Second Highway Project Tunisia - World Bank · 2000. 8. 23. · valent with a foreign exchange...

Report No. 930-TUN d e0 y

Appraisal of a FIL USecond Highway ProjectTunisiaDecember 4, 1975

Regional Projects DepartmentEurope, Middle East and North Africa Regional Office

Not for Public Use

Document of the Worid Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly In the performance of their officiai duties. Its contents may nototherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(As of April 16, 1975)

Currency Unit = Dinar (D)Dl = US$ 20 5974Dl,OO = US$ 2597.4Dl,,OOO,OOO US$ 2,597,400US$1 D 0.385

SYSTEM OF WOEIGHTS AND MEASURES: METRIC

Metric System British/US System

1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft)1 kilometer (km) 2 = 0.62 miles (mi) 21 sq kilometer (km ) = 0386 sq miles (mi )1 liter (1) = 0.2200 Imperial gallons (Igal)

= 0.2642 U.S. Gallons (gal)1 metric ton (m ton) 25205 pounds

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ADT - Average Daily TrafficBCEOM - Bureau Central de'Etudes pour les Equipement

d'Outre-MerCST - Commission Sectorielle des TransportsDPC - Direction des Ponts et ChausseesER - Economic ReturnGDP - Gross Domestic ProductGNP - Gross National ProductGP - Route de grands parcoursMC - Route de moyennes communicationsMPW - Ministry of Public WJorksMTC - Ministry of Transport and CommunicationsOPNT - Office des Ports Nationaux TunisiensRVE - Route vicinale d'etatSCET - Societe Centrale pour l'Equipementdu TerritoireSEM - Service d'Entretrien de MaterielSETEC - Societe d'Etudes Techniques et EconomiquesSGEE - Societe Generale d'Etude et d'EngineeringSNCFT - Societe Nationale des Chemins de Fer TunisiensSOMATRA - Societe de Materiel et de TravauxSOTUETEC - Societe Tunisienne d'Etudes Techniques

et EconomiquesSTUDI - Societe Tunisienne d'IngenierieUNDP - United Nations Development Programme

REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December 31

APPRAISAL OF

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

TUNISIA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...... ...................... i

I. INTRODUCTION ....................................... 1

II. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ............................... 1

A. Effects of Geography and Economic Growth onTransport ................................

B. The Transport System .................. 2C. Transport Policy, Planning, and Coordination .. 3D. Previous Projects ............................. 5

III. THE HIGHWAY SECTOR ............................ 5

A. The Network .................. .. 5B. Traffic . .5C. Administration . .6D. Planning and Engineering ................ 6E. Financing ............................. 7F. Construction ............................ 7G. Maintenance .. 8H., Training ............................ 9

IV. THEPROJECT .......... .............................. 9

A. Objectives ................... . ....... 9B. Description .. 10C. Engineering .. ilD. Cost Estimate .. ilE. Financing . .12F. Implementation .. 12G. Disbursements .................. 13H. Environmental Impact ................. 13

This report was prepared by Messrs. G. Ludwig (Engineer) and H. Beenhakker(Economist).

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) Page No.

V. ECONOMIC EVALUATION ................................ 13

A. Main Benefits and Beneficiaries .... ........... 13B. Economic Evaluation ........................... 15

VI. RECOMMENDATIONS .................. .................. 16

TABLES

1. Rail Transport; Main Freight, 1961-742. Sea Transport, 1961-733. Air Transport, 1961-734. Actual and Planned Investments by Sector, 1962-1976 (millions of Dinars,

current prices)5. Actual and Planned Investments by Mode, 1962-76 (current prices)6. Highway Network, 19757. Vehicle Fleet and Road Traffic, 1961-738. Road Traffic Estimates9. Design Characteristics of Project Roads10. Highway Expenditures, 1966-75l1. Cost Estimates for Highway Improvement Works12. Cost Estimates for Consultants' Services and Summary Cost Estimate13. Physical, Financial and Economic Data of Highway Improvement Works14. Results of Sensitivity Analyses of Cost and Benefit Streams15. Average Vehicle Operating Costs16. Average Characteristics of Typical Vehicles

ANNEXES

A. Transport Regulations, 1968 Transport Survey and Proposed Rural RoadtProgram

B. Transportation Projects Previously financed by the BankC. Highway ImprovementsD. Price Escalation Factors for Project ElementsE. Implementation ScheduleF. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements

CHART

15119 Organization of the Ministry of Public Works and HighwrayAdministration

MAP

11734 Highway Network and Transportation System

APPRAISAL. OF


TUNISIA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

i. The Government of Tunisia has asked the Bank to help finance theimprovement of about 225 km of primary and secondary highways in the northernand central regions of the country, and consulting services.

ii. The highway improvements consist of bypasses of the towns of Sousse,El-Djem and Sfax on the primary route GP1 (total 44.5 km), and the improvementof about 180 km of two-lane roads on the primary routes GP5 (Mornaghia-Medjez-el-Bab), GP6 (Beja-Jendouba), GP8 (Tunis-Bizerte) and MC 27/28 (Hammamet-Korba) including the construction of bypasses of the towns of Hammamet,Nabeul and Beni Khiar. The constilting services comprise assistance to updatethe 1968 Transport Survey and to prepare a rural roads program.

iii. The proposed loan amount would be US$28.0 million or 54% of thetotal project cost of US$52.3 million and would cover entirely the foreignexchange component.

iv. The Direction des Ponts et Chaussees in the Ministry of PublicWorks will be responsible for the execution of the construction works andpreparation of the rural roads program while the Ministry of Transportand Communications will be responsible for the updating of the 1968 Trans-port Survey. Construction contracts on the basis of unit prices will beawarded after international competitive bidding in accordance with the Bank'sGuidelines for Procurement.

v. The project was appraised in March/April 1975. The beneficiariesof the project are primarily farmers and manufacturers, consumers and roadtransport passengers.

vi. The project is economically sound and of high priority. On thebasis of savings in highway user costs, the improvement works are expectedto yield an overall economic return in excess of 33%. Sensitivity analysestesting the overall economic return gave returns of approximately 28% and27% assuming a 25% cost overrun and 25% reduction of benefits, respectively.

vii. Based on expected economic lives of the roads or road sections to beimproved, the project is suitable for a Bank loan of US$28.0 million for aterm of 24 vears, including a four-year grace period.

APPRAISAL OF


TUNISIA

I. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The Government of Tunisia has asked the Bank to help finance theimprovement of about 225 km of highways in the northern and central regions.Feasibility studies and detailed engineering for the improvements were fi-nanced under the First Highway Project carried out by the joint ventures offoreign and local consultants Bureau Central d'Etudes pour les Equipementsd'Outre-Mer (BCEOM, France)/Societe Tuniîienne d'Ingenierie (STUDI), RenardetSAUTI (Italy) /Societe Generale d'Etudes et d'Engineering (SGEE), and Societed'Etudes Techniques et Economiques (SETEC, France)/Societe Tunisienne d'Etudes Techniques et Economiques (SOTUETEC). The project further includesthe updating by consultants of a transport survey carried out by consultants(Italconsult) in 1967-68 (the 1968 Transport Survey), financed by the UnitedNations Development Programme (UNDP), with the Bank as executing agency, andtechnical assistance for the preparation of a rural roads program.

1.02 The total cost of the project is estimated at US$52.3 million equi-valent with a foreign exchange component of about US$28.0 million or 54%.The loan of US$28.0 million will cover these foreign exchange costs.

1.03 This report is based on the economic and engineering studies car-ried out by the above consultants, on information provided by the Governmentand on the findings of an appraisal mission consisting of Messrs. G. Ludwig(Engineer) and H. Beenhakker (Economist) which visited the country in March/April 1975.

II. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

A. Effects of Geography and Economic Growth on Transport

2.01 Tunisia, with an area of 164,000 km2 or about one-quarter that ofFrance, is bordered by the Mediterranean to the north and east, Algeria tothe west, and Libya to the southeast. Its estimated population of 5.7 mil-lion is increasing at about 2.4% per annum. Forty-five percent of the popula-tion lives in the four northeastern coastal provinces of Tunis, Sousse, Sfaxand Bizerte, where population density approaches 100 per km2, as opposed tofewer than 20 inhabitants per km2 in the southwestern interior. The south ischaracterized by large areas of infertile desert.

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2.02 Between 1962, the beginning of the first decade of planned develop-ment, and 1974 per capita Gross National Product (GNP) in constant (1966)prices increased by 4% annually. From 1964-74 the share of industry, includingmining, petroleum, manufacturing, construction and tourîom increased from 23to 35% of GDP while that of agriculture remained around 21% and that of serv-ices correspondingly declined. The principal sources of foreign exchange arecrude oil, phosphates, tourisL: and olive oil.

2.03 Since the "Ten-Year Perspectives" (1962-71) vas published, importantchanges in investment policies have been introduced. Untîl the end of thatperiod, the Government committed itself in agriculture to the cooperativesystem as a vehicle for the reform and education of the farmier, and to heavypublic outlays - in irrigation, land conservation and afforestation - vithlittle effect on production, at least in the short run. Wit:h the exceptionof tourism and petroleum exploration, there was little development of theprivate sector while foreign investment was limited. Since 1970, a differentstrategy has been initiated, with priority going to directly productive in-vestments, the development of labor-intensive export industries, and fullutilization of existing capacity; the private sector is assiLgned an essentialrole, and foreign investors are encouraged to provide finance, expertise andaccess to export markets. In addition, the Government is aware that an effi-cient road system is required to promote agricultural and inidustrial develop-ment and tourism. Largely as a result of the new strategy, the real growthrate of GDP from 1971 through 1973 has averaged 9.4% per annum, compared with4.6% during the previous decade. However, this improvement is partly due togood weather leading to record cereal and olive crops and increased petroleumand phosphate revenues. The real GDP growth rate for 1974 :ls estimated atover 10.5%.

B. The Transport System

2.04 On becoming independent in 1956, Tunisia inherited a relatively welldeveloped transport system. As a result major improvements were undertakenonly after 1968 and in the light of the 1968 Transport Survey.

2.05 The transportation system comprises 16,850 km of roads (para. 3.0');about 2,000 km of standard and narrow gauge railways; four major commercialports, and five airports, of which three handle international flights.

2.06 The increase in total rail freight traffic from 96S2 million ton kmin 1961 to an estimated 1,522 million ton km in 1974 is primarily due to theincreased transport of phosphates and iron ore (Table 1). Between 1967-74railroads lost a significant portion of their role in internlal transport tothe roads. While railroads accounted for 46% of freight traffic other thanphosphates and iron ore and 30% of total passenger traffic in 1967, they nowaccount for 36% and 22%, respectively. Total cargo handled by the afc'emen-tioned four ports increased from 5,358,000 metric tons in 11961 to 8,871,000metric tons in 1972 or an average annual growth rate of 4.7% (Table 2). Total

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air passenger traffic increased from 188,300 passengers in 1961 to 1,752,600passengers in 1973, or an average annual growth rate of 20% (Table 3).

2.07 In 1969 the Societe Nationale des Chemins de Fer Tunisiens (SNCFT),the Government agency which owns and operates the railways, started a re-habilitation program which is still under way, and which the Bank is helpingto finance. A Port Master Plan Study financed under the Bank's Second PortsProject is nearing completion. The Government is aware of the need for ierprovements of domestic airports and is actively seeking sources of finance tomeet it.

C. Transport Policy, Planning and Coordination

2.08 The 1968 Transport Survey revealed two defects in Tunisian trans-port policy: namely, (a) the absence of effective administrative machineryfor intermodal coordination in the transport sector, and (b) an excessivedegree of regulation. Since 1968 significant improvements have been intro-duced. In 1970 a Direction des Transports in the Ministere de l'EconomieNationale (Ministry of the National Economy) was established, which, upon therecommendation of the Commission Sectorielle des Transports (CST) becamethe Ministere des Transports et Communications (Minîstry of Transport andCommunications-MTC) in January 1974.

