preserved. In the form of their annual rings, they contain valuable information on the variability of climate in the region over past centuries. Despite the scarcity of forest cover, this region possesses sufficient potential for the development of tourism in the region, owing to its large area of protected territories. Climate change in the DTR could also affect in some ways the economy. The same applies to agriculture for the vegetation season, and the warming of the climate could bring an extension of the tourist season. However, this warming accompanied by a possible decrease in precipitation, could result in further aridisation of the climate, promoting desertification. Properly arranged adaptation measures should beneficially affect existing flora and fauna, and increase the attraction of tourists to the protected territories. 4.1.4. Kvemo Svaneti General overview. Kvemo Svaneti (the Lentekhi region) represents one of the priority regions selected in the framework of SNC preparations, and has been identified as a vulnerable area to various and disastrous weather events, significantly enhanced by global warming. As a result of the increased frequency and intensity of these phenomena (floods, landslides, mud torrents, and snow avalanches), land erosion has intensified greatly, damaging agriculture, forests, roads and other communications, buildings, and other constructions, and has caused significant decreases in the standard of life and the acceleration of migration processes. Considering these facts, in co-operation with local authorities and representatives of agriculture and forestry management expertise, an adaptation for climate change strategies has been worked out for the Lentekhi region, on the basis of which this concrete project proposal has been prepared.

 

 

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Kvemo Svaneti is located in the central part of West Georgia’s northern sector. It comprises the gorges of the rivers Tskhenistskali and Kheledula and is stretched along 85 km from the west to the east. The total area of the territory equals 1,344 km2. The terrain of Kvemo Svaneti includes many ranges, gorges, and hollows. From the north the terrain is limited by the Svaneti Range, which divides the watersheds of the rivers Tskhenistskali and Enguri. In the south, the terrain borders the Egrisi and Lechkhumi ranges, between which the Tskhenistskali River flows. In the Svaneti Range, and over the greater part of the Caucasus Range bordering the Lentekhi region, about 20 small and medium size glaciers are situated, the lower limit equaling about 2,800-2,900 m. The total area covered by glaciers in the region exceeds 10 km2. The slopes of the three main ridges mentioned above are rugged, with deep and narrow gorges predominantly covered by forests. On the slopes of these high mountains, glacial circuses and moraines are quite frequent. Extreme weather events activated by the climatic changes of the past century have produced a definite impact on the relief of the region, reflected in the intensification of erosion processes on the mountain slopes, the deformation of river banks, and the retreat of glaciers, though these processes so far have not produced any significant impact on the main forms of the mountain relief. The complex relief of Kvemo Svaneti determines the diversity of its climate and due to its great differences in elevations, the climate here is characterised by a pronounced vertical zoning. Five climatic zones have been identified in the region, a short description of which is given in Table 4.1.4.1. In order to identify their climatic features, only two meteorological stations (Lentekhi and Koruldashi) are functioning in the region. To characterise other climatic zones, data from neighbouring meteorological stations have been used. Similar to the climate zones situation of Kvemo Svaneti, the region comprises a lot of landscapes as well. At present, six types of landscapes [12] have been identified in the region, the most dominant being mountain landscapes, with beech and dark coniferous forests and evergreen bushes that are characteristic of 4-5 Georgian climatic zones.

Table 4.1.4.1. Climate zones of Kvemo Svaneti and their average features

Zone #

Zone features Range of elevations (m a.s.l.)

Averaged elevation of characteristic weather stations

(m a.s.l.)

Mean annual values T m. (0C)

Precipitation (mm)

1 Humid climate with temperately cold winter and long summer (3)

500-800 627 10.6 1,185

2 Humid climate with cold winter and long summer (4)

800-1,200 864 9.6 1,289

3 Humid climate with cold winter and short summer (5)

1,200-1,800 1519 5.6 1,331

4 High mountain humid climate without real summer (6)

1,800-2,800 2127 2.2 1,346

5 High mountain humid climate with permanent snow and glaciers (7)

> 2,800 3254 -4.2 1,186

Note: Numbering of zones in brackets is given according to M.Kordzakhia [7].

 

 

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Changes in climate revealed over the past century in the territory of Kvemo Svaneti are still in the range of natural variability, and hence they have not affected the structure of the landscapes yet. Among the resources of natural wealth in Kvemo Svaneti, along with water resources are the forests, which occupy 83,000 ha of land. 79,000 ha of this area are covered by woods, making up about 60% of the region’s territory. The cutting down of forests, largely practiced over the last two decades, has caused an increase in the area and frequency of landslides, and greatly damaged the forests. For example, in 1994, 80 ha of forests were destroyed by landslides, and in 1996 55 ha of beech forest had been completely dried out as a result of landslides. In an effort to mitigate the landslide processes in the region, this attached project proposal has been worked out in the framework of the current project. Kvemo Svaneti is one of the richest regions in Georgia for water resources. More than 20 small and medium sized tributaries join the rivers Tskhenistskali and Kheledula, partially being fed by the remaining glaciers. Similar to other regions of the world, current global warming has affected the Caucasus glaciers, causing their evident degradation. This process is reflected in the glaciers of Kvemo Svaneti, causing changes in the run-off of the rivers. As to the recourses of underground water, their average value in Kvemo Svaneti reaches 86 m3/c, which exceeds by 3.5 times the resources of the artesian basin in the neighboring Racha-Lechkhumi region. The underground water resources play a significant role in the formation of river run-off. According to the results of a special investigation, the share of underground water discharge in the river run-off in this region varies in the range of 20-40%, making 30% on average. The population of the Lentekhi region underwent significant change over the past two decades. Until 1987, 14,580 residents (3,200 families) lived here, but as a result of catastrophic snowfalls in 1986-87, and the following devastating floods in the late 1980s, almost 1,000 families were deported. By the end of the 1990s, the population of the region had decreased to 9,800. According to a 2003 census, the population here further decreased to 8,760. The leading sector of the region’s economy is agriculture (animal husbandry), in which a large part of the population is engaged. According to 2006 data, arable land here occupies 1,500 ha, and pastures and hayfields 22,000 ha. The main crops are potato, maize and haricot. The natural conditions of the region are very favourable for the development of animal growing, which in recent years has been progressing significantly. Along with stock-raising, favourable conditions here exist for the development of bee-keeping. Mineral resources are represented by arsenic and mineral waters. In other economic sectors, tourism and recreational facilities are promising. Climate change. For an assessment of changes in climate elements during the last 15-20 years, only data from the Lentekhi station was available. Similar to the Dedoplistskaro region, to determine the change in climate element in Kvemo Svaneti, two 16-year “Standard” periods were examined: 1955-1970 and 1990-2005. Data on the variation of the air temperature between these two “standard” periods in Lentekhi, are presented in Table 4.1.4.2, revealing an increase in mean annual temperature by 0.40C, in the last half-century.

 

 

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Table 4.1.4.2. Variation of air temperature (0C) in Lentekhi, 1955-2005

Month

Year I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Annual

1955-1970 (I) -1.1 -0.2 3.8 9.6 14.6 17.6 20.1 19.9 15.6 9.9 5.3 0.2 9.6 1990 – 2005 (II) -1.7 -0.1 4.2 10.2 14.9 18.2 21.5 21.2 16.3 10.8 4.6 -0.2 10.0 Difference (II – I)

-0.6 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.9 -0.7 -0.4 0.4

Relevant changes have been observed in the extremes of air temperature (Table 4.1.4.3).

Table 4.1.4.3. Mean values of air temperature extremes (0C) in Lentekhi, 1955-2005.

Period Mean values Absolute max Absolute. min

1955 – 1970 (I) 34.7 -14.5 1990 – 2005 (II) 35.2 -13.8 Difference (II – I) 0.5 0.7

It can be derived from this table that in the past 50 years climate change has almost equally affected the rise in both temperature extremes. As with air temperatures, the averaged values of precipitation in the mentioned standard period in Lentekhi are given in Table 4.1.4.4.

Table 4.1.4.4 Variation of sums of precipitation (mm) in Lentekhi, 1955-2000

Month

Years I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Annual

1955-1970 (I) 115 108 121 95 86 87 94 96 95 98 105 153 1,254 1990 – 2005 (II) 89 93 110 140 116 110 113 115 87 136 110 139 1,360 Difference (II – I) (%)

-26 -15 -11 45 30 23 19 19 -8 38 5 -14 106 (8)

According to this table, in the past half-century, precipitation in Lentekhi has increased by 106 mm on average, corresponding to a rate of increase of 30 mm/decade, in relative increments of 10%. Data on the variation of air relative humidity (RH) are presented in Table 4.1.4.5 below.

Table 4.1.4.5 Averaged values of air relative humidity (%) in

Lentekhi, 1955-2000 Month

Years

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Annual

1955-1970 (I) 85 82 77 71 70 72 74 74 78 81 81 86 78 1990 – 2005 (II) 92 89 84 78 76 78 76 79 83 87 91 93 84 Difference (II–I) (%)

7 7 7 7 6 6 2 5 5 6 10 7 6

(8)

This table demonstrates significant changes in the wetting regime of Kvemo Svaneti, resulting in the growth of RH by about 5-7%, in almost all months except July and November. To characterise the changes in the wetting regime of the territory, a variation of the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) was assessed for the same period in Lentekhi (Table 4.1.4.6). The data in this

 

 

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table clearly demonstrate a significant rise in the value of HTC during the past half-century, making 28% on average for the whole vegetation period. This observed growth in air temperature also caused an increase in the duration of the vegetation period by 3 days in the spring, and by 5 days in autumn.

Table 4.1.4.6 The variation of hydrothermal coefficient in Lentekhi, 1955-2005 Month

Period

IV V VI VII VIII IX X Seasonal Average

1955-1970 (I) 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.9 2.1

1990 – 2005 (II) 4.1 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 5.1 2.7 Difference (II – I) 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2 0.6

This observed prolongation of the vegetation period should positively affect stock-raising – the leading sector of agriculture in the region by an increase in the productivity of pastures and hayfields. The increase in the wetting regime could promote the further spread of pests and diseases in the forests in the region. This tendency has been already revealed for the past 10-15 years. However, the anticipated end-century increase of air temperature in the region by 3-40C, and the 5% decrease in precipitation, could provoke a breach of the natural equilibrium in the forests, under the impact of a reverse process – i.e., an increase in the dryness of the climate. The Lentekhi meteorological station is situated at the bottom of a narrow gorge and is surrounded by forests, thus causing negligible values of wind. According to measurements conducted since the 1970s, the average wind speed here varies in the range of 1.2-1.5 m/s. Extreme weather events. For the last 15-20 years, the frequency of disastrous events caused by heavy precipitation (daily sums exceeding 30 mm) has obviously increased, and this is reflected in the growth of losses caused by floods and landslides, as well as in the growing trend of population migration from the region. One of the main reasons which could explain this process is the rise in intensity of the precipitation. Heavy Precipitation. The analyses of 2000-2005 data on precipitation at the Lentekhi station show that the share of heavy showers in monthly sums of precipitations, varies in the range of 20-100%, making an average of 60%. It has also been revealed that the sum of precipitation in the months with heavy showers (exceeding the year average values) increased by about 12% in the second “standard” period, relative to the first one, though the number of months with heavy showers remained virtually unchanged, about 5 months per annum. The increase of precipitation in the warm period of the year (April-September) reached 19%, while in the cold period, only 10%. This result could partly be explained by the increase of losses caused by floods and mud streams (Table 4.1.4.7).

Table 4.1.4.7 Average values of monthly precipitation (mm) in months

with abundant rainfall/snowfall. Month

Period

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Annual

1955 – 1970 (I) 192 166 166 135 127 129 142 154 142 146 167 233 1,899 1990 – 2005 (II) 177 131 193 194 154 167 165 183 120 215 180 241 2,120 Difference (II-I) -15 -35 27 59 27 38 23 29 -22 69 13 8 221 Increment (%) -7.8 -21.1 16.3 43.7 21.3 29.4 16.2 18.8 -15.5 47.3 7.8 3.4 11.6

 

 

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Floods. One of the most dangerous events caused by heavy precipitation in Kvemo Svaneti is flooding which greatly damages the local population. Floods are originated by the melting of snow or by heavy showers, or by the combined action of both phenomena. The available data on the quantitative observations of the Tskhenistskali River floods (hydrological post Rtskhmeluri) includes the period of 1937-1989, from which the unbroken series comprise 1967- 1989. These data are presented in Table 4.1.4.8.

Table 4.1.4.8. Mean values of main features of floods on the Tskenistskali River.

Rtskhmeluri, 1967-1989 Features

Period

Number of cases

Duration (day)

Maximum discharge

(m3/s)

Ratio to multi-year mean discharge

Frequency of occurrence (per year)

1967 – 1979 4 7.5 444 6.6 0.3 1980 - 1989 7 5.6 485 7.2 0.7 Difference (%) -25 +9 +9 230

The presented data averages for two approximately equal periods (13 and 10 years) demonstrate that within the limits of available statistics, in the second period, the recurrence of floods has doubled or more, and the maximum discharge has increased by 9%. At the same time the duration of floods has decreased by 25%, which could explain the growth in intensity and severity of floods. Landslides. Along with the floods, another type of destructive event caused by heavy precipitation in Kvemo Svaneti is landslides, also very painfully affecting the local population. Until 1980 the 82 landslide plots were registered in the Lentekhi region, in which landslides have occurred systematically. Since then, in the last 20 years, the number of landslide affected areas has increased by 43%, and reached 117. The number of landslides had drastically grown after the catastrophically abundant snowfall in the winter of 1986-1987, which is reflected in Table 4.1.4.9.

Table 4.1.4.9. Dynamics of landslide affected areas in the Lentekhi region, 1980-1998.

Observation period Number of landslide affected areas

Existing Activated Newly activated Until 1980 82 1980-86 87 44 5 1987-88 110 51 23 1989-91 112 25 2 1992-95 113 19 1 1996 113 13 - 1997 116 20 3 1998 117 10 1 Total 117 182 35

The disastrous events discussed above are affecting more or less all settlements in Kvemo Svaneti. However, according to data gathered from the local authorities, the main risk-factors in the region are land erosion and landslides. One of the ways to combat them is the planting of selected kinds of trees, and other vegetation, in the dangerous and vulnerable plots. In particular, this concerns hazelnuts, which have an exceptionally sturdy root system. Considering this fact, a project proposal has been developed and is presented in chapter 4.2.3.

 

 

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Mudstreams. In the mountainous conditions of Kvemo Svaneti, heavy showers often bring about mudstreams, which destroy roads and communications, causing intensive erosion of river banks and slopes of gorges and ravines, in the territory of the Lentekhi region. Fifty mudstream-affected ravines were registered in the period 1980-1998, during which the passing of 145 torrents were registered. On average, a passing of 5-10 mudstreams takes place annually in the region. However, after the anomalous snowfalls of 1986-1987, in the winter of 1988, over 45 cases of mudstreams had been registered. In a long period of time (1921-2005), obvious increases in the frequency of this event have been evident, since 1965 (Figure 4.1.4.1). In this figure, each 5-year period contains a cycle of years featured by extreme mudstream activity.

Figure 4.1.4.1. Extreme mudstream activity in the basin of the R. Tskenistskali, 1921-2005

Apart from the above-discussed disastrous events, in winters with abundant snowfall, snow avalanches pose great danger to the population of the region, especially in its upper zone. For example, during the snowy 1987-1988 winters, about 10 villages of Kvemo Svaneti appeared to be endangered by avalanches. Hundreds of families had to be evacuated and many parts of the motorway were blocked up. Moreover, snow avalanches have often damaged the forest cover. Drought. The Lentekhi region is sufficiently rich in precipitation. Average values of monthly sums here vary in the range of 90-140 mm, and hence drought in the region is not such a devastating phenomenon as it is in the Dedoplistskaro region or in Kvemo Kartli. According to 1965-2006 records, the annual number of days with drought in Lentekhi amounted to 42 on average, which is significantly less compared to similar values in Dedoplistskaro (about 70). The severity of drought in Kvemo Svaneti has been greatly alleviated by the abundance of small rivers and springs, making it possible to irrigate the arable land, in contrast to the DTR, where such actions are a costly endeavour. However, similar to the DTR, current changes in climate have affected the duration of the drought period in Kvemo Svaneti. The comparison between the initial (1956-1972) and latest (1991-2006) periods shows that between these two sub-periods, the average number of days with drought has increased from 34 to 47, corresponding to a rise of 38%. The frequency of such events has also grown by 17% (Table 4.1.4.10).

1

2

3

4

5 

1920  1940 1960 1980 200030  50 70 90 10

Number of years withextreme events 

Year

 

 

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Table 4.1.4.10. Drought periods in Lentekhi, 1956-2006

Period Average duration of period with drought

Recurrence (year)

1956 – 1972 (I) 34 0.53 1991 – 2006 (II) 47 0.62 Difference (II –I) %

12 (38)

0.09 (17)

This table indicates that in spite of the abundance of surface water, the increase in the duration and frequency of drought could pose definite constraints to some branches of agriculture in the lower and medium zones of the region. The hazards of this are increasingly taking into account the anticipated end-of-century significant growth in temperature and decrease in precipitation, bringing about a corresponding decline in the wetting/watering regime. Climate change forecast for 2100. Against a background of general forecasts for the changes of climate elements up to 2100 in West Georgia, similar to the Dedoplistskaro region, specific calculations were carried out for the Kvemo Svaneti region, using the PRECIS regional climate model. Simulations indicate that to the end of current century, increments of annual temperature in the region could reach 3.50C, accompanied by a decrease of precipitation by 60 mm, making up about 5% of the baseline period value. According to the data of neighbouring meteorological stations which characterise the Lentekhi climate zone, the mean annual temperature in this zone equals 10.40C, thus giving a projected value for 2100 for this zone up to 13.90C. Given this background of changes in temperature and precipitation, the calculations predict a decrease in the mean annual air relative humidity (RH) by 6%, assuming virtually unchanged wind velocity. These projected changes in climate elements will bring about a corresponding alteration in the wetting regime of the territory. If the value of HTC between the first and second “standard” periods has already increased from 2.1 to 2.7, related to the anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation, it would decrease down to 1.9 for 2100, which would transform the lower part of the region from a temperate-humid category into a category of temperate wetting. At the same time it would bring about the prolongation of the vegetation period from the present 185 days, up to 210-215 days. The predicted changes in climate elements to the end of current century are considered to produce an impact on water resources, ecosystems, and the economy of the region. The anticipated scale and results of this impact are discussed below. Water resources. The surface water resources of Kvemo Svaneti are represented by the upper reaches of the Tskhenistskali River and its tributaries. For the assessment of climate change impacts on the run-off of the Tskenistskali River the hydrological model WEAP was applied, using scenarios out to 2100 regarding changes in air temperature and precipitation. In the first stage, validation was performed for the eastern part of the watershed from the head of the river down to the hydrological post in Luji. The mean monthly values of air temperature and precipitation for this period came from the Koruldashi meteorological station, located in this part of the river basin, as well as from hydrological records for the same period. These data were used

 

 

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to calibrate and validate the model, along with relevant information on the relief, geological structure, types of soil, and vegetation cover of the region. To assess the anticipated change of input climate parameters the PRECIS regional climate model was used. Unfortunately, validation of WEAP model for this region showed that none of the climate models applied in PRECIS simulates the past (1962-1986) increase in river run-off at the acceptable level. Presumably, this may be explained by the presence of glaciers in the examined territory, which are influencing the local climate, and which were not relevantly accounted in the PRECIS and are not considered in WEAP at all. To tackle this discrepancy, the climate change scenario forecasted for West Georgia (not localized, see section 4.1.1) has been used. Based on this scenario the model showed that to the end of the current century a 9% decrease in run-off at the Luji post can be expected (Table 4.1.4.11).

Table 4.1.4.11: Average annual values of Tskhenistskali River run-off in a 28-year period (post Luji)

Period Total run-off (million m3/yr)

1958 – 1986 703.0 2072 - 2100 638.7 Difference (%) (-9%)

In the seasonal distribution of run-off, a significant decrease (by 41%) was derived for summer, with a moderate increase (by 11%) in spring, allowing the anticipation of some decline in the intensity of summer floods. This forecast was made without the consideration of feeding from glaciers, the inclusion of which may bring some future correction of results obtained. For the application of this result to the whole territory of the upper part of the Tskhenistskali River basin, a correlation between the monthly values of discharge of the hydrological posts of Luji and Rtskhmeluri were analysed for the same period of 1958-1986. The correlation between these two series appears to be sufficiently close, along with their similarities of inter-annual variations. This result makes it possible to assume that the trend of run-off observed in the initial part of the river, from its head to the post Luji, is reflected along its whole upper reaches, down to post Rtskhmeluri, and to the end of the current century (2070-2100), the runoff at this part of the river could decrease by 9%, with a pronounced decline in the summer season. Agriculture. The location, relief and climate of the Lentekhi region are complicating the development of agriculture. The vertical zoning of climate, steep slopes and erosion processes hamper land cultivation in the region. The increase in the frequency of disastrous phenomena related to current climate change: heavy precipitation, floods and landslides, etc. have negatively affected the already low efficiency agricultural development of the region. The area of arable land in the period 1990-2007, decreased from 2,200 ha to 1,500 ha, and that of the perennials, from 380 to 130 ha. The area of hayfields declined by 1,300 ha, and of pastures by 6,000 ha, and the number of cattle decreased from 15,000 to 9,000 ha, and that of swine from 12,000 to 5,000. The intensification of disastrous events and the making of an agriculture sector have engendered the above mentioned depopulation of the region. Statistical data on the productivity of loading crops during 1958-1970 and 1955-2007 were compared in order to assess the impact of climate change on the agriculture of Kvemo Svaneti, in

 

 

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the second part of the last centuary. The average values of crop yield for these periods are given in Table 4.1.4.12.

Table 4.1.4.12. Productivity of major crops in the Lentekhi region, 1958-2007

Crop

Period

Maize Potato Total yield

(tons) Productivity

(ton/ha) Total yield

(tons) Productivity

(ton/ha) 1958 – 1970 (I) 1187 1.07 581 4.09 1995 – 2007 (II) 914 1.54 2158 9.40 Difference (II-I) %

-273 0.47 1577 5.31 -230 +44 +271 +129

It can be derived from this table that between the two examined periods of time, the productivity of both crops increased, which could be explained by the better care of privatised land in the second period. As to cattle breeding, the number of cattle between these periods declined by 26%, from 11,585 to 8,553. At the same time, milk production experienced a significant rise in the yield of milk, after privatising the cattle and the much better care for them in private farms.

To the end of the current century, as a result of climate change, fundamental alterations are expected in the agriculture sector of the Lentekhi region, featured by wide possibilities in the diversification and intensification of production. In particular, the growing potential in citrus, fruit, and vegetable production, will promote development in the regions of tourism and in the recreational sector, being in the forefront of new priority directions for our country. A widening of the forage production area in the high-mountain zones will significantly enhance the development of animal husbandry, promoting the intensification of the mentioned sectors as well.

The projected scheme for this transformation, to the end of the current century, has here been drawn and presented below in Table 4.1.4.13. For the baseline year in this scheme, 1965 was chosen, in which time a comprehensive agroclimatic survey had been undertaken, relevant to conditions, free of significant anthropogenic loading.

Table 4.1.4.13. Anticipated transformation [to 2100] of agroclimatic resources in the

Lentekhi region 1965 2100

Vertical zone (m)

Temperature, 0C Duration of vegetation

period (day)

Precipitation in warm period (mm)

HTC

Agriculture specialisation

Temperature, 0C Precipitation in warm period (mm)

HTC

Agriculture specialisation

Mean annu

al

Sums of active temperatures

Mean annual

Sums of active temperatures

Piedmont zone, 500-800

11.5-9.5

3,600-3,000

200-180 590-720 1.9-2.3

Growing of vine and fruit, production of maize, soy-bean: vegetables, melons and gourds

15.0-13.0

4,500-4,000

520-650 1.3-1.5 Tillage all year round, citrus growing, 2-3 yields annually of maize and vegetables

Low mountain zone, 800-1200

9.5-7.5

3000-2400

180-150 590-700 2.3-2.6

Production of champagne wine materials, fruit juices, vegetables, maize soy-beam, etc.

13.0-11.0

4000-3600

520-630 1.5-1.65

Tillage through most of the year, high quality wine-making, intensive growing of fruit, maize and vegetables

 

 

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Mid-mountain zone 1200-1800

7.5-5.0

2400-1800

150-120 570-700 2.6-3.9

Animal husbandry, production of forage, maize for silage, barley and potato

11.0-9.5

3600-3200

500-630 1.65-1.75

Growing of vine, fruits, vegetables, production of forage and maize, early potato

High mountain zone 1800-2400

5.0-0.0

1800-500

120-80 700-800 3.8-7.2

Animal husbandry, production of forage, barley, potato vegetables and protected ground (greenhouse tracks)

9.5-6.5 3200-2200

630-730 1.65-3.4

Growing of vine (champagne), fruits (stone-fruits, hazelnut, nut) vegetables, maize forage, potato

Subnival zone, 2400-2850

0.0-2.5

0 0 600-500 >7.2 High mountain hey fields and pastures

6.5-1.5 2200-1500

530-430 > 3.5 Production of forage, stone-fruits, vegetables (in greenhouse tracks), early potato

Forests. Among the main natural riches in Kvemo Svaneti, along with water resources are forests. Five forestry farms here occupy about 85,000 ha, of which 77,000 ha are covered by forests, taking up about 60% of the region’s territory. The kind of structures of the forests varies according to vertical zoning. Changes registered in the forests of Lentekhi region, during the past decades, are presented in Table 4.1.4.14.

Table 4.1.4.14. Changes registered in the forests of the Lentekhi region, 1987-2005

# Years

Features

1987 1997 2005

1 Area of forestry farms (ha) 80,150 82,989 59,002 Among them covered by forest (ha) 78,962 78,044 55,617

2 Area of protected territories (ha) 23,140 Among them covered by forests (ha) 21,512

3 Total area, ha 82,142 Among them covered by forest 77,129

4 Total stock of timber (million m3) 13,544 15,495 15,590 5 Area covered by dominant kinds (ha)

Beech 35,676 36,347 32,722 Fir-tree 9,252 9,051 8,595 Hornbeam 3,173 3,473 4,654 Birch 8,788 8,730 9,517 Spruce 4,609 4,643 4,938 Oak 1,150 4,393 3,867

This table shows that for the examined period, some dominant kinds of trees (beech, fir-tree) have lost some part of their area, though some of them (hornbeam, birch, spruce) have increased their presence. Presumably, the cause of these changes is related to anthropogenic activity. As to the impact of climate change, the changes in air temperature and precipitation in Kvemo Svaneti, for the past half-century, are still in the range of natural variability and they could not have significantly affected the forests. However, for the last 15-20 years, the growing spread of pests and diseases has been observed in the forests of the region. In particular, if this index in 1986-1996 did not exceed sanitary norms, in 1997-2005, the number of spruce trees hurt by Ips

 

 

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typographus had increased up to 8%, and the number of Dioryctria splendidella up to 7.3%. The spread of Phellinusa pine (7.6%) and Armillatia mellea (3.5%) had also grown in the coniferous species. Given the background of the recent rises in temperature, the number of injured (to 20%) and excessively dry (to 8%) trees, have increased as well, transforming the Lentekhi region forests into a highly vulnerable category. The projected trends of climate change for the region, if they come about, may presumably further increase the vulnerability of the Kvemo Svaneti forests. Based on the results of the survey of the ecological status of the forests of the Lentekhi region, a number of degraded forest groves were selected in different areas, whose rehabilitation will be necessary to avoid the already developing processes of landslide formation, and the development of other negative phenomena. Glaciers. According to direct topographic measurements carried out in 1953-1958, twenty small glaciers were registered in the basin of the Tskhenistskali River, a total area which reached 12.5 km2. Among them, the most significant was the Koruldashi Glacier covering the Caucasus Mountains; the glaciers of the Tskhenistskali River basin are currently undergoing a process of intensive degradation. In particular, direct observations undertaken during 1965-1990 revealed that the rate of retreat of the Koruldashi Glacier varied in different years, from 2.0 m/yr to 4.6 m/yr, making on average a retreat of 3.4 m per annum. Due to an absence of measurements data since 1990, to assess the trend of this ongoing glacier degradation, in the Tskhenistskali River basin, the results of a co-operative survey of the Central Caucasus glaciers, performed by researchers from the Reading and the Moscow State Universities, were used [14]. According to these results, based upon the analyses of satellite images, obtained for the period 1985-2000, it was determined that in the examined period, the mean rate of the glaciers retreat was equal to 8 m/yr, and that the area covered by glaciers had decreased by 6-9%. The assessment based upon these results has shown that for the past half-century, the total area of glaciers in Kvemo Svaneti may have decreased by 25%, and their total volume may have been reduced from 1.2 km3 down to 0.8 km3, which corresponds to the present stock of water in them, equal to 700 million m3. The projected rise in temperature, up to 2050, may result in the total disappearance of glaciers in Kvemo Svaneti. 4.1.5. Health The study on the vulnerability and possibilities of human health adaptation to climate change was conducted both for the whole territory of Georgia, and, as far as possible, for the selected priority regions [15]. This survey was also based upon long-term statistics available at the Ministry of Health Care, as well as from the data of major medical centres on the spread of basic diseases, and their trends for recent years. On the basis of this study, higher risk groups have been identified, those being the most vulnerable in their health to climatic changes. Attention was focused predominantly on the impact of high air temperatures and the probability of heat wave induced disorders being spread. It was determined that the probability of such heat disorders is highest in elderly people, and to a lesser extent in small children. Finally, it was derived that the most sensitive category to changes in climate elements was that of elderly people. According to studies performed up to 2003, the leading cause of death in the mortality structure of Georgia was cardiovascular disease (65.6%, index 637.5 per 100,000 residents) and

 

 

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oncological illnesses (12.3%, index 131.2). In third place came disorders of the digestive organs (4.8%, index 51.4). As for the morbidity rate, the main causes of death in the adult population are first blood circulation system illnesses, secondly, infectious and parasitic diseases, then ailments in digestion, and illnesses of the respiratory and endocrine systems. In recent years the trend towards an increase in the frequency of blood circulation system diseases became evident in Georgia as a whole. According to the questioning of physicians of different profiles, the impact of climate factors has been reflected mostly in arterial hypertension and stenocardia/infarction. These diseases are most affected by high temperatures, while pathologies of the respiratory system are primarily caused by low temperatures and high humidity. As for infectious illnesses, an analysis of the distribution of the vector borne diseases indicated that malaria is spread predominantly in the extreme eastern part of Georgia – in the Kakheti region (including Dedoplistskaro) and leishmaniasis is still localized in Tbilisi. In the Dedoplistskaro region where for the past half-century an increase in the mean annual temperature of 0.60C has been detected, is the first place where the hazards of spreading vector-born diseases and diarrhoea pathologies are to be expected. International experts agree that the manifestation of new cases of transmitted infectious illnesses and the increase in their frequency can be used as an indicator of the changes in local climate conditions. According to studies conducted in different countries, the optimum temperature range for the activisation of vector–carrying insects is 26 – 30 0C. The meteorological observations carried out in Dedoplistskaro in 1990-2005 have shown that in summer the mean monthly temperature here at present varies between 19.6–22.90C, which does not create favourable conditions for the massive activity of vector–carrying insects throughout the entire summer period. However, according to the forecast, the increase of monthly temperatures by 5.90C is anticipated in summer, resulting in the increase of mean monthly temperatures up to the range of 25.5–28.80C. This means that to the end of the current century the essential deterioration of conditions causing the spread of vector-born diseases is expected in the DTR. Among the infectious diseases, only malaria and leishmaniasis have already spread in Georgia, and the targeted hotbed of malaria is believed to be Kakheti, and to a lesser extent the neighbouring Kvemo Kartli region. The variability of local cases of malaria throughout 1996-2005, is shown in Figure 4.1.5.1. From the detected total of 438 cases, 319 cases (73%) were attributed to the Kakheti region.

0

100

200

300

400

500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Figure 4.1.5.1. Trend of malaria cases in Georgia, 1996-2005

 

 

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As a result of efforts undertaken by local health care services, after 2001-2002, a decline in malaria cases became obvious. However, the complete eradication of malaria could not be achieved in Georgia, partly due to the spread of infection from neighbouring Azerbaijan, and Armenia, where the number of people infected is even much greater. Unlike cases of malaria, the dynamics of leishmaniasis cases in Georgia (mainly in Tbilisi) for the same period of time shows an increase of cases, up from 15 in 1995 to 160 in 2005 (Figure 4.1.5.2).

0

50

100

150

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Figure 4.1.5.2. Trend of Leishmaniasis cases in Georgia, 1996-2005

Hence, as the problem of malaria is of special importance for Armenia, leishmaniasis is more widely spread and, consequently, more important in Georgia. The number of registered cases at the present time does not give enough reason to say that there is an epidemic of leishmaniasis, and moreover of malaria, in Georgia. Nevertheless, in case of a growth in the mean annual temperature, an increase in the frequency of these parasitic infections shall follow this trend. The DTR is a very favourable territory for the spreading of malaria, and hence the health care services have to establish necessary controls to reduce to a minimum the anticipated risks. Along with air temperature, an increase in the frequency and duration of drought affects the spread of infectious diseases. The risk of a diarrhoea epidemic is sufficiently high in the DTR, with its chronic water deficit. According to some estimates, an increase in the mean temperature of 10C causes a growth of diarrhoea cases, by 8%. Turning to statistics on the spread and frequency of diseases in Kvemo Svaneti and neighbouring Racha–Lentekhi region, in 2003 and 2004, an alarmingly high frequency of blood circulation disorders had been detected there: in a population of about 60,000, 21-22,000 sicknesses and 2,500-2,600 illness cases had been registered there annually, exceeding the average of the Georgia Index by 3.5 (sickness) and 1.6 (illness). The presence of 8 resorts in the territory of the Lentekhi region indicates that the natural conditions here are favourable to human health, and therefore the reason for cardiovascular diseases should be found in relation to other factors. Presumably, this fact could be caused by hard socio-economic conditions, aggravated in recent years by the impact of disastrous events related to climate change. Another important factor is believed to be the aging of the population, caused by an intensive flow of youth out of the region, in view of the deteriorating socio-economic situation. Along with the above-discussed diseases, human health is threatened by heat waves, the frequency of which has increased significantly in relation to global warming. To define the

 

 

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intensity of these waves, different indices are used, including the Heat Wave Index (HWI), which is calculated by a combination of air temperature and humidity, and the wind speed. The value of this non-dimensional index varies in the range of 0 to 1. A value below 0.22 corresponds to comfortable conditions; the value between 0.22 and 0.45 varies in the range of hazards, when a long presence of high temperatures or physical loading causes human tiredness. The index value 0.45 – 0.56 represents extreme hazard limits, with 0.56 – 0.64 denoting clearly hazardous conditions, and more than 0.64 – extremely hazardous conditions. In the framework of the first survey undertaken during the preparation of the SNC, the values of HWI were calculated for the above-mentioned “standard” periods, using the records of the meteorological stations Lentekhi, Tbilisi and Dedoplistskaro. The examined time period included 5 months during the warm season, from May to September. Most of the cases reaching hazardous limits were observed in Tbilisi during the second “standard” period, in July and August, and in Lentekhi for the first period – in May. The variation in the number of years with monthly values exceeding the lower limit of hazard (0.22) is shown in Table 4.1.5.1, according to which the occurrence of HWI values above this limit has significantly decreased over the last years in Lentekhi, and considerably increased in Tbilisi, remaining practically unchanged in Dedoplistskaro.

