Sebastian Tibenham and Richard Cook, Pegasus Group
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Transcript of Sebastian Tibenham and Richard Cook, Pegasus Group
Merseyside Development Update
Sebastian Tibenham & Richard Cook
Overview of the City Region Economy
• 1.5million peoplePopulation
• 628,000 jobsEmployment
• £29.5billionEconomic
output
Challenges for the City Region
◦ Population growth
◦ Entrepreneurship
◦ Skills
◦ Employment growth
◦ Productivity
◦ Delivering a Strategic Planning Framework
◦ Strategic Housing & Employment Land Market Assessment
Job Growth Scenarios, 2012-37
Scenario 1
(SHELMA
Baseline)
Scenario 2
(SHELMA
Growth)
Scenario 3
(Pegasus High
Growth)
0.3%
p.a.
0.7%
p.a.
0.9%
p.a.53,000 jobs
127,000 jobs
160,000 jobs
LCR Annual Housing Requirement
• RSS planned from 2003-21 (revoked)
• Only Knowsley & Sefton up to date Local Plans + allocate sites
• Council evidence shows highest need
• SHELMA: GL Hearn for LCR
• Government’s Standard Calc: Right Homes in the Right Places.
• Standard Calc based on Household Projections and uplifts on affordability.
• 2,024 = Av. completions since 2012/13
• 3,420 = starts in 2016-17
Liverpool
• RSS - Regional Centre focus (net fig)
• UDP planned up to 2001 and for 23k homes but demolition of 27k
• Emerging Local Plan someway off
• SHELMA and Standard not far apart
• City Council have been delivering average of c.1,400 dpa since 2003
• Completed 2,029 in 2015/16
• Other LPAs may have to pick up slack
• Demonstrates importance of LCR Plan
Sefton
• RSS restricted supply (lowest).
• Local Plan adopted Apr 17 (highest)
• Allocates some sites / GB release but..
• ..immediate review still necessary.
• Affordability critical issue.
• Hence Standard Calc closer to recently adopted figure
• SHELMA shows much lower figure
Knowsley
• Recently Adopted Plan Jan 2016.
• Inspector’s comments on low figure:
• + out-migration partly due to limited housing choice;
• + elderly population,
• Significant consequences:
• loss of spending power
• slower growth of local businesses
• extra pressure on health services.
• Local Plan identifies GB housing sites!
Halton
• Local Plan adopted 2013
• Applied RSS figure with some backlog
• Doesn’t identify sites.
• No completion data 15/16 & 16/17
• Failed to deliver?
• 375 Av. Between 03/04 to 14/15
• Carried out GB Study in 2015
St Helens
• Local Plan adopted Oct 2012
• Post NPPF but RSS wasn’t revoked
• Didn’t identify sites
• Draft LP welcomed
• GB release + good quantum of safeguarded land
Wirral
• Unitary Development Plan (2000)
• Housing Policies not saved
• Emerging Local Plan someway off
• Previous Draft focus on W.Waters
• Council’s evidence (875-1235 dpa)
• 340 = Av. Completions since 03/04;
• Affluent areas / Affordability issues
• Deprived areas / Regeneration
• Green Belt release required
Pegasus thoughts for LCR◦ Very excited about the prospects within the LCR and potential for our new office
◦ Devolution Deal = handback control, effective spending, fast-track growth?!
◦ Mayor’s Success = economic growth and quality of life?!
◦ Access to jobs and good quality housing
◦ Strategic Planning Role = Difficult Political Decisions
◦ Draft LCR SHELMA presents lowest housing requirement figures (ever)
◦ 1.1% jobs growth up to 2026 but 0.3% thereafter
Seb Tibenham / Richard Cook
Suite 4b, 113 Portland Street, Manchester, M1 6DW
E [email protected] / [email protected]
T 0161 393 3399