Organization

2.09 The CST is a consultative body consisting of representatives ofthe administration, of the various transport agencies and of users whichmeets on request to study specific problems. MTC's responsibilities in thetransport sphere include coordination of all modes of transport, improvementof transport regulations and tariffs, overall development of the transportsector and the planning of rail, sea-and airport infrastructure.

2.10 The Ministry of Planning has broad overall responsibility for trans-port development along with all other sectors. The planning, administration,construction and maintenance of the highway network is the responsibility ofthe Direction des Ponts et Chaussees (DPC) in the Ministere de l'Equipement(Ministry of Public Works-MPW; Chart).

Regulations

2.11 Progress vith simplification of regulations has been slower thanprogress with reorganization. The Government still controls the transportsector by approving tariffs, and licensing operators. In practice, privateoperators are limited to the transport of their own goods, or the transportof persons in passenger cars, while public transport (freight and passenger)is controlled by large public companies. Annex A presents the main improvL-ments proposed by MTC but still to be approved by the Cabinet.

2.12 Despite regulatory measures favoring rail at the expense of roadfor transport of products such as cereals and flour, the financial situation

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of SNCFT has remained poor, because of the preferential tariiEfs enjoyed bycertain goods.

User Charges

2.13 Italconsult, as part of the First Highway Project Einanced by theBank, carried out a road user taxation study and made related recommendations.The recommendations, which have been taken up by MTC and aim at a simplifica-tion and rationalization of the tax system, are expected to Lmprove the allo-cation of traffic to modes and vehicle types. Section 4.04 of the Loan Agree-ment for the First Highway Project stipulates that the Government should re-view with the Bank the above recommendations and implement them where appro-priate. The Government, at the present time, is reviewing the recommendationsderived from the study. During negotiations, the Government agreed to reviewthese recommendations with the Bank and to prepare new regulations on roaduser taxation prior to April 30, 1976, and put them into effect promptly butnot later than December 31, 1976.

2.14 All transport tariffs are fixed by the Government and cannot beexceeded. Early in 1974 tariffs for freight transport by trucks were revisedto cover cost increases. Tariffs for passenger transDort have not been in-creased, which has caused financial difficulties to some of the semi-publictransport companies (Societes Regionales de Transport). These difficultiesare due to the Government requiring transport companies to provide school busservices at nominal fares below the cost of operation, and t!he imposition ofsales taxes as well as general cost increases. The Government recognizes theneed to provide these companies with the funds required to cover losses inrevenue due to the introduction or maintenance of reduced tariffs. Duringnegotiations, the Government agreed to fully implement this strategy prior toDecember 31, 1978.

Investments

2.15 Total investments of the Fourth Development Plan (1973-76) amountto D 1,194.2 million or an average D 298.6 million annually (Table 4). In-vestments in the communications and transport sector of this Plan amount toD 195.7 million of which D 87.4 million are allocated to roads (Table 5).The D 87.4 million, are primarily for road maintenance and improvement andmodernization of the existing network. Low priority is given to the exten-sion of the road network, which is reasonable except perhaps in the contextof rural roads (see paras. 2.16 and 5.07).

2.16 The need for improved transport planning and coordination togetherwith a shortage of trained personnel in the MTC are recognized by the Govern-ment. To improve this situation, the proposed project includes consultingservices for the updating of the 1968 Transport Survey and the preparation ofa rural roads program. During negotiations the Government and the Bank dis-cussed and agreed on (i) the outline and timetable for the updating of theSurvey; and (ii) the scope and formulation of the rural roads program (paras.4.04 and 4.05).

D. Previous Projects

2.17 Annex B shows the details of these projects, which include highwavengineering studies, a highway project, a railway project, a pipeline projectand two port projects. The Bank's participation in these projects amountsto US$64.0 million.

III. THE HIGHWAY SECTOR

A. The Network

3.01 The highway network totals 16,850 km, of which about 7,700 km arepaved, about 800 km have a gravel surface, about 4,000 km are of earth con-struction, and the remaining 4,400 km are tracks (Table 6). The network isunevenly distributed over the different regions of the country. It is verydense in the north and along the coast in the east, thins out graduallytoward the central region and decreases to a minimum in the arid south.

3.02 While the present network is generally adequate in coverage andlength, its design characteristics are in many areas becoming insufficientto handle the growing traffic. Narrow carriageways, inadequate sight dis-tances, tortuous alignments and insufficient pavement thickness cause hazardsand high operating costs. Under the First Highway Project certain heavilytravelled trunk roads were modernized and light and aging pavements werestrengthened. The proposed project will continue to assist the Governmentin improving and modernizing the network.

B. Traffic

3.03 The Institut National de la Statistique publishes annually thenumber of registered vehicles (Table 7). Since vehicles which are no longerin use apparently are not removed from the records, the annual numbers areinflated. The proposed project contains provisions to improve the reliabilityof the vehicle figures (para. 5.07).

3.04 Consultants' estimates of total vehicle fleet in use (excluding ag-ricultural trailers) are approximately 43,200, 51,400 and 71,200 for the years1962, 1966 and 1972, respectively. Thus the annual growth rate amounts to4.5% for the period 1962-66 and 5.5% between 1966-1972. By the end of 1973the total fleet was estimated at 77,300 consisting of 63,200 passenger cars,3,200 trucks, 8,700 vans, 2,000 buses, and 200 tractors. In addition thereare about 700 agricultural trailers.

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3.05 In the public sector passenger-knm and ton-kmn road traffic has in-creased at average annual rates of 8.9% ard 15.47, respectively, during theperiod 1966-71 (Table 7). Traffic increase has been particularly heavy onthe access roads to Tunis and the touris:n areas, wher.- rates of 12% to 17.5%per annum are recorded with an average daily traffic in 1973 of 15,000 to30,000 vehicles on the links from Tunis to route GP1. Part of this signifi-cant increase is the result of more liberal vehicle import arid transportlicenses policies.

3.06 Estimates of average annual growth rates of road traffic in termsof passenger-km amount to 7.6% and 7.1% for the periods 1972-1976 and 1976-1980, respectivelv. Corresponding estimates in terms of ton-km are 5.3% and8.0% for 1972-1976 and 1976-1980, respectively (Table 8). Legal restrictionson vehicle weights (maximum axle-load is 13 tons) and dimensions are satis-factorv and are being enforced.

C. Administration

3.07 The Direction des Ponts et Chaussees (DPC) in the MPW is responsiblefor the maintenance and development of the highway system. DPC has sevenheadquarter divisions; administration, organization and methods, design, con-struction, laboratory, equipment and special studies (Chart). The fieldorganization of DPC includes six field divisions; Tunis, Bizerte, Sousse,Sfax, El Kef and Gabes which in turn supervise 18 field subdivisions, onefor each of the "Gouvernorats", the regional political units. A field sub-division has responsibility for 600 to 1,000 km of the highway network.

3.08 The organization of DPC was established following recommendations bythe French consultants SCET-BCEOM financed under a Highway Engineering Project(Loan S2-TUN). A major feature of the organization, undertaken in 1972/73as part of the First Highway Project, was that DPC was given full responsi-bility for the management of its own equipment fleet. Previously DPC drewits equipment from the Service d'Entretien de Materiel (SEM), a division ofanother directorate in the MPW.

3.09 The divisions and subdivisions are manned by about 50 engineersand 250 technicians. The engineers in charge are competent, and most havebeen trained abroad, mainly in France. Several French expatriate engineersoccupv positions within the DPC and contribute to an efficient operation.

D. Planning and Engineering

3.10 The Design Division in the DPC is responsible for planning anddesigning highway projects. A competent Chief Engineer heads the division,

but sufficient staff (especially economists) is lacking. For this reasonDPC employs consultants, both local and foreign, for the preparation ofimportant highwav projects; smaller projects are designed by the division.

3.11 The design standards (Table 9) used by DPC for highways, which aresatisfactory, are similar to the French standards as described in "InstructionFrancaise sur les Conditions Techniques d'Amenagement des Routes (ICTAR-1969)".

E. Financing

3.12 Between 1966 and 1970, annual expenditures for construction andmaintenance of roads averaged approximately D 4.2 million (Table 10). Theselow expenditures reflect the low priority accorded by the Government to high-way infrastructure investmnent. However, based on the recommendations of theTransport Survey (see para. 2.04) and the recommendations of the Bank-financedHighway Maintenance Study carried out by SCET-BCEOM under the First HighwayProject, the Government became aware of the importance of a well maintainedand modern highway network. Highway allocations grew from D 15.4 million in1972 to D 17.3 million in 1975 (Table 10); the sharp rise from D 4.2 millionin 1971 to D 15.4 million in 1972 was caused by a special budget allocationof D 8.8 million for repairs of the roads damaged in the 1969 floods.

3.13 The central Government provides all funds (maintenance and con-struction) for the primary and secondary road network, and the Gouvernoratsfor the tertiary roads.

F. Construction

3.14 The DPC as a matter of policy usually undertakes construction ofroads through contractors. This is a complete reversal of an earlier policywhereby all highwav construction was executed with DPC forces. In order tomake use of the substantial equipment pool built up during the 1960's and tokeep competitive pressure on foreign contracting firms operating in Tunisia,the Government in 1970 decided to establish the Societe de Materiel et deTravaux (SOMATRA), utilizing former DPC forces and equipment from SEM (para.3.08) as a starting base. The Government owns the majority of the company'sshares, but the company is financially independent and free from directGovernment control. It has successfully participated in the bidding, eitheralone or in joint ventures with foreign firms, for some of the project elementsof the First Highway Project. SOMATRA receives no beneficial considerationsand does not constrain the activities of private firms. Competing with SOMATRAand foreign firms are several privately owned local construction firms (AfriqueTravaux, Effert, SABAG), capable of contracts up to US$2.5 million, which areparticipating successfully in the construction of elements of the First High-way Project and other major construction.

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3.15 Supervision of all highway construction is carried out by the con-struction division of the DPC. The staff of this division is assisted intheir tasks by the Central Laboratory, another division. The well equippedlaboratory executes all soils and materials tests necessary for the super-vision and also for engineering of highwav projects. Supervision is satis-factory.

G. Maintenance

3.16 Under the First Highway Project highwav maintenance operations weresuccessfully reorganized and strengthened based on a review oif the highwaymaintenance organization carried out by the French consultants, SCET-BCEOM,under the Highway Engineering Loan S2-TUN.

3.17 The maintenance operations are carried out or are supervised in thefield by the 18 Field Subdivisions which are located at the Gouvernorats.These Field Subdivisions in turn are supervised by the six Field Divisions.At headquarters execution of all maintenance work, including t:he resurfacingand rehabilitation of paved roads, is monitored by the division for Organiza-tion and Methods.

3.18 This division, assisted by experts from consultants financed underthe First Highway Project, has introduced improved procedures for planning,management and cost accounting. It has, together with the Equipment Division,introduced an equipment depreciation accounting system which is now function-ing satisfactorily. This system will be an important input for determiningfuture renewals of each piece of equipment. It also has introduced full costaccounting of all types of maintenance operations, including the cost ofequipment in each operation.

3.19 Periodic maintenance such as the renewal of the wearing course ofpaved roads is carried out by contractors whereas routine maintenance iscarried out by the field subdivisions with their own forces.