Table 4.1.5.1. Number of cases exceeding critical limit (0.22) of HWI index

Site Period Month

Total Difference(II – I)

% V VI VII VIII IX Lentekhi 1955-1970 (I) 15 1 0 0 4 20 -35

1990-2005 (II) 10 0 1 1 1 13

Tbilisi 1955-1970 (I) 8 2 8 8 2 28 +28 1990-2005 (II) 8 1 13 13 1 36

Dedoplistskaro 1955-1970 (I) 13 1 2 0 3 19 +5 1990-2005 (II) 8 0 5 7 0 20

To illustrate the above mentioned results in the Figure 4.1.5.3 most critical months are demonstrated for Lentekhi, Dedoplistskaro and Tbilisi.

Lentekhi (June)

 

 

144

Figures 4.1.5.3: Course of HWI indices in I and II periods Correlation of the obtained results with a variation in the frequency of blood circulation and other diseases, has been hampered by an absence of relevant medical statistics, although it could be said that a clear tendency in the growth of HWI in Tbilisi may be connected to the “urban heating” effect, which has caused a significant rise in mortality in large cities (Paris, London, New York, etc.), especially in the category of elderly people.   

4.2. Adaptation measures

4.2.1 Black Sea coastal zone

The Black Sea coastal zone adaptation strategy. In the process of preparing Georgia’s SNC, it has once more been confirmed that Georgia’s Black Sea coastal zone, and especially its Poti and Adlia sections, are the most vulnerable ecosystems to global warming in the country. Description of the problem. The global warming and climate change process is accompanied by a number of phenomena provoked by this process itself. These phenomena are regarded as indicators for the assessment of marine ecosystem vulnerability. The vulnerability of marine ecosystems is determined by the intensity of their exposure. To assess the vulnerability to climate change of the Georgia Black Sea coastal zone a number of criteria were selected, on the basis of which the following hazards were identified:

                                                             I period bold line; II period discrete line.

Tbilisi (August)

Dedoplistskaro (September)

 

 

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Given the background of current global warming, four major hazards were revealed for

the Black Sea ecosystem: an increasing rate of eustasy (sea level rise relative to land); growing intensity and frequency of storm surges (storms), and change in their seasonal appearance; increasing intensity of sedimentation processes in the deltas of glacier-fed rivers (endangering only the Rioni Delta and its mid-flow) and changing thermal features of the sea. The growing probability of days with heavy precipitation increases the probability and intensity of floods at the Rioni River, as the backwater curve of river discharge into the sea is rising. Besides these four indicators directly connected with the marine ecosystem, an important role is played by air temperature changes and the growing probability of heat waves during the tourist season.

In addition, the above changes are accompanied by:

Loss of human lives during the storms and floods, stress, injuries, spread of infectious diseases that could cause especially great damage in densely populated deltas having well-developed infrastructure (Poti, Batumi);

Migration of populations resulting from storms, floods and permanent erosion of coastline, which nowadays is a problem only at the Adlia coastal sector, but which could threaten settlements in the deltas of other rivers;

Disintegration of infrastructure or decline in the efficiency of its separate elements as a result of storms, floods and constant washing away of shoreline. The sea level rise, without storms and floods by themselves, causes damages to infrastructure that are clearly illustrated by the Sokhumi section of coastal zone. The eustasy causing a permanent sinking of Sokhumi Terrace is also creating growing problems for the city municipality, through the permanent decrease of underground communications inclinations. Since the 1990s, in some districts of the city, the sewage water network has even attained negative inclinations, relative to the sea;

Storms, floods and permanent erosion of the coast are causing a washing away and degradation of beaches, that could seriously affect the tourism industry;

Despite the fact that agriculture in this region is not a leading sector of the economy, the salinisation of agricultural soils is greatly damaging and could damage in future that part of the population for which the main source of income is agriculture, and in particular the growing of citruses. Presumably, as a result of eustasy, this process is going on at present and should cause significant losses in the future as well;

The change in air temperature could affect the tourist and vegetation seasons (for details see the vulnerability section);

The sea level rise produces profound negative impacts on the preserved territories and on Lake Paliastomi in particular. During the period 1927-2006 the water temperature in the lake had risen by 0.70C, which was accompanied by an increase in water-plant coverage. This intrusion of sea water has increased the salinity of water in the lake, causing the substitution of endemic kinds of fish by marine fish;

The change in sea water temperature jeopardises the fishing sector, as the habitat of fish has been sharply altered.

Measures to be implemented. Considering the hazards discussed above, the following measures have been planned to be implemented in both short and relatively long periods of time:

Periodically informing the local administration of the ongoing processes of climate change and their economic implications. The hazards of which local governments are to

 

 

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be constantly informed, so that they can take necessary measures for avoiding these risks in the most efficient way, are listed below:

1. The impact of climate change on marine ecosystems. The greatest jeopardy

related to climate change is the sea level rise that is enhancing wave activity and intensity of coastal erosion. The frequency and intensity of storms could grow even more. Given the background of glacier melting sedimentation processes in the deltas of glacier-fed rivers, this process will intensify further, which makes it more dangerous for both sea rise and storms. The change in sea surface temperature is influencing the tourism industry, and habitats of fish. The increase of air temperature and the frequency of heat waves (if they should occur) will seriously affect tourism.

2. The impact of climate change on the tourism sector (sea water and air temperature, heat waves, infectious diseases, degradation of beaches) is one of the most important questions which are to be frequently discussed by local government and the Tourism Department.

3. The impact of sea level rise and storms on agriculture (salinisation of arable land) 4. The impact of sea level rise and intensified storms (storm surges), caused by

climate change, on the local infrastructure (transportation network, oil terminals, Poti and its infrastructure, Batumi and its infrastructure, etc.)

5. Climate change impacts on fisheries. The alteration of aquatic environment thermal conditions causes relevant changes in the habitat of plankton, and related kinds of fish. At the same time, as a result of the cooling or warming of upper layers, plankton from the 10-15 m horizon move higher or lower by 5-7 m. Hence, it should find itself in a more favourable or unfavourable environment, provoking an increase or decrease of its population. This circumstance could produce sharply different impacts on the most important ring of the marine ecosystem – some kinds of marketable fish (such as the Black Sea horse-mackerel, scomber, and herring), strengthening or weakening their populations. Moreover, endemic species are being replaced by new kinds of fish.

6. Climate change impact on the Kolkheti Protected Area and on Lake Paliastomi in particular. Since 1970 the surface temperature in the Lake has risen by 0.60C.

Measures to be implemented in the short term Creation of permanent monitoring and early warning systems for Black Sea level rise

and storm intensity; Establishment of a permanent Committee to plan and implement the adaptation

measures to climate change,; Implementation of coastal zone protection measures in the Rioni Delta; Carrying out of sea shore protection measures at the Batumi-Adlia section aimed at the

protection of the Batumi coastal zone; Preparation and implementation of adaptation measures for Lake Paliastomi.

Long-term measures

Assessment of climate change impacts on the development of tourism (heat waves, water temperature, beach degradation) and preparation of adaptation measures;

Rehabilitation of eroded and salinised soils; Consideration of anticipated climate changes in the local infrastructure developmental

process.

Cli

mat

e ch

ange

ad

apta

tion

str

ateg

y fo

r th

e B

lack

Sea

coa

stal

zon

e

Mai

n st

rate

gic

obje

ctiv

e K

ey t

arge

t gr

oups

A

ctiv

ity

Pot

enti

al le

ad

enti

ty

Out

put

Pot

enti

al d

onor

s

Shor

t-ter

m o

bjec

tives

•

GoG

; •

Poti

and

Port

Adm

inis

tratio

n;

• G

over

nmen

t of A

djar

a.

The

shor

t-ter

m a

dapt

atio

n to

clim

ate

chan

ge

stra

tegy

of

the

Bla

ck S

ea c

oast

al z

one

impl

ies

the

crea

tion

of a

mon

itorin

g sy

stem

in

the

Rio

ni

Del

ta

and

carr

ying

ou

t of

co

ast-

prot

ectio

n m

easu

res i

n th

e R

ioni

Del

ta

• C

oast

Pro

tect

ion

serv

ice;

•

Loca

l ad

min

istra

tion.

G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

, Geo

rgia

’s

Nat

iona

l C

omm

unic

atio

n,

CD

M p

roje

cts

1. P

erio

dica

lly in

form

ing

loca

l go

vern

men

t on

the

curr

ent

proc

esse

s and

thei

r eco

nom

ic

impl

icat

ions

• Po

ti an

d B

atum

i loc

al

mun

icip

aliti

es;

• Lo

cal p

rivat

e se

ctor

.

• A

sses

smen

t of c

limat

e ch

ange

in th

e B

lack

Sea

coa

stal

zon

e;

• A

sses

smen

t of m

arin

e ec

osys

tem

s in

dica

tors

(eus

tasy

, sto

rms,

sedi

men

tatio

n, th

erm

al p

aram

eter

s)

agai

nst t

he b

ackg

roun

d of

cur

rent

and

fu

ture

clim

ate

chan

ge;

• A

sses

smen

t of t

he im

pact

of c

limat

e an

d m

arin

e ec

osys

tem

s par

amet

ers c

hang

e on

th

e en

viro

nmen

t, so

cial

sphe

re a

nd

econ

omy

(on

the

basi

s of s

elec

ted

indi

cato

rs);

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

repo

rts a

nd p

ublic

atio

ns.

• H

ydro

met

eoro

logy

an

d C

limat

e C

hang

e A

dmin

istra

tion

at

the

Min

istry

of

Envi

ronm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al R

esou

rces

.

• Lo

cal g

over

nmen

t in

form

ed o

f cur

rent

pr

oces

ses a

nd a

ntic

ipat

ed

adve

rse

resu

lts.

GEF

, Gov

ernm

ent o

f th

e N

ethe

rland

s, G

oG, L

ocal

go

vern

men

t

2. C

reat

ion

in th

e R

ioni

Del

ta o

f a

perm

anen

t mon

itorin

g an

d ea

rly w

arni

ng sy

stem

for

ob

serv

ing

the

Bla

ck S

ea le

vel

rise

and

stor

m in

tens

ity

• Po

ti an

d Sa

mtre

dia

mun

icip

aliti

es;

• Po

rt an

d oi

l ter

min

al

auth

oriti

es;

• A

utho

rity

of K

olkh

eti

Prot

ecte

d A

rea;

•

Emer

genc

y si

tuat

ions

st

aff;

• N

atio

nal E

nviro

nmen

t A

genc

y an

d it’

s ob

serv

atio

n st

atio

ns (P

oti,

Sam

tredi

a, Z

esta

phon

i);

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

.

• C

reat

ion

of p

erm

anen

t mon

itorin

g ce

ntre

at

thre

e lo

catio

ns: P

oti,

Sam

tredi

a an

d Ze

stap

honi

; •

Car

ryin

g ou

t of o

bser

vatio

ns: i

n Po

ti on

m

eteo

rolo

gica

l, hy

drol

ogic

al a

nd

ocea

nolo

gica

l par

amet

ers;

in Z

esta

phon

i an

d Sa

mtre

dia

on m

eteo

rolo

gica

l and

hy

drol

ogic

al p

aram

eter

s (R

ioni

Riv

er);

• Pr

ovis

ion

of c

omm

unic

atio

n sy

stem

fu

nctio

ning

bet

wee

n th

e th

ree

obse

rvat

ion

stat

ions

; •

Esta

blis

hmen

t of e

arly

war

ning

syst

em fo

r th

e lo

cal g

over

nmen

t, po

pula

tion

and

priv

ate

sect

or h

avin

g vu

lner

able

faci

litie

s;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

Act

ion

Plan

for e

xtre

me

situ

atio

ns .

• Po

ti an

d Sa

mtre

dia

loca

l ad

min

istra

tions

; •

Loca

l aut

horit

y of

K

olke

ti Pr

otec

ted

Are

a;

• N

atio

nal

Envi

ronm

ent

Age

ncy.

• Pe

rman

ent m

onito

ring

syst

em in

Pot

i, Sa

mtre

dia

- Rio

ni H

PP a

nd

Zest

apho

ni in

stal

led;

•

Emer

genc

y A

ctio

n Pl

an

for a

ll vu

lner

able

se

gmen

ts a

nd e

ntiti

es

prep

ared

for e

mer

genc

y si

tuat

ions

; •

Trai

ning

s are

car

ried

out

aim

ed a

t all

stak

ehol

ders

fo

r the

eff

icie

nt

impl

emen

tatio

n of

ex

istin

g A

ctio

n Pl

an.

Proj

ect p

ropo

sal i

s su

bmitt

ed to

GEF

(2

006)

, Por

t of P

oti

adm

inis

tratio

n, o

il te

rmin

al

3.Es

tabl

ishm

ent o

f Com

mitt

ee

to p

lan

and

impl

emen

t the

m

easu

res f

or th

e ad

apta

tion

to

clim

ate

chan

ge

• G

over

nmen

t of G

eorg

ia;

cent

ral a

utho

rity

and

loca

l ad

min

istra

tion.

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

reco

mm

enda

tion

for t

he

Geo

rgia

n go

vern

men

t on

the

esta

blis

hmen

t of

Com

mitt

ee to

im

plem

ent t

he a

dapt

atio

n st

rate

gy fo

r the

B

lack

Sea

coa

stal

zon

e;

• M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

;

• C

omm

ittee

on

the

impl

emen

tatio

n of

ad

apta

tion

stra

tegy

for t

he

Bla

ck S

ea c

oast

al z

one

es

tabl

ishe

d an

d ha

s

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia, G

EF

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

ena

blin

g le

gisl

ativ

e ba

sis

for t

he im

plem

enta

tion

of a

dapt

atio

n m

easu

res;

•

Car

ryin

g ou

t of c

onsu

ltatio

ns w

ith a

ll st

akeh

olde

rs;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

Ada

ptat

ion

Act

ion

Plan

.

• M

inis

try o

f Ju

stic

e.

clea

rly d

efin

ed ri

ghts

and

ob

ligat

ions

; •

Legi

slat

ive

basi

s fo

r the

im

plem

enta

tion

of

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res

crea

ted;

•

Act

ion

Plan

for t

he B

lack

Se

a co

asta

l zon

e ad

apta

tion

to c

limat

e ch

ange

pre

pare

d an

d ad

opte

d.

4.Im

plem

enta

tion

of c

oast

pr

otec

tion

mea

sure

s in

the

Rio

ni

Del

ta

• Po

ti lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion

and

Coa

st P

rote

ctio

n Se

rvic

e of

the

Nat

iona

l En

viro

nmen

t Age

ncy.

• Fo

r a n

umbe

r of c

oast

pro

tect

ion

scen

ario

s dis

cuss

ed in

the

proj

ect

prop

osal

on

the

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res i

n th

e R

ioni

Del

ta m

ost o

ptim

al sh

ould

be

chos

en;

• M

easu

res p

lann

ed in

the

fram

ewor

k of

se

lect

ed sc

enar

io sh

ould

be

impl

emen

ted.

Pr

esum

ably

, the

se m

easu

res a

re:

cons

truct

ion

of se

dim

ent k

eepi

ng m

ole

at

the

Poti

Can

yon,

and

boo

ns to

the

sout

h of

“D

idi”

Isla

nd.

• C

oast

Pro

tect

ion

Serv

ice

of th

e N

atio

nal

Envi

ronm

ent

Age

ncy.

• Th

e ra

te o

f sea

shor

e er

osio

n an

d w

ashe

d aw

ay

area

s dec

reas

ed;

• Fl

oods

on

the

Rio

ni R

iver

be

com

e le

ss d

ange

rous

an

d de

stru

ctiv

e;

• Th

e ad

vers

e im

pact

of

stor

ms u

pon

the

coas

tal

zone

less

ened

; •

Loca

l inf

rast

ruct

ure

and

popu

latio

n m

ore

prot

ecte

d, e

cono

mic

loss

de

crea

sed;

•

The

impa

ct o

f clim

ate

chan

ge o

n pr

otec

ted

terr

itorie

s dec

reas

ed.

Inte

rnat

iona

l aid

pr

ogra

mm

es,

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia, l

ocal

bu

dget

5.C

arry

ing

out o

f coa

st

prot

ectio

n m

easu

res a

t the

Adl

ia-

Bat

umi s

ectio

n ai

med

at t

he

prot

ectio

n of

Bat

umi c

oast

al

zone

• B

atum

i loc

al

adm

inis

tratio

n an

d C

oast

Pr

otec

tion

Serv

ice

of th

e N

atio

nal E

nviro

nmen

t A

genc

y.

• Fo

r a n

umbe

r of c

oast

pro

tect

ion

scen

ario

s dis

cuss

ed in

pro

ject

pro

posa

l on

the

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res i

n th

e C

horo

khi

Del

ta (A

dlia

-Bat

umi s

ectio

n) m

ost

optim

al sh

ould

be

chos

en;

• M

easu

res p

lann

ed in

the

fram

ewor

k of

se

lect

ed sc

enar

io a

re to

be

impl

emen

ted.

Pr

esum

ably

, the

se m

easu

res a

re: b

uild

ing

of se

dim

ent k

eepi

ng h

ydro

tech

nica

l co

nstru

ctio

ns, a

rtific

ial r

efill

ing

of

exis

ting

defic

it in

the

coas

tal s

edim

ent

budg

et.

• C

oast

Pro

tect

ion

Serv

ice

of th

e N

atio

nal

Envi

ronm

ent

Age

ncy.

• Th

e ra

te o

f sea

shor

e er

osio

n an

d w

ashe

d aw

ay

area

s dec

reas

ed;

• Th

e ad

vers

e im

pact

of

stor

ms u

pon

the

coas

tal

zone

dec

reas

ed;

• L

ocal

infr

astru

ctur

e (a

irpor

t, tra

nspo

rtatio

n ne

twor

k, e

tc.)

and

popu

latio

n ar

e m

ore

secu

re;

• A

ntic

ipat

ed e

cono

mic

loss

de

crea

sed;

•

The

nega

tive

impa

ct o

f cl

imat

e ch

ange

on

tour

ism

de

crea

sed.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Tu

rkey

, (D

ebt-f

or-

Envi

ronm

ent),

the

Cho

rokh

i H

PPs

casc

ade

Aut

horit

y,

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia, l

ocal

bu

dget

6.Pr

epar

atio

n an

d im

plem

enta

tion

of th

e La

ke

Palia

stom

i ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s

• A

dmin

istra

tion

of

Kol

khet

i Pro

tect

ed

Terr

itory

.

• D

etai

led

inve

stig

atio

n of

clim

ate

chan

ge

impa

ct o

n th

e La

ke P

alia

stom

i (w

ater

te

mpe

ratu

re, s

alin

isat

ion

and

thei

r im

pact

on

fish

); •

Prep

arat

ion

of a

dapt

atio

n m

easu

res;

•

Sear

chin

g fo

r inv

estm

ents

to im

plem

ent

the

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res.

• D

epar

tmen

t of

Prot

ecte

d A

reas

A

dmin

istra

tion

of

Kol

khet

i Pro

tect

ed

Terr

itory

.

• R

epor

t on

clim

ate

chan

ge

impa

ct o

n th

e La

ke

Palia

stom

i pre

pare

d;

• A

dapt

atio

n m

easu

res

sele

cted

; •

Ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s im

plem

ente

d.

Inte

rnat

iona

l aid

pr

ogra

mm

es

7.A

sses

smen

t of c

limat

e ch

ange

im

pact

on

tour

ism

(hea

t wav

es,

wat

er te

mpe

ratu

re, d

egra

datio

n of

bea

ches

) and

pre

para

tion

of

adap

tatio

n m

easu

res

• A

djar

a To

uris

m

Dep

artm

ent.

• S

tudy

of h

eat w

aves

tren

d at

the

Adj

ara

coas

tal z

one

and

asse

ssm

ent o

f fut

ure

trend

; •

Exam

inat

ion

of th

e im

pact

of h

eat w

aves

on

the

tour

ist s

easo

n;

• In

cas

e of

reve

alin

g se

rious

neg

ativ

e im

pact

of h

eat w

aves

on

the

tour

ist s

easo

n ad

optio

n of

per

man

ent m

onito

ring

and

ea

rly w

arni

ng sy

stem

dur

ing

the

tour

ist

seas

on.

• M

inis

try o

f La

bour

, Hea

lth

Car

e an

d So

cial

Se

curit

y of

A

djar

a;

• A

djar

a br

anch

of

Tour

ism

D

epar

tmen

t.

• R

epor

t on

the

trend

of

heat

wav

es in

the

Adj

ara

coas

tal z

one;

•

Rep

ort o

n th

e im

pact

of

heat

wav

es o

n th

e to

uris

t se

ason

; •

In c

ase

of re

veal

ing

serio

us n

egat

ive

impa

ct o

f he

at w

aves

eff

ectiv

enes

s of

ear

ly w

arni

ng sy

stem

.

USA

ID, G

EF, T

hird

N

atio

nal

Com

mun

icat

ion

on

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

8.R

ehab

ilita

tion

of e

rode

d an

d sa

linis

ed so

ils

• M

inis

try o

f Agr

icul

ture

; •

Loca

l gov

ernm

ent a

nd

popu

latio

n en

gage

d in

ag

ricul

ture

.

• A

sses

smen

t the

stat

us o

f sal

inis

ed (a

reas

, de

gree

of s

alin

isat

ion,

etc

.);

• Id

entif

icat

ion

of m

easu

res t

o re

habi

litat

e sa

linis

ed so

ils (w

here

it is

pos

sibl

e);

• Im

plem

enta

tion

of p

lann

ed m

easu

res.

• D

iffer

ent r

esea

rch

inst

itutio

ns re

late

d to

the

soil

scie

nce

and

land

de

grad

atio

n;

• N

GO

s wor

king

in

agric

ultu

re se

ctor

; •

Min

istry

of

Agr

icul

ture

.

• D

etai

led

repo

rt on

the

stat

us o

f sal

inis

ed so

ils

affe

cted

by

the

sea

(sea

le

vel r

ise,

stor

ms)

; •

Portf

olio

of

reco

mm

enda

tions

on

the

reha

bilit

atio

n of

ag

ricul

tura

l lan

d an

d m

anag

emen

t mea

sure

s;

• Pl

anne

d m

easu

res

impl

emen

ted;

•

Car

ryin

g ou

t of p

erio

dica

l m

onito

ring.

GEF

, UN

FCC

C

Ada

ptat

ion

Fund

, lo

cal p

opul

atio

n en

gage

d in

ag

ricul

ture

9.Ta

king

into

con

side

ratio

n an

ticip

ated

clim

ate

chan

ge in

the

proc

ess o

f loc

al in

fras

truct

ure

deve

lopm

ent

• Po

ti, B

atum

i and

Sa

mtre

dia

Loca

l m

unic

ipal

ities

, Per

man

ent

Stee

ring

Com

mitt

ee o

n pl

anni

ng a

nd

impl

emen

tatio

n of

ad

apta

tion

mea

sure

s to

clim

ate

chan

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151

Adaptation proposals (A-1) Management of climate-change driven risks in the Rioni Delta Project Objective: The project objective is to reduce the vulnerability of existing coastal settlements, the city of Poti, and infrastructure in the Poti Port area and the Rioni Delta, to climate-change driven coastal hazards. The goal of the project is to achieve sustainable development in the low lying coasts of the Georgian Black Sea by the adoption of an early warning system and risk management in the Rioni River Delta. Project participants: Poti Municipality, Poti Port Administration, Coast Protection Service, local observation network, HPPs on the Rioni River, Private Sector and Government of Georgia. Problem: The main barriers to addressing the adverse impacts of climate change on the target coastal area are: The absence of appropriate knowledge, technologies and policy frameworks for

adaptation. As a result, instead of implementation of preventive measures responses to climatic extremes are reactive so far, placing significant burdens on local economies, including local budgets;

The lack of a monitoring system to permanently control and ensure adequate coastal protection and provide for a timely warning to the population;

Integrated coastal area management is not a well-established practice in the Georgian Black Sea coast region, which could if it was developed accommodate adaptation needs into its coastal development planning.

Activities to be implemented in the project framework: To achieve the project objective and get over the above-mentioned barriers the following tasks are to be carried out:

1. Creation and development of local capacity to assess the vulnerability of the Rioni River Delta and to implement preventive measures. In particular: Introduction of an early warning system to monitor the impacts of climate

change on the selected area of the Rioni River Delta and prevent unexpected hazards, including the possibility of long-term forecasting;

Preparation of Adaptation Guidelines in cooperation with local administration;

Awareness raising among stakeholders by training, including on-job training and direct participation in activities.

2. Creation of a legislative and regulatory basis to promote the implementation of adaptation measures in the Rioni Delta: Development of an adaptation planning mechanism for the vulnerable

communities and sectors of economy; Improvement of the legislative basis and activation of the planning

mechanism with stakeholder participation; Consideration of climate-change driven hazards in the Integrated Coastal Area

Management (ICAM) plan.

 

 

152

3. Rising of awareness of local stakeholders on climate-change induced anticipated hazards and adaptation measures to mitigate them. Awareness-raising and preparedness to implement the measures: Introduction of mechanisms and procedures to monitor and assess project

results; Gathering, analysis and dissemination of information using the Adaptation

Learning Mechanism (ALM) and other mechanisms. Project cost: USD 1,000,000

(A-2) Adaptation measures in the Rioni Delta

Project Objective: The project objective is to reduce the vulnerability of Poti Port and the infrastructure of the city of Poti to climate-change driven coastal hazards. The goal of the project is to provide sustainable development of Poti Port and the infrastructure of the urban area by protecting the coastal line of the Rioni Delta from the impact of sea waves and river floods by heaping up inert material and using special constructions. Project participants: Poti Municipality, Coast Protection Service. Problem: The construction in the 19th century of a Poti port and in the 20th century of four hydropower plants on the Rioni River drastically altered the transportation of sediment conditions at the sea-shore line, provoking the erosion of beaches south of the port and formation of a new delta north of the port. The first of these processes resulted in the permanent loss of land in the city coastal area, while the second process caused constant silting of the entrance to the port, thus hampering its activity. The silting of the coast has affected the new bed of the Rioni River as well, significantly decreasing its capacity. This has increased the frequency of floods damaging the city. This process in turn has been intensified over the last few decades by the increasing run-off of the Rioni as a result of global warming. The situation is additionally aggravated by the climate-change driven sea level rise and growing storm intensity, blocking the river discharge into the sea. Several attempts have been made since the 1940s to suppress the natural balnce of this ecosystem: a new branch of the river (the Nabada Canal) was constructed to the north of the city, the old river-bed was transformed into a concrete channel, rows of piles and broken stone dams were built along the coast in the sea, artificial deliveries of sand to the emergency coastal areas were made, the piled-up stone dam was reinforced and elevated, the refilling of sand was continuously undertaken for 7 years at the emergency parts of the coast, the entrance canal to the port is being constantly cleaned up. These activities have with varying success mitigated for a time the coastal erosion and silting processes. However, since 1993 coast protection activities have ceased and after 1994 the coastal zone began to return to emergency status, like the one existing before 1986. To mitigate the results of these processes and to adapt to their impact a number of proposals were prepared. Activities to be implemented in the project framework: Based on the above-discussed consideration and the analysis of available data, five options of coast protection measures have

 

 

153

been worked out for different parts of the Poti coastal zone, that are summarised in Table (A-2) -1. Coast protection scenarios have been assessed both from the morphological and economic standpoints. The morphological criteria were: “Flexibility” – the adaptation potential of a protection scenario to changes in natural conditions (river run-off, sea level rise, etc.); “Reliability” – its actual effectiveness in relation to the assumed one; The “Risk Factor” – expected destabilisation of the coastal zone during the implementation of protection scenarios, e.g., the activation of a submarine canyon (Table (A-2) -1).

Table (A-2) -1. Estimation of protection scenarios from the morphological and financial viewpoint

Type of scenario

N Protection scenario Flexibility Reliability Risk Total cost, USD

million

Soft

1 Heaping up of inert material from the Nabada delta in the area of “Didi” Island and the mouth of the Supsa River

++ ++ - 76.7

2 Heaping up of inert material from the bed of the Rioni River in the area of “Didi” Island and the mouth of the Supsa River

++ - - 107.1

3 Increase of City Canal capacity 0 -- 38.9

Har

d

4 Construction of sediment-retaining pier at the Poti Canyon and of boons to the south of “Didi” Island

- 0 - 54.4

5 Construction of piled rock and stone along the coast of “Didi” Island and of boons south of the island

- 0 0 58.3

Notes: (++) – very positive; (+) – positive; (0) – neutral; (-) – negative

Analysis of the scenarios discussed above shows that the optimum option for the protection of the Poti sea coast is a combination of scenarios 1.2 and 2.1 with the exclusion of the system south of the “Didi” Island, and the possibility of substitution of the 1.2 scenario by the 1.1 scenario. Project cost: Based upon estimations of the total cost of different scenarios and the above-mentioned consideration the total cost of the project is estimated to vary in the range of USD 100-130 million. (A-3) Coast protection measures in Batumi-Adlia sea shore zone

Project Objective: The project objective is to reduce the vulnerability of Batumi-Adlia sea-shore zone to climate-change driven coastal hazards, enhanced by anthropogenic loading. The goal of the project is to protect Batumi-Adlia coastal resort area and the infrastructure of Batumi Airport from the devastating impact of sea waves by piling up beach-forming material and retaining sediment. Project participants: Batumi Municipality, Coast Protection Service, Batumi Airport, Government of Adjara.

 

 

154

Problem: The construction of the Batumi Port at the end of the 19th century had a crucial impact on the development of the Adjara coastal zone, and on its Batumi-Adlia section in particular, by disturbing the natural process of sediment distribution along the sea coast. As a result, a Batumi accumulation cape formed in the 20th century, accompanied by the erosion of the Adjara-Batumi coastal zone, fed by the sediment of the Chorokhi River. The situation has been drastically aggravated since the beginning of the 2000s after the construction on the Chorokhi of a cascade of dams at hydropower plants in Turkey, the number of which will grow to 10. This further blocking of sediment by dams will destabilise the Adlia coastal zone even more. At present the rate of sea shore erosion here has increased to 3-5 m/yr, while in the 20th century it equalled 2.2 m/yr. That process of coastal erosion is being enhanced by the permanent sea level rise at a rate of about 2.5 mm/yr, caused by global warming. Current climate change has also provoked a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of storms in the region, additionally contributing to the accelerated erosion of the coastal zone. Coastal protection measures have been carried out in the Adjara coastal zone since the beginning of the 20th century. Reinforced concrete coast-consolidating constructions of various types were built, but they have failed to solve the Adjara sea shore protection problem. Since 1982 a new method for the rehabilitation and management of coast-forming processes has been adopted, based upon the artificial filling of existing deficit by beach-forming material, transported from the mouth of the Chorokhi River.Following these measures, it became possible to stop the erosion of the Adlia coastal line and to prevent danger to both the Batumi Airport runway and the dwellings of the local population. Since 1991, coastal protection measures have not been carried out, as a result of which the process of coastal retreat has reactivated sharply. Activities to be implemented in the project framework: In the last period, a number of coast-protection measures were worked out to protect the sea shore at the Batumi-Adlia section, which are summarised in Table (A-3) – 1.