3.20 Since DPC gained full control of equipment (para. 3.08), it hasdistributed the highway maintenance equipment not allocated to SOMATRA (para.3.14) to the field divisions. Repairs of so called 'elst' and "2nd degrees"(light repairs) are carried out by the mechanics of the field subdivisions,

more serious repairs or overhauls of the equipment ("3rd" and "4th degrees")are carried out at the Equipment Division (Parc Central de Materiel) inTunis. To avoid transport over long distances from the field subdivisions tothe Equipment Division in Tunis, the DPC is contemiplating the creation of tworegional equipment pools at Gabes and Kairouan for maintenance and overhaulof equipment.

3.21 The Equipment Divisior. employs about 200 mechanics and electricians;each subdivision has two to three mechanics and electricians according to tilesize of their equipment pool.

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3.22 Maintenance expenditures for 1975 amounted to T) 4.6 million includ-ing about D 2.0 million administrative cost (Table 10). Tle direct mainte-nance expenditure represents about US$750 per km of paved road and aboutUS$250 per km of gravel road which is satisfactory.

H. Training

3.23 A training program for mechanics and electricians has been sponsoredby the Ministry of Public Works and the Ministry for Social Affairs. Thisprogram which is financed by the Ministry of Social Affairs and held at theEquipment Division, is expected to train 200 - 300 mechanics and electriciansper year. The program which appears to be adequate started in May 1975 and isalso open for mechanics from the private sector.

3.24 In 1974 the first graduates of civil engineering left the NationalSchoo. in Tunis. DPC expects to meet its need for civil engineers fromamong the graduates of this school.

IV. THE PROJECT

A. Objectives

4.01 In line with the Governnent's overall development objectives andthe consequent policy of stressing maintenance and improvement of the high-way network, the project would:

(a) give impulse to industrial development in the Bizerte regionby upgrading the primary road GP8 between Tunis and Bizerte;

(b) reduce transportation costs on a number of more heavily traf-ficked routes by constructing bypasses and upgrading thepresent sub-standard facilities to modern two-lane highwaysthus providing reliable connections between major cities inthe regions concerned;

(c) help to improve future transportation planning by providingconsultants to assist in upgrading the 1968 Transport Survev;and

(d) help to foster rural development strategy through a ruralroads program.

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B. Description

4.02 The project would consist of:

(a) the improvement of about 225 km of primary and secondaryroads: and

(b) consulting services to assist in updating the 1968 Trans-port Survey and to assist with the preparation of a ruralroads program.

Highways Improvements (Annex C)

4.03 The following road sections would be improved to two-lane pavedstandards:

(a) GP1: Tunis-Libyan Border Road

(i) construction of a bypass at Sousse (32.0 km) arnd asection of MC82 leading from Sousse to Moknine (1.2 km);

(ii) construction of a bypass at El-Djem (3.2 km); and

(iii) construction of a bypass at Sfax (8.0 km);

(b) GP5: Tunis-MIedjez-el-Bab Road

improvement of the section Mornaghia-Medjez-el--Bab(38.2 km);

(c) GP6: Beja-Jendouba Road

improvement of the entire road (46.2 km);

(d) GP8: Tunis-Bizerte Road

improvement of the entire road (57.7 km); and

(e) MC 28/MC 27: Hammamet-Korba Road

improvement of the entire road (37.7 km) includingconstruction of bypasses at the towns of Hammainet,Nabeul and Beni Khiar.

Consulting Services

1968 Transport Survey

4.C4 The proposed project would provide about 70 man-months of consult-ing services over a period of two years to the M'C in order to assist MTCstaff in the updating of the 1968 Transport Survev (para. 5.13).

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Rural Roads Program

4.05 In many areas, agricultural and rural development bas been con-strained by lack of adequate transport facilities. The proposed projectwould provide also about 110 man-months of consulting services over a periodof two and a half years to assist the MPW in the preparation of a program ofrural road improvement and construction to foster agricultural and ruraldevelopment. The main purpose of this program, which will consist of a pilotprogram (Phase I) and possibly, a follow-up project (Phase II) is to identifyand prepare rural roads for improvement or construction and, possibly, relatedcomplementary investments. The probable concept and scope of the program isshown in Annex A.

C. Engineering

4.06 Engineering according to the design standards of Table 9 was carriedout by the joint ventures between foreign and local firms BCEOM-STUDI, RenardetSAUTI-SCEE and SETEC-SOTUETEC. The standards which are satisfactory aresimilar to the French standards described in "Instruction Francaise sur lesConditions Techniques d'Amenagement des Routes (ICTAR-1969)". The soils andmaterials investigations were satisfactorily carried out by the LaboratoryDivision of DPC.

D. Cost Estimates

4.07 Details of cost estimates for the various project items are givenin Tables 11 and 12. The estimated cost of the project is as follows:

------- D'000 ------ ------ US$'000 ------ ForeignItem Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Component

A. Highway Improve-ments 6,151 6,936 13,087 15,977 18,014 33,991 53

B. Consulting Services 131 308 439 342 798 1,140 70

Subtotal 6,282 7,244 13,526 16,319 18,812 35,131 54

Contingencies onA and B

C. Price Escalation 2,439 2,813 5,252 6,335 7,307 13,642D. Physical (10%) 628 725 1,353 1,632 1,881 3,513

Subtotal 3,067 3,538 6,605 7,967 9,188 17,155

TOTAL 9,349 10,782 20,131 24,286 28,000 52,286

Say: 24,300 28,000 52,300 54

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4.08 The cost estimates for improvement works are based on quantitiesfrom the final design and on unit rates pertaining in early 1975. The costestimates for consulting services are based on the estimated man-months re-quired and consultants' rates pertaining in early 1975.

4.09 Contingencies for price escalation for construction and consultingservices have been estimated on expected price increases of 16% in 1975, 14%in 1976 and 12% in each of the two years following thereafter. Details aregiven in Annex D. A 10% physical contingency for improvement works as wellas for consulting services has been included to allow for unforeseen quantityincrease in the improvement items and for man-months in consulting services,respectively.

4.10 The foreign exchange component is estimated at US$28.0 million,which is 54% of total project cost. The foreign exchange component for thehighway improvement works would range from 58% to 48% according to whetherconstruction was carried out by foreign or local firms. Based on the mostlikely blend of foreign and local participation the foreign exchange componentis estimated at 53%. Where possible works have been broken down into smallercontracts to encourage local participation. Foreign firms will be permittedto bid on groups of contracts. For consulting services the foreign exchangecomponent is estimated at 70% based on the most likely event that these ser-vices would be provided by foreign firms with participation of local firms.All cost estimates have been discussed and agreed with the Borrower duringnegotiations.

E. Financing

4.11 The proposed loan of US$28.0 million would finance 54% of the totalcost of US$52.3 million and finance the entire foreign exchange component ofthe project. The Government would provide the local component from its con-cerned budgets.

F. Implementation

Responsibility for Project Execution

4.12 The DPC would be responsible for the lmplementation of the road works.All road improvement works would be carried out by contract and supervised bythe DPC which is competent for this purpose. The DPC would also be respons-ible for the rural roads study, whereas the MTC would be responsible for theupdating of the 1968 Transport Survey. The consulting services would be pro-vided by qualified and experienced consultants satisfactory to the Bank.

- 13 -

Procurement

4.13 For the improvement works contracts on the basis of unit priceswould be awarded after international competitive bidding in accordance viththe Bank's Guidelines for Procurement. Works are expected to start about mid-1976 and be completed about early 1979. Proposals for the consulting serv-ices would be invited early 1976, after the terms of reference have beenagreed between the Government and the Bank. The services are expected tobe completed in the second half of 1978 for the updating of the TransportSurvey as well as for the Rural Roads Study.

Project Implementation Schedule

4.14 A Project Implementation Schedule is in Annex E. The schedule hasbeen discussed and agreed with the Goverrment during loan negotiations.

G. Disbursements

4.15 Disbursements would be made on the basis of 53% of total expendi-tures (which is the estimated foreign cost component) for the highway improve-ment works and 70% of total expenditures for consulting services. Based onthis and on the project implementation schedule, an Estimated Schedule ofDisbursements (Annex F) has been prepared. The schedule has been discussedand agreed with the Government during loan negotiations. Any surplus remainingin the Loan Account on completion of the project would be cancelled.

H. Environmental Impact

4.16 None of the project elements will adversely affect the enviroument.The planned bypasses for the towns of Hammamet, Nabeul, Beni Khiar, Sousse,El-Djem and Sfax vill relieve the urban areas from traffic noise and airpollution.

V. ECONOMIC EVALUATION

A. Main Benefits and Beneficiaries

5.01 The highway lengths to be improved represent sections of Tunisia'shighway network most in need of improvement. The present transportation costson these lengths are unduly high and the improvements will reduce vehicleoperating costs, journey times, accidents and highway maintenance costs. Ad-ditionally, a shift to larger (more economic) vehicles will be possible andincreased travel comfort available.

- 14 -

5.02 The routes on which the project sections are locatied are inter-regional. Benefits will therefore accrue to both long dista13cceàad localtraffic. The bypass sections on GP1 and MC 27/28 will enabla tthrough trafficparticularly trucks to avoid the towns of Sousse, El-Djem, Sfax, Hammamet,Nabeul and Beni Khiar.

5.03 The possible effect of the improvement of sections GP1, GP5, GP6and GP8 on railway transport between Tunis-Sfax, Tunis-Bizerte, and Tunis-Algiers has been examined. The road improvements are not expected to signi-ficantly divert traffic from the railways which specialize in long distancebulk cargo.

5.04 The project roads serve important agricultural areas with smalland medium-sized farms producing olives (GP1), cereals (GP6), oranges (MC 27and MC 28) and cattle (GP5 and GP6). Other important commodities that wouldbe affected by the improved facilities are processed agricultural commodities,fish products, bottled beverages, fuels, chemical and light industrial pro-ducts, and construction materials.

5.05 The project is well timed to supplement specific ongoing and pro-posed projects such as the Medjerda and Nebhana Irrigation Projects (LN 1068),the Tourism Infrastructure Project (CR 329), the Sousse-Nord Tourism Project<1973 and 1975 IFC Investment), the enlargement of citrus fruit and oliveplantations in Sousse, the Northern Tunisian Water Master Plan, and the devel-opment of industrial parks in Tunis, Bizerte, Menzel Bourguiba, Nabeul, Sousseand Sfax.

5.06 The Government controls tariffs and thereby limits profits onvehicle operations. Since the tariffs are related (amongst other thinge) toroad conditions, transport cost savings from the improved roads will largelybe passed on to small farmers and manufacturers, consumers and passengers.The project will assist the Government in its objective to stimulate economicdevelopment and regional integration.

Consulting Services

5.07 The project also includes provision of consulting services fortechnical assistance for (a) transport planning, and (b) a rural roads pro-gram. The technical assistance for transport planning would update the 1968Transport Survey and provide on-the-job training and is expected to help en-sure that future investments in the transport sector would be made accordingto an integrated transport plan based on economic criteria and reliable basicdata, including fleet statistics. The technical assistance for a rural roadsprogram would provide services to assist the MPW in the preparation of aprogram which is expected to foster agricultural development.

- 15 -

B. Economic Evaluation

Highway Improvements

5.08 Based on the most probable estinates of construction costs, vehicleoperating costs, time costs, base year traffic and traffic growth, the pro-posed investments in the project roads sections produce economic returns(ER's) ranging from 18.0% to 42.0% (Table 13). These ER's range from 16.5%to 36.0% if travel time savings are not considered. The ER for the roadimprovement program as a whole is 33.2% (26.4% without travel time savings).Sensitivity analyses testing the ER's of this program gave a return of 28.3%assuming 25% cost overrun, and a return of 26.7%, assuming a 25% reduction ofbenefits (Table 14).

5.09 For the purpose of economic analysis, the road improvements aredivided into sections according to physical characteristics and traffic con-ditions. Details of these sections on which the 1973 average daily traffic(ADT) ranged from about 900 to 4,000 are shown in Table 13. The economicbenefits of alternative improvements for each road section (aggregated overan expected life of 20 years) have been assessed to determine the optimaltreatment in terms of alignment, width, pavement strength and timing.

5.10 Traffic forecasts per type of vehicle are based on past traffictrends, origin and destination studies, and expected population growth.Estimated traffic growth during 1973-79 on the various project sectionsranges from 2.3% to 24.0% per annum. The latter percentage relates to GP8traffic near Tunis, where traffic diversion from MC 31 is expected. Corres-ponding annual traffic growth rates during 1979-80 range from 5.4% to 14.5%.

5.11 Traffic forecasts are conservative since they do not include gene-rated traffic attributable to the ongoing projects referred to in paragraph5.05, while other generated traffic is negligible. Particularly the improve-ment of GP8 is expected to play a significant role in the development of in-dustrial parks in flenzel Bourguiba and Bizerte. It is, however, difficultto predict the benefits attributed by such road improvements, to industrialdevelopment.

5.12 The average unit saving in vehicle operating costs is approximately15%. The operating costs for the six vehicle categories considered (passen-ger cars, vans, trucks with a loading capacity equal to or less than 3.5 tons,trucks with a loading capacity greater than 3.5 tons, trailers and buses)are shown in Table 15. They are based on the average characteristics oftypical vehicles in Table 16. Hourly savings associated with working andnon-working triDs have been estimated at 100%2' and 20% of average hourly earn-ings in the relevant regions, respectively. The number of commuters on theproposed project roads is relativelv small: their trins are treated as non-working ones.

- 16 -

Consulting Services

5.13 Benefits from the consulting services are extremely difficult toquantify. The assistance for transport planning should helr ensure thatfuture investments in the sector would maximize socio-economic benefits.In addition the MTC staff would receive on-the-job training to enable them tocontinue the planning process upon departure of the consultants. The mainpurpose of the rural roads study is to identify and analyze rural roads forconstruction or improvement in areas where their inadequacy is a seriousobstacle to agricultural development.

VI. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.01 Agreement having been reached on the principal issues discussed inChapters II and IV, based on the economic lives of the roads or road sectionsto be improved, the project is suitable for a Bank loan of US$28.0 millionto the Government of Tunisia for a 24-year term, including four years of grace.

December 1975

APPRAISAJ. OP EVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND hlGhWAY PROJECT DEUXIrIIE PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Rail Transport; Main Freight. 1961-74

Transports ferroviaires; :';arohandises transport6es. 1961-74

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967Freight N-rther- Southern Northern Soothern Narthe-n Southern Narther- Southern N-rthe-n Soothern- N-ther- Soothero Northe-n Southern Marchandis.s('000 T-km) Systen Systen System Systen System Syster Systea Dysten Systen lysten System System lystem Systen ('U000 T-ki)

Phasphates n5a. na n.a. ns. n.a. 0.0. n.0. n,a. n.0. n.a. n.s. n.a. 12,432 709,814 Phosphates

Iran are n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0. 163,673 - Minerai de fer

Cerenls n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.. .n.a. 0.0. 0.0. n.a. n.a. 70,665 8,306 Céreales

Building 0.0. 0.0. n.0. n.a. n.a. n.s. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.. n.. 41,209 8,234 Matérfsis demate-ials construction

Oth6r -arga . n.a . n.a. n.a. n.a. n.. .. .a. n.a. n.a. . 8228 45591 Autre fret

Total 441 521 420 546 440 589 440 687 488 746 426 768 426,207 767,945 Total

Million passengers-km/Millions de vayageurs-kI

Pas songerTraffic Trafic vayage.rs

Min lines 280.8 301.8 310.4 318.5 347.5 288.0 Lignes principales

suburban 99.5 107.9 116.3 123.2 136.2 120.4 Banlieu

Total 380.3 409.7 426.7 441.7 483.7 408.4 Total

1968 1969 ote Nt 1f71 19782 1973 - 1974Freight Worther- Southe NrSe r e the7 the Ntrther- Southern- N-ther- Southern Marchandises('000 T-kI) System Syste Syster Systen System System System Systen Systen Synten ('000 T-km)

Phosphates 48,468 796,150 39,656 592,606 74,428 700,661 27,534 770,393 51,152 810,373 856,633 1,006,581 Phosphates

Iran are 199,314 - 173,443 - 207,185 - 208,228 - 203,158 - 192,262 193,438 Minerai de fer

Cereals 66,948 1,822 72,760 2,084 89,589 780 86,128 787 98,573 638 95,930 79,607 Cér6ales

Building 59,369 3,472 82,392 4,493 107,637 7,161 129,796 7,187 121,108 6,746 90,952 81,008 Matériaox dematetials construction

Other -argo 110,911 41,067 88.285 37.700 100,207 40,620 104.122 37.386 113.224 37.333 156,191 161,339 Astre fret

Total 485,037 842, 511 456, 536 636, 883 579, 046 749, 222 555,808 815, 753 587, 215 855, 090 1,391,968 1,521,973 Total

Million oasseoger-kml/ilîians de voyageors--k

PassengetTraffic Trsfit voyageurs

Main lines 312.4 298.8 293.4 312.3 337.4 341.0 339.8 Lignes prinaipales

Suborban 124.8 140.2 148.9 157.9 168.1 185.4 194.3 Banlieu

Total 437.2 439.0 442.3 470.2 505.5 526.4 534.1 Total

1/ Integration af the Northern and Soothern Syste-s (Sfax Gafsa)/Integration des Reseoa. Nord et Sud (Sfax Gafsa)

Soorne: S.N.C.F.T.

Den..ber/Daeneb.e 1976

APPRAISAL OF FVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUtNISIA Sea Transport. 1961-73 TESISIE

Transports maritimes, 1961-73

UnitUnité 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 197

Ships-" Navires-Arrivals and Sailings Nr. 7176 6s88 6622 7226 8272 8074 7350 6850 7656 7073 7662 8203 Entrées et Sortiesof which: Tunis Goulette 4076 3812 3890 4092 3754 4118 3706 3354 3761 3640 3748 3975 dont: Tunis Goulette

Bizerte 504 428 490 792 1240 1212 1210 1270 1680 1159 865 968 BizerteSfax 2002 1796 1762 1866 2672 2274 1940 1784 1620 1729 2391 2412 SfaxSousse 594 552 480 476 606 470 494 442 595 545 658 848 Sousse

Net tonnage million 10.3 9.5 10.1 11.3 12.0 12.9 12.1 12.4 13.5 13.1 25.1 26.9 Tonneaux de jauge nette-of which: Tunis Goulette 6.2 s.6 5.8 6.1 6.o 6.6 6.2 5.5 6.3 6.1 12.2 13.4 dont: Tunis Goulette

Bizerte 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.2 3.1 3.7 3.6 5.4 5.5 BizerteSfax 2.6 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.6 6.o 6.4 SfaxSousse 0.7 o.6 o.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 o.8 1.5 1.6 Sousse

Passengersi-/ 1000 Passagersa/Arrivals 31.5 35.8 35.4 39.0 36.4 40.8 46.o 47.3 60.6 71.8 86.2 94.6 EntréesDepartures 65.4 51.7 41.5 54.7 40.1 40.3 51.5 52.9 71.6 81.8 95.8 103.9 Sorties

Total 96.9 87.5 76.9 93.7 76.5 81.1 97.5 100.2 132.2 153.6 182.0 198.5 Totalof which: Tunis Goulette 87.9 84.7 75.3 92.5 73.6 81.4 91.5 100.0 131.8 124.6 171.6 .. dont: Tunis Goulette

Bizerte 7.8 - 0.8 0.2 o.6 - - - - .. .. .. BizerteSfax - - - - - - - - - .. .. .. SfaxSousse 1.2 2.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 3.6 0.2 0.4 .. .. .. Sousse

Cargo unloaded-' lOOOT Marchandises débarquées-Solid fuels 48 34 42 30 50 94 81 106 120 159 101 141 CharbonsLiquid fuels 493 505 624 1153 1268 620 798 1568 1845 1905 2073 2209 Combustibles liquidesCereals 575 428 139 121 259 274 408 347 537 447 244 274 CéréalesOtler goods 637 647 700 888 884 1804 1733 910 915 948 1075 1185 Autres marchandises

Total 1753 1614 1505 2192 2461 2792 3020 2931 3417 3459 3493 3809 Totalof which: Tunis Goulette 1208 1064 1003 1002 966 1092 1214 1148 1293 1247 1355 1495 dont: Tunis Goulette

Bizerte 76 136 143 744 937 1115 1203 1227 1412 1537 1436 1500 BizerteSfax 332 297 299 395 474 515 513 483 614 557 610 696 SfaxSousse 137 117 60 51 84 70 90 73 98 118 92 119 Sousse

Cargo loaded-a OOOT Marchandises embarquées-Phosphates 1940 1921 2210 2425 2681 2623 2604 2824 2260 2520 2797 2702 PhosphatesIron ore 895 689 783 911 969 1176 668 667 801 672 957 F37 Minerai de ferEspartograss 81 78 50 51 64 47 49 41 43 50 35 26 AlfaCement 93 86 146 96 362 37 - 61 37 67 23 140 CimentSait - - 301 202 21 295 225 329 246 170 197 31- SelCereals 29 31 132 117 57 110 - - - 32 5 7 CéréalesOther goods 567 665 464 1051 968 1126 1220 1225 1268 1288 1002 152- Autres marchandisesTotal 3605 3468 4086 4853 5122 5414 47 5147 465 4799 1046 s06- Totalof which: Tunis Goulette 1448 1289 1475 1457 1379 1587 1158 1021 1161 1164 994 10?1 dont: Tunis Goulette

Bizerte 113 165 157 871 884 992 854 1034 1123 1086 1051 109, BizerteSfax 1903 1854 2258 2382 2628 2649 2s67 2920 2225 2397 2834 2741 SfaxSousse 141 160 196 143 231 186 187 172 146 152 167 207 Sousse

_a/ Excluding traffic in ports of Gabes, Cekhira and Tabarka/non compris le traffic des ports de Gabes, Cekhira, et Tabarka. ." Since 1971, gross tonnage/A partir de 1971, tonneaux de jauge brute.

cSource: Institut National de la Statistique

December/Decembre 1975

APpRAISAL-OF EVALUATIOU 12 ̀.

A SECOZ;g F.IG<r;AY FROJECT DE EXIFE` FRO.JET RVtEl

12IINISIE

Air Trarnsoorr. 1961-73

Transpo-ts aeri.ns. 1961-73

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

Passenger Traffic (thousands) Passagers (milliers)

International services Services internationaux

Scheduled flights .. 184.6 l94.3 234.7 269.1 285.9 328.9 382.6 476.6 541.8 642.1 614.0 671.2 Vol réguliers

Charters _ 8._ 14.6 23 8 57.4 125.7 139.8 230.0 218.1 243.6 405.1 971.8 884.5 Charters

Total 178.7 192.9 208.9 258.5 326.5 411.6 468.7 612.6 694.7 785.4 1047.2 1585.8 1555.7 Total

Domestic Service Services intérieurs-

Scheduled flights .. 3.9 5.1 9.2 12.9 11.1 14.7 23.5 59.4 39.4 43.0 . .. Vol rdégliers

Charters .. - - - - 29.8 46.0 79.7 156.0 150.6 285.0 _ . Charters

Total *- 3'9 5.1 9.2 12.9 39.9 60.7 103.2 215.4 190.0 328.0 114.1 125.2 Total

Transit 9.6 8.4 71 15.1 23.4 y,o 32-4 32./. PR1 5.9 4.0 Ž4 71.7 passagers en transit

Total Passenger Traffic 188.3 205.2 221.1 282.8 362.8 488.5 561.8 748.2 938.2 840.3 1378.6 17m7.3 1752.6 Total Passagers

International Freight - 2.04 2.40 5.20 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Messageries Internationales

International Freight (thousand tons) - 2.04 2.42 2.40 2.66 3.25 3.60 3-90 4.43 4.77 5.20 7.41 7.58 (milliers de tonnes)

Aireraft sovements Mouvements d'avions

Tunis Carthage .. 4825 5427 6596 7303 9971 11174 12178 14153 15800 17536 ?0280 21080 Tunis Carthage

Jerba Mellita - - - - - 1012 1431 1784 2338 2549 3222 4183 3822 Jerba Nellita

Skanes MIonastir - -- - 246 1622 1032 1894 2722 3319 Skants )bnastir

Total 4825 5427 6596 7303 10983 12605 14208 18113 19381 22652 27185 28227 Total

/ Since 1972 traffic of Monastir and Jerba is tncluded in "international services"/Depuis 1972 le trafic des aéroports de Jerba et Monastir est compté dans

les "services internationaux".