Table (A-3) -1. Short description of coast protection options, their objectives

and term for obtaining results N Protection scenario Flexibility Reliability Risk Total cost,

USD million

1 Refilling of beach-forming material at the Adlia emergency section Piling of 150-200,000 m3 of material at the coastal zone

+ + + 0 65

2 Construction of sediment retainers in front of Batumi underwater canyon and refilling of beach-forming material at the Adlia emergency section (combined method) Permanent filling up of the sediment stock

+ + - - 88

3 Construction of the boon system in the Batumi-Adlia coastal zone Piling up of 750,000 m3 of inert material over 25 years

- 0 0 65 (without

creation of beaches)

 

 

155

For the optional creation of recreational beaches amid boons, filling up of 2 million m3 of beach-forming material in the same period

4 Creation of stone piles at the emergency strip (about 2 km) in Adlia Heaping of 50,000 m3 of beach-forming material annually

- 0 0 18-20

Notes: (++) – very positive; (+) – positive; (0) – neutral; (-) – negative Analysing these scenarios it has been derived that preference is to be given to the artificial piling up of beach-forming material, i.e. to the first and second options. Project cost: Estimations of total cost of different options of the project are given in the final column of the table. Hence it can be assessed that the total cost of the project is to vary in the range of USD 65-88 million. 4.2.2 Dedoplistskaro region  Dedoplistskaro region adaptation strategy. The adaptation proposals presented below have been elaborated in the framework of the SNC since the beginning of its preparation. One of them devoted to the rehabilitation of wind-breakers is already being implemented with the financial support of the German government (GTZ) and another related to the rehabilitation of degraded arable land through planting of energy groves is under consideration by the same donor. Description of the problem. The DTR was traditionally considered to be one of the most vulnerable regions in Georgia. In spite of high climate-related risks, its role in the country’s economy has always been important. The only sector of the economy developed in the region has been agriculture, and in particular grain and sunflower production, and animal husbandry. At present, grain production and live-stock farming remain the only sources of income for the region. However, since 2003, the enlargement of protected territories and their use in the development of a tourism infrastructure has been considered a new priority of the local government. Certain anthropogenic measures were systematically carried out in the region because of its high ecological vulnerability. In particular, the artificial watering of territories was systematically undertaken on the basis of four irrigation systems, but today they have been completely destroyed. Wind-breakers were established to protect the soil humus against high speed winds, but now they have been totally cut down and used as an energy resource. These protective measures were organised and carried out by socialist collective farms called “Kolmeurneoba”. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent disintegration of the collective farms, a period emerged when the legislation on land ownership was fuzzy and the process of agricultural land distribution (privatisation) among the local population was not explicit enough. The new land owners (farmers) came across new sets of problems and, suddenly on their own, were not able to overcome them individually (e.g., problems such as their lack of experience in cultivating and managing thousands of hectares of agricultural lands and pastures, the absence of effective agricultural techniques for land cultivation, the absence of initial investment, the absence of information systems advising farmers on anticipated climatic conditions and their potential impact on harvests, etc.). It became a challenge (and still is) to mobilise locals in village communities to take care of and manage such common objectives as irrigation systems,

 

 

156

wind-breakers, forests, common pastures, etc. As a result, the methods used in the past, such as protection systems including irrigation, wind-breakers, etc., that protected the agricultural sector from severe climatic conditions, couldn’t survive. However, it should be highlighted that even if the former irrigation systems and wind-breakers could have survived anyway, it would have been necessary to reinforce them to meet current climate change challenges. Now everything has to be restored and created all over again to stop ecological migration from the region, and to stop the abandonment of territories and accomplish a full rehabilitation of the region. The process of abandonment of the land by the local population usually starts by converting the arable lands into pastures and later, after full degradation of the pastures, they are abandoned. In the face of natural calamities and other problems, most farmers do not have enough capacity to mobilise the initial investments for carrying out a complete set of agricultural activities. Gradually, uncultivated and unmanaged arable lands and pastures become eroded and degraded. Even for those farmers who are progressive and clever enough to mobilise the necessary investment for land cultivation, it is not easy to gain from the investments due to the gradual decrease of soil fertility. Little by little the initial arable land is transformed into pasture because the “management” of pastures is less expensive. Afterwards, often owing to improper management and ill treatment, these lands become unsuitable even for pasture, and in the final stage they are abandoned. Up to now this process has been more intensive in Taribana Valley, where alkali soils prevail. Due to inactivity, the same processes could spread to Shiraki Valley in the near future. For the most part former pastures have already been privatised but it’s hard and even impossible for the farmers to care for and properly manage them. Currently, the management of the grazing process does not take place at all except on a few privatised pastures where the grazing is relatively limited. One of the methods used by shepherds in common pastures is to burn them in order to provoke quick growth of the grass, which causes complete exhaustion of the soil and gradually transforms it into unusable land. Assisting farmers to implement the proper management process is a little bit complicated, and a political issue in this region, bordering Azerbaijan. For the time being these pastures are illegally used by the shepherds of both countries. About 4,500 hectares of land have been abandoned in the region as a combined result of climate change and anthropogenic factors, and their impact on the productivity of the remaining lands that are still in use has decreased by at least three times compared to the 1980s. A survey conducted in 2004 in the Kakheti region showed that the median annual per-capita income equalled GEL 756.1 (1 USD = 2.0 GEL). The same survey showed that GEL 1,164 annually would be required as per-capita income, that is, for being provided with food and other necessities. Hence, the actual income in 2004 was 35% less than the necessary minimum. The Deprivation Index, calculated for the DTR, appeared to be 54%, which is 13% higher than the Kakheti region as a whole. This fact has caused the decrease of the region’s population by 18%, from the beginning of the 1990s. Taking into consideration that Dedoplistskaro is a border region, from a political standpoint, it should be a priority policy of the government to stop the migration process and to develop the local infrastructure. Decreases in soil and pasture productivity cause serious economic loss to the government. In the short-term, considering the hard natural conditions and the impact of climate change in the region, it’s obvious that the investment necessary for the adaptation of the region is much greater compared to the benefit that could be achieved in the next 10 years, as a result of continuing with former measures.

 

 

157

However, if political, social, and economic losses are assessed from a long-term perspective (20 years or more), in which these limited fertility agricultural lands could become serious problems for the country, it can be seen that present investments will help the region survive and promote its sustainable development. The later investments are made, the more expensive it will be. Considering the abandoned lands, departing population, and lost flora and fauna, the total investment for each year of delay is significantly growing. As for tourism, the impact of climate change on our tourist routes should be studied thoroughly, because tourists are passing through the protected territories. These areas improve the microclimate of adjacent territories and mitigate the adverse influence of climate change on agricultural lands and pastures. At the same time, the protected territories in DTR are the best spots to monitor the actual impact of climate change on the natural ecosystems, for in these territories, any anthropogenic activity is prohibited. Anticipated risks. Anticipated risks in the DTR can be summarised as follows:

Anticipated changes in climatic parameters will accelerate the wind erosion of land and extend the duration of drought. According to this forecast, the air temperature will increase and air humidity index will decrease. This process will be accompanied by unchanged and even declining rainfall resulting in increased soil erosion;

The fertility of agricultural lands and pastures will be further decreased by the growing erosion and increased deficit of water;

Water deficit for wheat will probably grow by a further 73% which will affect its quality and especially its nutritional value. A further 17% deficit of water is predicted for sunflower crops, and a 29% deficit for pastures;

Abandonment of lands by the population (farmers) and a rise in unemployment and poverty;

Increase in the number of ecological migrants and as a result a depopulation of the region;

High risk in the growth of malaria cases; Degradation of endemic species of flora and migration of endemic species of fauna; Decrease in the number of migrating birds and a change in their kinds.

Activities to be implemented Short-term measures

Establishment of an infrastructure ensuring supply of information to the local population and farmers on the ongoing processes related to climate change and their economic implications;

Sustainable provision to the local population of renewable energy resources (biogas, solar energy, energy-efficient wood stoves, biomass);

Facilitating the local private sector to participate in renewable energy (biomass, firewood) supply projects and particularly in PPP (Public Private Partnership) programmes. Maximum utilisation of solar energy in the framework of the Poverty Alleviation Programme. Assessment and application of the hydro potential of the Alazani River;

 

 

158

Establishment of plantation forests (fast-growing tree species, having high thermal capacity and soil rehabilitation properties) at the degraded lands where the simple restoration measures are already insufficient;

Fertilizing the unusable arable lands and pastures’ soils by traditional methods (gypsum, irrigation). Provision of farmers with modern technologies for land cultivation and management.

Mobilisation of farmers and village communities. Initially farmers’ communities could be mobilised through such pilot projects as the establishment of energy forests (groves), rehabilitation of central wind-breakers (60 m width), pasture management, improvement of legislative basis, etc.

Creation of a climate change monitoring system. Along with climatic elements, continuous observations must be carried out on soil, flora, and fauna. For this reason a protected area has been selected, which is free from anthropogenic impact. Changes observed on the territories of protected areas could be easily linked with climate change;

Long-term measures

Restoration of central wind-breakers (60 m width) and branches (10 m width). Cost-effective restoration of irrigation systems considering only the utmost need for

irrigation. Rehabilitation of central irrigation canals in the framework of a Regional Infrastructure Development Programme. Rehabilitation of village irrigation canals (mobilisation of local populations) mobilising Poverty Alleviation, and other programmes.

Cli

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The

obje

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sh

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st

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is

the

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•

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impl

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Os;

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of

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com

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(Pub

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ene

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and

lo

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loca

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in

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the

rene

wab

le sh

are

in e

nerg

y su

pply

.

• Lo

cal G

over

nmen

ts;

• Lo

cal p

rivat

e se

ctor

•

NG

Os.

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

pro

vidi

ng b

iom

ass a

s ene

rgy

reso

urce

est

ablis

hed;

•

Priv

ate

sect

or p

artic

ipat

ion

in in

crea

sing

the

shar

e of

rene

wab

le re

sour

ces s

treng

then

ed.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

erm

any

5.Es

tabl

ishm

ent o

f pla

ntat

ion

fore

sts

esta

tes u

sing

the

aban

done

d, e

rode

d la

nds (

see

prop

osal

s for

40

ha p

lant

atio

n bi

o-en

ergy

fore

st)

• Lo

cal G

over

nmen

t and

lo

cal f

arm

ers (

priv

ate

sect

or).

• Id

entif

icat

ion

of a

band

oned

terr

itorie

s with

er

oded

land

s whi

ch c

ould

be

allo

cate

d fo

r es

tate

s;

• Fe

rtiliz

atio

n an

d pr

epar

atio

n of

land

for

pl

anta

tion

of fo

rest

s;

• Lo

cal G

over

nmen

t; •

Min

istry

of A

gric

ultu

re

• M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t (U

NFC

CC

, UN

CC

D);

• B

io-f

ores

ts e

stab

lishe

d;

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

invo

lvem

ent i

n de

velo

pmen

t of

bio

mas

s ene

rgy

ensu

red;

•

Erod

ed la

nds r

ehab

ilita

ted;

•

Popu

latio

n su

pplie

d by

rene

wab

le (c

arbo

n

GTZ

, G

over

nmen

t of

Ger

man

y.

GEF

, U

NFC

CC

• Se

lect

ion

of tr

ee sp

ecie

s with

hig

h th

erm

al a

nd

CO

2

• Pl

anta

tion

of e

nerg

y fo

rest

s;

abs

orpt

ion

capa

citie

s. La

nd re

habi

litat

ion

capa

city

and

dro

ught

(dry

wea

ther

) res

ista

nce

are

requ

irem

ents

to th

e pl

ant;

• M

obili

satio

n of

loca

l far

mer

s and

settl

emen

ts;

• Su

pply

of l

ocal

pop

ulat

ion

by fu

el w

ood.

• Fo

rest

Dep

artm

ent;

• D

epar

tmen

t of l

and

use;

•

Dep

artm

ent o

f pr

otec

ted

terr

itorie

s;

• N

GO

.

neut

ral)

ener

gy re

sour

ce;

• W

ind-

brea

kers

and

pre

serv

ed a

reas

pr

otec

ted

from

ille

gal l

oggi

ng;

• So

cio-

econ

omic

con

ditio

n of

loca

l po

pula

tion

impr

oved

; •

CO

2

adap

tatio

n fu

nd.

abs

orpt

ion

incr

ease

d.

CD

M

6.R

ehab

ilita

tion

of w

ind-

brea

kers

(see

pr

opos

al fo

r reh

abili

tatio

n of

906

ha

60

m w

idth

and

865

ha

10 m

wid

th w

ind-

brea

kers

)

• Lo

cal f

arm

ers a

nd

Dep

artm

ent o

f pro

tect

ed

area

s.

• G

radu

al re

habi

litat

ion

of w

ind-

brea

kers

. •

Dep

artm

ent o

f pr

otec

ted

area

s;

• Lo

cal G

over

nmen

t.

• Pr

oduc

tivity

of a

gric

ultu

ral l

ands

and

pa

stur

es in

crea

sed;

•

Cor

ridor

s for

pro

tect

ed a

reas

faun

a ne

twor

k es

tabl

ishe

d;

• So

cio-

econ

omic

con

ditio

ns o

f loc

al fa

rmer

s is

impr

oved

; •

CO

2 ab

sorp

tion

is in

crea

sed.

GTZ

, G

over

nmen

t of

Ger

man

y.

GEF

, U

NFC

CC

ad

apta

tion

fund

. C

DM

7.

Reh

abili

tatio

n of

irrig

atio

n sy

stem

s (s

ee p

ropo

sals

on

irrig

atio

n)

• Lo

cal f

arm

ers;

•

Popu

latio

n of

vill

ages

. •

Iden

tific

atio

n of

irrig

atio

n sy

stem

s for

urg

ent

reha

bilit

atio

n w

ith m

inim

um e

xpen

ses (

3 si

tes)

; •

Prep

arat

ion

of p

roje

cts f

or re

habi

litat

ion

of

irrig

atio

n sy

stem

s and

thei

r im

plem

enta

tion;

•

Supp

lyin

g lo

cal f

arm

ers a

nd se

ttlem

ents

(nea

r th

e se

lect

ed si

tes)

with

irrig

atio

n w

ater

.

• D

epar

tmen

t of

irrig

atio

n.

• Se

lect

ed ir

rigat

ion

syst

ems r

ehab

ilita

ted;

•

Loca

l far

mer

s and

hou

seho

lds p

rovi

ded

with

irrig

atio

n w

ater

; •

Prod

uctiv

ity o

f agr

icul

tura

l lan

ds a

nd

past

ures

incr

ease

d;

• So

cio-

econ

omic

con

ditio

ns o

f the

ho

useh

olds

and

farm

ers i

mpr

oved

; •

Bill

ing

syst

em in

irrig

atio

n se

ctor

es

tabl

ishe

d.

GTZ

, G

over

nmen

t of

Ger

man

y.

GEF

, U

NFC

CC

ad

apta

tion

fund

8. P

repa

ratio

n of

pac

kage

of c

ultiv

atio

n m

easu

res f

or a

gric

ultu

ral l

ands

and

pa

stur

es. R

ecom

men

datio

ns o

n dr

ough

t-re

sist

ant p

lant

s and

pro

per l

and

man

agem

ent.

• Lo

cal f

arm

ers;

•

Loc

al p

opul

atio

n.

• Id

entif

icat

ion

of d

roug

ht-r

esis

tant

agr

icul

tura

l pl

ants

; •

Test

ing

the

adap

tive

capa

citie

s of s

elec

ted

plan

ts to

the

loca

l clim

ate

thro

ugh

the

pilo

t si

tes;

•

Esta

blis

hmen

t of l

ocal

com

mun

ities

pro

mot

ing

the

new

sele

cted

pla

nts (

whe

at, g

rass

); •

Prep

arat

ion

of p

acka

ge o

f cul

tivat

ion

mea

sure

s.

• D

iffer

ent s

cien

tific

-re

sear

ch in

stitu

tes;

•

NG

Os w

orki

ng in

ag

ricul

ture

sect

or;

• M

inis

try o

f A

gric

ultu

re.

• N

ew ty

pes o

f pla

nts a

dapt

ed to

the

loca

l co

nditi

ons r

ecom

men

ded;

•

Aw

aren

ess o

f loc

al fa

rmer

s and

vill

ager

s on

ongo

ing

proc

esse

s and

way

s to

adap

t to

the

new

situ

atio

n ra

ised

; •

Rec

omm

ende

d pa

ckag

e of

agr

icul

tura

l lan

d re

habi

litat

ion

and

mai

nten

ance

mea

sure

s im

plem

ente

d an

d pe

rman

ently

upd

ated

.

GEF

, U

NFC

CC

ad

apta

tion

fund

9.B

ioga

s M

obili

satio

n of

farm

ers e

ngag

ed in

live

-st

ock

rais

ing

and

thei

r inv

olve

men

t in

biog

as d

evel

opm

ent p

rogr

amm

es

• Fa

rmer

s eng

aged

in

stoc

k-ra

isin

g se

ctor

. •

Surv

ey o

f bio

gas r

esou

rces

; •

Ris

ing

awar

enes

s of f

arm

ers;

•

Inst

alla

tion

of b

ioga

s pro

duct

ion

pilo

t uni

ts.

• B

ioga

s pro

duci

ng

orga

nisa

tion

(on

the

tend

er b

asis

).

• Fa

rmer

s eng

aged

in li

ve-s

tock

rais

ing

invo

lved

in b

ioga

s dev

elop

men

t pr

ogra

mm

es).

GEF

, U

ND

P an

d lo

cal f

arm

ers

Long

-term

stra

tegy

•

Loca

l adm

inis

tratio

n;

• Lo

cal f

arm

ers;

•

Popu

latio

n of

DTR

.

In th

e lo

ng-te

rm st

rate

gy th

e em

phas

is sh

ould

be

mad

e on

the

reha

bilit

atio

n of

deg

rade

d pa

stur

es a

nd

agric

ultu

ral l

ends

and

impl

emen

tatio

n of

pro

per

land

man

agem

ent s

trate

gy, a

s wel

l as o

n th

e se

lect

ion

of d

roug

ht-r

esis

tant

kin

ds in

agr

icul

ture

an

d fo

rest

ry se

ctor

s

• M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

.

St

ate

budg

et,

Nat

iona

l C

omm

unic

atio

ns, o

ther

pr

ogra

mm

e

 

 

161

Adaptation proposals (A-4) - Rehabilitation of wind-breakers in Dedoplistskaro region Project objective: The objective of the project is to mitigate the climate change impacts of drought and land degradation (erosion) processes in the DTR by the rehabilitation of wind shelter belts. The goal of the project is to provide sustainable development of the leading sector of the economy – agriculture – thus promoting higher living standards in the region. Project participants: Local government, local farmers, population of villages. Problem: Analysis of existing information about the region and consultations with local stakeholders have shown that the most vulnerable ecosystem in the region is land and, consequently, the economic sector depending on land-use: agriculture. The DTR is rich in fertile land, but has scant atmospheric precipitation. Against a background of high summer temperatures and frequent strong winds, this causes high recurrence of drought, causing land erosion and desertification processes. To combat these processes, in the second half of the 20th century a system of wind-breakers was arranged in the region, covering about 1,800 ha of the territory. The existence of these wind-breakers was vitally important not only for the preservation of farm lands and pastures, but also for retaining the fauna of protected areas. The energy crisis in the 1990s led to virtually complete logging of wind-breakers, exacerbating the adverse impact on the land of the above-mentioned processes. The situation is being aggravated by current changes in climate resulting in a rise in temperature and the frequency of high winds and drought, as well as by the disintegration of irrigation systems in the region. At present the area of degraded lands in the DTR makes more than 25,300 ha and 20,000 ha of these are wind-eroded. Soil degradation is causing a marked decrease in the productivity of the main crops and animal husbandry, thus causing a fall in the living standard of the local population. Activities to be implemented: Activities planned under the submitted proposal are:

Identification of the wind-breaker areas needing rehabilitation, which could significantly contribute to the mitigation of climate change impacts;

Rehabilitation of selected (pilot) wind-breaker areas, deteriorated as a result of the energy crisis;

Mobilisation of local farmers for project implementation, and further steps to protect the rehabilitated wind-breakers.

Project should be implemented step-by-step. The final goal is to rehabilitate 906 (60 m width) ha and 865 (10 m width) ha of wind-breakers on the territories previously covered by wind-breakers. Project cost: The total cost for the rehabilitation of 60 m wide belts including three years maintenance expenses is USD 12.6 million, and of 10 m wide belts USD 11.5 million, making USD 24.1 million in total. Project emissions: Emission reduction (sequestration) calculated in case of planting the same type of tree (acacia) as previously planted equals to 278 tonnes of CO2 annually per hectare.

 

 

162

(A-5) - Plantation of 40 ha of energy forest in order to rehabilitate the eroded farm-lands Project objective: The objective of the project is to mitigate the climate change impacts of drought and desertification processes on the DTR. The goal of the project is to rehabilitate eroded and degraded lands as well as to improve the supply of local settlements with firewood, thus preventing illegal cutting of trees forming the wind-breakers. Project participants: Local government and local farmers. Problem: Analysis of existing information about the region and consultations with local stakeholders has indicated that soil degradation is one of the most acute problems of the DTR. Assessments of vulnerability have revealed that the region faces significant climate change impacts along with anthropogenic pressures from local farmers and the indigenous population. Ongoing climate change has already resulted in an increase in annual air temperature by 0.60C, and an almost doubling of the recurrence and duration of drought in the region, as well as in the frequency of high winds. The main negative anthropogenic factors identified during the assessment, and having the heaviest impact on the land degradation process, are the following:

a. An energy crisis occurred in Georgia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, which resulted in a cutting down of wind-breaker forests artificially planted in the 1960s in order to protect the adjacent agricultural lands and pastures from strong winds, periodically reaching 30-40 m/s

b. Improper management of agricultural lands, using outdated technology of soil cultivation, misuse of fertilizers, disregard for crop rotation, etc.

c. Destruction of irrigation systems (the high price and shortage of electricity necessary for water pumping)

d. Uncontrolled grazing of sheep. At present the area of degraded lands in the DTR makes more than 25,300 ha and 20,000 ha of these are wind eroded. The content of humus in arable land has almost halved here over the past half-century, bringing a marked fall in the productivity of the main crops. The planting of 40 ha forest at the territory affected by the above-mentioned processes will contribute to the improvement of the local environmental situation through the following ways:

Prevention of further erosion of adjacent agricultural soils (including pastures) Rehabilitating degraded soils and increasing their productivity in the territory of the

estate farms; Improvement of the fertility of soil through the accumulation of leaves and bough humus

in the land of the estate farms; Mitigation of GHGs (absorption of CO2) Reduction of anthropogenic impact on wind–breaker forests which are in addition used as

corridors by fauna in the protected territories. Enabling recreation capacities.

 

 

163

This proposed project will change the living conditions of the local communities for the better as well:

Supplying the local population with firewood, which is currently the only widely used energy source;

Facilitating the local private sector to participate in the bioenergy production process; Alleviating poverty through selling produced firewood on the market; Improving housekeeping conditions as a result of ensuring the provision of cheaper

energy resource; Mobilising local communities for project implementation and creating new jobs.

Activities to be implemented:

Planting and operation of a forest farm of 40 ha as a pilot phase (in total 200 ha of lands are degraded and unusable nearby which could be afforested in case of successful implementation of the project) consisting of fast growing wood species resistant to drought in order to: a) partly satisfy the demand of local communities for firewood, usually produced from natural forests; b) fertilize and rehabilitate the unusable lands in the valley of “Taribana”; and c) ensure the additional volumes of CO2 sequestration.

Mobilisation of local farmers for project implementation Introduce the energy forest management technology.

Project cost: Project initial cost for the first 8 years equals USD 128,249. Annual maintenance expenses amount to USD 21,000, thus making total cost of planting 40 ha of energy forest and its 8-year maintenance equal to USD 296.2. However, the harvesting and commercialisation of firewood will provide definite income as well. Project emissions: Estimations of absorption rates by poplar (potential specie for plantation), using data obtained in Russia and Azerbaijan, have indicated that average annual sequestration of CO2 in this project is 1,866 tonnes. Three following proposals are for rehabilitation of different segments of the large irrigation system constructed during Soviet time when electricity was subsidies by the government. Main barrier for all of them is high cost of power utilized by pumping stations which makes inefficient land irrigation. Moreover, that consumers of this water are low income local population and eco-migrants. (A-6) - Irrigation of pastures from the Dali Reservoir Project objective: The objective of the project is to reduce the vulnerability of pastures to climate-change induced hazards in the most arid zone in Georgia, by providing irrigation from the nearby Dali Reservoir. The goal of the project is to demonstrate sustainable management of livestock husbandry and pasters in the DTR, affected by the worsening impacts of drought under current global warming. Project participants: Local farmers, “Alazani M” Ltd. Problem: The Dali Reservoir is situated in the most arid zone of Georgia. Precipitation here is less than in other parts of the DTR. It would be possible now to store 70 million m3 of water in

 

 

164

the reservoir if the escape tower were to be rehabilitated. In the first stage of this pilot project the watering of 170 ha in the nearby to reservoir pastures is planed using the existing tunnels. In the second stage, construction of new irrigation network is envisaged. This stock of water could be used to irrigate an area of more than 10,000 ha. This territory nowadays represents winter pastures where almost all livestock farms of the Kakheti region hibernate. Hence, the Dali Reservoir is to play an important part in the provision of stock-raising development here. The livestock hibernate in winter pastures from September until May. In September the herds of livestock return from the summer pastures to the rangelands that have been burnt down and faded by heat and drought. The watering of these areas is very important for farmers, as they could then avoid the loss of sheep caused by the absence of foraging reserves in this period of time. Activities to be implemented: In the first stage, to provide 170 ha of pasture by irrigation water from the Dali Reservoir via existing tunnels, it is planed to repair the operational water escape tower. Project cost: The total cost of the project is USD 124.242. (A-7). Rehabilitation of Zilicha I Pumping Station Project objective: The objective of the project is to reduce the vulnerability to climate change of more than 5,200 ha of irrigated arable land in the easternmost part of the DTR, suffering from drought and threat of desertification. The goal of the project is to rehabilitate one of the pump-stations to provide the existing irrigation system with water. Project participants: Local farmers, “Alazani M” Ltd. Problem: The Zilicha I irrigation system was serving 5,221 ha of irrigated area but is not in operation now. Ziliha I elevating pump-station was mounted over three floating pontoons on the Alazani River. Two out of three pontoons are submerged and only one is operational consequently very limited amount of water is being supplied to the vineyards. Villages served by this irrigation system deserve special attention because they are located in the border area of the country and households are eco-migrants from the high mountain areas of Adjara, which were resettled here after natural disasters happened there in the 1980s. In the absence of water for irrigation, there would be no vineyards here, and consequently the villages could become unpopulated. Hence, the provision of these villages with water has not only economic, but political importance as well. Activities to be implemented: For the rehabilitation of the irrigation system it is necessary to repair the 3,200/75 type pump at Zilicha-1 pumping station, replace back bids at the pipes with new ones, rehabilitate separate water-gates and sections of pipelines, to clean the main canal from sediment, etc.. Project cost: The total cost of these works equals USD 35,800, 30% of which make up the canal cleaning expenses (A-8). Watering 900 ha of Taribana arable land Project objective: The objective of the project is to reduce the vulnerability of the Taribana arable land tracts in Dedoplistskaro to climate-change induced hazards. The goal of the project is

 

 

165

to provide water to 900 ha of Taribana cropland, thus promoting the sustainable harvest of major crops cultivated in the region and enabling the local population to improve living conditions. Project participants: Local farmers, “Alazani M” Ltd. Problem: The Taribana irrigation system was served by the pumping station mounted at the Alazani River. At present this station is disabled and out of action. According to experts’ judgement the rehabilitation of this pump-station at this stage is not expedient because the difference in altitudes between the station and the main water-taking tank exceeds 100 m, which makes the use of electricity by the system economically unjustified. From this tank the pipeline supplied two reservoirs: the “Kushis-khevi” and the “Kranchis-khevi” reservoirs. These two reservoirs are being partially filled by atmospheric precipitation and a flow in a small ravine that makes it possible to irrigate a part of Taribana arable lands by self-flow. The catchments area of both reservoirs equals about 90 km2. The average annual run-off makes 1.2 million m3. After the implementation of rehabilitation works, it would be possible to utilise for irrigation about 1.0 million m3 of water, by regulating flow emerging from atmospheric precipitation and the water running in the ravine. This will enable a one-time occasional irrigation of 900 ha of arable land in summer. Hence, this measure could make available new lands to cultivate cereals (wheat, maize, sunflower). Activities to be implemented: The Taribana irrigation system rehabilitation activities include the repair of high-pressure pipeline coming out of the “Kushis-Khevi” reservoir and other pipelines, as well as repairing values, or replacing them with new ones. Project cost: The overall cost of the project equals to 44,242. USD 4.2.3. The Lentekhi region Lentekhi region adaptation strategy. In selecting the most vulnerable regions to climate change on the territory of Georgia, attention has been focused on the Lentekhi region in view of the fact that it is typical of a mountain zone of West Georgia with its climate and landscape features. The economically-active population still remains there, though due to recent disastrous events and consequent worsening of socio-economic conditions it experiences tangible migration. Therefore, this region could be regarded as an indicator of the impact of climate-change driven processes on natural ecosystems and the economy. At the same time, the existence of population and some sectors of economy make it possible to plan and implement in the region a number of adaptation measures, which could serve as an example for implementing the same activities in Georgia’s other mountain regions. Like other mountain regions in Georgia, such hazardous events as floods caused by heavy precipitation, landslides, mud streams and snow avalanches are quite present in the Lentekhi region. These processes in turn cause land erosion, demonstrated in the erosion of river banks, loss of arable land, and destruction of forests. Over the last two decades, climate change has markedly increased the frequency and intensity of these processes causing the speeding up of migration processes among the local population. In 1987 almost 15,000 people lived in Kvemo Svaneti. Owing to the abundant snowfalls and destructive floods at the end of the 1980s about 3,000 residents were evacuated from the region, followed by a second wave of migration after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. As a result, the population of the Lentekhi region has declined to just less than 9,000 in 2007.

 

 

166

The deteriorating demographic situation created in the region is directly linked with the economic slowdown. In the leading sector of region’s economy – agriculture – disastrous events since 1990 have caused the loss of arable land area from 2,200 to 1,500 ha, the area under perennials from 380 to 130 ha, the decrease of hayfields territory by 1,300 ha, and that of pastures by 6,000 ha. Significantly the number of domestic animals fell as well. However, it should be mentioned that the privatisation reforms carried out in recent years in agriculture have led to the evident increase in the yield of major crops and in livestock productivity. In particular, compared to the 1960s the harvest of maize in the 2000s has grown by in the region of 30%, that of potato by 60%, and of fruits by 66%. The same pattern takes place in animal husbandry –productivity has risen on average by 45%, mainly due to better care conditions for privatised cattle. All the aforesaid indicates that despite climate-change driven disastrous events, the Lentekhi region would, if suitable conditions were created, have sufficient capacity to develop the key sector of its economy – agriculture. For the creation of these conditions, the elaboration of an adaptation to climate change strategy is required, which should be based upon existing data and anticipated changes in climate, and on analysis and assessment of the region’s natural ecosystems and agriculture. Adaptation measures should be aimed at the mitigation of disastrous event impacts, measures to forecast and prevent them that will finally ensure the development of agriculture, the improvement in livelihoods and the stabilisation of the demographic situation in the region. Along with agriculture, the development of other sectors of the economy – tourism, manufacturing of farm produce and wood processing, etc. is to be envisaged. Proper restructuring of the region’s economy would widen its development possibilities even more. Anticipated risks. The expected risks caused by climate change in the Lentekhi region can be summarised as follows:

The changes in climate, described above in detail, will intensify land erosion. First, this process will be provoked by the growth in precipitation, and afterwards by the increase in the duration of drought, the trends towards which is being already observed. According to the forecast, in the second half of the current century, against a background of rising temperature and declining precipitation a decrease in air relative humidity by 6% and in the value of hydrothermal coefficient by about 30% is anticipated, that will cause a fall in soil moisture content;

In the first half of this century an increase in precipitation and floods is expected, after which the process could reverse;

The growth in the pest population both in crops and in forests is anticipated. These processes are being already observed;

The abandonment of settlements by the population resulting from the high risk of landslide activity, causing in turn a rise in unemployment and in poverty;

The migration of population (rise in the number of eco-migrants); Further decline in the quality of forests; The tangible increase in air temperature and the decrease in the moistening index are

expected to bring about the transformation of climate zones in the region, expressed by the setting in the lower zone of the temperature regime, typical at present for the Black Sea coastal area, and the disappearance of glaciers in the highest zone.

Cli

mat

e ch

ange

ad

apta

tion

str

ateg

y fo

r K

vem

o S

van

eti (

mou

nta

inou

s) r

egio

n

Key

Str

ateg

ic O

bjec

tive

K

ey T

arge

t G

roup

s A

ctiv

ity

Pot

enti

al L

ead

Age

ncy

Out

put

Pot

enti

al D

onor

s Sh

ort-t

erm

obj

ectiv

es (2

009-

2025

) •

Loca

l gov

ernm

ent;

• Po

pula

tion

of t

he

regi

on.

The

obje

ctiv

e of

the

shor

t-ter

m st

rate

gy

is th

e cr

eatio

n of

land

slid

e m

onito

ring

syst

em a

nd p

repa

ratio

n of

pre

vent

ive

mea

sure

s for

the

resi

dent

s in

land

slid

e-en

dang

ered

zon

es. I

mpr

ovem

ent o

f fo

rest

man

agem

ent

• M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

; •

Loca

l gov

ernm

ent;

• R

ural

com

mun

ities

.

G

over

nmen

t of G

eorg

ia

Inte

rnat

iona

l don

ors

1. C

reat

ion

in th

e re

gion

of

perm

anen

t lan

dslid

e m

onito

ring

and

early

war

ning

serv

ice

(opt

imum

ver

sion

)

Lo

cal g

over

nmen

t;

Loca

l pop

ulat

ion.

Car

ryin

g ou

t of m

onito

ring

in th

e la

ndsl

ide

enda

nger

ed te

rrito

ries;

Rec

omm

enda

tions

of t

he la

ndsl

ide

prev

entio

n m

easu

res.

Lo

cal g

over

nmen

t;

Nat

iona

l env

ironm

ent

agen

cy.

Pr

epar

atio

n of

ann

ual r

epor

ts o

n th

e st

atus

of

land

slid

e da

nger

ous

area

s af

fect

ed b

y cl

imat

e ch

ange

.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

Lo

cal g

over

nmen

t

2. M

obili

satio

n of

rura

l co

mm

uniti

es a

nd th

eir

invo

lvem

ent i

n th

e im

plem

enta

tion

of p

reve

ntiv

e m

easu

res a

t the

land

slid

e da

nger

ous p

lots

Lo

cal g

over

nmen

t at

regi

on a

nd v

illag

e le

vel;

Po

pula

tion

of

exce

ptio

nally

vu

lner

able

vill

ages

.

Pr

epar

atio

n of

reco

mm

enda

tions

for

the

popu

latio

n liv

ing

in la

ndsl

ide

enda

nger

ed z

ones

;

Org

anis

ing

perm

anen

t war

ning

tra

inin

gs o

n pr

even

tive

mea

sure

s for

th

e fa

mili

es li

ving

in la

ndsl

ide

enda

nger

ed z

ones

;

Form

atio

n of

loca

l com

mun

ities

.

Lo

cal s

ervi

ce o

n la

ndsl

ide

mon

itorin

g;

Lo

cal N

GO

s.

• V

illag

e co

mm

uniti

es f

orm

ed p

rimar

ily in

the

mos

t vul

nera

ble

settl

emen

ts;

• Fo

r eac

h fa

mily

in th

e la

ndsl

ide

affe

cted

zo

nes t

he p

acka

ge o

f pre

vent

ive

mea

sure

s pr

epar

ed;

• Po

pula

tion

in la

ndsl

ide

affe

cted

zon

es

perm

anen

tly in

form

ed a

bout

the

exis

ting

stat

us a

nd o

n th

e ne

cess

ity to

car

ry o

ut

prev

entiv

e m

easu

res.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

Lo

cal g

over

nmen

t

3. Im

plem

enta

tion

of th

e pi

lot

proj

ect o

n th

e la

ndsl

ide

prev

entio

n m

easu

res (

smal

l pl

anta

tions

of h

azel

nut)

Po

pula

tion

livin

g in

la

ndsl

ide

affe

cted

zo

nes;

Loca

l adm

inis

tratio

n

Min

istry

of

Envi

ronm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al R

esou

rces

.