Source: Direction des Transports

December/Decewbre 1975 n.

r,

EVALUATION D'UNAPPRAISAL OF

DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIERA SECOND HIC11NAY PROJECT

TUNISIETUNISIA

Actual and Planned Investmentsby Sector, 1962-76; (Millions of Dinars, current prices)

Realisations et previsions d'investissements par secteur, 1962-76: (en millions de dinars, aux prix courante)

1962-1964 1965-1968 1969-1972 1962-1972 Plan ProiecçtioD/Préviaions du Plan(a) (b) (a) (b) (a) (b) (a) (b) 1973 1974 1975 1976 - 1

Val. vall. Val. VaVal. -a!

Gross fixed capital formation 330.0 291.6 100.0 455.0 549.0 100.0 617.0 666.6 100.0 1402.0 1507.2 100.0 257.2 301.2 306.5 329.3 1194.2 100.0 Formation brute de capital fixe

Agriculture 63.1 21.6 150.5 122.7 22.3 128.0 109.6 16.4 295.4 19.6 32.5 44.4 50.4 50.4 177.7 14.9 Agriculture

Mining, crude oil 24.7 8.5 70.9 12.9 67.7 73.1 11.0 168.7 11.2 29.4 31.3 37.2 46.4 144.3 12.1 Industries extractives et pétrole

Energy, power and water 9.0 3.1 141.0 33.2 6.o 48.6 56.9 8.5 99.1 6.6 24.2 20.0 17.1 16.9 78.2 6.5 E.ergie et eau

Manufacturing 35.5 12.2 59.9 10.9 63.6 75.7 11.4 171.1 11.4 40.8 44.6 38.1 36.7 160.2 13.4 Industries manufacturières

Transport id communications 24.5 8.4 55.0 44.1 8.0 96.3 87.1 13.1 155.7 10.3 41.6 52.2 49.4 52.5 195.7 16.4 Transports et coasunications

Housing 52.7 18.0 16.8 64.7 11.8 51.3 92.9 13.9 210.3 13.9 32.6 37.7 36.7 37.5 144.5 12.1 Logement

Tourism 23.6 8.1 49.7 9.1 60.0 74.2 11.1 147.5 9.8 24.1 28.1 29.6 31.8 113.6 9.5 Tourisme

Other services 4.3 1.5 91.7 8.0 1.5 11.9 13.2 2.0 25.5 1.7 4.8 4.2 4.6 4.7 18.3 1.5 Autres services

Infrastructure 54.2 18.6 95.8 17.5 89.6 83.9 12.6 233.9 15.5 27.2 38.7 43.4 52.4 161.7 13.6 Infrastructure

(a) Plan Projections/Prévisions du Plan(b) Actuals/Réalisations

Source: Mi.cccdu °an.


ai

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as's

Si

i s~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~P

t` s S

APPRAISAL OP? EVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND HlCnWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA Actual and Planned Investmentsby Mode.1962-76 (current prices) TUN'ISIE

Realisations et previsions d'investissements par mode,1962-76 (aux prix courants)

Projected investment p.a./Actuals/Réalisations Prévisions annuelles d'investissement

Total 62-72Toa7-61962-64 1965-68 1969-72 Dinars (000) % 1973 1974 1975 1976 Dinars (000) ç

Road Transport Transport routierInfrastructure 7,973 9,305 14,796 32,074 18.8 9,738 12,329 15,196 16,686 53,949 -/ 27.5 InfrastructureEquipment 4,411 11,389 15,508 31.308 18.3 4,681 7,893 9,774 11,092 33,440 17.1 Matériel

Sub-total 12,384 20,694 30,304 63,382 37.1 14,419 20,222 24,970 27,778 87,389 44.6 Sous total

Rail Transport Transport ferroviaireInfrastructure 202 1,801 2,282 4,285 2.5 4,314 2,705 1,425 3,973 12,417 6.3 InfrastructureEquipment 1 956 4,813 7.487 14.256 B." 3,133 5,100 4 189 2 955 15.377 7-9 Matériel

Sub-total 2,158 6,614 9,769 18,541 10.8 7,447 7,805 5i614 6,928 27,794 14.1 Sous total

Maritime Transport Transport maritimeInfrastructure - - 11,200 11,200 6.5 3,477 3,836 2,240 1,376 10,929 5.6 InfrastructureEquipment 884 1,291 7,864 10,039 5.9 3,151 5,608 1,495 7,160 17,414 8.9 oatérielPorts - - 4,000 4,000 2.3 351 452 195 160 1,158 0.6 PortuaireShipping 884 1,291 3.864 6.039 3.6 2,800 5,156 1,300 7.000 16,256 8.5 C.T.N.Sub-total 884 1,291 19,064 21,239 12.4 6,628 9,444 3,735 8,536 28,343 14.5 Sous total

Air Transport Transport aériensInfrastructure 2,142 2,215 15,782 20,139 11.8 4,675 3,978 2,799 2,750 14,202 7.3 InfrastructureFquipment 1,557 4 069 5.860 11,486 6j7 4,550 4.150 4,950 250 13,900 7.1 ,fatdriel

Sub-total 3,699 6 21, 31,625 18.5 9,225 8,128 7,749 3,000 28,102 14.4 Sous total

Communication 3,049 4,005 10,368 17,422 10.2 3,124 6,242 7,257 6,312 22,935 11.7 Communications(equipment) (Matériel)

Meteo - - 1,179 1,179 0.7 747 333 136 - 1,216 0.6 Météorologie(infrastructure) (infrastructure)

Oil Pipelines - - 17,400 17,400 10.2 - - - - - - Oleoduc(equipment) (Matériel)

GENERAL TOTAL 22,174 38,888 109.726 170.788 100.0 41,590 52.174 49.461 52.554 195.779 100.0 TOTAL GENERALInfrastructure 10,317 13,321 45,239 68,877 40.3 22,951 23,181 21,796 24,785 92,713 47.4 InfrastructureEquipment 11,857 25,567 64,487 101,911 59.7 18,639 28,993 27,665 27,769 103,066 52.6 Matériel

1/ Including D. 5.0 million for Tourism Roads and D. 14.5 million for local agencies and for flood damage/Y compris infrastructure touristique de 5.0 millionde Dinar et compensation aux collectivité locales et inondations, 14.5 millions de Dinars.

Source: Direction des Transports et Ministere du Plan

December/fecembre 19 75

APPRAISAL OF EVALUATION D'UN


TUNISIA TUNISIE

Highway Network 1975

Reseau Routier 1975

Carriage way Length Administrative ClassificationRoad Surface Width Total % of (de) Class fication Administrative UnclassifiedChaussée Chaussée Largeur Longeur Total Primary1' Secondary2l Tertiary.3/ Non Classé'

(m) (km) (km) (km) (km) (km)

(a) Paved 6.5 and overRevetue et plus 735 4.4

5.5 - 6.5 1,525 9.04.5 - 5.5 3,268 19.4less than 4.5 2,166 12.9moins que 7,694 45.7 3,243 3,180 1,025 246

(b) Gravel 4.5 - 7.0 779 4.6 42 252 440 45Crave

(c) Earth 4.5 - 6.0 8,377 49.7 784 3,050 4,433 110Terre

Total Highway Network 16,850 100.0 4,069 6,482 5,898 401Total Reseau Routier

1/ Routes de Grand Parcours (GP)2/ Routes de Moyenne Communications (MC)3/ Routes Vicinales d'Etat (RVE)

Source: Direction des Ponts et Chaussées - Service des Statistiques Routières.


t ~~~~~~~~t r

APPRAISAL OF EVALUATION D' UN

A SECOND HIGIW.;AY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Velicle Fleet and Road Traffic,1961-73

Parc des véhlicules et transports routiers,1961-73

Six Months/Six Mois1961 1962 1965 1964 1965 1966 1 1968 1969 1970 1971 oi

Length of Roads (in kilometers) Longueur du réseau routier (en km)Main roads 8697 8786 9010 10210 9970 10303 10482 10482 10482 10482 10482 10482 ,. Routes de grande circulationFeeder roads 6946 6906 5593 4544 4836 5141 5603 5603 5603 5603 5603 5603 . Routes vicinales

Number of vehicles licensed on Situation du parc au 31 décembreDecember 31 (thousands) 98.8 100.7 105.2 108.1 112.9 118.1 123.8 126.7 132.4 140.9 153.4 171.1 181.2 (milliers)Private cars 47.0 47.0 48.0 49.1 51.2 53.7 56.7 59.0 62.3 66.4 72.1 80.4 85.0 Voitures de tourismeCommercial vehicles 26.7 25.8 28.3 28.9 30.1 31.5 32.4 33.1 34.9 37.3 41.5 47.2 50.4 Véhicules utilitairesMotorcycles 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.2 MotosTractors 11.9 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.6 18.4 18.7 19.3 19.7 21.1 22.6 25.1 26.4 TracteursTrailers and others 3.6 2.4 2.8 4.0 4.4 4.7 6.0 5.6 5.6 6.3 7.2 8.3 9.2 Remorques et autres

New registrations (units) 6861 6169 5816 6557 4986 5649 5035 7261 5946 8699 12839 17827 1023 Immatriculations (unités)Private cars 2904 2906 2151 2367 2104 2753 3220 4044 3364 4217 5824 8503 4692 Voitures de tourismeCommercial vehicles 2931 2385 2608 2562 1261 1586 1009 1788 1852 2436 4383 5500 3977 Véhicules stilitairesMotorcycles 221 172 215 144 1s6 138 205 124 142 99 159 106 53 MotosTractors 356 401 335 900 1041 854 322 659 386 1428 1650 2465 1364 TracteursTrailers and others 449 305 507 584 424 318 279 646 202 519 823 1173 --2 Remorques et autres

Road Transport (public sector) Transports Routiers (secteur semi-public)Ton-Km (millions) .. '' *' 126 174 240 312 393 440 470 490 ., , Tonnes-Km. (million)Passengers-Rm (millions) ., ,. .. 560 631 7c4 940 1013 1070 1130 1200 .. . Voyageurs-Km (million)

Employment . . . 2137 5385 5815 6606 7562 8153 9203 10440 .. . Emploi

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et Direction des Transports

December/Decembre 197c

APPRAISAL OP EVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND HIGb'WAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Road Traffic Estimate

Previsions de trafic routier

Freight/Marchandines Average Amnual Growth Freight/Marchandises Average Annual Growth Freight/MarchandisesTon-ki (million) rate/Taux =oyens de Ton-ki (million) rate/Taux moyens de Ton-ki (million)