Pl

antin

g of

haz

elnu

t at p

revi

ousl

y se

lect

ed p

lots

;

Car

ryin

g ou

t of p

erm

anen

t m

onito

ring;

Stud

y of

the

poss

ibili

ty to

subm

it th

is

pilo

t pro

ject

s to

the

CD

M.

M

inis

try o

f Env

ironm

ent

Prot

ectio

n an

d N

atur

al

Res

ourc

es;

Lo

cal g

over

nmen

t.

• Pl

ots o

f lan

d fo

r haz

elnu

t pla

ntat

ions

sele

cted

; •

Pilo

t pro

ject

pre

pare

d to

be

subm

itted

to th

e C

DM

.

Ita

lian

inve

stor

s Fer

rero

in

the

fram

ewor

k of

C

DM

, Ada

ptat

ion

fund

s

4. C

arry

ing

out o

f reh

abili

tatio

n an

d pr

oper

man

agem

ent o

f mos

t da

mag

ed p

arts

of f

ores

ts

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion;

Loca

l pop

ulat

ion;

Dep

artm

ent o

f Fo

rest

ry;

N

GO

s.

Se

lect

ion

of m

ost d

amag

ed a

reas

in

loca

l for

ests

;

Prep

arat

ion

of t

he st

rate

gy fo

r the

re

habi

litat

ion

of d

amag

ed a

reas

in

fore

sts a

nd p

rope

r man

agem

ent a

s w

ell a

s pilo

t pro

ject

s;

A

ttrac

tion

of lo

cal a

nd fo

reig

n in

vest

men

ts to

impl

emen

t pilo

t

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion;

Min

istry

of E

nviro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

(D

epar

tmen

t of F

ores

try).

Pe

rman

ent m

onito

ring

unde

rtake

n on

the

fore

st q

ualit

y, e

spec

ially

in th

e da

mag

ed

area

s;

Pa

ckag

e of

mea

sure

s pre

pare

d to

be

impl

emen

ted

for t

he re

stor

atio

n of

fore

st

qual

ity a

nd im

prov

emen

t of t

he m

anag

emen

t;

Fore

stry

pro

ject

s pre

pare

d to

be

subm

itted

to

the

CD

M.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

In

tern

atio

nal d

onor

s, C

DM

, Ada

ptat

ion

fund

s

proj

ects

on

the

tech

nica

l ass

ista

nce;

Car

ryin

g ou

t of p

erm

anen

t m

onito

ring

on th

e se

lect

ed a

reas

. 5.

Res

tora

tion

of th

e la

ndsl

ide

prev

entiv

e fu

nctio

n of

fore

st

ecos

yste

m. P

lant

ing

of n

ew p

lots

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion;

Dep

artm

ent o

f Fo

rest

ry;

M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

Res

ourc

es;

N

atio

nal

Envi

ronm

ent A

genc

y.

Se

lect

ion

of fo

rest

plo

ts h

avin

g th

e la

ndsl

ide

reta

inin

g fu

nctio

n;

Pr

epar

atio

n of

pro

ject

pro

posa

ls fo

r th

e re

stor

atio

n of

land

slid

e re

tain

ing

fore

sts;

Cre

atio

n of

mon

itorin

g sy

stem

at t

he

sele

cted

plo

ts;

Pr

ovis

ion

of lo

cal p

opul

atio

n w

ith

the

firew

ood.

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion;

Dep

artm

ent o

f For

estry

;

Min

istry

of E

nviro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

;

NG

Os.

Fo

rest

plo

ts h

avin

g sp

ecia

l lan

dslid

e re

tain

ing

func

tion

sele

cted

and

pro

ject

pro

posa

ls

prep

ared

for t

he re

stor

atio

n of

such

fore

sts;

Perm

anen

t mon

itorin

g at

the

land

slid

e re

tain

ing

plot

s org

aniz

ed;

PP

P st

ruct

ure

orga

nise

d to

supp

ly p

opul

atio

n w

ith fi

rew

ood.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

In

tern

atio

nal d

onor

s, G

EF a

nd o

ther

A

dapt

atio

n fu

nds,

CD

M

6.In

vent

ory

of c

limat

e ca

used

la

ndsl

ides

(dis

tant

from

se

ttlem

ents

but

nea

r to

the

road

s)

and

prep

arat

ion

of p

reve

ntiv

e re

com

men

datio

ns

G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

;

Dep

artm

ent o

f To

uris

m;

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion.

Pr

epar

atio

n of

a m

ap d

emon

stra

ting

the

dist

ribut

ion

of c

limat

e ca

used

la

ndsl

ide

area

s;

Pr

epar

atio

n of

reco

mm

enda

tions

for

adap

tatio

n ac

tiviti

es;

Se

tting

up

of m

onito

ring

syst

em a

t th

e vu

lner

able

sect

ions

of t

ouris

t ro

uts.

D

epar

tmen

t of T

ouris

m;

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion.

Pr

ojec

t pro

posa

ls fo

r the

reha

bilit

atio

n of

to

uris

t pat

hs p

repa

red;

Perm

anen

t mon

itorin

g on

the

vuln

erab

le

sect

ion

of to

uris

ts p

aths

org

anis

ed;

A

dapt

atio

n pr

ojec

ts im

plem

ente

d.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

A

dapt

atio

n fu

nds

7. C

reat

ion

of fl

ood

mon

itorin

g an

d ea

rly w

arni

ng sy

stem

Loca

l adm

inis

tratio

n;

N

atio

nal

Envi

ronm

enta

l A

genc

y.

Se

lect

ion

of b

est s

ites t

o ca

rry

out

flood

mon

itorin

g;

Tr

aini

ng o

f loc

al st

aff t

o ca

rry

out

this

mon

itorin

g.

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion.

Si

tes t

o m

onito

r the

floo

ds se

lect

ed;

Pe

rman

ent m

onito

ring

of fl

oods

org

anis

ed.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia, G

EF,

UN

FCC

C A

dapt

atio

n Fu

nd

8. P

repa

ratio

n of

pac

kage

of

mea

sure

s aim

ed a

t the

redu

ctio

n of

cas

ualti

es a

nd lo

sses

cau

sed

by

flood

s

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion;

Loca

l adm

inis

tratio

n;

N

atio

nal

Envi

ronm

enta

l A

genc

y;

Lo

cal c

omm

uniti

es.

Pr

epar

atio

n of

pac

kage

of p

reve

ntiv

e an

d pr

otec

tion

mea

sure

s to

redu

ce

loss

es a

t vul

nera

ble

faci

litie

s in

case

of

floo

ds;

C

arry

ing

out o

f tra

inin

gs fo

r re

side

nts o

f flo

od-e

ndan

gere

d zo

nes

and

loca

l aut

horit

ies,

at w

hich

the

pack

age

of re

com

men

datio

ns w

ill b

e di

scus

sed.

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion;

Loca

l com

mun

ities

.

Floo

d co

nseq

uenc

es a

nd lo

sses

redu

ced.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

, G

EF, U

NFC

CC

A

dapt

atio

n fu

nd

9. R

ecom

men

datio

n of

mea

sure

s fo

r mon

itorin

g an

d re

habi

litat

ion

(mai

nten

ance

) of v

ulne

rabl

e to

uris

t

D

epar

tmen

t of

Tour

ism

s;

D

epar

tmen

t of

Roa

ds;

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion.

Se

lect

ion

of to

uris

t rou

tes w

hich

are

vu

lner

able

to c

limat

e ch

ange

;

Cre

atio

n of

per

man

ent m

onito

ring

syst

em a

t the

sele

cted

vul

nera

ble

sect

ions

;

Prep

arat

ion

of a

dapt

atio

n m

easu

res

for t

hese

sect

ions

.

D

epar

tmen

t of R

oads

;

Loca

l adm

inis

tratio

n.

Pe

rman

ent m

onito

ring

on v

ulne

rabl

e se

ctio

ns

of to

uris

t rou

ts o

rgan

ised

;

Ada

ptat

ion

(pre

vent

ive)

mea

sure

s for

thes

e se

ctio

ns p

repa

red.

G

over

nmen

t of G

eorg

ia,

Inte

rnat

iona

l don

ors,

Ada

ptat

ion

fund

s

10

. Pre

para

tion

of p

reve

ntiv

e m

easu

res p

acka

ge to

pro

tect

loca

l fo

rest

s fro

m th

e in

trusi

on o

f pes

ts

In

stitu

te o

f For

estry

;

Res

earc

h in

stitu

tes;

Dep

artm

ent o

f Fo

rest

ry;

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion.

Se

lect

ion

of fo

rest

are

as d

amag

ed b

y pe

sts;

Prep

arat

ion

of p

acka

ge o

f mea

sure

s to

reha

bilit

ate

the

dam

aged

plo

ts;

Pr

epar

atio

n of

pre

vent

ive

mea

sure

s pa

ckag

e to

pro

tect

new

plo

ts;

Im

plem

enta

tion

of re

habi

litat

ion

mea

sure

s at t

he d

amag

ed p

lots

.

Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion;

Fo

rest

are

as d

amag

ed b

y pe

sts

reha

bilit

ated

;

Prev

entiv

e m

easu

res a

gain

st p

ests

car

ried

out p

erm

anen

tly.

Loca

l bud

get,

Inte

rnat

iona

l don

ors,

Ada

ptat

ion

fund

s

11. G

radu

al in

clus

ion

into

the

biog

as p

rogr

amm

es o

f fam

ilies

ha

ving

larg

e nu

mbe

r of c

attle

(20-

30 h

eads

)

Fa

rmer

s eng

aged

in

tour

ism

and

cat

tle-

rais

ing.

St

udy

of b

ioga

s res

ourc

es;

A

war

enes

s rai

sing

am

ong

farm

ers;

Inst

alla

tion

of b

ioga

s gen

erat

ors.

B

ioga

s pro

duci

ng

orga

nisa

tion

(on

a te

nder

ba

sis.)

.

In

volv

emen

t of f

arm

ers (

invo

lved

in to

uris

m

and

cattl

e-br

eadi

ng b

usin

ess)

a i

n bi

ogas

pr

ogra

mm

es.

GEF

, UN

DP,

loca

l fa

rmer

s

Long

-term

stra

tegy

(afte

r 202

5)

Lo

cal

adm

inis

tratio

n;

Po

pula

tion

of

Lent

ekhi

regi

on;

M

inis

try o

f ag

ricul

ture

;

Res

earc

h in

stitu

tions

rela

ted

to a

gric

ultu

re

sect

or.

Pr

epar

atio

n of

ada

ptat

ion

mea

sure

s in

cas

e of

the

clim

ate

zone

s tra

nsfo

rmat

ion;

Stud

y of

snow

ava

lanc

he h

azar

ds

incr

ease

due

to c

limat

e ch

ange

(b

oth

regi

ons o

f Sva

neti)

;

Stud

y of

his

toric

al m

onum

ents

vu

lner

abili

ty to

clim

ate

chan

ge

(bot

h re

gion

s of S

vane

ti).

Lo

cal A

dmin

istra

tion;

MO

E.

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

, Lo

cal a

dmin

istra

tion,

In

tern

atio

nal d

onor

s

 

 

170

Adaptation measures (A-9) - Planting of hazelnut in the Lentekhi region Project objective: The objective of the project is to reduce the vulnerability of the Lentekhi region to landslides, being significantly activated under current climate change in the region. The goal of the project is to plant hazelnut, which has a sturdy root system, at landslide-endangered slopes to combat further erosion of land in the region, which at present greatly damages cropland and forests, roads and other communications, promoting the worsening of living conditions of the local population and causing migration processes. Project participants: Local population Problem: Land degradation is one of the most acute problems in the Lentekhi region. Its impact is significant not only on agriculture, but on forestry, transportation, the public sector and the demographic situation as well. For the last two decades the population of the region has decreased by 40%. The disastrous events enhanced by climate change (heavy showers, abundant snowfalls, floods and drought) have become more frequent in the region, causing the intensification of erosion processes. The agriculture sector of the region has suffered great losses. The area of arable land has decreased from 2,200 ha (1990) to 1,500 ha (2007). Along with natural causes, the main anthropogenic factors affecting land degradation processes are: After the disintegration of the Soviet Union the decentralised management system has

provoked the non-systematic exploitation of natural resources, including forests and alpine hayfields and pastures.

The implementation of centralised measures aimed at the protection of forests and soil has been stopped. This has led to land degradation - the intensity of erosion processes at the logged and stripped plots has increased.

The cultivation of maize, potato and other plants on slopes has enhanced the erosion of arable land as well.

To combat the land degradation processes provoked by the above-mentioned processes the piloting of hazelnut plantations is regarded as a highly efficient measure, serving two objectives: increasing the stability of landslide-endangered slopes and promoting income generation for the local low income population as a result of selling the hazelnut harvest. Activities to be implemented: The activities in the pilot phase of the project include planting of of hazelnut initially on an area of 50 ha, its introduction into the operation stage, harvesting and realization. If the pilot project is successful it could be possible to rehabilitate some hundreds of hectares of degraded and abandoned land which became useless under the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activity. Project cost: The total cost of the project is USD 281,700., Project emissions: According to the tentative estimations the annual absorption of CO2 from its pilot area (50 ha) would reach 950 tonnes, after the entering of the project into operation,.

 

 

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Glaciers Considering the fact that the degrading glaciers of Central Caucasus are causing serious hazards for the adjacent regions, along with the above project proposals, one proposal has been developed in the framework of catastrophic events associated with this process. (A-10) - Mitigation of disastrous glacial phenomena in the Dariali Gorge Project objective: The objective of the project is to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on the main highway passing through the Stephantsminda region, which connects Georgia and Russia, and on the main pipeline between Russia, Georgia and Armenia. The goal of the project is to elaborate proper adaptation measures which will provide a reduction to the minimum of losses caused by glaciers to the highway and the pipeline, having great economic and political importance. Project participants: Government of Georgia, local administration Problem: Four glaciers in the Tergi/Terek River Gorge (Chachi, Devdoraki, Abano and Gergeti, correspondingly 3.2, 6.5, 2.5 and 8.5 km long) are causing periodic disastrous events in the Dariali Gorge, during which the river gorge becomes blocked at the length of 8-12 km. The volume of debris carried out reaches 14-16 million m3 with a depth of 80-100 m. The flooding originated after the bursting of a blocked up section affected large areas of lower territory, inflicting heavy losses to settlements, flooding arable land, destroying roads, bridges and other communications. In the past 100 years, such disasters have occurred at the Devdoraki Glacier in 1953, 1968 and 2007, at the Abano Glacier in 1909 and 1910, and at the Gergeti Glacier in 1953. The losses related to the single disaster causing the interruption in the functioning of the highway and the gas pipeline reach USD 23-25 million. The cost of repair works necessary to restore the road and the pipeline amount to USD 35-40 million (tentative). Activities to be implemented: The complete prevention of the disastrous events described above exceeds human capability, though the mitigation or partial avoiding of their impact is nevertheless possible by undertaking certain technical and organisational measures. They include:

Specification of hazard zones from the bottom of the Dariali Gorge up to 80-100 m high in the canyons of the Amali, Devdorakistskali, Chkheri and Blota rivers, as well as at the 300-400 m long sections of the Tergi River Gorge at the mouths of the Amali and Chkheri rivers.

Arranging an early warning system in the above-mentioned canyons to guarantee the quick evacuation of people from dangerous zones in case of hazardous alteration of river run-off and crumbling of glacier avalanches. Creation of an observation system in Stephantsminda and vil. Gveleti. Perfection of this monitoring system using modern technical means;

Artificial demolition by explosion of Devdoraki Glacier cornices in case of their transformation to the hazardous stage;

Laying of artificial drain canals in the Devdoraki Glacier tongue, as well as for draining the water from the blocked up moraine and glacier lakes;

 

 

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Laying of 2-3 drain canals at the lower terraces of the Amali and Chkheri rivers’ right banks to partition bursting floods and the streamflow, and decrease midstream intensity in the main beds of the rivers;

Construction of a 700-800 m draining and ventilation tunnel at the right bank of the Tergi River near the mouth of the Amali River. In case of blocking up of the Tergi River Gorge this tunnel will pass the blocked water, thus avoiding the disastrous flooding of areas at the lower reaches of the river;

Carrying out specialised observations in the blocked up region to construct the map demonstrating the distribution of expected hazard parameters and elaborate recommendations for the reduction to a minimum of possible losses.

Project cost: Project expenses are to be estimated after carrying out a specialised engineering survey at the Devdoraki Glacier and in the Tergi River Gorge and preparation of full feasibility study.

References

1. Glossary on Agriculture Meteorology. Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 2002 (in Russian);

2. Jones R. G., et al. Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met. Office Hadley Center, UK, 2004;

3. Wigley T.M.L., Raper S.C.B., Smith S., Hulme M. The MAGICC/SCENGEN Climate Scenario Generator: Version 2.4: Technical Manual. Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK, 2000;

4. Nakicenovic N. et al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. IPCC, Cambridge, 2000;

5. Metreveli G.S. et al. Global Warming – Present Climate Fluctuation and Current Eustasy. World Resource Review, 2006, Vol. 18, No. 4;

6. Shvangiradze M., Kutaladze N. The anticipated climate change in Georgia. Bulletin of SNC, Result obtained in 2007. Tbilisi, 2008;

7. Kordzakhia M. Climate of Georgia. Tbilisi, 1961 (in Georgian); 8. Turmanidze T., Simonishvili L. Ecological problems of Georgia’s food security.

Tbilisi, 2006 (in Georgian); 9. Yates D., Sieber J., Purkey D., Huber – Lee A. WEAP21-A Demand-, Priority-, and

Preference – Driven Water Planning Model Part 1: Model Characteristics. Water International, 2005, vol. 30, #4, pp. 487-500;

10. Yates D., Sieber J., Purkey D., Huber – Lee A. WEAP21-A Demand-, Priority-, and Preference – Driven Water Planning Model Part 2: Aiding Freshwater Ecosystem Service Evaluation. Watering International, 2005, vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 487-500;

11. Clarke D. CropWat for Windows: User Guide, Version 4.2.0013. October 1998; 12. Beruchashvili N.L. Landscapes, models, experiments. Tbilisi, 1995 (in Russian); 13. Tsereteli E., Gaprindashvili M., General state of geological calamities and the

development of landslide and mudstream phenomena in Georgia. Tbilisi, 2000 (in Georgian);

14. Stockes C.R., Gurney S.D., Shahgedanova M., Popovnin V. Late-20th-century changes in glacier extent in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia. Journal of Glaciology, 2006, vol. 52, No. 176, pp. 99-109;

15. Vachiberidze I. The Boomerang Principle. Climate Change and Human Health. Tbilisi, 2008 (in Georgian).

 

 

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Chapter 5 Policies and measures to mitigate climate change

5.1. Energy sector evolution scenarios

Introduction. The greenhouse gases inventory prepared within the SNC of Georgia for the years 2000-2006 demonstrated that the leading sector in GHG emissions is the Energy sector (including the Transport subsector). That is why the main accent was placed on this sector in the planning of mitigation measures. However, this does not mean that other sectors, such as solid Waste, Agriculture and Forestry were not considered in the mitigation strategy, but rather that their share (excluding Forestry as a GHG sink) compared to the Energy sector is not significant in Georgia. To estimate future trends of GHG emissions under different mitigation policies, the software model LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) [1] was used, which was provided free of charge by the National Communications Support Programme (NCSP) which also organised the training workshop.

Methodology. LEAP software was used for estimating Georgia’s mitigation potential for the energy sector. LEAP is a flexible, easy to use, scenario-based system for the integrated management of the energy sector. The software enables forecasting of the evolution of the energy sector, integrated planning of resources, analysis of mitigation policies and inventory of GHGs and energy balances. LEAP is a scenario-oriented model which is different from forecasting models. Creation of the structure of the Energy sector (Current accounts) LEAP is a bottom-up, demand driven model. The structure of the Energy sector in this model consists of three subsectors:

The Energy Demand Sector The Transformation and Distribution Sector The Energy Resources Sector.

In the process of applying of this model the country’s Energy sector structure was established as a,first step and then possible evolution scenarios were modelled and compared. The structure of Georgia’s Energy sector was based on the year 2006, which was taken as baseline year. For the construction of current accounts and scenarios, the different studies carried out in Georgia have been used. Main studies applied are: the Energy Efficient Potential in Georgia and Policy Options of Its Utilisation, Rural Energy Programme, Fund World Experience for Georgia, 2007 [2]; Renewable Energy Potential in Georgia and Policy Options of Its Utilisation, Rural Energy Programme, World Experience for Georgia, 2007 [3]; Energy Balance of Power Sector of Georgia: Part 2: Balances from 1960 to 2005, USAID, Advisory Assistance to the Ministry of Energy of Georgia, 2006 [4]; Energy Balance of Georgia 2001, State Department of Statistics of Georgia [5] and the web page of the Ministry of Energy of Georgia (http://www.minenergy.gov.ge) [6].

The energy resources of Georgia. Georgia is not rich in fossil fuels and other energy resources, but different quantities of nearly all types of resources can be found on its territory. Such

 

 

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resources are: hydro, wood, coal, peat, oil, associated gas, and thermal water. Also there are quite favourable conditions for the use of solar and wind energies. From the traditional fuel and energy resources of Georgia, hydro power resources, coal and oil are especially interesting. But it must be underlined that their theoretical (geological) reserves greatly exceed their technical balance, and this is especially true in relation to coal and oil resources. Hydro energy resources: Georgia is especially rich in hydro energy resources. This is mostly due to the mountainous relief of the country. West Georgia has remarkable hydro power potential. In total, there are 26,000 rivers on the territory of Georgia, with a total approximate length of 60,000 km. According to data from the Georgian research institute “Hydroproject”, out of the total number of Georgian rivers, 319 are especially interesting due to their hydro power potential, with an aggregate annual potential of 15.63 million kW, and an annual average power of 135.80 billion kWh. In conditions of optimal usage of these resources, the GHG emissions from the Georgian electricity generation sector could become zero. 40% of the technical hydro resources of these 319 rivers come from the eight biggest rivers of Georgia (Mtkvari, Rioni, Enguri, Tskhenistskali, Kodori, Bzipi, Khrami and Aragvi). This creates favourable conditions for hydro power development in the country. But it must be mentioned that the seasonal distribution of these resources is not even and this fact must be considered in terms of Georgia’s energy sustainability. The list of projects offered by the Ministry of Energy of Georgia for investment includes projects for the construction of small and medium hydro power plants, as well as the construction and rehabilitation of large energy plants, which will additionally give the country annually approximately 5 billion kWh of electricity from small and medium plants, and about 10 billion kWh from the big plants (http://www.minenergy.gov.ge). Wood: Wood and forest resources hold second place in the resources section of the local energy balance. Georgia is rich in forests, but they are not evenly distributed in East and West Georgia, and some regions are poor in firewood. The real 'hands-on' wood cutting volumes significantly exceed the limits permitted for wood cutting, and skew the official statistics. This imbalance is criticised by many national experts. In energy balances based on statistical data, the annual demand for wood is equal to 300-350,000 tonnes of oil equivalent (toe), while some independent researchers show that it amounts to 450-550,000 toe [7]. The wood potential of Georgia is so great that it could be successfully employed to provide its entire energy security. First of all, this concerns the plantation forests which can produce firewood to replace natural gas in winter for heating, and reduce the country’s dependence on imported fuel. Due to the fact that the projects of plantation woods have not been discussed in future plans for the development of the energy sector, their potential has not been considered in the LEAP model either. But its potential is promising, and it has been considered as a recommendation in the overall strategy of Georgia’s energy sector, and already prepared, considering the requirements of the UNFCCC. This resource needs better estimation in elaborating the concept for the future energy security of the country. Coal: For the energy security of the country, coal is quite interesting, from locally existing resources, especially due to the scale of coal reserves and the extraction experience. Georgia is the only country among the South Caucasus republics possessing this resource. There are seven coal fields in Georgia. Out of them, only three have industrial importance. These are the Tkibuli-Shaori, the Tkvarcheli coal deposit, and the Akhaltsikhe brown coal deposit. Total resources are estimated at 13.7 million tonnes. Despite such reserves, the geological conditions for the extraction of coal in Georgia are quite difficult. The fields are located at great depth, the relief is mountainous, and the content of methane is quite significant (from 20 to 45 cubic metres per tonne). Owing to these and other reasons (insufficient financing, absence of consumers, costly

 

 

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extraction, etc.) the coal industry is nearly at a standstill at present. Nevertheless, the Georgian government considers this resource as one of its priorities to solve the social problems of the region. Oil: The geological study of oilfields in Georgia started in the 19th century, and this work acquired a systematic and intensive character in 1929-1930. But it did not result in discovery of oil rich fields. In 2008, only 68 thousand tonnes of oil was extracted. Natural gas: Significant gas fields in Georgia have not been discovered on Georgian territory yet. In various places, there are small deposits of natural gas. Georgia nowadays mostly uses imported natural gas. According to 2008 data about 20 million m3 of gas has been recovered in Georgia. Alternative energy sources: Georgia is rich in alternative sources of energy.

Wind energy: Measurements of wind speed have been carried out in Georgia at 165 meteorological stations over several decades. It has been proven that total wind energy potential amounts to 1,300 GWh. Technical potential has been estimated at 5 GWh. The calculations show that about 2,000 MW of capacity and 5 GWh, or about 60% of current electricity consumption in Georgia, can be obtained from wind farms. This estimate covers only the most promising areas with the highest wind potential. It has to be noted that the highest share of wind energy is in winter months when hydro power plants suffer shortage of water, and the country depends on imports. Annex V depicts the map of highly productive potential wind farms showing the capacity and potential generation data.

Thermal waters. Georgia is a moderate thermal region, where the temperature of hydrothermal resources does not exceed 1100C. There are approximately 250 wells and springs of geothermal water with temperatures between 30 and 1100 C. Their total output is 160,000 m3 per day. Different sources estimate our technical potential of thermal resources at 300 MW. About 80% of this geothermal potential is concentrated in West Georgia. Thermal waters in Georgia have great potential due to the positive quality characteristics of the water, and low mineralisation (0.22-2.9 grammes per litre). Besides this, most of the waters do not cause intensive corrosion on metals and do not form salt sediment. All these are conducive to a wider use of thermal waters. In this proposed strategy, we consider the use of several prospective deposits (Lisi, Zugdidi-Tsaishi, Poti, Senaki-Menji, and Tskaltubo).

Solar energy. Georgia is a country known for its mountainous relief and for its villages high in the mountains, with a total number of about 100 (or 500 households), one of the most promising alternative sources of energy is solar energy. At the same time, it is the cleanest and most permanent primary energy resource. Georgia, as a southern country, is rich in solar energy, and is located in the so-called sun zone of the world (north latitude 450 and south latitude 450). The theoretical amount of solar energy reaching our territory during a year is 1014 kWh. In most localities in Georgia, the duration of annual sunshine is quite long, and it fluctuates between 1,300 and 2,400 ha. At the same time, regions of East Georgia are sunnier than regions on the Black Sea coast and in the Kolkhida Lowland. The highest figure of sunshine is in Rodionovka (2,433 h), the lowest in Sairme (1,300 h). During winter months the sun shines an average of 80-120 h, in summer months sometimes 285-300 h, and in droughty years 300-360 h.

Biogas: Biogas potential has not been well studied in Georgia. With crude expert estimations [8], the total annual amount of animal manure is about 15-20 million tonnes,

 

 

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out of which 3-5 million tonnes could be transformed into biogas (120-200 million m3), which is equivalent to 70-120 million m3 of natural gas. Maybe this amount is not very impressive, but it is a very significant resource in such a mountainous country as Georgia, which does not have large resources of fossil fuel.

Energy transformation and distribution in Georgia. The energy transformation subsector includes the energy generation segment, where one kind of energy is transformed into another. In Georgia, the main segments of the transformation subsector are that of electricity generation, and oil refineries. Oil refinery: Oil processing has a rich history in Georgia. The Batumi oil refinery was the product of the planned economy. Its annual production was oriented towards the processing of 5 million tonnes of crude oil, and the products included nearly all petroleum products. In the course of time, due to the development of the oil processing industry in neighbouring countries, and the ecological problems of the Batumi operational capacity of the factory, annual production was gradually reduced. The obsolete technological equipment had not been replaced with new ones, and thus, in the 1990s, the factory had a decreased range of products, and ceased work. Oil processing had been transferred to outside Tbilisi, to a new factory, which operated during 2001-2005 with low capacity and periodic stoppages. In different regions of Georgia, there were so called “mini” factories, which mainly imported the remains of oil products and diesel fuel from neighbouring Azerbaijan. Due to different ecological and legislative limitations, at present no oil refinery is functioning in Georgia, and hence the petroleum products consumed in Georgia are imported. Electricity generation and distribution: There are two types of electricity plant in Georgia: hydro power plants and thermal plants, which produce electricity from imported natural gas.

The following factors characterise electricity generation in Georgia: Thermal plants operate only in autumn-winter and serve to cover electricity deficits. The import of electricity is also performed in winter (because of an increase in electricity

demand, and decreases in hydro generation, as well as the insufficient capacity of thermal plants alone), to secure the stability of the electricity supply.

The figure below shows the dynamics of electricity generation for the years 2002-2007.

Figure.5.1. The dynamics of electricity generation, 2002-2007. Source: the web page of the Ministry of Energy

(http://www.minenergy.gov.ge )

 

 

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A more recent (2005-2007) trend in Georgia’s Energy sector has been to reduce electricity imports and replace them with gas imports, for the local thermal generation of electricity. Since there is no significant production of fossil fuel in Georgia, the thermal plants can not directly contribute to the country’s energy independence and energy security. For these thermal plants the country needs to import natural gas. Of course, in this way electricity imports decrease but also increase demands on natural gas (or other fuel). Because it is possible to create reserves of natural gas in case of instability of the electricity system, the operation of thermal plants can add to the diversity of supply by allowing the import of gas instead of electricity. What is being achieved by the construction of new thermal plants, is more capacity in converting the energy of imported fossil fuel into electricity. Thermal plants are needed for the stability of the power system, and in optimising the production of hydro plants; however, their contribution to energy security is of secondary importance. On the other hand, electricity generation by thermal plants increases GHG emissions from the electricity generation sector from the territory of Georgia, which does not happen in the case of electricity imports. Over the last two years, Georgia has made significant progress in accounting for energy consumption and increasing cost collection. In the electricity sector, large industrial consumers pay the costs of consumed energy almost in full. By 1 June 2007, commercial losses of electricity were down to 16%, which is a very important achievement. In the total energy system of the country, the winter peak load has decreased from 1,600 MW in 2005 to 1,200 MW in 2007, since metering was improved. This was an important step forward. According to the Energy Balance for 2006 [2], electricity generation and transmission losses amounted to 13.2%. Natural gas distribution: As already mentioned, Georgia consumes imported natural gas. The biggest distributors of imported gas are “Kaztransgas-Tbilisi” and “Itera-Georgia” (it owns most of the regional gas distribution companies). Commercial losses in distribution companies are unfortunately high. According to “Kaztransgas-Tbilisi” data, losses amounted to 30-40% of purchased gas income. Natural gas is also used for electricity generation. According to the Georgian Oil and Gas Corporation data, the losses in the main gas pipelines are far less than 10%. For this reason, losses of gas transmission and technical distribution losses in this study are assumed to be 10%.

Energy demand sector. During transition to a market economy, radical changes took place in the structure of the energy demand sector. The pie-chart below shows the distribution of energy consumption between demand sectors in 2006:

 

 

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Figure. 5.2. The distribution of energy consumption between demand sectors, 2006 [2].

As can be seen, the largest share of energy consumption is in the residential sector (39%), which is almost twice as large as the transport sector (23%), the second largest energy consumer. Industry (15%) is placed in the third place of the total energy consumption in Georgia; these three sectors are discussed in more detail below: Industry: The industrial sector includes: metallurgical enterprises, chemical and petrochemical materials, non-metal enterprises, and all the others, among them small enterprises. This classification is used by the International Energy Agency as these enterprises can be disaggregated on the basis of energy consumption. The industrial sector was the major consumer of energy during the Soviet period. After the breakdown of the Soviet Union, digressive processes in all the sectors of industry soon appeared. The situation was especially difficult for big energy-consuming enterprises, the majority of which either stopped functioning or were functioning at very low capacities. Nowadays, energy consumption by the industrial sector is much less than that of the residential and transport sectors. In 2006, industry used five times less oil products than the transport sector. Most of this fuel was consumed by other enterprises, and used for non-power needs. In the Soviet era, the biggest consumer of natural gas was heavy industry. At present the only distinguished consumer of gas resources is the energy sector. From industry, the only large consumers of natural gas are “Energy Invest” with its fertilizer-producing enterprise “Azot” (in Rustavi) and “Heidelberg-Cement Georgia”, producing cement in Rustavi and Kaspi. The construction of Georgia’s industrial sector (as well as the services sector) structure and estimation of its evolution with high accuracy is a complex task. To solve it, one needs to have information about the end-user’s internal structure regarding energy consumption, the technical conditions of equipment, efficiency, their work regimes, the statistics of energy consumption, the load curves for production, future plans, etc. Gathering such information means performing an energy audit for each end-user, which takes significant time and resources and is not being practiced by industrial sector. That is why in scenarios for these sectors (industry and services) a simplified aggregated approach has been used, along with the results from already performed surveys. In particular, to project the evolution of these sectors, the approach introduced in the report on a Natural Gas Strategy for Georgia [7] was applied, where the growth of demand for fuel was taken to be proportional to GDP growth. To estimate the energy efficiency potential of these sectors, the evaluations from a study of energy efficiency potential in Georgia and policy options of its utilisation [2] were used.

 

 

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Transport: The transport sector is the largest consumer of oil products (petrol, diesel). In 2006 it consumed 65% of total oil products consumed by Georgia. There exist no reliable statistics in Georgia about fuel consumption by transport, transport types, quantities, and freight and passenger turnover. Current data is not valid either. The statistics of the transport sector, as well as statistics of its fuel consumption, need considerable improvement. There has not been any research performed concerning the efficiency of the transport sector, the optimisation of fuel consumption, or upon emissions mitigation in this sector. There exists no state legislation for the development and optimisation of this sector. That is why a simplified aggregated, GDP-dependent approach was used for estimating the evolution of this sector in future. No mitigation measures were considered for this sector. This question needs to be resolved in future. Residential: The residential sector is the largest consumer of energy in Georgia. It mainly consumes electricity, natural gas, and firewood. The major portion of commercial losses of electricity and natural gas by distribution companies is localised in this sector. That is why this sector is considered the one with highest potential for energy savings. Energy consumption in the residential sector is characterised by sharp seasonality. The ratio of Georgia’s domestic consumption minimum in summer to its maximum in winter (seasonality coefficient), is about 55%. Consumption’s seasonal variations are especially high in large cities, where a great number of consumers use electric heaters in the winter period, and in the summer they leave their permanent dwelling places for extended periods to take holidays. Monthly energy consumption in villages and the regions is more even than in the larger towns. The urban population consumes electricity mainly for lighting. Natural gas and wood are used for heating and hot water supply. As for air conditioning, initial research shows that its share in total energy consumption is insignificant and does not have any serious impact on Georgia’s seasonal character of energy consumption. Georgia’s population mainly uses electricity, natural gas and firewood for heating and hot water supply, firewood being mostly used in non-gasified regions. As already mentioned, existing official and expert estimations of firewood consumption differ significantly. This question must be better examined in the future.

Georgia’s energy sector evolution scenarios. According to a bottom-up analysis procedure, in addition to describing the structure of Georgia’s Energy sector, several scenarios were developed that explored a range of possible future energy pathways. They combined narrative (scenario storylines) and modelling methods (using LEAP) to illustrate alternative contexts, and to analyse potential outcomes. At this stage, only three possible scenarios were explored: a Baseline scenario (BAU scenario 0), a Split Public scenario (scenario 1) and a National Policy scenario (scenario 2). The storylines for these scenarios have to be discussed separately.

Baseline scenario (BAU scenario 0)

The Baseline scenario depicts a world formed by the outcomes following Georgia’s energy crisis in the 1990s. The country had not developed any integrated vision for the future and just tried to solve the energy crisis. The government currently tries to ensure a supply of electricity and natural gas by any means. The economic development of the country is one of the top priorities.

 

 

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The following assumptions were made to construct this scenario:

Changes in the residential, transportation, commercial, and industrial sectors are shaped by incremental trends, but based on old technologies. New technologies have not been developed nor implemented.

The Baseline pathway is characterised by steady but small population growth, the development of the economy, and GDP growth.

GDP growth in the Baseline scenario is based on plans of the Georgian government [7, 8] and expert estimations. The source of GDP information for 2007 and 2008 is the Department of Statistics.

Table 5.1. GDP Growth

Years 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 Real GDP Growth 11.2% 9.0% 10% 9.5% 8% 8.5% 7% 5%

For each demand sector, GDP growth depends on recent trends and expert estimations. The state economy grows enough for consumers to increase the size of their homes and

use private appliances and consequently consume more energy. The population remains uninformed about the necessity of the effective use of energy. The GDP growth of the residential sector is less than state GDP growth (only 65% of the state GDP growth).

The transportation sector reflects the economy’s growth, but without changes in transportation technologies. The overall national transportation policy context has not changed, and the national fuel economy standard remains unoptimised. A significant part of the population purchases bigger cars (a majority of which are second hand) and they drive more often. Large, non-efficient cars remain popular in society. With the development of the TRACECA (Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia) transportation corridor, the freight turnover has increased and the railway has developed. The transportation sector reflects government policy, represented by the following statement: “Implement “open policy” for every type of transport to ensure mobility, international integration and transportation attractiveness” [9,10]. According to this, the GDP growth from transportation sector increases by 16% more than the national GDP growth.

The industrial and services sectors also reflect the growth of the national economy. The GDP growth from these sectors increases by 35% and 13% respectively more than the national GDP growth.

The GDP growth of agriculture was 29% less than the national GDP growth. Non-energy and other sectors grew proportionally to the national GDP.

In the electricity generation sector, Georgia continued its recent tendency to decrease its electricity imports and replace them with locally-generated electricity. The plan of the state government [11] to construct wind plants started with delays and by 2025 the share of wind farms in electricity generation should be only 3%.

Alternative scenario 1 – Split Public scenario Split Public is a scenario that explores how a set of energy activities motivated by individual and community interests, with neither a common national policy nor an organised co-ordination of processes, can influence Georgia’s energy pathway.

 

 

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In the Split Public scenario, a motivated segment of the public has begun to organise and initiate clean energy activities, on individual and local levels. Self-labelled ‘‘progressive energy enthusiasts’’ (NGOs, local government, municipalities) under their projects and programmes promote efficiency activities in the domains where they exert influence – in households, consumer preferences, and communities. Split Public highlights public interest as a critical agent in Georgia’s future energy pathway. The following assumptions were made to construct this scenario:

The domestic sector plays a pro-active role in energy saving initiatives. Significant increases in the share of energy efficient lights, windows, and wood stoves in households.

The electricity and natural gas distribution companies pay more attention to the reduction of commercial losses. Precise metering and higher incomes from cost collection represent a better economic stimulus for consumers to reduce energy consumption, or invest in energy efficient technologies.

There has been no change in the transport sector. The industrial sector remains the same as in the Baseline scenario. Large industrial

consumers don’t implement energy efficient technologies. There has been some change in the services sector, where small commercial companies

and municipalities implement energy efficient projects. Energy efficiency has improved by 14%. Nevertheless, the process is unorganised.

Despite dynamism in certain areas, the reach of Split Public is limited by a lack of additional co-operation and co-ordination by national government, national policy, and the industrial sector. Without state government and private sector engagement, industrial energy and larger-scale electricity generation are outside of local control and do not differ significantly from the Baseline scenario.

In the electricity generation sector this scenario assumes the wind plant share will be 6% by 2025. Here, maximum activity of foreign donors and a Kyoto Clean Development Mechanism is expected. But without state policy and good will, wind plants reaching a significant share in electricity generation is not very realistic.

Alternative scenario 2 – National Policy scenario

National Policy is a scenario of co-ordinated activities at the individual, local, and national levels. This scenario integrates the local and community-led activities of Split Public with a progressive state energy policy and a planning mandate focused on clean energy and emissions reductions. To achieve these objectives, state agencies underwent significant reorganisation to consolidate, integrate, and reassert authority to collect energy information and initiate long-term policy and planning. The state has implemented a significant campaign to inform a wide audience about efficient and renewable energies. It assists in the implementation of clean energy projects, the involvement of the banking sector, research in the development of emissions reduction technologies, and in the spheres of energy efficiency and renewable energy, etc. This National Policy scenario explores how joint state, individual and community activities might affect the future of Georgia’s energy system. The following assumptions were made to construct this scenario:

The National Policy scenario incorporates the same energy saving initiatives in the residential activities as in Split Public. However, these changes are to be adopted more quickly than in Split Public through the organisation of processes and support from the national government. This includes information campaigns, energy-efficient labels,

 

 

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special taxing policies, new construction codes, etc. A new national policy supports the establishment of new markets for renewable energy. Geothermal water is to be used more intensively for heating and hot water supply. In the mountainous regions, solar energy is developed, and solar heaters are to become more widespread. Solar energy will become one of the priorities in the high mountainous villages, as well as in tourist zones, and mostly in Adjara.

A flexible taxation policy will help large industrial and commercial consumers to implement new energy efficient technologies and services. In the tourist sector (hotels), new heaters will be implemented based on renewable energy sources (solar, geothermal).

The agriculture sector will develop further and geothermal waters will be more intensively used in agricultural complexes.

The only sector which will not undergo any change is the transport sector. Electricity generation by thermal plants will be decreased and become zero by 2025. It is

to be replaced by other kinds of energy. According to the national policy, new small and medium hydro plants are to be constructed. By 2025, the share of wind plants will be 9%. In addition, the distribution and generation of electricity is to be managed effectively. When needed, electricity will be imported, but this import is to be compensated by the export of extra electricity in summer.

Quantitative characteristics of Energy sector evolution scenarios. According to the above storylines the modelled parameters were chosen and estimated quantitatively. The scenario elements are modelled using explicit assumptions of how energy, technology, and activity parameters change over time. This approach links contextual narratives to specific physical changes in use patterns, technology attributes, and demographic drivers. The modelled parameters are presented in the second column of Table 5.2. It is important to recognise that scenarios do not aim to make any distinct claims about how the future will actually unfold. Rather, the results demonstrate a subset of the many activities and outcomes that are possible. This subset includes activities which are in accordance with scenario storylines and our present knowledge of energy systems, and which enable us to estimate critical uncertainties present in Georgia’s energy system.

Tab

le 5

.2.Q

uan

tita

tive

cha

ract

eris

tics

of

En

ergy

sec

tor

evol

uti

on s

cen

ario

s

Sec

tors

C

urr

ent

acco

un

ts

(200

6)

BA

U s

cena

rio

(0)

Sp

lit P

ublic

sce

nar

io (

1)

Nat

iona

l Pol

icy

scen

ario

(2)

Res

iden

tial

se

ctor

Po

pula

tion

4.40

13 m

, av

erag

e fa

mily

3.6

per

sons

Popu

latio

n gr

owth

rate

0.5

%

Popu

latio

n gr

owth

rate

0.5

%

Popu

latio

n gr

owth

rate

0.5

%

Ener

gy c

onsu

med

per

fam

ily in

crea

ses

prop

ortio

nally

to G

DP.

En

ergy

con

sum

ed p

er fa

mily

incr

ease

s pr

opor

tiona

lly to

GD

P.

Ener

gy c

onsu

med

per

fam

ily in

crea

ses

prop

ortio

nally

to G

DP.

18

% o

f rur

al h

ouse

hold

s are

ga

sifie

d

Reg

ions

are

gas

ified

. B

y 20

15 3

5% o

f rur

al h

ouse

hold

s are

ga

sifie

d. B

y 20

25 7

0% o

f rur

al

hous

ehol

ds a

re g

asifi

ed.

N

atur

al g

as c

onsu

med

per

fam

ily

incr

ease

s pro

porti

onal

ly to

GD

P.

Reg

ions

are

gas

ified

. By

2015

35%

of r

ural

ho

useh

olds

are

gas

ified

.

By

2025

70%

of r

ural

hou

seho

lds a

re

gasi

fied.

N

atur

al g

as c

onsu

med

per

fam

ily in

crea

ses

prop

ortio

nally

to G

DP.

Reg

ions

are

gas

ified

. B

y 20

15 3

5% o

f rur

al h

ouse

hold

s are

ga

sifie

d. B

y 20

25 7

0% o

f rur

al

hous

ehol

ds a

re g

asifi

ed.

N

atur

al g

as c

onsu

med

per

fam

ily

incr

ease

s pro

porti

onal

ly to

GD

P.

20%

of l

ight

bul

bs u

sed

by th

e po

pula

tion

are

ener

gy e

ffic

ient

. 20

% o

f lig

ht b

ulbs

use

d by

the

popu

latio

n ar

e en

ergy

eff

icie

nt. T

he

over

all q

uant

ity o

f ene

rgy

effic

ient

bu

lbs i

ncre

ases

, but

pop

ulat

ion

incr

ease

s as

wel

l as c

onsu

med

ele

ctric

ity, w

hich

is

why

the

shar

e of

this

par

amet

er re

mai

ns

the

sam

e.

By

2020

30%

of l

ight

bul

bs u

sed

by th

e po

pula

tion

are

ener

gy e

ffic

ient

; by

2025

, 50

%

By

2020

60%

of l

ight

bul

bs u

sed

by

popu

latio

n ar

e en

ergy

eff

icie

nt; b

y 20

25, 8

0%

20%

of p

opul

atio

n us

es e

nerg

y ef

ficie

nt re

frig

erat

ors.

20

% o

f pop

ulat

ion

uses

ene

rgy

effic

ient

re

frig

erat

ors.

The

over

all q

uant

ity o

f en

ergy

eff

icie

nt re

frig

erat

ors i

ncre

ases

, bu

t pop

ulat

ion

incr

ease

s as w

ell a

s co

nsum

ed e

lect

ricity

, whi

ch is

why

the

shar

e of

this

par

amet

er re

mai

ns th

e sa

me.

By

2020

30%

of p

opul

atio

n us

es e

nerg

y ef

ficie

nt re

frig

erat

ors;

by

2025

, 50%

. B

y 20

20 6

0% o

f pop

ulat

ion

uses

en

ergy

eff

icie

nt re

frig

erat

ors;

by

2025

, 80

%.

Ener

gy e

ffic

ient

win

dow

s and

do

ors a

re in

stal

led

in 5

% o

f dw

ellin

gs.

In 5

% o

f dw

ellin

gs e

nerg

y ef

ficie

nt

win

dow

s and

doo

rs a

re in

stal

led.

The

ov

eral

l qua

ntity

of e

nerg

y ef

ficie

nt

win

dow

s and

doo

rs in

crea

ses,

but

popu

latio

n in

crea

ses a

s wel

l as

cons

umed

hea

t, w

hich

is w

hy th

e sh

are

of th

is p

aram

eter

rem

ains

the

sam

e.

By

2025

ene

rgy

effic

ient

win

dow

s and

do

ors a

re in

stal

led

in 4

0% o

f dw

ellin

gs.

By

2025

ene

rgy

effic

ient

win

dow

s and

do

ors a

re in

stal

led

in 7

0% o

f dw

ellin

gs.

0% o

f rur

al h

ouse

hold

s use

en

ergy

eff

icie

nt w

ood

stov

es

(res

earc

h sh

ows t

hat e

ven

in

gasi

fied

regi

ons p

opul

atio

n us

es

firew

ood

as w

ell f

or h

eatin

g)

Fire

woo

d co

nsum

ed p

er fa

mily

in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to G

DP.

B

y 20

25 2

0% o

f rur

al h

ouse

hold

s use

en

ergy

eff

icie

nt w

ood

stov

es.

By

2025

90%

of r

ural

hou

seho

lds u

se

ener

gy e

ffic

ient

woo

d st

oves

.

Th

e co

mm

erci

al lo

sses

of

ener

gy d

istri

butio

n co

mpa

nies

ar

e:

-Tel

asi 1

6.1%

-E

nerg

opro

23.

7%

-Gas

dis

tribu

tion

com

pani

es

42%

B

y 20

15 e

lect

ricity

dis

tribu

tion

com

pani

es

redu

ce th

eir c

omm

erci

al lo

sses

to 6

%

caus

ing

the

popu

latio

n to

dec

reas

e th

eir

cons

umpt

ion

by 5

%.

By

2015

ele

ctric

ity d

istri

butio

n co

mpa

nies

redu

ce th

eir c

omm

erci

al

loss

es to

6%

cau

sing

the

popu

latio

n to

de

crea

se th

eir c

onsu

mpt

ion

by 5

%.

B

y 20

20 g

as d

istri

butio

n co

mpa

nies

redu

ce

thei

r com

mer

cial

loss

es to

30%

cau

sing

the

popu

latio

n to

dec

reas

e th

eir c

onsu

mpt

ion

by 1

2%.

By

2020

gas

dis

tribu

tion

com

pani

es

redu

ce th

eir c

omm

erci

al lo

sses

to 3

0%

caus

ing

the

popu

latio

n to

dec

reas

e th

eir c

onsu

mpt

ion

by 1

2%.

Now

aday

s pop

ulat

ion

in

mou

ntai

nous

vill

ages

of A

djar

a us

es fi

rew

ood

for h

eatin

g an

d ho

t wat

er su

pply

.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

By

2020

in n

on g

asifi

ed re

gion

s (M

ount

aino

us A

djar

a) so

lar h

eate

rs

are

inst

alle

d (1

42.0

0 m

gwt/h

r).

The

popu

latio

n (1

0,00

0 in

habi

tant

s) o

f Sab

urta

lo d

istri

ct

in T

bilis

i is s

uppl

ied

by h

ot

wat

er fr

om L

isi G

eoth

erm

al

depo

sit.

Con

sum

ptio

n (e

lect

ricity

, nat

ural

gas

) in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to G

DP,

co

nsum

ptio

n of

geo

ther

mal

hea

t re

mai

ns th

e sa

me.

Con

sum

ptio

n (e

lect

ricity

, nat

ural

gas

) in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to G

DP,

co

nsum

ptio

n of

geo

ther

mal

hea

t rem

ains

th

e sa

me.

Tbili

si G

eoth

erm

al h

eatin

g/ho

t wat

er

proj

ect i

s im

plem

ente

d ba

sed

on L

isi

geot

herm

al d

epos

it: st

artin

g fr

om 2

012

hot w

ater

is su

pplie

d to

30,

000

inha

bita

nts o

f Sab

urta

lo d

istri

ct, f

rom

20

15 th

e he

atin

g sy

stem

is p

rovi

ded

for s

ame

30,0

00 in

habi

tant

s. Fr

om

2019

hea

ting

and

hot w

ater

is su

pplie

d to

100

,000

inha

bita

nts.

(142

,793

MW

h =

12,2

78 to

e)

Now

aday

s pop

ulat

ion

in

Zugd

idi u

ses e

lect

ricity

, nat

ural

ga

s and

fire

woo

d fo

r hea

ting

and

hot w

ater

supp

ly.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

From

202

1 Zu

gdid

i Geo

ther

mal

he

atin

g/ho

t wat

er p

roje

ct is

im

plem

ente

d w

ith 7

0 m

gwt c

apac

ity,

unde

r whi

ch h

eatin

g an

d ho

t wat

er is

su

pplie

d to

69,

000

inha

bita

nts o

f Zu

gdid

i (75

,781

MW

h =

6,5

16 to

e).

Rem

aini

ng h

eat i

s sup

plie

d to

ag

ricul

ture

obj

ects

.

Now

aday

s pop

ulat

ion

in P

oti

uses

ele

ctric

ity a

nd fi

rew

ood

for

heat

ing

and

hot w

ater

supp

ly.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

From

202

1 Po

ti G

eoth

erm

al

heat

ing/

hot w

ater

pro

ject

is

impl

emen

ted

with

11.

6 m

gwt c

apac

ity,

unde

r whi

ch h

eatin

g an

d ho

t wat

er is

su

pplie

d to

30,

000

inha

bita

nts o

f Pot

i (6

,780

MW

h =5

83 to

e).

Rem

aini

ng h

eat i

s sup

plie

d to

ag

ricul

ture

obj

ects

.

Now

aday

s pop

ulat

ion

in S

enak

i-M

enji

uses

ele

ctric

ity a

nd

firew

ood

for h

eatin

g an

d ho

t w

ater

supp

ly.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

From

202

1 Se

naki

-Men

ji G

eoth

erm

al

heat

ing/

hot w

ater

pro

ject

is

impl

emen

ted

with

9.2

mgw

t cap

acity

, un

der w

hich

hea

ting

and

hot w

ater

is

supp

lied

to 5

2,10

0 in

habi

tant

s of P

oti

(57,

231

MW

h =

4,9

21 to

e).

Rem

aini

ng h

eat i

s sup

plie

d to

tour

ism

ob

ject

s. In

du

stry

an

d

Ser

vice

se

ctor

s

In 2

006

the

shar

e of

ene

rgy

cons

umpt

ion

from

thes

e se

ctor

s eq

uals

19%

.

Con

sum

ptio

n fr

om th

ese

sect

ors

incr

ease

s pro

porti

onal

ly to

GD

P. In

20

25 th

eir s

hare

equ

als 2

9%.

Con

sum

ptio

n fr

om th

ese

sect

ors i

ncre

ases

pr

opor

tiona

lly to

GD

P. B

y 20

25 e

nerg

y ef

ficie

ncy

of sm

all i

ndus

trial

, com

mer

cial

an

d se

rvic

e se

ctor

s inc

reas

es b

y 14

%.

Con

sum

ptio

n fr

om th

ese

sect

ors

incr

ease

s pro

porti

onal

ly to

GD

P. B

y 20

25 e

nerg

y ef

ficie

ncy

of sm

all

indu

stria

l, co

mm

erci

al a

nd se

rvic

e se

ctor

s inc

reas

es b

y 14

%, o

f lar

ge

indu

stry

by

20%

. To

uris

t bus

ines

s in

Adj

ara

regi

on u

ses e

lect

ricity

and

(n

atur

al g

as, f

irew

ood)

for

heat

ing

and

hot w

ater

supp

ly.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

By

2020

in A

djar

a ho

tels

sola

r hea

ter

are

inst

alle

d w

ith 5

23,2

60 m

gwt/h

r he

at m

ainl

y fo

r hot

wat

er su

pply

.

Tour

ist b

usin

ess i

n Ts

kaltu

bo

uses

ele

ctric

ity a

nd (n

atur

al g

as,

firew

ood)

for h

eatin

g an

d ho

t w

ater

supp

ly.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

From

202

1 Ts

kaltu

bo G

eoth

erm

al

heat

ing/

hot w

ater

pro

ject

is

impl

emen

ted

with

7.7

MW

h ca

paci

ty,

unde

r whi

ch h

eatin

g an

d ho

t wat

er is

su

pplie

d to

tour

ism

obj

ects

. (1

33,7

45 M

Wh

= 11

,500

toe)

.

Tour

ist b

usin

ess i

n Se

naki

-M

enji

uses

ele

ctric

ity a

nd

(nat

ural

gas

, fire

woo

d) fo

r he

atin

g an

d ho

t wat

er su

pply

.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

Con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

From

202

5 Se

naki

- Men

ji G

eoth

erm

al

heat

ing/

hot w

ater

pro

ject

is

impl

emen

ted

with

9.2

mgw

t cap

acity

, un

der w

hich

the

heat

not

supp

lied

to

the

popu

latio

n (a

bout

64%

) will

be

supp

lied

to to

uris

m o

bjec

ts.

(100

,937

MW

h =

8,67

9 to

e)

Agr

icu

ltu

re

Thos

e br

anch

es o

f agr

icul

ture

w

hich

use

hea

t ene

rgy

(pou

ltry

farm

s, gr

eenh

ouse

obj

ects

, etc

.) no

wad

ays a

re n

ot si

gnifi

cant

ly

deve

lope

d in

Zug

didi

regi

on a

nd

near

city

of P

oti.

Agr

icul

ture

is d

evel

opin

g (g

reen

hous

es,

poul

try fa

rms,

and

swin

e br

eedi

ng) a

nd

ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

incr

ease

s pr

opor

tiona

lly to

GD

P.

Agr

icul

ture

is d

evel

opin

g (g

reen

hous

es,

poul

try fa

rms,

and

swin

e br

eedi

ng) a

nd

ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

incr

ease

s pr

opor

tiona

lly to

GD

P.

Agr

icul

ture

is d

evel

opin

g (g

reen

hous

es, p

oultr

y fa

rms,

and

swin

e br

eedi

ng) a

nd e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n in

crea

ses p

ropo

rtion

ally

to

GD

P.

From

202

1 95

% o

f 70

mgw

t cap

acity

of

Zug

didi

Geo

ther

mal

pro

ject

and

11

.6 m

gwt c

apac

ity o

f Pot

i G

eoth

erm

al p

roje

ct a

re u

sed

for

agric

ultu

re o

bjec

ts.

Rem

ain

ing

sub

sect

ors

The

shar

e of

thes

e se

ctor

s in

tota

l con

sum

ptio

n is

36%

En

ergy

con

sum

ptio

n in

crea

ses

prop

ortio

nally

to G

DP

and

thei

r sha

re

equa

ls to

40%

.

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

incr

ease

s pr

opor

tiona

lly to

GD

P. T

heir

shar

e de

pend

s on

impl

emen

ted

ener

gy e

ffic

ienc

y m

easu

res

in a

ll se

ctor

s.

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

incr

ease

s pr

opor

tiona

lly to

GD

P. T

heir

shar

e de

pend

s on

impl

emen

ted

ener

gy

effic

ienc

y m

easu

res i

n al

l sec

tors

. E

lect

rici

ty

gen

erat

ion

2006

20

25

20

25

20

25

H

ydro

gen

erat

ion

-72%

Hyd

ro g

ener

atio

n -8

1%

H

ydro

gen

erat

ion

-85%

Hyd

ro g

ener

atio

n -9

1%

Th

erm

al g

ener

atio

n –

28%

Ther

mal

gen

erat

ion

– 16

%

Th

erm

al g

ener

atio

n –

9%

Th

erm

al g

ener

atio

n –

0%

N

et (i

mpo

rt-ex

port)

impo

rt - 5

3 th

ousa

nd to

e

Net

impo

rt -0

N

et im

port

-0

Net

impo

rt -0

Win

d ge

nera

tion

- 0%

W

ind

gene

ratio

n - 3

%

W

ind

gene

ratio

n - 6

%

W

ind

gene

ratio

n - 9

%

 

 

187

Modelling Results Energy consumption. According to the BAU scenario, energy consumption of demand sectors in future will significantly increase. Results show that by 2025 the largest energy consumption will be in the transport sector, followed by the residential and industrial sectors (Fig. 5.3).

Figure. 5.3. Distribution of energy consumption in demand sectors in 2025 according to the ‘BAU

scenario’

Each of the alternative scenarios demonstrates energy savings compared to the BAU scenario in 2025, with the National Policy scenario showing greater energy savings (10%) than the Split Public scenario (6%). The largest component of these savings is to be derived from the industrial sector (51%), with residential (44 %) and service sector (4%) activity savings making up smaller shares. At this stage, alternative scenarios have not considered the possibilities of savings in transportation and other demand sectors (Fig. 5.4).

Figure 5.4. Energy consumption and energy savings by demand sector according to the BAU and

alternative scenarios (thousand toe) Table 5.3 below shows the possibilities of energy savings for each demand sector and each type of fuel separately.

 

 

188

Table 5.3. Energy consumption and energy savings for demand sectors and fuel types according to the BAU and

alternative scenarios

Current accounts

BAU scenario Split Public scenario National Policy

Scenario

2006 2025 2025 2025

Consumption (thousand toe)

Consumption (thousand toe)

Consumption (thousand

toe)

savings (%)

Consumption (thousand

toe)

savings (%)

Residential sector

Energy Consumption:

1,000.8 2,336.4 2,098.5 10% 1,967.1 16%

composed by:

Renewable 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.5

Oil Products 75.2 34.0 34.0 0% 34.0 0%

Natural gas 201.2 885.5 764.2 14% 718.1 19%

Electricity 395.6 875.7 802.4 8% 768.8 12%

Biomass 328.8 541.3 498.0 8% 409.8 24%

Industry and service sectors

Energy consumption:

490.0 2,421.5 2,136.2 12% 1,965.3 19%

composed by:

Solid fuel 3.0 6.0 5.5 5.5

Renewable 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.2

Oil products 102.7 521.8 392.9 25% 352.3 32%

Natural gas 195.0 981.4 880.5 10% 788.9 20%

Heat 28.0 126.8 114.8 9% 106.5 16%

Electricity 132.0 667.8 641.4 4% 545.6 18%

Crude Oil 5.3 21.2 18.3 14% 18.3 14%

Biomass 24.0 96.5 83.0 14% 83.0 14%

Agriculture Energy consumption:

160.0 388.7 388.7 0% 388.7 0%

composed by:

Renewable 0.0 0.0 0.0 114.1

Oil products 64.0 155.5 155.5 0% 98.4 37%

Natural gas 58.0 140.9 140.9 0% 83.8 40%

Heat 4.0 9.7 9.7 0% 9.7 0%

Electricity 14.0 34.0 34.0 0% 34.0 0%

Biomass 20.0 48.6 48.6 0% 48.6 0%

Transportation and other sectors

Energy consumption: 915 3,379.6 3,379.6 0% 3,379.6 0%

Total energy consumption: 2,565.8 8,526.2 8,002.9 6% 7,700.6 10%

 

 

189

Residential, agricultural, industrial and service sector savings are to be achieved in the alternative scenarios, through energy efficiency and renewable energy activities. Results show that small but wide-spread actions (such as the replacement of light bulbs) have measurable impacts on the whole system.

Electricity Generation. The structure of Georgia’s future electricity sector is highly uncertain. The BAU, Split Public and National Policy scenarios all explore different shares of wind energy in the electricity generation sector. That is why the structure of the electricity generation sector is different in all these scenarios. But all scenarios show that to fulfil the increased demand on electricity caused by a growing economy, the country needs to apply maximum efforts to ensure its electricity supply. In all scenarios there is the need to maximise the use of hydro resources and implement a majority of those projects that nowadays exist in the country (Annex VI) – this concerns small and medium hydro plants (504 MW) as well as large hydro plants (1,426 MW). If energy-efficiency measures are not implemented, the country will need an additional 300 MW thermal plant, and as small as a 300 MW wind plant. The Split Public scenario does not necessarily need a thermal plant, but an additional 590 MW capacity will be needed. In the National Policy scenario, the capacity of wind plants will increase to 810 MW, and the energy savings in the demand sector will make it possible to reduce thermal generation to zero.

Table 5.4. Electricity generation in BAU and alternative scenarios

Current accounts BAU scenario Split Public scenario National Policy scenario Total generation 7,419 mln kWh

Total generation 24,316 mln kWh

Total generation 22,978 mln kWh (saving 6%)

Total generation 21,245 mln kWh (saving 13%)

Hydro – 5,316 mln kWh

Hydro – 19,696 mln kWh

Hydro – 19,531 mln kWh

Hydro – 19,331 mln kWh

Thermal – 2,103 mln kWh

Thermal – 3,891 mln kWh

Thermal – 2,068 mln kWh

Thermal – 0

Wind - 0 kWh Wind – 729 mln kWh

Wind – 1,378 mln kWh

Wind – 1,912 mln kWh

Greenhouse-gas emissions. Reducing absolute and per-capita emissions from the Energy sector will require alternatives to the current trends. In order to explore opportunities for change, this analysis investigates the GHG implications of the scenarios, and considers their potential for mitigating emissions. Figure 5.5 shows the trends of emissions from Georgia’s Energy sector, according to the BAU (Scenario 0) and alternative scenarios (scenario 1 and 2).

 

 

190

Figure 5.5. Emissions from Georgia’s Energy sector according to the BAU and alternative scenarios (thousand Gg CO2-eq.)

In 2006, the GHG emissions from the Energy sector in Georgia equalled about 6.506 thousand Gg in CO2-equivalent. According to the traditional (BAU) scenario, by 2025, emissions will approximately triple compared to 2006 emissions, but will be less compared to the 1990 level (36.592 thousand Gg.). Each of the alternative scenarios demonstrate emission reductions compared to the BAU scenario in 2025, with the National Policy scenario showing greater reductions (24%) than the Split Public (12%). In the National Policy scenario, the largest component of these reductions is to be derived from electricity generation (55%) followed by the industrial (20%) and residential sectors (11%). The results show how different measures influence GHG emissions (Figure 5.6).

Figure 5.6. Emissions from Georgia’s Energy sector (by subsectors) according to the BAU and alternative

scenarios (thousand Gg CO2-eq.) The largest emitter of GHGs is the transport sector. In 2006, its share in total emissions from Energy sector was 23%. Emissions from the transport sector increased along with the growth of

 

 

191

the population, driving intensity, and the economy, and in 2025 it should be represented by 39%. This fact once more indicates that national government must pay more attention to the necessity of modern policy adoption in the transportation sector.

Table 5.5. Emissions from Georgia’s Energy sector and emission reductions by subsector according to the BAU and

alternative scenarios

Current accounts

BAU scenario

Split Public scenario National Policy scenario

2006 2025 2025 2025 Emissions (Gg CO2-

eq.)

Emissions (Gg CO2-

eq.)

Emissions (Gg CO2-

eq.)

Emission reduction

(%)

Emissions (Gg CO2-

eq.)

Emission reduction (%)

Total emissions 5,964 16,397.0 14,422.0 12% 12,461.0 24%

composed by:

Industry 668 3,547 2,970 16% 2,729 23%

Transport 1,286 6,456 6,456 0% 6,456 0% Residential sector 1215 2,358 2,060 13% 1,922 18%

Agriculture 654 825 825 0% 516 37%

Service sector 526 507 436 14% 331 35%

Unspecified 76 507 507 0% 507 0%Electricity generation 1,539 2,197 1,168 47% 0.00 100%

A significant result would be the possibility to reduce emissions in the electricity generation sector by increasing the share of plants working on renewable resources. According to the National Policy scenario, in 2025, the share of renewable resources in electricity generation sector will be at a maximum in 2025, and emissions will be reduced to zero. The figure below shows emissions from the electricity generation sector, according to different scenarios.

Figure 5.7. Emissions from Georgia’s electricity generation sector according to the BAU and alternative scenarios (thousand Gg CO2-eq.)

Conclusions and recommendations. The above energy scenarios were used as a tool to provide an opportunity to explore the context of current choices and priorities for the future. Below is a summary of important conclusions and policy implications that emerged from the scenario

BAU Scenario 

Split Public Scenario 

National Policy Scenario 

 

 

 

192

analysis, and which could serve as a basis for the strategy of development of Georgia’s energy sector for 2025:

1. The Georgian economy is highly dependent on fossil fuels. The BAU scenario (scenario 0) reveals increasing fossil fuel (oil products, natural gas) dependence, which is available in very limited quantities on the Georgian territory. Currently, fossil fuels satisfy 71% of the country’s primary energy demands. Expectations of gasification of Georgian territories, the growth of thermal electricity production, the increasing number of vehicles, and greater freight and passenger turnover, would take Georgia down a pathway toward even greater reliance on fossil fuels. These scenario analyses show that energy efficiency measures in the residential sector, and an increase in shares of renewable energy in electricity generation, would provide critical opportunities for achieving more diverse energy pathways.

2. Transportation is and will remain in the next 20 years the major emitter of greenhouse gases in the country. Transportation accounts for 31% of total emissions, which will grow to 39% by 2025. This sector also bears responsibility for national oil dependence and local air quality concerns. Recent trends of the transportation sector show that GDP growth from this sector is more than the average GDP growth. Georgia’s population has the tendency to purchase bigger and less efficient cars. Such growth of the transportation sector will place it in first place in energy consumption by 2025. That is why major attention must be paid to finding and implementing ways of optimising this sector (especially in large cities). Correct transportation policies, consumer preferences, or technologies that serve to increase fuel economy or promote alternative fuel uses, offer large opportunities for reducing future energy consumption, decreasing pollution, and increasing energy diversity. The magnitude of the share of this sector in dependence of our country on imported fuel, as well as in GHG emissions, provides hearty justification for assertive transportation policy and planning on state levels.