1972 croissance 1972-76 % 1976 croissance 1976-80 % 1980

Trucks 558 4.40 663 8.00 902 Camions

Vans 146 9.05 207 8.55 287 Camionettes

Trailers 126 4.25 149 6.00 190 Remorques

Semi-trailers 27 5.30 119 9.00 169 Semi remorques

Total 927 5.25 1,138 8.00 1,548 Total

Passenger-km/ Average Annual Growth Passenger-km/ Average Annual Growth Passenger-km/Voyageurs-km rate/Taux moyens de Voyageurs-km rate/Taux moyens de Voyageurs-km

(million) croissance (million) croissance (million)1972 1972-76 % 1976 1976-80 % 1980

Passenger cars 2,028 7.85 2,745 7.10 3,612 Voiture de tourism

Taxis 248 7.75 334 7.26 448 Taxis

Limousines 333 7.90 452 7.30 598 Limousines

Commercial Vehicles 243 7.75 327 7.05 429 Voitures coerciales

City buses 1,956 7.10 2,574 7.45 3,432 Autobus urbains

Intercity buses 1,073 7.50 1,434 6.65 1,856 Autobus interurbains

Tourist boses 51 7.55 682 6.80 888 Autocars touristiques

Total 6,392 7.55 8,548 7.10 11,258 Total

Source: Ministry of Transport and Commnications and Mission Estimates/ aMinistere de Transport et Communications et Estimation de la Mission

Lecemberecembre 1975



TUNISIA TUNISIEDesign Characteristics of Project Roads

Caracteristiques Géométriques des Routes du Projet

Tunis- Mornaghia- Beja- Tunis- Hammamet-Unit Sfax Medjez Jendouba Bizerte KorbaUnité (GP1) (GP5) (GP6) (GP8) (MC27/28)

Terrain - Flat/ Rolling/ Rolling/ Rolling/ Flatt TerrainPlat Vallonné Vallonné Vallonnes Plat

Design Speed km/h 100 100 100 100 80 Vitesse de baseMax. Gradient % 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 Declivité max. enrampeWidth of Carriageway m 700 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Largeur de la chausséeWidth of Shoulders m 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Largeur de l'accotemetMin. Horizontal Curves m 900 900 900 900 650 Rayon en planMin. V'.rtical Curves Rayon min. vertic.

- Summit m 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000 10,000 - Angle saillant- Sags m 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200 3,000 - Angle rentrant

Max. Single Axle Load ton 13 13 13 13 13 Max. charge d'essieuType of Wearing Surface - -…-------- -asphaltic concrete/enrobs…-- Couche de roulementBridge Width m --- 10.50 m with 7.00 m carriageway----------- Largeur de pont

10.50 m avec 7.00 m de chausséeSe

croe

Source: Direction des Ponts et Chaussée <

December/Dlecembre 1975.

Table/Tableau 10


A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEM4E PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Highway Expenditures: 1966-75(D'OOO)

Dépenses pour routes: 1966-75

TotalMaintenance11 Investment Highway

Year Expenditures- Expenditures ExpendituresAnnée Entretien Investissements Total

1966 2,550 1,650 4,200

1967 2,530 2,170 4,700

1968 2,610 2,170 4,780

1969 2,690 950 3,560

1970 2,590 1,030 3,620

1971 2,840 1,360 4,200

1972 3,110 1270-/ 15,380

1973 3,480 7,450 10,930

1974 3,730 14,290 18,020

1975 4,620 12,630 17,250

1/ Including administrative costs attributable to. highwaymaintenance/Compris dépenses administrative attributablesà l'entretien routier.

2/ Including D8.8 million for repair of 1969 flood damage/ComprisD8.8 million pour réparations des dégâts de l'inondation en 1969.

Source: Direction des Ponts et Chaussees


Table/Tableau 11

APPRAISAL OFEVALUATION D'UN

A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECTDEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIATUNISIE

Cost Estimates for Highway Improvement Works

Estimation des coÛts pour travaux d'amélioration des routes

Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Foreign Travaux d'améliorationHighway Improvement Local Devises Total Local Devises Total Devises des routes

------- (DI0O) ------- ------ (Us$',0O) ----- (b)1. GP1: Sousse-Sfax 1. GP1: Sousse-Sfax

a) Sousse Bypass 1,645 1,855 3,500 4,273 4,818 9,091 53 a) Déviation Sousseb) El-Djem Bypass 194 218 412 504 566 1,070 53 b) Déviation El-Djemc) Sfax Bypass 517 583 1,100 1,343 1,514 2,857 53 c) Déviation Sfax

2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjez-el-Bab 768 867 1,635 1,995 2,252 4,247 53 2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjez-el-Bab3. GP6: Beja-Jendouba 705 795 1,500 1,831 2,065 3,896 53 3. GP6: Beja-Jendouba4. GP8: Tunis-Bizerte 1,128 1,272 2,400 2,930 3,303 6,233 53 4. GP8: Tunis-Bizerte5. MC27/MC28: Hammamet-Korba 1.194 1,346 2.540 3,101 3.496 6.597 53 5. MC27/MC28: Hammamet-Korba

Subtotal Improvements: 6,151 6,936 13,087 15,977 18,014 33,991 53 Soutotal Amélioration:

Contingencies Imprévus

6. Price Escalation 6. Escalation de prixa) 32% on l.a) 526 594 1,120 1,366 1,543 2,909 53 a) 32% sur l.a)b) 24% on l.b) 47 52 99 122 135 257 53 b) 24% sur l.b)c) 32% on 1.c) 165 187 352 429 485 914 53 c) 32% sur l.c)d) 40.9% on 2. 314 355 669 816 922 1,738 53 d) 40.9% sur 2.e) 55.3% on 3. 390 440 830 1,013 1,143 2,156 53 e) 55.3% sur 3.f) 50% on 4. 564 636 1,200 1,465 1,652 3,117 53 f) 50% sur 4.g) 32% on 5. 382 431 813 992 1,119 2,111 53 g) 32% sur 5.

Subtotal Price Escalation: 2,388 2,695 5,083 6,203 6,999 13,202 53 Soutotal Escalation de prix:

Physical Quantités

7. 10% on Subtotal Improvements 615 694 1.309 1,598 1,801 3,399 53 10% sur Soutotal Amélioration

9,154 10,325 19.979 23_778 26_814 50_592 53

1/ Contingencies for price escalation are estimated on expected price increases of 14% in 1976 and 12% in each ofthe years following thereafter./Les imprévus pour escalation de prix sont estimés sur des hausses des prix de14% en 1976 et 12% chaque année apres 1976.

2/ Assumed implementation scheduled for:/Programme d'exécution assumé:l.a), I.c) and 5.: Construction starts in early 1976 with 50% of works carried out each in 1976 and 1977/l.a), l.c) et 5. : Commencement des travaux début 1976 avec 50% des travaux achevés 1976 et 50% 1977.1.b): Construction is carried out in 1976./l.b): Travaux achevés 100% 1976.2.: Construction starts late 1976 with 5% of works carried out in 1976, 85% in 1977 and 10% in 1978./2.: Commencement des travaux fin 1976 avec 5% des travaux achevés 1976, 85% 1977 et 10% 1978.3.: Construction starts in late 1977 with 10% of works carried out in 1977 and 90% in 1978./3.: Commencement des travaux fin 1977 avec 10% des travaux achevés 1977 et 90% 1978.4.: Construction starts in 1977 with 50% of works carried out in 1977 and 50% in 1978./4.: Commencement des travaux 1977 avec 50% des travaux achevés 1977 et 50% 1978.

Source: Mission Estimate/Estimation de la Mission

December/Decembre I,75

Table/Tableau 12



TUNISIA TUNISIE

Cost Estimates for Consultants' Servicesand Summary Cost Estimate

Estimations des coûts oour services deconsultants et estimation sommaire

Consultants' Services/Services de Consultants

Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total ForeignLocal Devises Total Local Devises Total Devises

Studies/Etudes ------------ (DWODO) - - -_________ (%1S$'O00) ---------

1. Review of Traneoort Study 51 120 171 133 312 445 70Revue de olan de transport

2. Rural Roads Study 80 188 268 209 486 695 70Etude des routes rurales

Subtotal Studies: 131 308 439 342 798 1,140 70Soutotal études:

Contingencies/Imprévus

3. 38.6% Price Escalation 51 118 169 132 308 440 7038.6% Escalation de prix

4. 10% Quantity Increases 13 31 44 34 80 114 70105/ Quantités

Subtotal Contingencies: 64 149 213 166 388 554 70Soutotal Imprévus:

Total: 195 457 652 508 1,186 1,694 70

Summary Cost Estimate/Estimation Pommaire

Local Foreign Total Local Foreign TotalLocal Devises Total Local Devises Total------------- (D'O00)------ (US$000)------------

A. Highway Improvement 6,151 6,936 13,087 15,977 18,014 33,991Amélioration des routes

B. Studies/Etudes 131 308 439 342 798 1,140

Subtotal: 6,282 7,244 13,526 16,319 18,812 35,131Soutotal:

Contingencies/Imprévus

C. Price Escalation 2,439 2,813 5,252 6,335 7,307 13,642Escalation de vrix

D. Quantity Increases 628 725 1,353 1,632 1,881 3,513Quantités

Subtotal: 3,067 3,538 6,605 7,967 9,188 17,155Soutotal:

Total: 9,349 10,782 20,131 24,286 28,000 52,286




A SECOND IIIGHWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIEPhysical, Financial and Econonil Data cf Highway ImProvement Works

Information physique, financiere et econonique du programme des amériolations

2/ 3/--------- ER- /TR --------- -------- FYE-/TRI --------

Total Financial Econonmic 'ith Value Without Value With Value Without ValueChainage Length 1/ CGut Cot cf Tine of Time cf Tine uf Tine

Peint Longueu-r ---- ADT- TM- Coult - Cout 6 Avec valeur Sans valeur Avec valeur Sans valeurkilometrique total 1973 1979 1988 financier econonique de tenps de tenps de temps de tenps

(kl) (kb) (D' 000) (D' 000)

1. GP1: Sousse-Sfax 1. GPI: Sousse-Sfaxa) Sousse Byp.s. 128,500 158,040 32060 3,999 7678 17,186 ) 3,215 2,578.8 34.5 23.7 26.3 15.3 s) Susse dev 1stion

MC82-Section 17 3,580 4,0 1,2:,98 504 9,399 MC82-Troncon 17b) EI-Dje- Bypass 202,750 206,300 3,220 1,132 2,173 7,863 378 304.7 25.3 18.7 17.4 9.8 b) El-Djen deviatiocc) Sfax Bypass 264,500 272,570 8,020 1,658 3,014 6,248 1,009 796.8 25.7 20.6 12.8 5.0 c) Sfax deviation

2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjez 16,000 54,218 38,218 2,117 3,177 5,842 1,500 1,205.6 42.0 35.7 36.9 30.7 2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjea

3. GP6: Beja-Jendouba 45,000 55,095 10,905 1,472 2,287 4,299 32.1 31.7 31.2 28.6 3. GP6: Beja-Jendouba55,095 69,000 13,095 1,016 1,585 2,922 27.4 27.0 26.7 17.669,000 93,225 22,225 1,115 1,735 3,257 27.8 27.8 20.1 20.1

All Sections: 45,000 93,225 46,225 - - - 1,372.5 1,098.0 30.8 30.2 29.5 29.1 Tous troncons

4. GP8: Tunis-Bizerte -10,750 0,000 10,750 1,118 4,110 8,217 40.0 36.0 37.5 33.9 4. GP8: Tunis-BiEerte(PKO.000 - PR14.300) 14,300 23,740 9,440 2,956 4,313 8,463 32.8 24.0 20.0 19.1 (PRO.000 = RP14.300)

23,740 26,860 3,120 2,956 4,313 8,463 33.8 24.5 15.6 7.826,860 38,400 11,540 2,362 3,446 5,906 24.9 24.9 10.2 10.238,400 42,245 3,845 1,840 2,684 4,310 18.0 16.5 4.4 4,442,245 45,360 3,115 1,840 2,684 4,310 29.0 23.4 16.9 13.445,360 53,250 7,890 1,314 1,610 2,759 19.2 19.2 5.3 5.353,250 57,900 4,650 1,768 2,166 2,712 24.3 24.3 10.9 10.957,900 61,270 3,370 1,982 2,428 4,161 35.0 28.0 23.2 23.2

All Sections -10,750 61,270 57,720 - - - 2,190 1,796 34.5 30.5 28.7 27.1 Tous troncons

5. MC27/28-Hammamet-Korba 108,000 118,290 10,290 3,775 5,771 12,989 42.0 30.3 33.2 22.1 5, MC27/28-Hammamet-Korba118,290 125,600 7,310 2,680 5,421 11,990 37.3 29

25,000 31,440 6,440 884 1,788 3,955 7 29.7 30.2 19.231,440 45,000 13,560 1,182 2,391 5,288 28.7 27.7 17.3 16.3

All Sections : 108,000 45,000 37,600 - - - 2,333 1,878.6 35.1 47.2 27.1 19.0 Tous troncons

Total/total: 224,238

1/ Average daily traffic/Trafic journalier cayen2/ Economic return/Taux de rentabilite3/ First year benefit/Taux de rentabilite immediate4/ The difference between financial and economic ctsts is due te taxes and import duties/ La difference entre

cout financier et cout ectnomique est basee sur impots et droits d'importation.