3. The diversity of Georgia’s future electric power sector is highly uncertain. On the one hand, there is a statement of the Georgian parliament which plans the increase of wind generation. On the other hand, it is already obvious that this statement has not been implemented. The current trend in the electricity generation sector shows a decrease in electricity imports and an increase in thermal generation (which increases dependency on imported natural gas). Electricity generation at thermal plants currently accounts for nearly 28% of electricity generation in Georgia. Consequently, the future composition of Georgia’s power sector is uncertain, and current activities and expectations lead in competing directions.

4. Alternative energy pathways are relevant and deserve attention. Georgia has significant resources of renewable energy, which can and must be used to diversify and secure Georgia’s energy system. As shown in these scenario analyses, renewable resources can significantly reduce emissions from Georgia’s power sector. As the pressures associated with continuing down a fossil fuel pathway continue to increase, alternative energy pathways will likely be viewed as even less ‘‘alternative’’ and more ‘‘necessary’’ in the future. Recognising the value of alternatives earlier in the country’s energy pathways offers even greater gains from earlier adopted measures.

5. A combination of individual initiatives, and local and national approaches, offers the greatest gains in emission reductions. It is obvious that not only individual and local efforts can significantly reduce GHG emissions, but also well thought out and planned policies on the state level will be necessary. On the other hand, the level of public interest, responsibility, and understanding, are very important factors in the country’s pathway. As an example, in the considered scenarios, taking into account only individual

 

 

193

or community activities, these led to a 50% share of energy efficient lighting by 2025; with a planned policy and programmes, this share can become as high as 80%.

6. Demand-side energy management offers important opportunities. Demand-side energy savings can play a significant part in reducing GHG emissions. Equally important is the recognition that energy savings involve both energy efficiency and decreasing energy consumption, as both technology and social choices have a role to play in Georgia’s energy pathway. Energy savings and energy efficiency are the simplest methods of emission reductions.

7. Long-term planning and co-operation must start now. Georgia is now in a transitional stage. The future of Georgia’s Energy sector depends on which development paths it chooses now. Based on past experience and research, the future successful evolution of Georgia demands new vision. In order for a new vision to emerge, it is necessary for the public, industry, government, and other critical stake holders to co-operate closely. State leadership is needed to facilitate active discussion and the consideration of alternatives for the future. Now is a critical time for the country to reorganise its energy planning activities, reassert its mandate for information gathering, and to incorporate new ideas into its planning and forecasting purview.

NATIONAL GHG MITIGATION STRATEGY (2010-2025) Georgia does not consider the abatement of GHG emissions a priority matter, as the emission of these gases from the country’s territory is small, making up less than 0.1% of global emissions. However, recognising the importance of each country’s share in reducing emissions as a valuable contribution to the mitigation of global climate change, Georgia is actively engaged in GHG emissions mitigation efforts and supports the implementation of any project and programme aimed at the reduction of GHG emissions from the territory of Georgia and putting the country on a sustainable development pathway. Georgia’s main priority in this direction is the maximum development of its own renewable resources, thus reducing the country’s dependence on imported fuel, and serving two objectives – the abatement of GHG emissions and the provision of independence in energy supply. The policy and measures to combat the inefficient use of energy resources, inherited from the Soviet period, are also important steps on the way to independence in energy and in provision of significant reduction of GHG emissions. The main mechanism regarded by the country at present as one of its priorities in the transfer of environmentally-friendly technologies and clean investments is the Kyoto Protocol’s “Clean Development Mechanism”. Considering all the above circumstances, a strategy has been prepared to provide the independence of the Georgian energy system and the reduction of GHG emissions. This strategy was developed in the framework of the preparation of Georgia’s SNC to the UNFCCC and is based on the results discussed above. The strategy is primarily focused on the energy sector (energy consumption), as it is considered by the IPCC. From the energy-consuming sectors the largest emitter of GHGs in Georgia is the transport sector, for which measures are too general and their scale not specified. More detailed and thorough examination of this sector is planned for the Third National Communication.

Nat

iona

l GH

G M

itig

atio

n S

trat

egy

(201

0-20

25)

K

ey S

trat

egic

Obj

ecti

ve

Key

Tar

get

Gro

ups

Act

ivit

y P

oten

tial

Lea

d A

genc

y O

utpu

t P

oten

tial

D

onor

s E

lect

rici

ty g

ener

atio

n se

ctor

Sh

ort-t

erm

obj

ectiv

es

M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

Ener

gy E

ffic

ienc

y C

entre

;

Indu

stria

l ent

erpr

ises

;

Priv

ate

sect

or d

ealin

g w

ith

rene

wab

le e

nerg

y;

Po

pula

tion.

GH

G

miti

gatio

n sh

ort-t

erm

st

rate

gy

impl

ies

max

imum

pr

omot

ion

of

rene

wab

le

ener

gy

usin

g th

e C

DM

po

tent

ial.

Ener

gy

savi

ng

mea

sure

s ar

e pr

edom

inan

tly i

mpl

emen

ted

by

the

popu

latio

n

M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pro

tect

ion

and

Nat

ural

Res

ourc

es;

M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

Parli

amen

t of G

eorg

ia.

In c

ase

of a

ctiv

e fa

cilit

atio

n of

the

gove

rnm

ent a

nd c

arry

ing

out o

f ta

rget

ed p

olic

y th

e co

nsum

ptio

n of

en

ergy

and

rele

vant

em

issi

ons o

f G

HG

s sho

uld

be re

duce

d by

24%

co

mpa

red

to th

e B

usin

ess A

s Usu

al

scen

ario

, and

pow

er g

ener

atio

n w

ill

be to

tally

cov

ered

by

rene

wab

le

ener

gy (h

ydro

and

win

d)

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia,

Inte

rnat

iona

l aid

pr

ogra

mm

es,

CD

M

Ene

rgy

gene

rati

on s

ecto

r 1.

Incr

ease

the

shar

e of

re

new

able

sour

ces (

win

d en

ergy

) in

ele

ctric

ity

gene

ratio

n up

to 9

% fo

r 20

25 (3

% fo

r 201

5, 6

% fo

r 20

20)

G

over

nmen

t of G

eorg

ia;

La

rge

elec

trici

ty c

onsu

mer

s.

Ado

ptio

n of

law

s and

regu

latio

ns fa

cilit

atin

g th

e im

plem

enta

tion

of w

ind

farm

s;

D

evel

opm

ent o

f CD

M P

INs a

nd P

DD

for

prio

rity

site

s with

larg

e co

nsum

ers (

Rus

tavi

, G

ori,

Poti,

Bat

umi,,

Kut

aisi

, Par

avan

i, M

ta-

Sabu

eti);

Subm

issi

on o

f PIN

s to

pote

ntia

l inv

esto

rs

and

deve

lopm

ent o

f PD

D;

R

emov

ing

all p

oten

tial b

arrie

rs to

the

inst

alla

tion

of w

ind

farm

s;

M

aint

enan

ce o

f ena

blin

g en

viro

nmen

t (in

clud

ing

CD

M a

nd o

ther

mec

hani

sms)

for

real

isat

ion

of w

ind

ener

gy p

roje

cts i

n G

eorg

ia;

Fa

cilit

atio

n of

inst

alla

tion

of m

inim

um d

810

M

W w

ind

farm

cap

acity

;

Incr

easi

ng th

e aw

aren

ess o

f pol

icy

mak

ers

and

larg

e co

nsum

ers o

f ele

ctric

ity (p

oten

tial

owne

r of w

ind

farm

s);

In

trodu

ctio

n of

ince

ntiv

es fo

r pro

mot

ion

win

d en

ergy

in G

eorg

ia.

M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

Min

istry

of

Envi

ronm

ent P

rote

ctio

n an

d N

atur

al R

esou

rces

;

Parli

amen

t of G

eorg

ia;

Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

(lar

ge

cons

umer

s of

elec

trici

ty).

M

inim

um 4

pilo

t win

d fa

rms (

tota

l in

stal

led

capa

city

120

MW

) for

the

gene

ratio

n of

win

d el

ectri

city

es

tabl

ishe

d an

d m

onito

red

by 2

015;

By

2025

inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty o

f win

d fa

rms r

each

810

MW

.

C

lean

D

evel

opm

ent

Mec

hani

sm

(CD

M)

2. In

crea

se th

e sh

are

of

smal

l HPP

s (re

new

able

s)

in e

lect

ricity

gen

erat

ion

up

to 1

4% fo

r 202

5

(ins

talla

tion

of n

ew a

nd

reha

bilit

atio

n of

exi

stin

g pl

ants

)

R

egio

nal G

over

nmen

ts;

G

over

nmen

t of G

eorg

ia;

Sm

all e

nter

pris

es (

priv

ate

sect

or) a

ctin

g in

hyd

ro e

nerg

y se

ctor

.

D

evel

opm

ent o

f CD

M P

INs a

nd P

DD

for

prio

rity

site

s: fi

nanc

ially

and

tech

nica

lly

mos

t attr

activ

e pr

ojec

ts a

re im

plem

ente

d in

itial

ly;

R

ealis

atio

n of

all

SHPP

off

ered

by

the

Min

istry

of E

nerg

y;

R

emov

ing

all p

oten

tial b

arrie

rs to

the

impl

emen

tatio

n of

SH

PPs p

roje

cts;

M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

Min

istry

of

Envi

ronm

ent P

rote

ctio

n an

d N

atur

al R

esou

rces

;

Reg

iona

l Gov

ernm

ents

;

Priv

ate

sect

or.

Sm

all h

ydro

pow

er p

lant

s are

op

erat

iona

l;

To

tal

inst

alle

d ne

w c

apac

ities

504

M

W fo

r 202

5;

Sh

are

of sm

all h

ydro

in e

lect

ricity

ge

nera

tion

reac

hes 1

4% fo

r 202

5.

CD

M, b

ilate

ral

inve

stor

s (N

orw

ay),

G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

-R

evol

ving

Fun

d fo

r Ren

ewab

les,

Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

,

M

aint

enan

ce o

f ena

blin

g en

viro

nmen

t (in

clud

ing

CD

M a

nd o

ther

mec

hani

sms)

for

impl

emen

tatio

n of

SH

PPs;

Intro

duct

ion

of in

cent

ives

syst

em.

PPP

3. In

crea

se th

e sh

are

of

larg

e H

PPs u

p to

77%

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

;

Cab

inet

of M

inis

ters

.

Fina

ncia

lly a

nd te

chni

cally

mos

t attr

activ

e pr

ojec

ts w

ith th

e lo

wes

t env

ironm

enta

l im

pact

are

impl

emen

ted

initi

ally

(Khu

doni

, N

amak

hvan

i Cas

cade

-1, N

amak

hvan

i C

asca

de-2

, Nam

akhv

ani C

asca

de-3

, Oni

C

asca

de);

A

s the

seco

nd st

ep a

ll la

rge

HPP

s off

ered

by

the

Min

istry

of E

nerg

y ar

e re

aliz

ed;

A

ll en

viro

nmen

tal i

ssue

s rel

ated

to th

e co

nstru

ctio

n an

d re

habi

litat

ion

of la

rge

pow

er

plan

ts sh

ould

be

cons

ider

ed a

nd so

lved

for a

ll la

rge

HPP

s;

Fa

cilit

atin

g th

e cr

eatio

n of

ele

ctric

ene

rgy

regi

onal

mar

ket.

M

inis

try o

f Ene

rgy;

Min

istry

of

Envi

ronm

ent P

rote

ctio

n an

d N

atur

al R

esou

rces

.

La

rge

hydr

o po

wer

pla

nts

oper

atio

nal;

Tota

l in

stal

led

capa

city

1,4

26 M

W

for 2

025;

Shar

e of

larg

e H

PP in

ele

ctric

ity

gene

ratio

n 77

% fo

r 202

5.

EBR

D, W

B,

Bila

tera

l don

ors,

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia (i

n-ki

nd)

F

uel s

wit

chin

g in

hea

t en

ergy

dem

and

4.In

crea

se th

e sh

are

of

geot

herm

al e

nerg

y up

to

2% in

hea

t dem

and

sect

or

(pop

ulat

ion,

agr

icul

ture

and

to

uris

m)

U

rban

pop

ulat

ion

;

Loca

l mun

icip

aliti

es.

R

emov

ing

all p

oten

tial b

arrie

rs to

the

inst

alla

tion

of g

eoth

erm

al h

eat a

nd h

ot w

ater

su

pply

syst

ems;

Cre

atio

n of

ena

blin

g en

viro

nmen

t (in

clud

ing

CD

M a

nd o

ther

mec

hani

sms)

for m

axim

um

utili

zatio

n of

geo

ther

mal

ene

rgy

in G

eorg

ia;

In

trodu

ctio

n of

ince

ntiv

es fo

r pro

mot

ion

the

utili

zatio

n of

geo

ther

mal

ene

rgy;

Prep

arat

ion

of P

INs f

or h

eat a

nd h

ot w

ater

su

pply

in T

bilis

i, Zu

gdid

i, Po

ti an

d Ts

kaltu

bo.

M

unic

ipal

ities

of c

ities

w

ith g

eoth

erm

al h

eat

supp

ly;

M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pro

tect

ion

and

Nat

ural

Res

ourc

es;

Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

act

ing

in

heat

supp

ly sp

here

.

10

0,00

0 re

side

nts o

f Tbi

lisi

supp

lied

with

geo

ther

mal

hea

t and

ho

t wat

er;

Zu

gdid

i (po

pula

tion,

agr

icul

ture

);

Poti

(pop

ulat

ion)

;

Tska

ltubo

(pop

ulat

ion,

tour

ism

);

Sena

ki-M

endj

i (po

pula

tion,

to

uris

m);

To

tal f

or p

opul

atio

n 28

2,6

GW

h to

20

25;

To

tal f

or a

gric

ultu

re 1

327.

0 G

Wh

to 2

025;

Tota

l for

tour

ism

sect

or 2

34.7

GW

h to

202

5.

U

ND

P, G

EF,

Rev

olvi

ng F

und

for R

enew

able

En

ergy

es

tabl

ishe

d in

G

eorg

ia,

CD

M

5.10

0% o

f hou

seho

lds i

n A

djar

a re

gion

will

be

supp

lied

by so

lar h

eate

rs

of w

ater

, aim

ed a

t m

axim

um u

se o

f sol

ar

ener

gy in

hot

wat

er su

pply

m

akin

g 0.

7% o

f cou

ntry

’s

tota

l ene

rgy

dem

and

D

epar

tmen

t of t

ouris

m;

Po

pula

tion

of A

djar

a;

Pr

ivat

e ho

tels

.

In

trodu

ctio

n of

ince

ntiv

es fo

r the

con

sum

ers

of so

lar e

nerg

y;

Pr

epar

atio

n of

PIN

s for

hot

wat

er su

pply

of

hote

ls (p

ilot p

roje

cts h

avin

g th

e be

st

tech

nica

l and

eco

nom

ic p

aram

eter

s) i

n B

atum

i and

Kob

ulet

i;

Aw

aren

ess r

aisi

ng a

mon

g ho

tel o

wne

rs a

nd

high

mou

ntai

n ho

useh

olds

on

the

adva

ntag

e of

sola

r ene

rgy

use.

Le

adin

g N

GO

s in

(sol

ar e

nerg

y)

appl

icat

ion

field

;

Ow

ners

of h

otel

s in

Bat

umi a

nd K

obul

eti.

B

uild

ings

in B

atum

i and

Kob

ulet

i (p

rimar

ily h

otel

s) su

pplie

d w

ith

sola

r ene

rgy

gene

rate

d ho

t wat

er

(pilo

t pha

se);

H

ouse

hold

s of h

igh

mou

ntai

nous

vi

llage

s sup

plie

d w

ith h

ot w

ater

;

Livi

ng c

ondi

tions

of p

opul

atio

n in

A

djar

a im

prov

ed.

D

iffer

ent g

rant

s:

UN

DP,

USA

ID

CD

M

Hot

el o

wne

rs

(priv

ate

sect

or)

6.In

crea

se th

e sh

are

of

biom

ass f

uel i

n he

at

R

ural

pop

ulat

ion;

Gov

ernm

ent o

f Geo

rgia

.

Ado

ptio

n of

legi

slat

ion

faci

litat

ing

the

incr

ease

of b

iom

ass s

hare

in h

eat (

cook

ing)

Loca

l gov

ernm

ent;

Lo

cal N

GO

s;

Pl

anta

tions

of e

nerg

y fo

rest

s es

tabl

ishe

d in

Ded

oplis

tska

ro

Loc

al

mun

icip

aliti

es,

supp

ly se

ctor

en

ergy

supp

ly;

Id

entif

icat

ion

of th

e ap

prop

riate

terr

itorie

s fo

r pla

ntin

g ne

w e

nerg

y fo

rest

s;

Id

entif

icat

ion

of p

oten

tial e

nerg

y fo

rest

s am

ongs

t the

exi

stin

g on

es a

nd p

repa

ratio

n of

pr

opos

als f

or th

eir r

ehab

ilita

tion

and

man

agem

ent;.

Reh

abili

tatio

n of

exi

stin

g (n

atur

al) e

nerg

y fo

rest

s and

impr

ovem

ent m

anag

emen

t co

mpo

nent

;

Esta

blis

hmen

t of P

PP (P

ublic

Priv

ate

Partn

ersh

ip) i

n fu

el-w

ood

supp

ly se

ctor

;

Esta

blis

hmen

t of p

lant

atio

n fo

rest

est

ates

us

ing

the

aban

done

d, e

rode

d la

nds (

see

prop

osal

for 4

0 ha

pla

ntat

ion

of b

io-e

nerg

y fo

rest

);

Pilo

ting

the

pelle

t/briq

uette

indu

stry

in

Geo

rgia

.

M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t and

N

atio

nal R

esou

rces

;

Parli

amen

t of G

eorg

ia ;

D

epar

tmen

t of

Fore

stry

;

Priv

ate

sect

or.

regi

on (p

ilot 4

0 ha

);

Loca

l priv

ate

sect

or/fa

rmer

s or

gani

sed

PPP

in fi

re-w

ood

prod

uctio

n an

d su

pply

sect

or;

Pe

llet/b

rique

tte p

lant

inst

alle

d in

W

est G

eorg

ia (Z

ugdi

di re

gion

);

Loca

l pop

ulat

ion

supp

lied

by

biom

ass f

uel p

artic

ular

ly in

the

rem

ote

regi

ons (

far f

rom

fore

sted

ar

eas o

r set

tled

near

the

prot

ecte

d te

rrito

ries)

and

faci

ng th

e en

ergy

cr

isis

.

GEF

, CD

M,

PPP

GTZ

, G

over

nmen

t of

G

erm

any

Hea

t an

d el

ectr

icit

y co

nsum

ptio

n (e

nerg

y ef

fici

ency

mea

sure

s)

7.In

crea

se th

e en

ergy

ef

ficie

ncy

in e

lect

ricity

co

nsum

ptio

n se

ctor

by

12

% f

or 2

025

(pop

ulat

ion)

R

esid

ents

;

Ener

gy d

istri

butio

n sy

stem

s.

Dis

sem

inat

ion

of e

nerg

y-ef

ficie

nt b

ulbs

am

ong

80%

of r

esid

ents

for 2

025

(am

ong

50%

for 2

020)

;

Dis

sem

inat

ion

of e

nerg

y ef

ficie

nt

refr

iger

ator

s am

ong

80%

of r

esid

ents

for

2025

(50%

for 2

020)

;

Red

uctio

n of

com

mer

cial

loss

es u

p to

16.

1%

by “

Tela

si”,

23.

7% b

y “E

nerg

opro

” (th

ese

are

pow

er p

rovi

der c

ompa

nies

);

Dev

elop

men

t and

impl

emen

tatio

n of

go

vern

men

tal p

rogr

amm

es o

n en

ergy

ef

ficie

ncy

labe

ling;

Intro

duct

ion

of in

cent

ives

for e

nerg

y ef

ficie

ncy.

Sm

all N

GO

s;

D

iffer

ent g

rant

pr

ogra

mm

es;

In

divi

dual

s.

80

% o

f hou

seho

lds h

ave

ener

gy-

effic

ient

bul

bs;

80

% o

f res

iden

ts h

ave

ener

gy

effic

ient

refr

iger

ator

s;

70

% o

f hou

seho

lds h

ave

insu

late

d w

indo

ws a

nd d

oors

;

Com

mer

cial

loss

es o

f “Te

lasi

” an

d “E

nerg

opro

” re

duce

d by

16.

1 an

d 23

.7%

acc

ordi

ngly

.

CD

M

(pro

gram

mat

ic

appr

oach

), EB

RD

, G

EF

8.In

crea

se th

e en

ergy

ef

ficie

ncy

(ele

ctric

ity +

ot

her e

nerg

y so

urce

s) a

t la

rge

(20%

) and

med

ium

si

ze (1

4%) e

nter

pris

es

R

epre

sent

ativ

es o

f ene

rgy

syst

em (g

ener

atio

n,

dist

ribut

ion)

;

Larg

e an

d sm

all e

nter

pris

es.

C

arry

ing

out e

nerg

y au

dit o

f lar

ge a

nd sm

all

ente

rpris

es (g

rant

syst

em);

Pr

epar

atio

n of

reco

mm

enda

tions

on

ener

gy

effic

ienc

y m

easu

res f

or e

ach

ente

rpris

e;

Es

tabl

ishm

ent o

f ESC

O a

nd e

nerg

y ef

ficie

ncy

fund

;

Ass

essm

ent a

nd in

trodu

ctio

n of

ene

rgy;

effic

ienc

y ta

rget

and

rele

vant

regu

latio

ns.

La

rge

and

med

ium

en

terp

rises

;

ESC

Os;

Min

istry

of E

nerg

y.

La

rge

and

smal

l ent

erpr

ises

in

volv

ed in

ene

rgy

effic

ienc

y pr

ogra

mm

es;

En

ergy

con

sum

ptio

n by

larg

e an

d sm

all e

nter

pris

es re

duce

d in

tota

l by

19%

.

CD

M, E

BR

D,

ESC

O

9.In

crea

se th

e en

ergy

ef

ficie

ncy

in h

eat

gene

ratio

n an

d

R

esid

entia

l sec

tor;

R

ural

pop

ulat

ion

of v

illag

es;

N

atur

al g

as d

istri

butio

n

Im

plem

enta

tion

of p

rogr

amm

es fa

cilit

atin

g th

e in

crea

se o

f num

ber o

f hou

seho

lds h

avin

g in

sula

ted

win

dow

s and

doo

rs;

Fo

r 202

5 th

e 70

% o

f hou

seho

lds

have

ene

rgy

insu

late

d w

indo

ws a

nd

door

s (40

% fo

r 202

0);

CD

M, W

B,

EBR

D, E

SCO

cons

umpt

ion

sect

or b

y 18

%

for

202

5 co

mpa

nies

;

Con

stru

ctio

n co

mpa

nies

.

Prep

arat

ion

and

impl

emen

tatio

n of

go

vern

men

tal a

nd o

ther

pro

gram

mes

for

dist

ribut

ion

of e

ffic

ient

stov

es a

nd b

oile

rs

amon

gst t

he b

iom

ass c

onsu

mer

s in

villa

ges;

Prep

arat

ion

of P

INs a

nd P

DD

s for

gas

leak

re

duct

ion

from

dis

tribu

tion

syst

ems;

Rai

sing

aw

aren

ess o

n en

ergy

eff

icie

ncy

amon

g bi

omas

s con

sum

ers;

Rai

sing

aw

aren

ess o

n C

DM

per

spec

tive

amon

gst g

as d

istri

buto

rs.

Ef

ficie

nt w

ood

stov

es d

isse

min

ated

am

ongs

t the

bio

mas

s con

sum

ers.

(20%

of h

ouse

hold

s hav

e ef

ficie

nt

woo

d st

oves

for 2

020

and

50%

for

2025

);

Com

mer

cial

loss

es re

duce

d do

wn

to 3

0% b

y ga

s dis

tribu

tion

com

pani

es.

10.R

educ

e fu

el

cons

umpt

ion

in tr

ansp

ort

sect

or a

nd in

crea

se th

e sh

are

of g

as fu

eled

car

s (T

his s

ecto

r is m

ainl

y co

nsid

ered

in lo

ng-te

rm

pers

pect

ive)

M

unic

ipal

ities

of b

ig c

ities

Priv

ate

sect

or

C

arry

ing

out f

easi

bilit

y st

udie

s for

as

sess

men

t the

pot

entia

l way

s of o

ptim

isat

ion

of c

ity tr

ansp

orta

tion

syst

em (T

bilis

i, K

utai

si,

Bat

umi,

Rus

tavi

, etc

);

Dev

elop

men

t of p

ortfo

lio o

f re

com

men

datio

ns fo

r opt

imis

atio

n of

city

tra

nspo

rtatio

n sy

stem

and

dec

reas

e in

fuel

co

nsum

ptio

n;

D

evel

opm

ent o

f pac

kage

of

reco

mm

enda

tions

for

redu

ctio

n of

ele

ctric

ity

cons

umpt

ion

by m

etro

and

railw

ay;

D

evel

opm

ent a

nd im

plem

enta

tion

of

prog

ram

mes

for f

acili

tatin

g th

e fu

el sw

itch-

on (f

rom

die

sel t

o LP

G) p

roce

ss e

nsur

ing

at

the

sam

e tim

e hi

gh sa

fety

mea

sure

s;

Fa

cilit

ate

rese

arch

wor

ks fo

r pro

duci

ng th

e bi

o-fu

el in

Geo

rgia

.

M

unic

ipal

ities

of b

ig

citie

s;

Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

act

ing

in

LPG

fuel

ing

in ro

ad

trans

port

sect

or;

“I

nstit

ute

of Is

otop

es”.

El

ectri

city

con

sum

ptio

n by

met

ro

and

railw

ay re

duce

d;

C

ity tr

ansp

ort s

yste

m o

ptim

ised

;

Poss

ibili

ties o

f bio

-fue

l pro

duct

ion

in G

eorg

ia e

valu

ated

.

CD

M, E

BR

D,

Gov

ernm

ent o

f G

eorg

ia

Long

-term

stra

tegy

Min

istry

of E

nerg

y

Min

istry

of E

nviro

nmen

t Pr

otec

tion

and

Nat

ural

R

esou

rces

Min

istry

of A

gric

ultu

re

D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

port

M

unic

ipal

ities

of b

ig c

ities

In

the

long

-run

(a

fter

2025

, an

d po

ssib

ly

earli

er)

one

of t

he p

riorit

ies

shou

ld b

e th

e in

crea

se i

n bi

omas

s (b

ioen

ergy

) pr

oduc

tion

in

fore

st-p

oor

regi

ons

of G

eorg

ia,

trans

port

and

heat

-sup

ply

sect

ors

shou

ld b

e m

ore

activ

ely

invo

lved

in

m

itiga

ting

GH

G

emis

sion

s. C

ount

ry’s

eco

nom

y in

gen

eral

is tr

ansf

erre

d to

su

stai

nabl

e de

velo

pmen

t prin

cipl

e

M

inis

try o

f En

viro

nmen

t Pro

tect

ion

and

Nat

ural

Res

ourc

es,

Hyd

rom

eteo

rolo

gy a

nd

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

Adm

inis

tratio

n

Min

istry

of E

nerg

y

Min

istry

of A

gric

ultu

re

G

over

nmen

t of

Geo

rgia

 

 

198

5.2. Clean Development Mechanism in Georgia In 1999 the Parliament of Georgia ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Since ratification, activities in Georgia have been ongoing in a number of directions: local capacity-building to provide the strategy of full-scale activation of the CDM, contacts with donors as well as the preparation of specific projects and of national procedures. To solve these problems develop CDM potential, the country has requested assistance from international donors and the developed countries. In 2002, ICF Kaiser, in the framework of a World Bank-financed project carried out the first international study on the potential for Georgia’s participation in the CDM, focusing on the forestry sector. In this survey, in particular, it was suggested that to provide efficient participation of the country in the CDM process it is necessary to create a Designated National Authority (DNA). This recommendation promoted the appointment of such an entity in Georgia – in 2003 according to the CDM Rules and Procedures the National Agency on Climate Change was appointed as a DNA. In January 2005, according to a new government decree on the DNA, the functions of this authority were handed over to the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources. In November 2004 a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the government of Georgia (Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources) and the government of Denmark (Ministry of Environment) on co-operation in implementing CDM projects. In the framework of this Memorandum several proposals were selected aimed at the mitigation of GHG emissions. In 2004-2006 the EuropeAid (TACIS) project “Technical Assistance to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova with respect to Global Climate Change Commitments” was implemented in Georgia. In the context of this project local capacity was created to prepare and approve CDM projects. Very serious work was undertaken with potential private sector actors. The National Board on the CDM was created to assess proposed projects according to sustainable development criteria and to approve them before submission to the international registration. For the Georgian participants in the projects Georgian versions of PIN and PDD forms were prepared as well as guidelines for the preparation of CDM projects. At the present time only one project from Georgia has been registered by the CDM Executive Board, which was prepared in co-operation with the Japanese company “Shimidsu Corporation” and concerns methane recovery from landfills and its combustion. In co-operation with the Norwegian enterprises “Norsk Energy” and “Econ”, and the Georgian Energy Efficiency Centre the project “Clean Development Mechanism – a way to the development of industry and alleviation of poverty in the South Caucasus” was implemented. The goal of the project was the strengthening of state and/or private industrial sectors in the Caucasus and their preparation for active participation in carbon markets and for the application of Kyoto mechanisms. This project consisted of four phases, which included the following elements: a training programme to develop CDM projects; elaboration of a potential projects list and selection of priority projects; preparation of PINs for the selected projects; submission of detailed documents to potential investors and financial institutions; preparation of PDDs for the selected projects.

 

 

199

The list and the status of projects currently under consideration in Georgia is given in the table below:

Database of ongoing CDM projects in Georgia

Pro

ject

ID

#

Pro

ject

tit

le

(PD

D)

Pro

ject

p

arti

cip

ants

Sec

tor

Pro

ject

sta

tus

Met

hod

olog

y #

Est

imat

ed

annu

al

redu

ctio

ns

in

tota

l CO

2-eq

0001 Landfill Gas Capture and Power Generation Project in Tbilisi

Government of Japan/ Tbilisi City Municipality

Energy industries (renewable-/non-

renewable sources)

Registered AMS-I.D, ACM0001

33,000

0002 Refurbishment of Enguri Hydro Power Plant

Engurhesi Ltd./ EBRD

Energy industries (renewable-/non-

renewable sources)

Validated ACM002 1,788,000

0003 Leak Reduction in Above Ground Gas Distribution Equipment in the KazTransgaz-Tbilisi Gas Distribution System- Tbilisi, Georgia

“KazTransGas - Tbilisi”/ Climate Change Capital Fund II s.a.r.l.

F Energy/ Fugitive emission from fuels

Validated AM0023 3,795,700

0004 Georgia Small Hydro Rehabilitation Project, Number 1

Energy Efficiency Centre Georgia (Bundling agency)/ International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) as the Trustee of the Community Development Carbon Fund

Energy industries (renewable-/non-

renewable sources)

Validated AMS-I.D 1,275

0005 Georgia Small Hydro Rehabilitation Project, Number 2

Energy Efficiency Centre Georgia (Bundling agency)/ International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) as the Trustee of the Community Development Carbon Fund

Energy industries (renewable-/non-

renewable sources)

Validated AMS-I.D 18,500

0006 Guar Small Hydropower Project

Energo Aragvi Ltd/ Kommunalkredit Public Consulting GmbH (Austria)

Energy industries (renewable-/non-

renewable sources)

Validated AMS-I.D 495,596

0007 Rehabilitation of the unit 2 of the Vertices Hydro power plant

Vertices 2005 Ltd./ Unilateral

Energy industries (renewable-/non-

renewable sources)

Feasibility AMS-I.D

0008 Wind Farm “Rustavi”

“Energy Invest” (Private company, project host), “Karenergo” Ltd (NPO, project advisor)

Energy PIN ACM0002 19,705

0009 Wind Farm “Skra”

“Heidelberg Cement - Georgia” (Private company, project host), “Karenergo”

Energy PIN ACM0002 22,267

 

 

200

Ltd (NPO, project advisor)

0010 Wind Farm “Poti”

“Port of Poti” (Private company, project host), “Karenergo” Ltd (NPO, project advisor)

Energy PIN ACM0002 9,852

0011 Wind Farm “Batumi”

“Batumi Airport” (Private company, project host), Batumi Municipality (project owner), “Karenergo” Ltd (NPO, project advisor)

Energy PIN ACM0002 29,558

Project proposals to mitigate GHG emissions Four project idea notes have been prepared within the SNC for CDM consideration as a part of Georgia’s GHGs mitigation strategy. All of them consider the installation of wind farms with maximum capacity 30 MW. Four different sites (Rustavi, Skra, Poti, Batumi), located nearby the large consumers of electricity, were selected for pilot projects. One of them “Rustavi” wind farm is presented here as a sample of these proposals. (A-11) - Wind farm “Rustavi” Project objective: Electricity generation and supply to the grid aimed at reducing energy deficiency, especially in winter, as well as the partial substitution of fuel-based power with wind-generated energy. Project participants: “Heidelberg Cement Georgia” (Private company, potential participant), “Karenergo” Ltd (NGO, project advisor) Problem: Georgia’s need for electricity is constantly increasing. Government policy for the development of the Energy sector will increase the gas-turbines installations, along with a maximum utilisation of wind energy. However, no wind turbines have been installed in Georgia so far. As a result, the country more and more is becoming dependent on imported fossil fuel. The barriers to utilisation of wind energy in Georgia include:

- There is no regulation or incentive to make the grid less fossil fuel-dependent or requesting an increase in the share of renewables;

- Project implementation requires a large amount of initial investment (about EUR 1 million per 1 MW capacity of wind turbines);

- Risk is very high because it is a totally new technology for Georgia; no appropriate expertise or infrastructure has been developed so far.

Activities to be implemented in the project framework: This project activity includes installation of a wind farm with 30 MW capacity (10 turbines of 3 MW each), providing 60 GWh electricity annually. The plant load factor is assessed as 26% The project owner, being one of the largest energy-users in Georgia, will supply the generated 60 GWh electricity annually to the grid, and get from the grid the same amount for its own needs. Electricity will be delivered to the Georgian grid through a transmission line, to the existing 110 kV sub-station located near the project site.

 

 

201

The chosen wind farm site is situated on the ridge near the city of Rustavi, being one of the windiest places in East Georgia. Rustavi is one of the most industrialised cities in Georgia, consuming a huge amount of energy for its enterprises. Project cost: Total project cost, including projection and construction works, purchase and transportation of turbines, their installation and launching, is EUR 26.9 million, Project emissions: Estimated annual abatement of greenhouse gases equals 19,705 t CO2/yr at a load factor equal to 22%. References:

1. LEAP – Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system, www.energycommunity.org; 2. Energy Efficient Potential in Georgia and Policy Options of Its Utilization, Rural Energy

Program, World Experience for Georgia, 2007, www.weg.ge; 3. Renewable Energy Potential in Georgia and Policy Options of Its Utilization, Rural

Energy Program, World Experience for Georgia, 2007, www.weg.ge; 4. Energy Balance of Power Sector of Georgia: Part 2: Balances from 1960 to 2005, USAID,

Advisory Assistance to the Ministry of Energy of Georgia, 2006; 5. Energy Balance of Georgia 2001, State Department of Statistics of Georgia; 6. Web page of Ministry of Energy of Georgia, www.minenergy.gov.ge; 7. “A Natural Gas Strategy for Georgia: Part 2: Economic and Geopolitical Context”,

USAID, Advisory Assistance to the Ministry of Energy of Georgia, 2006; 8. Debt-for-Environment Swap in Georgia: Pre-Feasibility Study and Institutional Options,

OECD, 2006 (in Georgian); 9. Main data and directions for 2009-2012, Georgian government, 2008; 10. Main data and directions for 2008-2011, Georgian government, 2007; 11. The statement of the Parliament of Georgia on “Main Directions of National Policy in

Energy Sector”, 2006; 12. Ghanaian R, Toomey J.G, Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways

in California, Energy Policy, 33 (2005), 1117–1142.

 

 

202

Chapter 6 Other Information

6.1 Climate change research and systematic observation Systematic meteorological observations in Georgia started in 1844, and hydrological observations in 1905. The observational network both quantitatively and qualitatively reached its peak in the 1980s, when the whole territory of the country was covered by observations, including high mountains and difficult-to-access regions. Both standard and specialised (aerological, radar, aviation and marine) observations were being carried out. From the beginning of the 1990s these observation systems have disintegrated. The number of observation sites and measured parameters has decreased essentially. The costly aerological and radar observations were ceased entirely, and standard measuring devices became obsolete and outdated. At present, systematic hydrometeorological observations are being conducted at about 40 stations and posts. The Tbilisi meteorological station is included in the GCOS system. With the aim of rehabilitating the hydrometeorological observation network, measures are being taken to get assistance from relevant international bodies and donor countries. In particular: With the assistance of the WMO, modern measuring devices have been installed at the

Tbilisi weather station to carry out observations on major climate elements. With the assistance of USAID, automatic measuring devices have been mounted on three

hydrological posts at Transboundary Rivers (Kura, Alazani and Debeda). The river discharge measuring device operating on the Doppler Effect is also supplied to the network.

With the assistance of Finnish Government, water level automatic measuring devices are being installed at seven hydrological posts in the Rioni River basin. The discharge measuring Doppler device was purchased in the framework of this project.

With the assistance of the Canadian Government, water level and precipitation measuring automatic gauges have been installed at four hydrological posts in the mountain region of West Georgia.

At the same time the installation of the following appliances is planned to be undertaken in 2009, financed by the state: 2 units to carry out aerological observations; 2 automatic units to conduct aviation meteorological observation; 10 automatic meteorological stations; 10 automatic raingauges. These automatic meteorological observation units are to be predominantly mounted in high mountains and difficult-to-access regions. Negotiations are underway with the Japanese on assistance in the purchase and installation of two meteorological radar units (Tbilisi and Poti) and one high resolution satellite imagery reception unit. As for scientific research, in the past 10 years since the preparation of the INC a number of research projects have been implemented by Georgian research institutions and scientific organisations. The research was mainly conducted at the Institutes of Hydrometeorology,

 

 

203

Geography and Geophysics, the High Technology National Center and I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University. The research dealt with the problems of the impact of global warming on the dynamics of atmospheric circulation, on changes in surface and underground water resources, as well as in the frequency of floods, the survey of climate change in different regions in Georgia, the assessment of climate change impacts on the Black Sea coastal zone, the recreational-climatic division by regions of the Georgian territory, the development of an energy balance model of climate change, etc. Research on the modelling of climate change impacts on glacier dynamics and river run-off is underway in the framework of the relevant regional projects. A significant share in financing the scientific research, along with the government of Georgia, is made by international organisations – UNDP, EU, INTAS and others. In the period 2000-2008, total expenditures on carrying out scientific research amounted to more than USD 1.57 million. In parallel to scientific research, proper attention was paid to the conduct of applied activities which along with the government of Georgia were financially supported by international donors as well. The main objective of these activities is the development of forests partly in the role of CO2 sink, the promotion of the implementation of UN Conventions on Climate Change, Biodiversity and to Combat Desertification, the development of small hydro power, the application of clean energy technologies in the mountain regions of Georgia, assistance to enabling activities for the transfer of new technologies to the country, the raising of energy efficiency in heat and hot water municipal systems in large cities of Georgia, the promotion of renewable energy resources for local energy supply, the implementation of the Kharagauli forestry pilot project. A number of relatively small projects have been implemented on raising public awareness of the climate change problem and on the training of local experts in the use of renewable energy. These activities were undertaken mainly by the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia. A major share in financing the activities was made by the World Bank, GEF and UNDP, the governments of Georgia, the United States, the Netherlands and Italy. Along with them a number of non-governmental and private funds participated. Total expenses of carrying out these activities through 2000-2008 came to USD 35.730 million. During this time period, along with the projects mentioned above, Georgia took part in implementing a number of regional projects. Among them are to be mentioned the projects on the reduction of transboundary degradation in the Kura-Aras basin, on the Water Problem in South Caucasus and Moldova, on the improvement of the GHG inventory, on the development of environment networks and information systems, on the monitoring of floods, on raising energy efficiency in different sectors of the economy and on the sustainable development of mountain regions. Participants from Georgia in implementing these projects were the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources, the Ministry of Energy, the National Environmental Agency, the Georgian Energy Efficiency Centre, the Caucasian Regional Environmental Centre (REC) and others. The financing of the projects listed above for the mentioned time period amounted to USD 3.930 million. The greatest shares were contributed by the World Bank, the GEF, and the governments of Germany, Norway, the United States, France and Georgia.

 

 

204

6.2. Education, training and public awareness In view of the dimensions of problems related to global warming, climate change topics, in our opinion, should be studied from the early years in secondary schools, with items being widened as students get older. This would make it easier for the population to actively participate in some climate-change related activities, and for decision-makers to win support for measures to be carried out in this area. Following on from this principle, and in accordance with Article 6 of the UNFCCC, recommendations to integrate climate-change related issues in the educational programmes of secondary and high schools, special curricula were worked out within the SNC. The public awareness strategy for 2009-2012 has been prepared. As a result of all public awareness raising activities, a manual for decision-makers has been prepared and published, in which the principles of sustainable development and the UNFCCC are discussed along with the possibilities of their application to the Georgian economy.

Str

ateg

ic A

ctio

n P

lan

for

Im

ple

men

tati

on o

f A

rtic

le 6

(ed

uca

tion

, tra

inin

g an

d p

ub

lic

awar

enes

s) o

f th

e U

NF

CC

C (

2009

-201

2)

Key

str

ateg

ic o

bje

ctiv

e K

ey t

arge

t gr

oup

s A

ctiv

itie

s P

oten

tial

lead

en

tity

O

utp

ut

Pot

enti

al d

onor

p

arti

es

Shor

t-ter

m o

bjec

tives

MoE

;

MoE

dS;

Sc

hool

s and

In

stitu

tes.

The

shor

t-ter

m st

rate

gy is

mai

nly

orie

nted

tow

ards

the

facu

ltativ

e te

achi

ng o

f clim

ate

chan

ge is

sues

in th

e ed

ucat

ion

syst

em (s

choo

ls a

nd u

nive

rsiti

es).

At t

he sa

me

time

polic

y-m

aker

s are

info

rmed

as m

uch

as p

ossi

ble

M

oE;

M

oEdS

.

C

limat

e ch

ange

pro

blem

s are

bei

ng le

arne

d in

sc

hool

s and

uni

vers

ities

;

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

impa

ct a

ccou

nted

for i

n de

cisi

on-m

akin

g pr

oces

s.

Gov

ernm

ent

of G

eorg

ia,

Inte

rnat

iona

l do

nors

ED

UC

AT

ION

1.

Mai

nstre

am c

limat

e ch

ange

issu

es in

to

curr

icul

a

S

tude

nts f

rom

se

cond

ary

and

high

sc

hool

s, te

ache

rs

and

lect

urer

s.

In

itiat

ion

of th

e co

nsul

tatio

ns w

ith th

e M

inis

try o

f Ed

ucat

ion

on

inte

grat

ion

of c

limat

e ch

ange

issu

es in

to

curr

icul

a;

D

evel

opm

ent o

f tut

oria

l and

met

hodi

cal m

ater

ials

for

teac

hers

and

lect

urer

s;

D

evel

opm

ent o

f sec

onda

ry sc

hool

- man

uals

and

lect

ures

fo

r hig

h sc

hool

s;

D

evel

opm

ent &

pro

curin

g of

vis

ual e

duca

tion

mat

eria

ls

on c

limat

e ch

ange

;

Prep

arat

ion

of c

limat

e ch

ange

man

uals

orie

nted

on

the

refo

rmed

edu

catio

n sy

stem

.

M

oE;

M

oEdS

;

Uni

vers

ities

.

G

uide

lines

for i

nteg

ratio

n of

CC

into

cur

ricul

a de

velo

ped;

Rev

ised

pro

gram

mes

and

sylla

buse

s in

plac

e;

M

etho

dica

l boo

ks fo

r tea

cher

s and

lect

ures

;

Scho

ol-o

rient

ed m

anua

ls (f

or d

iffer

ent l

evel

s),

high

scho

ol o

rient

ed m

anua

ls fo

r diff

eren

t pr

ofile

s;

M

ater

ials

dev

elop

ed &

equ

ipm

ent p

rocu

red;

Clim

ate

Cha

nge

Cab

inet

s with

acc

ess t

o in

tern

et a

nd v

isua

l mat

eria

ls p

rovi

ded;

New

pro

gram

mes

con

tain

ing

clim

ate

chan

ge

issu

es p

repa

red;

New

pro

gram

mes

con

tain

ing

clim

ate

chan

ge

issu

es a

dopt

ed in

scho

ols;

Prog

ram

mes

con

tain

ing

the

clim

ate

chan

ge

issu

es im

plem

ente

d at

scho

ols a

nd

univ

ersi

ties.

GoG

, UN

EP,

Third

Nat

iona

l C

omm

unic

atio

n of

Geo

rgia

(T

NC

)

TR

AIN

ING

2.

Initi

ate

and

prom

ot

train

ing

of sc

ient

ific,

te

chni

cal a

nd m

anag

eria

l pe

rson

nel i

n o

rder

to

faci

litat

e im

plem

enta

tion

of A

rticl

e 6

activ

ities

of

UN

FCC

C

• Tr

aine

rs;

• Te

ache

rs;

• Le

ctur

ers;

•

Prof

essi

onal

s;

• M

anag

ers;

•

Exte

nsio

n.

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

the

mat

eria

ls a

nd tr

aini

ng th

e tra

iner

s;

• Im

plem

enta

tion

met

hodi

cal g

uide

lines

/man

uals

for

scho

ol te

ache

rs;

• O

rgan

isat

ion

of a

nnua

l tra

inin

g co

urse

s for

scho

ol

teac

hers

; •

Impl

emen

tatio

n of

met

hodi

cal g

uide

lines

/ man

uals

fo

r hig

h sc

hool

pro

fess

ors/

lect

urer

s;

• O

rgan

izat

ion

of a

nnua

l tra

inin

g co

urse

s for

hig

h sc

hool

lect

urer

s;

• D

evel

opm

ent &

impl

emen

tatio

n of

targ

eted

& ta

ilor-

m

ade

prof

essi

onal

cou

rses

on

clim

ate

chan

ge.

• M

oE;

• M

oEds

; •

Uni

vers

ities

; •

NG

Os.

• M

ater

ials

pre

pare

d;

• M

in 1

0 tra

iner

s are

trai

ned;

•

Targ

eted

trai

ning

cou

rses

dev

elop

ed a

nd

teac

hers

trai

ned;

•

Targ

eted

trai

ning

cou

rses

dev

elop

ed a

nd

lect

urer

s tra

ined

; •

Sche

dule

of t

arge

ted

wor

ksho

ps d

evel

oped

fo

r 200

9-20

12.

GoG

, TN

C,

Ren

ewab

le

Ener

gy

Proj

ect

Pu

blic

aw

aren

ess

pub

lic p

arti

cip

atio

n a

nd p

ub

lic a

cces

s to

info

rmat

ion

3. S

treng

then

the

parti

cipa

tion

of d

iffer

ent

targ

et g

roup

s and

st

akeh

olde

rs in

CC

pr

oces

s

• Po

licy

mak

ers;

•

Man

ager

s;

• Pr

ofes

sion

als;

•

Med

ia;

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

; •

Exte

nsio

n st

aff;

• G

ener

al p

ublic

.

• O

rgan

isin

g cl

imat

e ch

ange

aw

aren

ess s

emin

ars f

or

polic

y m

aker

s and

Gov

ernm

ent m

embe

rs;

• Fa

cilit

atio

n of

the

parti

cipa

tion

of p

olic

y-m

aker

s at

natio

nal a

nd in

tern

atio

nal c

onfe

renc

es a

nd m

eetin

gs;

• In

form

ing

the

repr

esen

tativ

es o

f int

erna

tiona

l or

gani

zatio

ns in

Geo

rgia

on

clim

ate

chan

ge im

pact

an

d ne

eds f

or a

dapt

atio

n an

d m

itiga

tion

activ

ities

; •

Ensu

ring

the

parti

cipa

tion

of p

rivat

e se

vtor

man

ager

s at

nat

iona

l and

inte

rnat

iona

l con

fere

nces

and

se

min

ars;

•

Faci

litat

ion

of th

e pa

rtici

patio

n of

pro

fess

iona

ls a

t re

gion

al a

nd in

tern

atio

nal w

orks

hops

and

sem

inar

s;

• En

surin

g th

e pa

rtici

patio

n of

med

ia in

nat

iona

l and

in

tern

atio

nal c

limat

e ch

ange

pub

lic a

war

enes

s ca

mpa

igns

; •

Org

anis

ing

clim

ate

chan

ge p

ublic

aw

aren

ess

wor

ksho

ps o

r brie

fings

for t

arge

t gro

ups

and

in

terp

retin

g ta

rget

rela

ted

prob

lem

s;

• En

surin

g th

e w

ide

invo

lvem

ent o

f sta

keho

lder

gr

oups

in c

limat

e ch

ange

aw

aren

ess c

ampa

igns

; •

Ensu

ring

the

parti

cipa

tion

of n

atio

nal e

xper

ts a

t sh

ort-c

ours

es o

n co

mm

unic

atin

g en

viro

nmen

tal

educ

atio

n m

essa

ges i

nclu

ding

clim

ate

chan

ge re

late

d co

nven

tion;

Supp

ortin

g th

e p

ublic

par

ticip

atio

n in

clim

ate

chan

ge re

late

d ev

ents

and

dec

isio

n m

akin

g pr

oces

s.

• M

oE;

• H

GO

s;

• En

ergy

Eff

icie

ncy

Cen

tre;

• G

eorg

ian

Gre

ens.

• C

C it

ems i

nteg

rate

d in

sect

oral

and

st

rate

gic

plan

s;

• Se

min

ars o

n C

C is

sues

hel

d;

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

man

ager

s aw

aren

ess r

aise

d;

• N

atio

nal e

xper

ts a

ctiv

ely

parti

cipa

te in

se

min

ars;

•

Med

ia w

ell i

nfor

med

and

pro

vide

d w

ith

late

st in

form

atio

n on

CC

; •

Priv

ate

sect

or in

volv

ed in

pro

ject

s de

velo

pmen

t pro

cess

; •

Wid

e sp

ectru

m o

f sta

keho

lder

s eng

aged

in

CC

-rel

ated

dis

cuss

ions

.

GoG

, MoE

, U

NEP

, GEF

U

NFC

CC

, N

CSU

4.Pr

omot

e an

d fa

cilit

ate

deve

lopm

ent a

nd

diss

emin

atio

n of

pub

lic

awar

enes

s mat

eria

ls o

n cl

imat

e ch

ange

(p

repa

ratio

n of

mat

eria

ls,

prin

ting

and

diss

emin

atio

n)

• Pr

ofes

sion

als

and

stak

ehol

ders

; •

Med

ia;

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

/ in

dust

ry;

• Po

licy

mak

ers;

•

Man

ager

s;

• G

ener

al p

ublic

.

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

pro

fess

iona

l gui

delin

es (o

n na

tiona

l la

ngua

ge) f

or d

iffer

ent s

ectio

ns o

f CC

such

as:

G

HG

s inv

ento

ry, V

&A

, miti

gatio

n an

d C

DM

. D

isse

min

atio

n of

gui

delin

es;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

info

rmat

ion

shee

ts o

n th

e la

test

fin

ding

s of I

PCC

and

dec

isio

ns o

f CO

Ps;

• O

rgan

izin

g th

emat

ic w

orks

hops

, dis

tribu

tion

of

wor

ksho

ps re

sults

(min

utes

) am

ong

prof

essi

onal

s;

• M

aint

aini

ng th

e co

ntin

uous

ly u

pdat

ed w

ebsi

te o

n C

C is

sues

, new

s and

ong

oing

pro

ject

s in

Geo

rgia

;

• D

istri

butin

g ne

ws t

hrou

gh e

xist

ing

netw

orks

(C

ENN

, etc

); •

Enab

ling

envi

ronm

ent t

hat e

nhan

ces a

cces

s to

clim

ate

chan

ge in

form

atio

n;

• Pr

oduc

tion

of v

isua

l mat

eria

ls o

n G

HG

sour

ces i

n G

eorg

ia a

nd p

oten

tial G

HG

s miti

gatio

n pr

ojec

t site

s;

• Pu

blic

atio

n of

pre

ss re

leas

es, b

ulle

tins,

them

atic

ca

lend

ars;

•

Prod

uctio

n of

pub

lic a

war

enes

s mat

eria

ls su

ch a

s po

ster

s, fly

ers,

book

lets

, bro

chur

es, d

raw

ings

, map

s, et

c;

• Pr

epar

atio

n of

scie

ntifi

c an

d po

litic

al a

rticl

es;

• D

isse

min

atio

n of

clim

ate

chan

ge re

late

d m

essa

ges

thro

ugh

radi

o, T

V a

nd o

ther

form

s of

com

mun

icat

ion

such

as n

ewsp

aper

arti

cles

; •

Prep

arat

ion

of m

ater

ials

on

the

polic

y an

d ec

onom

ic

aspe

cts o

f CC

; •

Dev

elop

ing

of g

uide

lines

for p

artic

ipat

ion

of p

rivat

e se

ctor

in C

C a

nd S

D p

roce

ss;

• En

surin

g th

e G

eorg

ian

vers

ion

of a

pro

ject

des

ign

form

s;

• D

istri

butio

n an

d in

crea

sing

acc

ess t

o th

e co

pyrig

ht-

free

mat

eria

ls in

acc

orda

nce

with

regu

latio

ns o

n in

telle

ctua

l pro

perty

pro

tect

ion;

•

Dis

tribu

tion

of c

limat

e ch

ange

info

rmat

ion

(new

s)

on n

atio

nal l

angu

age.

• M

oE.

•

Gui

delin

es p

repa

red

in G

eorg

ia fo

r all

clim

ate

chan

ge re

late

d se

ctor

s. M

ater

ials

di

ssem

inat

ed a

mon

g ex

perts

; •

Late

st in

form

atio

n go

t and

del

iver

ed to

st

akeh

olde

rs;

• N

ew e

xper

ts tr

aine

d fo

r diff

eren

t sec

tors

; •

Clim

ate

chan

ge W

ebsi

te c

ontin

uous

ly

upda

ted

and

cont

ains

late

st in

form

atio

n;

• N

etw

ork

syst

emat

ical

ly p

rovi

ded

with

in

form

atio

n;

• Sh

ort i

nfor

mat

ion

kit

on c

urre

nt p

roje

cts

com

pile

d;

• V

isua

l mat

eria

l pre

pare

d;

• In

form

atio

n m

ater

ial;

prod

uced

and

di

strib

uted

•

Clim

ate

chan

ge re

late

d ar

ticle

s pub

lishe

d an

d di

ssem

inat

ed;

• TV

and

radi

o pr

ogra

mm

es p

repa

red

and

aire

d N

atio

nal p

roce

dure

s and

ena

blin

g en

viro

nmen

t for

full

parti

cipa

tion

of

priv

ate

sect

or c

reat

ed;

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

act

ivel

y en

gage

d in

CC

m

itiga

tion

mea

sure

s;

• St

anda

rd fo

rms f

or d

onor

subm

issi

on

prep

ared

in G

eorg

ia;

• C

opyr

ight

–fr

ee m

ater

ials

eas

ily a

cces

sed;

•

Late

st in

form

atio

n on

clim

ate

chan

ge

nego

tiatio

n p

repa

red

in G

eorg

ia;

• M

ater

ials

for d

ecis

ion

mak

ing

prep

ared

an

d av

aila

ble.

GoG

, GEF

, U

NFC

CC

, IP

CC

Inte

rnat

iona

l co-

oper

atio

n, n

etw

ork

ing,

fu

nd

ing

and

polic

y 5.

Parti

cipa

te in

regi

onal

an

d in

tern

atio

nal c

o-op

erat

ion

prog

ram

mes

an

d ac

tiviti

es o

n cl

imat

e ch

ange

• Po

licy

mak

ers;

•

man

ager

ial

pers

onne

l; •

Scie

ntifi

c pr

ofes

sion

als

; •

Nat

iona

l ex

perts

.

• Fa

cilit

atio

n of

par

ticip

atio

n in

con

fere

nces

and

w

orks

hops

on

clim

ate

chan

ge a

nd re

late

d ar

eas;

•

Enco

urag

ing

the

exch

ange

of s

cien

tific

and

tech

nica

l ex

perts

and

seco

ndm

ent o

f per

sonn

el;

• En

hanc

emen

t of

nego

tiatin

g sk

ills o

f nat

iona

l de

lega

tes;

•

Faci

litat

ion

the

parti

cipa

tion

of d

iffer

ent t

arge

t gro

ups i

n re

leva

nt re

gion

al a

nd in

tern

atio

nal n

etw

orks

on

clim

ate

chan

ge a

nd e

nviro

nmen

t in

gene

ral;

• D

evel

opm

ent a

nd li

nkin

g th

e na

tiona

l web

site

/nat

iona

l ne

twor

k to

oth

er w

ebsi

tes a

nd n

etw

orks

; •

Mob

ilisa

tion

of fu

ndin

g to

ena

ble

scie

ntifi

c pe

rson

nel t

o at

tend

regi

onal

and

inte

rnat

iona

l wor

ksho

ps a

nd

conf

eren

ces o

n cl

imat

e ch

ange

; •

Initi

atio

n of

clim

ate

chan

ge-r

elat

ed p

rogr

amm

es.

• U

nive

rsiti

es;

• M

oE.

• N

o. o

f exp

erts

and

inte

rnat

iona

l ne

gotia

tors

incr

ease

d;

• Sc

ient

ific

artic

les p

repa

red

and

Bul

letin

s pu

blis

hed;

•

Net

wor

k in

form

atio

n av

aila

ble

to

scie

ntis

ts.

GoG

U

NFC

CC

U

NEP

IP

CC

W

MO

C

IDA

SI

DA

U

ND

P U

SAID

TA

CIS

6.S

treng

then

nat

iona

l in

stitu

tions

and

exc

hang

e of

per

sonn

el to

trai

n

expe

rts in

clim

ate

chan

ge

activ

ities

• Sc

ient

ific

and

tech

nica

l pe

rson

nel,

natu

ral

reso

urce

m

anag

ers.

• M

obili

satio

n of

fund

ing

and

iden

tific

atio

n of

in

tern

atio

nal p

rogr

amm

es fo

r tra

inin

g of

nat

iona

l exp

erts

; •

Esta

blis

hmen

t of c

limat

e ch

ange

rela

ted

clim

ate

data

base

s;

• Fa

cilit

atio

n co

llabo

rativ

e lin

kage

s bet

wee

n na

tiona

l and

in

tern

atio

nal c

limat

e ch

ange

inst

itutio

ns.

• G

oG;

• M

oE.

• N

umbe

r. of

skill

ed e

xper

ts in

crea

sed;

•

Ros

ter o

f nat

iona

l exp

erts

cov

ers a

ll cl

imat

e ch

ange

rela

ted

sect

ors a

nd is

sues

.

GoG

In

tern

atio

nal

dodn

ors

Fu

nd

ing

7.Id

entif

y re

sour

ce

requ

irem

ents

to su

ppor

t im

plem

enta

tion

of c

limat

e ch

ange

act

iviti

es

• G

oG;

• Pr

ivat

e se

ctor

; •

NG

Os

• D

evel

opm

ent o

f tar

get p

roje

ct p

ropo

sals

to p

oten

tial

bila

tera

l and

mul

tilat

eral

don

ors e

.g. G

EF/U

ND

P, U

NEP

, W

B, e

tc;

• Id

entif

icat

ion

of fi

nanc

ial n

eeds

of r

espe

ctiv

e lin

e m

inis

tries

in o

rder

to ta

ckle

from

thei

r per

spec

tive

the

clim

ate

chan

ge re

late

d pr

oble

ms;

•

Faci

litat

ion

of th

e vo

lunt

eery

par

ticip

atio

n of

st

akeh

olde

rs in

impl

emen

tatio

n of

Arti

cle

6 (in

par

ticul

ar,

prov

isio

n of

serv

ices

in- k

ind)

; •

Co-

ordi

natio

n of

vol

unte

eris

m a

nd v

olun

teer

ing

serv

ices

in

Geo

rgia

.

• M

oE.

•

Proj

ects

and

pro

gram

mes

pre

pare

d an

d fu

nded

.

GoG

In

tern

atio

nal

dodn

ors

Pol

icy

8.D

evel

op a

nat

iona

l po

licy

on c

limat

e ch

ange

an

d re

late

d ac

tiviti

es

• G

oG;

• St

ockh

olde

rs.

• Pr

epar

atio

n an

d co

ntin

uous

revi

sion

of d

raft

natio

nal

polic

y on

clim

ate

chan

ge (a

ctio

n pl

an);

• O

rgan

isat

ion

of w

orks

hops

to d

elib

erat

e on

the

draf

t pr

opos

als f

or n

atio

nal p

olic

y;

• Fa

cilit

atio

n of

bro

ad d

iscu

ssio

n pr

oces

s of t

he d

raft

natio

nal c

limat

e ch

ange

pol

icy

in o

rder

to re

ach

the

• M

oE.

•

Dra

ft C

C A

ctio

n Pl

an p

repa

red

and

appr

oved

. G

oG,

UN

FCC

C,

UN

EP, U

ND

P,

GEF

, NC

s

natio

nal c

onse

nsus

get

its a

ppro

val b

y pa

rliam

ent;

• U

pdat

ing

the

resu

lts o

f sur

vey

on n

eeds

ass

essm

ent

cond

ucte

d in

200

6-20

09;

• R

evis

ion

of th

e cu

rren

t stra

tegy

to th

e en

d of

201

2.

 

 

210

At the same time, over the past 10 years, local experts engaged in the preparation of both the Initial and Second National Communications dealt with questions of climate change in their regular lectures delivered at the I. Javakhishvili State University and other higher educational institutions. In particular, in 2007-2008 under the guidance of SNC modelling team leader three students prepared their Diplomas on the questions of climate change impact on forests and public health in Georgia, and on database processing in the regional climate model PRECIS. In the process of SNC preparation, systematic weekly seminars were held with local experts working in different sectors, at which items related to the GHG inventory, vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation were discussed. A number of experts were sent for training in leading centres to master the LEAP and PRECIS models. Over the past three years the following publications have been published: the Guidelines for local experts for the preparation of adaptation projects, two Bulletins comprising the results of activities conducted in 2006 and 2007, a popular scientific book concerning the climate change impact on human health (focused on Georgia), climate change tale adapted for children (in Georgian and English), as well as the Final Report on the second National GHG Inventory (Georgian version), which was disseminated among all relevant organisations. In significant numbers, bilingual wall calendars “Dedoplistskaro – 2008” and “Svaneti-2009” were published, discussing in popular form the topic of climate change impacts on the corresponding regions. In 2008 and 2009 two exhibitions were organised. One of them was devoted to the portrayal of the climate change problem in childrens’ paintings, and the other to the development by local experts of climate-friendly technologies for the solution of problems caused by climate change and for the application of renewables for various purposes. Systematic interviews were held with representatives of the mass media aimed at the raising of public awareness of climate change problems, and articles were published in local magazines and newspapers. To provide active participation in the project by local stakeholders in 2008 and 2009, a series of workshops and meetings were held in Dedoplistskaro, Lentekhi, Batumi and Poti, the comments and recommendations of which were accounted for in the adaptation strategies. At the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources, regular seminars were held with the participation of representatives from the Ministry and other stakeholders (TACIS, REC, Tbilisi State University, National Environmental Agency, research institutions), at which the results of current project were discussed. Members of the SNC preparation group took part in several international meetings, including a conference devoted to the Year of the Planet Earth held in Tbilisi in November 2008. 6.3. Capacity-building at national and regional levels Over the last six years, the most important capacity-building activities in Georgia included the appointment of DNA (the Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources) for CDM and strengthening its potential. The Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources being the Focal Point for UNFCCC leads all activities related to the climate change.

 

 

211

In 2004-2006 Georgia took part in implementing two regional projects in this area. The first, supported by the UNDP/GEF, was aimed at capacity-building in order to improve the quality of the GHG inventory, and the second project, performed with EU financial support, was to render assistance to the South Caucasus countries and Moldova in the creation of an adequate basis for the implementation of CDM projects. At the same time, in 2005-2007 Georgia participated in the UNDP/GEF regional project on the creation of a management system in the Kura-Aras basin, and in 2005-2008 Georgia participated in the USAID-supported project aimed at the institutional and scientific capacity-building of the water management system in the South Caucasus region. Earlier, in 2003 Georgia took part in the UN project on environmental networking in the Caucasus, and in 2004-2009 with German government support a project on promoting clean energy technologies in mountain regions of Georgia is being implemented, which partly deals with climate change impacts on socio-economic and environmental conditions in Georgia’s mountain settlements. At national level, capacity-building activities were mainly concentrated on promoting CDM development in the country. Constraints and barriers hampering this process in Georgia are discussed in Chapter 7 below.

Chapter 7 Constraints and financial needs revealed in the process of SNC preparation

7.1. Barriers to implementing the UNFCCC in Georgia Chapter 6 of this document reviews the projects and programmes which are directly or indirectly related to the climate change problem. In implementing these projects various barriers arise, the tackling of which partially occurs in the framework of ongoing projects, and part of which are losing urgency as a result of political or economic changes taking place in the country. However, some important barriers still exist, the overcoming of which is urgently necessary for the country’s economy to comply with the fundamental principle of the Convention – the principle of sustainable development. At present, existing barriers can be mainly classified into three groups: constraints to the preparation of SNC, constraints to the technology transfer process and barriers to the CDM process. In the process of SNC preparation, the following main constraints have been identified:

The lack of national experts having complex vision of environmental, social and economic development issues. Problems related to global warming were not studied in the Soviet period and the new scientific community is not still developed to the required level due to political and economic problems,. It ought to be mentioned, however, that the professional skill of local experts is sufficiently high. It is to be emphasised here that young experts having a good command of languages and modern techniques (including modelling expertise) do not have sufficient sectoral knowledge, while sectoral experts possessing great experience in their field do not have adequate skill in foreign languages and contemporary models that is required for making assessments and obtaining results at an up-to-date level.

 

 

212

The absence of necessary statistics or the unreliability of existing ones has proved to be one of the most important barriers in the process of SNC preparation. The lack of statistics particularly affects the assessments of GHG emissions, though it is no less important in the estimation of economic development scenarios and in development of adaptation strategies.

The absence of relevant scientific assessments and research. Assessing the negative economic impact of global warming and climate change processes on different sectors of the economy and ecosystems is the first stage in the adaptation measures planning process. The absence of such assessment studies is seriously decreasing the importance of adaptation strategies in the decision-making process.

Co-ordination and information-sharing between projects and programmes going on in the country. The SNC preparation process has confirmed once more that co-ordination between programmes being implemented in the country is still insufficient.

Taking on interests of local stakeholders in the climate change problem. Of the three priority regions examined in the framework of the SNC, only in one region did representatives of local government and other stakeholders (farmers) take serious interest in the climate change problem.

Environment protection is not a priority for the country. In spite of the fact that Georgia has signed almost all environment protection conventions and agreements and the country is seeking as much as possible to contribute to global or local environmental processes, against the background of complex political and economic problems facing the country, the Georgian government does not yet regard the protection of the environment as its priority. This barrier is most of all hampering the integration of climate change issues into the development plans of separate sectors and branches, including infrastructure. It prohibits the adoption of the relevant legislative basis.

In the technology transfer process there are two kinds of barriers: one is barriers existing in the international process and another is the constraints existing at recipient country level. In this document the barriers existing in Georgia are discussed.

Low awareness of decision-makers, private sector and population of the role of energy

efficient and renewable energy technologies in providing energy independence and in the process of energy sector sustainable development.

Energy audit practice is not yet usual among Georgia’s industry sector representatives

An incentives mechanism as a tool for acceleration of the transfer of modern technologies has not yet been seriously discussed in the country .