Sources: Etudes de Modernisation du Reseau Routier, 2 e Tranche, Recardet SAUTI-S.G.E.E.Modernisation des Routes, STUDI-BCEOM, October 1974Modernisation des Routes, SETEC-SOTUETEC, February 1975

Mission Estimates/Estimation de la mission


Table/Tableau l4

APPRAISAL OF EVAIUATION D'UN


TUNISIA TUNISIE

Results of Sensitivity Analyses of Cost and Benefit 3treams

Resultats des tests de sensibilité des couts et benefices

Assumptions Economic }1ypothèsesReturn (%)/

Total Costs of Total Taux de Couts totaux BeneficesConstruction Y/ Benefits rentabilite de construction totaux

Best Estimate Best Estimate 33.2 Estimation meilleure Estimation meilleureBest Estimate 15% Increase 36.8 Estimation meilleure Hausse de 15%Best Estimate 25% Increase 39.0 Estimation meilleure Hausse de 25%Best Estimate 15% Decrease 29.6 Estimation meilleure Baisse de 15%Best Estimate 25% Decrease 26.7 Estimation meilleure Baisse de 25%15% Increase Best Estimate 30.1 Hausse de 15% Estimation meilleure25% Increase Best Estimate 28.3 Hausse de 25% Estimation meilleure15% Decrease Best Estimate 37.4 Baisse de 15% Estimation meilleure25% Decrease Best Estimate 4o.9 Baisse de 25% Estimation meilleure

- Total of road improvement program consisting of Mornaghia-Medjez El Bab (GP5),Beja-Jendouba (GP6), Tunis-Bizerte (GP8), Hammamet-Korba (MC 27 and MC 28),El Jem, Sousse and Sfax bypasses./ Le programme total des ameliorations comprendMornaghia-Medjez El Bab (GP5), Beja-Jendouba (GP6), Tunis-Bizertel (GP8), Hammamet-Korba (MC 27 and MC 28), El Jem, Sousse and Sfax deviation.



Table/Tableau 15



TUNISIA TUNISIE

Average Vehicle Operating Costs 1

Coûts moyens d'explotation des vehicules(D 0.001/km)

Vehicles/Voitures

Trucks with loading Trucks with loadingCapacity 4 3.5 t Capacity > 3.5 t

Speed/Vitesse Passenger Cars Vans Camions a,ec charge Camions avec charge Trailers Buses(km/h) Voitures privées Camionettes utile 3.5 t utile 3.5 t Remorques Autobus

24 44.85 45.39 85.64 107.91 145.22 215.31

32 42.25 42.45 74.86 90.66 126.91 185.79

40 40.64 40.78 68.76 81.29 118.67 169.61

48 39.97 40.20 65.57 76.27 115.87 160.38

56 39.82 40.10 63.74 73.89 116.88 155.28

64 40.01 40.52 63.24 73.53 120.58 153.75

72 40.42 41.12 63.31 74.54 126.71 154.16

80 40.97 41.90 64.16 77.58 136.15 157.53

88 41.72 42.97 66.04 82.90 149.41 163.28

96 42.79 44.37 68,93 90.85 163.72 170.44

104 44.40 46.47 72.66 - - -

112 46.75 49.49 -

t/ On a level paved highway in good condition/Sur chaussée revêtue à niveau et en bonne condition.

2/ The typical vehicles are (i) mid-sized European passenger car with gasoline engine; (ii) mid-sizedEuropean van with diesel engine; (iii) American truck with diesel engine; and (iv) American andEuropean buses with diesel engines/Les voitures typiques sont (i) voiture privée europeene avec dimensionmoyenne et moteur d'essence; (ii) camionette européene avec dimension moyenne et moteur du gas-oil;(iii) camion americaine avec moteur du gas-oil; et (iv) autobus americaines et européenes avec desmoteurs du gas-oil.

Source: Ministry of Public Works/Ministère de l'Equipement


APPRAISAL OF EVALUATION D' UN

A SECOND HIGHNWAY PROJECT DEUXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Ayerage Characteristics of Typical Vehicles

Caractéristiques moyennes des voitures typiques

1/ priC -/ 3/ Vehicle L3fe Tire Life Annual Vebicle Fuel Consumption -4/Typial ehice -priesx rec (Tsars) Durée de vte Riloletrage (Lirers/IQO km)Typical Vehicle - Fris Pris Nvmber of Tires Durée de vie de de pneu Kilométrage Consozmation de carburantVoiture typique (D) (D) Nombre des pneus voiture (Année) (lm e 000) annuel de voiture (Litres/lOO ks)

Passenger car 1,230 11.5 4 10.0 50 18,000 8 Voiture privée

Van 1,520 15.3 4 8.0 50 25,000 10 Camionette

Truck (loading 3,127 36.6 6 6.5 60 65,000 21 Camion (avec chargecapacity C.3.5 t) utile 3.5 t)

Truck (loading 6,177 73.0 6 6.0 60 70,000 31 Camion (avee chargecspacity>3.5 t) utile 3.5 t)

Trailer 6,619 66.1 14 6.0 60 60,000 48 Remorque

Bus 13,767 80.5 6 6.0 60 60,000 36 Autobus

l/ The typical vehicles are (i) mid-sized European passenger car with gasoline engine; (ii) mid-sized Europeanvan with diesel engine; (iii) American trucks vith diesel engines; (iv) American and European buses withdiesel engines/Les voitures typiques sont (i) voiture privée européene avec dimension moyenne et moteur d'essence;(ii) casionette européene avec dimension moyenne et moteur du gas-oil; (iii) camions americaines avec moteursdu gas-oil, et (iv) autobus americatnes et européenes avec moteurs du gas-oil.

2/ Average 1973 price excluding tires and taxes/1973 prix moyen sans pneu et hors taxes.

3/ Average 1973 price excluding tires/1973 prix moyen sans pneus.

4/ On a level, paved highway in good condition, at average speeds of 80 lm/h for passenger cars, 64 km/h forvans, 56 km/h for trucks, 40 km/h for trailers, and 64 km/h for buses /Sur chaussée revêtue a niveau et enbonne condition avec de la vitesse moyenne de 80 km/h pour voitures privées, 64 km/h pour camionettes,56 km/h pour camions, 40 km/h pour remorques, et 64 km/h pour autobus

Source: Ministry of Public Works and Mission Estimates/Ministère de l'Equipement et Estimation de la Mission


t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~< -'

ANNEX APage 1

APPRAISAL OF


TUNISIA

Transport Regulations, 1968 Transport Survey and Proposed Rural Roads Program

A. Main Improvements in Regulations Proposed by MTC

1. Replacement of the existing five truck categories of publictransport, which limit the type of products transported andthe zone in which trucks can be used, by two categories, i.e.one category with no zonal restrictions and another one withzonal restrictions;

abolishment of regulations restricting owners of light trucksto the transport of their own goods;

abolishment of regulations restricting the use of trailersby farmers to a distance of 35 km; and

provision of transport of persons by small vehicles in orto remote areas, which presently lack such a facility (thisprovision may require a Government subsidy).

B. Concept and Scope of the Updating of the 1968 Transport Survey

2. The main purpose of this updating is to strengthen transport co-ordination and planning. In addition, important changes of national policiesand strategies affec,ting the transport system since 1970, will be incorporated.The updating will concentrate on the main issues and include the following:

(i) a coordinated effort on the part of the various Governmentagencies concerned with transport matters to collect all avail-able data and reports on transport in Tunisia;

(ii) the preparation of forecasts of total demand for freight andpassenger transport in Tunisia;

(iii) the preparation of estimates of future movements of freigntand passengers by mode based on the above item (ii) and astructure and level of prices and costs for transport services;

(iv) the review of compensation policies and payments by Governmentfor services of various modes of transport are required toprovide as a result of an imposed public duty;

ANNEX APage 2

(v) the establishment of coordination policies and measures toensure sound coordination and cooperation among the variouspublic organizations involved in transport matters includingclearly defined lines of authority;

(vi) the introduction of a transport investment analysis system,making available to all levels involved in investment de-cisions the methods and criteria required for rational al-location of resources and the determination of investmentpriorities in the transport sector;

(vii) the identification of specific problems to be analyzed at alater date and related technical assistance requireements;and

(viii) the identification of training requirements in the varioussub-sectors.

3. The proposed project would provide about 70 man-months of consultingservices over a period of two years to assist MTC staff in the updating ofthe 1968 Transport Survey. The MTC staff would consist of a minimum of fourexperts to be trained on the job in the areas of transport planning and eco-nomics and to be assembled as soon as possible after the conmencement of theproposed project. The staff would be expected to be able te continue theirtasks upon departure of the consultants.

C. Concept and Scope of the Rural Roads Program

4. The main purpose of this program, which will consist of a pilotproject (Phase I) and, possibly, a follow-up project (Phase II), is to identifyand prepare rural roads for improvement or construction in areas where theirinadequacy is an obstacle to agricultural development.

5. The total of about 110 man-months of consulting services providedfor under the proposed highway improvement project is to assist the Ministryof Public Work. in preparing the pilot project and, upon satisfactory pre-paration of this project and with the Bank's approval, the follow-up project.The pilot project would cover six zones, believed to be representative of theentire country from a climatic, environmental, socio-economic, etc. point ofview.

6. The satisfactory preparation of the pilot project will depend onappropriate coordination and cooperation between the Ministry of Public Worksand various other ministries such as the Ministry of Planning, the Ministryof Agriculture, the Ministry of Transport and Communications, and theMinistry of Interior. For instance, it will be necessary to examine andcoordinate the rural roads program with national development: plans prepared'by the Ministry of Planning, sectoral plans prepared by the Ministry of Agri-culture and, possibly, other plans by other government organizations. Tofacilitate this coordination and cooperation. the Government: will organize ahigh level Coordination Committee consisting of representatives of the variousconcerned ministries.

ANNEX APage 3

7. In addition, in preparing the rural roads program, the Governmentshall review nationil aend sectoral policies and strategies relating to:

M() the distribution of potential benefits for an improved ruralroads infrastructure (e.g., through taxation measures);

(il) the establishment of agro-based industries;

(iii) resettlement ("programme de regroupement de la population");and

(iv) land tenure.

December 1975

f

ANNEX BPage 1

APPRAISAL OF


TUNISIA

Transportation Projects Previously Financed by the Bank

1. Loan S2-TUN, 1969, Republic of Tunisia, Highways, US$0.8 million.This project consisted of engineering studies of highways included in thefirst highway project. It has been satisfactorily completed.

2. Loan 746-TUN, 1971, Republic of Tunisia, Highways, US$24.0 million.Major components of this project are:

(i) construction and improvement of 274 km of primary and secondaryroads;

(ii) resurfacing and rehabilitation of 1,920 km of paved roads;

(iii) reconstruction of 51 bridges and culverts;

(iv) provision of consultants to assist in the reorganizaition andstrengthening of maintenance operations;

(v) provision of consultants to study the possible improvement of350 km of roads;

(vi) provision of consultants to assist in institutional :Lmprovements;

(vii) provision of consultants to study the system of road user taxa-tion; and

(viii) refinancing of Highway Engineering Studies, Ln. S2-TUN.

The project originally included the Tunis-Turki highway as a three-lane facility..A study showed that to accommodate the unanticipated rapid increase in traffica four-lane highway was necessary. In view of the increase in total projectcosts there were insufficient funds for the enhanced facility, the three-laneroad between Tunis and Turki has therefore been excluded from t:his project withBoard approval and is expected to be financed by the Kuwait Fund.

3. Loan 606/Credit 150-TUN, 1969, SNCFT, Railways, US$17.0 million.Major components of this project are:

(i) 352 km track renewal of four main lines and branch lines andbranch lines in the southern mining area;

(ii) purchase of locomotives, rolling stock and spare parts;

ANNEX BPage 2

(iii) improvement of workshops; and

(iv) provision of consultants to assist in general management,cost accounting, and the management of locomotives and rol-ling stock, stations and workshops.

The project was delayed by about two years due to the disastrous floods of1969 and 1971 and shortages of funds resulting from slow payments by therailway's principal customer (SFAX/GAFSA Phosphate Co.) prior to 1973, whenthe Government assumed the debts of the phosphate company. All procurementfor the project is completed and deliveries of remaining rolling stock areexpected shortly. Relaying of track is substantially completed and the proj-ect should be completed by the end of December 1975.

4. Loan 724-TUN, 1971, Societe Tunisienne de l'Electricite et du Gaz,Gas Pipeline, US$7.5 million. Major components of this project are:

(i) procurement and installation of 4.1 km of 12-3/4 inch pipe totransport wet gas from the SITEP production center (El Borma)to a compression and treatment plant;

(ii) procurement and installation of approximately 3,300 h.p. ofgas engine driven compressors including necessary controlsand ancillary facilities;

(iii) procurement and installation of facilities to remove condens-able gasoline fractions from the gas;

(iv) procurement.and installation of ancillary facilities such asoperating buildings and employee housing, at the compressionand treatment center;

(v) procurement and installation of 292 km of 10-3/4 inch trans-mission pipeline (El Borma-Cabes); and

(vi) procurement and installation of sales laterals from thetransmission line to industries in the neighborhood of Gabes.

The project has been satisfactorily completed.

5. Loan 380-TUN, 1964, Republic of Tunisia, Port, US$7.0 million.Major components of this project are:

(i) dredging anç refilling at La Goulette;

(ii) resiting of a fishing channel, relocation of the Easternstretch of the Tunis-La Goulette road, and the constructionof two bridges over the new fishing channel;

ANNEX BPage 3

(iii) construction of two additional berths for general cargo atLa Goulette;

(iv) construction of 9.7 km of three and four-lane roads and thepavement of 140,000 square meters of open storage facilitiesinside the port of La Goulette;

(v) provision of drainage, water mains, fire hydrants, sewersand electrical distribution cables inside the port of LaGoulette;

(vi) construction of seven transit sheds and an administrationbuilding inside the port of La Goulette; and

(vii) provision of consultants to design and supervise the con-struction of the project, to perform traffic studies, toassist in the cargo handling and customs procedures, toprepare port charges structure and rates, to prepare cost-ing and financial systems, and to train accounting andstatistical staff of the port office.


6. Loan 573-TUN, 1969, Office des Ports Nationaux Tunisiens, Port,US$8.5 million. Major components of this project are:

(i) dredging to increase the depth and width in entrance channelsand approaches and along aide bulk facilities at La Goulette,Sfax, and Bizerte, to permit access of larger bulk oil and orecarriers;

(ii) provision of a small suction dredger and attendant tug formaintenance of ports managed by the Office des Ports NationauxTunisiens (OPNT);

(iii) provision of cargo handling equipment of Tunis-La Gouletteand Sfax;

(iv) restoration of the island breakwater at Bizerte to insureadequate protection inside the harbor;

(v) provision of a new bulk-grain berth and storage installationon the south side of La Goulette harbor;

(vi) training of OPNT staff in accounting and financial managementand provision of accounting consultants; and

(vii) provision of engineering consultants to assist OPNT in theexecution of the project.


December 1975

ANNEX C

APPRAISAL OF


TUNISIA

Highway Improvements

1. Bypasses on GP1. The primary road GP1 extends from Tunis south-ward to the Libyan Border and is the main north-south link in the east ofTunisia. Two-lane bypasses with 7.00 m carriageway and 3.00 m wide shoulderswill be constructed for the urban centers of Sousse (33.3 km) El-Djem (3.2 km)and Sfax (8.0 km). The design speed is 100 km/h.

2. GP5: Mornaghia-Medjez-el-Bab Road (38.2 km). The road sectionfrom Mornaghia to Medjez-el-Bab on GP5 is the continuation of the sectionTunis-Mornaghia (Exit Tunis West) which is presently constructed to four-lanestandards and financed under the First Highway Project. The road runs throughrolling terrain and is presently geometrically and structurally inadequatefor the traffic it carries. The narrow pavement (5.00-6.00 m) has beendamaged by truck traffic beyond the recourse of normal maintenance. The carri-ageway will be strengthened and the road will have a width of 6.00 m over itsentire length with 3.00 m wide shoulders. The design speed is 100 km/h.

3. GP6: Beja-Jendouba Road (46.2 km). The existing road runs throughrolling terrain, has a weak and narrow carriageway and sub-standard sightdistances. The road will be improved to a 7.00 m wide facility, with strength-ened pavement and 3.00 m wide shoulders. Over a length of 4.4 km, the alignmentwill be changed to improve sight distances. The design speed is 100 km/h.

4. GP8: Tunis-Bizerte Road (57.7 km). The road consists of two parts:a section of 10.1 km from Ariana, north of Tunis, to the junction with MC31and a 46.6 km long section from this junction to Bizerte. The road traversesrolling and flat terrain, has two dangerous curves and generally inadequatesight distances. About 6 km have a carriageway width of 5 m only. The existingroad crosses the Medjerda River by an ancient bridge which is structurallyinadequate for heavy traffic. The road will be upgraded to a modern two-lanehighway with a 7.00 m wide carriageway, 3.00 m wide shoulders, with improvedgeometric characteristics and riding surface and a new Medjerda River bridgethus providing a reliable link between Tunis and Bizerte. The design speedis 100 km/h.

5. MC28/MC27: Hammamet-Korba Road (37.7 km). The existing road runsalong the southeastern shore of the Cap Bon peninsula through flat terrain.It starts at the junction with GP1, west of Hammamet, passes through the touristcenters of Hammamet, Nabeul and Beni Khiar to Korba. The widths of the existingcarriageway varies between 5.00 and 6.00 m. The road will be upgraded to amodern highway with a 7.00 m carriagevay and 3.00 m wide shoulders and willbypass Hammamet, Nabeul and Beni Khiar. The design speed is 80 km/h.

December -1975

.i.;' D

APPRAISAL OF

A 3ECOND HIGHW.iAY PROJECT

TUN ISIA

Price Escalation Factors for Project 3lements

Factor 01. Sousse Bypass

Construction starts early 1976 with 50e of workscarried out each in 1976 and 1977 32.0

2. El-Djem Bypass

Construction is carried out during 1976 2h.0

3. Sfax Bypass

Construction starts early 1976 with 50% of workscarried out each in 1976 and 1977 32.0

h. Mornaghra-I4edjez-el-Bab Road

Construction starts late 1976 with 10$ of workscarried out in 1976, 80% in 1977 and 10% in1978 40.9

,. Beja-Jendouba Road

Construction starts late 1977 Twith 10% of workscarried out in 1977 and 90p in 1978 55.53

6. Tunis-Bizerte Road

Construction starts in early 1977 with h0% ofworks carried out in 1977, 50p in 1978 and 10%in 1979 0 .0

7. Hammamet-Korba Road

Construction starts early 1976 with 50%carried out each in 1976 and 1977 32.0

8. Consulting Services

3tudies start mid-1976 with 30% of workscarried out in 1976, 50',Z in 1977 and 20% in 1978 36.8

Source: Mission Estimates


8097910 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~I7 96 97178 1999

7. 990660~~07 2.7197îo7o97.o9.0.o..,97 70920929792099.o67 . 4 î . . 3. 4. 1. 2. 1. 4. 1.12 3 4.~ ~ * '

2. LdI . ~t _ _ __ _ __ _ __ -

2.07 99211.10 S 97 .6

Sf- B~~~ ... 2.07o .........

3.03 id/.9~9993 77, 9.967

3.05 1010. 7, .00

720229199 S,,........ ...

5. 078, 909. 6.923. .0779729 381279029e 99 C00700,997 -……

0.92 79 .172.99 Le cc9, B.9k7

7.020200 8 ..9.2

4.02 78q -d0910 f 77,326

d.. C-pl~~.7 291.-90 d. 2087 070, 9296-

67-. 9n 77d. 30. 20

4.74 009727 f dr9 707-0.290900992 97 o090

4.3f d992070.1r91, M 7, 909999-090900 0,.

5.09 010-71292 90 12910081299500 7,09090. 26 -…4--- - - -

ANNEK F

APPRAISAL OF EVALUATION D'UNA SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT D_UXIEME PROJET ROUTIER

TUNISIA TUNISIE

Estimated Schedule of Disbursements

Calendrier estimatif des décaissements

IBRD Fiscal Cumulative Disbursements atYear and Quarter end of Quarter

Exercice et trimestre de Décaissements cumules aux finsl'exercise de la BIRD de trimestre

(uS$tooo)

1975/76

March 31, 1976June 30, 1976 2,000

1976/77

September 30, 1976 4,000December 31,t 1976 5,000March 31, 1977 7,200June 30, 1977 9,400

1977/78

September 30, 1977 12,600December 31, 1977 14,800March 31, 1978 16,900June 30, 1978 19,000

1978/79

September 30, 1978 20,500December 31; 1978 22,100March 31, 1979 23,700June 30, 1979 25,300

1979/80

September 30, 1979 27.800December 31, 1979 28;000

Source: Mission estimates/Estimation de la Mission


APPRAISAL OFA SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

TUNISIAORGANIZATION OF THE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC WORKS

AND HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION

MINISTER

UNDERSEC OFl OR FS

OTHER DIRECTORATES PUBIC WORKS

ADMINISTRATIVE SPECIAL STUDIES

SUBtDIVISO VIES,M l

HEADOUARTER DIVISIONS

ORGANIZ AT[ION

AND DESIGN CONSTRUCTION LABORATORY EQUIPMENT

METHODS

FILL DIVISIONS

g I I II I I TUNlS IZRESOUSSE SFAX KEFGAE

18 FIELD SUBDIVISIONS

December/DeCembre 1975 Wor,d B-nk-IS19

IBRD 11734AUGUST 1975

8 ;° TUNISIA

SECOND HGHWAY PROJECT/I/Éfre l tfe r r a n e a n Se a ` HIGHWAY NETWORK AND

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

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Second Highway Project Tunisia - World Bank · 2000. 8. 23. · valent with a foreign exchange...

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