The private sector operating in the renewable energy sector has no management experience, as most of them are newcomers from the field of science.

Barriers to the Clean Development Mechanism: The Kyoto Clean Development Mechanism is based upon market economy

principles and for its success it is necessary that the market infrastructure to be already developed in the country. Therefore this mechanism has been successfully implemented in those countries which have well-developed market infrastructure (China, India, Brazil, etc.). Despite the fact that Georgia has transitioned to the market economy, the market infrastructure and its separate elements are not still sufficiently developed here. That is

 

 

213

why the CDM is struggling to develop in Georgia and why there are many constraints in achieving success.

Of the market economy elements, special attention should be focused on the frequent changes of CDM project owners (due to selling of enterprises) and lack of experience among private sector enterprises to make a deal with foreign partners. Resulting from these cases, a number of large projects have not been registered in Georgia in spite of serious interest from the side of investors. These are: natural gas transportation project, reduction of nitrous oxide emissions in ammonia manufacture, cement production, methane extraction from landfill and its flarin on- site.

Unavailability of data to construct the baseline scenario. In the past (often at present as well) there was no monitoring of parameters, which are necessary to estimate the baseline emissions of GHGs. Hence, a defined period of monitoring is required to collect these data, which causes constraints and delays in the registration and implementation of the project.

Scale of CDM project and emissions reductions. The main interest of inventors is concentrated on large-scale projects, while Georgia is a small country having a limited number of such projects on its territory. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union the Georgian economy has not still gained sufficient strength. The largest emitter of GHGs in the country at present is the transport sector, suffering from the lack of methodologies and scarcity of statistics that hampers the inclusion of this sector in the CDM. The scale of other projects is not large enough, and thus the interest of investors is lower. As for the energy efficiency and energy generation sectors, one of the barriers here is the low emission factors of the grid. In the Georgian energy network more than 72% belongs to hydro power.

Approval of new methodology. Some delays in the CDM process are caused by constraints emerging in the process of working out and approving new methodologies.

7.2. Capacity needs assessment Since 1994, when Georgia joined the UNFCCC and later, since 1999 after joining the Kyoto Protocol, capacity-building activities began aimed at implementing the country’s obligations under the Convention and the Protocol. In spite of this, significant gaps are still present in the existing potential, which require serious updating and strengthening. In this context, the following measures are especially important. Training of local experts for different sectors. It is important in this process to carry out

on-the-job trainings and experts certification during the solution of specific problems. Fellowship programmes. A group of Tbilisi State University students was actively

involved in the process of SNC preparation. They were working on the perfection and adaptation to Georgia’s conditions of various models (assessment of future climate change scenarios, revelation of heat wave trends, and estimation of CO2 sequestration by forests). It is necessary to strengthen this tradition and to adopt special facilitative courses at the Modelling faculty, where the students should be trained in specific sectors (healthcare, agriculture, water resources, energy, etc.). The participation of students in exchange programmes on these subjects is valuable as well.

Maximum involvement of national experts in various international programmes. The improvement of national statistics and provision for their compliance with

international requirements should be promoted. The programmes are to be carried out in the country that will financially assess the

anticipated losses caused by changes in climate.

 

 

214

7.3. Financial needs of the country to assist efficient implementation of the Convention. The country’s financial needs to tackle climate change problems, assessed for the present time, are mainly reflected in the concrete project proposals presented in the relevant chapters of this document. The total funding required for the implementation of the projects discussed above is assessed to be about USD 370 million. Nevertheless, this figure can be regarded only as the start of a broader assessment process.

 

 

215

Annexes

Cou

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y G

eorg

ia

Inve

nto

ry Y

ear

2000

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MM

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take

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s (+

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l est

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s an

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O2

rem

oval

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t est

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net”

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issi

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of C

O2

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gle

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ber

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ithe

r th

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O2

emis

sion

s

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O2

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oval

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lum

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at f

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rpos

es o

f re

port

ing,

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sign

s fo

r up

take

are

alw

ays

(-)

and

for

emis

sion

s (+

).

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at if

you

hav

e us

ed th

e IP

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d P

ract

ice

Gui

danc

e on

Lan

d U

se, L

and-

Use

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nge

and

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y, y

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map

ping

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k pr

oced

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befo

re e

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MA

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EE

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l est

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sion

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oval

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t est

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ithe

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port

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s fo

r up

take

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alw

ays

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for

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sion

s (+

).

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e th

at if

you

hav

e us

ed th

e IP

CC

Goo

d P

ract

ice

Gui

danc

e on

Lan

d U

se, L

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Use

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nge

and

For

estr

y, y

ou w

ill h

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to u

se a

map

ping

bac

k pr

oced

ure

befo

re e

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oval

s he

re

 

C

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nto

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MA

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RT

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R N

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GR

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g)

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AS

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d on

Tie

r 1

App

roac

h. A

= A

ctua

l em

issi

ons

base

d on

Tie

r 2

App

roac

h

(1

) T

he f

orm

ula

does

not

pro

vide

a to

tal e

stim

ate

of b

oth

CO

2 em

issi

ons

and

CO

2 re

mov

als.

It e

stim

ates

“ne

t” e

mis

sion

s of

CO

2 an

d

plac

es a

sin

gle

num

ber

in e

ithe

r th

e C

O2

emis

sion

s

or C

O2

rem

oval

s co

lum

n, a

s ap

prop

riat

e. P

leas

e no

te th

at f

or th

e pu

rpos

es o

f re

port

ing,

the

sign

s fo

r up

take

are

al

way

s (-

) an

d fo

r em

issi

ons

(+).

(2

) N

ote

that

if y

ou h

ave

used

the

IPC

C G

ood

Pra

ctic

e G

uida

nce

on L

and

Use

, Lan

d-U

se C

hang

e an

d F

ores

try,

you

wil

l hav

e to

use

a m

appi

ng

back

pro

cedu

re b

efor

e en

teri

ng e

mis

sion

/rem

oval

s he

re

C

oun

try

Geo

rgia

Inve

nto

ry Y

ear

2004

S

UM

MA

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PO

RT

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R N

AT

ION

AL

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EE

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OU

SE

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NV

EN

TO

RIE

S

(G

g)

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RE

EN

HO

US

E G

AS

SO

UR

CE

AN

D S

INK

C

O2

CO

2 C

H4

N2O

N

Ox

CO

N

MV

OC

SO

2 H

FC

s P

FC

s SF

6

CA

TE

GO

RIE

S

Em

issi

ons

Rem

oval

s

P

A

P A

P

A

Tot

al N

atio

nal

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issi

ons

and

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oval

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Dis

posa

l on

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Was

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ater

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dlin

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erat

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se s

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fy)

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ther

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ease

spe

cify

)

P =

Pot

enti

al e

mis

sion

s ba

sed

on T

ier

1 A

ppro

ach.

A =

Act

ual e

mis

sion

s ba

sed

on T

ier

2 A

ppro

ach

(1)

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for

mul

a do

es n

ot p

rovi

de a

tota

l est

imat

e of

bot

h C

O2

emis

sion

s an

d C

O2

rem

oval

s. I

t est

imat

es “

net”

em

issi

ons

of C

O2

and

plac

es a

sin

gle

num

ber

in e

ithe

r th

e C

O2

emis

sion

s

or C

O2

rem

oval

s co

lum

n, a

s ap

prop

riat

e. P

leas

e no

te th

at f

or th

e pu

rpos

es o

f re

port

ing,

the

sign

s fo

r up

take

are

alw

ays

(-)

and

for

emis

sion

s (+

).

(2)

Not

e th

at if

you

hav

e us

ed th

e IP

CC

Goo

d P

ract

ice

Gui

danc

e on

Lan

d U

se, L

and-

Use

Cha

nge

and

For

estr

y, y

ou w

ill h

ave

to u

se a

map

ping

bac

k pr

oced

ure

befo

re e

nter

ing

emis

sion

/rem

oval

s he

re

 

Cou

ntr

y G

eorg

ia

Inve

nto

ry Y

ear

2005

S

UM

MA

RY

RE

PO

RT

FO

R N

AT

ION

AL

G

RE

EN

HO

US

E G

AS

IN

VE

NT

OR

IES

(G

g)

G

RE

EN

HO

US

E G

AS

SO

UR

CE

AN

D S

INK

C

O2

CO

2 C

H4

N2O

N

Ox

CO

N

MV

OC

SO

2 H

FC

s P

FC

s SF

6

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TE

GO

RIE

S

Em

issi

ons

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oval

s

P

A

P A

P

A

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al N

atio

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issi

ons

and

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oval

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60

23

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sion

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ier

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ppro

ach.

A =

Act

ual e

mis

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ier

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ppro

ach.

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mul

a do

es n

ot p

rovi

de a

tota

l est

imat

e of

bot

h C

O2

emis

sion

s an

d C

O2

rem

oval

s. I

t est

imat

es “

net”

em

issi

ons

of C

O2

and

plac

es a

sin

gle

num

ber

in e

ithe

r th

e C

O2

emis

sion

s

or C

O2

rem

oval

s co

lum

n, a

s ap

prop

riat

e. P

leas

e no

te th

at f

or th

e pu

rpos

es o

f re

port

ing,

the

sign

s fo

r up

take

are

alw

ays

(-)

and

for

emis

sion

s (+

).

(2)

Not

e th

at if

you

hav

e us

ed th

e IP

CC

Goo

d P

ract

ice

Gui

danc

e on

Lan

d U

se, L

and-

Use

Cha

nge

and

For

estr

y, y

ou w

ill h

ave

to u

se a

map

ping

bac

k pr

oced

ure

befo

re e

nter

ing

emis

sion

/rem

oval

s he

re

 

Cou

ntr

y G

eorg

ia

Inve

nto

ry Y

ear

2006

S

UM

MA

RY

RE

PO

RT

FO

R N

AT

ION

AL

G

RE

EN

HO

US

E G

AS

IN

VE

NT

OR

IES

(G

g)

G

RE

EN

HO

US

E G

AS

SO

UR

CE

AN

D S

INK

C

O2

CO

2 C

H4

N2O

N

Ox

CO

N

MV

OC

SO

2 H

FC

s P

FC

s SF

6

CA

TE

GO

RIE

S

Em

issi

ons

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oval

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A

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P

A

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al N

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nal

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issi

ons

and

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oval

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)

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Pot

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sion

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sed

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ier

1 A

ppro

ach.

A =

Act

ual e

mis

sion

s ba

sed

on T

ier

2 A

ppro

ach

(1)

The

for

mul

a do

es n

ot p

rovi

de a

tota

l est

imat

e of

bot

h C

O2

emis

sion

s an

d C

O2

rem

oval

s. I

t est

imat

es “

net”

em

issi

ons

of C

O2

and

plac

es a

sin

gle

num

ber

in e

ithe

r th

e C

O2

emis

sion

s

or C

O2

rem

oval

s co

lum

n, a

s ap

prop

riat

e. P

leas

e no

te th

at f

or th

e pu

rpos

es o

f re

port

ing,

the

sign

s fo

r up

take

are

alw

ays

(-)

and

for

emis

sion

s (+

).

(2)

Not

e th

at if

you

hav

e us

ed th

e IP

CC

Goo

d P

ract

ice

Gui

danc

e on

Lan

d U

se, L

and-

Use

Cha

nge

and

For

estr

y, y

ou w

ill h

ave

to u

se a

map

ping

bac

k pr

oced

ure

befo

re e

nter

ing

emis

sion

/rem

oval

s he

re

 

 

 

230

Annex II Fuel consumption in Georgia by sectors in 2000

Fuel Sector

Coa

l

Cox

Oil

Liq

uid

gas

PG

Nap

hth

a

Gas

olin

e

Avi

atio

n

Ker

osen

e

Ker

osen

e

Die

sel F

uel

Bla

ck o

il

Lu

bri

can

ts

Nat

ura

l gas

Tim

ber

an

d

it’s

res

idu

es

103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 m3 m3 Electric energy and heat production 2 1 10 497 205 Processing industry 5 9 1 42 39 613 1 105 494 6 655 Transport

Road (motor) 250 83 10 249 Aviation 39 698 Railway 8 39 693 Pipelines 5 865

Other sectors Residential 5 39 479 39 508 197 255 6 161 520 Commercial 4 38 893 Agriculture 1 52 110 984 Other 5 17 344 Total 27 9 2 39 449 0 251 39 698 39 449 190 39 613 1 872 305 6 279 159

Fuel consumption in Georgia by sectors in 2001

Fuel Sector

Coa

l

Cox

Oil

Liq

uid

gas

PG

Nap

hth

a

Gas

olin

e

Avi

atio

n

Ker

osen

e

Ker

osen

e

Die

sel F

uel

Bla

ck o

il

Lu

bri

can

ts

Nat

ura

l gas

Tim

ber

an

d

it’s

res

idu

es

103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 m3 m3 Electric energy and heat production

4 1 1 20 441 182

Processing industry 6 19 1 46 16 1 86 586 9 114 Transport

Road (motor) 259 86 8 412 Aviation 9 Railway 3 Pipelines 4 814

Other sectors Residential 6 50 56 161 900 8 438 603 Commercial 31 922 Agriculture 1 67 152 000 Other 1 1 2 14 235 Total 12 19 4 51 1 260 9 58 223 16 3 749 051 8 599 717

 

 

231

Fuel consumption in Georgia by sectors in 2002

Fuel Sector

Coa

l

Cox

Oil

Liq

uid

gas

PG

Nap

hth

a

Gas

olin

e

Avi

atio

n

Ker

osen

e

Ker

osen

e

Die

sel F

uel

Bla

ck o

il

Lu

bri

can

ts

Nat

ura

l gas

Tim

ber

an

d

it’s

res

idu

es

103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 m3 m3 Electric energy and heat production

2 1 12 165 248

Processing industry 6 19 1 46 16 1 150 040 6 655 Transport

Road (motor) 272 89 10 253 Aviation 10 Railway 4 Pipelines 5 867

Other sectors Residential 6 53 59 172 360 6 161 520 Commercial 39 680 Agriculture 1 65 17 360 110 984 Other 1 1 2 19 840 Total 12 19 2 54 1 272 10 60 217 16 3 580 648 6 279 159

Fuel consumption in Georgia by sectors in 2003

Fuel Sector

Coa

l

Cox

Oil

Liq

uid

gas

PG

Nap

hth

a

Gas

olin

e

Avi

atio

n

Ker

osen

e

Ker

osen

e

Die

sel F

uel

Bla

ck o

il

Lu

bri

can

ts

Nat

ura

l gas

Tim

ber

an

d

it’s

res

idu

es

103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 m3 m3 Electric energy and heat production

9 2 46 183 587

Processing industry 7 22 1 45 16 1 105 000 6 655Transport

Road (motor) 260 85 9 540 Aviation 9 Railway 4 Pipelines 5 460

Other sectors Residential 7 54 60 251 343 6 161 520Commercial 49 558 99 558Agriculture 1 62 110 984Other 1 1 2 22 099 Total 14 22 9 55 1 262 9 62 243 16 3 626 587 6 378 717

 

 

232

Fuel consumption in Georgia by sectors in 2004

Fuel Sector

Coa

l

Cox

Oil

Liq

uid

gas

PG

Nap

hth

a

Gas

olin

e

Avi

atio

n

Ker

osen

e

Ker

osen

e

Die

sel F

uel

Bla

ck o

il

Lu

bri

can

ts

Nat

ura

l gas

Tim

ber

an

d

it’s

res

idu

es

103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 m3 m3 Electric energy and heat production

10 2 48 266 112

Processing industry 7 22 1 47 16 1 178 337 9 895 Transport

Road (motor) 268 88 20 381 Aviation 8 Railway 4 Pipelines 11 664

Other sectors Residential 7 57 64 389 216 9 161 912 Commercial 76 742 Agriculture 1 65 165 029 Other 1 1 1 34 222 Total 14 22 10 58 1 270 8 65 253 16 2 976 674 9 336 836

Fuel consumption in Georgia by sectors in 2005

Fuel Sector

Coa

l

Cox

Oil

Liq

uid

gas

PG

Nap

hth

a

Gas

olin

e

Avi

atio

n

Ker

osen

e

Ker

osen

e

Die

sel F

uel

Bla

ck o

il

Lu

bri

can

ts

Nat

ura

l gas

Tim

ber

an

d

it’s

res

idu

es

103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 m3 m3 Electric energy and heat production

10 2 1 48 315 621

Processing industry 3 8 1 48 17 1 199 236 10 445 Transport

Road (motor) 271 90 18 609 Aviation 9 Railway 3 Pipelines 10 649

Other sectors Residential 3 57 64 340 428 9 670 907 Commercial 67 123 Agriculture 1 65 174 197 Other 1 1 1 29 932 Total 5 8 10 58 1 273 9 66 254 17 2 981 598 9 855 549

 

 

233

Fuel consumption in Georgia by sectors in 2006

Fuel Sector

Coa

l

Cox

Oil

Liq

uid

gas

PG

Nap

hth

a

Gas

olin

e

Avi

atio

n

Ker

osen

e

Ker

osen

e

Die

sel F

uel

Bla

ck o

il

Lu

bri

can

ts

Nat

ura

l gas

Tim

ber

an

d

it’s

res

idu

es

103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 t 103 m3 m3 Electric energy and heat production

12 2 62 402 028

Processing industry 3 7 1 62 16 1 253 781 10 445Transport

Road (motor) 258 116 23 703 Aviation 10 Railway 4 Pipelines 13 565

Other sectors Residential 3 85 499 Commercial 58 64 433 627 9 670 907Agriculture 2 84 174 197Other 1 1 38 127 Total 6 7 12 59 260 10 66 329 16 2 1 250 330 9 855 549

An

nex

III

. Qu

anti

tati

ve e

stim

atio

n o

f u

nce

rtai

nti

es in

GH

G n

atio

nal i

nve

nto

ry

IP

CC

sou

rce

cate

gory

G

as

Bas

e ye

ar

emis

sion

s

t ye

ar

emis

sion

s

AD

u

nce

rtai

nty

E

F

un

cert

ain

ty

Com

bin

ed

Un

cert

ain

ty

Com

bin

ed

un

cert

ain

ty

as %

of

tota

l n

atio

nal

em

issi

ons

in y

ear

t

Typ

e A

se

nsi

tivi

ty

Typ

e B

se

nsi

tivi

ty

Un

cert

ain

ty

in t

ren

d in

n

atio

nal

em

issi

ons

intr

odu

ced

b

y E

F

un

cert

ain

ty

Un

cert

ain

ty

in t

ren

d in

n

atio

nal

em

issi

ons

intr

odu

ced

b

y A

D

un

cert

ain

ty

Un

cert

ain

ty

intr

odu

ced

in

to t

he

tren

d in

to

tal

nat

ion

al

emis

sion

s

EF

q

ual

ity

ind

icat

or

AD

q

ual

ity

ind

icat

or

Inp

ut

dat

a

Inp

ut

dat

a In

pu

t d

ata

Inp

ut

dat

a √E

2+F2

G*D

/∑D

N

ote

B

D

/∑C

I*F

N

ote

C

J*E

*√2,

N

ote

D

√K2+

L2

N

ote

E

Not

e E

Gg

CO

2-eq

. G

g C

O2-

eq.

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Coa

l: 1A

2 C

O2

8,61

4,

48

10

5 11

.18

0.01

0.

00

0.00

0.

00

0.00

0.

01

D

D

C

oke

1A2

CO

2 23

,97

21,5

7 10

5

11,1

8 0,

01

0,00

0,

00

0,01

0,

01

0,01

D

D

C

rude

oil

1A1

CO

2 6,

11

29,3

3 10

3

10,4

4 0,

02

0,00

0,

00

0,01

0,

02

0,02

D

D

LP

G: 1

A4

CO

2 3,

54

168,

37

20

9,5

22,1

4 0,

19

0,01

0,

01

0,13

0,

19

0,23

D

D

1A

2 C

O2

2,66

2,

95

10

9,5

13,7

9 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

M

azut

h 1A

2 C

O2

44,9

4 50

,79

10

5 11

,18

0,03

0,

00

0,00

0,

02

0,03

0,

03

D

D

Jet k

eros

ene

1A3

a C

O2

24,9

3 29

,67

5 5

7,07

0,

01

0,00

0,

00

0,01

0,

01

0,01

D

D

Oth

er K

eros

ene

1A4

ab

CO

2 4,

14

203,

13

20

2 20

,10

0,22

0,

01

0,01

0,

03

0,23

0,

23

D

D

1A4

c C

O2

2,55

3,

18

20

2 20

,10

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

Die

sel

1A1

a C

O2

31,7

7 15

2,51

10

2

10,2

0 0,

08

0,01

0,

01

0,02

0,

09

0,09

D

D

1A

2 C

O2

133,

44

150,

92

10

2 10

,20

0,08

0,

00

0,01

0,

02

0,08

0,

09

D

D

1A4

c (s

tatio

nary

) C

O2

31,7

7 20

6,2

20

2 20

,10

0,23

0,

01

0,01

0,

03

0,23

0,

23

D

D

1A5

CO

2 0

2,22

20

2

20,1

0 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1A

3 b

CO

2 26

4,03

28

5,63

10

2

10,2

0 0,

16

0,00

0,

02

0,05

0,

16

0,17

D

D

1A

3 c

CO

2 9,

21

9,85

10

2

10,2

0 0,

01

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

01

0,01

D

D

N

at. g

as

1A

1 a

CO

2 93

5,3

593,

72

10

3,5

10,5

9 0,

35

-0,0

2 0,

03

0,17

0,

34

0,38

D

D

1A2

CO

2 19

8,45

37

4,79

10

3,

5 10

,59

0,23

0,

01

0,02

0,

11

0,23

0,

25

D

D

1A4

a C

O2

73,1

6 12

6,27

20

3,

5 20

,30

0,15

0,

00

0,01

0,

04

0,15

0,

16

D

D

1A4

b C

O2

371,

06

640,

38

20

3,5

20,3

0 0,

77

0,02

0,

04

0,19

0,

79

0,81

D

D

1A

5 C

O2

32,6

3 56

,31

20

3,5

20,3

0 0,

07

0,00

0,

00

0,02

0,

07

0,07

D

D

1A

3 b

CO

2 19

,28

35,0

1 10

3,

5 10

,59

0,02

0,

00

0,00

0,

01

0,02

0,

02

D

D

1A3

e C

O2

11,0

3 20

,03

10

3,5

10,5

9 0,

01

0,00

0,

00

0,01

0,

01

0,01

D

D

Lu

bric

ants

1A

2 C

O2

1,31

1,

46

10

2 10

,20

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1A5

CO

2 0

1,9

20

2 20

,10

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

Gas

olin

e 1A

1 C

O2

1,54

7,

38

10

5 11

,18

0,01

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

01

1A3

b C

O2

769,

63

831,

71

10

5 11

,18

0,58

0,

00

0,05

0,

37

0,53

0,

64

D

D

Nap

htha

1

A5

CO

2 0

0,57

20

5

20,6

2 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

2

Indu

stria

l pr

oces

ses

CO

2

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

2A M

iner

al

prod

ucts

C

O2

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

Cem

ent 2

A1

CO

2 17

3,5

264,

21

5 5

7,07

0,

12

0,01

0,

02

0,12

0,

09

0,15

D

D

C

linke

r 2A

1 C

O2

102,

4 31

5,42

5

5 7,

07

0,15

0,

01

0,02

0,

15

0,11

0,

18

D

D

2A2

lime

CO

2 2,

6 13

,92

50

15

52,2

0 0,

05

0,00

0,

00

0,02

0,

05

0,05

D

D

2B

1 am

mon

ia

CO

2 20

4 22

8 5

7 8,

60

0,13

0,

00

0,02

0,

15

0,08

0,

17

D

D

2C1

a st

eel

CO

2 0,

2 0

5 25

25

,50

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

2C

2 a

ferr

oman

gane

se

CO

2 10

,7

22,1

9 5

25

25,5

0 0,

04

0,00

0,

00

0,05

0,

01

0,05

D

D

2C2

b si

licom

anga

nese

C

O2

34,9

18

5,98

5

25

25,5

0 0,

33

0,01

0,

01

0,45

0,

06

0,46

D

D

Coa

l: C

H4

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1A

2 C

H4

0,06

7 0,

053

10

80

80,6

2 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1A

3 c

CH

4 0,

031

0

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1A4

a C

H4

0,01

56

0 20

15

0 15

1,33

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1

A4

b C

H4

0,58

5 0,

3 20

15

0 15

1,33

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

N

atur

al g

as:

CH

4

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1A1

CH

4 0,

352

0,22

34

10

80

80,6

2 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1A

2 C

H4

0,37

3 0,

7 10

20

0 20

0,25

0,

01

0,00

0,

00

0,01

0,

00

0,01

D

D

1A

3 b

CH

4 0,

363

0,66

10

65

65

,76

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1A4

a C

H4

0,13

8 0,

24

20

80

82,4

6 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1A

4 b

CH

4 0,

7 1,

2 20

80

82

,46

0,01

0,

00

0,00

0,

01

0,00

0,

01

D

D

Gas

olin

e C

H4

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1A

3 b

CH

4 4,

71

5,09

10

70

70

,71

0,03

0,

00

0,00

0,

03

0,00

0,

03

D

D

Jet k

eros

ene:

C

H4

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1A

3 a

CH

4 0,

0037

0,

0044

10

70

70

,71

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

Die

sel:

CH

4

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1A1

CH

4 0,

0340

00

0,17

10

45

46

,10

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1A2

CH

4 0,

105

0,11

8 10

20

22

,36

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1A3

b C

H4

0,37

8 0,

41

10

75

75,6

6 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1A

3c

CH

4 0,

0132

0,

014

10

75

75,6

6 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1A

4 b

CH

4 0,

024

1,16

6 20

80

82

,46

0,01

0,

00

0,00

0,

01

0,00

0,

01

D

D

1A4

c (m

obile

) C

H4

0,19

2 0,

3 20

80

82

,46

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1A4

c(st

atio

nary

) C

H4

0,09

9 0

20

80

82,4

6 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

1B fu

gitiv

e em

issi

ons

CH

4

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1B1

a I (

coal

) C

H4

1,68

0

10

200

200,

25

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1B 1

a ii

(coa

l) C

H4

0,21

0

10

300

300,

17

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

D

D

1B2

a (o

il)

CH

4 0,

21

0,21

5

75

75,1

7 0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

0,

00

0,00

D

D

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4F

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te

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uman

se

wag

e N

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D

D

Tota

l em

issi

ons

(all

sour

ces)

:

9030

,461

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15,7

108

Tota

l H:

9,93

Le

vel

unce

rtain

ty

Tota

l M:

13,4

5

 

 

238

Annex IV

MAGICC/SCENGEN results of assessment of the best GSMs for Western (W) and Eastern (E) Georgia

0C     

% 

Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual W  E  W  E  W  E  W  E  W  E 

BMRC98  

T   Q 

0  1.2  7.7  7.2  3.1  3.5  3.4  2.0  3.5  3.5 

‐10.7  ‐3.0  ‐96.4  ‐95.3  ‐74.3  ‐75.2  3.4  44  ‐48.3  ‐39.3 

CCCL99  

T   Q 

1.9  3.6  3.0  1.2 2.7 5.0 4.2 6.3  2.9  4.0

47.2  129.5  ‐35.5  26.6  ‐35.7  ‐16.8  2  39.3  ‐8.3  46.2 

CCSR96  

T   Q 

7.6  7.2  11.6  11.6  8.3  7.4  9.0  7.4  9.1  7.7 

‐26.6  12.9  ‐94.6  ‐91.1  ‐69.3  ‐49.6  19.7  153.6  19.5  153.6 

CERF98  

T   Q 

8.0  8.4  8.9  6.4 6.8 6.9 12.0 10.7  9.0  8.1

9.3  23.5  ‐73.5  ‐66.4  ‐7.4  22.4  48.3  165.5  ‐10.0  23.9 

CSI296  

T   Q 

1.1  1.8  ‐0.7  ‐2.8  0.3  1.2  4.5  4.2  1.3  1.1 

‐2.8  36.4  ‐10.4 42.2 ‐42.2 5.6 ‐29.1 16.7  ‐21.3  26.5

CSM_98  

T   Q 

‐0.6  0.3  0.6  0.1  ‐0.9  0.4  2.5  1.7  0.4  0.5 

36.4  66.2  ‐43.2  ‐7.8  ‐44.7  ‐22.4  17.2  35.7  ‐12.2  17.1 

ECH395  

T   Q 

1.7  0.8  3.9  4.0  3.4  3.4  5.0  2.3  3.5  3.2 

‐9.8  6.8  ‐55.6 ‐45.3 ‐63.1 ‐62.4 2.5 40.5  ‐33.9  ‐18.8

ECH498  

T   Q 

‐0.2  1.7  2.1  4.9  1.9  2.4  3.5  ‐0.1  1.8  2.2 

31.9  52.3  ‐49.4  ‐18.0  ‐18.0  ‐4.8  44.8  77.4  ‐5.2  22.2 

GFDL90  

T   Q 

‐2.9  ‐3.4  3.8  1.5 0.7 ‐0.5 ‐0.6 ‐3.7  0.2  ‐1.5

80.8  198.5  ‐25.1  48.4  ‐13.5  49.6  10.8  120.2  10.4  104.3 

GISS95  

T   Q 

‐1.2  3.2  0.0  2.1  0.2  3.1  2.4  3.7  0.3  3.0 

154.7  110.6  ‐28.2  ‐7.0  23.0  39.2  225.6  156.0  84.3  67.4 

HAD295  

T   Q 

‐0.1  5.1  2.8  4.4 0.3 5.3 3.0 6.5  1.5  5.3

82.2  71.7  ‐29.0  ‐35.2  4.5  63.2  56.2  114.4  24.3  50.4 

HAD300  

T   Q 

0.1  1.1  0.9  ‐0.9  ‐0.2  2.4  1.1  3.2  0.5  1.5 

59.6  63.6  ‐34.7 ‐46.1 ‐32.8 ‐12.8 13.3 61.9  1.7  13.7

IAP_97  

T   Q 

1.5  1.5  7.5  4.9  3.5  2.9  4.2  2.6  4.2  3.2 

0.5  39.4  ‐82.2  ‐64.1  ‐0.8  78.4  12.3  97.6  ‐20.4  33.3 

LMD_98  

T   Q 

‐4.4  1.3  2.5  ‐0.5  0.6  4.9  ‐0.1  6.1  ‐0.4  2.9 

69.2  106.8  33.2 218.0 51.2 163.2 93.1 152.4  59.6  160.7

MRI_96  

T  Q 

7.1  5.7  12.4  8.7  6.9  4.9  8.5  5.1  8.7  6.1 

‐8.4  87.9  ‐72.6  ‐25.8  ‐55.7  4.0  26.6  158.3  ‐31.3  47.9 

PCM_00  

T   Q 

‐2.2  ‐1.8  ‐1.5 ‐3.2 ‐1.2 ‐2.2 0.8 ‐0.7  ‐1.0  ‐2.0

29.0  107.6  20.5  112.5  ‐49.2  ‐22.4  ‐17.7  19.0  ‐4.3  52.1 

WM_95  

T   Q 

6.4  5.9  13.9  11.1  8.8  7.6  10.1  7.6  9.8  8.0 

79.0  162.1  ‐81.1  ‐60.2  ‐3.3  57.6  93.6  251.3  16.1  91.5 

 

 

239

Annex V

Total:   ~2000 MW              ~5000 GWh

 

 

240

Annex VI # Name Installed capacity

MGW # Name Installed capacity

MGW 1 Magana 21.3 43 Tazara 6.0

2 Lekarde 20.0 44 Sakhvlari 5.3

3 Medani 4.4 45 Khunevi 11.3

4 Lebarde I 4.56 46 Gubazeuli 2 5.06

5 Lebarde II 4.16 47 Gubazeuli 5 11.6

6 Erjia 24.4 48 Gubazeuli 6 5.0

7 Tskhimra 29.0 49 Bakhvi hesi-1 15.0

8 Nobulevi 18.5 50 Bakhvi hesi-2 20.0

9 Lechaxa 17.8 51 Bakhvi hesi-3 6.0

10 Lesulukhe 6.7 52 Khala 13.0

11 Tekhuri 1-6 19.2 53 Merisi 11.5

12 Nakra hesi-1 19.6 54 Skhalta 5.3

13 Nankra 29.16 55 Iori 9.7

14 Nenskra 1 22.4 56 Dzegvi 10.0

15 Nenskra 2 14.0 57 Tergi 11.4

16 Nenskra 3 10.8 58 Dariali 50

17 Nenskra 4 25.43 59 Samkuristskali I 12.4

18 Nenskra 5 14.70 60 Samkuristskali II 22.2

19 Khumpreri 16.37 61 Avani 4.6

20 Kheledula 1 8.5 62 Duruji 1.74

21 Kheledula 2 8.0 63 Uraveli 5.0

22 Kheledula 3 12.0 64 Arakli 18.2

23 Stori hesi-1 10.0 65 Ninotsminda 9.4

24 Cheshura I, II 8.5 66 Abuli 12.5

25 Samitsao 10.0 67 Poka 0.5

26 Jejora 15.8 68 Stori hesi-2 10.0

27 Khobi hesi-1 27.0 69 Cheltii hesi-1 4.8

28 Khobi hesi-2 31.0 70 Cheltii hesi-2 4.8

29 Khobi hesi-3 9.0 71 Ksanis hesi-1 4.2

30 Janauli 13.0 72 Ksanis hesi-2 2.1

31 Alpana 69.0 73 Ksanis hesi-3 3.2

32 Tsala 9.14 74 Ksanis hesi-4 3.6

33 Jria 9.2 75 Ksanis hesi-5 6.0

34 Boriti 6.4 76 Marelisi 4.6

35 Tsablari 1 5.80 77 Mtkvari hesi 28

36 Tsablari 2 10.2 78 Bakhvi hesi-4 1.0

37 Xan-tsablari 3 8.30 79 Bakhvi hesi-5 2.0

38 Khani 7 6.4 80 Khudoni 700

39 Zestafoni 1 10.0 81 Namakhvanis kaskadi - Namakhvanis

250

40 Zestafoni 2 11.9 82 Namakhvanis kaskadi - Zhoneti

100

41 Zestafoni 3 15.9 83 Namakhvanis kaskadi - tvishi

100

42 Zestafoni 4 15.9 84 Onis kaskadi 276